Global Global

Strategy Challenges
Executable
Solutions

2020

: ?

France Houdard

france.houdard@exolus.com
February 2011
Copyright 2011 Exolus.

2011 1:

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: , ?, 2009 2

()

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2002

2003

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: BP

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China GDP ( )

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1.5
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2x
2x

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Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

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1981

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0.0

: 7

2020:
GDP* -adjusted

2020 GDP*

27

$29.6

$28.8

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2009 GDP*

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Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

6,4

trillions
de $

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trillions Japan
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0

2005

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2020F

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35

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Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

2007MGI2008

:
:

6(2010) - 7(2015)

1,600
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13

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10

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()

531
245

381

23%

31%

40%

49%

57%

1985

1995

2005

2015

2025

Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

2007 10

 (2020): /
/6

Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

11

: 202050%
2 1050%
2020
)
4,000
3,500
49%

3,000
2,500
2,000

100%

1,500
1,000
500
-

Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

12

Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

13

(2010 2050)

100%
90%
80%

70%
60%
50%

40%

40%

32.5%
25%

30%
20%

15%

10%
0%
2010

Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

2020

2030

2040

2050

: , , 2009

14

20

(2010, 2020)

10

350
300
250

200
150

100
50
0

Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

: , 2011-2020

15

1.4
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1
0.8
0.6

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0

Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

: ,

16

(2009)
30

25

20

15

10

0
Wind

Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

Solar

Biomass & w-t-e

Other renewables

Energy smart

technologies

17

:
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(2009)

40
35

34.6

30
25
20

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10.8

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4.3

3.3

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2.1

1.9

1.
6

0.9

Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

: , ?, 2009 18

Copyright 2011 Exolus. .

19

:
,

IT

HR

Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

20

3. : (R&D)?
(R&D):

()

, D

()

> 10
> 50

> 150

Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

UNCTAD, WIR

21

3. :
: 160

200

United
States

(1985 2005)

China

180

160

United
Kingdom

Japan

South
Korea

Germany

140

120
100

80
60

40
20

Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

2008

22

: ?
> > > ->

> 5,000 MJ/m2/yr

Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

: (NRDC); ; Gao Hua Securities 23

2011 1:

,

, ?
:

:
: 3
:
-

- SunFab
-

: 4

Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

24

(2010 2020)

350,000
298,451

300,000
250,000
221,789

200,000
164,404

150,000
121,949
91,092

100,000
69,457

50,000
19,531

23,853

28,854

35,080

43,181

54,122

Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

25

100%
90%

13%
25%
37%

80%
70%

40%

27%

60%
43%

50%

36%
40%
30%

35%

60%

20%
32%
10%

27%

25%

2015E

2020E

0%
2005

Copyright 2011 Exolus.

2010E

: GTM CEBM

26

> 10
> 50
> 150

Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

: UNCTAD, WIR 27

 ?
The Locations of Major PV Manufactures China

Crona

Solar Photo-electricity

Sunearth

CNUV

Copyright 2011 Exolus.

SEMI

28

Copyright 2011 Exolus.

29


2020

16,000
14,000
12,000

10,000
8,000
6,000

4,000
2,000
-

Copyright 2011 Exolus.

30

NORDEX

Gamesa

ACCIONA

Copyright 2011 Exolus.

: , 2008

31

: 18,200 MW
: 310

Copyright 2011 Exolus.

32

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

Copyright 2011 Exolus.

: 2009

33

ALSTOM

NTC

STGC

TOSHIBA

Copyright 2011 Exolus.

34

Copyright 2011 Exolus. .

35

14
(2009 2011)
%
60

50

40

30

20

10

Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

France

Poland

Mexico

Vietnam

Canada

Indonesia

Australia

Germany

U.K.

Russia

Brazil

India

United States

China

2009 - 2011

36


; 2.85 ;

90 199740 50%; 20076%

20091.4200820101.22009

2010: 2.85

2.85

1997 -1%2007+4.3%

5 38 ppa);

10

Copyright 2011 Exolus. ..

: UBS; IMF; Other 37


:
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