ORE RESERVE ESTI MATI ON

METHODS, MODELS AND REALI TY

P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e S y mp o s i u m s p o n s o r e d b y
T h e Ge o l o g y Di v i s i o n o f Cl M,
a n d h e l d i n Mo n t r e a l , Q u e b e c ,
Ma y 1 O - 1 1 , 1 9 8 6
Edi t ed by M. Dav i d, R. Fr oi dev aux , A. J . Si nc l ai r and M- Val l 6e
THE CANADI AN
I NSTI TUTE
OF MI NI NG AND METALLURGY
135
A COTTPARATIVE STUDY OF
GMSTATISTICAL AI{D COTil/ENTIONAI, HETHODS OF
ESTTilATTNG RESER\IES AND
QUhLrrr
IN A THIN @AL SE,AT'T
P. J. HANNON and
Nova Scotia Elepartment
of Mi nes and Erergy
ABSTRACT
Thi s
paper gi ves the resul ts of a
compari -son of three methods of esti -
mat i ng coal r eser ves and qual i t y ( ash,
sul phur and energy content) at the now
mined out Novaco Poi.nt Aconj. opencast
mi ne i n Cape Breton, Nova Scoti a. The
accuracy i n predi cti ng the reserves
and qual i t y of t he i n si t u coal
r esour ces, as wel l as t he accur acy i n
sel ect i ng economi cal l y mi neabl e coal
is compared with the tonnage and
qual i t y of coal act ual l y mi ned.
The three esti mati on techni ques
compared were:
1rc1-ygon;
i nver se-di s tance- squared
wei ghti ng; and
kr i gi ng.
The coal r eser ve was f i r st est i -
mated usi ng di amond dri l l hol e data
avai l abl e pri or to the commencement of
mi ni ng. Thi s study found that al l
esti mati ng techni ques overesti mated
the tonnage; the polygon method bY
23*
|
the i nverse-di stance-squared by
26* and kri gi ng by onl y 12*.
A second est i mat e usi ng al l
avai l abl e dr i l l hol e dat a was made,
and agai n the three methods overesti -
nated the tonnage, thi s ti me bY 1 4t
'
1 1 t a n d 4 t .
The accuracy i n sel ecti ng econom-
i cal l y mi neabl e coal was st udi ed i n
one area. The tonnage actual l y mi ned
vtas computed f rom channe I sample s
taken duri ng the mi ni ng cycl e. Thi s
\'ras comlnred to the esti'rnated tonnage
predi cted by the three methods, agai n
usi ng dr i l l hol e dat a avai l abl e
pr i or
1985 CI M Sl t mPosi um
Or e r eser ve est i mat i - on:
met hods, model s and r eal i t Y.
H. G. SHERWOOD
Techni cal - Uni versi ty
of Nova Seoti a
t o mi ni ng and t hen al l avai l abl e dr i l l
hol e data. A11 three methods i ndi -
cated a reasonabl y cl ose approxi mati on
of the tota1 amount of coal avai l abl e
however , t he i ndi vi dual bl ock est i -
mates were superi or when predi cted by
the i nverse-di stance-squared method
and kr i gi ng.
The importance of a sound geolog-
i cal base i s emphasi zed. The coal i s
found i n the Pennsyl vani an l tori en
Group Sydney t' tain
( garbour
) Seam . At
Poi nt Aconi , the SYdneY Mai n Seam i s
actual l y two seams separated by a thi n
mudstone
parti ng. The top seam i s
l ocal l y absent , ei t her because of
er osi on or non dePosi t i on. The
fai l ure to take the di sconti nuous
nature of the top seam into account
woul d l ead to a consi derabl e over-
est i mat i on of t he coal r eser ve.
RESU![E
Ce papi er donne l es r6sul tats
d
I
une comparai son de troi s rnethodes
d
t
esti mati on des reserves de charbon
et de l eur qual i t d
(
cendr e, souf r e et
contenu cal ori fi que )
a l a mi ne de
Novaco a Poi nt Aconi a CaP Bretont
Nouvel l e- Ecosse. Lr exact i t ude des
pr edi ct i ons des r 6". t r r . s et l e qual i t d
des r esour ces
"i n
si t u" de char bont
aussi
ql ue 1r exaeti tude a sel ecti onner
le charbon
qui est dconorniQU
r
sont
compares avec l e tonnage et qual i td du
charbon mi ne en rdal i t5,
Les troi s techni ques comparees
sont :
la mdthode des
lnlYgiones;
l a mdthode des di stances
136
car r d i nver ses
l a m6t hode geost at i st i que de
kri geage ,
Les r eser ves de char bon ont 6t 6
premi drement estj -m6es avec l -es donnees
de forage qui etai ent connues avant l _e
commencement de mi nage. Cette dtude a
/
trouve que toutes l es methodes ont
suresti me l e tonnaget l a methode des
pol ygones par
23t
r .
l a met hode char gd
des di st ances ""r r J" i nver ses par
262
|
et l a *6thod" de kri geage par
seul ement 12*"
Une seconde est i mat i on, ut i l i sant
toutes l es donnees de forage connues,
/ .
/ -
a et d f ai t e
o
et l es t r oi s mdt hodes ont
encore suresti mds l es r6"*rrre=, cette
f oi s par
14* , 11* , et 4* .
Les esti mati ons de qual i tJ du
char bon ( cendr e, souf r e et cont enu
cal ori fi que) i ndi quent un model e sem-
bl abl e, quoi que l es val eur s est i mds et
l es val eur s r eel s sont pl us pr es, avec
1r exceptj -on du contenu de eendre .
Lr exact i t ude de l a s5l ect i on du
charbon economi que a 6td etudi J dans
un endroi t. L tonnage qui a 6td mi n6
a 6t6 eval ud avec l es donnees des
echant i l l ons en voi esn pr i s en cour s
de mi nage. Un comparai son entre ce
resul tat et l es tonnages esti mds par
l es t r oi s *6t hod. " a 6& f ai t e
r
n se
ser vant des donnees de f or aEes ut i l i s-
abl e avant l e mi nage, et de t out es l es
donndes de f or age ut i l i sabl es. Les
troi s mdthodes ont toutes i ndi qudes un
approxi mati on rai sonnabl e pour l e
t onnage, mai s l es est i mat i ons des
bl ocs i ndi vi duel s sont r nei l l eur s avec
l es *6thod*s des di stances carr6s
i nverses et du kri geagre .
Lr i mpor t ance dr un base gSol ogi que
solide est appuyd. T-,e charbon se
trouve dans l e groupe Mori en, de I' Age
Pennsyl vani an, dans l a couche Sydney
I r {ai n
( havr e) . A Poi nt Aconi , l a
couche Sydney t{ai n est en fai t deux
couches, ="p.r6s
Par
une mi nce couche
argi l d . L6l couche en haut n
I
est pas
cont i nue, a cause de 1t dr osi on ou
parce que le charbon nr a pas 6t6
depose a cer t ai ns endr oi t s. A\ def aut
de f ai r e at t ent i on a ce di sposi t i on
di scont i nu de I a couche sup6r i eur e, un
sures ti mati on consi der abLe
INTRODUCTION
The purpose of thi s paper i s to
eval uate the coal reserve esti mati .on
techni que used i n Nova Scoti a and to
pr esent t he r esul t s of a det ai l ed
com;rari son of esti mati on methods f,or
the coal reserve of the Novaco Poi nt
Aconi opencast coal mi ne "
Novaco Poi nt Aconi mi ne i s near
the western edge of the Sydney coal -
f i el dr or Boul ar der i e I s1and, appr oxi -
mat el y 18 km nor t hwest of Sydney, Nova
Scot i a
( r i gur e
1 ) . The coal mi ned i s
from the Sydney Mai n
(Harbour)
seam,
one of the mi neabl e seams of the 2000
m thi ck
r
Pennsyl vani an age Mori en
Group.
Bet ween 1 9BO and ear l y 1 985,
875 578 tonnes of thermal coal were
shipped from the mine to the Lingan
generati ng stati on of the Nova Scoti a
Power Corporati on, The wei ghted aver-
age qual i ty of thi s coal over the fi ve
year per i od was 24. 75 t al
Bq
( 1O
, 642
Bt u/ l b" ) , 4. ' 79* s ul l phur and 16. 11t
as h.
The ori gi nal tonnage and qual i tY
esti mate for the rni ne was 925 300
t onnes of coal gr adi ng 27 . 45 MJ
/ kg ,
5. 0t sul phur and 1 6. 4t ash.
The cl ose agreement between the
esti mate and the actual val ues i s
sornewhat mi sl eadi ng ' The ori gi nal -
overal l stri p rati o was esti mated to
be 1' l . 4: 1
( U3/ t onne coal ) ; however ,
t he act ual r at i o was cl oser t o 16: 1.
The hi gher stri p rati o was requi red to
make up for thinner than expected coal
i n the ori gi nal
Pl an
drl o
I n August of 1 983 a di scussi on
paper on the appl i cabi l i ty
of usi ng
geostati sti cs to the Sydney coal fi el d
was r el eased bY CAI {I ' i ET
( 1) . Thi s
paper used data from the Novaco Point
Aconi
pi t to obtai n a kri Eed maP of
the coal thi ckness, and suggested that
the esti mati on techni que mi ght be use-
ful as a rnapping aid fot the geoteeh-
ni cal f eat ur es of t he coal f i el d. The
Nova Scotia Department of l' lines and
Energy and the Techni cal Uni versi ty
of
Nova Scotia
(
tmqs )
undertook
a com-
parati ve study of reserve esti rnati ng
methods usi ng the Novaco Poi nt Aconi
dr i I l hol e dat a. r5*er. r"s de charbon resul t erai t .
des
137
F i g u r e 1 .
GEOLOGICAL FRAMEI{ORK
The Novaco
point
Aconi reserve
occurs i n the Sydney D.tai n Seam, near
the western edge of the Sydney coal
basi n. The Sydney Mai n Seam i s one of
a dozen si gni fi cant coal seams i n the
upper part of the
pennsyl vani an
Mori en
Seri es of Westphal i an C and D age
( 2,
3) . Fi ve ki - l omet er s t o t he west ,
the Pennsyl vani an i s i n faul t contaet
with the
precambrian
George River
Series and the Cape Breton ltighlands
(
2) . ttre coal secti on di ps gentl y to
the northeast under the Atlantie
Ocean.
ttre axis of ttre Boisdale anti-
el i ne trends northeast aeross the
western edge of the Novaco
pi t, but i n
general the structure of the property
i s very si mpl e. fhe Mori en Group
i s
cover ed by 12 t o 1 5 m of sur f i ci al
t i l l l n t he mi ne ar ea.
Hacquebard and Donaldson
(
3 )
reported on the environment of coal
del nsi ti on i n the Sl dney Basi n and
eoneluded that the eoal aecumulated
from forest-moor and reed-moor vegeta-
ti on i n a f l ood pl -ai n
envi ronment
L E G E N D
f r - I
l ' , l o r i e n Se r r e s , Pt y c h o c o r p u s u n r t u s t o n e { An l h r o c o my o r d n e )
L
l f
l
q r e y s c n d s i o n e o n d s h o l e , t h r n b e d s o f l r e s h w o t e r l r me s l o n e ,
I n l e r c o l o l e d r e d b e d s , w o r k o b l e c o o l s e o ms
t , * - - l
Mo r e n S e r i e s , L r n o p l e I s o b l r q u o z o n : g r e y o r k o s i c q r r t o n d
s o n d s t o n e , s o me s h o l e o n c c o n g l o me r o l e , o f e w r e d b e d s , o l e w
wo r k o b l e c o o l s s o ms
T - l Z
- l
Mo r r e n S e r r e s , L o n c h o p l e r r s z o n e . g r e y c o o g l o me r o l e , o r k o s i c
I
' *
I g r r l o n d s h o l e , o l e w r e d b 0 d s , l h r n c o o l s e o ms
charaeteri zed by rapi d subsi dence and
earl y buri al of peat beds. There rdere
two maj or ri vers traversi ng t-hi s f l ood
pl ai n, al ong wi th numerous snaLl -er
streams now preserved as sandstone
channel s. The coal s r est on a cl ay
bed which contain the pl-ant root
syst ems" The occasi onal coal f i el d
tree i s sti l l standi ng upri ght i n the
coal bed "
Condi ti ons were not uni form
across the Basi n duri ngr the growth of
t he veget at i on
( 3) ; par t s of t he Basi n
were thri vi ng whi l e other areas mi ght
be covered with mud. The higher
ground was Located in the western part
of t he Basi n
( poi nt
Aconi ar ea) , and a
eommon characteri sti e here i s that the
seams spl i t or subdi vi de and event-
ual l y pi nch out.
At Point Aconi the SydneY t' tain
Sean i s actual l y two se;rns seSnrated
by a thin mudstone
trnrting.
lrhe
deposi t was eut by a ri ver duri ng
peat
deposi ti on as evi deneed by the sand-
stone channel near the eastern edge of
the mi ned area ( Fi gure 2l . Fi gure 3
i s a cross-seeti on
throuEh the
deposi t . Cr oss- bedded sands ar e evi -
\9 \'
r ? !
r \ i
\ ,
\ ^
t i l
, ?
l 6
IE
\ - o
\<
'r$e^
)-l{?
!:?
*i
r M I N E S
Po i n t Ae o n i l o c a t i o n r n a p e h o wi n g t h e g e n e r a l
g e o l o g y , N o v a c o o p e n c a s t mi n e a n d a d j a c e n t c o a l
r n i n e o p e r a t i o n s o
dent thror.l gh much of the secti on,
i ndi -cati ng a del tai c envi ronment.
lftre bottorn coal horizon at Point
Aconi has an ari ttrrnetic average thick-
ness of 0. 65 m as measur ed f r om dr i l l
hol e sampl es. The top seam averages
( f r om
dr i l l hol e sampl es) 0. 43 m i n
t hi ckness but i s onl y l oeal l y pr esent ,
general l y i n the eastern part of the
mi ne area. Where the parti ng i s pre-
sent , t he par t i ng var i es f r om 0. 03 m
t o 1. 23 r r r eyr i t e i s common at t he
top of the coal seams and i n the part-
ing " tlost of the sulphur comes f rom
pyrite, although some couLd come from
cal ci um sul phat e mi ner al s l qypsum) .
At the Li ngan Mi ne, Agterberg and
Chung
(4)
found that the top 25 em of
138
Fi g u r e 2 .
( We s t
h a l f )
a 2.21 m secti on of the Harbour Searn
(
Sydney iltain seam )
had 3 . 7 3* sulphur
'
whi l e the remai nder of the secti on
cont ai ned 2. 5*. Sul Phur i n t he t oP
sect i on was der i ved f r om pyr i t e ( 71t )
'
organi cs
(ZZ*) and gypsum (
7t ) . The
l oroer
' !
.96 m of the seam contai ned
onl y pyr i t e ( Sgt of t ot al sul phur ) and
or gani c sul phur
( 4t t ) .
The ash content of the coal- at
poi nt
Aconi i s vari abl e
r
i ncreasi ng
from the niddle of the mined area to
the east and west. Ni l r the western
edgre of the mined area the ash content
approaehes 30t, as the top seam di s-
appears through
pi nch out or erosi -on.
The coal- from the Sydney lltain Seam is
a hi qh vol ati l e bi tumi nous eoal wj - th
l-oj
o
o
rl)
a
td
o
O
o
rf)
UJ
O
o
rf)
rf
lrJ
o
o
o
(f,
LJ
o
o
F
ro
2 500
2000 N
t 500 N
L39
o
o
(I)
l"*
IJ
o
o
rO
f-
LrJ
o
o
o
ft*
IJ
o
O
tO
(o
Ld
o
o
o
(o
Ar eol ext ent of t op seom
o 200 400
l t t t
. _ l
met r es
F i g u r e 2 .
hi qh ash and hi qh sul phur, accordi ng
t o t he AST! {
( 5)
cl assi f i cat i on of
coaLs.
I.{ININc
Itre topsoil and till were removed
using Caterpillar 627r_ tandem-powered
wheel tractor scrapers, except near
the edge of the pit rv?rere Cat D-10
dozers removed the overburden. l-tining
began with a down dip box-cut at the
eastern edge of the property, then
mi ni ng progressed usi ng al ong-stri ke
strips. fhe rock above ttre coal was
l i qht l y bl ast ed t o wi t hi n 0. 25 m of
the top of the coal , usi ng ANFO l oaded
i nt o
250 mm di annet er hol es dr i l l ed on
2500 N
2000 N
I 5 OO N
a 5 m by 6.' l m
trnttern.
A
Powder
factor of approxi matel y O.2 kq AHrO/m3
was used.
The rock was then removed using a
Bueyrus-Eri e Model - 38O W wal ki ng drag-
line . The dragline rernoved the rock
to wi thi n about A"2 m of the toP of
the coal . The remai ni ng rock was
cl eared usi ng a smal l dozer " {the coal
was then mi ned usi ng a Caterpi l l ar 235
excavator, )-oadi ng i nto 10 t tandem-
wheeled dunp trucks. The eoal \tas
taken to the on-site plant where it
$ras crushed and stacked for transport
to the Nova Scotia Power Corporation
gener at i nq st at i on at Li nqan.
POI NI T ACONI OPEN CAST
COAL MI NE
(
NOVACO LI M I T ED )
N T S I I . K - 8 Ap r i l 1 9 8 5
T h e o u t l i n e o f t h e r mi n e d o u t a r e a s o f t h e N o v a c o
p i t , d r i 1 1 h o l e l o c a t i o n s a n d t o p o g r a p h i c a l
f , e a t u r s .
SCOTI A DEPARTMENT
MI NES AND ENERGY
F i g u r e 3 .
140
A g r i d s o u t h - n o r t h r
t h r o u g h t h e e a s t e r n
c r o s s s e c t i o n
(
l o o k i n g w e s t )
p o r t i o n o f t h e No v a c o p i t "
AVAILABLE DATA
The or i gi nal r eser ve est i mat i on
for Novaco used i nformati on from three
set s of dr i l l - hol - e dat a.
The Department of l l i nes dri l l ed a
ser i es ( 5
hol es, D- Ser i es) of hol es i n
the area duri .ng the 1 960' s . A second
ser i es of hol es ( t S hol es, R- Ser i es)
was dr i l l ed i n 197 4, and t he t hi r d
ser i es of 15 hol es was dr i l l ed and
q
t est pi t s wer e dug i n 1979 and 1980.
On1-y the hol es dri l l ed after 1979
r"ere
geophysi eal l y 1-ogged. The average
core recovery i n the coal secti on rdas
i n the order of 80*. A further 28
di amond dri 11 hoLes were dri l l ed i -n
1 980 and 1 981 and, i n addi t i on, r ot ar y
holes vrere dri lled through the coal
pri or to each bl ast to test for the
top of ttre coal hori zon. Tabl e 1
summari zes the dri l l hol e data avai l -
abl e for ttre reserve esti mates. The
data avai l abl e for the reserve esti -
nate i .s certai nLy l -ess than i deal ; not
an uncommon si tuati on i n the mi ni ng
i ndustryt
COAL RESERVE ESTII.{ATION PRESENTLY USED
IN NOVA SCOTIA
The Department of lt{ines and
Energy presentl y uses the pol ygon
method to esti -mate coal reserves r The
maxi mum
di stance between obeervati on
poi nt s conf or ms t o t he Cl assj - f i cat i on
for Coal - Resources and Reserves of
Canada
(
6) . ttti s maxi rnum di stanee
depends upon the eharacteri sti cs of
the seam bei ng eval uated: the thj -ck-
ness of the seun, the resource cate-
gory, and whether or not the seam i s
on shore. Por the Sydney Mai n Seam,
thi s di stance i s a maxi mum of 800 m
for the measured cateEoryo and 1 600 m
for the i ndi eated category of resource
cl assi f i cat i on.
For the
poi nt
Aconi deposi e, the
average dri l l - hol e spaei -ng at the ti me
of the i ni ti al reserve cal cul -ati on was
117 m; however , t he r ange of di st ance
between drill holes ltas f,ron 50 rn to
over 600 rr o Even so
r
al l of the coal
vras el assed i .n the measured category.
COMPARJATIVE STUDY OF RESERVE ESTI},IATES
the compari son studY esti rnated
the eoal reserve and
qual-ity in the
area actmal Ly mi ned, usi ng ttre ori gi -
nal di annond dri l l data for sul phur,
ash, energy content and eoal thi ekness
(
table 1 )
. ttre methods used \,tere the
lnlygon
method, the inverse distance
squar ed met t r od
( r . D" s. ) , and t he kr i g-
i ng rnethod of geostati sti es. Tabl e 2
summari zes the resul ts of the esti -
mat es usi ng t he dr i l L hol e i nf or mat i on
avai l abLe
pri or to producti on, and the
est i mat es usi ng al - 1 avai l abl - e dr i l - 1
[ FEl
over bur den
tr-:1 shol e
"
EC
shot e ond sondst one
hI l
si rt srone
IFJ
,onostone
iff
=-'*#'
. . : . _. \ ----
+,':ii:Itn
::
ji:ir,
.,: j:L,.ti ji
j j';..
iir':.i:#-
I =' l ' t ooi r i ci i on
:
illr-...ji.--]fl'
**..ti
.
.1.,:j j,t
i: i ir,.. i ;i.it:..,
r a..----TF
7. 2o/ o Ash
4 37o S
32 63 MJ, / k g
r! 1: i . : : : . . : : : . : . : . r: : . : . j : 1i : I : -F. !
: 1:
i : r: : : t 1 : i : i i
: : : , : rrj i rr
j r: j j
i
, j . : , : : : ; : i : . . . . : . . . . . ,
.
: . : . ' r i r i . . . . . : . ' . . . . . . . . ' -
No v o Sc o l i o De o o r l me n f o f Mi n e s o n d E
I : i l : J j j . :
' ' .
. r : .
mel r es
t oo
No v o c o Po i n l Ac o n i Op e n c o s t
C o o l Mi n e
G E O L O G I C A L C R O S S
- S E C T I O N
P. Honnon
L4L
. r oo
. o75
t r r nl
. o50
.o2
. oo238
t rt n t
o. o2
o. ol
F i g u r e 4 .
COAL THI CKNESS
TOP SEAM
FI RST HOL ES
294 44?
h
( m )
COAL TH. I CKNESS
TOP SEAM
AL L HOL ES
COAL THI CKNESS
LOWER SEAM
FI RST HOLES
274 4t O 347 684
h
( m )
COAL THI CKNESS
LOWER SEAM
ALL HOLES
t 47
t 37
I ( h )
COAL ENERGY
tr(
30.
20.oo
h )
t 37 274 412 549
h
( m )
o.05
o.o4
o. o3
5. OO
4. OO
300
Tt n t
2.OO
l . oo
COAL SUL PHUR
189 284 379 471
l sr zt ' +
qt c'
h ( m )
h
( m )
Se mi v a r i o g r a m
n o d e l s b a s e d o n t h e d r i l L h o l e d a t a
a v a i l a b l e
p r i o r t o t h e p r o d u e t i o n d e e i s i o n
( f i r s t
h o l e s )
a n d o n a l l a v a i l a b l e d r i 1 1 h o l e d a t a . Th e
s e mi v a r l o g r a n s
f o r a s h , e n e r g y a n d s u l p h u r a r e
b a s e d o n t h e f i r s t d r i l l h o l e s o n l y . T h e l a t e r
h o l e s we r e n o t a s s a y e d f o r t h e e e v a r i a b l e s .
h
( m )
r 37 274 412 549 686
h
( m
)
r42
TABLE 1
ST'UI{ARY OF NOVACO POINT ACONI OPENCAST I'IINE DRILL }IOLf, SAHPLE DATA
- - * No t p r e s e n t
NA * i No t a s s a Y e d
H o l e
Nu n b e r
S e a m r h i ? k n e s s ( m) .
To p
I
Bo t t o m
I
A s h
( r )
s u l p h u r
( t )
E n e r g Y
( l . { J/ Ks )
D 2 3
D 2 4
D 2 5
D 2 6
D 2 7
R - 1
R - 1 8
R - 1 8
R - 1 C
R - 2
R - 2 B
R - 2 B
R - 3
R - 3
R - 3 8
R - 4
R - 4 8
R - 4 8
R - 4 C
R- 5
R- 5
R - 5 8
R - 5 8
R- 6
R- 7
R- 8
R- 9 F
1 - 7 9
' t - 7 9
2 - 7 9
2 - " 1 9
3 - 7 9
4 - 7 9
4 - 7 9
5 - 7 9
6 - 7 9
7 - 7 9
7 - 7 9
B- ' t 9
9 - 7 9
1 0 - 7 9
5 - B 0
6 - 8 0
7 - 8 0
8 - 8 0
1 0 - 8 0
1 - 8 1
2 - 8 1
3 - 8 1
4 - 8 1
5 - 8 1
6 - 8 1
7 - 8 1
8 - 8 1
9 - 8 1
1 0 - 8 1
1 1 - 8 1
l 2 - 8 1
1 - 8 1 4
2 - 8 1 A
3 - 8 1 4
4 - 8 1 A
5 - 8 1 A
6 - 8 1 A
g - 8 1 A
9 - 8 1 4
1 O- T A
' l
t
- TA
1 2 - T A
1 4 - T A
1 5 - T A
1 6 - T A
1 7 - T A
_ _ r
I
0 . 7 3
|
0 . 5 6
|
0 . 4 1
|
0 " 4 8
I
o . z a
o . 5 8
|
o , s s
o . 6 7 |
I
o . s s
I
o . 8 0
o . G 4 | o . r z
o . G s
I
I
o . e z
o . s 2
I
|
0 . 7 3
0 . 1 e
I
o . 2 4
|
0 . 7 e
0 . 8 6
|
|
1 . 1 s
o . 1 6 | 0 . 9 5
o . 2 7
I
I o . 2 2
o . 3 4
|
I 0 . 6 7
I
o . e r
I
o . s s
o . s 2
|
o . : r
|
0 . 4 3
o . 4 3
|
I
0 . 5 4
0 . 2 8 |
0 " 3 6
o . a 2
0 . 5 8
I o . e t
I
o . r z
I
o . s s
0 . 6 1
|
| 0 . 7 3
I
o . z o
o . 2 4
|
o . 7 e
|
0 . 7 0
| 1 . 2 6
o . s o
I
o . e a
o . 4 s
I
o . e s
o . 4 6 | O . 6 5
I
r . z a
o . 4 s
I
o . 6 0
o . 4 s
I
o . e o
o . 5 0
|
o . 6 s
o . 4 0
|
o . 5 0
o . 4 s
I
o . s z
0 . 3 s
I
0 . 6 3
o . 4 8
I
0 . 6 0
|
0 . s e
I
o . s z
I
o . 7 o
I
o . z o
I
o . e z
o . 4 o
I
o . 6 s
o , 3 s I o . e s
o . 3 1 | o . z s
I
o " z r
I
o . s 4
I
o . z s
|
0 . 6 2
I o . 8 1
I
o. es
I
0 . 6 2
I
o - z s
I
o . z o
I
o . e r
I
o . o a
I 0 . 5 9
9 . 4 2
9 . 1 4
9 . 5 8
1 0 . 5
9 . 8 2
1 5 . O
' |
1 . 2 0
8 . 9 0
6 . 4 0
7 . O O
1 5 . 9
8 . 4 0
1 8 . O
6 . 8 0
4 5 . 5 0
7 . . 2
2 0 . 4
8 . 5 0
r 3 . 1 9
1 0 . 8
2 1 . A
5 . 9
1 0 . 3
9 " 1 0
1 1 . 7
1 6 . 5
NA
1 4 . 3
7 " 6 0
1 0 . 6
1 0 . 4
9 . 1 0
9 . 4 0
4 . 1 0
NA
1 0 . 3
2 3 . 4
2 s . 2
1 5 . 9
NA
NA
NA
NA
N A
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
N A
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
6 . 1 5
I
N A * *
4 . s 8
I
2 2 . 0 8
7 . A A I 2 2 . 0 8
6 . 6 o
I
z z . o e
5 . 3 6
I
2 2 . 0 8
2 . 2 0
|
2 2 . 0 8
5 . 5 0
|
2 e . 1 s
3 . 8 0
|
2 2 . o o
3 , 7 o
I
r o " z s
3 . 6 0
|
3 1 . 4 4
6 . e o
I
z o " r r
3 . 5 0 | 2 9 . 1 9
5 . 4 0 | z t . t z
3 . 3 0 | a o . e z
e . 3 0 | e . r r
4 . 3 0
|
: z . e r
1 1 . 0 | z a . t e
4 . 4 0
|
: r . o o
4 . 5 2
|
z a . t s
5 . 3 0
|
3 0 . 2 e
4 . 4 0
|
2 6 . 5 ' 7
4 . 2 0 | 3 0 . 9 o
3 . e o
I
z a . z o
s . 1 o
I
z s . s t
6 . 2 o
I
2 e . 1 3
9 . 0 0 | 2 8 . . 2 1
N A I * o
7 . 6 7 I
- -
4 . 1 8
|
- -
7 . 9 0 | 2 e . 2 6
4 . 2 0
|
2 s . a 7
4 . 7 3 | 2 9 . 0 8
G. 3 8
|
z a . z e
1 . 4 8 | 3 0 . 5 8
N A l " o
5 . 8 4
|
2 8 . 2 3
B . T B
I
8 . 7 0
|
2 2 . e 6
6 . 8 6
|
2 7 . 3 1
N A I * o
N A l " o
N A I N A
N A I * o
N A I N A
N A l " o
N A I N A
N A I * o
N A l n n
N A l n a
N A I * o
N A I N A
N A l " o
N A l n o
N A I N A
N A I N A
N A l n o
N A I N A
N A I N A
N A I N A
N A I N n
N A l x e
N A l n o
N A I N A
N A I N A
N A l n n
N A l n o
N A I N A
N A I N A
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
t
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
L43
T A B L E 2
COMP A RI S ON OF COA L E S T I MA T I ON ME T HODS
NOV A CO P OI NT A CONI DE P OS I T
l 4e t hod
U s i n g t h e
P o I y g o n s
r . D . s .
r r i g i n g
A c t u a I
Po I y g o n s
I . D . S .
x r i g i n g
A c t u a I
Po I y g o n s
I . D . S .
K r i g i n g
P o I y g o n s
r . D . s .
Kr i g i n g
2 5 . 5 5
2 5 . 9 8
2 5 . 9 1
2 4 . 7 5
2 3 . 9 4
2 5 . 9 1
2 5 . 8 9
2 4 . 7 5
5 . 5 0
4 . 5 0
5 . 1 9
4 . 7 9
TABL E 3
STANDARD TZED DI FFERENCE
( E s t i n a t e d -
A c t u a l x 1 0 0 )
w
+
+
+
+
+
1 5 . 9 0
5 . 0 5
8 . 3 5
2 . 3 0
3 . 3 4
8 . 1 4
+ 3 . 2 3
+ 4 . 9 7
+ 4 . 6 9
-
3 . 2 7
+ 4 . 6 9
+ 4 . 6 1
T o n n a g e
( t o n n e s
)
F i r s t 3 5 H o l e s
E n e r g y
( MJ
/ K q
U s i n g A 1 1 H o l e s
t ' l e t hod
F i r s t H o l e s
E n e r g
Y
( MJ I K 9 )
A l t H o l e s
144
hol e dat a. l f hr e i n si t u coaL r eser ves
and
qual i ty
were esti mated, then an
est i mat ed di l ut i on of 5t was added.
(
fhi s seems a reasonabl e amount of
di l ut i on, al t hough t he possi bi l i t y
exi sts that trecovery ri ras actual l y l -ess
than 1 00t. There are no records of
t he act ual di l ut i on.
) Si nce t he
di l uti on contri butes to the sul phur
and ash content, these were adj usted
upward
5* . The di l-ution would sub-
t r act f r om t he ener gy cont ent , so t hi s
was adj usted dovrrward St.
The areal extent of the di scon-
tinuous top seam rras p1-otted on a plan
i l &pr usi ng i nf or mat i on avai l abl e af t er
the fi rst 35 hol es and then repl otted
usi ng al l dr i l l hol e i nf or mat i on est i -
mated.
' Itre
southern boundary of the
seam l s the trace of the subcrop,
while the northern boundary is the toe
of the hi ghwal l -.
POLYGON }IETHOD
Tonnage and coa I qua l ity \rere
esti mated by wei ghti ng the central
sample value by the area of a polyEon
constructed around the central sarnpl e
and extendi nE thi s hal f way to adj a-
cent sampl e si tes " Onl y that porti on
of the polygon coincident with the
area actual l y mi ned hras used. The
tonnage was esti mated fi rst and then
the coaL qual i ty \,ras determi ned by
weighting the sample value by the
t onnage. Ar r S. G" of 1. 34 was used f or
al l est i mat i on met hods"
I}WERSE DISTANCE METHOD
Bl ocks 1 OO m bY 1 0O m were used
wi th thi s nethod, i n a manner si rni l ar
to that descri bed by Ot Bri an and Wei ss
(
?) . Each val ue was esti mated for a
bl ock by consi deri ng al -l - sampl es wi th-
i n a 400 m radi us of the centre of the
bl ock.
KR.IGING
For the kri gi -ng esti mati on, seni -
vari ograms of ttre coal - thi ckness, ash,
sul phur and energy were constructed
usi ng the method of, angul "ar regul ari -
zati on
(
I )
and the method of nectang-
ul - ar r egul - ar i - zat i ons
( 9) ,
The semj - -
vari oEram data for the coal thi -ckness,
ash, sul phur and energy content are
tabul ated i n Tabl e 4. Due to the
i rreEul ar sarnpl e data, the experi -
ment al semi - vani ogr ams di spl - ay a ver l r
er r at i c var i ance, The dat a base f or a
good r eser ve est i mat i on i s cer t ai nl - y
non- i deaI , and at f i r st g1- ance a
geostati -sti cal study woul d seem to tre
a f ut i l e exer ci se. Fi gure 4
i l l ust r at es t he exper i ment al and
theoreti cal vari ogrl rns r
The experi mental senni -vari -ograms
for the seam thi -ckness, parti -cul arl -y
the semi -va.ri ogrram of the top seam,
f i r st hol eso suf f er s f r om a l aek of
cl ose spaeed sampl es. One way to
overcome thi s l ack of sampl e data
mi ght be to assi gn val ues to the
sampl e gri d baeed on a geo}ogi cal
eval uati on of the l ocati -on. Hovtever,
it was decided to make do with the
actual sampLe i nformatj -on avaj -l abl e.
The theoretical variogrrarn was
found by CANI4AT
program 227 5
(
9 ) '
whi ch searches for the semi -vari ogram
model whi ch has the best f,i t wi th the
experi mental semi -vari ogramr by l i near
r egr essi on anal - ysi s. The r el - at i ve
error between the esti mated and
observed val ues for the model s are
tabul ated, wi th the best theoreti cal
semi-variogrram curve having the best
f i t wi t h t he exper i ment al dat a,
The experi mental semi -vari -ograms
for sul phur, ash and energy were
construeted usi ng these vaLues rather
than the value tirnes the seam
thi ckness. Actual l y both nethods were
tri ed and si nce ttre aecumul ati on di d
not improve the quality of the output'
the simple value was used "
The kriging estirnation was com-
p!.eted by subdi vi di ng the deposi t i nto
seven areas, then esti mati ng the
sel eeted vari .abl e i n each drE r
Each area was in turn subdivided
i nto 15 sub-areas; ttre rni dpoi nts
of
these sub-areas were used to cal -eul ate
the covariance between the sample area
bei ng eval uated "
SFLECTTON OF MINEABLE COAL
One ar ea, bounded bY east i ng 61 00
L45
T A B T E 4
T HE ORE T I CA L V A RI OGRA MS US E D F OR K RI GT NG
F i r s t 3 5 H o l e s
C o a l T h i c k n e s s , T o p S e a n , S p h e r i c a l Mo d e l
v
0
( h ) = 0 . 0 2 6 + 0 . 0 1 5
( g
z
C o a l T h i c k n e s s , L o v r e r s e a mr S p h e r i c a l Mo d e l
U t r t l = 0 . 0 3 6 + o . o 2 B ( 3 ( h ) . - 1
( h
) 3 )
2 2 6 2 2 2 6 2
however n most bl ocks had 7 or 8. The
r esul t s of t hi s conpar i son ar e t abu-
l at ed i n Tabl e 5.
The top seam i s di sconti nuous
over of the study area. Thi s $ras
appar ent af t er t he f i r st
35 hol es and
was taken i nto aeeount for the esti -
mati on of the coal tonnagre.
Bot h t he I nD. S. and kr i gi ng
rnethods were an improvement over the
pcl l ygon method of esti mati ng tonnage n
The overal l resul ts of each method
were fai rl y good, al though the pol ygon
met hod di d ser i - ous1y over est i mat e t he
tonnage of bl ock 2-8, 9 and 1 0 and
seri ousl y underesti mate the tonnage i n
bl ock 2r 6. The I . f ) . S. and kr i gi ng
methods gave reasonabl e esti mates
ttrroughout the mi ned area.
DTSEUSSION OF RESTILTS
l l he resul ts of the compari son
study appear reasonabl e wi th the
except i on of t he est i mat e of ash. Al l
esti mati ng methods i ndi cated a l ower
ash eoal , wi th a hi gher sul phur con-
t ent .
thi s may be due to the i nel usi on
of par t i ng mat er i al as di l ut i on and
the removal of some of the sulphur
ri ch coal at the top of the seam.
Bot h t he I . D. S. and kr i gi ng ar e an
improvement over the polygon method,
although the polygon method did give a
cl ose approxi mati on of the actual
tonnage and
qual i ty v*ren al l dri l L
hol es wer e consi der ed.
The polygon method has the
advantage of si mpl i ci ty; a reasonabl e
bal l park esti mate can be produced i n
an afternoon. The method has numerous
di sadvantages, the most seri ous bei ng
the faet that the entire polygon is
esti mated by one eentral - sampl e,
i gnori ng the rel ati onshi p between
sampl es.
The i nverse di stance squared-
moving average method does take
adj acent sampl es i nt o consi der at i on;
the wei ghti ng can be adj usted by
shri nki ng or exl nndi ng the radi us of
t he ci r cl e used f or est i mat i on. The
geol ogy and sampl e var i abi l i t y t r end
may be taken i nto aecount by usi ng an
el l i pt i cal sear ch ar ea, wi t h t he
( h - )
-
1
( h ) 3 )
2 7 8 2 2 7 A
3.ll-*[gl-
C o a l T h i c k n e s s , T o p S e a m,
- f
I t t r l
= 0 . 0 1 3 + 0 . 0 2 1 ( 3 ( h )
-
1
l 2 e z t
C o a l T h i c k n e s s , L o \ , r e r S e a n , S p h e r i c a l Mo d e l
S t n l
=
0 " 0 2 8 + o . o o s
( 3 ( h )
-
1
2 4 7 4 2
S p h e r i c a l Mo d e l
S u l p h u r , S p h e r i c a l l ' { o d e l
I t r t l
= o . o o o + 2 . 6 4
( 3 (
2
A s h , S P h e r i c a l Mo d e t
f , n 1
=
o . o o o + 1 G - 4 9 ( 3
2
E n e r g y , S p h e r i e a l Mo d e l
( h ) 3 )
2 m
( h ) 3 )
4 7 4
( h )
-
1
( h ) 3 )
5 1 9 2 5 1 9
h )
3 6 0
-
1
( h ) 3 )
2 3 6 0
J
[ t r , l
= 1 5 . 6 0 + 3 . 4 1 2
( 3 ( h )
-
1
( h ) 3 )
2 5 1 . 2 2 5 ' 1 . 2
and 5700 and northi ng 1 8OO and 2O5O,
was chosen to determi ne the accuraey
wi th whi ch the esti mati on methods
couLd sel ect mi neabl e coal .
The area was subdi vi ded i nto 20
bl ocksr 350 m by 25 m
( f i gur e
5) . t he
tonnage of coal i n each bl ock was est-
imated by the three methods and then
compared to the tonnage of each bLoek
as determi ned from channel sampl es
obt ai ned dur i ng t he mi ni ng cycl e.
fn thi s ease, the pol ygon esti -
mate was made by determi ni nq the
Length of the rnid-trnint line in each
bLock that clme under the inf luence of
the dri l I pol ygons. The l ength of
thi s l i ne was rnul ti pl i ed by the
t hi ckness assi gned t o t he dr i l l
pol ygon and then the bl ock was assi gn-
ed the wei ghted average thi ekness.
A t ot al of 172 channel
samples
were avai labl_e . The number
per
mi ni ng bl - ock var i ed f r om 4 t o 1 5,
146
TABL E
A CCURA CY I N S E L E CT I ON MI NE A B L E COA L
5
OF
l -onEest ray i n the di -rectj "on of
great est cont i nui t y. The eomput er
prograami nq i s fai rl y si rnpl e and the
output i s strai Ehtforwarrl . The di s-
advantage of the I " D* S * method i s
that i t does not take the sai uPl e
vari abi l i t y of t he dePosi t
j -nt o
account
j -n
any ri gorous wd1l r The
Eeol ogi cal
trerrc{s are smoothed over
and ver y l - i t t l e i nf or mat i on i s
Eai ned
from the anal Ysi s of the outPut "
Areas of non delrcsitiorr. atre gi-ven the
average val-ue of the sampl-es within
the search ci rel e. When there are
cLust er s of samP1es, t he cLust er
wei ght tends to domi nate the esti rnate
wi t hi n t he sear ch ci - r cl e.
The kri gi -ng method does gi ve the
best l i near unbi ased esti mate of, a
r eEi onat r i zed var i abl e
( 8) whene t her e
i s no si gni f i cant t r end t o t he dat a"
Uni versal
kri gi ng can be used i f there
i s a si gni f i eant t r end.
The use of
qeost at i st i es i s
l i mi ted more by the ski l l of the user
than by the method i tsel f* The sel ec-
ti on of the theoreti cal semi vari ogram
used to kri ge the vari abl e, boundary
of t he deposi t , sear ch ar ea si - ze and
sel ecti on of kri gi ng rnethod al l -
requi re ski l "l s that are acqui red onl y
through practi ce. The software
systems no\c avai l -abl e are of, conei der-
abl e hel p, but even these
Prograns
requi re a much hi gher degree of ski l l
than does a si mpl e
pol ygon esti mate.
tdeal l y,
there shoul d be a good gri d
of sampl e data so that a vari ogram
anal ysi s can be conPl eted and, of
course, aecess to good software and
reasonabl -e cornputi ng faci l i ti es i -s
essent i al .
The extra effort and hi gher
degree of ski l -I requi red to do a
Eeo-
stati sti eal
studY of a dePosi t are
more than offset by the output gener-
ated by such a study" The variograms
generated by thi s
parti cul ar study
indieate the discontinuous
nature of
the coal in the top seam
n
and also
indicate that a regular
grid wi-th
dri l t hol es spaced about 1 50 m apart
would have been more appropriate
than
the haphazard
dri Ll - spaei ng upon whi eh
the i nvestment deci si on was xnade. The
esti mate of the tonnage, ete.
7
show"n
To n n e s
E s t i n a t e d
Fr o m
t o n n e s ( f i r s t h o l e s )
t o n n e s ( a 1 1 h o l e s )
P a n e I Ch a n n e I
S a mp l e t o n n e s
Po I y g o n I . D . S . x r i g i n g
1 r 1 5 0 0 6 0 0
6 0 0
z o q
6 0 0
7 0 0
5 5 0
1 ' 2 4 1 0 0 3 9 0 0
3 6 5 0
4 5 5 0
4 6 5 0
5 3 0 0
aeSo
1 t 3 7 1 0 0 6 8 0 0
66oo
7 7 A A
7 4 0 0
8 4 0 0
7 5 0 0
1 r 4 9 6 0 0 8 0 0 0
666'o
8 8 0 0
8 4 o O
9 5 0 0
8 6 0 0
1 , 5 1 0 1 0 0 9 6 0 0
9 0 5 0
9 3 5 0
8 5 5 0
9 0 0 0
8 6 0 0
1 , 5 9 9 0 0 7 4 0 0
E6'6'o
9 2 5 0
8 3 5 0
8 3 0 0
8 3 5 0
1 r 7 8 0 5 0
_e4qo
8 5 0 0
8 4 5 0
7 4 5 0
7 400
6 B OO
1 t 8 7 5 5 0 e_?00
8 9 0 0
8 1 0 0
tToo
68oj
6 8 0 0
1 , 9 7 3 0 0 87oj l
7 3 0 0
7 4 5 0
6 8 0 0
64. 00
6 2 0 0
1 , 1 0 4 1 5 0 4 5 0 0 .
4 4 0 0
3 8 5 0
3 4 0 0
3 6 0 0
346'0
2 , 1
2 t 2
2 , 3
6 5 0
460
2 5 0
5 5 0
5 5 0
8 0 0
7 0 0
5 3 0 0
4 B OO
4 5 0 0 2 5 0 0
2 5 0 0
4 0 5 0
3 9 5 0
2 , 4 5 4 0 0 3 1 0 0
3 1 0 0
4 9 0 0
4 8 5 0
6 1 0 0
5 7 5 0
2 , 5 6 7 5 0 3 8 0 0
3 8 0 0
6 3 5 0
6 3 0 0
7259
6 9 5 0
1 3 0 0 0
1 3 0 0 0
2 r 5 1 3 4 0 0 6 9 0 0
6t6'6'
1 2 9 p 0
1 2 0 0 0
2 t 7
2 , I
L t
6 8 0 0 9 2 0 0
7 4 0 0
6 7 0 0
6 1 0 0
6 2 5 0
6 3 0 0
7 3 0 0 1 1 2 0 q
9 0 0 0
8 0 5 0
7 1 0 0
6 9 5 0
6 7 5 0
6 9 0 0 1 2 5 0 0
7 9 0 0
8 3 0 0
7 1 0 0
7 0 5 0 .
7 1 5 0
2 , 1 O 5 4 0 0 1 2 0 0 0
- 6200
8 0 5 0
6t5o'
6 8 0 0
68oo
TOTAL 1 2 6 4 5 0
1 2 9 6 6 0
1 1 3 9 0 0
1 2 4 9 0 0
1 2 o T 5 o
L47
TABL E 5
A CCURA CY I N S E L E CT I ON OF MI NE A B I , E COA L
T o n n e s
E s t i r n a t e d
F r o m
t o n n e s ( f i r s t h o l e s )
Tf i ' i l ; ; ( al "t hol es )
P a n e I Ch a n n e I
S a n p L e t o n n e s
p o
I y g o n I . D . s , x r i g i n g
1 r 1 5 0 0 6 0 0
6 0 0
7 q o
6 0 0
7 0 0
6 5 0
1 t 2 4 1 0 0 3 9 0 0
3 6 5 0
4 5 5 0
4 5 5 0
5 3 0 0
a5"5 0
1 , 3 7 1 0 0 5 8 0 0
6 6 0 0
7 7 0 0
7 4 0 0
8 4 0 0
7 6 0 0
1 ' 4 9 5 0 0 8 0 0 0
6' bso
8 8 0 0
8 4 0 0
9 5 0 0
8 6 0 0
1 , 5 1 0 1 0 0
_9600
9 0 5 0
9 3 5 0
8 5 5 0
9 0 0 0
8 5 0 0
l r 6 9 9 0 0 7 4 0 0
5' eoo
9 2 5 , 0
8 3 5 0
8 3 0 0 .
8 3 5 0
1 r 7
1 , I
8 0 5 0 9 4 0 0
8 6 0 0
8 4 s 0
T?so
7 400
6-8O O
7 5 5 0 e2q_0
8 9 0 0
8 1 0 0
7 1 0 0
5 8 0 0
6 8 0 0
1 1 9 7 3 0 0 87 0j
7 3 0 0
7 450.
6 8 0 0
6 4 0 0
6 2 0 0
1 r 1 o 4 1 5 0 4 5 0 0
4 4 0 0
3 8 5 0
3 4 0 0
3 5 0 0
3 4 0 0
2 t 1
2 t 2 6 5 0 260-
2 5 0
5 5 0
5 5 0
8 0 q
7 0 0
2 ' 3 4 5 0 0 2 5 0 0
t s oo
4 0 5 0
3 9 5 0
5 3 0 0
4 8 0 0
2 t 4 5 4 0 0
1_1oo
3 1 0 0
4 9 0 0
4 8 5 0
6 1 0 0
5 7 5 0
2 t 5 6 7 5 0
? 8 0 0
3 8 0 0
6 3 5 0
6 3 0 0
7 250
6 9 5 0
1 3 0 0 0
1 3 oo5'
2 t 6 1 3 4 0 0 6 9 0 0
6 9 0 0
1 2 6 5 0
1 2 0 0 0
2 t 7 6 8 0 0 e 2o9
7 4 0 0
6 7 0 0
6 r O O
6250
6 3 0 0
2 , I 7 3 0 0 1 1 2 0 0
-T60o -s.q19
7 1 0 0
6 9 s O
6 7 5 0
2 t 9 5 9 0 0 1 2 6 0 0
7 9 0 0
8_300
7 1 0 0
705. O
7 1 5 0
2 t l O 6 4 0 0 1- 2ooo
6 2 0 0
8 0 5 0
6 ? 5 0
6 8 0 0
6 8 0 0
TOTAL I 2 6 { 5 0
1 2 9 5 6 0
t 1 3 9 0 0
1 27- 9, 00
1 1 7 5 0 0
1 2 4 9 0 0
1 2 0 1 5 0
Thi s i s a r epet i t i on of Tabl e 5.
lrl
o
9
@
148
2200 N
2t oo N
2000 N
t 900 N
1800 N
t 700 N
T h i s f i g u r e s h o ws t l r " a r e a o f t h e d e p o s i t u s e d t o
d e t e r mi n e t h e a e c u r a c y wi t h wh i c h t h e e s t i ma t i o n
me t h o d s mi g h t s e L e c t mi n e a b l e c o a l . T h e s h a d e d
a r e a i n d i c a t e s t h e p r e s e n e e o f t h e t o p s e a m.
tll
o
o
@
lrj
C)
o
(\I
@
t!
o
t -
(o
lrj
o
(o
(o
trJ
o
o
ro
trl
o
o
<r
(o
IJ
o
o
tf)
(o
F i g u r e 5 .
i n Tabl e Z are the most J- i keLy
val ues. A mi ni ng company mi ght demand
a hi gher confi dence l i ni t for these
val ues pr i or t o i nvest i ng mi l l i ons of
dol l ars i n the
_
venture. For thi s
particular study, the company could
have been 97. 5t assur ed of at l east
593 000 t onnes af t er t he f i r st 35
hol es had been dr i l l ed.
The importance of a good sample
data base must be emphasi zed. Aecur-
ate anal yses and measurements must be
obtai ned whenever possi bl e. Ttri s i s
parti eul arl y true of l ow grade, l ow
tonnage deposi ts where the di fference
of 1 0 or 20 cm i n thi ckness of the
deposi t mi ght mean the di fference
bet ween pr of i t and l oss.
In order to do a proper reserve
esti mate, the deposi t shoul d be
sampl ed on a regul ar gri d. Th dri l l
hol es i n the eoal hori zon must be geo-
physi cal l y l ogged and al l er i t i eal
anal yses compl et ed. Geol ogi cal
i nt er -
pretati on
must be i ncorporated i nto
al l t onnage est i mat es, i n par t i eul ar
when computer based estimation tech-
ni ques sueh as t he r . D. S. and kr i gi ng
est i mat es ar e used.
EONCLUSIONS
The esti mate of coal quanti ty and
quality at the Novaco Point Aconi
deposi t has been cornpl eted usi ng the
pol ygon met hod, t he I . D. S. movi ng
average method and the kriging method
of geost at i st i cs. Each met hod has
certai n advantages and di sadvantages.
The
geostati stical rnethod
gave the
best esti nate of the overal l tonnage
and r f ! [ ] r Bot h I . D. S. and t he kr i g-
i ng methods
gave a reasonabl e esti mate
of mi neabl e coal i n sel eet ed bl ocks.
It has been shown that each
.method
rel i es on a grood geol ogri cal data
base. fhi s data base shoul d i ncl ude
al l obtai nabl e data and shoul d
r
ds
near as possi bl e, be on a r egul ar
sampl i ng
gr i d.
I49
ACKNOWLEDG14ENTS
The authors wish to thank the
Department of hergy, Mi nes and
Resources for fundi ng thi s proj ect
under Research Agreement Number 222,
and Novaco Ltd. for permi ssi on
to
publ i sh t he r esul - t s of t hi s st udy.
REFERENCES
1 ASTON, T. R. C. , D. l l acNEr l , and
C. WHI TE, 1983r The Appl i cat i on of
Geost at i st i cs t o t he Sydney
Coal f i el d: CANMET Di scussi on Paper ,
EMR, Ottawa
2 BELL
7
W. A.
7 1 983 ,
Br as d
I
Or Sheet ,
Cape Breton and Vi ctori a Counti es,
Nova Scot i a: G. S. C. Map 359A
3 HACA- I ' EBARD, F. A. and J. R.
DONALDSON, 1 969, Carboni ferous Coal
Deposi ti on Associ ated wi th Fl ood
Pl ai n and Li mni c Envi ronments i n
Nova Scot i a! G. S. A. Speci al Paper
114 t
Er r vi r onment s of Coal
Deposi t i on
r
pp
1 43- 1 91
4 AGTERBERG, F. P. and C. F. CHUNG,
1973, Geomat hemat i eal Pr edi ct i on of
Sul phur i n Coal
r
New Li ngan Mi ne
Ar ea, Sydney Coal f i el d: CI t {
Bul - l et i n
, Oet . 1973
5 Ameri can Soci ety for Tresti ng and
Mat er i al s, 1 978, Book of ASTM
St andar ds,
par t
26, Phi l adel phi a
5 BI ELENSTEI NT H' V' ; L' P' CHRI SMAS,
B. A. TATOUR and T. E. TI BBETTS,
' | .979,
Coal Resources and Reserves
of Canada: CANMET, E!lR, ottawa
7 OTBRTAN2 D. T. AND A. WEr SS' 1968'
Practi cal Aspects of Cornputer
Methods i n Ore Reserve Anal ysi s:
cI M Speci al r Vol 9t
pp
109- 113
8 DAVI D, M. 1977, Geost at i st i cal - Or e
Reser ve Est i mat i on: El sevi er ,
Am s terd am
9 SABOURTN, R.L.
r 1982, CANMET
System for l tl i neral Reserve
Erraluation: CANI,IET llining Research
Laboratori es, EMR, Ottawa