RISK RETURN

Current riskfree rate =

Number of periods of data=

6.50%
53

Risk premium for stocks=

Riskfree rate during period =

10

5.50%
6.00%

Current stock price=

Current Annual DPS =

RISK RETURN
Time period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Index
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Price(Stock)
$30.75
$28.00
$27.75
$27.50
$26.38
$26.00
$28.25
$26.00
$25.75
$25.50
$28.50
$29.25
$28.25
$27.75
$26.00
$28.50
$27.25
$23.00
$18.25
$23.00
$19.50
$20.25
$23.00
$21.00
$31.25
$38.00
$38.50
$47.00
$43.88
$44.00
$47.75
$52.75
$57.75
$26.00
$21.50
$26.50

DPS(Stock)

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

Split Factor
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1.5
1
1

Index Level
179.63
181.19
180.66
179.83
189.55
191.85
190.92
188.63
182.08
189.82
202.17
211.28
211.78
226.92
238.90
235.52
247.35
250.84
236.12
252.93
231.32
243.98
249.22
242.17
274.08
284.20
289.20
288.36
290.10
304.10
318.66
329.80
321.83
251.79
230.30
247.08

11

Return(Stock) Return(Mkt)
-8.94%
-0.89%
-0.90%
-4.07%
-1.44%
8.65%
-7.96%
-0.96%
-0.97%
11.76%
2.63%
-3.42%
-1.77%
-6.31%
9.62%
-4.39%
-15.60%
-20.65%
26.03%
-15.22%
3.85%
13.58%
-8.70%
48.81%
21.60%
1.32%
22.08%
-6.64%
0.27%
8.52%
10.47%
9.48%
-32.47%
-17.31%
23.26%

0.87%
-0.29%
-0.46%
5.41%
1.21%
-0.48%
-1.20%
-3.47%
4.25%
6.51%
4.51%
0.24%
7.15%
5.28%
-1.41%
5.02%
1.41%
-5.87%
7.12%
-8.54%
5.47%
2.15%
-2.83%
13.18%
3.69%
1.76%
-0.29%
0.60%
4.83%
4.79%
3.50%
-2.42%
-21.76%
-8.53%
7.29%

(R(jt)-Rj)^2
0.011087348
0.00061475
0.000618745
0.003202751
0.000916299
0.004994656
0.009122466
0.00064928
0.000654046
0.010359469
0.000109207
0.002505365
0.001126589
0.006229731
0.006446205
0.003567103
0.029525166
0.049456121
0.059735461
0.028237272
0.000510577
0.014384856
0.010572385
0.223000846
0.040053785
7.33158E-06
0.041989599
0.006764826
0.000172419
0.004811044
0.007893693
0.006228547
0.11596811
0.035699271
0.046955664

RISK RETURN
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

$25.50
$28.25
$29.38
$31.00
$30.75
$36.13
$34.75
$28.00
$27.50
$24.75
$20.25
$23.75
$26.00
$25.75
$26.25
$29.00
$32.50
$29.00
$30.50
$30.00
$32.25
$33.75
$34.75
$34.50

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

257.07
267.82
258.89
261.33
262.16
273.50
272.02
261.52
271.91
278.97
273.30
277.72
297.47
288.86
294.87
309.64
320.52
317.98
346.08
351.45
349.15
340.36
345.99
353.40

12

-3.77%
10.78%
4.00%
5.51%
-0.81%
17.50%
-3.82%
-19.42%
-1.79%
-10.00%
-18.18%
17.28%
9.47%
-0.96%
1.94%
10.48%
12.07%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%

4.04%
4.18%
-3.33%
0.94%
0.32%
4.33%
-0.54%
-3.86%
3.97%
2.60%
-2.03%
1.62%
7.11%
-2.89%
2.08%
5.01%
3.51%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%

0.002873114
0.00845987
0.00058247
0.001542444
0.00057265
0.025310826
0.002922591
0.044146291
0.001137222
0.013424833
0.039078871
0.024640812
0.006220675
0.00064928
1.26159E-05
0.007902556
0.010988086
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

RISK RETURN
REGRESSION STATISTICS AND RISK PARAMETERS
RISK AND PERFORMANCE MEASURES
Intercept (Alpha) =

-0.45%

Slope (Beta)=

1.778808243

Rf(1- Beta) =

-0.38%

Intercept-Rf(1-Beta)=

-0.07%

VARIANCE STATISTICS
Variance of the stock=

0.019110514

Variance of the market =

0.002779917

Systematic variance=
Unsystematic variance=
R squared =

0.0087961
0.010314414
46.03%

USING BETA
In estimating expected returns:
Riskfree Rate =

6.50%

Historical return premium=

5.50%

Expected return=

16.28%

In forecasting prices:
Current price=
Annualized DPS=

$35.00
$0.00

Predicted prices:
- One year from now

$40.70

13

RISK RETURN
- Two years from now

$47.33

- Three years from now

$55.03

- Four years from now

$63.99

- Five years from now

$74.41

14

RISK RETURN
$35.00
$0.00

15

RISK RETURN
(R(mt)-R(m))^2
6.00522E-06
0.000197689
0.000247412
0.001841781
9.97856E-07
0.000255444
0.00053498
0.00210306
0.00098431
0.002908074
0.001150974
7.68874E-05
0.00364263
0.001735461
0.000639243
0.001528357
8.84757E-06
0.004874539
0.003606908
0.009326486
0.001900463
0.000106959
0.001554199
0.014552047
0.000665044
4.1708E-05
0.000197111
2.60197E-05
0.001378202
0.001350115
0.000567574
0.001246177
0.052333654
0.009309158
0.00381015

(R(jt)-R(j))
(R(mt)-R(m))
0.000258035
0.00034861
0.000391261
-0.002428738
-3.0238E-05
-0.001129537
0.002209148
0.001168535
-0.000802361
0.005488725
0.000354534
0.000438897
-0.002025771
-0.003288078
-0.002029948
-0.002334911
-0.000511103
0.015526616
0.014678567
0.016228201
0.000985055
0.001240399
0.00405359
0.056965945
0.005161157
-1.74867E-05
-0.002876913
0.000419546
-0.000487472
0.00254862
0.002116662
-0.002786014
0.077904011
0.018229924
0.013375654

16

RISK RETURN
0.000858324
0.000941405
0.001978325
2.92486E-06
6.33459E-05
0.001031756
0.000273784
0.002473588
0.000817628
0.000219911
0.000989722
2.53777E-05
0.003597567
0.00160634
9.35254E-05
0.001517476
0.00057612
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

-0.001570371
0.002822086
-0.001073459
-6.71672E-05
0.00019046
0.005110243
0.000894515
0.010449867
-0.000964274
-0.001718217
0.0062191
0.000790777
0.004730676
0.001021256
3.43498E-05
0.003462938
0.00251604
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

17