DAFTAR ISI

Halaman

ABSTRAK ................................................................................................... i
ABSTRACT ................................................................................................. ii
DAFTAR ISI................................................................................................. iii
DAFTAR GAMBAR ................................................................................... v
DAFTAR TABEL ....................................................................................... vi
DAFTAR LAMPIRAN ............................................................................... vii
BAB I
1.1
1.2

PENDAHULUAN ..................................................................... 1
Latar Belakang ............................................................................ 1
Tujuan.......................................................................................... 1

BAB II

TINJAUAN PUSTAKA ............................................................ 2

2.1
2.2
2.2.1
2.2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.5.1
2.5.2
2.5.3
2.6
2.6.1
2.6.2
2.7

Peramalan.................................................................................... 2
Pola Permintaan.......................................................................... 2
Pola Trend................................................................................... 3
Pola Musiman............................................................................. 3
Metode Peramalan...................................................................... 4
Metode Time Series..................................................................... 5
Metode Exponential Smoothing ................................................. 6
Metode Single Exponential Smoothing....................................... 6
Metode Double Exponential Smoothing .................................... 6
Metode Adaptive Exponential Smoothing................................... 7
Ukuran Akurasi Peramalan......................................................... 7
Mean Absolut Deviation (MAD)................................................. 7
Mean Square Deviation (MSD)................................................... 8
Tracking Signal............................................................................ 8

BAB III

METODOLOGI PENELITIAN .............................................. 9

3.1
3.2
3.2.1
3.2.2
3.2.3
3.2.4
3.2.5
3.3

Lokasi / Obyek............................................................................ 9
Tahapan Kegiatan....................................................................... 9
TahapPersiapan........................................................................... 9
Tahap Pengumpulan Data........................................................... 9
Tahap Pengolahan Data.............................................................. 10
Tahap Analisa............................................................................ 10
Tahap Penutup............................................................................ 10
Diagram Alir............................................................................... 11

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BAB IV

PENGUMPULAN DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA ................. 12

4.1
4.2
4.2.1
4.2.2
4.3

Pengumpulan Data...................................................................... 12
Pengolahan Data......................................................................... 13
Pengolahan Data Secara Manual................................................ 13
Pengolahan Data Secara Komputerisasi..................................... 15
Analisa Data................................................................................ 17

BAB V

PENUTUP................................................................................... 19

6.1
6.2

Kesimpulan ................................................................................ 19
Saran........................................................................................... 19

DAFTAR PUSTAKA
LAMPIRAN

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DAFTAR GAMBAR
Gambar

2.1
2.2
3.1
4.1
4.2

Halaman

Pola Trend................................................................................. 3
Pola Musiman........................................................................... 4
Diagram Alir............................................................................. 11
Plot Data PT.Prabu.................................................................... 12
Grafik Tracking Signal............................................................. 15

DAFTAR TABEL
Tabel

4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7

Halaman

Data produk type tiga................................................................... 12

Hasil Perhitungan dengan metode
Single Exponential Smoothing..................................................... 13
Hasil Perhitungan dengan metode
Double Exponential Smoothing................................................... 13
Hasil Perhitungan dengan metode
Adaptive Exponential Smoothing................................................. 14
Data PerhitunganJumlah Cacat Dalam 30 Kali Pengambilan
Sampel.......................................................................................... 17
Data yang Telah Disesuaikan Dengan Dihilangkannya Data
Ke 2, 12, dan 13........................................................................... 20
Data Kekuatan Tarik.................................................................... 23

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DAFTAR LAMPIRAN

Lampiran 1

Output SPSS Statistical Process Control

Lampiran 2

Pengolahan dan Analisa Data Statistical Process Control

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