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    Is A 14 Days Quarantine Right Or Wrong?
    Is A 14 Days Quarantine Right Or Wrong?
    Is A 14 Days Quarantine Right Or Wrong?
    Ebook409 pages2 hours

    Is A 14 Days Quarantine Right Or Wrong?

    By Rock Stone

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    About this ebook

    Now, the novel coronavirus COVID-19 is spreading from China to Italy, Spain and almost the whole Europe; in the meantime, to the United States, to the whole world. All governments in the world are fighting against this virus, everyone in the world is fighting against this virus. In these days of this pandemic, what to do, how to do, your government probably already told you, but the more you know, the better you can do in this fighting.

    This book will tell you the following results from the analysis of the 283 COVID-19 cases:

    1. Is the length of current quarantine right or wrong?
    2. What is the incubation period of the coronavirus COVID-19?
    3. Is it true that a released person from quarantine is not a risk?
    4. Is the sex, age of a person a factor affecting the infection of the virus?
    5. What are the typical symptoms of the disease of COVID-19?
    6. Is there any patient tested positive but has no symptom at all?
    7. How many tests should be performed to guarantee no patient carrying the virus is misdiagnosed?
    8. Can a "normal" person who was tested negative and with no symptom infect other healthy people?

    You can go over these questions again at any time while you are reading this book.

    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherRock Stone
    Release dateApr 1, 2020
    ISBN9781393933595
    Is A 14 Days Quarantine Right Or Wrong?
    Author

    Rock Stone

    After years working in the field of Biotechnology and pharmaceutical, Rock Stone has started writing since 2017. He currently lives in California.

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      Is A 14 Days Quarantine Right Or Wrong? - Rock Stone

      Description

      Now, the novel coronavirus COVID-19 is spreading from China to Italy, Spain and almost the whole Europe; in the meantime, to the United States, to the whole world. All governments in the world are fighting against this virus, everyone in the world is fighting against this virus. In these days of this pandemic, what to do, how to do, your government probably already told you, but the more you know, the better you can do in this fighting.

      This book will tell you the following results from the analysis of the 283 COVID-19 cases:

      Is the length of current quarantine right or wrong?

      What is the incubation period of the coronavirus COVID-19?

      Is it true that a released person from quarantine is not a risk?

      Is the sex, age of a person a factor affecting the infection of the virus?

      What are the typical symptoms of the disease of COVID-19?

      Is there any patient tested positive but has no symptom at all?

      How many tests should be performed to guarantee no patient carrying the virus is misdiagnosed?

      Can a normal person who was tested negative and with no symptom infect other healthy people?

      You can go over these questions again at any time while you are reading this book.

      Preface

      As you already know that the current outbreak of the novel coronavirus, the pneumonia COVID-19 is ongoing from China to the United States, and to the whole world. The current quarantine length is 14 days which is based on the incubation period of the virus.

      What is incubation period?

      The description of incubation period from WHO (World Health Organization) on 09 Mar 2020 is:

      The ‘incubation period’ means the time between catching the virus and beginning to have symptoms of the disease. Most estimates of the incubation period for COVID-19 range from 1-14 days, most commonly around five days. These estimates will be updated as more data become available.

      What is the quarantine period?

      The description of quarantine and incubation from CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) is:

      Quarantine means separating a person or group of people who have been exposed to a contagious disease but have not developed illness (symptoms) from others who have not been exposed, in order to prevent the possible spread of that disease. Quarantine is usually established for the incubation period of the communicable disease, which is the span of time during which people have developed illness after exposure. For COVID-19, the period of quarantine is 14 days from the last date of exposure, because 14 days is the longest incubation period seen for similar coronaviruses. Someone who has been released from COVID-19 quarantine is not considered a risk for spreading the virus to others because they have not developed illness during the incubation period.

      Both the descriptions for the incubation period of COVID-19 from WHO and CDC are either an estimate, or the longest incubation period seen for similar coronavirus, not the actual incubation of COVID-19?

      What is the actual incubation period for the coronavirus COVID-19?

      Is the length of the quarantine right or long enough?

      Is it true that a released person from quarantine is not a risk?

      In order to find out the answers, I started collecting and then analyzing the related data from Guangdong province, China in which the outbreak started in January 2020. So, this book is actually a report of an analysis to the data of 283 COVID-19 cases. Its objective of the analysis is to try to find out the actual incubation period of the virus, and hope to provide some useful information to the governments and any authorities for their reference while they are making decisions.

      *** Be aware that: I am not a medical professional, not a virology researcher, not an employee of any government. Here, I do not intend to tell you what to do, or how to do to prevent the disease from infection of the virus. Instead, I just want to tell you the results of this analysis, and the data analysis is just for reference only. Therefore, I do not, and will not take any responsibility for errors or omissions of this book, or for damages resulting from the use of the information contained herein.

      Study of Incubation Period of Coronavirus COVID-19

      -—An Analysis of 283 COVID-19 Cases from Eleven Cities of Guangdong Province, China

      Summary

      The outbreak of the coronavirus COVID-19 worldwide currently is ongoing. CDC of the United States is implementing the 14-day quarantine on the persons who might be exposed to the virus. It is based on 14 days is the longest incubation period seen for similar coronaviruses, not the incubation of coronavirus COVID-19. (Please check the description of the quarantine period in CDC website).  I understand that we currently don’t have sufficient data to identify the actual incubation of the virus, but incorrect quarantine period could be harmful and disastrous to the public. Therefore, this study is to dig deeper and try to find out more information on the incubation period.

      In this study, a total of 283 confirmed cases of COVID-19 was collected; among them, 218 cases with information related to the incubation period were analyzed. The result is surprising:

      34.40% of the cases analyzed are with an incubation period of 15-39 days. That is a very high percentage that we cannot neglect. 

      That means, more than 34% of the quarantined persons who may still be infectious will go back to the communities after their quarantine, and they will continue to spread the disease to their families, co-workers, and other people.

      Therefore, I suggest that the CDC and any government authorities may reconsider to extend the quarantine period to a minimum of 21 days, and even up to 30 days on the safer side.

      Objectives

      The objective of this study is to find out the actual incubation period of coronavirus COVID-19 by collecting and analyzing the data of the COVID-19 cases; and hope to provide some useful information to the governments and any authorities, and hope they can re-evaluate the length of the quarantine.

      Method

      This study focused on the confirmed cases of COVID-19 occurred in Guangdong Province, China. There were a total of 1332 confirmed cases at the end of the data collection on 2/20/2020. The data or the confirmed cases were collected in eleven metropolis cities in Guangdong Province, China. The original sources of the data were mainly from the press releases of Health Department of Guangdong Government and the cities’ government posted in their official websites; other sources came from websites of major newspapers of Guangdong, and / or the local newspapers from 1/21/2020 to 2/20/2020.

      After the collection of the data, the incubation period was determined before translating the data from Chinese to English based on the travel history, infection history and exposure history of each patient. The English version of the data was verified by comparing to the Chinese version.

      Determination of the cities where the data was collected.

      To order to get a clearer and simple travel history and infection history of the COVID-19 patients to determine the actual or more accurate incubation period, this study did not include the confirmed cases of the disease in the huge Metropolis, for example, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, due to their complexity with high concentration of population, high concentration of transportation, high concentration of activities, much more interaction among people. These factors would make the determination of the patients’ infection history more difficult and almost impossible. Therefore, this study collected data only from mid-size metropolis with 10 to 70 COVID-19 confirmed cases. These mid-size metropolis are more suburb cities or towns, with smaller population, less traffic, lese movement of human, meaning less cross-infection. The advantage of these mid-size metropolis in this study is that the infection history of the patient is very simple without exposure in multiple locations.

      Therefore, the following eleven metropolises (cities) were selected:

      Huizhou, Zhaoqing, Shantou, Jiangmen, Zhanjiang, Meizhou, Maoming, Yangjiang, Qingyuan, Shaoguan, and Zhongshan. The population and area of these eleven cities are listed in Table X, comparing to Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

      Determination of the beginning day of the incubation period

      Based on the fact that Wuhan, the largest metropolis in Hubei Province and Hubei Province have been the epicenter of the COVID-19, people living or travelling in Wuhan or Hubei Province had much more chances of being infected in Hubei than in other areas of China, the beginning day of the incubation period is determined as following:

      ❖  For patients traveled from Wuhan, and / or other cities in Hubei Province to Guangdong Province, this study will take their departure date as the beginning day of the incubation. But be aware that the actual infection date may be earlier than the departure date;

      ❖  For patients traveled from Guangdong to Hubei Province, take the mid-point of the period visiting Hubei Province, for example, visiting Wuhan during 1/20/2020 to 1/25/2020, then take 1/22/2020 as the infection date or the beginning day of the incubation.

      ❖  For patients without travelling to and from Hubei, the beginning day of the incubation is the day that they made close contact with a confirmed or suspected patient.

      Determination of the end date of the incubation period

      ❖  The date the patient began showing the symptoms of COVID-19.

      ❖  If the infection history didn’t describe any symptom, take the date when a swab sample from the patient was taken for testing; or the date the case was confirmed as COVID-19 patient as the end day of incubation.

      Type of patients

      ❖  Type 1: Visitor From Hubei:

      Patient who has lived or worked in Wuhan City and Other Cities in Hubei Province before traveling from Hubei to Guangdong Province;

      ❖  Type2: Other Visitor:

      Patient who has lived and worked in other areas of China except Guangdong and Hubei Provinces, or who stopped at Hubei briefly before traveling to Guangdong Province;

      ❖  Type3: Visitor to Hubei:

      Patient who lives in Guangdong, but went to Hubei for visiting, then came back to Guangdong;

      ❖  Type 4: Guangdong Resident:

      Patient who lives and works in Guangdong, had no travel history, but had close contact with other confirmed or suspected patient(s) in local area of Guangdong.

      Results and Discussions

      Results: Incubation Period

      A total of 283 confirmed cases of COVID-19 was collected, (please see Table 8 and Table 9 for the data at the end of this report). Among these 283 cases, only 218 cases had information of the patient’s travel or exposure history, so their incubation period could be determined, and be used in this analysis; the remaining 65 cases were not included in the incubation analysis due to lack of the patient’s travel/exposure history. However, the data from those 65 cases can be used in analysis for other factors, for example, the age, sex, symptoms of the patients, etc.

      Table

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