Anda di halaman 1dari 2

DURATION ESTIMATING WORKSHEET

A Duration Estimating Worksheet can help to develop duration estimates when quantitative methods
are used. Quantitative methods include:
Parametric estimates
Analogous estimates
Three-point estimates
Parametric estimates are derived by determining the effort hours needed to complete the work. The
effort hours are then calculated by:
Dividing the estimated hours by resource quantity (i.e., number of people assigned to the task)
Dividing the estimated hours by the percent of time the resource(s) are available (i.e., 100 percent
of the time, 75 percent of the time, or 50 percent of the time)
Multiplying the estimated hours by a performance factor. Experts in a fi eld generally complete work
faster than people with an average skill level or novices. Therefore, a factor to account for the
productivity is
developed.
Duration estimates can be made even more accurate by considering that most people are productive
on project work only about 75 percent of the time.
Analogous estimates are derived by comparing current work to previous similar work. The size of the
previous work and the duration is compared to the expected size of the current work compared to
the previous work.
Then the ratio of the size of the current work is multiplied by the previous duration to determine an
estimate.
Various factors, such as complexity, can be factored in to make the estimate more accurate. This
type of estimate is generally used to get a high-level estimate when detailed information is not
available.
A three-point estimate can be used to account for uncertainty in the duration estimate. Stakeholders
provide estimates for optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic scenarios. These estimates are put into
an equation to determine an expected duration. The needs of the project determine the appropriate
equation, but a common equation is the Beta Distribution:
Estimated duration =
Optimistic duration 1 4 Most Likely Duration 1 Pessimistic Duration
6
In formulas, duration is often represented by t for time.
The Duration Estimating Worksheet can receive information from:
Project Scope Statement
Activity List
Activity Attributes
Activity Resource Requirements
Resource Breakdown Structure
Resource Calendars
Risk Register
It provides information to:
Activity Duration Estimates

Anda mungkin juga menyukai