Pengolahan Data Ppst2 Modul5 Kelompok14

Prakt
Praktikum Perancangan Sistem Terintegrasi -2

Modul 5 - Peramalan
Penanggung Jawab Modul : Jeihan Sumawi P. (13411109) & Evita Rosalia J. (14411032)
Laboratorium Perencanaan dan Optimasi Sistem Industri

Program Studi Teknik Industri
Fakultas Teknologi Industri
2014
ntegrasi -2
14411032)
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
Dongkrak A
1221
717
878
714
1191
1339
963
1226
905
1374
1721
1809
1237
1508
1152
1651
1910
2116
1522
1774
1438
2002
2214
2268
1732
1988
1749
2186
2488
2624
1983
1970
1957
2506
2750
2876
2312
2510
2207
2706
3031
Regional 1
Dongkrak B
2522
2640
2649
2640
2675
2595
2633
2640
2661
2672
2678
2692
2792
2793
2831
2738
2862
2878
2791
2808
2896
2845
2929
2853
2919
2891
3015
2932
3026
3034
3051
3063
3071
3048
3112
3050
3138
3071
3177
3181
3211
3152
Regional 2
Dongkrak C
981
1068
967
926
959
1091
1044
1096
1069
1061
981
1088
1116
1094
1061
937
1116
1049
992
1045
941
1077
1051
1051
1048
953
1120
934
1081
1034
972
935
1047
1105
1043
961
966
991
988
950
1097
1047
Dongkrak A
1222
707
871
726
1195
1332
1494
946
1238
909
1370
1722
1801
1224
1510
1148
1640
1916
2106
1528
1781
1428
1998
2218
2274
1724
1988
1757
2173
2484
2240
1988
2188
1953
2512
2756
2873
2329
2506
2210
2712
3048
43
44
45
46
47
48
3092
2613
2817
2564
2966
3223
3151
3173
3266
3213
3211
3303
1107
976
914
981
959
954
3099
2610
2827
2565
2966
3218
Regional 2
Dongkrak B
2537
2523
2584
2576
2679
2613
2640
2643
2667
2755
2712
2720
2719
2819
2836
2844
2823
2888
2898
2808
2924
2870
2873
2892
2905
3001
2958
2951
2982
3051
3008
3074
3117
3129
3132
3087
3162
3097
3128
3223
3131
Dongkrak C
1382
1261
1229
1360
1218
1360
1385
1413
1298
1292
1391
1219
1395
1380
1228
1246
1217
1401
1262
1277
1292
1247
1343
1347
1412
1264
1277
1359
1374
1425
1394
1247
1415
1345
1270
1278
1421
1395
1388
1326
1293
1286
Dongkrak A
1237
718
880
708
1177
1338
1483
960
1215
912
1378
1715
1803
1228
1507
1154
1639
1907
2118
1530
1759
1426
1985
2213
2271
1720
1986
1740
2179
2490
2619
1970
2195
1956
2516
2746
2873
2324
2499
2219
2696
3035
Regional 3
Dongkrak B
2611
2623
2619
2591
2692
2689
2643
2705
2726
2713
2681
2700
2766
2799
2732
2842
2841
2790
2891
2837
2825
2843
2956
2974
2899
2985
2920
2926
3043
2967
3053
2995
3003
3013
3030
3124
3078
3164
3104
3182
3195
3155
Dongkrak C
2671
2686
2679
2650
2669
2636
2669
2678
2663
2646
2671
2638
2652
2768
2760
2626
2745
2774
2783
2675
2652
2782
2688
2743
2700
2708
2798
2629
2651
2690
2778
2620
2761
2787
2636
2773
2639
2771
2826
2819
2630
3169
3168
3196
3293
3194
3323
1288
1395
1282
1240
1253
1276
3101
2622
2809
2564
2966
3220
3250
3272
3222
3193
3230
3296
2703
2669
2784
2642
2633
2758
Demand
Plot Data Awal

Dongkrak A Regional 1
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Demand
Plot Data Awal

Dongkrak B Regional 1
3400
3200
3000
2800
2600
2400
Plot Data Awal

Dongkrak C Regional 1
Demand
Plot Data Awal

1200
1100
1000
900
800
Plot D
Dongkrak
Demand
4000
3000
2000
Dongkrak A
1000
0
Plot D
Dongkrak
Demand
Dongkrak B
3400
3200
3000
2800
2600
2400
Plot D
Dongkrak
Plot D
Dongkrak
Demand
Dongkrak C
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
Plot Data Awal

Dongkrak A
Plot Data Awal

Dongkrak B
Plot Data Awal

Plot Data Awal

Dongkrak C
Demand
Plot Data Awal

4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Demand
Plot Data Awal

3400
3200
3000
2800
2600
2400
Plot Data Awal

Demand
Plot Data Awal

2900
2800
2700
2600
2500
Dongkrak A
Dongkrak B
Dongkrak C
Perlakuan Terhadap Missing Data

Dongkrak
A
B
C
Regional
1
2
3
Periode
7
21
19
Perlakuan
mempedulikan
mempedulikan
mempedulikan
Metode
interpolasi
interpolasi
interpolasi
Hasil
1151
2655
2716
Miyahana:
Di round
yahana:
round
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
Regional 1
Dongkrak A
1221
717
878
714
1191
1339
1151
963
1226
905
1374
1721
1809
1237
1508
1152
1651
1910
2116
1522
1774
1438
2002
2214
2268
1732
1988
1749
2186
2488
2624
1983
1970
1957
2506
2750
2876
2312
2510
Dongkrak B
2522
2640
2649
2640
2675
2595
2633
2640
2661
2672
2678
2692
2792
2793
2831
2738
2862
2878
2791
2808
2896
2845
2929
2853
2919
2891
3015
2932
3026
3034
3051
3063
3071
3048
3112
3050
3138
3071
3177
Regiona
Dongkrak C
981
1068
967
926
959
1091
1044
1096
1069
1061
981
1088
1116
1094
1061
937
1116
1049
992
1045
941
1077
1051
1051
1048
953
1120
934
1081
1034
972
935
1047
1105
1043
961
966
991
988
Dongkrak A
1222
707
871
726
1195
1332
1494
946
1238
909
1370
1722
1801
1224
1510
1148
1640
1916
2106
1528
1781
1428
1998
2218
2274
1724
1988
1757
2173
2484
2240
1988
2188
1953
2512
2756
2873
2329
2506
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
2207
2706
3031
3092
2613
2817
2564
2966
3223
3181
3211
3152
3151
3173
3266
3213
3211
3303
950
1097
1047
1107
976
914
981
959
954
2210
2712
3048
3099
2610
2827
2565
2966
3218
Total
92851
140172
49024
93030
Regional 2
Dongkrak B
2537
2523
2584
2576
2679
2613
2640
2643
2655
2667
2755
2712
2720
2719
2819
2836
2844
2823
2888
2898
2808
2924
2870
2873
2892
2905
3001
2958
2951
2982
3051
3008
3074
3117
3129
3132
3087
3162
3097
Regional 3
Dongkrak C
1382
1261
1229
1360
1218
1360
1385
1413
1298
1292
1391
1219
1395
1380
1228
1246
1217
1401
1262
1277
1292
1247
1343
1347
1412
1264
1277
1359
1374
1425
1394
1247
1415
1345
1270
1278
1421
1395
1388
Dongkrak A
1237
718
880
708
1177
1338
1483
960
1215
912
1378
1715
1803
1228
1507
1154
1639
1907
2118
1530
1759
1426
1985
2213
2271
1720
1986
1740
2179
2490
2619
1970
2195
1956
2516
2746
2873
2324
2499
Dongkrak B
2611
2623
2619
2591
2692
2689
2643
2705
2726
2713
2681
2700
2766
2799
2732
2842
2841
2790
2891
2837
2825
2843
2956
2974
2899
2985
2920
2926
3043
2967
3053
2995
3003
3013
3030
3124
3078
3164
3104
Data Agre
Dongkrak C
2671
2686
2679
2650
2669
2636
2669
2678
2663
2646
2671
2638
2652
2768
2760
2626
2745
2774
2783
2675
2652
2782
2688
2716
2743
2700
2708
2798
2629
2651
2690
2778
2620
2761
2787
2636
2773
2639
2771
Dongkrak A
3680
2142
2629
2148
3563
4009
4128
2869
3679
2726
4122
5158
5413
3689
4525
3454
4930
5733
6340
4580
5314
4292
5985
6645
6813
5176
5962
5246
6538
7462
7483
5941
6353
5866
7534
8252
8622
6965
7515
3128
3223
3131
3169
3168
3196
3293
3194
3323
1326
1293
1286
1288
1395
1282
1240
1253
1276
2219
2696
3035
3101
2622
2809
2564
2966
3220
3182
3195
3155
3250
3272
3222
3193
3230
3296
2826
2819
2630
2703
2669
2784
2642
2633
2758
6636
8114
9114
9292
7845
8453
7693
8898
9661
139977
63346
93306
140388
129725
279187
Data Agregat
Dongkrak B
7670
7786
7852
7807
8046
7897
7916
7988
8042
8052
8114
8104
8278
8311
8382
8416
8547
8491
8570
8543
8529
8612
8755
8700
8710
8781
8936
8816
9020
8983
9155
9066
9148
9178
9271
9306
9303
9397
9378
Dongkrak C
5034
5015
4875
4936
4846
5087
5098
5187
5030
4999
5043
4945
5163
5242
5049
4809
5078
5224
5037
4997
4885
5106
5082
5114
5203
4917
5105
5091
5084
5110
5056
4960
5082
5211
5100
4875
5160
5025
5147
9491
9629
9438
9570
9613
9684
9699
9635
9922
5102
5209
4963
5098
5040
4980
4863
4845
4988
420537
242095
Dongkrak B
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
gkrak B
Plot Data Tren (Dongkrak B)
Plot Data :
Tren
Metode :
1. Double Exponential Smoothing
2 . Linear Regression
3 . Moving Average with Linear Trend
Double Exponential
Smoothing
(Holt's Method)
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
0.1
0.05
D(t)
S(t)
7670
7786
7852
7807
8046
7897
7916
7988
8042
8052
8114
8104
8278
8311
8382
8416
8547
8491
8570
8543
8529
8612
8755
8700
8710
8781
8936
8816
9020
8983
9155
9066
9148
9178
9271
9306
9303
9397
7670
7681.6
7699.162
7711.23199
7746.47382105
7764.7890998898
7783.8339053461
7808.83506073
7837.631925272
7865.5709437333
7897.8482056299
7926.9785003086
7971.480873018
8016.3656040913
8065.3350340368
8114.3908458176
8173.1491221912
8222.3008253165
8275.7808540027
8322.6839755503
8364.5983650653
8411.4433238036
8468.9065700489
8516.5539588195
8561.353838919
8609.5169618139
8669.2211876102
8712.2888848889
8771.9683680152
8823.2200609889
8887.3454843602
8937.4966379726
8991.4751930339
9043.8385166239
9100.9363152717
9156.6746524785
9207.2857827021
9262.7143709899
G(t)
0
0.58
1.4291
1.9611445
3.6251788275
4.3596838281
5.0939399095
6.0893006832
7.2246788762
8.2603958554
9.4612391575
10.4446919336
12.1475759723
13.7844337274
15.5436835383
17.2192899504
19.2962392716
20.7890124643
22.4235632754
23.647541189
24.5608836053
25.6750873619
27.2644953061
28.2836399793
29.1094519853
30.0621355308
31.5442400441
32.1204129058
33.4983664168
34.3860327447
35.873002276
36.5869098428
37.4564921038
38.2018336781
39.1466319266
39.9762171906
40.5079628422
41.2539941145
f(t)
7670
7682.18
7700.5911
7713.1931345
7750.0989998775
7769.1487837179
7788.9278452556
7814.9243614133
7844.8566041481
7873.8313395888
7907.3094447874
7937.4231922422
7983.6284489903
8030.1500378187
8080.8787175751
8131.610135768
8192.4453614628
8243.0898377808
8298.2044172781
8346.3315167393
8389.1592486706
8437.1184111655
8496.171065355
8544.8375987989
8590.4632909043
8639.5790973447
8700.7654276543
8744.4092977947
8805.4667344321
8857.6060937335
8923.2184866362
8974.0835478154
9028.9316851376
9082.0403503019
9140.0829471983
9196.650869669
9247.7937455444
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
9378
9491
9629
9438
9570
9613
9684
9699
9635
9922
9311.371528594
9366.7961127947
9431.0992580113
9470.8615924162
9519.6833854186
9568.1745821936
9619.1407863801
9666.8346662161
9703.5199847374
9764.8941714829
41.624152289
42.3141738846
43.4136224512
43.2310580489
43.5105947965
43.7596248955
44.11995386
44.2986501588
43.9179835769
44.7907937354
9303.9683651044
9352.995680883
9409.1102866792
9474.5128804625
9514.0926504651
9563.1939802151
9611.934207089
9663.2607402401
9711.1333163749
9747.4379683144
9809.6849652183
9854.4757589537
9899.266552689
9944.0573464244
9988.8481401597
10033.6389338951
10078.4297276305
10123.2205213658
10168.0113151012
10212.8021088365
10257.5929025719
10302.3836963073
Total
Visualisasi
Axis Title
= 0.1
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
Ringkasan

0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Ringkasan
MAD
MSE
195.3925774627 46898.2523252224
100.816537382 15423.6040493235
77.2984345692 9880.2097851019
68.6193691566 8204.3746582163
67.25073315 7685.9209546179
68.3749828979 7676.0198581
70.5437879436 7963.1784936869
72.9306308345 8469.5551992566
75.4541506878
9173.80580954
Kesimpulan
MAD
67.25073315
Nilai Minimal
MSE
7676.0198580958
Kesimpulan
Dari tabel ringkasan dan tabel nilai minimal dapat dilihat bahwa nilai m
yang berasal dari parameter = 0.5; MSE = 7676.019858 yang berasal
MAPE = 0.771% yang berasal dari parameter = 0.5. Dengan demikia
dari parameter = 0.5 yang menghasilkan error minimum (MAD dan M
|D(t)-f(t)|
116
169.82
106.4089
332.8068655
146.9010001225
146.8512162821
199.0721547444
227.0756385867
207.1433958519
240.1686604112
196.6905552126
340.5768077578
327.3715510097
351.8499621813
335.1212824249
415.389864232
298.5546385372
326.9101622192
244.7955827219
182.6684832607
222.8407513294
317.8815888345
203.828934645
165.1624012011
190.5367090957
296.4209026553
115.2345723457
275.5907022053
177.5332655679
297.3939062665
142.7815133638
173.9164521846
149.0683148624
188.9596496981
165.9170528017
106.349130331
149.2062544557
(D(t)-f(t))^2
13456
28838.8324
11322.85399921
110760.40972394
21579.90383699
21565.279723543
39629.722794578
51563.345639564
42908.386445042
57680.98544373
38687.17450985
115992.5619825
107172.13241048
123798.39588699
112306.2739341
172548.73930665
89134.872192067
106870.25416218
59924.877320157
33367.774776778
49658.000453044
101048.70451996
41546.234598501
27278.618770528
36304.237513019
87865.351530995
13279.006663697
75950.235142019
31518.060383218
88443.135484429
20386.560558459
30246.932340476
22221.36249591
35705.74921402
27528.468410405
11310.137522154
22262.506368685
|D(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
0.0148985358
0.0216276108
0.0136299347
0.0413630208
0.0186021274
0.0185511895
0.0249214014
0.0282362147
0.0257257074
0.0295992926
0.024270799
0.0411424025
0.0393901517
0.0419768507
0.039819544
0.0486006627
0.0351613047
0.0381458766
0.0286545221
0.0214173389
0.0258756098
0.0363085767
0.0234286132
0.0189623882
0.0216987483
0.0331715424
0.0130710722
0.0305532929
0.019763249
0.0324843153
0.0157491191
0.019011418
0.0162419171
0.020381798
0.0178290407
0.0114317027
0.0158780733
74.0316348956
138.0043191171
219.8897133208
36.5128804625
55.9073495349
49.8060197849
72.065792911
35.7392597599
76.1333163749
174.5620316856
5480.6829653139
19045.192094962
48351.486024297
1333.1904396659
3125.6317320212
2480.6396068149
5193.4785078865
1277.294688183
5796.2818622454
30471.902906215
0.0078941816
0.0145405457
0.0228361941
0.0038687095
0.0058419383
0.005181111
0.0074417382
0.0036848396
0.0079017453
0.0175934319
9183.4511407469 2204217.8592855
1.0643594003
MAD
MSE
195.3925774627 46898.252325222
MAP
2.265%
Axis Title
= 0.1
10000
9500
D(t
)
9000
f(t)
8500
8000
7500
MAP
2.265%
1.177%
0.896%
0.789%
0.771%
0.782%
0.805%
0.831%
0.859%
i Minimal
MAP
0.771%
simpulan
at dilihat bahwa nilai minimum MAD =67,25073315

76.019858 yang berasal dari parameter = 0.6 dan
= 0.5. Dengan demikian model terbaik dihasilkan
minimum (MAD dan MAPE)
0.2
0.05
D(t)
S(t)
7670
7786
7852
7807
8046
7897
7916
7988
8042
8052
8114
8104
8278
8311
8382
8416
8547
8491
8570
8543
8529
8612
8755
8700
8710
8781
8936
8816
9020
8983
9155
9066
9148
9178
9271
9306
9303
9397
7670
7693.2
7725.888
7744.29952
7807.4557408
7830.566160032
7853.5188338173
7886.9057845073
7925.4262872143
7959.4084265077
7999.9200536774
8031.4701548764
8092.2355342868
8149.3054824722
8210.7783861959
8268.4689253128
8342.2966673533
8392.2058943121
8448.921216936
8490.1042628658
8520.779656981
8562.0021757033
8624.0801689241
8664.0517618115
8698.3885185034
8740.1740386718
8805.0107144198
8834.189947874
8898.1514351587
8943.1391106348
9013.9278599093
9054.1695807299
9102.881261579
9148.3017936425
9203.5352013569
9255.3965755149
9296.7917090861
9348.7698988522
G(t)
0
1.16
2.7364
3.520156
6.50195924
7.3323822396
8.1133968169
9.3770745105
10.8342459204
11.991640589
13.417639918
14.3242629821
16.6463188035
18.6675002726
20.8077704452
22.6519088787
25.2107005368
26.4456268579
27.9591116462
28.6203083604
28.7230626481
29.3480354519
30.9845333403
31.4338863177
31.5790298364
32.089354353
33.7267204227
33.4993460743
35.0224531348
35.5207142519
37.284116003
37.4319962439
37.9959804742
38.3672080536
39.2105180367
39.8430608427
39.9206644791
40.5235407435
f(t)
7670
7694.36
7728.6244
7747.819676
7813.95770004
7837.898542272
7861.632230634
7896.282859018
7936.260533135
7971.400067097
8013.337693595
8045.794417858
8108.88185309
8167.972982745
8231.586156641
8291.120834192
8367.50736789
8418.65152117
8476.880328582
8518.724571226
8549.502719629
8591.350211155
8655.064702264
8695.485648129
8729.96754834
8772.263393025
8838.737434843
8867.689293948
8933.173888293
8978.659824887
9051.211975912
9091.601576974
9140.877242053
9186.669001696
9242.745719394
9295.239636358
9336.712373565
|D(t)-f(t)|
116
157.64
78.3756
298.180324
83.04229996
78.1014577284
126.3677693658
145.7171409821
115.7394668653
142.5999329033
90.6623064046
232.2055821415
202.1181469097
214.0270172552
184.413843359
255.8791658084
123.4926321099
151.34847883
66.1196714178
10.2754287738
62.4972803709
163.6497888449
44.9352977356
14.5143518708
51.0324516603
163.7366069752
22.7374348425
152.3107060517
49.8261117065
176.3401751133
14.7880240877
56.3984230262
37.1227579468
84.3309983038
63.2542806064
7.7603636424
60.2876264348
(D(t)-f(t))^2
13456
24850.3696
6142.73467536
88911.50562075
6896.023582647
6099.837699301
15968.8131345
21233.485176
13395.62419027
20334.74086401
8219.653802593
53919.43237769
40851.74531022
45807.56411515
34008.46562243
65474.14749482
15250.43018543
22906.36204415
4371.810948393
105.5844364855
3905.910053758
26781.25338897
2019.180982585
210.6664102294
2604.311122458
26809.67646377
516.9909432183
23198.55117796
2482.641407791
31095.857359
218.6856564171
3180.782119846
1378.099157579
7111.717274923
4001.104015035
60.2232438624
3634.597901139
9378
9491
9629
9438
9570
9613
9684
9699
9635
9922
9387.0347516766
9440.1562864193
9510.7619513493
9530.2288637798
9571.2801050864
9612.7082970808
9660.0537677055
9701.1696065282
9721.2405815211
9793.8349557002
40.4106063475
41.0461527673
42.5241283754
41.3712675782
41.3552662646
41.3589125511
41.6582404548
41.6311203732
40.5531131042
42.1551761579
9389.293439596
9427.445358024
9481.202439187
9553.286079725
9571.600131358
9612.635371351
9654.067209632
9701.71200816
9742.800726901
9761.793694625
9835.990131858
9878.145308016
9920.300484174
9962.455660332
10004.61083649
10046.76601265
10088.92118881
10131.07636496
10173.23154112
10215.38671728
10257.54189344
10299.6970696
Total
11.2934395957
63.5546419759
147.7975608134
115.2860797247
1.6001313579
0.364628649
29.9327903681
2.7120081603
107.8007269014
160.2063053747
127.5417779012
4039.192516687
21844.1189824
13290.88017829
2.5604203627
0.1329540517
895.9719392228
7.3549882614
11620.99672047
25666.06028182
4738.3772569559 724909.3903182
MAD
MSE
100.816537382 15423.60404932
Axis Title
= 0.2
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
D(t
)
f(t)
|D(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
0.0148985358
0.0200764137
0.0100391444
0.0370594487
0.0105156768
0.0098662781
0.0158197007
0.0181195152
0.0143740023
0.0175745542
0.0111873527
0.028050928
0.0243193535
0.0255341228
0.0219122913
0.0299378923
0.0145439444
0.0176602659
0.0077396314
0.0012047636
0.0072569996
0.0186921518
0.0051649768
0.0016664009
0.0058116902
0.018323255
0.0025791101
0.0168858876
0.0055467118
0.0192616248
0.001631152
0.0061651096
0.0040447546
0.0090962138
0.0067971503
0.0008341786
0.0064156248
0.3
0.05
D(t)
7670
7786
7852
7807
8046
7897
7916
7988
8042
8052
8114
8104
8278
8311
8382
8416
8547
8491
8570
8543
8529
8612
8755
8700
8710
8781
8936
8816
9020
8983
9155
9066
9148
9178
9271
9306
9303
9397
S(t)
G(t)
7670
7704.8
7750.178
7769.96993
7856.07973205
7874.505397504
7893.44078236
7928.633940023
7970.359641287
8003.642237553
8046.265421375
8074.11766873
8146.262476848
8208.639905378
8275.139506768
8333.492135139
8414.876592972
8457.027564561
8510.742831204
8541.132375387
8558.233070684
8594.665061331
8663.327478865
8696.266258955
8722.379411134
8761.772926492
8836.136793345
8853.689448243
8926.610964947
8967.956862166
9048.724637287
9080.156210312
9126.545968275
9168.340609325
9225.64174892
9276.932920403
9312.372746635
9365.240033797
0
1.74
3.9219
4.7154015
8.7851215275
9.2671487238
9.7505605304
11.0226903871
12.5578409309
13.5940786976
15.0455339539
15.685869624
18.5088165486
20.7022471477
22.9921148598
24.7601405354
27.5913564003
28.3193371597
29.5891336339
29.6291541613
29.0027312181
29.3741941896
31.3386053567
31.4186140934
31.1533409977
31.5653497157
33.7052755726
32.8976445388
34.8988381471
35.2211911007
37.4985203017
37.1951729379
37.6549021891
37.8618891322
38.8338516553
39.4567176467
39.255873076
39.9364437803
0.0012042482
0.0066963062
0.0153492118
0.0122150964
0.0001672029
3.7930786336E-005
0.0030909532
0.0002796173
0.0111884512
0.0161465738
9378
9491
9629
9438
9570
9613
9684
9699
9635
9922
9397.023534304
9452.886631645
9533.962500308
9534.841170868
9573.603622697
9613.583284637
9662.860298725
9702.171304106
9710.441438311
9801.19891068
39.5287966166
40.3455116528
42.3820295034
40.3068615562
40.2296410698
40.2171421133
40.6701357121
40.6021791955
38.985576946
41.5741717171
0.5529824
MAP
1.177%
Axis Title
=0
10000
9500
9000
D(t
)
f(t)
8500
8000
7500
f(t)
|D(t)-f(t)|
(D(t)-f(t))^2
7670
7706.54
7754.0999
7774.6853315
7864.864853578
7883.772546228
7903.19134289
7939.65663041
7982.917482218
8017.23631625
8061.310955329
8089.803538354
8164.771293397
8229.342152525
8298.131621628
8358.252275675
8442.467949373
8485.34690172
8540.331964838
8570.761529548
8587.235801902
8624.039255521
8694.666084221
8727.684873048
8753.532752132
8793.338276208
8869.842068918
8886.587092782
8961.509803094
9003.178053267
9086.223157588
9117.35138325
9164.200870464
9206.202498457
9264.475600575
9316.389638049
9351.62861971
116
145.46
52.9001
271.3146685
32.1351464225
32.2274537719
84.8086571099
102.3433695899
69.082517782
96.7636837498
42.6890446709
188.1964616457
146.2287066034
152.6578474747
117.8683783725
188.7477243253
48.5320506274
84.6530982795
2.6680351618
41.7615295481
24.7641980983
130.9607444792
5.3339157787
17.6848730483
27.4672478685
142.6617237922
53.8420689181
133.4129072185
21.4901969058
151.8219467334
20.2231575883
30.6486167503
13.7991295361
64.7975015431
41.5243994248
13.3896380493
45.3713802895
13456
21158.6116
2798.42058001
73611.6493433
1032.6676356
1038.60877662
7192.50832079
10474.165299
4772.3942631
9363.21049282
1822.35453492
35417.908176
21382.8346349
23304.4183956
13892.9546202
35625.703438
2355.35993811
7166.14704832
7.1184116245
1744.02535019
613.265507451
17150.7165946
28.4506575344
312.754734736
754.449705468
20352.3674354
2898.96838538
17799.0038125
461.828563051
23049.9035099
408.976102843
939.337708705
190.415975953
4198.71620622
1724.27574759
179.282407092
2058.56214938
|D(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
0.0148985358
0.0185252165
0.0067759831
0.033720441
0.0040692854
0.0040711791
0.0106170077
0.0127261091
0.0085795477
0.0119255218
0.0052676511
0.0227345327
0.0175945983
0.0182125802
0.0140052731
0.0220835058
0.0057157049
0.0098778411
0.0003123066
0.0048964157
0.0028755455
0.0149583946
0.0006130938
0.0020304102
0.0031280319
0.0159648303
0.0061073127
0.0147907879
0.0023923185
0.0165835005
0.0022306593
0.0033503079
0.0015035007
0.0069892678
0.0044621104
0.0014392817
0.0048282835
9405.176477578
9436.552330921
9493.232143298
9576.344529812
9575.148032424
9613.833263767
9653.80042675
9703.530434437
9742.773483302
9749.427015257
9842.773082397
9884.347254114
9925.921425831
9967.495597548
10009.06976927
10050.64394098
10092.2181127
10133.79228442
10175.36645613
10216.94062785
10258.51479957
10300.08897129
Total
27.1764775776
54.447669079
135.7678567025
138.3445298116
5.1480324243
0.8332637668
30.1995732499
4.5304344371
107.7734833015
172.572984743
3633.026424751
738.560933528
0.0028978969
2964.54866814
0.0057367684
18432.9109136
0.0140998917
19139.2089288
0.0146582464
26.5022378418
0.0005379344
0.6943285051 8.6680929E-005
912.014224476
0.003118502
20.5248361892
0.0004671033
11615.1237029
0.0111856236
29781.4350631
0.0173929636
464369.8599
0.4210384853
MAD
MSE
77.2984345692 9880.2097851
MAP
0.896%
D(t
)
f(t)
Axis Title
= 0.3
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
0.4
0.05
D(t)
S(t)
7670
7786
7852
7807
8046
7897
7916
7988
8042
8052
8114
8104
8278
8311
8382
8416
8547
8491
8570
8543
8529
8612
8755
8700
8710
8781
8936
8816
9020
8983
9155
9066
9148
9178
9271
9306
9303
9397
7670
7716.4
7772.032
7789.01056
7895.1574848
7902.262489984
7914.0202432947
7949.9144904153
7993.8127488793
8025.1154489801
8069.234760061
8092.6016515083
8176.4497533465
8241.9896193825
8311.0937466165
8367.5743480245
8454.8312219089
8486.6287218013
8537.3946473007
8557.7063096544
8563.9991808735
8600.2749199875
8679.4748650561
8706.5053347962
8726.5935099443
8766.7145448343
8853.0728748716
8858.5464153965
8942.5796114036
8979.7479367797
9070.9139732698
9091.6953156985
9136.4502148417
9175.5341500308
9236.2338281437
9287.3489584485
9317.1910574624
9372.4124957215
G(t)
0
2.32
4.9856
5.585248
10.61333184
10.4379155072
10.5039073974
11.7734243835
13.3796660876
14.2758177882
15.7679924529
16.1479374026
19.5329456244
21.8332916449
24.1968334244
25.8110218236
28.8833144266
29.0290236999
30.1158687899
29.6256584681
28.4590191056
28.849855106
31.3673596042
31.150515111
30.5973981128
31.0735799517
33.837817456
32.4196036094
35.0002832293
35.1086853366
37.9115528943
37.055042371
37.4400352096
37.5222302086
38.6811026038
39.3028039889
38.8297687401
39.6493522161
f(t)
7670
7718.72
7777.0176
7794.595808
7905.77081664
7912.7004054912
7924.5241506921
7961.6879147988
8007.1924149668
8039.3912667683
8085.0027525139
8108.7495889109
8195.9826989709
8263.8229110275
8335.2905800409
8393.3853698481
8483.7145363355
8515.6577455012
8567.5105160906
8587.3319681224
8592.4581999791
8629.1247750935
8710.8422246603
8737.6558499071
8757.1909080571
8797.7881247859
8886.9106923275
8890.9660190059
8977.5798946329
9014.8566221164
9108.8255261641
9128.7503580695
9173.8902500513
9213.0563802394
9274.9149307475
9326.6517624374
9356.0208262025
|D(t)-f(t)|
116
133.28
29.9824
251.404192
8.77081664
3.2995945088
63.4758493079
80.3120852012
44.8075850332
74.6087332317
18.9972474862
169.2504110891
115.0173010291
118.1770889725
80.7094199591
153.6146301519
7.2854636645
54.3422544988
24.5105160906
58.3319681224
19.5418000209
125.8752249065
10.8422246603
27.6558499071
23.8090919429
138.2118752141
70.9106923275
129.0339809941
5.4201053672
140.1433778837
42.8255261641
19.2496419305
4.1097499487
57.9436197606
31.0850692525
23.6517624374
40.9791737975
9378
9491
9629
9438
9570
9613
9684
9699
9635
9922
9398.4371087626
9458.8431344119
9550.9298871133
9531.3433409919
9570.5245464992
9611.2227788736
9664.0772627207
9702.1884077746
9699.3913266515
9811.2252514445
38.9681152573
40.0400107769
42.6423478731
39.5309031734
39.5134182901
39.5726589943
40.236750237
40.1304699778
37.9840924228
41.6765840413
9412.0618479376
9437.4052240199
9498.8831451889
9593.5722349865
9570.8742441653
9610.0379647893
9650.7954378679
9704.3140129577
9742.3188777524
9737.3754190742
9852.9018354858
9894.5784195271
9936.2550035684
9977.9315876097
10019.6081716509
10061.2847556922
10102.9613397335
10144.6379237748
10186.3145078161
10227.9910918574
10269.6676758986
10311.3442599399
Total
34.0618479376
53.5947759801
130.1168548112
155.5722349865
0.8742441653
2.9620352107
33.2045621321
5.3140129577
107.3188777524
184.6245809258
3225.1103503618
MAD
68.6193691566
Axis Title
= 0.4
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
(D(t)-f(t))^2
13456
17763.5584
898.94430976
63204.067755173
76.9272245325
10.8873239225
4029.1834453597
6450.0310293661
2007.7196765044
5566.4630744358
360.8954120501
28645.701653834
13228.97953602
13965.82435802
6514.0104701375
23597.454596704
53.0779808071
2953.0806240134
600.7653990272
3402.6185050355
381.8819480578
15844.572245266
117.5538355835
764.846034085
566.8728591459
19102.522450189
5028.3262863681
16649.76825118
29.3775421911
19640.166364642
1834.0256912332
370.5487144528
16.8900446406
3357.4630709601
966.2815304349
559.4058663929
1679.2926851228
|D(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
0.0148985358
0.0169740194
0.0038404509
0.0312458603
0.0011106517
0.000416826
0.0079464008
0.0099865811
0.0055647771
0.009195062
0.0023441816
0.0204458095
0.0138391651
0.014098913
0.0095899976
0.0179729297
0.0008580219
0.0063409865
0.002869076
0.0068392506
0.0022691361
0.0143775243
0.0012462327
0.0031751837
0.0027114329
0.0154668616
0.0080434088
0.0143053194
0.0006033736
0.0153078512
0.004723751
0.0021042459
0.0004477827
0.006249986
0.0033403255
0.0025423801
0.0043608783
0.5
0.05
D(t)
S(t)
7670
7786
7852
7807
8046
7897
7916
7988
8042
8052
8114
8104
8278
8311
8382
8416
8547
8491
8570
8543
8529
8612
8755
8700
8710
8781
8936
8816
9020
8983
9155
9066
9148
9178
9271
9306
9303
9397
7670
7728
7791.45
7802.18875
7927.17840625
7918.143774219
7922.597863848
7960.659962066
8007.374512123
8036.597424349
8082.593944853
8101.377356484
8197.834628387
8264.567398629
8334.594598784
8387.793333892
8480.597868099
8500.6601885
8549.949843988
8561.595925632
8559.954068313
8599.859287946
8691.615415564
8711.578093984
8726.269980844
8768.709174753
8867.736042339
8858.956075073
8955.492189564
8986.87294207
9088.466494771
9096.426608752
9140.646000524
9177.939546397
9243.087830674
9293.859777045
9318.049255805
9376.767763789
1160.2094849239
0.0036321015
2872.4000123595
0.0056469051
16930.395905946
0.0135130185
24202.720298682
0.0164836019
0.7643028605 9.135257736E-005
8.7736525895
0.0003081281
1102.5429463846
0.0034288065
28.2387337147
0.0005478929
11517.341522043
0.0111384409
34086.235882016
0.0186075974
0.3710510156
MSE
8204.3746582163
MAP
0.789%
Axis Title
385605.60893617
9378
9491
9629
9438
9570
9613
9684
9699
9635
9922
D(t
)
f(t)
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
9397.132823687
9463.337033043
9566.130711896
9523.599283524
9566.193587251
9609.085899433
9666.129908038
9702.598664639
9688.743076324
9823.971705258
G(t)
0
2.9
5.9275
6.1680625
12.1091421875
11.0519534766
10.7220602842
12.0890621809
13.8203365747
14.5904653573
16.1607681146
16.2919002904
20.3001688711
22.6217989396
24.9920690004
26.4024023058
29.7225089008
29.2394994758
30.2420072764
29.3122109948
27.7645075791
28.3715431818
31.5407724036
30.9618677044
30.1483686622
30.7629099246
34.1761078076
32.028304054
35.2536945758
35.0600474723
38.3867227337
36.8653922961
37.2330922699
37.2361149501
38.6317234164
39.2387345641
38.4862717739
39.4978835844
f(t)
7670
7730.9
7797.3775
7808.3568125
7939.287548438
7929.195727695
7933.319924132
7972.749024247
8021.194848698
8051.187889706
8098.754712968
8117.669256774
8218.134797258
8287.189197569
8359.586667785
8414.195736198
8510.320377
8529.899687976
8580.191851264
8590.908136627
8587.718575893
8628.230831128
8723.156187968
8742.539961688
8756.418349506
8799.472084678
8901.912150146
8890.984379127
8990.745884139
9021.932989542
9126.853217505
9133.292001048
9177.879092794
9215.175661347
9281.71955409
9333.098511609
9356.535527578
|D(t)-f(t)|
116
121.1
9.6225
237.6431875
42.2875484375
13.1957276953
54.6800758682
69.2509757532
30.8051513019
62.8121102937
5.2452870322
160.3307432257
92.8652027418
94.8108024313
56.4133322153
132.8042638019
19.3203769999
40.1003120243
37.1918512643
61.908136627
24.2814241074
126.7691688719
23.1561879677
32.5399616883
24.5816504936
136.5279153223
85.9121501465
129.0156208728
7.7458841394
133.067010458
60.8532175047
14.7079989515
0.1209072058
55.8243386529
24.2804459101
30.0985116091
40.4644724215
(D(t)-f(t))^2
|D(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
13456
0.0148985358
14665.21
0.0154228222
92.59250625
0.0012325477
56474.284565161
0.0295355689
1788.2367528538
0.0053548877
174.1272294088
0.0016669691
2989.9106969482
0.0068452774
4795.69764277
0.0086111634
948.9573467321
0.0038257764
3945.3611995457
0.0077412017
27.5130360506
0.0006472467
25705.947223309
0.0193682947
8623.9458802762
0.01117377
8989.0882576678
0.0113112387
3182.4640516307
0.0067031051
17636.972483958
0.0155381144
373.2769674171
0.0022753948
1608.0350244425
0.0046791496
1383.2338004652
0.0043534884
3832.6173806219
0.0072585457
589.5875566827
0.0028194872
16070.422176465
0.0144796309
536.2090411947
0.0026616308
1058.8491066738
0.0037359313
604.2575409919
0.0027994136
18639.871662243
0.0152784149
7380.8975427919
0.0097450261
16645.030429195
0.0143032839
59.9987211006
0.0008622825
17706.829272235
0.0145349001
3703.1140806781
0.0067122455
216.3252331577
0.001607783
0.0146185524 1.3173589654E-005
3116.3567860297
0.0060213934
589.540053591
0.0026091173
905.9204010833
0.0032353554
1637.3735283541
0.0043061054
38.5412424001
39.9243907479
43.0678551531
38.7878909769
38.9782116144
39.1739166428
40.0674212409
39.8874880089
37.2003341927
42.1017489298
9416.265647374
9435.674066087
9503.261423791
9609.198567049
9562.387174501
9605.171798865
9648.259816075
9706.197329279
9742.486152648
9725.943410517
9866.073454188
9908.175203118
9950.276952048
9992.378700978
10034.48044991
10076.58219884
10118.68394777
10160.7856967
10202.88744563
10244.98919456
10287.09094349
10329.19269242
Total
38.2656473737
55.3259339131
125.7385762086
171.1985670488
7.6128254987
7.8282011349
35.7401839247
7.1973292785
107.4861526482
196.0565894832
1464.2597689259
3060.9589633531
15810.189546968
29308.949359576
57.955112073
61.2807330091
1277.3607469723
51.8015487435
11553.273011107
38438.186279785
0.0040803633
0.005829305
0.0130583213
0.0181392845
0.0007954886
0.0008143349
0.0036906427
0.0007420692
0.011155802
0.0197597853
3160.7844580492 361238.28486704
0.3622336703
MAD
MSE
67.25073315 7685.9209546179
MAP
0.771%
= 0.5
D(t
)
f(t)
0.6
0.05
D(t)
S(t)
7670
7786
7852
7807
8046
7897
7916
7988
8042
8052
8114
8104
8278
8311
8382
8416
8547
8491
8570
8543
8529
8612
8755
8700
8710
8781
8936
8816
9020
8983
9155
9066
9148
9178
9271
9306
9303
9397
7670
7739.6
7808.432
7810.27184
7954.3096208
7925.275444496
7924.21351064
7966.742331778
8016.79159028
8043.567545972
8091.73090187
8105.664317173
8215.587753779
8281.229495808
8350.979307745
8400.209853288
8498.975775906
8506.322871677
8556.202023834
8560.367623982
8553.112835322
8599.287534798
8703.938788545
8714.331126387
8724.058127732
8770.127184439
8881.880991588
8856.2060847
8967.129939404
8990.885583103
9103.35127309
9096.487010892
9142.026695686
9178.421768733
9248.76714489
9298.572281006
9316.917167022
9380.237606418
G(t)
0
3.48
6.7476
6.502212
13.37899044
11.2583321028
10.6423188048
12.2366439215
14.1272746505
14.7597087026
16.4298910624
16.3050672744
20.985985741
23.2187735554
25.5453254745
26.7295864779
30.3314032849
29.1821879092
30.2170361216
28.9144643229
27.1060016738
28.0594365639
31.889027423
30.814192944
29.7598333641
30.5752945312
34.6342201621
31.6187638096
35.5840183543
34.9925996215
38.8662541398
36.5797283229
37.0277261465
36.9960934915
38.6635576248
39.2206365493
38.1768490227
39.4340285413
f(t)
7670
7743.08
7815.1796
7816.774052
7967.68861124
7936.533776599
7934.855829444
7978.978975699
8030.91886493
8058.327254675
8108.160792932
8121.969384447
8236.57373952
8304.448269363
8376.52463322
8426.939439766
8529.307179191
8535.505059586
8586.419059956
8589.282088305
8580.218836996
8627.346971362
8735.827815968
8745.145319331
8753.817961097
8800.70247897
8916.51521175
8887.82484851
9002.713957758
9025.878182725
9142.21752723
9133.066739215
9179.054421832
9215.417862224
9287.430702515
9337.792917555
9355.094016045
9378
9491
9629
9438
9570
9613
9684
9699
9635
9922
9394.668653984
9467.741013391
9580.467726752
9512.414380293
9562.160610301
9608.094283995
9669.214924953
9703.106733588
9678.140255034
9839.059455961
38.1838794926
39.9283034883
43.5682239819
37.9871454599
38.5750996873
38.9430283876
40.0519090162
39.7439039971
36.5083848695
42.7289256724
9419.671634959
9432.852533476
9507.669316879
9624.035950733
9550.401525753
9600.735709989
9647.037312383
9709.266833969
9742.850637585
9714.648639903
9881.788381634
9924.517307306
9967.246232979
10009.97515865
10052.70408432
10095.43301
10138.16193567
10180.89086134
10223.61978701
10266.34871269
10309.07763836
10351.80656403
Total
Axis Title
= 0.6
10000
9500
D(t
)
9000
f(t)
8500
8000
7500
|D(t)-f(t)|
116
108.92
8.1796
229.225948
70.68861124
20.5337765988
53.1441705556
63.0210243008
21.0811350698
55.6727453253
4.1607929323
156.0306155527
74.4262604801
77.5517306366
39.4753667802
120.0605602342
38.3071791913
34.4949404143
43.4190599559
60.2820883053
31.7811630041
127.6530286377
35.8278159679
35.1453193312
27.1820389035
135.2975210302
100.51521175
132.1751514904
19.7139577581
129.1218172752
76.2175272297
14.9332607852
1.0544218324
55.5821377756
18.5692974855
34.7929175551
41.9059839553
(D(t)-f(t))^2
13456
11863.5664
66.90585616
52544.535236499
4996.8797590398
421.6359814094
2824.3028640474
3971.6495039159
444.41425583
3099.4545720543
17.3121978252
24345.552989749
5539.2682490488
6014.2709247377
1558.3045824283
14414.538123742
1467.4399775911
1189.9009141869
1885.2147674533
3633.9301704477
1010.0423218933
16295.295720387
1283.6323970325
1235.1934708902
738.8632389497
18305.419196924
10103.307793144
17470.27067152
388.6401304886
16672.443696453
5809.1114570121
223.002277679
1.1118054006
3089.374039701
344.8188091036
1210.5471119985
1756.11149126
|D(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
0.0148985358
0.0138716251
0.0010477264
0.0284894293
0.0089513247
0.0025939586
0.0066530008
0.0078364865
0.0026181241
0.0068613194
0.0005134246
0.0188488301
0.0089551511
0.009252175
0.0046905141
0.0140470996
0.0045115039
0.0040250806
0.0050824137
0.0070678964
0.0036903348
0.0145805858
0.0041181398
0.0040350539
0.0030955516
0.0151407253
0.0114014532
0.0146535645
0.0021945851
0.0141039669
0.0084069631
0.0016324072
0.0001148858
0.0059952689
0.0019954113
0.0037399675
0.0044595066
41.6716349592
58.1474665238
121.3306831212
186.0359507334
19.5984742467
12.2642900114
36.9626876169
10.2668339694
107.8506375848
207.3513600965
1736.5251601742
3381.127863132
14721.134666667
34609.374965281
384.1001928002
150.4128094836
1366.2402758656
105.4078797549
11631.760027453
42994.586533888
0.0044435525
0.0061265901
0.0126005487
0.0197113743
0.0020479074
0.0012758026
0.0038168822
0.0010585456
0.0111936313
0.0208981415
3213.6241962036
360772.9333305
0.367346967
MAD
MSE
68.3749828979 7676.0198580958
MAP
0.782%
= 0.6
D(t
)
f(t)
0.7
0.05
D(t)
S(t)
7670
7786
7852
7807
8046
7897
7916
7988
8042
8052
8114
8104
8278
8311
8382
8416
8547
8491
8570
8543
8529
8612
8755
8700
8710
8781
8936
8816
9020
8983
9155
9066
9148
9178
9271
9306
9303
9397
7670
7751.2
7822.978
7814.02717
7978.39597005
7925.772751113
7922.278739143
7971.410779682
8024.531014555
8048.078499507
8098.67999751
8107.396646998
8231.6927592
8293.702346288
8362.610640295
8407.761756086
8513.295429361
8506.935191316
8559.769388206
8557.077718686
8545.977497676
8600.153218954
8716.920572674
8714.783558747
8720.625030012
8771.705595342
8895.855069103
8850.504983813
8978.492283793
8992.441243854
9116.695488337
9093.012419591
9142.362064281
9178.364285438
9254.252201795
9302.104749639
9314.496847755
9383.612087518
G(t)
0
4.06
7.4459
6.6260635
14.5132003275
11.1563793643
10.4238597976
12.3592688346
14.3973171366
14.8548255273
16.6421591511
16.245883668
21.6483950946
23.6664546943
25.9285466599
26.8896751165
30.8218750244
28.9627693709
30.1563407469
28.5139402336
26.5332321714
27.9153566267
32.3579564814
30.6332079609
29.3936211262
30.4779683363
35.1615436076
31.1359621627
35.9785290536
34.8770506039
39.3459102979
36.1944613457
36.8522205129
36.8097205451
38.7636303357
39.2180762111
37.8767773064
39.4387004292
f(t)
7670
7755.26
7830.4239
7820.6532335
7992.909170378
7936.929130478
7932.702598941
7983.770048517
8038.928331692
8062.933325035
8115.322156662
8123.642530666
8253.341154295
8317.368800983
8388.539186955
8434.651431203
8544.117304385
8535.897960687
8589.925728953
8585.591658919
8572.510729847
8628.068575581
8749.278529156
8745.416766708
8750.018651138
8802.183563678
8931.016612711
8881.640945976
9014.470812846
9027.318294458
9156.041398635
9129.206880936
9179.214284794
9215.174005983
9293.015832131
9341.32282585
9352.373625061
|D(t)-f(t)|
116
96.74
23.4239
225.3467665
95.9091703775
20.9291304775
55.2974010592
58.2299514831
13.0716683084
51.0666749652
11.3221566616
154.3574693336
57.6588457054
64.6311990173
27.4608130452
112.348568797
53.1173043853
34.1020393135
46.9257289529
56.5916589194
39.4892701528
126.9314244191
49.2785291557
35.4167667076
30.9813488615
133.8164363221
115.016612711
138.359054024
31.4708128464
127.6817055422
90.0413986353
18.7931190637
1.2142847938
55.8259940167
12.9841678693
38.3228258503
44.6263749385
(D(t)-f(t))^2
13456
9358.6276
548.67909121
50781.165172
9198.5689625
438.028502546
3057.8025639
3390.72724972
170.868512364
2607.805292
128.191231469
23826.2283391
3324.54248808
4177.19188641
754.096253106
12622.2009107
2821.44802516
1162.94908534
2202.02403776
3202.61585925
1559.4024572
16111.5865051
2428.37343575
1254.34736402
959.84397728
17906.83863
13228.8211995
19143.2278304
990.412061211
16302.6179302
8107.4534682
353.181324144
1.4744875604
3116.54160796
168.588615258
1468.63898116
1991.51334015
9378
9491
9629
9438
9570
9613
9684
9699
9635
9922
9391.515236384
9472.513147771
9594.059561015
9498.046400352
9559.540828141
9608.455227493
9672.988614336
9703.234028887
9667.359462242
9856.36451107
37.8619228511
40.0187222778
44.0951068261
37.0896934517
38.3099301686
38.8401536277
40.1248152885
39.6308452516
35.8555746568
43.5130483653
9423.050787948
9429.377159235
9512.531870048
9638.154667841
9535.136093804
9597.85075831
9647.295381121
9713.113429625
9742.864874139
9703.215036898
9899.877559435
9943.3906078
9986.903656166
10030.41670453
10073.9297529
10117.44280126
10160.95584963
10204.46889799
10247.98194636
10291.49499472
10335.00804309
10378.52109145
Total
45.0507879477
61.6228407646
116.4681299516
200.1546678407
34.8639061961
15.1492416903
36.7046188794
14.1134296247
107.864874139
218.7849631015
2029.57349471
3797.3745039
13564.8252944
40061.8910584
1215.49195525
229.49952379
1347.22904708
199.188895771
11634.831073
47866.8600793
3315.5580333476 374269.389203
MAD
MSE
70.5437879436 7963.17849369
Axis Title
= 0.7
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
D(t
)
f(t)
|D(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
0.0148985358
0.0123204279
0.0030003715
0.0280073038
0.0121450133
0.0026439023
0.006922559
0.0072407301
0.0016234064
0.0062936499
0.0013971072
0.0186467105
0.0069376544
0.0077107133
0.0032629293
0.0131447957
0.0062557183
0.0039792345
0.0054928865
0.0066352045
0.0045853774
0.0144981638
0.0056641988
0.0040662189
0.0035282256
0.0149749817
0.013046349
0.0153391412
0.0035033745
0.0139466636
0.0099317669
0.0020543418
0.0001323039
0.006021572
0.0013952469
0.0041194051
0.0047490023
0.8
0.05
D(t)
S(t)
7670
7786
7852
7807
8046
7897
7916
7988
8042
8052
8114
8104
8278
8311
8382
8416
8547
8491
8570
8543
8529
8612
8755
8700
8710
8781
8936
8816
9020
8983
9155
9066
9148
9178
9271
9306
9303
9397
7670
7762.8
7835.088
7814.22208
8000.9600128
7920.909198848
7919.142668104
7976.263655231
8031.357306447
8050.801744432
8104.338562252
8107.432383326
8247.113852208
8302.685591896
8370.932516157
8412.224600363
8525.43403319
8504.138558428
8562.553921138
8552.934836835
8539.413626501
8602.692839374
8730.120968374
8712.601755439
8716.593842634
8773.928506368
8909.67829886
8841.881125404
8990.486445696
8991.788051927
9129.296851096
9086.626736886
9142.867644569
9178.321120322
9259.79897066
9304.542581901
9311.149600874
9387.345020633
G(t)
0
4.64
8.0224
6.577984
15.58598144
10.8041416704
10.1756080497
12.5228770035
14.6514157142
14.8910668277
16.8233543773
16.1368777122
22.3141072706
23.9769888915
26.19048566
26.9455655873
31.2587589493
28.6310472637
30.120263036
28.1332956691
26.0505703689
27.9120024941
32.8878088194
30.3674577317
29.0486892049
30.4629879313
35.7273281593
30.5511030786
36.4538139393
34.6962035539
39.8368333346
35.7114859574
36.7379570436
36.6737329791
38.9139388471
39.2054224668
37.5755022921
39.5064981654
0.0048038801
0.0064927659
0.0120955582
0.0212073181
0.0036430414
0.001575912
0.0037902333
0.0014551428
0.0111951089
0.0220504901
9378
9491
9629
9438
9570
9613
9684
9699
9635
9922
9387.77030376
9477.864548235
9606.8088152
9480.685315985
9559.353203503
9609.912652866
9676.948036624
9702.637191911
9656.429535292
9875.930822556
37.5524374135
40.1795277666
44.6177647265
36.0807015294
38.2100608288
38.8275302556
40.2379229307
39.5104845485
35.2245774901
44.4384129788
0.3784246382
MAP
0.805%
Axis Title
=0
D(t
)
f(t)
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
f(t)
7670
7767.44
7843.1104
7820.800064
8016.54599424
7931.713340518
7929.318276153
7988.786532234
8046.008722161
8065.69281126
8121.161916629
8123.569261038
8269.427959478
8326.662580787
8397.123001817
8439.170165951
8556.692792139
8532.769605692
8592.674184174
8581.068132504
8565.46419687
8630.604841868
8763.008777193
8742.96921317
8745.642531839
8804.391494299
8945.405627019
8872.432228482
9026.940259636
9026.484255481
9169.133684431
9122.338222844
9179.605601612
9214.994853302
9298.712909507
9343.748004368
9348.725103166
|D(t)-f(t)|
116
84.56
36.1104
225.199936
119.54599424
15.7133405184
58.6817238467
53.2134677658
5.991277839
48.3071887401
17.1619166293
154.430738962
41.5720405218
55.3374192129
18.8769981826
107.8298340492
65.6927921394
37.2303943084
49.6741841744
52.0681325039
46.5358031303
124.3951581319
63.008777193
32.9692131703
35.3574681611
131.6085057009
129.4056270192
147.5677715176
43.9402596358
128.515744519
103.1336844308
25.6617771565
1.6056016123
56.0051466984
7.2870904926
40.7480043683
48.2748968343
(D(t)-f(t))^2
13456
7150.3936
1303.96098816
50715.0111744
14291.2447388
246.909070247
3443.54471362
2831.67315166
35.8954101441
2333.58448397
294.531382391
23848.8531363
1728.23455314
3062.22996514
356.341060384
11627.2731111
4315.54293908
1386.10226036
2467.52457339
2711.09042245
2165.58097298
15474.1553667
3970.10600336
1086.96901707
1250.15055476
17320.7987728
16745.8163042
21776.2471907
1930.74641686
16516.2965893
10636.5568643
658.526806828
2.5779565376
3136.57645671
53.1016878473
1660.39986
2330.46566436
|D(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
0.0148985358
0.0107692308
0.0046253875
0.0279890549
0.015138153
0.0019850102
0.0073462348
0.0066169445
0.0007440733
0.0059535604
0.0021177094
0.0186555616
0.0050020504
0.006601935
0.0022429893
0.0126161032
0.0077367556
0.00434427
0.0058146066
0.0061048344
0.0054036
0.0142084704
0.0072423882
0.0037852139
0.0040265879
0.014727899
0.0146784967
0.0163600634
0.0048914906
0.0140377656
0.0113758752
0.002805179
0.0001749402
0.006040896
0.0007830529
0.0043800929
0.0051372669
9426.851518799
9425.322741173
9518.044076001
9651.426579927
9516.766017515
9597.563264332
9648.740183122
9717.185959555
9742.14767646
9691.654112782
9920.369235535
9964.807648514
10009.24606149
10053.68447447
10098.12288745
10142.56130043
10186.99971341
10231.43812639
10275.87653937
10320.31495234
10364.75336532
10409.1917783
Total
48.8515187986
65.6772588268
110.9559239988
213.4265799267
53.2339824852
15.4367356682
35.2598168781
18.1859595551
107.1476764595
230.345887218
2386.47088893
4313.502327
12311.2170704
45550.9050192
2833.85689124
238.29280809
1243.25468627
330.729124939
11480.6245707
53059.2277582
0.0052091617
0.0069199514
0.0115230994
0.0226135389
0.0055625896
0.0016058188
0.0036410385
0.0018750345
0.0111206722
0.023215671
3427.7396492209 398069.094365
0.3906488553
MAD
MSE
72.9306308345 8469.55519926
MAP
0.831%
Axis Title
= 0.8
D(t
)
f(t)
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
0.9
0.05
D(t)
S(t)
7670
7786
7852
7807
8046
7897
7916
7988
8042
8052
8114
8104
8278
8311
8382
8416
8547
8491
8570
8543
8529
8612
8755
8700
8710
8781
8936
8816
9020
8983
9155
9066
9148
9178
9271
9306
9303
9397
7670
7774.4
7844.762
7811.62391
8023.20202505
7911.285745428
7916.551258921
7981.853003619
8037.259792926
8052.013781175
8109.288559847
8106.228052521
8262.421739425
8308.442129841
8377.05927304
8414.743320073
8536.468275373
8498.714698511
8565.692179392
8548.283779408
8533.705169336
8606.735575709
8742.975515439
8707.640611217
8712.76329329
8777.0512133
8923.157700702
8830.346252911
9004.019526751
8988.805975431
9141.823351404
9077.618038189
9144.474695149
9178.318999563
9265.389075024
9305.848574194
9307.201338272
9391.747554458
G(t)
0
5.22
8.4771
6.3963405
16.6554292275
10.226843785
9.9787772704
12.7449256418
14.8780188251
14.8718172963
16.9919653651
15.9893417305
22.9995589892
24.1506005605
26.3739276924
26.9394336595
31.6787097415
28.2070954113
30.1456146848
27.7679139513
25.6505877502
28.0195786813
33.4305967338
29.992321686
28.7488397053
30.5257937205
36.3048284046
29.8490145948
37.0402275571
34.4275386132
40.3570304813
35.1289132964
36.7153004796
36.5717506763
39.0966669156
39.1648085283
37.2742063058
39.6378067998
f(t)
7670
7779.62
7853.2391
7818.0202505
8039.857454278
7921.512589213
7926.530036192
7994.597929261
8052.137811751
8066.885598471
8126.280525212
8122.217394252
8285.421298414
8332.592730402
8403.433200733
8441.682753733
8568.146985115
8526.921793923
8595.837794077
8576.051693359
8559.355757086
8634.75515439
8776.406112173
8737.632932903
8741.512132996
8807.57700702
8959.462529107
8860.195267506
9041.059754308
9023.233514044
9182.180381886
9112.746951485
9181.189995628
9214.890750239
9304.485741939
9345.013382722
9344.475544578
|D(t)-f(t)|
116
72.38
46.2391
227.9797495
142.8574542775
5.5125892128
61.4699638083
47.402070739
0.1378117512
47.1144015286
22.2805252122
155.7826057483
25.5787015857
49.407269598
12.5667992674
105.3172462673
77.1469851148
43.0782060772
52.8377940771
47.051693359
52.6442429139
120.2448456101
76.4061121728
27.6329329033
39.4878670043
128.4229929799
143.4625291066
159.8047324945
58.0597543076
131.766485956
116.1803818857
35.253048515
3.1899956281
56.1092497609
1.5142580605
42.0133827222
52.524455422
(D(t)-f(t))^2
13456
5238.8644
2138.05436881
51974.76618208
20408.25224265
30.3886398287
3778.556450592
2246.956310347
0.0189920788
2219.7668314
496.4218037311
24268.22025372
654.2699748078
2441.078289133
157.9244438261
11091.72236132
5951.657312299
1855.731838829
2791.832482933
2213.861847954
2771.416311979
14458.82289579
5837.893977355
763.5789808363
1559.291640552
16492.46512591
20581.49725767
25537.55252764
3370.935070263
17362.40682119
13497.8811351
1242.777429603
10.1760721072
3148.247908728
2.2929774739
1765.124327764
2758.818417377
9378
9491
9629
9438
9570
9613
9684
9699
9635
9922
9383.338536126
9483.957400167
9618.536203564
9460.564954743
9562.552406897
9611.786293802
9680.664299272
9701.202206351
9645.556897774
9897.817306516
37.2354655432
40.4046354681
45.1133438645
34.9591142302
38.3105311265
38.8566989154
40.3577642431
39.3667713849
34.6161673868
45.4983794546
9431.385361258
9420.574001669
9524.362035635
9663.649547428
9495.524068973
9600.862938024
9650.642992718
9721.022063515
9740.568977736
9680.17306516
9943.315685971
9988.814065425
10034.31244488
10079.81082433
10125.30920379
10170.80758324
10216.3059627
10261.80434215
10307.30272161
10352.80110106
10398.29948052
10443.79785997
Total
53.3853612576
70.4259983311
104.637964365
225.649547428
74.475931027
12.1370619762
33.3570072822
22.0220635149
105.5689777364
241.8269348396
2849.996796602
4959.821240927
10949.10358646
50917.71825446
5546.664302332
147.3082734151
1112.689934827
484.9712814528
11144.80906031
58480.26641391
3546.3450823256 431168.8730484
MAD
75.4541506878
MSE
9173.80580954
Axis Title
= 0.9
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
D
)
f(
|D(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
0.0148985358
0.0092180336
0.0059227744
0.0283345451
0.0180900917
0.0006963857
0.0076952884
0.0058943137
1.71152199658E-005
0.0058065568
0.0027493244
0.01881887
0.0030776924
0.0058944488
0.0014932033
0.0123221301
0.0090857361
0.0050266285
0.0061849226
0.0055166718
0.006112894
0.0137344198
0.0087823117
0.0031725526
0.004496967
0.0143714182
0.0162729729
0.0177167109
0.0064632923
0.0143928439
0.012814955
0.0038536345
0.0003475698
0.0060521249
0.0001627185
0.0045161112
0.0055894919
0.0056926169
0.0074202927
0.0108669607
0.0239086191
0.0077822289
0.0012625676
0.0034445485
0.0022705499
0.0109568218
0.0243728013
0.4035742649
MAP
0.859%
D(t
)
f(t)
Linear Regression
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
Data Aktual
7670
7786
7852
7807
8046
7897
7916
7988
8042
8052
8114
8104
8278
8311
8382
8416
8547
8491
8570
8543
8529
8612
8755
8700
8710
8781
8936
8816
9020
8983
9155
9066
9148
9178
9271
9306
9303
9397
9378
9491
9629
i*D(i)
7670
15572
23556
31228
40230
47382
55412
63904
72378
80520
89254
97248
107614
116354
125730
134656
145299
152838
162830
170860
179109
189464
201365
208800
217750
228306
241272
246848
261580
269490
283805
290112
301884
312052
324485
335016
344211
357086
365742
379640
394789
Hasil Peramalan
7709.9183673469
7754.6532240556
7799.3880807642
7844.1229374729
7888.8577941815
7933.5926508902
7978.3275075988
8023.0623643074
8067.7972210161
8112.5320777247
8157.2669344334
8202.001791142
8246.7366478506
8291.4715045593
8336.2063612679
8380.9412179766
8425.6760746852
8470.4109313938
8515.1457881025
8559.8806448111
8604.6155015198
8649.3503582284
8694.085214937
8738.8200716457
8783.5549283543
8828.289785063
8873.0246417716
8917.7594984803
8962.4943551889
9007.2292118975
9051.9640686062
9096.6989253148
9141.4337820235
9186.1686387321
9230.9034954407
9275.6383521494
9320.373208858
9365.1080655667
9409.8429222753
9454.5777789839
9499.3126356926
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
9438
9570
9613
9684
9699
9635
9922
396396
411510
422972
435780
446154
452845
476256
9544.0474924012
9588.7823491099
9633.5172058185
9678.2520625271
9722.9869192358
9767.7217759444
9812.4566326531
9857.1914893617
9901.9263460704
9946.661202779
9991.3960594876
10036.1309161963
10080.8657729049
10125.6006296135
10170.3354863222
10215.0703430308
10259.8051997395
10304.5400564481
10349.2749131568
Total
Kesimpulan
Kesimpula
Dari tabel ringkasan dan tabel nilai minimal dapat dilihat bahwa
=51.8442204; MSE = 3998.097917
|D(t)-F(i)|
39.92
31.35
52.61
37.12
157.14
36.59
62.33
35.06
25.80
60.53
43.27
98.00
31.26
19.53
45.79
35.06
121.32
20.59
54.85
16.88
75.62
37.35
60.91
38.82
73.55
47.29
62.98
101.76
57.51
24.23
103.04
30.70
6.57
8.17
40.10
30.36
17.37
31.89
31.84
36.42
129.69
(D(i)-F(i))^2
1593.4760516452
982.6203621097
2768.0140456722
1378.112486614
24693.6728495032
1339.0220991679
3884.7182034765
1229.3693908266
665.4966121518
3664.13243367
1872.0276152596
9604.3510670381
977.3971876155
381.3621341786
2097.057348325
1229.1181969676
14719.494853793
423.9097460694
3008.9845628986
284.956169239
5717.7040700843
1395.0492597896
3710.6110392668
1506.9979625757
5410.3274852092
2236.3237713011
3965.895743995
10354.9955309507
3306.8991851422
587.0547091752
10616.4031581951
942.424015484
43.1152185156
66.7266587354
1607.7296778717
921.8296602057
301.8283860241
1017.095481901
1013.9716990304
1326.5781837432
16818.8124610068
|(D(i)-F(i))/D(i)|
0.0052045
0.0040260
0.0067004
0.0047551
0.0195305
0.0046337
0.0078736
0.0043894
0.0032078
0.0075176
0.0053324
0.0120930
0.0037767
0.0023497
0.0054633
0.0041657
0.0141949
0.0024248
0.0064007
0.0019760
0.0088657
0.0043370
0.0069577
0.0044621
0.0084449
0.0053855
0.0070474
0.0115426
0.0063753
0.0026972
0.0112546
0.0033862
0.0007178
0.0008900
0.0043249
0.0032626
0.0018675
0.0033938
0.0033955
0.0038376
0.0134684
n
sigma [i*D(i)]
sigma D(i)
Rata-rata D(i)
Sxy
19780680
Fungsi F(t)
Fungsi F(t)= 7665.183511 +
Visualisasi
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
7000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
106.05
18.78
20.52
5.75
23.99
132.72
109.54
11246.070644586
352.7766380845
420.9557345986
33.0387851919
575.3722944238
17615.0698098411
11999.7493297062
2488.52
191908.70
MAD
51.8442204009
MSE
3998.0979168928
MAD
51.8442204009
Nilai Minimal
MSE
3998.0979168928
0.0112362
0.0019626
0.0021343
0.0005935
0.0024731
0.0137750
0.0110405
0.29
MAP
0.594%
MAP
0.594%
Kesimpulan
dan tabel nilai minimal dapat dilihat bahwa nilai error minimum model regresi linier ialah :MAD
=51.8442204; MSE = 3998.097917 dan MAPE = 0.594% .
48
10715254
420537
8761.1875
Sxx
442176
b
44.7348567086
a
7665.1835106383
Fungsi F(t)
Fungsi F(t)= 7665.183511 + 44.73485671t
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 4
3 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Data Aktual
Hasil
Peramalan
Moving Average With Linear Trend
Periode (t)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
x(i)
a
7670
7786
7852
7807
8046
7897
7916
7988
8042
8052
8114
8104
8278
8311
8382
8416
8547
8491
8570
8543
8529
8612
8755
8700
8710
8781
8936
8816
9020
8983
9155
9066
9148
9178
9271
9306
9303
9397
F(t)
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
F'(t)
7670
7728
7819
7830
7927
7972
7907
7952
8015
8047
8083
8109
8191
8295
8347
8399
8482
8519
8531
8557
8536
8571
8684
8728
8705
8746
8859
8876
8918
9002
9069
9111
9107
9163
9225
9289
9305
9350
116
66
-45
239
-149
19
72
54
10
62
-10
174
33
71
34
131
-56
79
-27
-14
83
143
-55
10
71
155
-120
204
-37
172
-89
82
30
93
35
-3
94
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
9378
9491
9629
9438
9570
9613
9684
9699
9635
9922
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
9388
9435
9560
9534
9504
9592
9649
9692
9667
9779
-19
113
138
-191
132
43
71
15
-64
287
Visualisasi
Moving Average WLT dengan
Jumlah Dongkrak
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
Ringkasan
Kesimpulan
2
f(t+h)
|x(i)-f(t+h)|
7767
7841
7815
8006
7922
7913
7976
8033
8050
8104
8106
8249
8306
8370
8410
8525
8500
8557
8548
8531
8598
8731
8709
8708
8769
8910
8836
8986
8989
9126
9081
9134
9173
9256
9300
9304
[x(i)-f(t+h)]^2
85
34
232
109
6
75
66
19
64
0
172
62
77
46
137
34
70
14
19
81
157
31
1
73
167
94
184
3
166
60
67
44
98
51
3
94
7282
1156
53592
11917
34
5650
4356
361
4053
0
29699
3844
5852
2101
18678
1167
4853
191
342
6507
24597
971
1
5280
27833
8867
33856
9
27501
3640
4511
1907
9604
2550
8
8742
|(x(i)-f(t+h))/x(i)|
0.0109
0.0044
0.0288
0.0138
0.0007
0.0094
0.0082
0.0024
0.0078
0.0000
0.0208
0.0075
0.0091
0.0054
0.0160
0.0040
0.0081
0.0016
0.0022
0.0094
0.0179
0.0036
0.0001
0.0083
0.0187
0.0107
0.0204
0.0003
0.0181
0.0067
0.0073
0.0048
0.0106
0.0054
0.0003
0.0099
9381
9381
9472
9606
9470
9548
9606
9672
9697
9646
9874
9850
9836
9826
9820
9814
9810
9807
9805
9802
9801
9799
Total
3
110
157
168
100
65
78
27
62
276
11
12063
24597
28224
10033
4225
6110
720
3782
76360
0.0004
0.0116
0.0163
0.0178
0.0105
0.0068
0.0081
0.0028
0.0064
0.0279
3737.500
487641.361
0.422
MAD
81.25
MSE
10600.8991545894
erage WLT dengan m=2
x(i
)
MAP
0.917%
Ringkasan
m
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
MAD
MSE
81.2500
90.437037037
162.1511363636
145.4604651163
418.7987528345
136.4547038328
55.0756944444
77.2632478632
195.3832535885
10600.8991545894
12621.8098765432
32224.2799431818
26043.7670284238
180348.554003347
23132.5837481333
5439.5527488426
9262.6085090218
43380.2995345803
MAD
55.0756944444
Nilai Minimal
MSE
5439.5527488426
MAP
0.917%
1.017%
1.832%
1.655%
4.721%
1.531%
0.613%
0.859%
2.179%
MAP
0.613%
Kesimpulan
Dari tabel ringkasan dan tabel nilai minimal dapat dilihat bahwa nilai minimum MAD =81.25 yang berasal dari
parameter m = 2; MSE = 10600.89915 yang berasal dari parameter m = 2 dan MAPE = 0.917% yang berasal dari
parameter m = 2. Dengan demikian model terbaik dihasilkan dari parameter m = 2 yang menghasilkan error
minimum (MAD, MSE dan MAPE). Selain itu dikarenakan parameter yang digunakan adalah MAPE, oleh
karenanya digunakan MAPE dengan nilai paling rendah yaitu pada model n=2
3
a
F(t)
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
F'(t)
7786
7769
7815
7902
7917
7953
7934
7982
8027
8069
8090
8165
8231
8324
8370
8448
8485
8536
8535
8547
8561
8632
8689
8722
8730
8809
8844
8924
8940
9053
9068
9123
9131
9199
9252
9293
9335
f(t+h)
66
-14.5
72
20
-90
20.5
38
7
11
1
57
78.5
27
27.5
57.5
12.5
-13.5
1
-45.5
9.5
88
19
-47.5
15.5
88
-7.5
17
58.5
42.5
16.5
-28.5
31
36.5
39
-9
20.5
|x(i)-f(t+h)|
7813
7805
7950
7930
7893
7947
8007
8032
8077
8091
8203
8283
8342
8388
8487
8493
8527
8535
8517
8568
8691
8702
8690
8741
8868
8839
8935
8979
9081
9079
9104
9151
9223
9278
9287
Miyahana:
6
harusnya M8+N8*(($L$4-1)/
(2+1))
241
jangan lupa dikurungin
53
buat semua iterasi ya
14
semuanya dibenerin
95
95
45
82
27
187
108
99
74
159
4
77
16
6
95
187
9
8
91
195
52
181
48
176
15
69
74
120
83
25
110
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
9359
9422
9499
9519
9546
9540
9622
9665
9673
9752
12.5
22
100.5
-51.5
-54.5
62.5
32
18
-49.5
86.5
9349
9368
9437
9566
9485
9509
9582
9644
9677
9640
9810
9795
9787
9781
9777
9774
9771
9769
9768
9766
9765
9764
Total
29
123
192
128
85
104
102
55
42
282
4069.667
MAD
90.437037037
Moving Average WLT dengan m=3
Jumlah Dongkrak
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
D =81.25 yang berasal dari

E = 0.917% yang berasal dari
2 yang menghasilkan error
akan adalah MAPE, oleh
model n=2
[x(i)-f(t+h)]^2
a:
M8+N8*(($L$4-1)/
pa dikurungin
ua iterasi ya
a dibenerin
40
57920
2774
196
9025
8962
1995
6724
747
35094
11592
9735
5525
25281
19
5929
256
40
9025
35094
87
69
8281
38155
2669
32640
2272
31093
225
4761
5476
14320
6834
642
12027
|(x(i)-f(t+h))/x(i)|
0.0008
0.0299
0.0067
0.0018
0.0119
0.0118
0.0055
0.0101
0.0034
0.0226
0.0130
0.0118
0.0088
0.0186
0.0005
0.0090
0.0019
0.0007
0.0110
0.0214
0.0011
0.0010
0.0104
0.0219
0.0059
0.0200
0.0053
0.0193
0.0017
0.0075
0.0081
0.0129
0.0089
0.0027
0.0117
F(t)
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
7852
7779
7873
7901
7917
7962
7961
8000
8049
8078
8137
8202
8269
8347
8414
8459
8506
8538
8533
8564
8610
8649
8694
8737
8782
8811
8888
8939
8994
9056
9088
9137
9166
9226
9265
9319
841
15211
36992
16469
7225
10747
10404
3062
1792
79712
0.0031
0.0130
0.0200
0.0136
0.0089
0.0108
0.0105
0.0057
0.0044
0.0285
567981.444
0.458
MSE
12621.8098765432
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
9346
9392
9474
9484
9532
9563
9576
9642
9658
9735
MAP
1.017%
ngan m=3
Movin
x(i)
F (t
)
Jumlah dongkrak
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
4
F'(t)
-45
-19.2
-55.3
-74.9
-108.2
-42
-46.5
-53.9
-67.9
-25.9
-16.2
-6
-44.2
-18.5
-46.9
-52.1
-86
-84
-81.5
-20.8
-27.1
-68.8
-83.9
-14.8
-45.4
-33
-58.2
5.3
-61.7
-52.1
-77.6
-28.2
-36
-51.7
-55.2
f(t+h)
|x(i)-f(t+h)|
7734
7854
7845
7842
7854
7919
7953
7995
8010
8111
8186
8263
8303
8396
8412
8454
8452
8449
8482
8589
8622
8625
8653
8767
8765
8855
8881
8999
8994
9036
9059
9138
9190
9213
[x(i)-f(t+h)]^2
312
43
71
146
188
133
161
109
268
200
196
153
244
96
158
89
77
163
273
111
88
156
283
49
255
128
274
67
154
142
212
168
113
184
97500
1888
5013
21433
35513
17756
25921
11859
71770
39960
38593
23486
59756
9120
24932
7939
5968
26488
74529
12332
7762
24196
80316
2406
64847
16320
75323
4516
23624
20192
44880
28375
12826
33930
-61.7
-38.2
-11.8
-60.9
-88.1
-84.3
-14.6
-46.9
-84.6
-27.7
9264
9284
9354
9462
9423
9444
9478
9562
9595
9573
9707
9714
9718
9721
9723
9725
9726
9727
9727
9728
9729
9729
Total
114
207
275
24
147
169
206
137
40
349
12985
42725
75598
574
21580
28595
42354
18865
1632
121696
7134.650
1417868.318
MAD
162.1511363636
MSE
32224.2799431818
Moving Average WLT dengan m= 4
x(i
)
5
|(x(i)-f(t+h))/x(i)|
0.0388
0.0055
0.0089
0.0183
0.0234
0.0165
0.0198
0.0134
0.0324
0.0241
0.0234
0.0182
0.0286
0.0112
0.0184
0.0104
0.0091
0.0189
0.0312
0.0128
0.0101
0.0177
0.0317
0.0056
0.0282
0.0142
0.0300
0.0074
0.0168
0.0155
0.0229
0.0181
0.0122
0.0196
F(t)
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
7807
7832.20
7877.60
7903.60
7930.80
7977.80
7979.00
8022.40
8060.00
8118.00
8171.80
8237.80
8298.20
8386.80
8429.40
8481.20
8513.40
8536.00
8549.00
8601.80
8627.80
8661.20
8711.60
8776.40
8788.60
8852.60
8907.20
8982.00
9008.00
9074.40
9106.00
9163.60
9193.80
9241.20
9291.00
F'(t)
239
203.3
183.5
184.9
170
205.3
207.7
192.1
214.1
229.9
236
234.5
226
214.2
206.8
189.4
163.3
181.8
205.6
215.7
206.7
191
206
207.5
227.2
210.5
222.2
225.2
195.6
200
196.1
222
205.5
208.7
0.0122
0.0218
0.0286
0.0025
0.0154
0.0176
0.0213
0.0142
0.0042
0.0352
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
9331.00
9375.00
9439.60
9466.60
9501.20
9548.20
9586.80
9600.80
9640.20
9710.60
192.2
206.2
236.3
195
194.8
180.2
190.2
225.3
183.3
218.6
0.806
MAP
1.832%
Moving Average denga
=4
x(i
)
Jumlah Dongkrak
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
5
f(t+h)
|x(i)-f(t+h)|
8151
8149
8148
8177
8204
8253
8299
8316
8403
8478
8552
8611
8688
8715
8757
8766
8754
8791
8876
8915
8937
8966
9051
9065
9156
9188
9278
9308
9335
9373
9425
9490
9515
[x(i)-f(t+h)]^2
254
233
160
135
152
139
195
38
92
96
136
64
197
145
214
237
142
36
176
205
156
30
235
45
173
33
212
160
157
102
119
187
118
64448
54134
25685
18315
23246
19247
38155
1454
8550
9280
18623
4079
38862
21025
45767
56137
20088
1325
30953
42189
24274
916
55256
2049
29768
1080
45057
25685
24712
10336
14177
34894
13971
|(x(i)-f(t+h))/x(i)|
0.0321
0.0294
0.0201
0.0168
0.0189
0.0171
0.0241
0.0046
0.0111
0.0115
0.0162
0.0075
0.0232
0.0169
0.0250
0.0278
0.0165
0.0042
0.0202
0.0236
0.0177
0.0034
0.0267
0.0050
0.0192
0.0036
0.0234
0.0175
0.0171
0.0110
0.0128
0.0201
0.0126
9569
9587
9650
9755
9727
9761
9788
9840
9901
9885
10002
9929
9885
9856
9836
9820
9808
9798
9790
9783
9778
9773
Total
191
96
21
317
157
148
104
141
266
37
36583
9267
438
100278
24524
21884
10913
19994
70862
1399
0.0204
0.0101
0.0022
0.0336
0.0164
0.0154
0.0108
0.0146
0.0276
0.0038
6254.800
1119881.982
0.712
MAD
145.4604651163
MSE
26043.7670284238
MAP
1.655%
Moving Average dengan m=5
F (t
)
6
a
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
F(t)
8046
7843.00
7884.000
7917.667
7949.333
7990.167
8001.500
8036.000
8096.333
8150.167
8206.833
8267.500
8339.667
8404.167
8452.833
8491.500
8516.000
8548.667
8583.333
8618.167
8641.500
8681.167
8749.000
8783.000
8827.167
8874.333
8948.500
8996.000
9031.333
9091.667
9133.500
9187.333
9212.000
9267.167
F'(t)
-149
-173.171428571
-177.914285714
-173.285714286
-187.085714286
-158.228571429
-164.485714286
-153.914285714
-144.914285714
-133.428571429
-134.514285714
-125.285714286
-150.8
-152.342857143
-167.828571429
-184.371428571
-190.657142857
-161.514285714
-163.314285714
-159.828571429
-159.6
-153.628571429
-171.457142857
-143.2
-146.371428571
-139.142857143
-155.857142857
-146.142857143
-168.257142857
-156.971428571
-162.428571429
-152.371428571
-155.142857143
f(t+h)
|x(i)-f(t+h)|
7595
7595
7621
7661
7678
7738
7762
7840
7909
7984
8043
8131
8153
8199
8212
8209
8231
8314
8346
8375
8415
8493
8497
8589
8630
8717
8736
8788
8811
8872
8917
8958
321
393
421
391
436
366
516
471
473
432
504
360
417
344
317
403
524
386
364
406
521
323
523
395
525
349
412
390
460
434
386
439
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
0.02857143
9305.500
9357.667
9417.333
9439.333
9483.833
9519.833
9570.833
9605.500
9606.500
9687.167
-163.142857143
-162.142857143
-140.714285714
-160.028571429
-168.628571429
-167.542857143
-172.457142857
-170.114285714
-161.2
-149.828571429
9009
9034
9087
9183
9173
9203
9241
9283
9322
9338
9437
9500
9537
9562
9580
9594
9604
9612
9619
9625
9630
9634
Total
369
457
542
255
397
410
443
416
313
584
17589.548
MAD
418.7987528345
Moving Average WLT dengan m=
F (t
)
Jumlah Dongkrak
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
[x(i)-f(t+h)]^2
103255
154150
177121
153254
189785
134113
266403
222020
224067
186233
253704
129703
174028
118385
100625
162639
274676
148886
132513
164739
271267
104360
273280
155630
275225
122084
169548
152286
211381
188459
149290
192679
|(x(i)-f(t+h))/x(i)|
0.0406
0.0492
0.0523
0.0486
0.0537
0.0452
0.0624
0.0567
0.0565
0.0513
0.0589
0.0424
0.0487
0.0403
0.0372
0.0468
0.0599
0.0444
0.0418
0.0462
0.0583
0.0366
0.0580
0.0439
0.0573
0.0385
0.0450
0.0425
0.0496
0.0466
0.0415
0.0467
a
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
F(t)
7897
7853.43
7898.857
7935.429
7964.000
8007.857
8016.143
8070.571
8127.000
8183.286
8236.714
8307.429
8361.286
8427.857
8465.714
8496.857
8529.714
8578.143
8600.000
8631.286
8661.429
8717.571
8758.571
8816.857
8849.429
8914.429
8965.286
9017.714
9052.286
9117.286
9158.143
9203.857
9238.429
136460
209219
293300
65122
157912
168276
196608
172719
97984
341251
0.0394
0.0482
0.0562
0.0270
0.0415
0.0427
0.0458
0.0428
0.0325
0.0589
7574639.268
1.983
MSE
180348.554003347
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
0.01785714
9283.000
9332.000
9396.429
9420.286
9458.000
9502.286
9543.286
9589.143
9609.714
9651.571
MAP
4.721%
Plot Data Forecast M
dengan m=6
F (t
)
Jumlah Dongkrak
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
7
F'(t)
19
7.2142857143
6.4285714286
7
0.6428571429
16.3928571429
27.4285714286
31.1071428571
38.5714285714
43.3214285714
50.1785714286
42.2142857143
27.8214285714
18.75
3.4285714286
-0.6428571429
7.25
15.8571428571
12.0714285714
19.3571428571
31.8571428571
15.4642857143
22.5357142857
31.5
42.8928571429
29.9285714286
23.1785714286
28.6785714286
18.3571428571
24.6785714286
15.1785714286
28.8928571429
f(t+h)
|x(i)-f(t+h)|
7891
7913
7948
7978
8009
8049
8125
8189
8260
8323
8408
8446
8484
8503
8504
8528
8593
8632
8655
8700
8781
8790
8862
8912
9000
9025
9064
9110
9154
9208
9234
[x(i)-f(t+h)]^2
97
129
104
136
95
229
186
193
156
224
83
124
60
26
108
227
107
78
126
236
35
230
121
243
66
123
114
161
152
96
163
9326
16567
10757
18496
8998
52474
34437
37166
24202
50016
6925
15447
3540
665
11726
51335
11526
6129
15768
55629
1205
53130
14658
58841
4328
15094
12980
26036
23104
9120
26499
19.2142857143
22.2142857143
32.0357142857
18.5714285714
18.2857142857
12.75
17.1785714286
10.25
1.1428571429
37.3571428571
9296
9321
9376
9461
9457
9495
9528
9578
9610
9612
9726
9708
9696
9689
9684
9680
9676
9674
9672
9670
9669
9668
Total
82
170
253
23
113
118
156
121
25
310
6689
28754
63792
506
12672
14025
24403
14728
643
96100
5594.643
948435.934
MAD
136.4547038328
MSE
23132.5837481333
ot Data Forecast Moving Average WLT dengan m=7
x(i
)
8
|(x(i)-f(t+h))/x(i)|
0.0121
0.0160
0.0129
0.0168
0.0117
0.0277
0.0223
0.0230
0.0185
0.0262
0.0098
0.0145
0.0070
0.0030
0.0126
0.0259
0.0123
0.0090
0.0143
0.0264
0.0039
0.0256
0.0135
0.0265
0.0073
0.0134
0.0124
0.0174
0.0163
0.0103
0.0173
a
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
F(t)
F'(t)
7916
7870.25
72
7916.750 64.8571428571
7950.000
62.119047619
7982.750 65.2857142857
8019.875 56.5595238095
8048.875
80.869047619
8100.625 86.4404761905
8158.875 90.1071428571
8212.375 93.2261904762
8275.500 102.8571428571
8330.375
96.869047619
8387.375 93.6547619048
8442.250 76.2619047619
8473.625 65.8928571429
8511.250
60
8557.875 66.4642857143
8593.375 63.1071428571
8613.750 67.8571428571
8650.000 68.6428571429
8695.750 83.9047619048
8729.875 77.5595238095
8791.250 80.2142857143
8837.625 76.9880952381
8887.625 94.5833333333
8933.375 89.3452380952
8988.125 83.2976190476
9037.750 76.9285714286
9079.625 85.4642857143
9140.875 76.0833333333
9176.250 76.6428571429
9228.000 74.3333333333
0.0087
0.0179
0.0262
0.0024
0.0118
0.0123
0.0161
0.0125
0.0026
0.0312
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
0.01190476
9255.875
9309.000
9369.125
9401.625
9439.000
9477.375
9525.000
9562.750
9594.875
9648.750
79.0119047619
78.2619047619
87.6785714286
72.9404761905
72.9761904762
73.2261904762
71.7619047619
72.5476190476
58.7738095238
74.9047619048
0.628
MAP
1.531%
dengan m=7
x(i
)
Jumlah Dongkrak
Moving Average WLT
12000
11500
11000
10500
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
8
f(t+h)
|x(i)-f(t+h)|
8038
8068
8095
8135
8152
8238
8302
8369
8430
8516
8556
8606
8620
8627
8651
8713
8741
8772
8810
8892
8911
8978
9017
9108
9142
9182
9217
9279
9318
9355
[x(i)-f(t+h)]^2
4
16
19
31
126
73
80
47
117
25
14
63
91
15
104
13
31
9
126
76
109
5
138
42
6
4
54
27
15
42
14
259
363
966
15915
5392
6349
2197
13712
600
185
3957
8316
236
10764
168
938
80
15834
5704
11914
21
18971
1791
38
20
2889
727
237
1757
|(x(i)-f(t+h))/x(i)|
0.0005
0.0020
0.0023
0.0038
0.0152
0.0088
0.0095
0.0056
0.0137
0.0029
0.0016
0.0074
0.0107
0.0018
0.0119
0.0015
0.0035
0.0010
0.0141
0.0086
0.0121
0.0005
0.0150
0.0047
0.0007
0.0005
0.0058
0.0029
0.0017
0.0045
9401
9440
9492
9574
9572
9609
9648
9692
9732
9732
9824
9780
9754
9736
9724
9714
9707
9701
9696
9692
9689
9686
Total
23
51
137
136
2
4
36
7
97
190
550
2577
18876
18417
3
14
1279
43
9414
36095
0.0025
0.0053
0.0143
0.0144
0.0002
0.0004
0.0037
0.0007
0.0101
0.0191
2203.028
217582.110
0.245
MAD
55.0756944444
MSE
5439.5527488426
MAP
0.613%
x(i
)
9
a
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
F(t)
7988
7889.33
7931.778
7968.222
7996.222
8048.556
8078.000
8131.889
8187.444
8249.556
8299.444
8357.000
8404.667
8451.889
8489.000
8538.333
8573.667
8606.333
8632.333
8681.778
8709.111
8762.111
8812.556
8872.889
8907.444
8957.222
9009.222
9063.667
9104.778
9158.889
9200.778
F'(t)
54
46.5666666667
46.5666666667
45.9333333333
48.95
66.2333333333
71.4166666667
72.3666666667
79.7166666667
78.5166666667
75.9333333333
68.0833333333
51.3166666667
47.5
50.4
48.15
44.1
50.8
59.2666666667
58.9
65.7833333333
61.0833333333
67.2
70.25
69
63.1166666667
61.55
67.0666666667
56.2166666667
60.5166666667
f(t+h)
|x(i)-f(t+h)|
8033
8056
8092
8119
8179
8255
8322
8380
8462
8509
8559
8586
8589
8616
8673
8702
8724
8768
8840
8866
8938
8975
9052
9095
9141
9178
9228
9284
9309
19
58
12
159
132
127
94
167
29
61
16
57
23
139
27
8
57
168
24
154
45
180
14
53
37
93
78
19
88
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
0.00833333
9244.667
9282.000
9344.556
9376.778
9420.333
9458.333
9500.333
9544.333
9570.778
9631.222
54.1833333333
63.1333333333
68.2666666667
58.1166666667
54.4333333333
54.8333333333
57.1833333333
53.9833333333
47.75
55.1
9362
9389
9450
9527
9532
9565
9605
9653
9688
9698
9778
9741
9719
9705
9694
9686
9680
9675
9671
9668
9665
9663
Total
16
102
179
89
38
48
79
46
53
224
3013.267
MAD
77.2632478632
Moving Average WLT dengan m=
x(i
)
Jumlah Dongkrak
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
[x(i)-f(t+h)]^2
348
3369
135
25373
17401
16225
8773
27748
833
3743
272
3274
541
19414
743
63
3257
28291
567
23661
2067
32240
194
2833
1353
8736
6115
375
7779
|(x(i)-f(t+h))/x(i)|
0.0023
0.0072
0.0014
0.0192
0.0159
0.0152
0.0111
0.0195
0.0034
0.0071
0.0019
0.0067
0.0027
0.0159
0.0031
0.0009
0.0065
0.0188
0.0027
0.0171
0.0051
0.0196
0.0015
0.0058
0.0040
0.0101
0.0084
0.0021
0.0094
a
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
F(t)
8042
7905.60
7950.000
7981.800
8024.400
8074.800
8108.400
8160.300
8223.400
8273.700
8326.500
8375.600
8417.100
8467.900
8515.600
8554.500
8587.300
8623.800
8662.700
8695.200
8740.200
8784.200
8846.800
8892.200
8931.500
8979.300
9035.400
9087.900
9124.600
9182.700
251
10372
31914
7850
1463
2257
6311
2132
2840
50126
0.0017
0.0107
0.0186
0.0094
0.0040
0.0049
0.0082
0.0048
0.0055
0.0226
361241.732
0.335
MSE
9262.6085090218
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
0.00606061
9218.500
9269.300
9316.700
9353.900
9396.100
9439.600
9480.900
9520.200
9553.400
9605.900
MAP
0.859%
LT dengan m=9
x(i
)
Jumlah Dongkrak
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
10
F'(t)
10
5.6606060606
3.1272727273
10.6303030303
11.7696969697
26.6060606061
29.2909090909
34.096969697
33
33.7151515152
27.2242424242
18.1515151515
7.9090909091
10.9090909091
7.3272727273
4.3090909091
3.4545454545
15.3636363636
12.2787878788
21.6484848485
21.7454545455
24.9575757576
21.2606060606
26.0666666667
24.0787878788
22.0363636364
19.8363636364
21.4424242424
15.7272727273
f(t+h)
|x(i)-f(t+h)|
7936
7967
7991
8056
8110
8188
8248
8326
8373
8428
8457
8472
8492
8548
8576
8600
8634
8709
8732
8805
8849
8922
8956
9010
9052
9102
9147
9189
[x(i)-f(t+h)]^2
178
137
287
255
272
228
299
165
197
115
72
140
263
152
134
181
302
107
288
178
306
144
192
168
219
204
156
208
31827
18774
82265
64877
73925
51885
89298
27327
38927
13307
5145
19725
69365
23005
17827
32679
91105
11494
82923
31632
93369
20830
36871
28325
48164
41817
24209
43294
15.5333333333
14.696969697
26.696969697
16.6
14.6606060606
11.9515151515
14.0424242424
14.2787878788
6.0606060606
15.7393939394
9230
9265
9313
9397
9404
9440
9475
9523
9563
9572
9653
9641
9634
9630
9626
9624
9622
9620
9619
9618
9617
9616
Total
148
226
316
41
166
173
209
176
72
350
21939
51031
99609
1698
27656
29901
43491
30966
5179
122793
7424.564
1648451.382
MAD
195.3832535885
MSE
43380.2995345803
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
|(x(i)-f(t+h))/x(i)|
0.0220
0.0169
0.0346
0.0306
0.0324
0.0271
0.0350
0.0195
0.0230
0.0135
0.0084
0.0163
0.0301
0.0174
0.0153
0.0206
0.0338
0.0122
0.0319
0.0198
0.0334
0.0159
0.0210
0.0183
0.0237
0.0220
0.0167
0.0221
0.0158
0.0238
0.0328
0.0044
0.0174
0.0180
0.0215
0.0181
0.0075
0.0353
0.828
MAP
2.179%
an m=10
x(i
)
Kesimpulan Dongkrak B
Model
Double Exponential Smoothing ( = 0.5)
Linear regression
Moving Average with Trend (m=8)
MIN
Model Terbaik
Linear Regression
Nilai MSE
7685.920954618
3998.097916893
5439.552748843
3998.097916893
Nilai MAD
67.25073315
51.8442204009
55.0756944444
51.8442204009
Nilai MSE
Nilai MAD
3998.097916893 51.8442204009
Nilai MAPE
0.771%
0.594%
0.613%
0.594%
Nilai MAPE
0.594%
Verifikas
Periode
Data Aktual
Hasil Peramalan
Error
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
7670
7786
7852
7807
8046
7897
7916
7988
8042
8052
8114
8104
8278
8311
8382
8416
8547
8491
8570
8543
8529
8612
8755
8700
8710
8781
8936
8816
9020
8983
9155
9066
9148
9178
9271
9306
9303
9397
9378
7709.9183673469
7754.6532240556
7799.3880807642
7844.1229374729
7888.8577941815
7933.5926508902
7978.3275075988
8023.0623643074
8067.7972210161
8112.5320777247
8157.2669344334
8202.001791142
8246.7366478506
8291.4715045593
8336.2063612679
8380.9412179766
8425.6760746852
8470.4109313938
8515.1457881025
8559.8806448111
8604.6155015198
8649.3503582284
8694.085214937
8738.8200716457
8783.5549283543
8828.289785063
8873.0246417716
8917.7594984803
8962.4943551889
9007.2292118975
9051.9640686062
9096.6989253148
9141.4337820235
9186.1686387321
9230.9034954407
9275.6383521494
9320.373208858
9365.1080655667
9409.8429222753
-39.9183673469
31.3467759444
52.6119192358
-37.1229374729
157.1422058185
-36.5926508901
-62.3275075988
-35.0623643074
-25.7972210161
-60.5320777247
-43.2669344333
-98.001791142
31.2633521494
19.5284954407
45.7936387321
35.0587820234
121.3239253148
20.5890686062
54.8542118975
-16.8806448111
-75.6155015198
-37.3503582284
60.914785063
-38.8200716457
-73.5549283543
-47.289785063
62.9753582284
-101.7594984802
57.5056448111
-24.2292118975
103.0359313938
-30.6989253148
6.5662179766
-8.1686387321
40.0965045593
30.3616478506
-17.373208858
31.8919344333
-31.8429222753
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
9491
9629
9438
9570
9613
9684
9699
9635
9922
9454.5777789839
9499.3126356926
9544.0474924012
9588.7823491099
9633.5172058185
9678.2520625271
9722.9869192358
9767.7217759444
9812.4566326531
36.4222210161
129.6873643074
-106.0474924012
-18.7823491099
-20.5172058185
5.7479374729
-23.9869192358
-132.7217759444
109.5433673469
Verifikasi Dongkrak B
MR
UCL
LCL
A+
B+
71.2651432914
21.2651432914
89.7348567086
194.2651432914
193.7348567086
25.7348567086
27.2651432914
9.2651432914
34.7348567086
17.2651432914
54.7348567086
129.2651432914
11.7348567086
26.2651432914
10.7348567086
86.2651432914
100.7348567086
34.2651432914
71.7348567086
58.7348567086
38.2651432914
98.2651432914
99.7348567086
34.7348567086
26.2651432914
110.2651432914
164.7348567086
159.2651432914
81.7348567086
127.2651432914
133.7348567086
37.2651432914
14.7348567086
48.2651432914
9.7348567086
47.7348567086
49.2651432914
63.7348567086
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
-198.496283
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
A-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
68.2651432914
93.2651432914
235.7348567086
87.2651432914
1.7348567086
26.2651432914
29.7348567086
108.7348567086
242.2651432914
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
-198.4962825778
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
132.3308550518
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
66.1654275259
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
-132.3308550518
B-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
VERIFIKASI
74.6226626232
198.4962825778
-198.496283
132.3308550518
66.1654275259
-132.3308550518
-66.1654275259
MR-Bar
UCL
LCL
A+
B+
AB-
Verifikasi Dongkrak B
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50 0
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
-100
-150
-200
-250
Kesimpulan
Tidak ada 2 dari 3 data berturutan berada di daerah A sehingga data termasuk dalam ko
berturutan berada pada daerah B sehingga data dapat dikatakan normal . Tidak terdap
terdapat disalah satu sisi central line. Tidak terdapat data diluar
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
-66.1654275259
Dongkrak B
Error
UCL
LCL
A+
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
mpulan
gga data termasuk dalam kondisi normal. Tidak ada 4 dari 5 data
akan normal . Tidak terdapat 8 data secara berturut turut yang
Tidak terdapat data diluar UCL dan LCL.
51
B+
AB-
Disagregasi Dongkrak B
Data Demand
Persentase (%)
Periode
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
Hasil Forecasting
9857.191
9901.926
9946.661
9991.396
10036.131
10080.866
10125.601
10170.335
10215.070
10259.805
10304.540
10349.275
Regional 1
140172
33.33%
Regional 2
139977
33.29%
Regional 1
3285.566
3300.477
3315.388
3330.299
3345.210
3360.121
3375.032
3389.943
3404.853
3419.764
3434.675
3449.586
Regional 2
3280.996
3295.886
3310.776
3325.666
3340.556
3355.446
3370.336
3385.227
3400.117
3415.007
3429.897
3444.787
Regional 3
140388
33.38%
Regional 3
3290.629
3305.563
3320.497
3335.431
3350.365
3365.299
3380.232
3395.166
3410.100
3425.034
3439.968
3454.902
100.00%
9857
Dongkrak ...
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
4400
ngkrak ...
Plot Data Horizontal (Dongkrak C)
Plot Data :
Horizontal
Metode :
1 Single Moving Average
2 Weighted Moving Average
3 Single Exponential Smoothing
Simple Moving Average

Parameter
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
D(t)
5034
5015
4875
4936
4846
5087
5098
5187
5030
4999
5043
4945
5163
5242
5049
4809
5078
5224
5037
4997
4885
5106
5082
5114
5203
4917
5105
5091
5084
5110
5056
4960
5082
5211
5100
4875
5160
5025
5147
5102
N= 2
f(t)
|D(t)-f(t)|
(D(t)-f(t))2
5024.5
4945
4905.5
4891
4966.5
5092.5
5142.5
5108.5
5014.5
5021
4994
5054
5202.5
5145.5
4929
4943.5
5151
5130.5
5017
4941
4995.5
5094
5098
5158.5
5060
5011
5098
5087.5
5097
5083
5008
5021
5146.5
5155.5
4987.5
5017.5
5092.5
5086
149.5
9
59.5
196
131.5
94.5
112.5
109.5
28.5
76
169
188
153.5
336.5
149
280.5
114
133.5
132
165
86.5
20
105
241.5
45
80
14
22.5
41
123
74
190
46.5
280.5
172.5
7.5
54.5
16
22350.25
81
3540.25
38416
17292.25
8930.25
12656.25
11990.25
812.25
5776
28561
35344
23562.25
113232.25
22201
78680.25
12996
17822.25
17424
27225
7482.25
400
11025
58322.25
2025
6400
196
506.25
1681
15129
5476
36100
2162.25
78680.25
29756.25
56.25
2970.25
256
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
5209
4963
5098
5040
4980
4863
4845
4988
5124.5
5155.5
5086
5030.5
5069
5010
4921.5
4854
4916.5
4916.5
4916.5
4916.5
4916.5
4916.5
4916.5
4916.5
4916.5
4916.5
4916.5
4916.5
Total
84.5
192.5
12
9.5
89
147
76.5
134
7140.25
37056.25
144
90.25
7921
21609
5852.25
17956
5152.5
855285.75
MAD
MSE
112.0108695652 18593.1684782609
Visualisasi
N=2
5500
5400
5300
5200
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
Ringkasan
N
2
Ringkasan
MAD
MSE
112.0108695652 18593.1684782609
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
106.2074074074
101.1818181818
93.6651162791
90.0555555556
90.93728223
90.996875
92.0826210826
89.9526315789
17250.5086419753
15170.9431818182
13841.1795348837
13058.8174603175
12854.6286709806
13026.056640625
13468.0256410256
13102.1968421053
Kesimpulan
Nilai Minimal
MAD
MSE
89.9526315789 12854.6286709806
Kesimpulan
Dari tabel ringkasan dan tabel nilai minimal dapat dilihat bahwa nilai minimum MAD
=89.9447368 yang berasal dari parameter N = 10; MSE = 12853.54853 yang berasal da
parameter N= 7 dan MAPE = 1.789% yang berasal dari parameter N = 6. Dengan
demikian model terbaik dihasilkan dari parameter N = 6 yang menghasilkan error
minimum MAP (error minimum terletak antara N = 6 dan N= 7)
N= 3
|(D(t)-f(t))/D(t)|
f(t)
|D(t)-f(t)|
(D(t)-f(t))2
0.0306666667
0.0018233387
0.0122781676
0.0385295852
0.0257944292
0.0182186235
0.0223658052
0.0219043809
0.005651398
0.0153690597
0.0327329072
0.035864174
0.0304020598
0.0699729674
0.0293422607
0.053694487
0.0226325194
0.0267160296
0.0270214944
0.0323149236
0.0170208579
0.003910833
0.020180665
0.0491153142
0.0088148874
0.0157140051
0.0027537372
0.0044031311
0.0081091772
0.0247983871
0.0145611964
0.0364613318
0.0091176471
0.0575384615
0.0334302326
0.0014925373
0.0105886924
0.0031360251
4974.6666666667
4942
4885.6666666667
4956.3333333333
5010.3333333333
5124
5105
5072
5024
4995.6666666667
5050.3333333333
5116.6666666667
5151.3333333333
5033.3333333333
4978.6666666667
5037
5113
5086
4973
4996
5024.3333333333
5100.6666666667
5133
5078
5075
5037.6666666667
5093.3333333333
5095
5083.3333333333
5042
5032.6666666667
5084.3333333333
5131
5062
5045
5020
5110.6666666667
38.6666666667
96
201.3333333333
141.6666666667
176.6666666667
94
106
29
79
167.3333333333
191.6666666667
67.6666666667
342.3333333333
44.6666666667
245.3333333333
0
116
201
133
86
89.6666666667
102.3333333333
216
27
16
46.3333333333
16.6666666667
39
123.3333333333
40
178.3333333333
15.6666666667
256
98
20
127
8.6666666667
1495.1111111111
9216
40535.111111111
20069.4444444445
31211.1111111112
8836
11236
841
6241
28000.4444444443
36736.1111111112
4578.7777777778
117192.111111111
1995.1111111111
60188.4444444443
0
13456
40401
17689
7396
8040.1111111112
10472.111111111
46656
729
256
2146.7777777778
277.7777777778
1521
15211.111111111
1600
31802.7777777777
245.4444444445
65536
9604
400
16129
75.1111111111
0.0162219236
0.038787024
0.0023538643
0.0018849206
0.0178714859
0.0302282542
0.0157894737
0.0268644747
1.024443818
5091.3333333333
5152.6666666667
5091.3333333333
5090
5033.6666666667
5039.3333333333
4961
4896
4898.6666666667
4898.6666666667
4898.6666666667
4898.6666666667
4898.6666666667
4898.6666666667
4898.6666666667
4898.6666666667
4898.6666666667
4898.6666666667
4898.6666666667
4898.6666666667
Total
MAP
N=3
5500
5400
5300
5200
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
MAP
2.23%
13845.4444444445
35973.4444444446
44.4444444444
2500
2880.1111111112
31093.4444444443
13456
8464
4779.3333333333 776272.888888889
MAD
MSE
106.2074074074 17250.5086419753
2.23%
117.6666666667
189.6666666667
6.6666666667
50
53.6666666667
176.3333333333
116
92
2.11%
2.01%
1.86%
1.79%
1.81%
1.81%
1.83%
1.79%
ai Minimal
MAP
1.79%
ulan
dapat dilihat bahwa nilai minimum MAD

= 10; MSE = 12853.54853 yang berasal dari
g berasal dari parameter N = 6. Dengan
rameter N = 6 yang menghasilkan error
erletak antara N = 6 dan N= 7)
N= 4
|(D(t)-f(t))/D(t)|
f(t)
|D(t)-f(t)|
(D(t)-f(t))2
0.0078336035
0.0198101527
0.0395780093
0.0277886753
0.0340595077
0.0186878728
0.0212042408
0.0057505453
0.0159757331
0.0324100975
0.0365636525
0.0134019938
0.0711859707
0.008796114
0.0469627361
0
0.0232139284
0.0411463664
0.0260477869
0.0169224715
0.017533568
0.0196681402
0.0439292251
0.0052889324
0.003142801
0.0091135589
0.0032615786
0.0077136076
0.0248655914
0.007870917
0.0342224781
0.0030718954
0.0525128205
0.0189922481
0.0039800995
0.0246745677
0.0016986803
4965
4918
4936
4991.75
5054.5
5100.5
5078.5
5064.75
5004.25
5037.5
5098.25
5099.75
5065.75
5044.5
5040
5037
5084
5035.75
5006.25
5017.5
5046.75
5126.25
5079
5084.75
5079
5049.25
5097.5
5085.25
5052.5
5052
5077.25
5088.25
5067
5086.5
5040
5051.75
119
169
162
195.25
24.5
101.5
35.5
119.75
158.75
204.5
49.25
290.75
12.25
179.5
3
40
199
70.25
75.75
96.5
156.25
209.25
26
6.25
5
60.75
41.5
125.25
29.5
159
22.75
213.25
93
61.5
107
50.25
14161
28561
26244
38122.5625
600.25
10302.25
1260.25
14340.0625
25201.5625
41820.25
2425.5625
84535.5625
150.0625
32220.25
9
1600
39601
4935.0625
5738.0625
9312.25
24414.0625
43785.5625
676
39.0625
25
3690.5625
1722.25
15687.5625
870.25
25281
517.5625
45475.5625
8649
3782.25
11449
2525.0625
0.0225891086
0.0382161327
0.0013077024
0.0099206349
0.0107764391
0.036260196
0.0239422085
0.0184442662
5108.5
5120.75
5105.25
5093
5077.5
5020.25
4995.25
4932
4919
4919
4919
4919
4919
4919
4919
4919
4919
4919
4919
4919
0.9503368564
Total
MAP
100.5
157.75
7.25
53
97.5
157.25
150.25
56
10100.25
24885.0625
52.5625
2809
9506.25
24727.5625
22575.0625
3136
4452
667521.5
MAD
MSE
101.1818181818 15170.9431818182
2.11%
N=4
5500
5400
5300
5200
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
N= 5
|(D(t)-f(t))/D(t)|
f(t)
|D(t)-f(t)|
(D(t)-f(t))2
|(D(t)-f(t))/D(t)|
0.0245563351
0.0332219383
0.0317771675
0.0376421824
0.0048707753
0.0203040608
0.0070394606
0.0242163802
0.0307476273
0.0390118275
0.0097544068
0.060459555
0.0024123671
0.0343606432
0.0005955926
0.0080048029
0.0407369498
0.0137583235
0.014905549
0.0188697693
0.0300307515
0.0425564369
0.005093046
0.0012276566
0.0009834776
0.011888454
0.0082080696
0.0252520161
0.0058048013
0.0305123777
0.0044607843
0.0437435897
0.0180232558
0.012238806
0.020788809
0.0098490788
4941.2
4951.8
4968.4
5030.8
5049.6
5080.2
5071.4
5040.8
5036
5078.4
5088.4
5041.6
5068.2
5080.4
5039.4
5029
5044.2
5049.8
5021.4
5036.8
5078
5084.4
5084.2
5086
5080
5061.4
5089.2
5060.2
5058.4
5083.8
5081.8
5045.6
5085.6
5074.2
5061.4
145.8
146.2
218.6
0.8
50.6
37.2
126.4
122.2
206
29.4
279.4
36.4
155.8
43.4
42.4
144
61.8
32.2
92.6
166.2
161
20.6
6.8
2
30
5.4
129.2
21.8
152.6
16.2
206.8
114.4
60.6
72.8
40.6
21257.64
21374.44
47785.96
0.64
2560.36
1383.84
15976.96
14932.84
42436
864.36
78064.36
1324.96
24273.64
1883.56
1797.76
20736
3819.24
1036.84
8574.76
27622.44
25921
424.36
46.24
4
900
29.16
16692.64
475.24
23286.76
262.44
42766.24
13087.36
3672.36
5299.84
1648.36
0.0286612935
0.0286779129
0.0421438211
0.0001590457
0.0101220244
0.0073765616
0.0255611729
0.0236684098
0.0392979779
0.0058229352
0.058099397
0.0071681764
0.0298238897
0.0086162398
0.0084850911
0.0294779939
0.0121034078
0.0063360882
0.0181071568
0.0319431097
0.0327435428
0.0040352595
0.0013356904
0.000393391
0.0058708415
0.001068038
0.0260483871
0.0042896497
0.0292842065
0.0031764706
0.0424205128
0.0221705426
0.0120597015
0.0141441616
0.0079576637
0.0192935304
0.0317852106
0.0014221263
0.010515873
0.0195783133
0.0323360066
0.0310113519
0.0112269447
0.885076482
5061.8
5128.6
5089.2
5103.8
5082.4
5058
4988.8
4965.2
4943.2
4943.2
4943.2
4943.2
4943.2
4943.2
4943.2
4943.2
4943.2
4943.2
4943.2
4943.2
Total
MAP
147.2
165.6
8.8
63.8
102.4
195
143.8
22.8
21667.84
27423.36
77.44
4070.44
10485.76
38025
20678.44
519.84
0.0282587829
0.0333669152
0.0017261671
0.0126587302
0.020562249
0.0400987045
0.0296800826
0.0045709703
4027.6
595170.72
0.7995723666
MAD
MSE
93.665116279 13841.1795349
2.01%
N=5
5500
5400
5300
5200
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
MAP
1.86%
N= 6
N=
f(t)
|D(t)-f(t)|
(D(t)-f(t))2
|(D(t)-f(t))/D(t)|
f(t)
4965.5
4976.16666667
5004.83333333
5030.66666667
5041.16666667
5074
5050.33333333
5061.16666667
5070.33333333
5073.5
5041.83333333
5047.66666667
5094.16666667
5073.16666667
5032.33333333
5005
5054.5
5055.16666667
5036.83333333
5064.5
5051.16666667
5087.83333333
5085.33333333
5085.66666667
5085
5060.5
5067.66666667
5063.83333333
5083.83333333
5086.5
5047.33333333
5064.66666667
5075.5
5086.33333333
132.5
210.83333333
25.166666667
31.666666667
1.8333333333
129
112.66666667
180.83333333
21.333333333
264.5
36.166666667
176.33333333
57.166666667
76.166666667
147.33333333
101
27.5
58.833333333
166.16666667
147.5
53.833333333
3.1666666667
1.3333333333
24.333333333
29
100.5
14.333333333
147.16666667
16.166666667
211.5
112.66666667
39.666666667
71.5
15.666666667
17556.25
44450.6944444
633.361111111
1002.77777778
3.3611111111
16641
12693.7777778
32700.6944444
455.111111111
69960.25
1308.02777778
31093.4444444
3268.02777778
5801.36111111
21707.1111111
10201
756.25
3461.36111111
27611.3611111
21756.25
2898.02777778
10.0277777778
1.7777777778
592.111111111
841
10100.25
205.444444444
21658.0277778
261.361111111
44732.25
12693.7777778
1573.44444444
5112.25
245.444444444
0.0259905845
0.040646488
0.0050033135
0.0063346003
0.0003635402
0.0260869565
0.0218219381
0.0344970113
0.0042252591
0.0550010397
0.0071222266
0.0337544666
0.0113493482
0.0152424788
0.0301603548
0.0197806502
0.0054112554
0.0115043671
0.0319367032
0.0299979662
0.0105452171
0.0006220127
0.0002622607
0.0047619048
0.0057357595
0.0202620968
0.0028204119
0.0282415403
0.0031699346
0.0433846154
0.0218346253
0.007893864
0.0138915873
0.0030706912
4984.4285714
5006.2857143
5008.4285714
5026.1428571
5041.4285714
5055.5714286
5066.4285714
5087
5067.2857143
5035.7142857
5047
5072.8571429
5086
5062.2857143
5011.2857143
5019.4285714
5058.4285714
5063.5714286
5060.5714286
5043.4285714
5058.8571429
5088.2857143
5085.1428571
5089.1428571
5080.8571429
5046.1428571
5069.7142857
5084.8571429
5086.1428571
5056.2857143
5063.4285714
5059
5085.7142857
5068.16666667
5086.33333333
5101
5090.66666667
5093.16666667
5065.33333333
5025.5
4964.83333333
4969
4969
4969
4969
4969
4969
4969
4969
4969
4969
4969
4969
Total
140.83333333
123.33333333
3
50.666666667
113.16666667
202.33333333
180.5
23.166666667
19834.0277778
15211.1111111
9
2567.11111111
12806.6944444
40938.7777778
32580.25
536.694444444
0.0270365393
0.0248505608
0.0005884661
0.0100529101
0.0227242303
0.04160669
0.037254902
0.0046444801
3782.3333333 548470.333333
0.7514858487
MAD
MSE
90.055555556 13058.8174603
MAP
5088.5714286
5088.2857143
5068.7142857
5100.5714286
5083.4285714
5077
5036.4285714
4999.7142857
4968.1428571
4968.1428571
4968.1428571
4968.1428571
4968.1428571
4968.1428571
4968.1428571
4968.1428571
4968.1428571
4968.1428571
4968.1428571
4968.1428571
Total
1.79%
N=6
N=7
5500
5500
5400
5400
5300
5300
5200
5200
5100
5100
5000
5000
4900
4900
4800
4800
4700
4700
4600
4600
4500
57
50
43
36
29
22
15
4500
N= 8
|D(t)-f(t)|
(D(t)-f(t))2
|(D(t)-f(t))/D(t)|
f(t)
|D(t)-f(t)|
(D(t)-f(t))2
202.57142857
23.714285714
9.4285714286
16.857142857
96.428571429
107.42857143
175.57142857
38
258.28571429
42.285714286
177
35.857142857
89
177.28571429
94.714285714
62.571428571
55.571428571
139.42857143
143.57142857
61.571428571
32.142857143
4.2857142857
24.857142857
33.142857143
120.85714286
35.857142857
141.28571429
15.142857143
211.14285714
103.71428571
38.428571429
88
16.285714286
41035.183673
562.36734694
88.897959184
284.16326531
9298.4693878
11540.897959
30825.326531
1444
66711.510204
1788.0816327
31329
1285.7346939
7921
31430.22449
8970.7959184
3915.1836735
3088.1836735
19440.326531
20612.755102
3791.0408163
1033.1632653
18.367346939
617.87755102
1098.4489796
14606.44898
1285.7346939
19961.653061
229.30612245
44581.306122
10756.653061
1476.755102
7744
265.2244898
0.0390536782
0.0047145697
0.0018860915
0.0033426815
0.0195002167
0.0208073933
0.0334932141
0.0075262428
0.0537088198
0.0083272379
0.0338820827
0.0071187498
0.0178106864
0.0362918555
0.0185496055
0.012312363
0.0108665289
0.0267977266
0.0291989889
0.0120610046
0.0063136628
0.0008429808
0.0048644115
0.0065551537
0.0243663594
0.0070557148
0.0271129753
0.0029691877
0.0433113553
0.0200996678
0.0076474769
0.0170973383
0.0031920255
5009.75
5009.25
5007.25
5028.25
5029.375
5069
5088.375
5082.25
5035
5041
5069.125
5068.375
5074.875
5040.125
5023.125
5027.25
5065.375
5081
5042.625
5051.125
5062.875
5087.75
5088.25
5085
5065.75
5050.625
5087.375
5086.75
5059.75
5069.25
5058.625
5070
20.25
10.25
35.75
83.25
133.625
173
39.375
273.25
43
183
32.125
71.375
189.875
65.875
58.875
86.75
137.625
164
62.375
39.875
21.125
22.25
32.25
125
16.25
160.375
12.625
211.75
100.25
44.25
88.375
32
410.0625
105.0625
1278.0625
6930.5625
17855.640625
29929
1550.390625
74665.5625
1849
33489
1032.015625
5094.390625
36052.515625
4339.515625
3466.265625
7525.5625
18940.640625
26896
3890.640625
1590.015625
446.265625
495.0625
1040.0625
15625
264.0625
25720.140625
159.390625
44838.0625
10050.0625
1958.0625
7810.140625
1024
120.42857143
125.28571429
29.285714286
60.571428571
103.42857143
214
191.42857143
11.714285714
14503.040816
15696.510204
857.65306122
3668.8979592
10697.469388
45796
36644.897959
137.2244898
0.0231193264
0.0252439481
0.0057445497
0.0120181406
0.0207687894
0.0440057578
0.0395105411
0.0023484935
3728.4285714 527039.77551
0.7414375938
MAD
MSE
90.93728223 12854.628671
5087.75
5103.625
5072.625
5072.375
5093
5070.5
5050.25
5012.5
4998.25
4998.25
4998.25
4998.25
4998.25
4998.25
4998.25
4998.25
4998.25
4998.25
4998.25
4998.25
Total
MAP
121.25
140.625
25.375
32.375
113
207.5
205.25
24.5
14701.5625
19775.390625
643.890625
1048.140625
12769
43056.25
42127.5625
600.25
3639.875
521042.265625
MAD
MSE
90.996875 13026.056640625
1.81%
N=8
00
5500
00
5400
00
5300
00
5200
00
5100
00
5000
00
4900
00
4800
00
4700
00
4600
00
4500
N= 9
|(D(t)-f(t))/D(t)|
f(t)
|D(t)-f(t)|
(D(t)-f(t))2
|(D(t)-f(t))/D(t)|
0.0040258449
0.0020504101
0.0070890343
0.0168351871
0.0258812706
0.0330026707
0.007798574
0.0568205448
0.0084679007
0.0350306279
0.0063778042
0.0142835701
0.0388689867
0.0129014884
0.0115850059
0.0169632382
0.0264510859
0.0333536709
0.0122184133
0.0078324494
0.0041551928
0.0043542074
0.0063785601
0.0252016129
0.00319756
0.0307762426
0.0024754902
0.0434358974
0.0194282946
0.0088059701
0.0171701962
0.0062720502
5012
5008.1111111
5011.2222222
5019
5044.2222222
5088.2222222
5084
5051.8888889
5039.7777778
5061.3333333
5065.5555556
5060.4444444
5053.7777778
5047.4444444
5029.6666667
5036.8888889
5080.6666667
5062.7777778
5049.5555556
5055.5555556
5065.2222222
5090.2222222
5084.6666667
5071.1111111
5067.5555556
5068.4444444
5088.7777778
5063.2222222
5070.8888889
5064.3333333
5068.4444444
13
34.888888889
66.222222222
144
197.77777778
39.222222222
275
26.1111111111
184.22222222
24.333333333
68.555555556
175.44444444
52.222222222
34.555555556
84.333333333
166.11111111
163.66666667
42.222222222
41.444444444
28.444444444
44.777777778
34.222222222
124.66666667
10.888888889
143.44444444
31.555555556
213.77777778
96.777777778
45.888888889
82.666666667
33.555555556
169
1217.2345679012
4385.3827160494
20736
39116.0493827159
1538.3827160494
75625
681.7901234568
33937.827160494
592.1111111111
4699.8641975309
30780.7530864197
2727.1604938272
1194.0864197531
7112.1111111111
27592.901234568
26786.7777777779
1782.7160493828
1717.6419753086
809.0864197531
2005.049382716
1171.1604938272
15541.7777777779
118.5679012346
20576.3086419753
995.7530864198
45700.9382716048
9365.9382716049
2105.7901234568
6833.7777777778
1125.975308642
0.0026005201
0.0069182806
0.0133917537
0.0278907612
0.0377294502
0.007768315
0.0571844458
0.0051420069
0.0352645908
0.0048309179
0.0137193427
0.0359149323
0.0102276189
0.0067995977
0.0164906792
0.0319260256
0.0332858789
0.0082707585
0.0081407276
0.0055948947
0.0087627745
0.0067686357
0.0251344086
0.0021426385
0.0275272394
0.0061873638
0.0438518519
0.0187553833
0.0091321172
0.0160611359
0.0065769415
0.0232770205
0.0283346766
0.0049774421
0.0064236111
0.0226907631
0.0426691343
0.0423632611
0.0049117883
0.72513675
5073.5555556
5101.2222222
5088
5075.4444444
5068.7777778
5080.4444444
5047.4444444
5027.4444444
5009.7777778
5009.7777778
5009.7777778
5009.7777778
5009.7777778
5009.7777778
5009.7777778
5009.7777778
5009.7777778
5009.7777778
5009.7777778
5009.7777778
Total
MAP
135.44444444
138.22222222
10
35.444444444
88.777777778
217.44444444
202.44444444
39.444444444
18345.1975308642
19105.3827160495
100
1256.3086419753
7881.4938271604
47282.086419753
40983.7530864197
1555.8641975309
0.0260020051
0.0278505384
0.0019615536
0.0070326279
0.017826863
0.044714054
0.0417841991
0.0079078678
3591.2222222
525253
0.7150716974
MAD
MSE
92.082621083 13468.0256410256
1.81%
N=9
5500
5400
5300
5200
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
MAP
1.83%
N = 10
f(t)
|D(t)-f(t)|
(D(t)-f(t))2
|(D(t)-f(t))/D(t)|
5010.7
5011.6
5004.6
5033.4
5064
5084.3
5056.5
5054.5
5058.2
5058.9
5058.7
5042.9
5059
5050.9
5038.1
5053.5
5064.3
5067
5053.7
5058.4
5069.7
5086.8
5072.2
5072.2
5081.9
5071.6
5067.4
5072.9
5066.3
5072.6
32.3
66.6
158.4
208.6
15
275.3
21.5
169.5
21.2
61.9
173.7
63.1
23
63.1
164.9
136.5
40.7
24
30.3
51.6
13.7
126.8
9.8
138.8
18.1
196.6
92.6
47.9
80.7
29.4
1043.29
4435.5600000001
25090.56
43513.96
225
75790.09
462.25
28730.25
449.44
3831.61
30171.69
3981.6100000001
529
3981.6100000001
27192.01
18632.25
1656.49
576
918.09
2662.56
187.69
16078.24
96.04
19265.44
327.61
38651.56
8574.7600000001
2294.41
6512.49
864.36
0.0064049177
0.0134681496
0.0306798373
0.0397939718
0.0029708853
0.0572468289
0.0042339504
0.0324464012
0.0042088545
0.0123874325
0.0355578301
0.0123580102
0.0045257773
0.0123386781
0.0316932539
0.0277608298
0.0079725759
0.0047142015
0.0059598741
0.0100978474
0.0027096519
0.0255645161
0.0019283747
0.0266359624
0.0035490196
0.0403282051
0.0179457364
0.0095323383
0.0156790363
0.0057624461
5071.8
5087.1
5087.4
5089
5071.9
5059.9
5058.7
5027.2
5023.5
5023.5
5023.5
5023.5
5023.5
5023.5
5023.5
5023.5
5023.5
5023.5
5023.5
5023.5
Total
137.2
124.1
10.6
49
91.9
196.9
213.7
39.2
18823.84
15400.81
112.36
2401
8445.6099999999
38769.61
45667.69
1536.64
0.0263390286
0.0250050373
0.0020792468
0.0097222222
0.0184538153
0.0404894098
0.0441073271
0.0078588613
3418.2
497883.48
0.6805103427
MAD
MSE
89.952631579 13102.196842105
N = 10
5300
5200
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
MAP
1.79%
Weighted Moving Average

N=2
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
x(t)
5034
5015
4875
4936
4846
5087
5098
5187
5030
4999
5043
4945
5163
5242
5049
4809
5078
5224
5037
4997
4885
5106
5082
5114
5203
4917
5105
5091
5084
5110
5056
4960
5082
5211
5100
4875
5160
5025
5147
f(t)
|x(t)-f(t)|
(x(t)-f(t))2
5021.33
4921.67
4915.67
4876
5006.67
5094.33
5157.33
5082.33
5009.33
5028.33
4977.67
5090.33
5215.67
5113.33
4889
4988.33
5175.33
5099.33
5010.33
4922.33
5032.33
5090
5103.33
5173.33
5012.33
5042.33
5095.67
5086.33
5101.33
5074
4992
5041.33
5168
5137
4950
5065
5070
146.333333
14.333333
69.666667
211.000000
91.333333
92.666667
127.333333
83.333333
33.666667
83.333333
185.333333
151.666667
166.666667
304.333333
189.000000
235.666667
138.333333
102.333333
125.333333
183.666667
49.666667
24.000000
99.666667
256.333333
92.666667
48.666667
11.666667
23.666667
45.333333
114.000000
90.000000
169.666667
68.000000
262.000000
210.000000
40.000000
77.000000
21413
205
4853
44521
8342
8587
16214
6944
1133
6944
34348
23003
27778
92619
35721
55539
19136
10472
15708
33733
2467
576
9933
65707
8587
2368
136
560
2055
12996
8100
28787
4624
68644
44100
1600
5929
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
5102
5209
4963
5098
5040
4980
4863
4845
4988
5106.33
5117
5173.33
5045
5053
5059.33
5000
4902
4851
4940.33
4940.33
4940.33
4940.33
4940.33
4940.33
4940.33
4940.33
4940.33
4940.33
4940.33
4940.33
Total
4.333333
92.000000
210.333333
53.000000
13.000000
79.333333
137.000000
57.000000
137.000000
19
8464
44240
2809
169
6294
18769
3249
18769
5200.666667
837167.333333
MAD
113.057971
MSE
18199.289855
Visualisasi
5500
5400
5300
5200
5100
Data Aktual
5000
Data
Forec ast
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
Ringkasan
N
MAD
Ringkasan
MSE
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
113.057971
107.692593
105.604545
419.394961
96.547619
93.718641
90.456250
92.068946
93.718641
18199.289855
16944.524074
15952.245455
191478.666919
14021.407353
13523.670576
12881.177141
13191.768496
13523.670576
Kesimpulan
Nilai Minimal
MAD
90.456250
MSE
12881.177141
Kesimpulan
Dari tabel ringkasan dan tabel nilai minimal dapat dilihat bahwa nilai minimum MAD
yang berasal dari parameter N = 8; MSE = 12879.548708 yang berasal dari paramet
MAPE = 1.801% yang berasal dari parameter N = 8. Dengan demikian model terbai
dari parameter N = 8 yang menghasilkan error minimum MAP, MAD dan M
|x(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
Untuk t-1
Untuk t-2
0.030
0.003
0.014
0.041
0.018
0.018
0.025
0.017
0.007
0.017
0.036
0.029
0.033
0.063
0.037
0.045
0.027
0.020
0.026
0.036
0.010
0.005
0.019
0.052
0.018
0.010
0.002
0.005
0.009
0.023
0.018
0.033
0.013
0.054
0.041
0.008
0.015
N=3
Bobot
0.6666666667
0.3333333333
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
x(t)
5034
5015
4875
4936
4846
5087
5098
5187
5030
4999
5043
4945
5163
5242
5049
4809
5078
5224
5037
4997
4885
5106
5082
5114
5203
4917
5105
5091
5084
5110
5056
4960
5082
5211
5100
4875
5160
5025
5147
f(t)
4948.17
4928.83
4880.83
4981.5
5052.33
5140.67
5093.67
5040.67
5026.17
4986.67
5070.33
5166.17
5132.33
4961.17
4983.5
5106.17
5106.17
5048.17
4947.67
5014.17
5057.17
5102
5153.17
5045.17
5058.67
5066.67
5089.83
5098.17
5078.67
5017
5037
5126.17
5134
5006
5055
5045
0.001
0.018
0.042
0.010
0.003
0.016
0.028
0.012
0.027
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
1.033599
MAP
2.247%
5500
5400
5300
5200
5100
Data Aktual
5000
Data
Forec ast
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
kasan
MAP
5102
5209
4963
5098
5040
4980
4863
4845
4988
5108.5
5104.17
5163
5068.17
5071.5
5046.5
5019.67
4931.5
4873.5
4919.5
2470.17
831.333
831.333
831.333
831.333
831.333
831.333
831.333
831.333
831.333
831.333
Total
2.247%
2.140%
2.099%
8.346%
1.918%
1.863%
1.801%
1.833%
1.863%
lai Minimal
MAP
1.801%
Kesimpulan
nimal dapat dilihat bahwa nilai minimum MAD =90.449306

MSE = 12879.548708 yang berasal dari parameter N= 8 dan
rameter N = 8. Dengan demikian model terbaik dihasilkan
enghasilkan error minimum MAP, MAD dan MSE
N=3
|x(t)-f(t)|
(x(t)-f(t))2
Bobot
|x(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
Untuk t-1
Untuk t-2
Untuk t-3
12.166667
82.833333
206.166667
116.500000
134.666667
110.666667
94.666667
2.333333
81.166667
176.333333
171.666667
117.166667
323.333333
116.833333
240.500000
69.166667
109.166667
163.166667
158.333333
67.833333
56.833333
101.000000
236.166667
59.833333
32.333333
17.333333
20.166667
42.166667
118.666667
65.000000
174.000000
26.166667
259.000000
154.000000
30.000000
102.000000
148
6861
42505
13572
18135
12247
8962
5
6588
31093
29469
13728
104544
13650
57840
4784
11917
26623
25069
4601
3230
10201
55775
3580
1045
300
407
1778
14082
4225
30276
685
67081
23716
900
10404
0.002
0.017
0.041
0.023
0.026
0.022
0.019
0.000
0.016
0.034
0.033
0.023
0.067
0.023
0.046
0.014
0.022
0.033
0.031
0.013
0.011
0.019
0.048
0.012
0.006
0.003
0.004
0.008
0.024
0.013
0.033
0.005
0.053
0.030
0.006
0.020
0.5
0.3333333333
0.17
6.500000
104.833333
200.000000
29.833333
31.500000
66.500000
156.666667
86.500000
114.500000
42
10990
40000
890
992
4422
24544
7482
13110
0.001
0.020
0.040
0.006
0.006
0.013
0.032
0.018
0.023
4846.166667
762503.583333
0.962938
MAD
107.692593
MSE
16944.524074
MAP
2.140%
5500
5400
5300
5200
5100
Data Aktual
5000
Data
Forec ast
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
x(t)
5034
5015
4875
4936
4846
5087
5098
5187
5030
4999
5043
4945
5163
5242
5049
4809
5078
5224
5037
4997
4885
5106
5082
5114
5203
4917
5105
5091
5084
5110
5056
4960
5082
5211
5100
4875
5160
5025
5147
f(t)
4943.3
4895.7
4963.3
5028.1
5106.2
5096.4
5055.8
5041.6
4993.7
5057.2
5139
5119.3
5003
5007.9
5079.7
5078.5
5062.5
4982.9
5011
5041.3
5079.9
5142.4
5058.7
5069.1
5071.6
5073.6
5097.9
5081.3
5031.2
5043
5106.6
5115.7
5030.4
5067.6
5043
N=4
|x(t)-f(t)|
97.300000
191.300000
134.700000
158.900000
76.200000
97.400000
12.800000
96.600000
169.300000
184.800000
90.000000
310.300000
75.000000
216.100000
42.700000
81.500000
177.500000
123.100000
71.000000
72.700000
123.100000
225.400000
46.300000
21.900000
12.400000
36.400000
41.900000
121.300000
50.800000
168.000000
6.600000
240.700000
129.600000
42.600000
104.000000
(x(t)-f(t))2
|x(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
9467
36596
18144
25249
5806
9487
164
9332
28662
34151
8100
96286
5625
46699
1823
6642
31506
15154
5041
5285
15154
50805
2144
480
154
1325
1756
14714
2581
28224
44
57936
16796
1815
10816
0.020
0.038
0.026
0.031
0.015
0.019
0.003
0.020
0.033
0.035
0.018
0.065
0.015
0.041
0.008
0.016
0.036
0.024
0.014
0.014
0.024
0.046
0.009
0.004
0.002
0.007
0.008
0.024
0.010
0.032
0.001
0.049
0.025
0.008
0.020
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
5102
5209
4963
5098
5040
4980
4863
4845
4988
5085.8
5105.9
5146.1
5083
5080.1
5058.9
5019.9
4957
4896.9
4919.3
2951.7
1482.1
498.8
498.8
498.8
498.8
498.8
498.8
498.8
498.8
498.8
Total
16.200000
103.100000
183.100000
15.000000
40.100000
78.900000
156.900000
112.000000
91.100000
262
10630
33526
225
1608
6225
24618
12544
8299
0.003
0.020
0.037
0.003
0.008
0.016
0.032
0.023
0.018
4646.600000
701898.800000
0.923524
MAD
105.604545
MSE
15952.245455
MAP
2.099%
5500
5400
5300
5200
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
Data Aktual
Data
Forec ast
N=5
Bobot
Untuk t-1
Untuk t-2
Untuk t-3
Untuk t-4
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
x(t)
5034
5015
4875
4936
4846
5087
5098
5187
5030
4999
5043
4945
5163
5242
5049
4809
5078
5224
5037
4997
4885
5106
5082
5114
5203
4917
5105
5091
5084
5110
5056
4960
5082
5211
5100
4875
5160
5025
5147
f(t)
|x(t)-f(t)|
5314.7
5383.38
5433.03
5513.32
5499.97
5480.52
5471.78
5421.48
5480.38
5555.63
5529.75
5416.62
5451.17
5515.27
5485.22
5467.75
5410.42
5449.43
5458.17
5491.7
5554.52
5477.02
5499.55
5500.65
5499.4
5511.57
5505.27
5454.2
5471.63
5533.25
5529.4
5441.72
5503.6
5472.15
227.700000
285.383333
246.033333
483.316667
500.966667
437.516667
526.783333
258.483333
238.383333
506.633333
720.750000
338.616667
227.166667
478.266667
488.216667
582.750000
304.416667
367.433333
344.166667
288.700000
637.516667
372.016667
408.550000
416.650000
389.400000
455.566667
545.266667
372.200000
260.633333
433.250000
654.400000
281.716667
478.600000
325.150000
Aktual
ast
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
5102
5209
4963
5098
5040
4980
4863
4845
4988
5506.58
5516.37
5574.35
5498.65
5512.83
5486.73
5447.6
5372.85
5323.42
5342.93
3279.53
1967.8
988.067
332.533
332.533
332.533
332.533
332.533
332.533
332.533
332.533
Total
404.583333
307.366667
611.350000
400.650000
472.833333
506.733333
584.600000
527.850000
335.416667
18033.983333
MAD
419.394961
5500
5400
5300
5200
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
N=5
(x(t)-f(t))2
Bobot
|x(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
Untuk t-1
Untuk t-2
Untuk t-3
Untuk t-4
Untuk t-5
51847
81444
60532
233595
250968
191421
277501
66814
56827
256677
519481
114661
51605
228739
238356
339598
92670
135007
118451
83348
406428
138396
166913
173597
151632
207541
297316
138533
67930
187706
428239
79364
229058
105723
0.045
0.056
0.047
0.096
0.100
0.087
0.107
0.050
0.045
0.100
0.150
0.067
0.043
0.095
0.098
0.119
0.060
0.072
0.067
0.055
0.130
0.073
0.080
0.082
0.076
0.090
0.110
0.073
0.050
0.085
0.134
0.055
0.095
0.063
0.4166666667
0.2666666667
0.2
0.1333333333
0.0666666667
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
163688
94474
373749
160520
223571
256779
341757
278626
112504
0.079
0.059
0.123
0.079
0.094
0.102
0.120
0.109
0.067
8233582.677500
3.588818
MSE
191478.666919
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
MAP
8.346%
Data Aktual
Data
Forec ast
5500
5400
5300
5200
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
x(t)
5034
5015
4875
4936
4846
5087
5098
5187
5030
4999
5043
4945
5163
5242
5049
4809
5078
5224
5037
4997
4885
5106
5082
5114
5203
4917
5105
5091
5084
5110
5056
4960
5082
5211
5100
4875
5160
5025
5147
f(t)
N=6
|x(t)-f(t)|
(x(t)-f(t))2
Bobot
|x(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
Untuk t-1
Untuk t-2
Untuk t-3
Untuk t-4
Untuk t-5
Untuk t-6
4961.19
4999.05
5059.29
5066.48
5057.43
5057.95
5021.1
5053.29
5104.95
5098.86
5023.29
5033.62
5084
5067.67
5045.9
5003.81
5032.67
5040.52
5057.33
5104.81
5062.67
5078.05
5078.95
5078.57
5085.52
5077.24
5048.52
5052.62
5094.67
5099.29
5038.86
5071.05
5059.71
136.809524
187.952381
29.285714
67.476190
14.428571
112.952381
141.904762
188.714286
55.952381
289.857143
54.714286
190.380952
47.000000
70.666667
160.904762
102.190476
49.333333
73.476190
145.666667
187.809524
42.333333
12.952381
5.047619
31.428571
29.523810
117.238095
33.476190
158.380952
5.333333
224.285714
121.142857
46.047619
87.285714
18717
35326
858
4553
208
12758
20137
35613
3131
84017
2994
36245
2209
4994
25890
10443
2434
5399
21219
35272
1792
168
25
988
872
13745
1121
25085
28
50304
14676
2120
7619
0.027
0.036
0.006
0.013
0.003
0.023
0.027
0.036
0.011
0.060
0.011
0.036
0.009
0.014
0.033
0.020
0.010
0.014
0.028
0.038
0.008
0.003
0.001
0.006
0.006
0.024
0.007
0.030
0.001
0.046
0.023
0.009
0.017
5102
5209
4963
5098
5040
4980
4863
4845
4988
5080.14
5084.62
5124.86
5089.62
5088.76
5074.29
5041.95
4984.14
4932.57
4939.19
3519.48
2342.52
1405.57
705.762
237.524
237.524
237.524
237.524
237.524
237.524
237.524
Total
21.857143
124.380952
161.857143
8.380952
48.761905
94.285714
178.952381
139.142857
55.428571
478
15471
26198
70
2378
8890
32024
19361
3072
0.004
0.024
0.033
0.002
0.010
0.019
0.037
0.029
0.011
4055.000000
588899.108844
0.805593
MAD
96.547619
MSE
14021.407353
MAP
1.918%
Data Aktual
Data
Forec ast
Bobot
0.2857142857
0.2380952381
0.1904761905
0.1428571429
0.0952380952
0.0476190476
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
x(t)
5034
5015
4875
4936
4846
5087
5098
5187
5030
4999
5043
4945
5163
5242
5049
4809
5078
5224
5037
4997
4885
5106
5082
5114
5203
4917
5105
5091
5084
5110
5056
4960
5082
5211
5100
4875
5160
5025
5147
f(t)
4995.39
5046.04
5051.96
5049.61
5053.82
5029.71
5056.57
5100.46
5090.96
5026.39
5036.96
5081.21
5072.25
5050
5005.68
5029.36
5045
5058.89
5093.75
5057.86
5073.25
5081.29
5080.21
5086.43
5078.14
5047.93
5056.89
5092.21
5096
5043.21
5069.14
5059.54
N=7
|x(t)-f(t)|
191.607143
16.035714
52.964286
6.607143
108.821429
133.285714
185.428571
51.464286
281.964286
51.607143
187.035714
44.214286
75.250000
165.000000
100.321429
52.642857
69.000000
144.107143
176.750000
47.142857
17.750000
2.714286
29.785714
30.428571
118.142857
34.071429
154.107143
7.785714
221.000000
116.785714
44.142857
87.464286
(x(t)-f(t))2
36713
257
2805
44
11842
17765
34384
2649
79504
2663
34982
1955
5663
27225
10064
2771
4761
20767
31241
2222
315
7
887
926
13958
1161
23749
61
48841
13639
1949
7650
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
5102
5209
4963
5098
5040
4980
4863
4845
4988
5081.54
5085.61
5115.71
5084.39
5091.71
5076.57
5050.71
4997.21
4949.36
4946.43
3704.39
2639.61
1756.89
1054.18
529.321
178.143
178.143
178.143
178.143
178.143
178.143
Total
20.464286
123.392857
152.714286
13.607143
51.714286
96.571429
187.714286
152.214286
38.642857
419
15226
23322
185
2674
9326
35237
23169
1493
3842.464286
554470.493622
MAD
93.718641
5500
5400
5300
5200
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
MSE
13523.670576
Data Aktual
Data
Forec ast
Bobot
|x(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
Untuk t-1
Untuk t-2
Untuk t-3
Untuk t-4
Untuk t-5
Untuk t-6
Untuk t-7
0.037
0.003
0.011
0.001
0.022
0.026
0.035
0.010
0.059
0.010
0.036
0.009
0.015
0.034
0.020
0.010
0.013
0.028
0.036
0.009
0.003
0.001
0.006
0.006
0.024
0.007
0.030
0.002
0.045
0.023
0.009
0.017
0.25
0.2142857143
0.1785714286
0.1428571429
0.1071428571
0.0714285714
0.0357142857
N=
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
x(t)
5034
5015
4875
4936
4846
5087
5098
5187
5030
4999
5043
4945
5163
5242
5049
4809
5078
5224
5037
4997
4885
5106
5082
5114
5203
4917
5105
5091
5084
5110
5056
4960
5082
5211
5100
4875
5160
5025
5147
f(t)
5037.97
5042.47
5040.19
5048.14
5029.64
5059.33
5097.78
5089.03
5028.31
5037.86
5078.53
5071.39
5055.53
5013.33
5027.97
5041.06
5060.33
5090.92
5054.47
5068.33
5077.19
5081.89
5086.83
5079.67
5051.89
5055.5
5091.14
5093.94
5046.89
5069.17
5059.33
0.004
0.024
0.031
0.003
0.010
0.019
0.039
0.031
0.008
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
0.763803
MAP
1.863%
Data Aktual
Data
Forec ast
5500
5400
5300
5200
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
5102
5209
4963
5098
5040
4980
4863
4845
4988
5078.97
5086.08
5113.03
5081.78
5087.42
5080.22
5055.11
5009
4963.39
4957.94
3847.22
2881.19
2053.03
1366.47
819.917
411.694
138.556
138.556
138.556
138.556
138.556
Total
N=8
|x(t)-f(t)|
(x(t)-f(t))2
Bobot
|x(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
Untuk t-1
Untuk t-2
Untuk t-3
Untuk t-4
Untuk t-5
Untuk t-6
Untuk t-7
Untuk t-8
7.972222
43.472222
2.805556
103.138889
133.361111
182.666667
48.777778
280.027778
49.694444
186.138889
41.527778
74.388889
170.527778
92.666667
54.027778
72.944444
142.666667
173.916667
50.527778
22.666667
6.805556
28.111111
30.833333
119.666667
30.111111
155.500000
8.861111
218.944444
113.111111
44.166667
87.666667
64
1890
8
10638
17785
33367
2379
78416
2470
34648
1725
5534
29080
8587
2919
5321
20354
30247
2553
514
46
790
951
14320
907
24180
79
47937
12794
1951
7685
0.002
0.009
0.001
0.021
0.026
0.035
0.010
0.058
0.010
0.036
0.008
0.015
0.035
0.018
0.011
0.014
0.027
0.035
0.010
0.004
0.001
0.006
0.006
0.024
0.006
0.030
0.002
0.045
0.022
0.009
0.017
0.2222222222
0.1944444444
0.1666666667
0.1388888889
0.1111111111
0.0833333333
0.0555555556
0.0277777778
23.027778
122.916667
150.027778
16.222222
47.416667
100.222222
192.111111
164.000000
24.611111
530
15109
22508
263
2248
10044
36907
26896
606
0.005
0.024
0.030
0.003
0.009
0.020
0.040
0.034
0.005
3618.250000
515247.085648
0.720469
MAD
90.456250
MSE
12881.177141
MAP
1.801%
Data Aktual
Data
Forec ast
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
x(t)
5034
5015
4875
4936
4846
5087
5098
5187
5030
4999
5043
4945
5163
5242
5049
4809
5078
5224
5037
4997
4885
5106
5082
5114
5203
4917
5105
5091
5084
5110
5056
4960
5082
5211
5100
4875
5160
5025
5147
f(t)
5036.38
5033.78
5040.76
5027.51
5056.31
5095.87
5088.02
5033.02
5038.24
5075.09
5070.22
5056.51
5021.42
5031.87
5038.78
5055.64
5088.87
5056.13
5064.58
5072.87
5078.56
5087.51
5080.67
5055.73
5057.91
5086.6
5092.91
5050.16
5069.51
5060.33
N=9
|x(t)-f(t)|
37.377778
9.222222
95.755556
135.488889
185.688889
46.866667
279.022222
44.977778
185.755556
38.088889
73.222222
171.511111
84.577778
50.133333
75.222222
147.355556
171.866667
48.866667
26.422222
11.133333
31.444444
31.511111
120.666667
26.266667
153.088889
13.400000
217.911111
109.844444
44.511111
86.666667
(x(t)-f(t))2
1397
85
9169
18357
34480
2196
77853
2023
34505
1451
5361
29416
7153
2513
5658
21714
29538
2388
698
124
989
993
14560
690
23436
180
47485
12066
1981
7511
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
5102
5209
4963
5098
5040
4980
4863
4845
4988
5076.87
5083.58
5110.67
5083.02
5085.02
5077.93
5060.18
5016.69
4976.2
4968.31
3966.36
3077.78
2304.96
1642.42
1093.18
655.933
329.356
110.844
110.844
110.844
110.844
Total
25.133333
125.422222
147.666667
14.977778
45.022222
97.933333
197.177778
171.688889
11.800000
632
15731
21805
224
2027
9591
38879
29477
139
3590.688889
514478.971358
MAD
92.068946
5500
5400
5300
5200
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
MSE
13191.768496
Data Aktual
Data
Forec ast
Bobot
|x(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
Untuk t-1
Untuk t-2
Untuk t-3
Untuk t-4
Untuk t-5
Untuk t-6
Untuk t-7
Untuk t-8
Untuk t-9
0.007
0.002
0.019
0.026
0.035
0.009
0.058
0.009
0.036
0.008
0.015
0.035
0.017
0.010
0.015
0.028
0.035
0.010
0.005
0.002
0.006
0.006
0.024
0.005
0.029
0.003
0.045
0.021
0.009
0.017
0.2
0.1777777778
0.1555555556
0.1333333333
0.1111111111
0.0888888889
0.0666666667
0.0444444444
0.0222222222
N=1
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
x(t)
5034
5015
4875
4936
4846
5087
5098
5187
5030
4999
5043
4945
5163
5242
5049
4809
5078
5224
5037
4997
4885
5106
5082
5114
5203
4917
5105
5091
5084
5110
5056
4960
5082
5211
5100
4875
5160
5025
5147
f(t)
5029.58
5035.45
5023.35
5052.15
5090.07
5087.35
5037.29
5041.2
5072.02
5068.16
5056.91
5025.33
5036.8
5040.98
5052.45
5082.44
5057.62
5065.02
5069.38
5074.89
5084.27
5081.78
5058.73
5060.51
5085.75
5089.04
5053.29
5070.13
5061.42
0.005
0.024
0.030
0.003
0.009
0.020
0.041
0.035
0.002
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
0.714958
MAP
1.833%
5500
5400
5300
5200
Data Aktual
Data
Forec ast
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
5102
5209
4963
5098
5040
4980
4863
4845
4988
5076.09
5081.44
5106.38
5083.82
5085.75
5076.84
5060.13
5024.33
4985.47
4978.35
4064.98
3245.2
2518.18
1885.87
1343.8
894.418
536.673
269.473
90.6909
90.6909
90.6909
Total
N=10
|x(t)-f(t)|
(x(t)-f(t))2
|x(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
Bobot
Untuk t-1
Untuk t-2
Untuk t-3
Untuk t-4
Untuk t-5
Untuk t-6
Untuk t-7
Untuk t-8
Untuk t-9
Untuk t-10
13.418182
90.454545
139.654545
189.854545
41.072727
278.345455
40.709091
182.800000
35.018182
71.163636
171.909091
80.672727
45.200000
73.018182
150.545455
165.436364
47.381818
25.981818
14.618182
35.109091
28.272727
121.781818
23.272727
150.490909
14.254545
214.036364
106.709091
45.127273
85.581818
180
8182
19503
36045
1687
77476
1657
33416
1226
5064
29553
6508
2043
5332
22664
27369
2245
675
214
1233
799
14831
542
22648
203
45812
11387
2036
7324
0.003
0.018
0.027
0.036
0.008
0.058
0.008
0.035
0.007
0.014
0.035
0.016
0.009
0.014
0.029
0.034
0.009
0.005
0.003
0.007
0.006
0.025
0.005
0.029
0.003
0.044
0.021
0.009
0.017
0.1818181818
0.1636363636
0.1454545455
0.1272727273
0.1090909091
0.0909090909
0.0727272727
0.0545454545
0.0363636364
0.0181818182
25.909091
127.563636
143.381818
14.181818
45.745455
96.836364
197.127273
179.327273
2.527273
671
16272
20558
201
2093
9377
38859
32158
6
0.005
0.024
0.029
0.003
0.009
0.019
0.041
0.037
0.001
3514.490909
508050.631736
0.699720
MAD
MSE
92.4866028708 13369.7534667247
MAP
1.841%
Data Aktual
Data
Forec ast
Single Exponential Smoothing

Parameter
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
= 0.1
D(t)
5034
5015
4875
4936
4846
5087
5098
5187
5030
4999
5043
4945
5163
5242
5049
4809
5078
5224
5037
4997
4885
5106
5082
5114
5203
4917
5105
5091
5084
5110
5056
4960
5082
5211
5100
4875
5160
5025
5147
5102
f(t)
5034
5034
5032.1
5016.39
5008.351
4992.1159
5001.60431
5011.243879
5028.8194911
5028.93754199
5025.943787791
5027.649409012
5019.384468111
5033.7460213
5054.57141917
5054.014277253
5029.512849527
5034.361564575
5053.325408117
5051.692867306
5046.223580575
5030.101222517
5037.691100266
5042.121990239
5049.309791215
5064.678812094
5049.910930884
5055.419837796
5058.977854016
5061.480068615
5066.332061753
5065.298855578
5054.76897002
5057.492073018
5072.842865716
5075.558579145
5055.50272123
5065.952449107
5061.857204196
5070.371483777
|D(t)-f(t)|
(D(t)-f(t))2
19
157.1
80.39
162.351
94.8841
96.39569
175.756121
1.1805089
29.93754199
17.056212209
82.6494090119
143.6155318893
208.2539787004
5.5714191697
245.0142772527
48.4871504726
189.6384354253
16.3254081172
54.6928673055
161.223580575
75.8987774825
44.3088997343
71.8780097609
153.6902087848
147.6788120937
55.0890691157
35.5801622041
25.0221459837
48.5199313853
10.3320617532
105.2988555779
27.2310299799
153.5079269819
27.1571342837
200.5585791447
104.4972787698
40.9524491072
85.1427958035
31.6285162232
361
24680.41
6462.5521
26357.847201
9002.99243281
9292.12905058
30890.214069
1.393601263
896.256420403
290.914374918
6830.92481002
20625.4209998
43369.7196445
31.0407115642
60031.9960577
2351.00376095
35962.7361906
266.518950194
2991.3097341
25993.0429334
5760.62442334
1963.27859566
5166.44828718
23620.6802763
21809.0315414
3034.80553603
1265.94794247
626.107789629
2354.18374164
106.751500072
11087.848986
741.528993766
23564.6836463
737.509942504
40223.7436685
10919.6812703
1677.10308788
7249.29567724
1000.36303848
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
5209
4963
5098
5040
4980
4863
4845
4988
5073.534335399
5087.080901859
5074.672811673
5077.005530506
5073.304977455
5063.97447971
5043.877031739
5023.989328565
5020.390395708
5020.390395708
5020.390395708
5020.390395708
5020.390395708
5020.390395708
5020.390395708
5020.390395708
5020.390395708
5020.390395708
5020.390395708
5020.390395708
Total
135.4656646009
124.0809018592
23.3271883267
37.005530506
93.3049774554
200.9744797098
198.8770317388
35.989328565
18350.9462858
15396.0702062
544.15771523
1369.40928803
8705.81881795
40390.7414946
39552.0737533
1295.23177056
4282.5209789502 595203.490319
MAD
MSE
91.1174676372 12663.9040493
Visualisasi
= 0.1
Single Moving Average dengan = 0.1
5300
5200
5100
5000
D(t
)
4900
f(t)
4800
4700
Ringkasan
Ringkasan
0.1
MAD
MSE
91.1174676372 12663.9040493
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
93.1514171474
96.7369538241
100.3734698488
103.5424638817
106.3291955813
109.5981742878
112.42818241
114.8980951646
13143.0187116
13736.0253505
14436.9187343
15220.1128196
16043.0760155
16959.3810442
17952.9680563
19066.8789495
Kesimpulan
Nilai Minimal
MAD
MSE
91.1174676372 12663.9040493
Kesimpulan
Dari tabel ringkasan dan tabel nilai minimal dapat dilihat bahwa nilai minimum
MAD =91.10981545 yang berasal dari parameter = 0.1; MSE = 12662.572
yang berasal dari parameter = 0.1 dan MAPE = 1.814% yang berasal dari
parameter = 0.1. Dengan demikian model terbaik dihasilkan dari parameter
= 0.1 yang menghasilkan error minimum MAP, MAD dan MSE
= 0.2
|(D(t)-f(t))/D(t)|
0.0037886341
0.032225641
0.0162864668
0.0335020636
0.0186522705
0.0189085308
0.0338839639
0.0002346936
0.0059887061
0.0033821559
0.0167137329
0.0278162952
0.0397279624
0.0011034698
0.0509491115
0.0095484739
0.036301385
0.0032410975
0.0109451405
0.0330038036
0.0148646254
0.0087187918
0.0140551447
0.0295387678
0.0300343323
0.0107911987
0.0069888356
0.0049217439
0.0094950942
0.0020435249
0.021229608
0.0053583294
0.0294584393
0.0053249283
0.0411402214
0.0202514106
0.0081497411
0.016542218
0.0061992388
f(t)
5034
5034
5030.2
4999.16
4986.528
4958.4224
4984.13792
5006.910336
5042.9282688
5040.34261504
5032.074092032
5034.2592736256
5016.4074189005
5045.7259351204
5084.9807480963
5077.7845984771
5024.0276787816
5034.8221430253
5072.6577144203
5065.5261715362
5051.820937229
5018.4567497832
5035.9653998265
5045.1723198612
5058.937855889
5087.7502847112
5053.600227769
5063.8801822152
5069.3041457721
5072.2433166177
5079.7946532942
5075.0357226353
5052.0285781083
5058.0228624866
5088.6182899893
5090.8946319914
5047.7157055932
5070.1725644745
5061.1380515796
5078.3104412637
|D(t)-f(t)|
(D(t)-f(t))2
|(D(t)-f(t))/D(t)|
19
155.2
63.16
140.528
128.5776
113.86208
180.089664
12.9282688
41.34261504
10.925907968
89.259273626
146.5925811
196.27406488
35.980748096
268.78459848
53.972321218
189.17785697
35.65771442
68.526171536
166.82093723
87.543250217
46.034600173
68.827680139
144.06214411
170.75028471
51.399772231
27.119817785
14.695854228
37.756683382
23.794653294
115.03572264
29.971421892
152.97713751
11.381710011
215.89463199
112.28429441
45.172564475
85.86194842
23.689558736
361
24087.0400000002
3989.1856000001
19748.1187840003
16532.1992217597
12964.5732619262
32432.2870796326
167.1401341651
1709.2118183457
119.3754649252
7967.2179281699
21489.3848334192
38523.5085443674
1294.61423357
72245.1603784671
2913.0114576981
35788.261569536
1271.472597676
4695.8361854086
27829.2250979487
7663.8206585268
2119.1844131308
4737.2495532851
20753.9013658634
29155.6597289512
2641.9365854039
735.4845166829
215.9681314869
1425.5671400311
566.1855253894
13233.2174822325
898.2861302124
23402.0046017902
129.5433227679
46610.4921227159
12607.7627704451
2040.5605812044
7372.2741865451
561.195193121
0.0037886341
0.0318358974
0.0127957861
0.0289987619
0.0252757224
0.0223346567
0.0347194263
0.0025702324
0.008270177
0.0021665493
0.0180504092
0.0283929074
0.0374425915
0.0071263118
0.0558919939
0.0106286572
0.0362132192
0.0070791571
0.0137134624
0.0341496289
0.0171451724
0.0090583629
0.0134586782
0.0276882845
0.0347265171
0.0100685156
0.0053270119
0.0028906086
0.0073887834
0.004706221
0.023192686
0.0058975643
0.0293565798
0.0022317078
0.0442860784
0.0217605222
0.0089895651
0.0166819406
0.0046431907
0.0260060788
0.0250011892
0.0045757529
0.0073423672
0.0187359392
0.0413272629
0.041047891
0.0072151822
0.852561456
5083.048353011
5108.2386824088
5079.190945927
5082.9527567416
5074.3622053933
5055.4897643146
5016.9918114517
4982.5934491614
4983.6747593291
4983.6747593291
4983.6747593291
4983.6747593291
4983.6747593291
4983.6747593291
4983.6747593291
4983.6747593291
4983.6747593291
4983.6747593291
4983.6747593291
4983.6747593291
Total
MAP
1.814%
125.95164699
145.23868241
18.809054073
42.952756742
94.362205393
192.48976431
171.99181145
5.4065508386
15863.8173792535
21094.2748678334
353.7805151207
1844.9393117038
8904.2258066849
37052.3093659017
29581.1832064385
29.2307919708
0.0241796212
0.0292642922
0.0036894967
0.0085223724
0.018948234
0.0395825137
0.0354988259
0.0010839116
4378.1166059 617721.879445709
0.8717114404
MAD
MSE
93.151417147 13143.0187116108
MAP
1.855%
= 0.2
dengan = 0.1
5300
5200
5100
D(t
)
f(t)
5000
4900
4800
4700
n
MAP
1.814%
D(t
)
f(t)
1.855%
1.926%
1.997%
2.059%
2.114%
2.178%
2.234%
2.282%
ai Minimal
MAP
1.814%
ulan
mal dapat dilihat bahwa nilai minimum

arameter = 0.1; MSE = 12662.572
MAPE = 1.814% yang berasal dari
del terbaik dihasilkan dari parameter
inimum MAP, MAD dan MSE
= 0.3
f(t)
5034
5034
5028.3
4982.31
4968.417
4931.6919
4978.28433
5014.199031
5066.0393217
5055.22752519
5038.359267633
5039.7514873431
5011.3260411402
5056.8282287981
5112.3797601587
5093.3658321111
5008.0560824778
5029.0392577344
5087.5274804141
5072.3692362899
5049.7584654029
5000.330925782
5032.0316480474
5047.0221536332
5067.1155075432
5107.8808552803
5050.6165986962
5066.9316190873
5074.1521333611
5077.1064933528
5086.974545347
5077.6821817429
5042.37752722
5054.264269054
5101.2849883378
5100.8994918365
5033.1296442855
5071.1907509999
5057.3335256999
5084.2334679899
|D(t)-f(t)|
(D(t)-f(t))2
|(D(t)-f(t))/D(t)|
19
153.3
46.31
122.417
155.3081
119.71567
172.800969
36.0393217
56.22752519
4.640732367
94.7514873431
151.6739588598
185.1717712019
63.3797601587
284.3658321111
69.9439175222
194.9607422656
50.5274804141
75.3692362899
164.7584654029
105.669074218
49.9683519526
66.9778463668
135.8844924568
190.8808552803
54.3834013038
24.0683809127
9.8478666389
32.8935066472
30.974545347
117.6821817429
39.62247278
156.735730946
1.2849883378
225.8994918365
126.8703557145
46.1907509999
89.6664743001
17.7665320101
361
23500.8899999998
2144.6161
14985.9218889999
24120.6059256101
14331.841643549
29860.1748873392
1298.832708596
3161.534588992
21.5363969021
8977.8443537295
23004.9897962135
34288.584850042
4016.9939977722
80863.9264722257
4892.1515983588
38009.691024743
2553.0262769972
5680.5217789181
27145.3519219215
11165.9532460815
2496.8361968563
4486.031903935
18464.5952902318
36435.5009125261
2957.5543373717
579.2869597574
96.980477337
1081.98277955
959.4224594505
13849.0958997612
1569.9403492013
24566.0893551753
1.6511950283
51030.580411972
16096.0871591178
2133.5854779317
8040.0766134094
315.6496596647
0.0037886341
0.0314461538
0.0093820908
0.0252614527
0.0305303912
0.0234828698
0.0333142412
0.0071648751
0.0112477546
0.0009202325
0.0191610692
0.0293770984
0.0353246416
0.0125529333
0.0591320092
0.0137739105
0.0373202033
0.0100312647
0.015082897
0.0337274238
0.0206950792
0.0098324187
0.0130969586
0.0261165659
0.0388205929
0.0106529679
0.0047276333
0.0019370312
0.0064370854
0.0061262946
0.0237262463
0.0077966298
0.0300778605
0.0002519585
0.0463383573
0.0245872782
0.0091921893
0.0174211141
0.0034822681
5089.563427593
5125.3943993151
5076.6760795206
5083.0732556644
5070.1512789651
5043.1058952756
4989.0741266929
4945.851888685
4958.4963220795
4958.4963220795
4958.4963220795
4958.4963220795
4958.4963220795
4958.4963220795
4958.4963220795
4958.4963220795
4958.4963220795
4958.4963220795
4958.4963220795
4958.4963220795
Total
119.436572407
162.3943993151
21.3239204795
43.0732556644
90.1512789651
180.1058952755
144.0741266929
42.148111315
14265.0948283437
26371.9409289014
454.7095846141
1855.3053535293
8127.2530990375
32438.1335130065
20757.3539823168
1776.4632874201
0.022928887
0.0327210154
0.0041828012
0.0085462809
0.0181026665
0.0370359645
0.0297366619
0.008449902
4546.6368297322 645593.191472438
0.9050428559
MAD
MSE
96.7369538241 13736.0253504774
MAP
1.926%
= 0.3
Single M
5300
5200
5100
D(t
)
f(t)
5300
5000
5100
D(t
)
4900
4700
f(t)
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59
4900
4800
4700
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 1
= 0.4
f(t)
5034
5034
5026.4
4965.84
4953.904
4910.7424
4981.24544
5027.947264
5091.5683584
5066.94101504
5039.764609024
5041.0587654144
5002.6352592486
5066.7811555492
5136.8686933295
5101.7212159977
4984.6327295986
5021.9796377592
5102.7877826555
5076.4726695933
5044.683601756
4980.8101610536
5030.8860966322
5051.3316579793
5076.3989947876
5127.0393968726
5043.0236381235
5067.8141828741
5077.0885097245
5079.8531058347
5091.9118635008
5077.5471181005
5030.5282708603
5051.1169625162
5115.0701775097
5109.0421065058
5015.4252639035
5073.2551583421
5053.9530950053
5091.1718570032
=
|D(t)-f(t)|
(D(t)-f(t))2
|(D(t)-f(t))/D(t)|
19
151.4
29.84
107.904
176.2576
116.75456
159.052736
61.5683584
67.94101504
3.235390976
96.0587654144
160.3647407514
175.2188444508
87.8686933295
292.7212159977
93.3672704014
202.0203622408
65.7877826555
79.4726695933
159.683601756
125.1898389464
51.1139033678
62.6683420207
126.6010052124
210.0393968725
61.9763618765
23.1858171259
6.9114902755
30.1468941653
35.9118635008
117.5471181005
51.4717291397
159.8830374838
15.0701775097
234.0421065058
144.5747360965
48.2551583421
93.0469049947
10.8281429968
361
22921.9599999999
890.4256
11643.2732160001
31066.74155776
13631.6272807935
25297.7728290856
3790.6627560708
4615.9815246655
10.4677547676
9227.2864129388
25716.8500762509
30701.6434506791
7720.9072674355
85685.7102951758
8717.4471822037
40812.2267599143
4328.032346728
6315.9052122863
25498.852669763
15672.4957754284
2612.6311174976
3927.3210916245
16027.8145207964
44116.5482385828
3841.0694314434
537.5821157949
47.7686978287
908.8352278149
1289.6619401007
13817.3249737294
2649.3389006316
25562.5856750543
227.110250174
54775.7076176833
20901.8543173744
2328.5603066208
8657.7265291006
117.2486807601
0.0037886341
0.0310564103
0.0060453809
0.0222666116
0.0346486338
0.0229020322
0.0306637239
0.0122402303
0.0135909212
0.0006415608
0.0194254328
0.0310603798
0.0334259528
0.0174031874
0.0608694564
0.0183866228
0.0386715854
0.0130609058
0.0159040764
0.0326885572
0.0245181823
0.0100578322
0.012254271
0.0243323093
0.0427169813
0.0121403255
0.0045542756
0.0013594591
0.0058995879
0.0071028211
0.0236990157
0.0101282426
0.0306818341
0.0029549368
0.0480086372
0.0280183597
0.0096030166
0.018077891
0.002122333
f(t)
5034
5034
5024.5
4949.75
4942.875
4894.4375
4990.71875
5044.359375
5115.6796875
5072.8398438
5035.9199219
5039.4599609
4992.2299805
5077.6149902
5159.8074951
5104.4037476
4956.7018738
5017.3509369
5120.6754684
5078.8377342
5037.9188671
4961.4594336
5033.7297168
5057.8648584
5085.9324292
5144.4662146
5030.7331073
5067.8665536
5079.4332768
5081.7166384
5095.8583192
5075.9291596
5017.9645798
5049.9822899
5130.491145
5115.2455725
4995.1227862
5077.5613931
5051.2806966
5099.1403483
5095.5031142019
5140.9018685211
5069.7411211127
5081.0446726676
5064.6268036006
5030.7760821603
4963.6656492962
4916.1993895777
4944.9196337466
4944.9196337466
4944.9196337466
4944.9196337466
4944.9196337466
4944.9196337466
4944.9196337466
4944.9196337466
4944.9196337466
4944.9196337466
4944.9196337466
4944.9196337466
Total
113.4968857981
177.9018685211
28.2588788873
41.0446726676
84.6268036006
167.7760821603
118.6656492962
71.8006104223
12881.5430858685
31649.0748233115
798.5642359681
1684.6651543912
7161.6958876488
28148.8137450727
14081.5363228894
5155.3276570118
0.0217886131
0.0358456314
0.0055431304
0.0081437843
0.0169933341
0.034500531
0.0244923941
0.0143946693
4717.553082894
678535.180512721
0.9386726956
MAD
MSE
100.3734698488 14436.9187343132
5100.5701741
5154.7850871
5058.8925435
5078.4462718
5059.2231359
5019.6115679
4941.305784
4893.152892
4940.576446
2470.288223
1235.1441115
617.57205575
308.78602787
154.39301394
77.196506969
38.598253484
19.299126742
9.6495633711
4.8247816855
2.4123908428
Total
MAP
1.997%
= 0.4
= 0.5
Single Moving Ave
5300
5300
5200
5200
5100
5100
5000
4900
D(t
)
4800
f(t)
4700
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59
5000
4900
4800
4700
0.5
= 0.6
|D(t)-f(t)|
(D(t)-f(t))2
|(D(t)-f(t))/D(t)|
19
149.5
13.75
96.875
192.5625
107.28125
142.640625
85.6796875
73.83984375
7.080078125
94.459960938
170.77001953
164.38500977
110.80749512
295.40374756
121.29812622
206.64906311
83.675468445
81.837734222
152.91886711
144.54056644
48.270283222
56.135141611
117.06757081
227.4662146
74.266892701
23.133446351
4.5667231753
28.283361588
39.858319206
115.9291596
64.035420198
161.0177101
30.49114495
240.24557248
164.87721376
52.561393119
95.719303441
2.8596517203
361
22350.25
189.0625
9384.765625
37080.316406
11509.266602
20346.3479
7341.0088501
5452.322525
50.127506256
8922.6842203
29162.399571
27022.431436
12278.300974
87263.374072
14713.235425
42703.835284
7001.5840195
6697.4147427
23384.179919
20891.975348
2330.0202424
3151.1541237
13704.816134
51740.878783
5515.5713515
535.15634006
20.85496056
799.9485427
1588.6856099
13439.570046
4100.53504
25926.702966
929.70992039
57717.935094
27184.495618
2762.7000466
9162.1850512
8.1776079614
0.0037886341
0.0306666667
0.0027856564
0.019990714
0.0378538431
0.0210437917
0.0274996385
0.0170337351
0.0147709229
0.0014039417
0.0191021155
0.0330757349
0.0313592159
0.0219464241
0.0614272713
0.0238869882
0.0395576308
0.0166121637
0.0163773733
0.0313037599
0.028307984
0.0094982848
0.0109767582
0.0225000136
0.0462611785
0.0145478732
0.0045439887
0.000898254
0.0055349044
0.0078833701
0.0233728144
0.0126004369
0.0308995798
0.0059786559
0.0492811431
0.0319529484
0.0104599787
0.0185971058
0.0005604962
f(t)
5015
5026.4
5019.56
4932.824
4934.7296
4881.49184
5004.796736
5060.7186944
5136.48747776
5072.594991104
5028.4379964416
5037.1751985766
4981.8700794307
5090.5480317723
5181.4192127089
5101.9676850836
4926.1870740334
5017.2748296134
5141.3099318454
5078.7239727381
5029.6895890953
4942.8758356381
5040.7503342553
5065.5001337021
5094.6000534808
5159.6400213923
5014.0560085569
5068.6224034228
5082.0489613691
5083.2195845477
5099.2878338191
5073.3151335276
5005.3260534111
5051.3304213644
5147.1321685458
5118.8528674183
4972.5411469673
5085.0164587869
5049.0065835148
5107.8026334059
|D(t)-f(t)|
11.4
144.56
3.176
88.7296
205.50816
93.203264
126.2813056
106.48747776
73.594991104
14.5620035584
92.1751985766
181.1299205693
151.4519682277
132.4192127089
292.9676850836
151.8129259666
206.7251703866
104.3099318453
81.7239727381
144.6895890953
163.1241643619
41.2496657448
48.4998662979
108.3999465192
242.6400213923
90.9439914431
22.3775965772
1.9510386309
26.7804154524
43.2878338191
113.3151335276
76.673946589
159.6695786356
47.1321685458
243.8528674183
187.4588530327
60.0164587869
97.9934164852
5.8026334059
108.42982586
191.78508707
39.107456465
38.446271767
79.223135884
156.61156794
96.305783971
94.847108015
11757.027136
36781.519622
1529.3931512
1478.1158128
6276.3052593
24527.183213
9274.8040263
8995.9738987
0.0208158621
0.0386429754
0.007671137
0.0076282285
0.0159082602
0.032204723
0.0198773548
0.0190150577
4866.4958024 715345.30252
0.9679055892
MAD
103.54246388
MSE
15220.11282
5104.3210533624
5167.128421345
5044.651368538
5076.6605474152
5054.6642189661
5009.8656875864
4921.7462750346
4875.6985100138
4943.0794040055
4943.0794040055
4943.0794040055
4943.0794040055
4943.0794040055
4943.0794040055
4943.0794040055
4943.0794040055
4943.0794040055
4943.0794040055
4943.0794040055
4943.0794040055
Total
MAP
2.059%
= 0.6
5300
5200
5200
5100
4900
4800
4700
4997.4721923192
MAD
106.3291955813
5300
5000
104.6789466376
204.1284213449
53.348631462
36.6605474152
74.6642189661
146.8656875864
76.7462750346
112.3014899862
5100
D(t
)
f(t)
5000
4900
4800
4700
= 0.7
(D(t)-f(t))2
|(D(t)-f(t))/D(t)|
129.96
20897.5936
10.086976
7872.9419162
42233.603827
8686.8484203
15946.968144
11339.58292
5416.2227156
212.05194763
8496.2672326
32808.048125
22937.69868
17534.847894
85830.064503
23047.164491
42735.296071
10880.561882
6678.8077201
20935.077193
26609.492999
1701.5349241
2352.2370309
11750.548405
58874.179981
8270.8095796
500.75682857
3.8065517392
717.1906518
1873.8365567
12840.319486
5878.8940855
25494.374342
2221.4413118
59464.220948
35140.82158
3601.9753253
9602.7096744
33.670554443
0.0022731805
0.0296533333
0.000643436
0.0183098638
0.0403986947
0.0182823193
0.0243457308
0.0211704727
0.0147219426
0.0028875676
0.0186400806
0.0350823011
0.0288920199
0.0262268197
0.0609207081
0.0298962044
0.0395721995
0.0207087417
0.0163546073
0.0296191585
0.0319475449
0.0081168173
0.0094837439
0.0208341239
0.0493471673
0.0178146898
0.0043955208
0.0003837605
0.0052407858
0.008561676
0.022845793
0.0150873567
0.030640871
0.0092416017
0.050021101
0.0363292351
0.0119435739
0.0190389385
0.0011373252
f(t)
5015
5028.3
5018.99
4918.197
4930.6591
4871.39773
5022.319319
5075.2957957
5153.4887387
5067.0466216
5019.4139865
5035.9241959
4972.2772588
5105.7831776
5201.1349533
5094.640486
4894.6921458
5023.0076437
5163.7022931
5075.0106879
5020.4032064
4925.6209619
5051.8862886
5072.9658866
5101.689766
5172.6069298
4993.6820789
5071.6046237
5085.1813871
5084.3544161
5102.3063248
5069.8918975
4992.9675692
5055.2902708
5164.2870812
5119.2861244
4948.2858373
5096.4857512
5046.4457254
5116.8337176
|D(t)-f(t)|
(D(t)-f(t))2
13.3
143.99
17.803
84.6591
215.60227
75.680681
111.7042043
123.48873871
68.046621613
23.586013516
90.924195945
190.72274122
136.21682236
152.13495329
285.64048599
183.3078542
200.99235626
126.70229312
78.010687936
135.40320638
180.37903809
30.113711426
41.034113428
101.31023403
255.60692979
111.31792106
19.395376319
1.1813871044
25.645583869
46.306324839
109.89189745
89.032430764
155.70972923
64.287081231
244.28612437
211.71416269
71.485751193
100.55427464
14.833717607
176.89
20733.1201
316.946809
7167.1632128
46484.338829
5727.5654766
12477.829258
15249.468588
4630.3427129
556.30003358
8267.2094083
36375.164017
18555.022695
23145.044013
81590.487235
33601.769413
40397.927275
16053.471082
6085.6674323
18334.028298
32536.597381
906.83561583
1683.7984648
10263.763519
65334.902557
12391.67955
376.18062255
1.3956754904
657.69597197
2144.2757201
12076.229126
7926.7737278
24245.519777
4132.8288132
59675.710559
44822.886683
5110.2126237
10111.162149
220.03917806
10957.681869
41668.412401
2846.0764789
1343.9957368
5574.7455938
21569.53019
5889.9907317
12611.624653
0.0200957855
0.0411300466
0.0104646197
0.0072739181
0.0149928151
0.0302006349
0.0158403044
0.0225143324
754024.57273
0.9935234653
MSE
16043.076016
MAP
5106.4501153
5178.2350346
5027.5705104
5076.8711531
5051.0613459
5001.3184038
4904.4955211
4862.8486563
4950.4545969
4950.4545969
4950.4545969
4950.4545969
4950.4545969
4950.4545969
4950.4545969
4950.4545969
4950.4545969
4950.4545969
4950.4545969
4950.4545969
Total
102.54988472
215.23503458
70.429489625
36.871153113
71.061345934
138.31840378
59.495521134
125.15134366
10516.478856
46326.120113
4960.3130088
1359.4819319
5049.7148859
19131.980824
3539.717035
15662.85882
5151.1141915 797090.90908
MAD
MSE
109.59817429 16959.381044
2.114%
= 0.7
ing Average dengan = 0.6
5300
5200
D(t
)
f(t)
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
D(t
)
f(t)
= 0.8
|(D(t)-f(t))/D(t)|
0.0026520439
0.0295364103
0.0036067666
0.0174698927
0.04238299
0.0148451709
0.0215354163
0.0245504451
0.0136120467
0.0046769807
0.0183870973
0.0369402946
0.0259856586
0.0301317
0.0593970651
0.0360984353
0.0384748002
0.0251543167
0.0156115045
0.0277181589
0.0353268778
0.0059255631
0.0080238783
0.0194715038
0.0519843258
0.0218056652
0.003809738
0.0002323735
0.0050187053
0.0091586877
0.0221556245
0.0175191717
0.029880969
0.01260531
0.0501099742
0.0410298765
0.0142260201
0.0195364823
0.0029074319
f(t)
5015
5030.2
5018.04
4903.608
4929.5216
4862.70432
5042.140864
5086.8281728
5166.9656346
5057.3931269
5010.6786254
5036.5357251
4963.307145
5123.061429
5218.2122858
5082.8424572
4863.7684914
5035.1536983
5186.2307397
5066.8461479
5010.9692296
4910.1938459
5066.8387692
5078.9677538
5106.9935508
5183.7987102
4970.359742
5078.0719484
5088.4143897
5084.8828779
5104.9765756
5065.7953151
4981.159063
5061.8318126
5181.1663625
5116.2332725
4923.2466545
5112.6493309
5042.5298662
5126.1059732
|D(t)-f(t)|
(D(t)-f(t))2
|(D(t)-f(t))/D(t)|
15.2
143.04
32.392
83.5216
224.29568
55.859136
100.1718272
136.96563456
58.393126912
32.321374618
91.535725076
199.69285498
118.938571
169.2122858
273.84245716
214.23150857
188.84630171
149.23073966
69.846147931
125.96922959
195.80615408
15.161230817
35.032246163
96.006449233
266.79871015
134.64025797
12.928051594
4.4143896812
25.117122064
48.976575587
105.79531512
100.84093698
149.1681874
81.166362521
241.2332725
236.7533455
87.6493309
104.47013382
24.105973236
231.04
20460.4416
1049.241664
6975.8576666
50308.552067
3120.2430747
10034.394965
18759.58505
3409.7572706
1044.6712572
8378.7889653
39877.236332
14146.383671
28632.797666
74989.691343
45895.139263
35662.925671
22269.813659
4878.4843809
15868.246803
38340.049977
229.86291987
1227.2582712
9217.2382943
71181.55174
18127.999066
167.13451801
19.486836258
630.86982077
2398.7049563
11192.648701
10168.89457
22251.148131
6587.9784049
58193.491763
56052.146605
7682.4052072
10914.00886
581.09794566
0.0030309073
0.0293415385
0.0065623987
0.017235163
0.0440919363
0.0109570687
0.0193120932
0.0272297484
0.0116809616
0.0064091562
0.0185107634
0.0386776787
0.0226895404
0.0335140198
0.0569437424
0.0421881663
0.0361497515
0.0296269088
0.0139776162
0.0257869457
0.038348248
0.0029833197
0.0068502632
0.0184521332
0.0542604658
0.0263741935
0.0025393934
0.0008682907
0.0049152881
0.0096868227
0.0213297006
0.019842766
0.0286256357
0.015914973
0.0494837482
0.0458824313
0.0174426529
0.0202972865
0.0047248086
0.0196870579
0.0433679296
0.0138151215
0.007315705
0.0142693466
0.0284430195
0.0122797773
0.0250904859
1.0237638162
5106.8211946
5188.5642389
5008.1128478
5080.0225696
5048.0045139
4993.6009028
4889.1201806
4853.8240361
4961.1648072
4961.1648072
4961.1648072
4961.1648072
4961.1648072
4961.1648072
4961.1648072
4961.1648072
4961.1648072
4961.1648072
4961.1648072
4961.1648072
Total
MAP
2.178%
102.17880535
225.56423893
89.887152214
40.022569557
68.004513911
130.60090278
44.120180556
134.17596389
10440.508263
50879.225884
8079.7001332
1601.806074
4624.6139123
17056.595808
1946.5903323
18003.189285
0.0196158198
0.0454491717
0.0176318463
0.007940986
0.0136555249
0.0268560359
0.0091063324
0.0268997522
5284.1245733 843789.49865
1.0498939951
MAD
MSE
112.42818241 17952.968056
MAP
2.234%
= 0.8
ge dengan = 0.7
D(t
)
f(t)
Sing
5300
5300
5200
5200
5100
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
D(t
)
f(t)
5000
4900
4800
4700
= 0.9
f(t)
5015
5032.1
5016.71
4889.171
4931.3171
4854.53171
5063.753171
5094.5753171
5177.7575317
5044.7757532
5003.5775753
5039.0577575
4954.4057758
5142.1405776
5232.0140578
5067.3014058
4834.8301406
5053.6830141
5206.9683014
5053.9968301
5002.699683
4896.7699683
5085.0769968
5082.3076997
5110.83077
5193.783077
4944.6783077
5088.9678308
5090.7967831
5084.6796783
5107.4679678
5061.1467968
4970.1146797
5070.811468
5196.9811468
5109.6981147
4898.4698115
5133.8469811
5035.8846981
5135.8884698
|D(t)-f(t)|
(D(t)-f(t))2
|(D(t)-f(t))/D(t)|
17.1
141.71
46.829
85.3171
232.46829
34.246829
92.4246829
147.75753171
45.775753171
39.422424683
94.057757532
208.59422425
99.859422425
183.01405776
258.30140578
243.16985942
170.31698594
169.96830141
56.996830141
117.69968301
209.2300317
3.0769968301
31.692300317
92.169230032
276.783077
160.3216923
2.03216923
6.796783077
25.320321692
51.467967831
101.14679678
111.88532032
140.18853203
96.981146797
234.69811468
261.53018853
108.84698115
111.11530189
33.888469811
292.41
20081.7241
2192.955241
7279.0075524
54041.505856
1172.8452966
8542.3220092
21832.288177
2095.4195784
1554.1275679
8846.8617519
43511.550389
9971.904247
33494.145337
66719.616226
59131.580532
29007.8757
28889.223483
3248.6386461
13853.215382
43777.206165
9.4679094927
1004.4018994
8495.1669646
76608.871712
25703.045022
4.1297117795
46.196260196
641.1186906
2648.9517126
10230.674499
12518.324903
19652.824513
9405.342834
55083.205034
68398.039514
11847.665305
12346.610313
1148.4283862
0.0034097707
0.0290687179
0.0094872366
0.0176056748
0.045698504
0.0067176989
0.0178185238
0.0293752548
0.009156982
0.0078172565
0.0190207801
0.0404017479
0.0190498707
0.0362475852
0.0537120827
0.0478869357
0.0326027921
0.033743955
0.0114062098
0.0240941009
0.0409772878
0.0006054697
0.0061971647
0.0177146319
0.0562910468
0.0314048369
0.000399169
0.0013368967
0.0049550532
0.0101795822
0.0203924994
0.0220160016
0.0269024241
0.0190159111
0.048143203
0.0506841451
0.0216610908
0.0215883625
0.0066421932
5105.388847
5198.6388847
4986.5638885
5086.8563888
5044.6856389
4986.4685639
4875.3468564
4848.0346856
4974.0034686
4974.0034686
4974.0034686
4974.0034686
4974.0034686
4974.0034686
4974.0034686
4974.0034686
4974.0034686
4974.0034686
4974.0034686
4974.0034686
Total
103.61115302
235.6388847
111.43611153
46.856388847
64.685638885
123.46856389
30.346856389
139.96531436
10735.27103
55525.683982
12418.006953
2195.5211758
4184.2318779
15244.486269
920.93169269
19590.289224
0.0198907954
0.0474791224
0.02185879
0.0092969025
0.0129890841
0.0253893818
0.0062635411
0.0280604079
5400.2104727 896143.31062
1.0726566753
MAD
MSE
114.89809516 19066.878949
MAP
2.282%
= 0.9
5300
5200
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
D(t
)
f(t)
Kesimpulan Dongkrak C
Model
MIN
Nilai MAD
90.0555555556
91.1174676372
90.45625
90.0555555556
Model Terbaik
Single Moving Average
Nilai MSE
90.0555555556
Single Moving Average

Single Exponential Smoothing
Weighted Moving Average
C
Nilai MSE
13058.817460318
12663.904049343
12881.177141204
12663.904049343
Nilai MAP
1.789%
1.814%
1.801%
1.789%
Nilai MAD
Nilai MAP
13058.817460318
1.789%
Verifikasi Dongkrak C
Periode
Data Aktual
Hasil Peramalan
Error
MR
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
5034
5015
4875
4936
4846
5087
5098
5187
5030
4999
5043
4945
5163
5242
5049
4809
5078
5224
5037
4997
4885
5106
5082
5114
5203
4917
5105
5091
5084
5110
5056
4960
5082
5211
5100
4875
5160
5025
5147
0
0
0
0
0
0
4965.5
4976.1666666667
5004.8333333333
5030.6666666667
5041.1666666667
5074
5050.3333333333
5061.1666666667
5070.3333333333
5073.5
5041.8333333333
5047.6666666667
5094.1666666667
5073.1666666667
5032.3333333333
5005
5054.5
5055.1666666667
5036.8333333333
5064.5
5051.1666666667
5087.8333333333
5085.3333333333
5085.6666666667
5085
5060.5
5067.6666666667
5063.8333333333
5083.8333333333
5086.5
5047.3333333333
5064.6666666667
5075.5
0
0
0
0
0
0
132.5
210.8333333333
25.1666666667
-31.6666666667
1.8333333333
-129
112.6666666667
180.8333333333
-21.3333333333
-264.5
36.1666666667
176.3333333333
-57.1666666667
-76.1666666667
-147.3333333333
101
27.5
58.8333333333
166.1666666667
-147.5
53.8333333333
3.1666666667
-1.3333333333
24.3333333333
-29
-100.5
14.3333333333
147.1666666667
16.1666666667
-211.5
112.6666666667
-39.6666666667
71.5
0
0
0
0
0
132.5
78.3333333333
185.6666666667
56.8333333333
33.5
130.8333333333
241.6666666667
68.1666666667
202.1666666667
243.1666666667
300.6666666667
140.1666666667
233.5
19
71.1666666667
248.3333333333
73.5
31.3333333333
107.3333333333
313.6666666667
201.3333333333
50.6666666667
4.5
25.6666666667
53.3333333333
71.5
114.8333333333
132.8333333333
131
227.6666666667
324.1666666667
152.3333333333
111.1666666667
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
5102
5209
4963
5098
5040
4980
4863
4845
4988
5086.3333333333
5068.1666666667
5086.3333333333
5101
5090.6666666667
5093.1666666667
5065.3333333333
5025.5
4964.8333333333
15.6666666667
140.8333333333
-123.3333333333
-3
-50.6666666667
-113.1666666667
-202.3333333333
-180.5
23.1666666667
55.8333333333
125.1666666667
264.1666666667
120.3333333333
47.6666666667
62.5
89.1666666667
21.8333333333
203.6666666667
UCL
LCL
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
A+
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
B+
A-
B-
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
311.4369503546
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
-311.436950355
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
207.625
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
103.8123167849
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-207.62463357
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
-103.812316785
VERIFIKASI
MR-Bar
UCL
LCL
A+
B+
AB-
117.0815602837
311.4369503546
-311.436950355
207.625
103.8123167849
-207.62463357
-103.812316785
400
300
CL
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
Kesimpulan
Tidak ada 2 dari 3 data berturutan berada di daerah A sehingga data termasuk dalam kondisi normal. Tidak ada 4 dari 5
berturutan berada pada daerah B sehingga data dapat dikatakan normal . Tidak terdapat data diluar UCL dan LCL.Nam
terdapat 8 data secara berturut turut yang terdapat disalah satu sisi central line. Dengan demikian data dapat dikatak
abnormal.
rmal. Tidak ada 4 dari 5 data

iluar UCL dan LCL.Namun
ikian data dapat dikatakan
UC
L
LCL
A+
B+
ABErr
or
Disagregasi Dongkrak C
Data Demand
Persentase (%)
Periode
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
Hasil Forecasting
4969.000
4969.000
4969.000
4969.000
4969.000
4969.000
4969.000
4969.000
4969.000
4969.000
4969.000
4969.000
Regional 1
49024
20.250%
Regional 2
63346
26.166%
Regional 1
1006
1006
1006
1006
1006
1006
1006
1006
1006
1006
1006
1006
Regional 2
1300
1300
1300
1300
1300
1300
1300
1300
1300
1300
1300
1300
Regional 3
129725
53.584%
Regional 3
2663
2663
2663
2663
2663
2663
2663
2663
2663
2663
2663
2663
Pl
Dongkrak A
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Plot Data Seasonal (Dongkrak A)
ongkrak A
dongkrak A
Plot Data : Seasonal

Metode :
Triple Exponential Smoothing (Holt's
Winter Method)
Triple Exponential Smoothing

( Holt Winter)
Siklus
Periode
t
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
x(t)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
0.1
F(t)
3680
2142
2629
2148
3563
4009
4128
2869
3679
2726
4122
5158
5413
3689
4525
3454
4930
5733
6340
4580
5314
4292
5985
6645
6813
5176
5962
5246
6538
7462
7483
5941
6353
5866
7534
8252
8622
6965
7515
3028.5
3073.3
3181.84
3369.192
3561.5396
3737.24848
3939.411624
4179.3752912
4400.53546256
4609.417590528
4767.222122646
4881.058898088
4956.370803617
5052.760155704
5156.618844764
5269.851443874
5386.909916445
5531.349047519
5681.177487927
5808.069231832
5919.415723951
6022.845746468
6149.116498177
6266.14046671
6396.605891872
6513.913897773
6630.944995058
6711.7131287
6798.367448433
6919.404796078
7059.897442925
7240.905799637
7445.117553119
7658.713021898
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
6636
8114
9114
9292
7845
8453
7693
8898
9661
7844.033413447
7988.736794152
8119.289809376
8230.534777656
8348.466749491
8482.80828889
8635.359159002
8771.770581714
8878.898653348
Visualisasi
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2
1
4
3
6
5
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41
Ringkasan
Kesimpulan

T(t)
0
44.8
108.54
187.352
192.3476
175.70888
202.163144
239.9636672
221.16017136
208.882127968
157.8045321184
113.8367754419
75.3119055289
96.3893520863
103.8586890609
113.2325991101
117.0584725704
144.4391310742
149.8284404079
126.8917439054
111.3464921189
103.4300225171
126.2707517087
117.0239685334
130.4654251619
117.3080059008
117.0310972854
80.7681336412
86.6543197338
121.037347645
140.4926468461
181.0083567124
204.2117534818
213.5954687798
S(t)
651.5
-886.5
-399.5
-880.5
534.5
980.5
893.42
-542.304
26.0848
-853.52376
444.650912
1123.3530256
1097.54282528
-643.842877536
-40.2166343168
-1129.3427775879
207.225025947
915.3187280697
1211.3610366899
-603.508457873
10.4024799486
-1108.6830609021
355.0805818674
944.4209984717
1087.5028755766
-687.45281752
-32.3464559016
-985.3431232671
305.1479527207
1017.0048642653
1016.4528115668
-688.9481240431
-228.1664595804
-953.5577183669
490.8163034412
1122.0634799514
1235.2376448446
-563.6497814884
-177.4943969712
1
f(t)
3680
2231.6
2890.88
2676.044
4288.3872
4893.45736
5034.994768
3877.0349584
4647.78043392
3964.775958496
5369.6775667648
6118.2486991303
6129.2255344261
4505.3066302538
5220.2608995085
4253.7412653967
5711.1934149623
6591.1069066629
7042.3669650247
5331.4525178647
6041.1646960188
5017.5927080833
6630.4678317532
7327.5854337156
7614.5741926108
5943.7690861539
6715.6296364423
5807.1381390738
7190.1697208879
8057.4470079887
8216.8429013374
6732.9660323062
7421.16284702
|x(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
0.108527
0.222168
0.214221
0.018326
0.040366
0.051288
0.069833
0.050972
0.027134
0.147880
0.089184
0.067198
0.033245
0.016309
0.017640
0.008914
0.045749
0.008110
0.033666
0.030033
0.013278
0.043539
0.014143
0.018013
0.017583
0.000466
0.057080
0.010034
0.045637
0.023576
0.046991
0.033314
0.012487
|x(t)-f(t)|
448.000000
637.400000
788.120000
49.956000
166.387200
264.542640
378.005232
188.034958
122.780434
510.775958
439.677567
385.248699
210.774466
74.693370
93.739100
38.258735
273.806585
53.893093
229.366965
155.452518
79.164696
228.407292
92.467832
134.414566
131.574193
2.769086
362.629636
58.861861
343.830279
194.552992
405.157099
232.033968
93.837153
185.3203915486
144.7033807049
130.5530152241
111.2449682796
117.9319718349
134.3415393995
152.550870112
136.4114227121
107.128071634
32 34 36 38 40 42
1 33 35 37 39 41
-1106.243135415
271.4844448853
1045.6515063549
1130.9741913444
-527.5399622898
-88.8827321226
-1007.9127495673
184.3314289256
887.521410533
6918.7507723113
8520.1701084369
9255.5036548083
9485.0804694448
7778.1299644469
8288.9043243544
7510.9066928747
9059.3944739995
9953.8335107813
10117.000916327
8565.6148343264
9111.4001361275
8299.4981903168
9598.8704404436
10409.188493685
10759.76934613
9208.3832641301
9754.1685659313
8942.2666201205
10241.638870247
11051.956923489
Total
Data Aktual
Data Forecast
0.042609
0.050058
0.015526
0.020779
0.008524
0.019413
0.023670
0.018138
0.030311
282.750772
406.170108
141.503655
193.080469
66.870036
164.095676
182.093307
161.394474
292.833511
1.865933
9759.406181
MAD
232.366814
MSE
81855.182934

0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
MAD
232.366814
261.372624
340.112451
378.658612
367.645105
380.634372
390.873643
375.089540
366.637555
Ringkasan
MSE
81855.182934
98393.096247
154937.083763
193218.602550
194641.407811
218062.295776
218617.671536
202193.633279
196473.284030
MAD
232.366814
Nilai Minimal
MSE
81855.18293
Kesimpulan
Dari tabel ringkasan dan tabel nilai minimal dapat dilihat bahwa nilai minimum MAD =
minimum MSE = 81855,18293; dan nilai minimum MAP =4,44270%. Ketiga ukuran pe
berasal dari parameter = 0.1. Dengan demikian model terbaik dihasilkan dari param
menghasilkan error minimum untuk ketiga ukuran performansi yang dipakai. (MAD,
0.6
(x(t)-f(t))^2
200704.000000
406278.760000
621133.134400
2495.601936
27684.700324
69982.808378
142887.955419
35357.145580
15075.034954
260892.079778
193316.362716
148416.560182
44425.875338
5579.099484
8787.018961
1463.730773
74970.046010
2904.465509
52609.204645
24165.485310
6267.049096
52169.891001
8550.299909
18067.275629
17311.768161
7.667838
131500.253226
3464.718672
118219.260834
37850.866701
164152.274597
53839.762164
8805.411279
x(t)
3680
2142
2629
2148
3563
4009
4128
2869
3679
2726
4122
5158
5413
3689
4525
3454
4930
5733
6340
4580
5314
4292
5985
6645
6813
5176
5962
5246
6538
7462
7483
5941
6353
5866
7534
8252
8622
6965
7515
0.2
F(t)
T(t)
3028.5
3118.1
3317.26
3628.836
3873.6296
4012.23856
4156.178016
4349.3859776
4496.58635136
4645.969700096
4735.237991066
4789.673652828
4823.228813593
4956.470296798
5134.564266165
5337.819080438
5528.269895496
5732.764857663
5890.171858263
5955.856769631
5977.698993604
6004.848260519
6117.954721298
6246.496044269
6426.396117743
6580.857238345
6722.764825913
6772.60583663
6833.054724173
6968.241254128
7142.456250976
7389.16798101
7654.039603446
7892.588843439
0
89.6
199.16
311.576
244.7936
138.60896
143.939456
193.2079616
147.20037376
149.383348736
89.2682909696
54.4356617626
33.5551607644
133.241483205
178.0939693677
203.2548142726
190.4508150584
204.4949621668
157.4070005999
65.6849113679
21.8422239732
27.1492669149
113.1064607788
128.5413229708
179.9000734741
154.4611206027
141.9075875676
49.8410107166
60.4488875434
135.1865299553
174.2149968482
246.7117300335
264.8716224362
238.5492399933
79947.999243
164974.156988
20023.284324
37280.067681
4471.601655
26927.390766
33157.972500
26048.176238
85751.465036
6636
8114
9114
9292
7845
8453
7693
8898
9661
8028.915932165
8065.758713111
8095.461554846
8135.164068086
8252.512351319
8453.583113948
8708.195199289
8908.362591836
9013.031517929
136.3270887259
36.8427809451
29.702841735
39.7025132402
117.3482832331
201.0707626289
254.6120853411
200.1673925473
104.6689260925
3437917.683234
MAP
4.4427%
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2
1
4
3
6
5
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 3
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
MAP
4.44270%
4.83690%
5.96368%
6.80606%
6.83988%
6.89276%
6.99336%
6.76255%
6.85406%
ai Minimal
MAP
4.44270%
simpulan
dilihat bahwa nilai minimum MAD = 232,366814; nilai

m MAP =4,44270%. Ketiga ukuran performansi tersebut
n model terbaik dihasilkan dari parameter = 0.1 yang
an performansi yang dipakai. (MAD, MSE, dan MAP)
S(t)
f(t)
651.5
-886.5
-399.5
-880.5
534.5
980.5
866.54
-623.556
-129.7016
-1040.77776
279.656864
993.2931904
984.78441344
-733.974210816
-124.462460058
-1185.05389864
196.0585539031
943.1799880045
1224.031587297
-626.328244026
-64.0764322858
-1215.78349675
229.7645069634
830.1688802439
1003.89857314
-731.550693773
-51.3395292257
-1009.48623148
266.8081762241
953.4298814519
942.8450862489
-761.679173057
-272.299313668
-984.027327096
446.1785180127
1047.098201995
1116.837245894
-718.09543129
-335.473031531
3680
2321.2
3116.92
3059.912
4652.9232
5131.34752
5166.657472
3919.0379392
4514.08512512
3754.575288832
5104.163146035
5837.402504991
5841.568387797
4355.737569187
5188.195775475
4356.019996071
5914.779264458
6880.439807834
7271.61044616
5395.213436973
5935.464785292
4816.21403068
6460.82568904
7205.206247483
7610.194764357
6003.767665175
6813.332884255
5812.960615866
7160.311787941
8056.857665535
8259.516334074
6874.200537987
7646.611912214
|x(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
0.108527
0.190938
0.152781
0.122492
0.128802
0.005167
0.045509
0.062358
0.002412
0.087022
0.035327
0.018211
0.078617
0.048966
0.023674
0.014916
0.011733
0.035431
0.067314
0.042352
0.004451
0.081926
0.011804
0.034414
0.016998
0.010565
0.072459
0.009042
0.049600
0.023648
0.042042
0.013037
0.017513
|x(t)-f(t)|
448.000000
547.800000
562.080000
333.912000
530.923200
26.652480
246.342528
230.037939
10.914875
300.575289
174.163146
104.402505
498.431612
224.262431
125.804225
64.019996
70.220736
235.439808
458.610446
219.213437
26.535215
429.785969
77.174311
256.793753
127.194764
62.767665
460.332884
53.039384
373.688212
195.142334
362.483666
90.799462
131.611912
0.6
(x(t)-f(t))^2
200704.000000
300084.840000
315933.926400
111497.223744
281879.444298
710.354690
60684.641101
52917.453471
119.134494
90345.504256
30332.801437
10899.883048
248434.072043
50293.637874
15826.702908
4098.559897
4930.951700
55431.903113
210323.541327
48054.530950
704.117620
184715.979424
5955.874272
65943.031332
16178.508080
3939.779792
211906.364326
2813.176269
139642.879832
38080.530700
131394.408063
8244.542302
17321.695437
-1229.36049014
207.4161793388
1029.962347891
1140.836457506
-531.745583307
-134.539080981
-1100.86131563
76.7489166338
800.766028399
7147.110756337
8611.421538904
9149.699696051
9242.001642474
7456.771150036
8034.387603021
7425.293386439
9170.223463969
10138.49233227
10258.53690153
8690.623786806
9192.499215225
8330.84590667
9613.125065025
10441.81110288
9745.714000576
9850.382926669
9955.051852761
10059.72077885
10164.38970495
10269.05863104
Total
0.077021
0.061304
0.003917
0.005381
0.049487
0.049522
0.034799
0.030594
0.049425
511.110756
497.421539
35.699696
49.998358
388.228850
418.612397
267.706614
272.223464
477.492332
261234.205243
247428.187366
1274.468298
2499.835755
150721.639945
175236.338904
71666.830944
74105.614335
227998.927381
2.031497
10977.650190
4132510.042374
MAD
261.372624
MSE
98393.096247
18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54
7 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
Data Aktual
Data Forecast
MAP
4.837%

x(t)
0.3
F(t)
3680
2142
2629
2148
3563
4009
4128
2869
3679
2726
4122
5158
5413
3689
4525
3454
4930
5733
6340
4580
5314
4292
5985
6645
6813
5176
5962
5246
6538
7462
7483
5941
6353
5866
7534
8252
8622
6965
7515
3028.5
3162.9
3434.76
3818.184
4023.0756
4035.82704
4087.254936
4269.0799824
4430.55032016
4644.907580544
4776.81899665
4835.460156129
4835.376809405
4980.040620709
5178.058880038
5408.234610055
5608.248100647
5812.405488851
5919.364195023
5894.867421297
5856.416362758
5898.450187763
6118.567812092
6347.861743482
6597.702599948
6725.933111507
6780.432245227
6693.822788983
6696.483140357
6895.128333232
7187.705387281
7561.62674581
7875.568560809
8049.893694572
T(t)
S(t)
f(t)
0
134.4
271.86
383.424
204.8916
12.75144
51.427896
181.8250464
161.47033776
214.357260384
131.9114161056
58.641159479
-0.0833467233
144.6638113041
198.0182593288
230.1757300166
200.0134905921
204.1573882035
106.9587061723
-24.4967737257
-38.4510585387
42.0338250045
220.1176243295
229.2939313893
249.8408564661
128.2305115596
54.4991337194
-86.6094562435
2.6603513733
198.6451928756
292.5770540491
373.9213585284
313.9418149998
174.3251337624
651.5
-886.5
-399.5
-880.5
534.5
980.5
839.66
-694.056
-243.3104
-1130.44536
265.503776
1034.6470384
1022.21601056
-722.552592096
-169.268708326
-1245.86954199
162.9254167228
952.4327297168
1224.862031798
-647.856364861
-124.248249364
-1288.09667718
168.7268733788
816.354574873
1040.824359941
-667.3923636
-11.5694124031
-1038.77935813
181.5737032626
845.1202699806
870.569877072
-770.616292576
-209.121438351
-913.801627466
455.9524813658
976.6248756235
984.4519033431
-854.587653516
-404.584792084
3680
2410.8
3307.12
3321.108
4762.4672
5029.07848
4978.342832
3756.8490288
4348.71025792
3728.819480928
5174.234188755
5928.748354008
5857.509473242
4402.151839918
5206.808431041
4392.540798082
5971.187007962
6968.995606771
7251.184932993
5222.51428271
5693.717054856
4652.387335583
6507.412309801
7393.510249744
7888.367816355
6186.771259467
6823.361966543
5568.433974611
6880.717194992
7938.893796088
8350.852318402
7164.931811762
7980.388937458
6636
8114
9114
9292
7845
8453
7693
8898
9661
8021.893668074
7893.139804693
7876.282696232
7993.862340436
8287.885685303
8664.611758744
8995.953538079
9104.03758927
9006.80104857
-28.0000264982
-128.753863381
-16.8571084613
117.5796442046
294.0233448671
376.726073441
331.3417793345
108.0840511913
-97.2365407003
-1197.05685183
314.8971097305
1133.28033251
1172.663357075
-607.566472588
-288.80097208
-1260.59486358
2.3362903301
845.8315038622
7310.417200869
8449.846122941
8741.010816936
8843.877491113
7256.854331125
8177.324238087
7844.280980355
9642.192427144
10345.40197297
10082.22786495
8204.761494581
8426.290454389
7357.260022189
8522.954635399
9269.21330823
8326.145263668
8228.908722968
8131.672182267
8034.435641567
7937.199100867
7839.962560166
Total
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2
1
4
3
6
5
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 4
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

|x(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
0.108527
0.159707
0.101082
0.218308
0.155378
0.024994
0.080299
0.018392
0.038959
0.079566
0.049540
0.034144
0.076103
0.038831
0.020172
0.023425
0.002308
0.048758
0.064316
0.008987
0.044999
0.113155
0.004678
0.009178
0.054172
0.041369
0.074038
0.050727
0.086711
0.037943
0.031448
0.028705
0.061928
|x(t)-f(t)|
448.000000
458.200000
371.880000
595.108000
640.467200
128.921520
434.657168
67.849029
176.289742
274.819481
244.234189
195.748354
482.490527
177.848160
107.191569
100.540798
13.812992
323.995607
438.184933
46.514283
268.282945
593.612664
30.587690
68.489750
405.367816
245.771259
470.361967
297.566025
653.282805
313.106204
271.147682
199.931812
465.388937
0.6
(x(t)-f(t))^2
200704.000000
209947.240000
138294.734400
354153.531664
410198.234276
16620.758319
188926.853694
4603.490709
31078.073163
75525.747098
59650.338957
38317.418097
232797.108411
31629.968045
11490.032456
10108.452079
190.798749
104973.153207
192006.035502
2163.578496
71975.738655
352375.995356
935.606792
4690.845890
164323.066536
60403.511980
221240.379570
88545.539466
426778.423319
98035.494928
73521.065236
39972.729354
216586.863108
x(t)
3680
2142
2629
2148
3563
4009
4128
2869
3679
2726
4122
5158
5413
3689
4525
3454
4930
5733
6340
4580
5314
4292
5985
6645
6813
5176
5962
5246
6538
7462
7483
5941
6353
5866
7534
8252
8622
6965
7515
0.101630
0.041391
0.040925
0.048227
0.074971
0.032613
0.019665
0.083636
0.070842
674.417201
335.846123
372.989183
448.122509
588.145669
275.675762
151.280980
744.192427
684.401973
454838.560827
112792.618295
139120.930683
200813.782971
345915.327816
75997.125706
22885.935017
553822.368618
468406.060608
2.504747
14284.722935
6507357.518054
MAD
340.112451
MSE
154937.083763
34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54
35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
6636
8114
9114
9292
7845
8453
7693
8898
9661
MAP
5.9637%
12000
10000
8000
Data Aktual
6000
Data Forecast
4000
2000
0
2
1
4
3
6
5
8 10 12 1
9 11 13
0.4
F(t)
3028.5
3207.7
3534.34
3947.988
4059.5816
3937.70512
3960.497184
4230.0615488
4476.89714816
4772.716768512
4883.661417318
4839.012868475
4725.537915939
4889.287749754
5173.5265057
5511.10202943
5753.501105653
5917.802889079
5887.759632993
5726.078874769
5675.366813519
5851.234487401
6276.41939163
6590.540382875
6778.057868187
6706.183761494
6583.365005561
6427.60068117
6581.505706002
7049.207252535
7506.983585291
7854.675473345
7952.139703246
7857.695695927
T(t)
S(t)
f(t)
0
179.2
326.64
413.648
111.5936
-121.87648
22.792064
269.5643648
246.83559936
295.819620352
110.9446488064
-44.6485488435
-113.474952536
163.7498338148
284.2387559458
337.5755237306
242.3990762227
164.3017834265
-30.0432560865
-161.680758223
-50.7120612505
175.8676738825
425.1849042282
314.1209912457
187.5174853113
-71.8741066929
-122.818755932
-155.764324391
153.9050248319
467.7015465327
457.7763327561
347.6918880538
97.4642299016
-94.4440073197
651.5
-886.5
-399.5
-880.5
534.5
980.5
812.78
-753.804
-321.1928
-1152.34896
324.376928
1110.7016896
1034.87507072
-774.259888896
-277.107181107
-1318.73643439
184.3430501151
1048.757926277
1284.377378436
-665.819858978
-229.104090101
-1404.39523715
114.0554865984
873.847390715
1165.903626513
-565.948031703
-25.1823284812
-1180.00972984
14.0979649142
759.9042353741
932.4511937089
-611.798216018
-54.8333400945
-901.307315536
296.5148344449
750.9715429752
833.3751934768
-837.003108355
-227.550753594
3680
2500.4
3461.48
3481.136
4705.6752
4796.32864
4796.069248
3745.8219136
4402.53994752
3916.187428864
5318.982994125
5905.066009231
5646.938034123
4278.777694672
5180.658080538
4529.94111877
6180.243231991
7130.862598783
7142.093755342
4898.578257568
5395.550662167
4622.706924136
6815.659782456
7778.508764836
8131.478980011
6068.361623098
6435.363921148
5091.826626942
6749.508695748
8276.813034441
8897.211111756
7590.56914538
7994.770593053
|x(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
0.108527
0.128477
0.059125
0.277012
0.141600
0.070119
0.113972
0.015403
0.027063
0.133812
0.078901
0.030013
0.109316
0.065769
0.025093
0.055438
0.032622
0.073117
0.048304
0.053598
0.095010
0.118813
0.042469
0.042416
0.086660
0.021438
0.012965
0.131976
0.104127
0.003007
0.031920
0.089816
0.063842
|x(t)-f(t)|
448.000000
368.600000
217.520000
755.136000
583.675200
361.671360
616.930752
56.821914
122.460052
462.187429
388.982994
172.066009
693.061966
301.222305
133.341919
237.941119
195.243232
485.862599
329.093755
277.421742
566.449338
623.293076
277.659782
316.508765
648.478980
127.361623
82.363921
774.173373
784.491304
24.813034
275.211112
625.569145
479.770593
7672.873939378
7619.82537592
7885.277470287
8273.887661402
8670.299954852
8912.247650419
8962.776123528
8801.138474692
8633.051641507
-184.821756548
-53.0485634582
265.4520943669
388.6101911145
396.41229345
241.9476955668
50.5284731093
-161.637648836
-168.086833185
-982.647289841
415.1107082258
1037.622135018
944.2174805497
-829.981216253
-366.568891689
-1154.92459005
224.1611984752
1031.817869103
6861.944373071
7784.567017275
8317.748355437
8984.104758131
7825.494744161
8839.161494708
8171.548056144
9428.415304863
9677.122960874
9409.182288871
7466.896758883
7762.222250262
6805.779718712
8016.778674055
8656.348511497
7456.443809209
7288.356976024
7120.270142838
6952.183309653
6784.096476467
6616.009643282
Total
0.034048
0.040601
0.087366
0.033136
0.002486
0.045683
0.062206
0.059611
0.001669
225.944373
329.432983
796.251645
307.895242
19.505256
386.161495
478.548056
530.415305
16.122961
2.858544
15903.661710
MAD
378.658612
MSE
193218.602550
2000
0000
8000
6000
Data Aktual
Data Forecast
4000
2000
0
2
1
4
3
6
5
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
0.6
(x(t)-f(t))^2
200704.000000
135865.960000
47314.950400
570230.378496
340676.739095
130806.172644
380603.552763
3228.729865
14996.464453
213617.219400
151307.769718
29606.711533
480334.888546
90734.877227
17780.067486
56615.976001
38119.919638
236062.464896
108302.699805
76962.823174
320864.852331
388494.258420
77094.954794
100177.798218
420524.987516
16220.983038
6783.815507
599344.411553
615426.606447
615.686678
75741.156034
391336.755652
230179.821959
x(t)
3680
2142
2629
2148
3563
4009
4128
2869
3679
2726
4122
5158
5413
3689
4525
3454
4930
5733
6340
4580
5314
4292
5985
6645
6813
5176
5962
5246
6538
7462
7483
5941
6353
5866
7534
8252
8622
6965
7515
0.5
F(t)
T(t)
3028.5
3252.5
3616
4029
4024.25
3803.5
3880.125
4291.925
4597.7625
4899.2
4892.89375
4705.84375
4546.434375
4870.01
5319.9815625
5728.1965625
5872.10390625
5852.27875
5650.972109375
5492.934734375
5650.718648438
6083.99825
6618.829347656
6746.723097656
6634.998181641
6351.757853125
6305.282344336
6422.001680273
6909.085481152
7488.058720313
7698.091337354
7665.13782126
7528.086288696
7520.157187148
0
224
363.5
413
-4.75
-220.75
76.625
411.8
305.8375
301.4375
-6.30625
-187.05
-159.409375
323.575625
449.9715625
408.215
143.90734375
-19.82515625
-201.306640625
-158.037375
157.7839140625
433.2796015625
534.8310976563
127.89375
-111.724916016
-283.240328516
-46.4755087891
116.7193359375
487.0838008789
578.9732391602
210.032617041
-32.9535160938
-137.051532563
-7.9291015479
54
3
51050.859722
108526.090107
634016.681469
94799.479966
380.455005
149120.699995
229008.242039
281340.395633
259.949867
6636
8114
9114
9292
7845
8453
7693
8898
9661
7669.729676365
7962.058330603
8333.451036674
8471.393555375
8487.891578092
8507.097880182
8658.017247471
8806.048705686
8933.078410654
149.5724892163
292.3286542383
371.3927060706
137.9425187014
16.4980227174
19.2063020898
150.919367289
148.0314582148
127.0297049676
8115181.307090
MAP
6.8061%
12000
10000
8000
Data Aktual
6000
Data Forecast
4000
2000
0
2
1
4
3
6
5
8
7
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
S(t)
f(t)
651.5
-886.5
-399.5
-880.5
534.5
980.5
785.9
-802.8
-369.8
-1131.15
404.9
1158.925
987.005
-866.3775
-372.44
-1315.79625
296.45375
1175.509375
1276.796
-790.5399375
-397.4939375
-1474.38084375
198.21425
1066.620484375
1302.757559375
-601.047164063
-232.196525
-1413.44994609
-45.9481585937
922.8492847656
1199.848311875
-458.988272227
-134.279618164
-1191.23126713
9.185504375
701.4849114941
1054.056631994
-521.447082108
-56.8061595547
3680
2590
3580
3561.5
4554
4563.25
4742.65
3900.925
4533.8
4069.4875
5291.4875
5677.71875
5374.03
4327.208125
5397.513125
4820.6153125
6312.465
7007.96296875
6726.46146875
4544.357421875
5411.008625
5042.897007813
7351.874695313
7941.237332031
7826.030825
5467.470360547
6026.610310547
5125.271070117
7350.221123438
8989.881244238
9107.97226627
7173.196032939
7256.755137969
|x(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
|x(t)-f(t)|
0.108527
0.097246
0.026909
0.306493
0.104803
0.115306
0.123841
0.057448
0.001945
0.178196
0.073324
0.009643
0.152361
0.055195
0.015716
0.123163
0.054714
0.054622
0.012702
0.122033
0.092417
0.038716
0.124484
0.064224
0.045841
0.079705
0.051376
0.126275
0.024393
0.089418
0.056364
0.029892
0.034364
448.000000
279.000000
99.000000
835.500000
432.000000
594.750000
670.350000
211.925000
8.800000
615.487500
361.487500
55.281250
965.970000
252.791875
83.513125
528.615313
327.465000
362.962969
86.538531
631.642578
550.991375
203.102992
813.874695
479.237332
343.030825
473.529639
326.389689
740.728930
183.778877
737.881244
485.972266
208.196033
258.244862
0.6
(x(t)-f(t))^2
200704.000000
77841.000000
9801.000000
698060.250000
186624.000000
353727.562500
449369.122500
44912.205625
77.440000
378824.862656
130673.212656
3056.016602
933098.040900
63903.732066
6974.442047
279434.148609
107233.326225
131742.116684
7488.917391
398972.346500
303591.495324
41250.825436
662392.019670
229668.420412
117670.146900
224230.319441
106530.229381
548679.347565
33774.675471
544468.730599
236169.043583
43345.588132
66690.408766
-1096.73031267
94.8392033882
748.9233425935
913.9865195727
-594.313779699
-55.1811919312
-1017.70247355
93.1064579437
736.3222906452
6320.996818472
7828.487669956
8955.871896335
9758.900374738
8087.888991968
8447.583441255
7429.573869602
8903.775818148
9703.003506494
9974.094635194
8592.82404089
9258.986333625
8423.494756973
9661.333393435
10431.5789311
9822.286345427
9949.316050395
10076.34575536
10203.37546033
10330.4051653
10457.43487027
Total
0.047469
0.035188
0.017350
0.050248
0.030961
0.000641
0.034242
0.000649
0.004348
315.003182
285.512330
158.128104
466.900375
242.888992
5.416559
263.426130
5.775818
42.003506
99227.004373
81517.290607
25004.497169
217995.959931
58995.062419
29.339109
69393.326177
33.360075
1764.294558
2.872752
15441.094397
8174939.128058
MAD
367.645105
MSE
194641.407811
6 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54
17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
Data Aktual
Data Forecast
MAP
6.8399%

x(t)
0.6
F(t)
3680
2142
2629
2148
3563
4009
4128
2869
3679
2726
4122
5158
5413
3689
4525
3454
4930
5733
6340
4580
5314
4292
5985
6645
6813
5176
5962
5246
6538
7462
7483
5941
6353
5866
7534
8252
8622
6965
7515
3028.5
3297.3
3679.74
4071.972
3949.5816
3683.37648
3873.368544
4417.7322432
4702.86477696
4947.548844288
4801.102540646
4533.678027602
4448.514081663
5008.878861842
5542.539336514
5865.937476418
5796.614911562
5624.767241739
5426.637968501
5483.815391389
5895.248038738
6397.392786723
6747.348648058
6529.178132006
6266.380770936
6134.57167016
6453.93468691
6796.8686896
7251.980043887
7507.043218091
7331.530724277
7247.508415928
7424.342793982
7819.563440324
T(t)
S(t)
f(t)
0
268.8
382.44
392.232
-122.3904
-266.20512
189.992064
544.3636992
285.13253376
244.684067328
-146.446303642
-267.424513044
-85.1639459389
560.3647801786
533.6604746721
323.3981399043
-69.3225648564
-171.847669823
-198.129273238
57.1774228881
411.4326473489
502.1447479847
349.9558613355
-218.170516052
-262.79736107
-131.809100776
319.3630167503
342.9340026894
455.1113542871
255.0631742045
-175.512493814
-84.0223083489
176.8343780539
395.2206463424
651.5
-886.5
-399.5
-880.5
534.5
980.5
759.02
-841.044
-395.5832
-1086.34896
476.974112
1162.9788736
900.76865408
-944.736466176
-411.762586573
-1242.80110839
428.5828282388
1235.883100442
1158.980144527
-955.418188379
-495.86752048
-1399.88939029
387.5727862523
1225.370459076
1261.102822977
-813.716098594
-459.582680226
-1460.76494495
160.3222352972
1207.519721069
1313.498127095
-633.247251584
-450.15428585
-1415.89400431
80.3029632642
1035.289453861
1350.094201281
-528.904577023
-362.799778535
3680
2679.6
3662.68
3583.704
4361.6912
4397.67136
4822.380608
4121.0519424
4592.41411072
4105.883951616
5131.630349005
5429.232388157
5264.118789804
4624.507175844
5664.437224613
4946.534507934
6155.875174944
6688.802672358
6387.48883979
4585.574625899
5810.813165607
5499.648144415
7484.877295646
7536.37807503
7264.686232843
5189.04647079
6313.715023435
5679.037747337
7867.413633471
8969.626113365
8469.516357558
6530.238855995
7151.022886186
6636
8114
9114
9292
7845
8453
7693
8898
9661
8117.050037254
8186.032875715
8149.232613354
8010.116419628
8172.742836575
8623.627568529
9118.59749464
9190.886092374
8906.084147924
297.48659693
68.9828384609
-36.8002623616
-139.116193726
162.6264169465
450.8847319546
494.9699261109
72.2885977344
-284.80194445
-1454.98762408
-11.0985401234
992.9762135324
1309.167828736
-408.207532754
-247.496452531
-1437.35354642
-180.171071474
850.1399966585
6798.890082354
8494.839597448
9290.305168038
9462.526552273
7342.09564888
7972.569474987
7619.524676406
9602.468880628
10256.15090364
9930.450032209
7928.272726269
7804.181862042
6329.522823707
7301.903354198
8047.41247788
6912.470536771
6627.668592321
6342.86664787
6058.06470342
5773.26275897
5488.460814519
Total
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2
1
4
3
6
5
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 4
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

|x(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
0.108527
0.066016
0.004436
0.314638
0.058149
0.147408
0.109111
0.117119
0.014898
0.188733
0.040899
0.052986
0.169697
0.009718
0.065946
0.152501
0.028551
0.006592
0.062456
0.114070
0.025358
0.048351
0.144827
0.009968
0.029175
0.126570
0.006184
0.031872
0.044255
0.086964
0.017685
0.062421
0.048433
|x(t)-f(t)|
448.000000
189.400000
16.320000
857.704000
239.691200
760.328640
590.619392
432.051942
67.414111
651.883952
201.630349
303.767612
1075.881210
44.507176
350.437225
654.534508
170.875175
43.802672
425.511160
590.425374
151.186834
253.648144
946.877296
74.378075
218.313767
751.953529
39.284977
186.962253
333.413633
717.626113
152.483642
434.761144
363.977114
0.6
(x(t)-f(t))^2
200704.000000
35872.360000
266.342400
735656.151616
57451.871357
578099.640804
348831.266206
186668.880932
4544.662324
424952.686374
40654.797640
92274.762005
1157520.378453
1980.888702
122806.248394
428415.422077
29198.325412
1918.674106
181059.747463
348602.122383
22857.458894
64337.381165
896576.613010
5532.098045
47660.900930
565434.110092
1543.309384
34954.883921
111164.650984
514987.238583
23251.261212
189017.252336
132479.339380
x(t)
3680
2142
2629
2148
3563
4009
4128
2869
3679
2726
4122
5158
5413
3689
4525
3454
4930
5733
6340
4580
5314
4292
5985
6645
6813
5176
5962
5246
6538
7462
7483
5941
6353
5866
7534
8252
8622
6965
7515
0.024546
0.046936
0.019344
0.018352
0.064105
0.056836
0.009551
0.079172
0.061603
162.890082
380.839597
176.305168
170.526552
502.904351
480.430525
73.475324
704.468881
595.150904
26533.178929
145038.798985
31083.512277
29079.305030
252912.786376
230813.489365
5398.623177
496276.403773
354204.598105
2.894958
15986.643604
9158616.422602
MAD
380.634372
MSE
218062.295776
34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54
3 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
6636
8114
9114
9292
7845
8453
7693
8898
9661
MAP
6.8928%
12000
10000
8000
Data Aktual
Data Forecast
6000
4000
2000
0
2
1
4
3
6
5
8 10 12 14
9 11 13 15
0.7
F(t)
3028.5
3342.1
3725.56
4087.656
3859.4756
3600.63856
3926.790456
4552.4847056
4743.72888656
4931.487440256
4676.173550186
4408.626093235
4463.775582405
5227.261897825
5689.400676328
5849.384769357
5609.563450594
5433.992876788
5379.293232113
5672.561823858
6153.367893681
6502.162965344
6601.805177103
6209.039319805
6096.791812726
6276.912756766
6802.472133188
7007.782208845
7189.292966134
7195.679672603
7015.036384657
7276.541072883
7781.39683345
8166.293408305
T(t)
S(t)
f(t)
0
313.6
383.46
362.096
-228.1804
-258.83704
326.151896
625.6942496
191.24418096
187.758553696
-255.31389007
-267.547456951
55.1494891705
763.4863154196
462.1387785038
159.9840930287
-239.821318763
-175.570573806
-54.699644675
293.2685917459
480.8060698229
348.795071663
99.6422117584
-392.765857298
-112.247507078
180.1209440395
525.5593764219
205.3100756569
181.5107572891
6.3867064694
-180.643287947
261.5046882266
504.855760567
384.8965748544
651.5
-886.5
-399.5
-880.5
534.5
980.5
732.14
-868.536
-404.9936
-1032.28536
526.616864
1130.9257264
809.16517664
-980.251731936
-405.889904154
-1146.21827411
523.4710896593
1213.904941117
991.3089319612
-1057.74109857
-483.586823276
-1249.02538
539.9927097912
1244.986037179
1080.786478469
-1009.51717564
-517.532508517
-1313.09325826
413.3734920337
1317.119327236
1155.966937328
-920.690150168
-599.882328714
-1319.21308299
368.3415932515
1269.0259001
1269.662131201
-858.114160137
-630.728976468
3680
2769.2
3709.52
3569.252
4165.7952
4322.30152
4985.082352
4309.6429552
4529.97946752
4086.960633952
4947.476524115
5272.004362684
5328.090248216
5010.496481308
5745.649550679
4863.150588275
5893.21322149
6472.327244098
6315.902519399
4908.089317033
6150.587140228
5601.932657007
7241.440098652
7061.259499686
7065.330784118
5447.516525168
6810.499001093
5899.99902624
7784.177215457
8519.185706309
7990.360034038
6617.355610942
7686.370265304
|x(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
0.108527
0.034786
0.008296
0.309337
0.010625
0.162020
0.079054
0.168242
0.001100
0.183254
0.003545
0.080411
0.159607
0.093995
0.081229
0.133073
0.015336
0.025985
0.072963
0.051760
0.031632
0.067848
0.107593
0.053704
0.055816
0.083064
0.072013
0.005796
0.033206
0.032378
0.073259
0.049913
0.022804
|x(t)-f(t)|
448.000000
99.800000
30.520000
843.252000
43.795200
835.698480
427.917648
620.642955
4.979468
632.960634
17.476524
460.995637
1011.909752
430.496481
431.649551
571.150588
91.786779
172.672756
497.097481
267.910683
188.587140
355.932657
703.440099
400.740500
417.669216
493.483475
457.499001
33.999026
250.177215
267.185706
631.639966
347.644389
171.370265
8134.006153037
7852.476554055
7762.765956452
7917.553115814
8513.881994649
9091.673545573
9284.481776461
8858.811508797
8369.796822022
-32.2872552674
-281.529598982
-89.7105976034
154.787159362
596.3288788352
577.7915509242
192.8082308877
-425.670267664
-489.014686775
-1426.48892502
304.2507048677
1318.350786169
1332.532982992
-744.574860844
-635.495717931
-1525.48463588
145.2133766688
1302.062221255
7231.976900174
8470.060491021
8839.972855173
8942.71749005
7214.226115038
8479.481897016
8242.976171481
9781.540712216
9751.492027303
9213.315118239
6647.192587627
6267.257043764
4888.253439037
6069.936764813
6737.770922623
4946.694014593
4457.679327818
3968.664641042
3479.649954267
2990.635267491
2501.620580716
Total
0.089810
0.043882
0.030067
0.037590
0.080405
0.003133
0.071490
0.099297
0.009367
595.976900
356.060491
274.027145
349.282510
630.773885
26.481897
549.976171
883.540712
90.492027
2.937210
16416.693011
MAD
390.873643
MSE
218617.671536
Data Aktual
Data Forecast
2
1
4
3
6
5
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
0.6
(x(t)-f(t))^2
200704.000000
9960.040000
931.470400
711073.935504
1918.019543
698391.949474
183113.513470
385197.677839
24.795097
400639.164133
305.428895
212516.977625
1023961.345756
185327.220419
186321.334601
326212.994486
8424.812709
29815.880631
247105.905220
71776.134048
35565.109460
126688.056324
494827.972392
160592.948592
174447.573896
243525.939932
209305.336001
1155.933785
62588.639134
71388.201656
398969.046600
120856.621243
29367.767830
x(t)
3680
2142
2629
2148
3563
4009
4128
2869
3679
2726
4122
5158
5413
3689
4525
3454
4930
5733
6340
4580
5314
4292
5985
6645
6813
5176
5962
5246
6538
7462
7483
5941
6353
5866
7534
8252
8622
6965
7515
0.8
F(t)
T(t)
3028.5
3386.9
3753.46
4086.804
3769.2296
3560.33104
4012.286496
4659.0403904
4720.57965696
4900.009704704
4561.59815849
4347.996221655
4549.576375044
5434.647493079
5706.390277563
5756.265638668
5439.479399229
5356.920378033
5457.34793862
5892.352371476
6258.317316233
6430.519569262
6405.994955798
6022.968548352
6162.10570562
6536.89661954
6995.468200631
6932.522596415
6978.973213759
6991.579461384
7004.294791475
7562.971620477
8046.606703774
8139.945059722
0
358.4
366.56
333.344
-317.5744
-208.89856
451.955456
646.7538944
61.53926656
179.430047744
-338.411546214
-213.601936835
201.5801533891
885.0711180345
271.7427844848
49.8753611041
-316.786239438
-82.5590211967
100.4275605877
435.0044328558
365.964944757
172.2022530285
-24.5246134635
-383.026407446
139.137157268
374.7909139197
458.5715810905
-62.9456042153
46.4506173439
12.6062476248
12.7153300912
558.6768290023
483.6350832966
93.3383559478
54
355188.465541
126779.073266
75090.876102
121998.271757
397875.693950
701.290870
302473.789197
780644.190143
8188.807005
6636
8114
9114
9292
7845
8453
7693
8898
9661
7854.586951866
7568.401788332
7749.487884737
8216.169012523
8871.852051425
9136.639327655
8979.259165165
8446.231066746
8257.21260225
-285.358107856
-286.185163534
181.0860964053
466.6811277864
655.6830389015
264.7872762301
-157.380162489
-533.028098419
-189.018464496
9181942.204527
MAP
6.9934%
12000
10000
8000
6000
Data Aktual
4000
Data Forecast
2000
0
2
1
4
3
6
5
8
7
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 3
S(t)
f(t)
651.5
-886.5
-399.5
-880.5
534.5
980.5
705.26
-885.276
-404.4824
-978.13776
550.801376
1079.6281024
734.47976576
-973.058194176
-386.798782822
-1055.81399909
569.522817407
1141.905415934
837.0034104568
-1065.05744421
-420.07889633
-1110.81323918
604.6569001432
1169.353403201
887.189941297
-1075.41336742
-449.143300089
-1140.32226915
550.8816310459
1247.677937908
922.5380047948
-1062.84626735
-527.370877885
-1123.91283592
545.804975588
1247.694300278
1004.432229631
-1074.1025292
-585.915386987
3680
2858.8
3720.52
3539.648
3986.1552
4331.93248
5169.501952
4420.5182848
4377.63652352
4101.301992448
4773.987988275
5214.02238722
5485.636294193
5346.660416937
5591.334279226
4750.327000678
5692.215977198
6416.266772769
6394.778909665
5262.299360124
6204.203364661
5491.908583115
6986.127242478
6809.295544108
7188.432804185
5836.274166036
7004.896481632
5729.254723051
7576.305462149
8251.863646917
7939.548126361
7058.802182132
8002.870909186
|x(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
0.108527
0.003555
0.011286
0.298477
0.032956
0.160153
0.044984
0.198297
0.032567
0.187406
0.031645
0.090525
0.134758
0.167393
0.052189
0.106786
0.048920
0.034422
0.061386
0.016673
0.040625
0.046875
0.068542
0.087470
0.039365
0.017628
0.102612
0.023312
0.005615
0.000017
0.079152
0.013468
0.064920
|x(t)-f(t)|
448.000000
10.200000
41.520000
813.648000
135.844800
826.067520
243.498048
731.518285
147.363476
647.301992
156.012012
518.977613
854.363706
766.660417
277.334279
458.327001
292.784023
228.733227
418.221090
86.299360
242.203365
245.908583
448.127242
652.704456
294.567196
104.725834
651.896482
136.745277
42.305462
0.136353
682.451874
93.802182
487.870909
0.6
(x(t)-f(t))^2
200704.000000
104.040000
1723.910400
662023.067904
18453.809687
682387.547599
59291.299380
535119.000997
21715.994200
418999.869427
24339.747802
269337.762566
729937.341800
587768.194898
76914.302434
210063.639550
85722.484008
52318.889239
174908.880401
7447.579558
58662.469853
60471.031250
200818.025451
426023.106742
86769.832850
10967.500299
424969.022765
18699.270768
1789.752128
0.018592
465740.559833
8798.849373
238018.024030
-1180.71730549
545.6809172362
1317.784989269
1047.271484339
-1045.75224254
-644.549751388
-1244.04242129
489.3337268468
1369.386434358
7109.370579755
8115.033819598
8529.910925075
8935.006210774
7608.747611106
8941.619703339
8220.709298399
9367.559919912
9230.987957596
9115.465622093
6833.423430721
7045.607457374
6257.096322972
7801.454006616
8492.488249631
6934.083350777
6745.064886281
6556.046421785
6367.027957288
6178.009492792
5988.991028296
Total
0.071334
0.000127
0.064087
0.038419
0.030115
0.057804
0.068596
0.052771
0.044510
473.370580
1.033820
584.089075
356.993789
236.252389
488.619703
527.709298
469.559920
430.012042
224079.705777
1.068783
341160.047446
127444.565546
55815.191258
238749.214491
278477.103617
220486.518388
184910.356612
2.840269
15753.760681
8492132.597703
MAD
375.089540
MSE
202193.633279
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54
17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
MAP
6.7625%
Data Aktual
Data Forecast

x(t)
0.9
F(t)
3680
2142
2629
2148
3563
4009
4128
2869
3679
2726
4122
5158
5413
3689
4525
3454
4930
5733
6340
4580
5314
4292
5985
6645
6813
5176
5962
5246
6538
7462
7483
5941
6353
5866
7534
8252
8622
6965
7515
3028.5
3431.7
3763.44
4080.168
3685.5396
3557.84112
4102.764264
4725.9267408
4657.14652176
4891.787350272
4456.374201878
4342.030310148
4659.661344402
5588.492877898
5617.38660289
5689.473489935
5314.290660312
5364.080832469
5573.161307464
6058.015788323
6210.337457179
6341.719780027
6270.881015902
5962.375894471
6322.903866135
6734.588353505
6979.129683068
6780.977329447
6851.986568415
6945.33123147
7132.242392698
7820.191134176
8046.944976015
7958.341730961
T(t)
S(t)
f(t)
0
403.2
331.74
316.728
-394.6284
-127.69848
544.923144
623.1624768
-68.78021904
234.640828512
-435.413148394
-114.34389173
317.6310342534
928.8315334957
28.8937249922
72.0868870454
-375.182829623
49.7901721568
209.0804749944
484.8544808597
152.3216688556
131.3823228482
-70.8387641252
-308.505121431
360.5279716637
411.6844873706
244.5413295631
-198.152353621
71.0092389682
93.3446630547
186.9111612274
687.9487414781
226.753841839
-88.6032450541
651.5
-886.5
-399.5
-880.5
534.5
980.5
678.38
-891.264
-400.5008
-927.92376
552.295328
1025.3414416
683.59595552
-937.393513056
-380.272730163
-972.594025127
573.6999451109
1054.139769999
724.3426554695
-997.389366956
-377.393186026
-1002.41200624
602.0314785629
1064.759123521
742.7275891938
-1019.55822109
-378.789142427
-1015.89341204
586.1870547425
1109.361329728
746.1380235743
-1030.70109828
-408.302054639
-997.949305864
587.6760830149
1115.599096273
779.5405289243
-1061.44742492
-429.325860432
3680
2948.4
3695.68
3516.396
3825.4112
4410.64264
5326.067408
4457.8252176
4187.86550272
4198.504418784
4573.256381485
5253.027860019
5660.888334175
5579.930898337
5266.007597719
4788.966351853
5512.807775801
6468.010774625
6506.584437928
5545.480902227
5985.265940008
5470.690096637
6802.07373034
6718.629896562
7426.159426992
6126.714619786
6844.881870205
5566.93156379
7509.182862126
8148.037224252
8065.291577499
7477.438777377
7865.396763215
ast
6636
8114
9114
9292
7845
8453
7693
8898
9661
7657.528223868
7509.362996964
7934.680590361
8497.213342344
8921.77729186
8928.727398526
8728.154741519
8322.890836926
8448.21453737
-300.813507092
-148.165226904
425.3175933966
562.5327519831
424.5639495165
6.9501066661
-200.572657007
-405.263904593
125.3237004436
-1012.09665667
597.8526350275
1153.831284293
788.6882061634
-1070.64534508
-457.166783289
-1025.93150758
584.2065518552
1189.203791295
6871.789180043
7944.390799791
8476.796866333
9139.538712682
7998.298669407
8917.015380945
7923.580848526
9125.434719539
9071.458216626
9362.226443977
7628.216593173
8367.018855412
7923.577831567
9659.039591443
10389.36053133
9325.480440476
9450.804140919
9576.127841363
9701.451541806
9826.77524225
9952.098942694
Total
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2
1
4
3
6
5
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 4
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45

|x(t)-f(t)/x(t)|
0.108527
0.027675
0.004534
0.289947
0.071953
0.144893
0.016060
0.208410
0.074505
0.215548
0.072362
0.083721
0.107115
0.218326
0.009031
0.115789
0.078896
0.026635
0.044975
0.071383
0.003902
0.042831
0.040391
0.099621
0.007596
0.031260
0.077425
0.050983
0.003294
0.012598
0.064568
0.073573
0.046626
|x(t)-f(t)|
448.000000
79.400000
16.680000
790.396000
296.588800
747.357360
86.932592
768.825218
337.134497
744.504419
356.743619
479.972140
679.111666
999.930898
47.992402
496.966352
472.192224
176.989225
306.415562
369.480902
23.265940
224.690097
264.073730
743.370103
56.840573
185.714620
491.881870
299.068436
24.817138
103.962776
556.708423
512.438777
350.396763
0.6
(x(t)-f(t))^2
200704.000000
6304.360000
278.222400
624725.836816
87964.916285
558543.023546
7557.275552
591092.215218
113659.669256
554286.829589
127266.009351
230373.255158
461192.654659
999861.801449
2303.270677
246975.554874
222965.496594
31325.185899
93890.496680
136516.137110
541.303964
50485.639527
69734.935055
552599.110686
3230.850740
34489.920002
241947.774236
89441.929537
615.890332
10808.258741
309924.267683
262593.500559
122777.891671
0.035532
0.020903
0.069915
0.016408
0.019541
0.054894
0.029973
0.025560
0.061023
235.789180
169.609200
637.203134
152.461287
153.298669
464.015381
230.580849
227.434720
589.541783
55596.537425
28767.280796
406027.833555
23244.444131
23500.482042
215310.273753
53167.527707
51726.551652
347559.514343
2.878703
15398.777326
8251877.929256
MAD
366.637555
MSE
196473.284030
32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54
1 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
Data Aktual
Data Forecast
MAP
6.8541%
Kesimpulan Dongkrak A
Metode
Triple Exponential Smoothing ( = 0,1)
MIN
Metode Terbaik
Triple Exponential Smoothing
Nilai MSE
Nilai MAD
81855.18293415 232.366813835
81855.18293415 232.366813835
Nilai MSE
Nilai MAD
81855.18293415 232.366813835
Nilai MAPE
4.44270%
4.44270%
Nilai MAPE
4.44270%
Verifikasi Do
Periode
Data Aktual
Hasil Peramalan
Error
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
4128
2869
3679
2726
4122
5158
5413
3689
4525
3454
4930
5733
6340
4580
5314
4292
5985
6645
6813
5176
5962
5246
6538
7462
7483
5941
6353
5866
7534
8252
8622
6965
7515
6636
8114
9114
9292
3680
2231.6
2890.88
2676.044
4288.3872
4893.45736
5034.994768
3877.0349584
4647.78043392
3964.775958496
5369.6775667648
6118.2486991303
6129.2255344261
4505.3066302538
5220.2608995085
4253.7412653967
5711.1934149623
6591.1069066629
7042.3669650247
5331.4525178647
6041.1646960188
5017.5927080833
6630.4678317532
7327.5854337156
7614.5741926108
5943.7690861539
6715.6296364423
5807.1381390738
7190.1697208879
8057.4470079887
8216.8429013374
6732.9660323062
7421.16284702
6918.7507723113
8520.1701084369
9255.5036548083
9485.0804694448
448
637.4
788.12
49.956
-166.3872
264.54264
378.005232
-188.0349584
-122.78043392
-510.775958496
-439.6775667648
-385.2486991302
210.7744655739
74.6933697462
93.7391004915
38.2587346033
273.8065850378
53.8930933372
-229.3669650247
-155.4525178647
-79.1646960188
228.4072919167
-92.4678317532
134.4145662844
-131.5741926107
-2.7690861539
-362.6296364423
58.8618609262
343.8302791121
194.5529920113
405.1570986626
232.0339676938
93.83715298
-282.7507723113
-406.1701084369
-141.5036548083
-193.0804694447
44
45
46
47
48
7845
8453
7693
8898
9661
7778.1299644469
8288.9043243544
7510.9066928747
9059.3944739995
9953.8335107813
66.8700355531
164.0956756456
182.0933071253
-161.3944739995
-292.8335107813
Verifikasi Dongkrak A
MR
UCL
LCL
A+
B+
A-
189.4
150.72
738.164
216.3432
430.92984
113.462592
566.0401904
65.25452448
387.995524576
71.0983917312
54.4288676346
596.0231647041
136.0810958277
19.0457307453
55.4803658882
235.5478504344
219.9134917006
283.2600583618
73.91444716
76.2878218459
307.5719879355
320.8751236698
226.8823980376
265.9887588951
128.8051064568
359.8605502884
421.4914973686
284.9684181859
149.2772871008
210.6041066513
173.1231309688
138.1968147138
376.5879252913
123.4193361256
264.6664536286
51.5768146364
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
259.9505049978
97.2256400925
17.9976314797
343.4877811248
131.4390367817
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
605.5319670417
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
-605.531967042
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
403.6879780278
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
201.8439890139
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
-403.687978028
B-
VERIFIKASI
227.6435966322
605.5319670417
-605.531967042
403.6879780278
201.8439890139
-403.687978028
-201.843989014
MR-Bar
UCL
LCL
A+
B+
AB-
1000
Verifikasi Dongkr
800
600
MR
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
Periode
KESIMPULAN
Tidak ada 2 dari 3 data yang berurutan berada di daerah A (6 data dari 42 data). Tida
yang berurutan berada pada daerah B (14 data dari 42 data). Tidak terdapat 8 data se
yang terdapat disalah satu sisi central line. Terdapat 2 data yang berada di atas UCL
control). Maka metode peramalan tidak sesuai dan tidak representati
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
-201.843989014
fikasi Dongkrak A
Error
UC L
LC L
A+
B+
Periode
N
(6 data dari 42 data). Tidak ada 4 dari 5 daya
). Tidak terdapat 8 data secara berturut turut
ata yang berada di atas UCL (kondisi out of
suai dan tidak representative.
AB-
Disagregasi Dongkrak A
Data Demand
Persentase (%)
Periode
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
Hasil Forecasting
10117.001
8565.615
9111.400
8299.498
9598.870
10409.188
10759.769
9208.383
9754.169
8942.267
10241.639
11051.957
Regional 1
92851
33.258%
Regional 2
93030
33.322%
Regional 1
3365
2849
3030
2760
3192
3462
3578
3062
3244
2974
3406
3676
Regional 2
3371
2854
3036
2766
3199
3469
3585
3068
3250
2980
3413
3683
Hilangkan link dari file excel lainnya! Update

sourcenya jadi file yang sama
Regional 3
93306
33.421%
Regional 3
3381
2863
3045
2774
3208
3479
3596
3077
3260
2989
3423
3694
ainnya! Update
g sama

Pengolahan Data Ppst2 Modul5 Kelompok14

Diunggah oleh

Informasi Dokumen

Hak Cipta

Format Tersedia

Bagikan dokumen Ini

Bagikan atau Tanam Dokumen

Opsi Berbagi

Apakah menurut Anda dokumen ini bermanfaat?

Apakah konten ini tidak pantas?

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

Pengolahan Data Ppst2 Modul5 Kelompok14

Diunggah oleh

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

Prakt

Praktikum Perancangan Sistem Terintegrasi -2

Laboratorium Perencanaan dan Optimasi Sistem Industri

Plot Data Awal

Plot Data Awal

Plot Data Awal

Plot Data Awal

Plot Data Awal

Plot Data Awal

Plot Data Awal

Plot Data Awal

Plot Data Awal

Plot Data Awal

Plot Data Awal

Plot Data Awal

Perlakuan Terhadap Missing Data

Plot Data Tren (Dongkrak B)

at dilihat bahwa nilai minimum MAD =67,25073315

Moving Average With Linear Trend

Moving Average WLT dengan

erage WLT dengan m=2

Moving Average WLT dengan m=3

D =81.25 yang berasal dari

Moving Average WLT dengan m= 4

Moving Average denga

Moving Average dengan m=5

Moving Average WLT dengan m=

Plot Data Forecast M

ot Data Forecast Moving Average WLT dengan m=7

Moving Average WLT

Moving Average WLT dengan m=8

Moving Average WLT dengan m=

Moving Average WLT dengan m=10

Plot Data Horizontal (Dongkrak C)

Simple Moving Average

dapat dilihat bahwa nilai minimum MAD

Weighted Moving Average

nimal dapat dilihat bahwa nilai minimum MAD =90.449306

Single Exponential Smoothing

mal dapat dilihat bahwa nilai minimum

Single Moving Ave

Single Moving Average dengan = 0.6

ing Average dengan = 0.6

Single Moving Average dengan = 0.8

Single Moving Average

rmal. Tidak ada 4 dari 5 data

Plot Data Seasonal (Dongkrak A)

Plot Data : Seasonal

Triple Exponential Smoothing

dilihat bahwa nilai minimum MAD = 232,366814; nilai

Hilangkan link dari file excel lainnya! Update

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