Poisson Distribution Uses

The Poisson distribution is particularly useful because there is only one parameter, , to consider. When the average number of occurrences is known, then probabilities may be calculated on which decisions may be based. For example, if the average number of emergency surgeries per day is 2.5 then the probability that there will be zero is: e^(-2.5) 2.5^0 / 0! = 0.082 1 / 1 (2.5^0 = 1 and 0! = 1) = 0.082 The probability that there will be four emergency surgeries is e^(-2.5) 2.5^4 / 4! = 0.082 39.063 / 24 = 0.134 The same method is used to calculate the probability for other numbers. Knowing what the probability of each number of operations is allows managers to plan for eventualities: if there is a legal requirement, for example, that a hospital theater must be able to cope with admissions 99% of the time, then their capacity plan must reflect this.