Las falacias de la planeacin estratgica Un experto ha sido definido como alguien que evita todas las trampas en su camino

hacia la gran falacia. Para la planeacin estratgica, la gran falacia es esto: la planeacin estratgica es una estrategia de trabajo. sta misma falacia se apo!a en tres asunciones falaciosas: sta prediccin es posible, esta estrategia pueden ser distintas

"n expert has been defined as someone #ho avoids tha man! pitfalls on hi sor her #a! to the grand fallac!. $or strategic planning, the grand fallac! is this: because anal!sis encompasses s!nthesis, strategic planning is strategic ma%ing. &his fallac! itself rests on three fallacious assumptions: that prediction is possible, that strategists can be detached from the subjects of their strategies, and, above all, that the strateg!'ma%ing process can be formali(ed. &he fallac! of prediction. "cording to the premises of strategic planning, the #orld is supposed to hold still #hile a plan is being developed and then sta! on the predicted course #hile that plan is being implemented. )o# else to explain those loc%step schedules that have strategies appearing on the first of june, to be approved b! the board of directors on the fifteenth* +ne can just picture competitors #aiting for the board,s approval, speciall! if the! are japanese and dont believe in such planning to begin #ith. -n ./01, -gor "nsoff #rote in his influencial boo% 2orporate 3trateg!, 45e shall refer to the period for #hich the firm is abble to construct forecasts #ith an accurac! of, sa!, plus or minus 67 percent as the planning hori(on of the firm.8 5hat an extraordinar! statement9 )o# in the #orld can an! compan! %no# the period for #hich it can forecast #ith a given accurac!* &he evidence, in fact, points to the contrar!. 5hile certain repetitive patterns, such as seasons, ma! be predictable, the forecasting of discontinuities, such as technological innovation or a price increase, is virtuall! impossible. +f course, some people sometimes 4see8 such things coming. &hat is #h! #e call them 4visionaries8. :ut the! create their strategies in much more personali(ed and intuitive #a!s.