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Your instructions and team assignments appear below. The team paper selections are due at
noon on September 22nd (e-mail me your team number and topic), so please get together and
decide upon one of the three options below.

Team paper / project requirements:

You will work in assigned teams of up to six (6) for the group intelligence estimate paper (see
below) and will share the overall grade unless determined otherwise by the instructor. These are
permanent teams and no changes will be permitted unless authorized, even if there are student
course withdrawals from a team.

The team should follow an intelligence estimate format (various examples provided on
Blackboard) and NOT simply be a research paper (this means you will employ language of
likelihoods and confidence factors such as that found in the Iran NIE example in Unit 3).
Coordination and leadership will be critical to success. The paper should be in the APA
documentation style (Google this) in 12 point font (Times New Roman) with 1 inch margins,
and double spaced.

The paper should be centered on ANALYSIS of a given intelligence / security topic dont just
turn in a summary of information gathered from multiple sources. Quality of the writing, grasp
of the subject and original thinking take precedence over any specific paper length.
Nevertheless, a basic guideline for the body of the intelligence papers would be 12-15 pages (not
counting the references). Provide an Executive Summary (approximately one page) at the
beginning of the paper. Since this is an academic project, you must also include in-text citations
and a properly formatted works cited page (APA style). You must have a minimum of 10
references. During the last two units of class each group will post a presentation of their work
and complete a peer evaluation on the other group presentations.


1) Space security
Research and identify the current state and future trends of space policies and
technologies as they relate to our national security. What is the probability and potential
scope of militarization of space within the next decade? Assess how countries are
pursuing space technologies to negate the US advantage in employing space borne
communications, surveillance, intelligence, navigation, etc.

2) Chinas Nuclear Weapons
Assess the potential threat of Chinas nuclear weapons stockpile and programs to the U.S.
and its allies in Southeast Asia. What capabilities do they possess and what is their
doctrine regarding use of these weapons? Are they increasing their stockpile or
types/numbers of delivery systems?

3) Islamic State
Describe and assess the goals, strengths, and weaknesses of the Islamic State (ISIS).
What threat does it pose to other nations in the region, as well as to US interests? Where
does ISIS receive its support from, both monetarily and politically?

NOTE: These papers should be drafted as if you are planning to submit them to principal
players involved in setting US national security, such as the House Permanent Select Committee
on Intelligence or the National Security Council. Do not make policy prescriptions! Your job
as an intelligence analyst is to provide the critical information necessary for them to make the
policy decisions. Therefore, your papers must be free from personal bias and unfounded
conjecture. If you dont know something and it is important to making a determination, say so
clearly. If the evidence points toward a conclusion, express it succinctly and include your
estimate of likelihood. When applicable, assess the intentions or outlook of the state under
discussion. Always express the confidence level of your judgments/assessments.

Team assignments

Team 1: Acosta, Almaraz, Avila, Ayala, Blas

Team 2: Bolivar, Campana, Castro, Chavez, Duran

Team 3: Foster, Garcia, Ibarra, Jaquez, Jones, Martin

Team 4: Monk, Munoz, Nevarez, Olivares, Ortega, Perez

Team 5: Ramirez, G. Rios, J. Rios, Saenz, Swanson

NOTE: The presentation (normally in PowerPoint format) summary of your paper is due on the
same date as the paper (November 25th). Please post them both in the appropriate section at the
bottom of the Discussion board and identify your teams number and individual names.