Measuring and Modeling Population Changes (14.

2)
Karnig Kazazian

Key Summary:
- Mathematical and graphed models are used to predict tends in population
growth
- Exponential and geometric growth demonstrate growth without limits
- Logistic Grown, limited by carrying capacity, is more realistic growth model
commonly seen within populations

All ecosystems have a maximum number of organisms that it can support, because
of the resources available over a certain time. This is referred to as carrying
capacity. There are many factors that can influence carrying capacity such as the
number of resources available, the location, competitors, and prey.

Factors that Affect Population Growth

Population dynamics are changes in population characteristics that can be
determined by various factors such as immigration, emigration, the number of birth,
and the number of deaths.

Females in a population have fecundity, which is a quantitative measurement of
the number of potential offspring a species may have in their lifetime. Some
populations have a low fecundity, such as hippo, with a potential of 20 offspring in a
lifetime, while other species have larger fecunditys, such a star fish that can lay up
to 1 million eggs in only one year.

In the survivorship of a species, there are three general patterns. The first is where a
species has a low mortality rate until they are beyond reproductive years and have a
long life expectancy. Another type is when a species has a high morality rate when
they are young, but once they reach sexual maturity this rate is greatly reduced. The
next type is an average between the two previous examples, meaning that they have
a uniform risk of mortality throughout their life.

The number of offspring an organisms actually bears is much less lower then its
fecundity. For example a female human can comfortably have 15 births, (potential
offspring), but may only have 2 offspring. These factors can be influenced by habitat,
mating success, resource availability, and much more.

Calculating Changes in Population Growth

Births, deaths, immigration, and emigration can be used to determine the growth
rate of a population in a given period of time. This growth can be calculated
mathematically:

Population Change = { [(b+i) (d+e)] / n } x 100

where b, is the number of births, i is the immigration magnitude, d is the number of
deaths, e is the emigration magnitude, and n, is the initial population size. This
solution is expressed as a percentage.

Growth of a population is can depend of whether a population is open or closed.
An open population is a population in which change in number and density is
determined by births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. Most wild populations
are considered to be open since they have the ability to migrate and exist in
different locations.

A closed population is one in which the change in size and density is determined
by the birth and death rate only. These types are rare because migration is very
common in many species.

Biotic potential of an organism is the maximum rate a population can increase
under ideal conditions.

Population Growth Models:

A simple model of population growth can be found by graphing the change in
population size over a time.
For humans, growth is continuous because births and deaths happen year long,
however for some species, they may have specific times of the year when they mate,
know as the breeding season. Populations typically grow rapidly in breeding
seasons, then declines throughout the rest of the year until the next breeding season
comes around. These populations undergo geometric growth, which is a pattern of
population growth where organisms reproduce at fixed intervals at a constant rate.
The growth rate is constant and can be found my comparing yearly sizes.
Geometric growth can be represented with an equation:
= N(t + 1 ) / N(t)
Where is the fixed growth rate, N is the population size in a given year, t. N(0)
represents the population at the beginning, while each number in place of t
represents the year.

Example problem:
Each May, harp seals give birth on pack ice off the coast of Newfoundland. In a
hypothetical situation, an initial population of 2000 seals gives birth to 950 pups,
and during the next 12 months, 150 seals die.
a) assuming geometric growth, what will the harp seal population be in two years?

First, find the population change I on year by take the number of births and
subtracting them from the number of deaths:
950-150 = 800 seals
Initially (N=0) the population is 2000 seals.
We find the population at the end of year one by adding the number of seals who
lived to the initial population: N(1) = 2000 + 800 = 2800
Now that we have the initial population, and the new population after one year, we
can find a growth rate by dividing them:
= N(t + 1 ) / N(t)
= N(0+ 1 ) / N(0)
=2800/2000
= 1.4
The growth rate is 1.4.
Because growth rate is constant in geometric growth, we can find the population
size at the end of year two:
We must rearrange our equation
N(t+1) = N(t)
Year 2 N(2) = population at year 1 x the growth rate
** Side note: t must be 1 because to get to year two, we must add to the 1 in t +1,
which is why we put the first year numbers on the right side of the equation**
Continuing on with the equation:
N(2) = 2800 x 1.4
= 3920 seals at the end of the second year.

Calculating Exponential Growth:

As discussed, some species reproduce at specific times of the year, while others
reproduce year round.
Exponential growth is a pattern in which organisms reproduce continuously at a
constant rate. Unlike geometric growth, the chosen time interval is not restricted.

Population growth rate is determined by the following expression:

dN/dt = rN

Where dN/dt is the instantaneous growth rate of a population and r is the growth
rate per capita, and N is the population initially.

Using calculus, a model has been derived that can give an approximate estimation of
a populations double time:
t = 0.69/r
Where r is the growth rate.

The following example will show how to use these equations:

A population has 2500 yeast cells in a culture tube growing exponentially. If the
intrinsic growth rate , r, is 0.030 per hour, calculate the initial growth rate, the time
it will take to double, in size, and the population after reaching four double times:

Initial Growth Rate:
We must use the equation dN/dt = rN
r = growth rate = 0.030
N = initial population = 2500
dN/dt = instantaneous growth = rN = 2500 x 0.030
= 75 yeast per hour


Time it will take for population to double in size:
t = 0.069/r
r = 0.030 (previously calculated)
t=0.069/0.030

t= 23 hours

The yeast will double in size every 23 hours

Population Size After four double times:

We know that every 23 hours the population double, and the initial population is
2500:

After 23 hours the population has doubled to : 2500 x 2 = 5000
After another 23 hours the population has doubled to : 5000 x 2 = 10000
After the third set of 23 hours the population size has doubled to : 10000 x 2 =
20000
After the fourth time, the population is : 2000 x 2 = 40000

Therefore, the population size after 24 hours is 40000

Modeling Logistic Growth:

When calculating exponential and geometric growth, it is assumed that a population
will continue to grow at a same rate, meaning there would be unlimited resources
available. Realistically, this does not happen and so most species reach a point in
population numbers where the births and death are equal.
Logistic growth is a model of a populations growth that levels off as the size of a
population approaches to its carrying capacity point. It is a more realistic model of a
populations increase.
This can be represented in a mathematical model:

dN/dt = rN[(K-N)/K]
Where:
dN/dt is the population growth rate at a given time
r is the maximum intrinsic growth rate
N is the population size at a given time
K is the carrying capacity of the environment

Example: A population has a carrying capacity of 1000 individuals, and a maximum
growth rate of 0.50. What is the population growth rate when the population is at a
size of 900:
dN/dt = rN[(K-N)/K]
dN/dt = (0.5)(900)[(1000-900)/1000]
= 45
Therefore, the population growth rate based on a logistic growth model when the
population is at 900 is 45.


Logistic Growth Curves:

Curves formed by logistic growth patterns on a graph resemble the letter S, being
referred to as a sigmoidal curve.
The first phase of the curve is called the lag phase, which is the stage in which
population growth is very rapid. These growths tend to resemble exponential and
geometric growth. The second phase of a sigmoidal graph is the log phase, which is
the stage where the population growth rates are extremely rapid. As available
resource become limited, we tend to see environmental resistance, where a
population can no more grow rapidly and the number of deaths increases. The
stationary phase is the part of the graph where the population growth rates sow
down and the population reaches carrying capacity causing the populations to
stabilize. This is the defining characteristic of logistic growth. The dynamic
equilibrium in a population is reached at the stationary phase, which is when the
birth rates and death rates are equal and population stabilizes.

Factors Affecting Population Change:
Key Summary:
- Populations are dynamic
- Carrying Capacity determines the number of individuals an area can
accommodate
- The growth rate of a population is determined by births, deaths, immigration
and emigration
- Density dependent and density independent factor can limit the growth of
populations

Density Dependent Factors:

Density dependent factors are factors that influence population regulation and size
because of the population density.

When the individuals of a population of the same species rely on the same
resources, intra specific competition occurs. Intraspecific completion is an ecological
interaction in which individuals of the same species compete for resources in their
habitat. As population density increases there is more competition for resources so
the growth rate slows down.

Another density dependent factor is predation. Predation is an ecological
interaction in which a predator catches and kills and consumes their prey from
another species. Disease is also another significant density dependent factor. In
dense and crowded populations, diseases are easier to pass from one to another
with greater ease because of the close proximity to one another.

The Alee effect is a density depend factor of a population that has to do with small
densities. This occurs when a population fails to reproduce enough to off set death
rate numbers because the number of species in that population are just to low.
These populations usually do not survive.

Small population sizes can result in inbreeding, which looses genetic variation and
threatens a populations survival. The minimal viable population size is the
smallest number of individuals that ensures the population can present for a
determined interval of time. The minimum viable population consists of enough
individuals so that the population can cope with variations in birth and death rate,
as well as, environmental change and disasters.

Density Independent Factors:
A density independent factor is one where the population density does not influence
the population size.
Examples of these factors are environmental changes, extreme weather, or human
interference. Extreme weather can unexpectedly change the numbers of a
population regardless of the density of the population. Human interference, such as
hunting, also influences these numbers. Humans also effecting populations through
their daily lives, such as destroying habitat, spraying harmful chemicals to better
our needs, such as pesticides, that in turn will effect another species.
A limiting factor prevents a population from achieving its maximum biotic potential.
These factors can include shortages in resources, habitat, or space. The limiting
factor is the factor that is in shortest supply, and determines how much an
individual can grow.























Practice Problems (from 14.2):
1)
Initial Population N(0) = 50000
Number of Births = 32000
Number of deaths = 29000
Population at and of year 1 N(1) = 50000 + 32000 29000 = 53000 birds
Geometric Growth rate :
= N(t + 1 ) / N(t)
= 53000/ 50000
= 1.06
Therefore, the growth rate is 1.06
b) estimate population sizes after two and 10 years
2 years:
N(t) = N(t + 1 )
N(2) = 53000 x 1.06
= 56180 gannets

8 years:
N(t) = N(0)
N(8) = 50000 x 1.06^10
Population = 89 542 gannets

2)
Initial population: N= 980
Intrinsic growth rate: r = 0.345
a) Calculate instantaneous growth rate:
dN/dt = rN
dN/dt = (0.345)(980)
dN/dt = 338 mosquitos per day

b) Double time:
Doubling time = 0.69/r
=0.69/0.345
= 2 days

c) How many doubling times pass in order to reach 2000000 in the population. How
many days is this?
It will take 11 double times:
Start with initial population, and keep multiplying it by 2 until your each 2 million. It
will take 11 times.
If each double time take 2 days, and there are 11 doubling times, then it wall take 22
days.

3) Repeat sample problem 3 by using a value of 1.0 for the r max value.
A population has a carrying capacity of 1000 individuals, and a maximum growth
rate of 1.0. What is the population growth rate when the population is at a size of 20,
500, 990:
Population at 20:
dN/dt = rN[(K-N)/K]
dN/dt = (1)(20)[(1000-20)/1000]
= 19.6
Therefore, the population growth rate based on a logistic growth model when the
population is at 20 is 19.6.

Population at 500:
dN/dt = rN[(K-N)/K]
dN/dt = (1)(500)[(1000-500)/1000]
= 250
Therefore, the population growth rate based on a logistic growth model when the
population is at 500 is 250.

Population at 990:
dN/dt = rN[(K-N)/K]
dN/dt = (1)(990)[(1000-990)/1000]
= 19.6
Therefore, the population growth rate based on a logistic growth model when the
population is at 990 is 9.9.

4) No it does not. Having a maximum rate of growth is part of the natural process of
a logistic graph curve. Each curve will have a point half way up that has the highest
rate. Eventually all logistic graph curves will reach a carrying capacity, otherwise
known as the stationary phase. Carrying capacity is generally determined by the
amount of food present, so as the population reaches carry capacity the growth rate
should decrease.

14.2 End of chapter questions:
#1-5,7,8
1)
Initial Population: 34
Population increase = 20 + 4 = 24
Population decrease = 9 + 11 + 8 = 28
= N(t + 1 ) / N(t)
= [(28-24) +34]/34
= 0.88

2)
Initial population: 90
Births =342
Immigration = unknown
Deaths = 43
Emigration = 0
Population Change = 429%

pop change = { [(b+i) (d+e)] / n } x 100
.429 = { [(43+i) (43)] / 90 } x 100
solve for I
immigration = 87 birds
Therefore the immigration into the habitat was 87 birds.
3)
Initial population = 42
Births: 263
Deaths: 36

Population Change = 42 + 363 36 = 269
= N(t + 1 ) / N(t)
= 269/42
= 6.2 %

The population growth rate is 6.2 %

4a) Exponential growth is occurring because the breeding is year round in ideal
conditions.
b)
r = 4.5
N= 2
We know that there are pairs so that equals 2 and there is 4.5 per parent pair. To
calculate the population in 8 years, you must take 4.5 to the power of 8, and the
multiply it by 2 to represent each pair: 2(4.5)^8 = 336302.5 organisms.

5a) The growth that is occurring is an exponential growth. The numbers of cats are
exponential increasing.
b) For the cats to reach biotic potential, which is the max reproductive rate under
ideal conditions, there would have to be ideal conditions for the cats to live in. For
example, unlimited food and resources would be the largest things, but asides to
that, no predators of the cat, no harm from humans, and no loss of habitat and food.
Also, there would have to be no disease or sickness.
c) Factors that would contribute to biotic resistance are opposite of this factors that
would enable biotic potential. For example, shortage of food and shelter, human
interference, sickness, and predation would all contribute to environmental
resistance.

7) Initial Population = 198
Numbers of births = 34
Number of Deaths = 86
Immigration = 12
Population at end of year 1: 198+34+12-86 = 158
= N(t + 1 ) / N(t)
= 158/198
= .80 %

There for there is a decrease in population by .20 %, so the rate is -.20 %

b) If the growth is rate negative for one year, it is not a large concern. For that
particular year, there could have been several factors that contributed in a slight
decline in numbers. For example, weather tends to play a large role in a frogs
habitat. Shortage or excess rain tends to influence a frogs pattern. Large amount of
rain can ruin a frogs habitat while minor amount of rain would reduce the moisture
in that air, which in turn would reduce bug populations, which are the main source
of foo for a frog. pH of water also plays a role in frog population. If the marsh had a
slightly higher or lower pH, it may influence the frogs to move to other parts of the
marsh.
c) Tracking a population over one year is not an accurate way to make a conclusion
in the environment As mentioned in the previous part of this question, there could
have been several factor that could contribute to a frogs population. In that
particular year, the environment could have gone through some changes such as
weather-influenced change, human influenced change, etc. It is more accurate to
collect date over several years and then analyze them.

8a)
If each pair produces 6 offspring, then the total number is 8. To find the per person
ratio you divide by 2
8/2 = 4
To find the population after 5 years:
population = 2 (4)
5

population = 2048
This shows exponential growth.
b)
generation N(t) = N(0) t
Generation: Population
0 2
1 8
2 32
3 128
4
5
512
2048



c) The graph would still display an exponential model, but the graph would not
grow as fast. The numbers along the y axis would be much smaller because the rate
is lower.

Section 4.3 Questions:

1) Natality, morality, immigration and emigration all affect a population by
influencing the numbers in a population. All of these factors can contribute to
population density because they increase or decrease the total population numbers.
2) A density dependent factor is a factor that influences a population directly
resulting from its population density. These factors can include disease, intraspecific
completion, and predation. A density independent factor that influences population
regulation regardless of a populations size. These factors include weather changes,
and human intervention.

3)
a: density independent
b: density independent
c: density dependent

A & B are both density independent because they would change population numbers
regardless of how many there are in the area.
C is dependent because the hawk will be able to drive out birds if they are in larger
sizes.

4) A density dependent factor may be: say there wasnt enough rain during a season,
then plants would go dry, so herbivores would have less food to eat. If there are lots
0
500
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1500
2000
2500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
P
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Generation
Population vs Generation
of herbivores, so in other words if there is a dense population of herbivores, there
population may decrease because they are dependent of that rainfall.
Density independent factors may include human deforestation. Because of human
activity in a forest, animals will loose there habitat regardless of the their numbers.

5) This is a density dependent regulation because as the numbers of breeding pairs
increase the number of offspring are decreasing. This could be because as the
numbers are increasing resources are decreasing which would lower a population
which would lower the number of breeding pairs.


The graph above depicts that as the population is increasing the food supply is
exponentially decreasing in the negative direction. Logically, this would make sense
because the more organisms are the faster the food supply is decreasing. The
decrease is slow at first, but as the density is increasing the food supply is
decreasing faster and faster.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
F
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S
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%
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Population Desnity
Food Suply vs. Population Density