Teacher Name: Ashley Schellenberg Subject Area(s): Math Unit Title: Statistics and Probability Lesson Title: Comparing Probabilities General Outcomes from Program of Studies: GLOs: Use Experimental or theoretical probabilities to represent and solve problems involving
uncertainty SLOs: 4. Compare the likelihood of two possible outcomes occurring, using words such as: Less likely Equally likely More likely
Grade Level: 5
Objectives:
The students will be able to: 1. Identify whether an outcome is more likely, less likely, and equally. 2. Create or recognize a spinner that has at least two outcomes that are equally likely 3. Create or recognize a spinner that has at least two outcomes where one is more likely than the other
What Will I Differentiate? Content How Will I Differentiate? Readiness Pre-Assessment xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Introduction
Discussion Start off the class by going over the agenda o Group discussion o Partner work o Individual activity Remind the students of the previous work they have done using spinners and die in the classroom to perform experiments in testing probabilities. Today you are going to be talking about comparing the
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Learning Profile
likelihood or the unlikelihood of different events. ASK the students to explain whether or not they think that there is a greater chance that a flipped coin will land on heads versus tails or vice versa. Ask the students to write down as many other examples they can think of where outcomes are considered equally likely. Have a couple of students share their answers and explain their reasoning to the class. ASK: can anyone describe some events that do not have the same chance of occurring? How can we tell whether one outcome will be more likely than another? What types of words can we use to describe the comparisons we see between the different likelihoods of events occurring? Write the words the students suggest on the board to reference them later.
Differentiated Strategy/Activity:
Demonstration: Explain to the students that you have a bag with 8 marbles. Of those marbles, 6 are red and 2 are blue. Have them to write down their prediction of which colour is more likely to be pulled out of the bag. Ask 8 students to come up to the classroom to pull a marble out of the bag and replace it before the next student pulls another one. Record the results on the board. Ask the students if they find anything surprising about what actually happened versus what they thought would happen. ASK: what factors might affect your results? Record the results on a probability line: Impossible Possible Certain Unlikely likely
Explain that experimental results may not represent the outcomes you predicted, not because the predictions were wrong, but rather because real life experiments do always work out as expected. Ask the students if they can explain how they could make the bag have an equal number of outcomes. Have them share their answers with a partner, and then have a few share their ideas with the class. Make sure to enforce the understanding that they would need to have an equal number of each colored marble in order for the outcomes to be equally likely.
Tiered Small group activity: Students will then be broken up into two groups: Tier 1 Tier 2 (Advanced) Group activity: Small Group Activity The less advanced group will meet with the The advanced group will receive worksheets. Ask teacher and go more probability examples that the students to break off into pairs and have them are focused on more simple and basic scenarios perform the different experiments involving involving probability comparisons. (ie: dice, spinners that are on the worksheet and answer spinner). The Teacher will provide the objects the questions provided. needed for each student. The main objective is to Once they are finished, they can go over provide the students with more tangible their results as a group. opportunities to connect with probability comparisons.
Individual Activity: Each student will be given a worksheet that has different examples of black and white spinners on it. They will need to work through the questions provided, colouring the different aspects of the spinners correctly according to the question. The worksheet will provide two examples of spinners that are pre-divided into 3 sections. Students must identify which one demonstrates equal probabilities, and which one does not. They will then colour in the areas that are the most probable, and the least probable, etc. The students should try and identify different examples of other scenarios that reflect equal and not equal probabilities and discuss them. The students will finish by answering some reflection questions.
Individual Activity: Each student will be responsible for creating his or her own spinner. After they will answer the provided questions analyzing what they have produced Each student will receive a sheet of paper that has two circles that are empty on the inside. The spinner must be divided into at least three sections of different colors that are labeled to indicate what they represent. Remind and show students of how to make an appropriate legend. The students must create one spinner that represents a scenario that has outcomes that are not equal to each other and one spinner that has outcomes that are equal to each other. For the spinner that has outcomes that are not equal, the student needs to indicate which event is most likely to occur and which event is least likely to occur. Inform students of the checklist provided that contains the marking scheme For each spinner, the students must write out an explanation indicating how they know that the events are either equally likely or not equally likely. Challenge students to relate their outcomes to events that occur in real life.
spinning green, a or b? For a and b, which spinner has an equally likely chance of being spun? - Name an outcome on the spinner that is more likely than spinning blue. Spinner Rubric Spinner cut out Outline of a spinner that they can use when they construct their own spinners. Anchor activity one: Assignment sheet (instructions), materials for game pieces (paper, cardboard, tokens, Anchor activity two: Game boards, spinners, tokens, paper clips (to use as spinners).