UTS STATISTIK

PROGRAM PASCA SARJANA

PENGAJAR : TOTO WARSA, Ir., M.S.

PENYUSUN:
Nama : Ade Setiawan
NPM : 150220060003

PERTANYAAN DAN JAWABAN

Pertanyaan:
a. Hitung nilai β0 dan β1 untuk model regresi Y = β0 + β1X + ε dan tentukanlah persamaan
garis regresinya!
b. Lakukan Uji statitik, Analisis Varians dan termasuk Simpangan Model dan Galat Murninya!
c. Kerjakan point a dan b untuk data yang sudah di tranformasi logaritma

1
Jawab:

1. Analisis data sebelum ditransformasikan:

No X Y X2 Y2 XY Ulangan JKGM
1 20.0 90 400.00 8100 1800.0
2 20.0 105 400.00 11025 2100.0 2 112.50000
3 20.5 90 420.25 8100 1845.0
4 20.5 90 420.25 8100 1845.0
5 20.5 100 420.25 10000 2050.0
6 20.5 110 420.25 12100 2255.0 4 275.00000
7 21.0 100 441.00 10000 2100.0
8 21.0 105 441.00 11025 2205.0 2 12.50000
9 21.5 100 462.25 10000 2150.0
10 21.5 105 462.25 11025 2257.5
11 21.5 110 462.25 12100 2365.0
12 21.5 110 462.25 12100 2365.0
13 21.5 110 462.25 12100 2365.0
14 21.5 110 462.25 12100 2365.0
15 21.5 110 462.25 12100 2365.0
16 21.5 110 462.25 12100 2365.0
17 21.5 115 462.25 13225 2472.5
18 21.5 115 462.25 13225 2472.5
19 21.5 115 462.25 13225 2472.5
20 21.5 115 462.25 13225 2472.5
21 21.5 120 462.25 14400 2580.0 13 307.69231
22 22.0 110 484.00 12100 2420.0
23 22.0 110 484.00 12100 2420.0
24 22.0 115 484.00 13225 2530.0
25 22.0 115 484.00 13225 2530.0
26 22.0 115 484.00 13225 2530.0
27 22.0 115 484.00 13225 2530.0
28 22.0 120 484.00 14400 2640.0
29 22.0 120 484.00 14400 2640.0
30 22.0 120 484.00 14400 2640.0
31 22.0 120 484.00 14400 2640.0
32 22.0 120 484.00 14400 2640.0
33 22.0 120 484.00 14400 2640.0
34 22.0 120 484.00 14400 2640.0
35 22.0 120 484.00 14400 2640.0
36 22.0 120 484.00 14400 2640.0
37 22.0 125 484.00 15625 2750.0
38 22.0 125 484.00 15625 2750.0
39 22.0 125 484.00 15625 2750.0
40 22.0 130 484.00 16900 2860.0
41 22.0 130 484.00 16900 2860.0 20 573.75000
42 22.5 115 506.25 13225 2587.5
43 22.5 115 506.25 13225 2587.5
44 22.5 115 506.25 13225 2587.5
45 22.5 120 506.25 14400 2700.0
46 22.5 120 506.25 14400 2700.0
47 22.5 120 506.25 14400 2700.0

2
 No X Y X2 Y2 XY Ulangan JKGM
48 22.5 120 506.25 14400 2700.0
49 22.5 120 506.25 14400 2700.0
50 22.5 120 506.25 14400 2700.0
51 22.5 125 506.25 15625 2812.5
52 22.5 125 506.25 15625 2812.5
53 22.5 125 506.25 15625 2812.5
54 22.5 125 506.25 15625 2812.5
55 22.5 125 506.25 15625 2812.5
56 22.5 130 506.25 16900 2925.0
57 22.5 130 506.25 16900 2925.0
58 22.5 130 506.25 16900 2925.0
59 22.5 130 506.25 16900 2925.0
60 22.5 135 506.25 18225 3037.5
61 22.5 135 506.25 18225 3037.5
62 22.5 135 506.25 18225 3037.5
63 22.5 140 506.25 19600 3150.0
64 22.5 150 506.25 22500 3375.0 23 1660.86957
65 23.0 125 529.00 15625 2875.0
66 23.0 130 529.00 16900 2990.0
67 23.0 140 529.00 19600 3220.0
68 23.0 140 529.00 19600 3220.0
69 23.0 140 529.00 19600 3220.0
70 23.0 140 529.00 19600 3220.0
71 23.0 145 529.00 21025 3335.0
72 23.0 145 529.00 21025 3335.0
73 23.0 145 529.00 21025 3335.0 9 388.88889
74 23.5 145 552.25 21025 3407.5
75 23.5 150 552.25 22500 3525.0
76 23.5 155 552.25 24025 3642.5
77 23.5 170 552.25 28900 3995.0 4 350.00000
78 24.0 165 576.00 27225 3960.0
79 24.0 170 576.00 28900 4080.0 2 12.50000
80 25.0 170 625.00 28900 4250.0
Jumlah 1775 9910 39443 1250800 220930 3693.7008
Rataan 22.1875 123.875
X = 22.1875 ΣX i
2
= 39443
Y = 123.8750 ΣYi
2
= 1250800
ΣX i = 1775 ΣX i Y = 220930
ΣYi = 9910 JKGM = 3693.7008

3
a. Jika model regresinya Y = β0 + β1X + ε, tentukanlah persamaan garis regresinya!
ΣX i ΣYi β 0 = Y − β1 X
ΣX i Yi − = 123.8750 − 17.47664(22.1875)
β1 = n
= -263.8879
(ΣX i ) 2
ΣX i −
2

n
(1775)(9910)
220930 −
= 80
(1775) 2
39443 −
80
= 17.47664

Sehingga persamaan regresinya:

Y = -263.88785 + 17.47664 X

Koefisien Korelasi: Koefisien Determinasi:

ΣX i ΣYi R 2 = ryx
2
ΣX i Yi −
ryx = n = (0.890182) 2
⎛ = 0.792424
(ΣX i ) ⎞⎛ 2 (ΣYi ) 2 ⎞
2
⎜⎜ ΣX i 2 − ⎟⎜ ΣYi − ⎟
⎝ n ⎟⎠⎜⎝ n ⎟⎠
(1775)(9910)
220930 −
= 80
⎛ (1775) ⎞⎛
2
(9910) 2 ⎞
⎜⎜ 39443 − ⎟⎟⎜⎜1250800 − ⎟⎟
⎝ 80 ⎠⎝ 80 ⎠
= 0.890182

4
b. Uji Statistik (Analisis Varians termasuk Simpangan Model dan Galat Murni)
(ΣΣi ) 2 ( 9910 ) 2
FK = =
n 80
= 1227601.25

JKT = ΣYi − FK
2

= 1250800-1227601.25
= 23198.75

⎡ ΣX i ΣYi ⎤
JK Re gresi = β1 ⎢ ΣX i Yi −
⎣ n ⎥⎦
⎡ ( 1775 )( 9910 ) ⎤
= 17.47664⎢220930- ⎥⎦
⎣ 80
= 18383.235981
JK Re sidu = JKT-JK Re g
= 23198.75 − 18383.24
= 4815.51
JKGM = 3693.700762

JKSM = JK Re sidu-JKGM
= 4815.51 - 3693.700762
= 1121.813257

Tabel Analisis Varians Regresi:

Sumber Ragam DB JK RJK F-hit F.05 F.01

Regresi 1 18383.235981 18383.24 297.77 3.96 6.97
Residu 78 4815.514019 61.73736
SM 8 1121.813257 140.2267 2.66* 2.07 2.78
GM 70 3693.700762 52.76715
Total 79 23198.750000

5
2. Analisis data setelah ditransformasikan:

No X Y X2 Y2 XY Ulangan JKGM
1 1.30 1.95 1.69 3.8025 2.5350
2 1.30 2.02 1.69 4.0804 2.6260 2 0.00245
3 1.31 1.95 1.72 3.8025 2.5545
4 1.31 1.95 1.72 3.8025 2.5545
5 1.31 2.00 1.72 4.0000 2.6200
6 1.31 2.04 1.72 4.1616 2.6724 4 0.00570
7 1.32 2.00 1.74 4.0000 2.6400
8 1.32 2.02 1.74 4.0804 2.6664 2 0.00020
9 1.33 2.00 1.77 4.0000 2.6600
10 1.33 2.02 1.77 4.0804 2.6866
11 1.33 2.04 1.77 4.1616 2.7132
12 1.33 2.04 1.77 4.1616 2.7132
13 1.33 2.04 1.77 4.1616 2.7132
14 1.33 2.04 1.77 4.1616 2.7132
15 1.33 2.04 1.77 4.1616 2.7132
16 1.33 2.04 1.77 4.1616 2.7132
17 1.33 2.06 1.77 4.2436 2.7398
18 1.33 2.06 1.77 4.2436 2.7398
19 1.33 2.06 1.77 4.2436 2.7398
20 1.33 2.06 1.77 4.2436 2.7398
21 1.33 2.08 1.77 4.3264 2.7664 13 0.00492
22 1.34 2.04 1.80 4.1616 2.7336
23 1.34 2.04 1.80 4.1616 2.7336
24 1.34 2.06 1.80 4.2436 2.7604
25 1.34 2.06 1.80 4.2436 2.7604
26 1.34 2.06 1.80 4.2436 2.7604
27 1.34 2.06 1.80 4.2436 2.7604
28 1.34 2.08 1.80 4.3264 2.7872
29 1.34 2.08 1.80 4.3264 2.7872
30 1.34 2.08 1.80 4.3264 2.7872
31 1.34 2.08 1.80 4.3264 2.7872
32 1.34 2.08 1.80 4.3264 2.7872
33 1.34 2.08 1.80 4.3264 2.7872
34 1.34 2.08 1.80 4.3264 2.7872
35 1.34 2.08 1.80 4.3264 2.7872
36 1.34 2.08 1.80 4.3264 2.7872
37 1.34 2.10 1.80 4.4100 2.8140
38 1.34 2.10 1.80 4.4100 2.8140
39 1.34 2.10 1.80 4.4100 2.8140
40 1.34 2.11 1.80 4.4521 2.8274
41 1.34 2.11 1.80 4.4521 2.8274 20 0.00772
42 1.35 2.06 1.82 4.2436 2.7810
43 1.35 2.06 1.82 4.2436 2.7810
44 1.35 2.06 1.82 4.2436 2.7810
45 1.35 2.08 1.82 4.3264 2.8080
46 1.35 2.08 1.82 4.3264 2.8080
47 1.35 2.08 1.82 4.3264 2.8080
48 1.35 2.08 1.82 4.3264 2.8080
49 1.35 2.08 1.82 4.3264 2.8080

6
 No X Y X2 Y2 XY Ulangan JKGM
50 1.35 2.08 1.82 4.3264 2.8080
51 1.35 2.10 1.82 4.4100 2.8350
52 1.35 2.10 1.82 4.4100 2.8350
53 1.35 2.10 1.82 4.4100 2.8350
54 1.35 2.10 1.82 4.4100 2.8350
55 1.35 2.10 1.82 4.4100 2.8350
56 1.35 2.11 1.82 4.4521 2.8485
57 1.35 2.11 1.82 4.4521 2.8485
58 1.35 2.11 1.82 4.4521 2.8485
59 1.35 2.11 1.82 4.4521 2.8485
60 1.35 2.13 1.82 4.5369 2.8755
61 1.35 2.13 1.82 4.5369 2.8755
62 1.35 2.13 1.82 4.5369 2.8755
63 1.35 2.15 1.82 4.6225 2.9025
64 1.35 2.18 1.82 4.7524 2.9430 23 0.01918
65 1.36 2.10 1.85 4.4100 2.8560
66 1.36 2.11 1.85 4.4521 2.8696
67 1.36 2.15 1.85 4.6225 2.9240
68 1.36 2.15 1.85 4.6225 2.9240
69 1.36 2.15 1.85 4.6225 2.9240
70 1.36 2.15 1.85 4.6225 2.9240
71 1.36 2.16 1.85 4.6656 2.9376
72 1.36 2.16 1.85 4.6656 2.9376
73 1.36 2.16 1.85 4.6656 2.9376 9 0.00400
74 1.37 2.16 1.88 4.6656 2.9592
75 1.37 2.18 1.88 4.7524 2.9866
76 1.37 2.19 1.88 4.7961 3.0003
77 1.37 2.23 1.88 4.9729 3.0551 4 0.00260
78 1.38 2.22 1.90 4.9284 3.0636
79 1.38 2.23 1.90 4.9729 3.0774 2 0.00005
80 1.40 2.23 1.96 4.9729 3.1220
107.5 167.12 144.4772 349.3934 224.6412 0.046825686
4.367417
1.3438 2.0890 1.805965 5 2.808015
X = 1.3438 ΣX i
2
= 144.4772
Y = 2.0890 ΣYi
2
= 349.3934
ΣX i = 107.5 ΣX i Y = 224.6412
ΣYi = 167.12 JKGM = 0.04682569

7
a. Jika model regresinya Y = β0Xβ1ε, tentukanlah β0 dan β1 serta persamaan garis regresinya!
Jika persamaan Y = β0Xβ1ε, di rubah jadi bentuk logaritma:
Log Y = Log β0 + β1 Log X + Log ε atau
Y* = β0* + β1X* + ε*

ΣX i ΣYi β 0 * = Y − β1 X
ΣX i Yi −
n = 2.0890 − 3.061267(1.3438)
β1 = = -2.024577
(ΣX i ) 2
ΣX i −
2

n
(107.5)(167.12)
224.6412 −
= 80
(107.5) 2
144.4772 −
80
= 3.061267

Persamaan regresinya:
Y* = -2.0246 + 3.0613 X
Dari persamaan tersebut bisa didapatkan nilai β0 dan β1:
β0 = 10β0 = 10(-2.024577362)
= 0.0094498 ; dan
β1 = 3.06127

Sehingga persamaan regresinya:

Y = 0.00945 X 3.06127

Koefisien Korelasi: Koefisien Determinasi:

ΣX i ΣYi R 2 = ryx
2
ΣX i Yi −
ryx = n = (0.890182) 2
⎛ = 0.792424
(ΣX i ) ⎞⎛ 2 (ΣYi ) 2 ⎞
2
⎜⎜ ΣX i 2 − ⎟⎜ ΣYi − ⎟
⎝ n ⎟⎠⎜⎝ n ⎟⎠
(107.5)(167.12)
224.6412 −
= 80
⎛ (107.5) ⎞⎛ 2
(167.12) 2 ⎞
⎜⎜144.4772 − ⎟⎟⎜⎜ 349.3934 − ⎟⎟
⎝ 80 ⎠⎝ 80 ⎠
= 0.898096

8
b. Uji Statistik (Analisis Varians termasuk Simpangan Model dan Galat Murni)
(ΣYi ) 2 ( 167.12 ) 2
FK = =
n 80
= 349.113680

JKT = ΣYi − FK
2

= 349.393400 -349.113680
= 0.279720

⎡ ΣX i ΣYi ⎤
JK Re gresi = β1 ⎢ ΣX i Yi −
⎣ n ⎥⎦
⎡ ( 107.5 )( 167.12 ) ⎤
= 3.061267 ⎢224.6412- ⎥⎦
⎣ 80
= 0.225615
JK Re sidu = JKT-JK Re g
= 0.279720 − 0.225615
= 0.054105
JKGM = 0.046826

JKSM = JK Re sidu-JKGM
= 0.054105 - 0.046826
= 0.007279

Tabel Analisis Varians Regresi:

Sumber Ragam DB JK RJK F-hit F.05 F.01

Regresi 1 0.225615 0.225615 325.26 3.96 6.97
Residu 78 0.054105 0.000694
SM 8 0.007279 0.000910 1.36tn 2.07 2.78
GM 70 0.046826 0.000669
Total 79 0.279720