FPM Probabilty

Session 1
P. Bhimasankaram
Applied Statistics and Computing Lab
Indian School of Business
Sample Space and Events
Random Experiment
Sample Space
Sample Point
Event
Simple Event
When do we say that an event occurred?
Operations on events
Union
Intersection
Complementation
Sub-event
Disjoint events
Mutually exclusive events
Collectively exhaustive events
Partition of the sample space
An example
Example continued
Probability: Basic axioms
1 ) (
1 ) ( 0
=
s s
S P
E P
If are mutually exclusive, then ,... ,
2 1
E E

=
=
|
|
.
|

\
|
1
)
1
(
i
i
i
i
E P E P

Some consequences of the axioms
( )

B A P B P A P AUB P
B P A P B A
E P E P
c
+ =
s _
=
) ( ) ( ) (
) ( ) (
) ( 1 ) (
Extension of the last consequence
Examples
Letter envelope problem

More examples
Equally likely simple events
Conditional Probability
Definition
Rationale
Independence
Disjoint events and independent events
Multiplicative law

Example
Examples
Revisit the system problem