Weekly Summary Report

2013 Trading Week 34: 12-18 August 2013

Weekly Summary Report

SUPPLY AND DEMAND
TABLE 1. DAILY SUMMARY OF OFFERS AND DEMAND, SYSTEM
DATE Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 OFFER, MW MIN 8,949 9,176 8,973 9,020 9,039 8,635 8,991 8,635 AVE 9,244 9,394 9,227 9,312 9,452 9,220 9,293 9,306 MAX 9,646 9,707 9,558 9,640 9,872 9,498 9,792 9,872 MIN 5,176 5,625 5,991 6,244 6,483 6,319 5,715 5,176 RTD DEMAND, MW AVE 6,867 7,271 7,616 7,784 7,892 7,209 6,546 7,312 MAX 8,306 8,841 9,005 9,129 8,296 7,566 9,129

Week 34: 12-18 August 2013

GRAPH 1. HOURLY PROFILE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, SYSTEM

11000 OFFER AVAILABLE SUPPLY SYSTEM RTD

10000

MEGAWATT

8,470

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

DAILY MINIMUM, AVERAGE, AND MAXIMUM VALUES OF ENERGY OFFERS AND EX-ANTE DEMAND FOR THE WEEK

HOURLY TREND OF ENERGY OFFERS, AVAILABLE SUPPLY, AND DEMAND AT EX-ANTE

FORECAST PERFORMANCE
TABLE 2. DAILY SUMMARY OF FORECAST ERRORS, SYSTEM
FORECAST ERRORS, % DATE Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 MINIMUM 0.10 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.03 0.04 0.03 MAPE 1.54 0.93 0.62 0.55 0.53 0.78 1.18 0.87 MAXIMUM 5.98 1.23 2.69 1.79 3.39 2.50 5.98 HOURLY TREND OF PROJECTED (RTD) AND ACTUAL DEMAND
6000 MEGAWATT

GRAPH 2. HOURLY PROFILE OF PROJECTED AND ACTUAL DEMAND, SYSTEM

11000 SYSTEM RTD SYSTEM ACTUAL 10000

3.09

9000

8000

7000

5000

DAILY MINIMUM, AVERAGE, AND MAXIMUM FORECAST ERRORS FOR THE WEEK

EX-ANTE GENERATION MIX

TABLE 3. DAILY SUMMARY OF EX-ANTE GENERATION MIX, SYSTEM
GENERATION MIX, % DATE Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 COAL 45.3 45.4 45.2 43.9 45.3 45.3 42.0 44.7 GENERATION MIX GEO 14.0 13.6 13.9 14.8 14.7 16.2 17.5 14.9 HYDRO 8.9 11.6 10.0 9.5 9.2 9.6 11.3 10.0 NAT GAS 31.6 29.1 29.2 28.7 28.2 28.9 29.1 29.2 DIESEL / OIL 0.2 0.2 1.7 3.2 2.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 WIND AND BIO GEO 14.9% HYDRO 10.0% NAT GAS 29.2%

GRAPH 3. TOTAL EX-ANTE GENERATION MIX FOR THE WEEK, SYSTEM

DIESEL/OIL 1.2%

COAL 44.7%

DAILY PERCENTAGE (%) SHARE OF RESOURCE TYPE TO THE SCHEDULED (EX-ANTE)

WEEKLY GENERATION MIX BY RESOURCE TYPE (IN %) BASED ON THE SCHEDULED GENERATION DURING THE TRADING WEEK

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Weekly Summary Report

CAPACITY (OFFER) MIX
TABLE 4. DAILY % SHARE OF ENERGY OFFERS, SYSTEM
AVERAGE CAPACITY MIX, % DATE Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 COAL 42.3 41.5 41.1 40.5 41.2 41.8 43.2 41.7 GEO 11.9 11.8 12.3 12.4 12.1 12.5 12.4 12.2 HYDRO 7.3 8.9 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.4 8.2 7.9 NAT GAS 26.6 26.2 26.6 26.4 26.0 26.4 25.2 26.2 DIESEL / OIL 11.9 11.7 11.8 12.9 13.1 11.9 11.1 12.1 WIND AND BIO -

Week 34: 12-18 August 2013

GRAPH 4. HOURLY PROFILE OF % SHARE OF ENERGY OFFERS, SYSTEM

12000 OTHERS NAT GAS GEO DIESEL/OIL HYDRO COAL

9000

MEGAWATT

6000

3000

DAILY PERCENTAGE (%) MIX OF ENERGY OFFERS BY RESOURCE TYPE

HOURLY PROFLE OF ENERGY OFFER MIX BY RESOURCE TYPE

HVDC FLOW
TABLE 5. DAILY SUMMARY OF HVDC FLOWS
HVDC DIRECTION, % OF TIME DATE Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 RTD NO FLOW VL 95.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 95.8 83.3 95.8 95.8 LV 4.2 4.2 16.7 4.2 4.2 NO FLOW 4.2 8.3 8.3 3.0 ACTUAL
200

GRAPH 5. HOURLY PROFLE OF EX-ANTE HVDC FLOWS

250 LUZON TO VISAYAS VISAYAS TO LUZON

VL 87.5 95.8 91.7 91.7 87.5 66.7 87.5 86.9

LV 12.5 8.3 8.3 12.5 25.0 4.2 10.1 SCHEDULED HVDC FLOW AT EX-ANTE, WHICH CAN EITHER BE FROM VISAYAS TO LUZON OR FROM LUZON TO VISAYAS. ZERO INDICATES NO POWER FLOW BETWEEN BOTH GRIDS.
MEGAWATT 150

100

50

-50

-100

DAILY SUMMARY OF HVDC FLOWS INDICATING THE FLOW OF POWER, WHICH CAN EITHER BE FROM VISAYAS TO LUZON (VL), LUZON TO VISAYAS (LV), OR NO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO GRIDS (NO FLOW)

MARKET PRICES
TABLE 6. SUMMARY OF LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES, SYSTEM
DATE Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 RTD MIN 983 1,020 1,551 1,541 1,592 1,357 974 974 FOR THE WEEK MAX 2,521 7,602 21,922 17,543 31,032 4,272 2,162 31,032 AVE 1,804 2,642 7,467 7,934 6,316 1,913 1,531 4,377 MIN 983 1,021 1,550 1,541 1,574 1,582 0 0 RTX MAX 2,572 7,637 22,739 17,543 31,032 4,300 2,244 31,032 AVE 1,775
LWAP, PESOS PER MWh 28000

GRAPH 6. HOURLY PROFILE OF LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES, SYSTEM

35000 RTD LWAP RTX LWAP

2,705 7,610 8,085 6,296 1,942 1,511 4,438

21000

14000

7000

DAILY MINIMUM, AVERAGE, AND MAXIMUM SYSTEM (LUZON AND VISAYAS) PRICES

HOURLY TREND OF RTD AND RTX SYSTEM (LUZON AND VISAYAS) PRICES DURING THE WEEK

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Weekly Summary Report

GRAPH 7. EX-ANTE LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE DISTRIBUTION, SYSTEM
100 RTD RTX

Week 34: 12-18 August 2013

GRAPH 8. HOURLY EX-ANTE LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES PER GRID

35000 LUZON VISAYAS

80 PERCENT OF TIME LWAP, PESOS PER MWh

28000

60

21000

40

14000

20

7000

0
0 and Below 0 - 2000 2000 - 4000 4000 - 6000 6000 - 8000 8000 10000 Above 10000

DISTRIBUTION OF THE HOURLY RTD AND RTX SYSTEM LWAP DURING THE WEEK. THE WEEKLY PERCENT OF TIME IS CALCULATED BASED ON A 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD AND THE TOTAL NUMBER OF HOURS DURING THE WEEK.

HOURLY TREND OF EX-ANTE PRICES IN LUZON AND VISAYAS DURING THE WEEK

TABLE 7. SUMMARY OF LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES, LUZON

DATE Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 RTD, PhP/MWh MIN 1,005 1,019 1,640 1,616 1,648 1,388 970 970 MAX 2,383 7,605 22,805 17,584 31,117 4,171 1,985 31,117 AVE 1,814 2,671 7,539 8,051 6,291 1,906 1,546 4,420 MIN 1,010 1,020 1,638 1,616 1,647 1,657 926 926 RTX, PhP/MWh MAX 2,383 7,605 22,805 17,584 31,117 4,175 2,062 31,117 AVE 1,784 2,691 7,616 8,147 6,284 1,931 1,514 4,459

TABLE 8. SUMMARY OF LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES, VISAYAS

DATE Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 RTD, PhP/MWh MIN 637 1,027 1,028 1,112 1,279 1,071 822 637 MAX 3,415 7,721 17,308 17,325 30,572 4,769 3,004 30,572 AVE 1,756 2,491 7,079 7,299 6,453 1,950 1,453 4,149 MIN 625 1,007 1,038 1,113 1,130 1,038 819 625 RTX, PhP/MWh MAX 3,439 7,799 22,389 17,432 30,572 4,868 3,078 30,572 AVE 1,732 2,777 7,578 7,752 6,358 1,996 1,497 4,331

DAILY MINIMUM, AVERAGE, AND MAXIMUM PRICES IN LUZON FOR THE WEEK

DAILY MINIMUM, AVERAGE, AND MAXIMUM PRICES IN VISAYAS FOR THE WEEK

GRAPH 9. HOURLY PROFILE OF LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES, LUZON

RTD LWAP 35000 RTX LWAP

GRAPH 10. HOURLY PROFILE OF LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES, VISAYAS

RTD LWAP 35000 RTX LWAP

28000 LWAP, PESOS PER MWh LWAP, PESOS PER MWh

28000

21000

21000

14000

14000

7000

7000

GRAPH 11. HOURLY PROFILE OF MAX AND MIN NODAL PRICES, LUZON
MAXIMUM 35000 MINIMUM

GRAPH 12. HOURLY PROFILE OF MAX AND MIN NODAL PRICES, VISAYAS
MAXIMUM 35000 MINIMUM

28000 LWAP, PESOS PER MWh LWAP, PESOS PER MWh

28000

21000

21000

14000

14000

7000

7000

HOURLY TREND OF RTD AND RTX PRICES IN LUZON DURING THE WEEK

HOURLY TREND OF RTD AND RTX PRICES IN VISAYAS DURING THE WEEK

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Weekly Summary Report

CONGESTIONS
TABLE 9. CONSTRAINED EQUIPMENT, LUZON
EQUIPMENT CRUZ NA DAAN-BALINTAWAK LINE MEXICO-CRUZ NA DAAN LINE BALINTAWAK ZAPOTE BACMAN TR3 CALAUAN-MAKBAN LINE EX-ANTE EX-POST INTERVALS % OF TIME INTERVALS % OF TIME 1 1 1 68 1 1 0.60 0.60 0.60 40.48 0.60 0.60 1 0.60 -

Week 34: 12-18 August 2013

TABLE 10. CONSTRAINED EQUIPMENT, VISAYAS

EQUIPMENT CEBU TR2 QUIOT TR1 PGPP1 TR1 NEGROS-PANAY SUB-CABLE EX-ANTE EX-POST INTERVALS % OF TIME INTERVALS % OF TIME 2 1 1 11 1.19 0.60 0.60 6.55 1 1 12 0.60 0.60 7.14

PRICING CONDITIONS
TABLE 11. FREQUENCY OF PRICING CONDITIONS, LUZON
DATE Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 AP AP VALID RTD VALID 12 12 11 11 10 19 23 98 PEN 12 12 13 13 14 5 1 70 VALID 24 23 24 21 24 24 23 163 RTX MRR 1 3 1 5 PEN/MRR

TABLE 12. FREQUENCY OF PRICING CONDITIONS, VISAYAS

DATE Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 AP RTD VALID 21 23 24 22 23 24 23 160 PEN 3 1 2 1 1 8 VALID 23 23 24 21 24 24 23 162 RTX MRR 1 1 3 1 6

- TRADING HOURS AFFECTED BY MARKET INTERVENTION (MI) - TRADING HOURS WITH NO PEN OR MI

- TRADING HOURS ISSUED WITH PRICING ERRORS

TABLE 13. REASON FOR EX-ANTE PRICING ERRORS, LUZON

LUZON, EX-ANTE PEN DATE Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 UGEN VOLL 1 3 1 5 CONT 12 12 13 13 14 5 69 BC 1 1 2 PSM 1 1 ERR 1 1

TABLE 14. REASON FOR EX-ANTE PRICING ERRORS, VISAYAS

VISAYAS, EX-ANTE PEN DATE Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 UGEN VOLL 1 2 1 4 CONT BC 2 2 PSM 1 1 ERR 1 1

TABLE 15. REASON FOR EX-POST PRICING ERRORS, LUZON

LUZON, EX-POST PEN DATE Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 UGEN VOLL CONT UGEN 3 3 - UNDER-GENERATION - NODAL VALUE OF LOST LOAD - CONTINGENCY CVC VOLL CONT BC 1 1 PSM ERR 1 1 2

TABLE 16. REASON FOR EX-POST PRICING ERRORS, VISAYAS

VISAYAS, EX-POST PEN DATE Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 BC PSM ERR UGEN 3 3 - BASE CASE CVC - SUBJECTED TO THE PRICE SUBSTITUTION METHODOLOGY - ERRONEOUS INPUT OR SNAPSHOT INFORMATION VOLL CONT BC 1 1 PSM ERR 1 1 2

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Weekly Summary Report

MUST-RUN UNITS
TABLE 17. INTERVALS WITH MUST-RUN UNIT (MRU) EVENTS
DATE Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 LUZON 24 24 24 24 24 23 23 166 DAILY TOTAL OF MRU EVENTS PER GRID (LUZON AND VISAYAS). MRU EVENTS REFER TO OCCURRENCES IN WHICH GENERATING UNITS ARE DESIGNATED BY THE SYSTEM OPERATOR AS MUST-RUN UNITS FOR CERTAIN TRADING INTERVALS. SOURCE: NGCP LUZON SYSTEM OPERATIONS AND VISAYAS SYSTEM OPERATIONS VISAYAS 11 2 8 3 35 11

Week 34: 12-18 August 2013

GRAPH 13. HOURLY PROFILE OF MRU EVENTS

LUZON HOURLY FREQUENCY OF MRU EVENTS 5 VISAYAS

HOURLY TOTAL OF MRU EVENTS

TABLE 18. MRU EVENTS, LUZON

DATE Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 THERMAL RESERVE TOTAL 24 24 24 24 24 23 23 166 THERMAL RESERVE VOLTAGE COM/REG 24 24 24 24 24 23 23 166 OTHERS -

TABLE 19. MRU EVENTS, VISAYAS

DATE Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 VOLTAGE COM/REG TOTAL 11 11 2 8 8 40 THERMAL 9 11 2 6 28 RESERVE 7 7 VOLTAGE 2 2 1 5 COM/REG OTHERS -

- THERMAL LIMITS OF TRANSMISSION LINE AND/OR POWER EQUIPMENT - INADEQUATE RESERVE LEVEL

- SYSTEM VOLTAGE REQUIREMENT - COMMERCIAL OPERATION OR REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS

OTHER NOTABLE MARKET HIGHLIGHTS THAT AFFECTED MARKET CONDITIONS

1. AUTOMATIC LOAD DROPPING (ALD) OCCURRED AT THE MERALCO AND NGCP FEEDERS ON 18 AUGUST 2013 AS A RESULT OF THE TRIPPING OF CALACA 1. 2. KABANKALAN-BACOLOD LINES 1 AND 2 AND THE NEGROS-PANAY SUBMARINE CABLE TRIPPED ON 18 AUGUST 2013. LOAD AT THE NEGROS AND PANAY ISLANDS WERE RESTORED SOON AFTER.

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