1) INTRODUCTION

1.1) Ths Breng Paper shoud be read n con|uncton wth Why Coa
shoud be treated dherenty by the Pannng System the second part
of LAONs two part study on why the pannng systems operatng n
Engand, Scotand and Waes need a radca reform n the way
appcatons for new opencast mnes are deat wth. Ths, the rst part
of the study, concentrates on what s pro|ected to happen to the UKs
demand for coa for power generaton purposes up to 2030.
1.2) Ths anayss was undertaken pror to the statement made by the
Energy Mnster, Mchae Faon MP to The Tmes on 30/12/13 that the
UK Government was not gong to chaenge the E.Us envronmenta
aw by aowng the utsaton of mothbaed coa red power statons
to prevent backouts. In the artce Mr Faon stated:
We see coal shrinking very rapidly from now on, probably
contributing nothing by 2030, he sad. Coal is going to
disappear o the system!
Ths s the second tme n a month that Mr Faon has made such a
statement about the future use of coa. In the debate on the Lords
Amendments to the Energy B on 4/12/13 he sad
!!!!!!!! the economic outlook for coal generation is poor!
"ur analysis is consistent with that outlook and shows that unabated coal
generation will make up #ust $% of total generation by 2020 and 3% by
202&, and probably 0% by 2030! 'here is no evidence at the moment of a
large number of operators planning to upgrade their coal plants, but we
should not rule out the possibility that one or two might do so! (1).
1.3) These mnstera |udgements about the future demand for coa n ths
country need aso to be understood n two mportant contexts: that UK
sourced coa now ony provdes c 40% of tota suppy (based on the 2011
1 ASSESSING THE NEED FOR COAL
BRIEFING NOTE C1: ASSESSING THE NEED FOR COAL
|ANUARY 2014
gures (see Tabe 1 beow)) wth the remander c 60% beng met by
mports; and then that the word prce of coa has faen dramatcay n
the ast three years whch, together wth the dverson of US coa from
domestc use to export markets, has undermned the compettveness of
UK producton. It cannot be argued that the future prospects for UK coa
producton s anythng other than beak.
1.4) The rst part of ths anayss eshes out the statstca mpcatons of
Mr Faons statement n terms of future coa usage. Hs conrmaton that
coa usage s to decne n the way ndcated n Assessng the Need For
Coa" makes t even more mportant that urgent consderaton be gven to
what ths means for the pannng system operatng n a three countres
as recommended n the concusons arsng from the second part of ths
study, "Why Coa shoud be treated dherenty by the Pannng System.
1.5) The consequences of not dong so are very serous. Aready the UK s
wtness to what can happen when nsumcent contro s exercsed over
both the grantng of pannng permsson for new surface mnes and
nsumcent montorng of ther operaton from what has happened n
Scotand. In Scotand, they are deang wth the consequences of what
happens when two surface mne operators went nto admnstraton.
Scotand now has the egacy of havng 35 derect opencast stes,
stretchng across ve Scottsh oca authorty areas, watng to be
restored. The estmated cost to the pubc purse, of restorng these 35
stes runs to over 200m. (2) LAONs fear s that ths s |ust a precursor of
what mght happen esewhere n the UK, as the pro|ected need for coa for
power generaton purposes decnes sharpy between 2011 and 2030.
1.6) Ths s why LAON has undertaken ths nvestgaton nto both the
future demand for coa and the way pannng appcatons for new
opencast mnes are deat wth, to see f our fears are |usted. Beow are
the ndngs from the rst stage of ths two stage nvestgaton. It reveas
the foowng:
Brtans capacty to burn coa s set to decne sharpy. If we take the
amount of coa burnt n 2011 for power generaton purpose as a
base ne and the atest pro|ectons based on the Department of
Energy and Cmate Change 2013 gures, dscountng the possbty
that Carbon Capture and Storage w prove to be commercay
vabe, the rate of decne s as foows. By 2016 coa use w have
faen by 45%, by 2021 by 80%, by 2026 by 95% and by 2031 by
98%.%. Our analysis therefore reaches the same conclusion
as that of the Energy Minister
2 ASSESSING THE NEED FOR COAL
Durng ths perod, as the gures from Tabes One and Two ustrate,
f the UK s to mantan suppes of domestcay produced coa, the
UK w become more and more reant on coa produced by surface
mnes. These are sedom popuar, are extremey ntrusve, dsgure
the andscape, destroy oca ecooges, cause pannng bght and
eave behnd a stere andscape that takes years to recover. These
are ncreasngy beng sted on greened stes and n Engand,
coser and coser to where peope ve.
Ths anayss suggests, that by 2020, the UK w reach a cross over
pont, when the UK w be producng more coa than t can
consume. As UK produced coa tends to have a hgher suphur
content, t has to be bended wth sweeter mported coa wth a
ower suphur content n order for domestc coa to be usabe n UK
power statons, ths cross over pont may we occur sooner than
ths.
Scotand provdes evdence of what mght happen f the current
assez fare atttude to the grantng of new surface mne
appcatons s aowed to contnue, eadng to the bankruptcy of coa
mnng companes and bankruptcy aws supersedng pannng
obgatons. Ths eads to the dscamng of any ega responsbty
to restore abandoned stes. In such cases the and tsef and the
oca communtes near the abandoned stes, bear the cost.
As a consequence, we therefore recommend that:
) The Department of Energy and Cmate Change shoud
pubsh, every sx months, a pro|ecton of key coa usage for
power generaton purposes for the next 15 years. The
Department of Communtes and Loca Government (n
Engand) and the approprate departments n Scotand and
Waes, shoud pubsh gudance on the sgncance to be
attached to the updated DECC nformaton when determnng
surface mne pannng appcatons.
) The Pannng Poces for Engand Scotand and Waes be
amended to so that the pro|ected coa usage gures produced
by DECC become a matera consderaton when determnng
new surface mne appcatons.
) That perodc (every three years) revews of oca mnera
pans be undertaken to take account of changes n forecast
future coa pro|ectons n those oca authorty areas
assocated wth deep and surface coa mnng.
3 ASSESSING THE NEED FOR COAL
If ths s not done then the ong-term future of oca communtes
and ther envronment w be threatened and gravey damaged by
short-term excavatons whch w then become ether mothbaed or
abandoned as the market for coa s taken away by Government
and European Unon poces amed at controng harmfu emssons.
2) TE UN!RECEDENTED C"N#E$ "%%ECTIN# TE U&
CO"' MININ# INDU$TR(
THE STATE OF UK COAL PRODUCTION
2.1) Coa n the UK has two man uses, eectrcty producton and for
makng stee. Lower quaty coas, steam or btumnous coas, are used for
power generaton purposes whst better quaty coas, especay
anthracte or coa converted nto coke were used for stee makng. Ths
means that the buk of ths assessment about the current and future use
of coa w concern tsef wth coa for power generaton purposes.
2.2) Between 2008 and 2011 there s a dscernbe trend of producton
ony beng mantaned because a greater proporton of the tota coa
mned s from surface mned coa (see Tabe One). The drop n producton
of over 1.0m tonnes n 2012 herads the begnnng of the mpact that the
ow word prce of coa has had on UK Coa producton, wth deep mnes
beng cosed and opencast mnes mothbaed. Ths crss has contnued
nto 2013, wth the UKs argest mne, Daw M cosng after a re and the
two Scottsh surface mne coa operators, gong bankrupt.
2.3) Coa producton gures for the rst nne months of 2013, produced by
the Coa Authorty (Tabe Two) pant the foowng pcture for 2013. In the
current year, 67% of the domestc coa produced s from surface mnes,
contnung the we estabshed trend that as UK coa producton fas, a
hgher proporton of the coa that s produced comes from surface mnes.
Ths trend appears to be acceeratng, as n the |uy - September quarter,
neary 72% of the coa produced came from surface mnes.
T")'E ONE* "NNU"' U& CO"' !RODUCTION %I#URE$ 2++,-2+12 .
IM!ORT$
%rom Du/es 2+10 Cha1ter 2* $u11ly an2 Consum1tion of Coal
Ta3le 2.4 5Total Million Tonnes 5tmt) 50)
(ear Dee1 mine2 $urface Mine2 Total Coal !ro2uction
Im1orts
4 ASSESSING THE NEED FOR COAL
2++, 8.096 9,509 17.604 43,875
2++6 7,520 9.854 17,374 38,167
2+1+ 7,390 10.426 17,817 26,541
2+11 7,312 10.580 17,892 32,527
2+12 6,153 10,134 16,287 44,815
T")'E T7O* CO"' "UTORIT( U& CO"' !RODUCTION %I#URE$ 8"N
9 $E!T 2+10 5thousan2 m tonnes) 54)
!erio2 $urface2 Mine2 Coal Dee1 Mine2 Coal Total
|an -March 2,403,575 1,352,374 3,755, 849
Apr- |une 2, 267, 754 1, 124, 404 3,392, 158
|uy - Sept 2,010, 655 785,239 2,795,894
-------------------------------------------------------------
|an - Sept 6,681,984 3,262,071 9,943,901
% 67.2 32.8 100%
--------------------------------------------------------------
Annuased 8,909,312 4,349,428 13,258,535
gure
2.4) Compared to 2011, coa producton across the UK s down by c 25%.
There s no rea prospect of ths oss of producton beng made up by
snkng a new deep mne. If t s the pocy of the UK Government that, n
the short to medum term, to secure UK Energy Securty by expotng the
UKs coa resources, then the ony way ths oss of producton can be made
good s by approvng new surface mnes, at a faster rate than we have
seen n recent years. If ths were to happen, then as the next secton
expans, t s key to ncrease the rsk of a seres of envronmenta
dsasters as ncreases n surface mne producton concde wth a
predctabe decne n the future demand for coa. At present, LAON s
aware that there has been pubc dscusson on another 32 potenta stes
(5)
CURRENT COAL UTILISATION IN THE UK ECONOMY
2.5) Fgures derved from the same DUKES tabe used prevousy, shows
the current ma|or trends n coa consumpton (Tabe 3) The surge n the
5 ASSESSING THE NEED FOR COAL
use of coa for power generaton n 2012 may represent a swan-song for
coa for two man reasons. Sx coa red power statons had ony a mted
fe tme eft as they woud not compy wth the European Large
Combuston Pant Drectve. Ths meant that they woud have to cose by
2015, or whenever they used up ther 20,000 hour aowance for
producng eectrcty ntroduced n 2008. By 2012, wth fang coa prces,
the owners of generatng pants ehectvey bought the dates for cosng
these sx pants forwards by oggng them to death. Esewhere, wth coa
so cheap, gas power statons were taken oh provdng the base oad and
coa red power statons reassumed ths roe thus burnng more coa n
the process.
2.7) Currenty ess than 500,000 tonnes of coa are exported.
2.8) The gap between the current eve of UK coa producton and UK coa
consumpton s made up of mports (Tabe 4). When currenty assessng
new surface mne appcatons, the gap between domestc coa producton
and coa consumpton s covered by coa mports. Ths gap then becomes
the
T")'E TREE* Total consum1tion 3y 1o:er stations an2 the
steel in2ustry 5tmt)
50)
(E"R TOT"' !o:er $tations $teel
2008 58.385 47.000 7.045
2009 46.786 39.681 5.788
2010 51.446 41.498 6.624
2011 51.500 41.850 6.393
2012 64.327 54.906 6.066
bass of the Need for Coa arguments, used by coa operators when
seekng pannng permsson for new surface mnes. Ths Breng Note n
Secton 3 predcts that by 2020, ths gap w have dsappeared, thereby
weakenng the strongest pank n the argument that a appcants put
forwards for new surface mnes.
0) !REDICTIN# TE %UTURE DEM"ND %OR CO"' %OR
!O7ER #ENER"TION !UR!O$E$
THE BASIS FOR THE UNOFFICIAL PREDICTION FOR FUTURE COAL
USEAGE
6 ASSESSING THE NEED FOR COAL
3.1) There s no omca forecast about the future need for coa for power
generaton purposes produced by the Department for Energy and
Cmate Change (DECC). However, LAON can produce an unomca
gure derved from omca data pubshed by the Government and the
Department of Energy and Cmate Change. Ths unomca forecast s
based on workng out how much coa t took to generate each Terawatt
Hour of Eectrcty (TWh) produced n 2011 and appyng that gure to
annua predctons of sources of fue to be used for power generaton
produced by DECC. Ths anayss rst appeared as a graph on p 34 of
the Energy Securty Strategy Whte Paper, Cm 8466, pubshed n
November 2012. (6) Ths s the Government ast omca
comprehensve statement on predctng future sources of energy for
power generaton purposes up to 2031. Further correspondence wth
DECC reveaed that the graph on page 34 entted (ndicator (()
*lectricity +iversity) ,eneration -i. by fuel type /2000020301 was
derved from a new set of data beng provded on an annua bass by
DECC, entted 2pdated energy and emissions pro#ections) 2032,
4nne. *) 'otal electricity generation by source! (7)
3.2) If t s possbe to nd out how much coa was used to provde one
Terawatt Hour of eectrcty, then the gures used to produce the
graph on p 34 of the *nergy 5ecurity 5trategy White 6aper and the
2pdated energy and emissions pro#ections 2032 4nne. *) 'otal
electricity generation by source, can be used to provded a coa
tonnage equvaent for a the eectrcty whch t s predcted w be
produced by coa red power statons n the future. In 2011, the ma|or
eectrcty producers used 40,566,000 tonnes of coa to produce
108.58 TWh of eectrcty (8). Ths produces a proxy coa gure that t
took 373,364 tonnes of coa to produce each TWh of eectrcty
(40.57 / 108.58) n 2011. The more eaborate Annex E tabes produce
by DECC for 2012 and 2013 (9) can be used to cacuate the pro|ected
coa usage ndcated by mutpyng the pro|ected expected number of
TWh for each year up to 2030, produced by burnng coa by 373,364.
These cacuatons form the bass for the gures used n Tabe Four and
Tabe Fve.
THE ANALYSIS OF THE FUTURE NEED FOR COAL
3.3) When these two estmates are compared as shown n Tabe Sx, a
great range of dherences has occurred n |ust one year n these
pro|ectons, so that up unt 2026 the decne n the expected use of coa s
antcpated to be greater n 2013 than t was a year earer - n some
cases by over 30% as ustrated n Tabe Fve.
7 ASSESSING THE NEED FOR COAL
T")'E %OUR TE 2+12 "ND 2+10 !RO8ECTION$ %OR TE U$E
O% CO"' %OR !O7ER #ENER"TION !UR!O$E$ IN
TE U& 2+11 9 2+0+ 5; < 6)
2012 DECC ESTIMATE (6) 2013 DECC ESTIMATE (7)
YEAR TWH
COAL
TWH
(COAL
+ CCS)
(*)
TOTAL
COAL
TWh
COAL
USAGE
(mtns)
(#)
YEAR TWH
COAL
TWH
(COAL
+ CCS)
(*)
TOTAL
COAL
COAL USAGE
(#)
2011 108.58 0 108.58 40.57
2012 53.84
2013 2013 141.9 0 141.9 53.02
2014 123.9 0 123.9 46.29 2014 129.5 0 129.5 48.39
2015 115.6 0 115.6 43.19 2015 106.4 0 106.4 39.75
2016 81.5 0 81.5 30.45 2016 59..7 0 59.7 22.31
2017 73.2 3.2 76.4 28.54 2017 49.3 0 49.3 18.42
2018 61.1 3.2 64.3 24.02 2018 46.5 4.7 51.2 19.13 (17.37)
2019 53.57 3.2 56.7 21.18 2019 37.9 4.7 42.6 15.92 (14.16)
2020 38.9 3.1 42.0 15.69 2020 28.2 4.7 32.9 12.29 (10.54)
2021 29.3 3.1 32.4 12.10 2012 23.6 4.7 28.3 10.57 (8.82)
2022 28.1 3.1 31.2 11.66 2022 24.6 4.7 29.3 10.95 (9.19)
2023 24.4 3.1 27.5 10.25 2023 20.2 4.7 24.9 9.30 (7.55)
2024 22.6 3.1 25.7 9.60 2024 12.4 4.7 17.1 6.39 (4.63)
2025 17.5 3.1 20.6 7.70 2025 8.4 11.0 18.4 6.87 (3.14)
2026 14.2 3.1 17.3 6.46 2026 6.1 17.1 23.2 8.67 (2.28)
2027 9.7 3.1 12.8 4.78 2027 4.3 23.1 27.4 10.24 (1.61)
2028 7.9 3.1 11.0 4.11 2028 3.3 24.4 27.7 10.35 (1.23)
2029 7.0 3.1 10.1 3.77 2029 2.7 28.9 31.6 11.81 (1.01)
2030 6.9 3.1 10.0 3.74 2030 1.9 33.3 35.2 13.15 (0.71)
(*) = The expected amount of coa to be used n power statons tted wth Carbon
Capture and Storage Technoogy.
(#) = The predcted number of Terawatts produced X .373634 The ater gures n
brackets are estmates of the need for coa f CCS s not found to be commercay vabe.
The ntroducton of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Power Staton
technoogy s expected, n the 2013 pro|ecton, to have a ater, a be t,
more dramatc mpact from 2018 onwards. However, at the tme of
wrtng, the bass for the ncrease n the use of coa for power generaton
by coa red power statons tted wth CCS n the 2020s n the 2013
pro|ectons s as yet uncear, as ths technoogy st has to prove that t s
commercay vabe.
T")'E %I=E C"N#E$ IN TE 'E=E' O% DEM"ND O% CO"' %OR
!O7ER #ENER"TION !UR!O$E$ )"$ED ON TE
DI%%ERENT E$TIM"TE$ IN CO"' UTI'I$"TION
%ROM TE DECC 2+12 "ND 2+10 !REDICTION$
YEAR 2012
ESTIMATE
2013
ESTIMATE
% + OR - YEAR 2012
ESTIMATE
2013
ESTIMATE
% + OR -
8 ASSESSING THE NEED FOR COAL
2014 46.29 48.39 +4.54 2023 10.25 9.30 - 9.27
2015 43.19 39.75 -7.96 2024 9.6 6.39 - 33.44
2016 30.45 22.31 -22.31 2025 7.70 6.87 - 10.78
2017 28.54 18.42 -35.46 2026 6.46 8.67 + 14.28
2018 24.02 19.13 -20.36 2027 4.78 10.24 +114.22
2019 21.18 15.92 -24.83 2028 4.11 10.35 +151.82
2020 15.69 12.29 -21.67 2029 3.77 11.81 +213.36
2021 12.10 10.57 -12.64 2030 3.74 13.51 +261.23
2022 11.66 10.95 -6.09
3.4) The cruca pont n readng the gures n ths tabe s to pnpont the
year n whch our key eve of coa producton (c 13.25mt) w exceed
our capacty to burn t. Accordng to the 2013 gures, ths cross over
date s key to be 2020. LAON, however beeves ths cross over date
w occur even earer that ths, because of the hgher suphur content of
most of the domestcay produced UK Coa. (see 3.7)
3.5) The degree of change ndcated by these two sets of gures for 2012
and 2013 suggest the degree of uncertanty assocated wth predctng the
future demand for coa. More dscusson on ths s contaned n Part Two of
ths study Why Coa shoud be treated dherenty by the Pannng System
(paragraph 4.), whch w renforce LAONs suggeston that every sx
months, for the foreseeabe future, a pro|ecton about future coa use
shoud be produced by DECC and shoud be used when assessng the
future Need for Coa when determnng new opencast coa appcatons.
THE SPECIAL SITUATION IN SCOTLAND AND WALES
3.6) Scottsh and Wesh coa markets share the foowng characterstcs.
Both countres ony have one coa red power statons eft to be served by
ther domestc coa ndustry, Longannet n Scotand and Aberthaw n
Waes. If these two power statons were to cose, then the ony market for
the btumnous coa produced for these two power statons woud be the
remanng coa red power statons n Engand. However, ths coa may
then suher from a prce dsadvantage when compared to Engsh coa as
hgher freght charges may squeeze ths coa out of a decnng market.
THE OUALITY AND PRICE ISSUE OF UK PRODUCED COAL INCLUDING
ITS SULPHUR CONTENT
9 ASSESSING THE NEED FOR COAL
3.7) Successfu E.U. poces to mprove the ar quaty we breath and
reduce the envronmenta mpacts of burnng coa on human heath and
the natura envronment by restrctng the amount of Ntrous Oxde and
Suphur Doxde power statons can emt, has had an mpact on the types
of coa power statons buy. Even f UK Coa Producers coud, on paper,
produce a the Coa Power Generators needed, the Power Generators
woud st buy mported coa because UK produced coa has aways t
seems had quaty and prce ssues assocated wth t. The nformaton
about the ower quaty of UK produced coa compared wth the quaty of
mported coa s not new. The 1993 Whte Paper whch preceded the
denatonasaton of the Coa Industry reported that
!!!!!the ma#ority of 7ritish coal is also of signi8cantly lower 9uality than its
internationally traded counterpart, especially in respect of sulphur, ash
and chlorine content: this mainly re;ects inescapable facts of geology
(10 )
In a presentaton gven by Nge Yaxey, Managng Drector of the
Assocaton of Coa Importers n 2009, he ponted out that mported coa,
wth ts ower suphur content, woud be more mportant after 2016 as
5"2 emissions are directly proportional to sulphur content in coal and
tighter limits after 203< may mean sulphur also becomes important for
=,+ stations (11)
(FGD refers to Fue Gas Desuphursaton methods. After 2016 a new ower
pouton standard, the Industra Emssons Drectve begns to take
ehect).
Lasty, EDF, one of the man power generatng companes aso has ths
comment on ther web ste about mported coa when dscussng securty
of suppy:
!!!!!! ! >owever, it is typically less e.pensive to import coal than to mine
it in the 2?! (12). Ths nformaton suggests that the cross over date s
key to be even earer than 2020.
4) TE $COTTI$ E>"M!'E* 7"T "!!EN$ 7EN CO"'
O!ER"TOR$ #O )"N&RU!T
4.1) If, foowng the recent debace n the UK coa ndustry wth three
producers gong bankrupt, coa producton contnues at between 13 and
14m tonnes per annum, we w no onger, accordng to the 2013 estmate,
need to mport coa for power generaton purposes after 2020. Ths
assessment suggests that there s a rea rsk of overcapacty n the suppy
of domestc coa from 2020 onwards.
10 ASSESSING THE NEED FOR COAL
4.2) The rsk s, that wthout a strcter method of assessng the future
need for coa ted to determnng pannng appcatons, many of the
operators of the new stes w nd that they cannot market ther coa. In
order to mprove ther abty to market ther coa at a ower prce, they
may try to postpone ste restoraton for as ong as possbe. Such a
strategy however, eads to rea nanca probems for the operator and,
shoud the oca mnera pannng authorty trgger the need to restore the
ste by servng a breach of condtons notce, t may we resut n the
operator gong bankrupt. Under such crcumstances, the oca authorty
concerned may be oathed to act, as has possbe been the recent case n
Scotand.
4.3) However, ths assumes that UK produced coa w aways be cheaper
than mported coa. The recent hstory of coa suppy and demand as
outned n Tabe One, suggests that ths s hardy key to be the case, as
does the evdence from EDF cted n 3.7 snce, even wth a boom n the
demand for coa n 2012, t was an ncrease n mports and not an ncrease
n domestcay produced coa, whch fed the furnaces. (see Tabes One
and Three). Indeed the factors that ed to the demse of UK coa operators,
the ncrease n the mportaton of cheap North Amercan coa dspaced
from ts own market by even cheaper shae gas, shows no sgn of abatng.
On ths bass, one can predct an ncrease n competton for an ever
shrnkng market for coa n the UK, at east unt 2026. Ths means that
the rsk of overcapacty n the producton of domestc coa coud occur at a
much earer date.
4.4) Rea rsks of further envronmenta damage on a arge scae therefore
exst f no changes are made to the pannng systems operatng n the UK
. We rsk a repeat of what has frequenty happened n the past. Then,
when the gong has got tough for coa operators, companes went
bankrupt and bankruptcy and other courts aowed qudators to dscam
responsbty for restorng stes as the cost of dong so was too onerous.
Whatever pannng safeguards and condtons are put n pace to prevent
the rsk that, shoud a company go bankrupt, then sumcent funds are
avaabe to secure the restoraton of a ste, the bankruptcy aws can
trump any pannng obgaton. In addton, the nsurance bonds and other
forms of securty taken out to provde for Restoraton Bonds have often
proved to be nadequate when the tme comes to use them. In Scotand
currenty these Bonds are estmated to cover |ust 25% of the tota cost of
restorng the 35 stes (2)
4.5) In one oca authorty area aone, East Ayrshre, ths nherent assez
fare approach to the grantng of pannng consents has eft ths oca
11 ASSESSING THE NEED FOR COAL
authorty wth a 133m abty on ts doorstep, the estmated net cost to
the pubc purse, of restorng 22 abandoned opencast stes. (13).
4.6) The anayss n ths Breng Note suggests that what has happened n
Scotand, may not turn out to be a one oh, soated, epsode, but a
precursor of a trend endemc to the domestc coa producton ndustry
across the UK as ong as the present assez fare system contnues and
an assessment of the need for coa s not addressed when determnng
new pannng appcatons.
4.7) The mpcatons of coa operators gong bankrupt are dre. When ths
occurs t w be the envronment and the oca communtes vng cose to
what w rapdy become a derect ste, who w pay the prce. We need a
pannng system that reduces the rsk that stes w be eft derect. The
suggeston here s that ths assez fare approach whch encourages
specuatve nvestment n coa pro|ects shoud be abandoned and repaced
by a system that treats coa as a speca case, as ong as the future
demand for coa decnes n the way ndcated by the DECC pro|ectons.
That s why we argue that a much more rgorous assessment about the
need for coa needs to be ncuded as part of the process n determnng
a future opencast mnng appcatons f we are to avod a contractng
ndustry eavng the countrysde ttered wth abandoned opencast mne
stes. Ths s aready 35 envronmenta dsasters too many.
?) CONC'U$ION$
5.1) Brtans capacty to burn coa s set to decne sharpy. Ths s not |ust
the concuson of LAON t s the Governments concuson as we. If we
take the amount of coa burnt n 2011 for power generaton purpose as a
base ne and the atest pro|ectons based on the Department of Energy
and Cmate Change 2013 gures, dscountng the possbty that Carbon
Capture and Storage w prove to be commercay vabe, the rate of
decne s as foows. By 2016 coa use w have faen by 45%, by 2021 by
80%, by 2026 by 95% and by 2031 by 98%.
5.2) Durng ths perod, as the gures from Tabes One and Two ustrate, f
the UK s to mantan suppes of domestcay produced coa, t w
become more and more reant on coa produced by surface mnes. These
are sedom popuar, are extremey ntrusve, dsgure the andscape,
destroy oca ecooges, cause pannng bght and eave behnd a stere
andscape that takes years to recover. They are ncreasngy beng sted
on Greened stes.
5.3) Snce ths coapse n demand s beng created by poces amed at
reducng pouton, t therefore now has to be the responsbty for the
12 ASSESSING THE NEED FOR COAL
Department of Energy and Cmate Change to pubsh, every sx months, a
pro|ecton of key coa usage for power generaton purposes for the next
15 years. The Department of Communtes and Loca Government (n
Engand) and the approprate department n Scotand and Waes, shoud
pubsh gudance on the sgncance to be attached to the updated DECC
nformaton when determnng surface mne pannng appcatons.
More anayss s needed of the pannng system and why t adopts ths
assez far approach to new surface mne appcatons. Ths w be
anaysed n the next Breng Note.
RE'E="NCE O% TI$ DOCUMENT.
Informaton contaned n ths document can be used for three man
purposes:
To chaenge the Need for Coa arguments put forwards by those
appyng for permsson to start new opencast mnes or extend
exstng stes.
To provde evdence on why Coa shoud be treated as a speca case
when Mnera Pannng Authortes are revewng ther Mnera
Pannng Strateges.
In con|uncton wth ts sster Breng Note Why Coa shoud be
treated dherenty by the Pannng System, to chaenge the
nherent assez fare approach to approvng new opencast mne
appcatons by argung that a more rgorous Need for Coa
assessment needs to be undertaken before pannng approva s
gven.
Stephen Leary
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
My thanks go to the foowng for assstng me n the preparaton of ths
document:
|o Homes The Whttonsta Acton Group
Duncan Hggtt Waes Aganst Opencast Group
Macom Spavn Stop Caudha Opencast
Anthony Rae
REFERENCES
1) These two statements by Mchae Faon MP , Energy Mnster, about
the future of coa use n the UK can be found here:
13 ASSESSING THE NEED FOR COAL
@Coa pants w stay shut despte threat of backouts (Tmes, 30 12/13) @
http://www.thetmes.co.uk/tto/busness/ndustres/uttes/artce3960637.
ece and
Energy B Debate, Hansard 4/12/13, coumn 943 @
http://www.pubcatons.parament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmhansrd/cm131204
/debtext/131204-0002.htm#13120494000005
2)Councs eft wth 200m shortfa n funds to cean up opencast mnes,
Scottsh Sunday Herad, 8/12/13 @
http://www.heradscotand.com/news/envronment/councs-eft-wth-
200m-shortfa-n-funds-to-cean-up-opencast-mnes.22898637
3)Sod fues and derved gases: chapter 2, Dgest of Unted Kngdom
energy statstcs (DUKES), |uy 2013 Tabe 2.4 @
https://www.gov.uk/government/pubcatons?
keywords=DUKES+coa+statstcs&pubcaton_ter_opton=statstcs&to
pcs%5B%5D=energy&departments%5B
%5D=a&omca_document_status=a&word_ocatons%5B
%5D=a&from_date=&to_date=
4)Ouartery Coa Mnng and Manpower Returns for |an -March and Apr -
|une 2013. Coa Authorty, 2013 @
http://coa.decc.gov.uk/en/coa/cms/pubcatons/mnng/mnng.aspx https:
//www.gov.uk/government/pubcatons/sod-fues-and-derved-gases-
chapter-2-dgest-of-unted-kngdom-energy-statstcs-dukes
The |uy - September gures are the resut of a persona communcaton
5) Breng Note S1: Revew of Prospectve Surface Coa Appcaton
Stes n Engand, Scotand and Waes for 2013, The Loose Ant
Opencast Network (forthcomng)
6)Energy Securty Strategy , Cm 8466, DECC, November 2012 @
https://www.gov.uk/government/pubcatons/energy-securty-strategy
7)Updated energy and emssons pro|ectons: 2012, Annex E : tota
eectrcty generaton by source: Centra Scenaro. @
https://www.gov.uk/government/pubcatons/2012-energy-and-emssons-
pro|ectons
14 ASSESSING THE NEED FOR COAL
8) The reference for the amount of coa used n 2011 by ma|or suppers to
produce eectrcty s the Dgest of UK Energy Statstcs 2011, Chapter 5,
Tabe 5.4 @
http://webarchve.natonaarchves.gov.uk/20130109092117/http://decc.go
v.uk/assets/decc/11/stats/pubcatons/dukes/5955-dukes-2012-chapter-5-
eectrcty.pdf
and
The reference for the amount of eectrcty produced by burnng coa for
power generaton by the ma|or companes n 2011 s December 2012
Energy Trends, Secton 5 Eectrcty, Tabe 5.1. Fue used n eectrcty
generaton and eectrcty supped @
https://www.gov.uk/government/upoads/system/upoads/attachment_data
/e/65835/3945-energy-trends-secton-4-eectrcty.pdf
9)Updated energy and emssons pro|ectons: 2013, "nne@ E* total
electricity generation 3y source: Referenced Scenaro @
htt1s*AA:::.goB.u/AgoBernmentA1u3licationsAu12ate2-energy-
an2-emissions-1roCections-2+10
10)Prospects for Coa: Concusons of the Governments Coa Revew,
Paragraph 4.10, Cm2235, March 1993 @
http://www.omca-documents.gov.uk/document/cm22/2235/2235.pdf
11)Russan coa n the UK Market, Assocaton of Coa Importers, Coa Imp
Annua Luncheon Meetng 2009 @
http://ngeyaxey.com/resources/Coatrans+Russa+30-03-09.pdf +
ARIC / DEFRA Ar Pouton Fact Sheet Seres for Key Stage and A
Leves , Lord Grey Organsaton, undated @
http://www.ordgrey.org.uk/-f014/usefuresources/arc/Resources/Fact_She
ets/Key_Stage_4/Ar_Pouton/27.htm
12)EDF: How secure are the Uks coa suppes? @
http://www.edfenergy.com/energyfuture/energy-gap-securty/coa-and-
the-energy-gap-securty (vsted on 30/12/13)
13)East Ayrshre Counc, Counc - 19 September 2013, Opencast Mnng
In East Ayrshre - Steps To Recovery: Report By Chef Executve Page 40,
notes 17 and 18. The sum of 132,909m s arrved at by deductng the
15 ASSESSING THE NEED FOR COAL
28,656m to be reased from cang n Restoraton Bonds from the
estmated tota cost of restorng the East Ayrshre stes of 161,565m @
http://docs.east-
ayrshre.gov.uk/crpadmmn/2012%20agendas/counc/19%20september
%202013/Open%20Cast%20Mnng%20Report.pdf
INFORMATION ABOUT LAON
The Loose Ant-Opencast Network (LAON) has been n exstence snce
2009. It s a UK and Northern Ireand wde network of oca communty
groups opposed to oca opencast mne proposas / operatons. It functons
as a medum through whch to oppose open cast mne appcatons and
works wth groups where oca peope fee that such a deveopment s
napproprate.
CONTACTING LAON
Steve Leary, LAONS Co-ordnator, at nfoataon@yahoo.com
Te 05601 767981 or 07711501215
You can now foow LAON on twtter @ http://twtter.com/seftonchase
,A"265 (B '>* C""5* 4B'( "6*BC45' B*'W"A?)
Coa Acton Network
Whttonsta Acton Group, Northumberand,
North Pennne Protecton Group, Northumberand,
Pont Vaey Network, Co Durham,
Pttngton Resdents Group Co Durham,
Newton Lane Acton Group, Leeds,
Resdents Aganst Brkands, Gateshead
Cowey Resdents Group, Shemed ,
Skemansthorpe Acton Group, Krkees
Shortwood Farm Opencast Opposton, Nottnghamshre,
West Haum Envronment Group, Derbyshre,
Smaey Acton Group, Derbyshre,
Htop Acton Group, Derbyshre, ,
Mnorca Opencast Protest Group, Lecestershre,
Campagn Aganst Great Oak Opencast, Stahordshre,
Stop Opencast at Sharston, Wakeed and
Aumwe Acton Group. Wasa
|ust Say No to Lgnte, N Ireand,
Coa Acton Scotand
Mnng and Envronment Group, East Ayrshre
16 ASSESSING THE NEED FOR COAL
Sane Parsh Hub, Ffe
Stop Caudha Opencast, Mdothan
Green Vaeys Aance, Rhymney Vaey
Merthyr Tyd Ant Opencast Campagn, Merthyr Tyd
Lwdgoed Acton, Merthyr Tyd and Varteg Protest, Torfaen
Waes Aganst Opencast Group.
17 ASSESSING THE NEED FOR COAL