TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Jon McHenry and Dan Judy

DATE: October 3, 2014

RE: Tobin Leads Kirkpatrick in AZ 01 Contest


Our survey of 400 likely voters in Arizonas First Congressional District, conducted September
16-18, 2014 for the American Action Network using live callers and including respondents
contacted on their cell phones, shows challenger Andy Tobin in a strong position to win the seat
in November. The survey includes 35 percent Republican and 35 percent Democratic voters, and
has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.9 percent. Key findings of the survey are:

1. Voters say the country is off on the wrong track by a three-to-one margin. By a 69 to
22 percent margin, voters in AZ 01 say the country is off on the wrong track. Similarly, voters
disapprove of the job the President is doing by a 59 to 38 percent margin, and disapprove of his
signature legislative achievement, the Affordable Care Act, by a 60 to 36 percent margin.

2. That pessimism translates into a sizeable advantage on the generic congressional
ballot Despite an even party registration split among respondents, voters prefer a generic
Republican candidate to a generic Democrat by a 45 to 36 percent margin.

3. Andy Tobin leads Ann Kirkpatrick by a six-point margin on the congressional ballot.
Tobin leads 48 to 42 percent, including a 49 to 40 percent lead among the voters who say they
are very likely to vote. Tobin leads among white men (55 to 37 percent) and white women (50 to
41 percent) as well.

4. Just a third of voters think Kirkpatrick deserves reelection. When asked if Ann
Kirkpatrick deserves reelection or if it is time to give someone else a chance, just 33 percent say
she deserves reelection and 57 percent say it is time for someone else.