Ashley Haydock 12/20/12 Research Topics: My research focuses on developing a time-based weighted support vector machine prognostic algorithm

for the remaining useful life estimation of a historic masonry monument, Fort Sumter. In recent years, a significant amount of research has been directed towards the development of prognostic methodologies predicting the future condition of an engineering system to assist condition based maintenance. However, these methods, possessing potential to further the structural health management of engineering systems, have yet to be applied to historic masonry.

Figure 1. Benefit of prognostic techniques incorporated into condition based maintenance to extend a systems remaining useful life (RUL) (EI-Tawil et al., 2011).

I will develop a weighted support vector regression prognostic technique that allows increased importance of data points closer to the prediction window with the intent of improving predictions for application to simulated data from an ANSYS finite element model of a historic masonry casement within Fort Sumter (Figure 2). Parametric studies will then be performed to compare the prediction accuracy of several shapes of weighting functions to maximize the potential of this unique weighted support vector regression approach in predicting the behavior of Fort Sumter.

Figure 2. Finite element model of the Fort Sumter casement for prognostic application.

My thesis will contribute to the knowledge base by providing an evaluation of existing prognostic techniques for their adaptability to historic masonry structures as well as a discussion of the challenges in this application. In addition, a unique weighted support vector regression prognostic algorithm will be

Ashley Haydock 12/20/12 introduced in application to a historic masonry fortification, Fort Sumter with recommendations for maximizing the potential of this prognostic algorithm. References EI-Tawil, K., Kadry, S., Jaoude, A., Noura, H., and Ouladsine, M. 2011. Analytic Prognostic for Petrochemical Pipelines, Journal of Mechanical Engineering Research, 3(3): 64-74.