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  • Lorenz Three Approaches 1969

    Diunggah oleh

    Houw Liong The
    39 tayangan7 halaman
    Tree Approaches to Atmospheric Predictability E.N. Lorenz

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    Tree Approaches to Atmospheric Predictability E.N. Lorenz

    Hak Cipta:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Unduh sebagai PDF atau baca online dari Scribd
    Tandai sebagai konten tidak pantas
    39 tayangan7 halaman

    Lorenz Three Approaches 1969

    Diunggah oleh

    Houw Liong The
    Tree Approaches to Atmospheric Predictability E.N. Lorenz

    Hak Cipta:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Unduh sebagai PDF atau baca online dari Scribd
    Tandai sebagai konten tidak pantas
    dari 7
    + copies available {Reprinced from Buieetiy oF THe AstEacAN MerzoRoLocicat Society, Vol. 50, No. 5, May, 1968, pp. 345-851] stad fe Us 8. ‘Three Approaches to Atmospheric Predictability Edward N. Lorenz Massachusetts Institute of Technology Abstract One stated aim of the Global Atmospheric Research Program is the determination of the extent to which the atmosphere is predictable, Since errors in observation are inevitable, the accuracy of extrapolation into the future is limited by the rate at which separate solutions of the governing equations diverge from one another. Three basically different methods for investigating the growth rate of errors have been exploited. ‘The dynamical method compares numerical solutions of special systems of equations. Small errors appear to double in les than a week, the growth rate decreasing when the errors become large. The empirical method examines naturally occurring analogues. Moderately large errors amplify by nearly 10% in one day, but extrapolation of the results suggests that small errors would double in about dhrce days. The dynamicalem: pirical method uses derived equations for the errors, ‘with observed spectral properties of the atmosphere ap. pearing as coefficients, Only the last method treats smaller-scale fearures explicitly. Smallacale errors appear Bulletin American Meteorological Society to grow very rapidly, meanwhile inducing errors in the larger scales, which then double in two or three days. ‘The dynamical method probably overestimates the dou- bling time because of special numerical approximations used to suppress computational instability. ‘An absolure maximum range of a few weeks for pre- icting a particular day's weather is indicated. A con: siderably denser observational network will be required Defore this ideal range can be approached in practice. The outlook for major improvements in shorerange Forecasting is favorable. 1. Introduction One of the practical benefits which it is hoped will follow from the Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) is the development of a capability for produc- ing greatly improved weather forecasts. Over the years there have been those who have envisioned a day when the weather might be predicted far in advance with vir- tually no error, perhaps with the accuracy with which solar eclipses are predicted now. Others have steadfastly 345, maintained dat there are certain limitations upon the possible accuracy of weather prediction, which no system ff forecasting can ever hope to overcome.

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