Anda di halaman 1dari 9

,-677UDQVDFWLRQVRI&LYLODQG(QYLURQPHQWDO(QJLQHHULQJ9RO1R&SS

3ULQWHGLQ7KH,VODPLF5HSXEOLFRI,UDQ
6KLUD]8QLYHUVLW\

$ &2035(+(16,9(%,'12%,''(&,6,210$.,1*)5$0(:25.

)25&216758&7,21&203$1,(6
05$9$16+$'1,$  +5$-$,( $1'+5$%%$6,$1


&RQVWUXFWLRQ(QJ 0JPW$PLUNDELU8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFK7HKUDQ,5RI,UDQ
'HSWRI&LYLO(QJ$PLUNDELU8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFK+DIH]$YHQXH7HKUDQ,5RI,UDQ
(PDLOUDMDLHK#DXWDFLU


$EVWUDFW %LGGLQJ LV D VWUDWHJLF GHFLVLRQ WKDW KHOSV FRQWUDFWRU ILUPV WR VXUYLYH 7UDGLWLRQDOO\
ELGGLQJ EHKDYLRUV DUH KLJKO\ XQVWUXFWXUHG LQ FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRPSDQLHV 7KLV SDSHU GLVFXVVHV WKH
LVVXHVLQYROYHGLQHYDOXDWLQJDWHQGHUWRDVVLVWWKHPDQDJHUVRIDILUPLQPDNLQJUHOLDEOHDQGVRXQG
GHFLVLRQV7KHHPSKDVLVRIWKH ZRUNLVRQGHYHORSLQJDORJLFDOGHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ IUDPHZRUNWKDW
FRYHUVRUJDQL]DWLRQDOHQYLURQPHQWDOULVN\DQGILQDQFLDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQV
7KH PRGHO WDNHV DGYDQWDJH RI ZHOONQRZQ GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ PHWKRGV VXFK DV WKH DQDO\WLFDO
KLHUDUFK\ SURFHVV DQG WKH VLPSOH DGGLWLYH ZHLJKWLQJ 7KH PRGHOV LQSXW ZRXOG EH WKH OLQJXLVWLF
GHVFULSWLRQRIHDFKSURMHFWVYDOXHZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHGHFLVLRQFULWHULDDQGWKHRXWSXWZRXOGEHWKH
YDOXH RI HDFK SURMHFW SURSRVHG WR GHFLVLRQ PDNHUV FRQVLGHULQJ LWV FRUUHODWLRQ ZLWK H[LVWLQJ
SURMHFWV %\ PHDQV RI D FDVH VWXG\ WKH PRGHO KDV EHHQ LPSOHPHQWHG 7KH SURSRVHG GHFLVLRQ
PDNLQJ PRGHOLV IRXQGWR \LHOGVXEVWDQWLDOO\LPSURYHGVROXWLRQV ZKHQ ODUJHVL]HFRQWUDFWRUVDUH
FRQFHUQHG



.H\ZRUGV%LGQRELGFRUUHODWLRQIUDPHZRUNFRQWUDFWRUILUP


,1752'8&7,21

,QJHQHUDOSURMHFWVDUHDZDUGHGWRFRQWUDFWRUVYLDWHQGHUV7KHSUHSDUDWLRQRIDELGGLQJSDFNDJHLVWLPH
FRQVXPLQJDQGFRVWO\&RQWUDFWRUVSD\DWWHQWLRQWRWKHEHQHILWVRIELGGLQJYHUVXVWKHKXPDQUHVRXUFHVDQG
WKHELGGLQJFRVWVVXFKDVWKHGRFXPHQWVSULFHVDQGWKHUHTXLUHGERQGV7KXVLWLVLPSRUWDQWWRGHYHORSD
ELGGLQJVWUDWHJ\IUDPHZRUNIRUFRQVWUXFWLRQFRPSDQLHV
7KHELGGLQJSURFHVVLQYROYHVELGQRELGDQGELGSULFH RUPDUNXS GHFLVLRQV%LGQRELGGHFLVLRQLV
DVVRFLDWHGZLWKXQFHUWDLQW\DQGFRPSOH[LW\EHFDXVHRIVXEMHFWLYHFRQVLGHUDWLRQVVXFKDVWKHQDWXUHRIWKH
SURMHFW 6LQFH WKH FRQWUDFWRUV ELGGLQJ EHKDYLRUV DUH LQIOXHQFHG E\ QXPHURXV IDFWRUV UHODWHG WR ERWK WKH
VSHFLILFIHDWXUHVRIWKHSURMHFWDQGG\QDPLFDOO\FKDQJHGVLWXDWLRQVELGGLQJGHFLVLRQSUREOHPVDUHKLJKO\
XQVWUXFWXUHG7\SLFDOO\FRQWUDFWRUVPDNHWKHVHGHFLVLRQVEDVHGRQWKHLUFRPPRQVHQVHRUSULPDU\UXOHVRI
WKXPE 7KLV PD\ RU PD\ QRW OHDG WR VXERSWLPDO GHFLVLRQV 7KLV LV ZK\ PDQ\ UHVHDUFKHUV KDYH EHHQ
LQYROYHGLQGHYHORSLQJELGGLQJVWUDWHJ\PRGHOV
0RVHOKLKDVFDWHJRUL]HGELGGLQJVWUDWHJ\PRGHOVLQWRWKUHHFDWHJRULHV PRGHOVEDVHGRQSUREDELOLW\
WKHRU\ZKLFKUHTXLUHVTXDQWLWDWLYHGDWD PRGHOVEDVHGRQGHFLVLRQDQDO\VLVZKLFKDUHEDVHGRQGHFLVLRQ
PDNLQJPRGHOVDQG PRGHOVEDVHGRQNQRZOHGJHEDVHGH[SHUWV\VWHPV>@
7KLV SDSHU LQWHQGV WR DSSO\ WKH GHFLVLRQ DQDO\VLV DSSURDFK 'HFLVLRQ PDNLQJ PHWKRGRORJLHV KDYH
EHHQ FDWHJRUL]HG LQWR PXOWL DWWULEXWH GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ 0$'0  DQG PXOWL REMHFWLYH GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ
02'0  %HFDXVH RI WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH SUREOHP 0$'0 DSSURDFK LV FRQFHUQHG LQ WKH FXUUHQW
5HFHLYHGE\WKHHGLWRUV0DUFK$FFHSWHG2FWREHU
&RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU



05DYDQVKDGQLDHWDO

UHVHDUFK0$'0UHIHUVWRPDNLQJDVHOHFWLRQDPRQJVRPHFRXUVHVRIDFWLRQLQWKHSUHVHQFHRIPXOWLSOH
DQGXVXDOO\FRQIOLFWLQJDWWULEXWHV>@
0RVW RI WKH SUHYLRXV DXWKRUV IRFXVHG RQ FULVS 0$'0 PHWKRGRORJLHV EXW ELGQRELG GHFLVLRQV
UHTXLUH DSSO\LQJ YDJXH DQG LQFRPSOHWH LQIRUPDWLRQ 7KH FRQYHQWLRQDO PHWKRGV IRU ELGQRELG GHFLVLRQV
DUHLQDGHTXDWHIRUGHDOLQJZLWKWKHLPSUHFLVHRUYDJXHQDWXUHRIOLQJXLVWLFDVVHVVPHQW%LGQRELGGHFLVLRQ
PDNLQJ FRQWDLQV D PL[WXUH RI IX]]\ DQG FULVS GDWD 7R RYHUFRPH WKLV GLIILFXOW\ IX]]\ PXOWLFULWHULD
GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ PHWKRGV DUH XVHG LQ WKH IUDPHZRUN 7KH DLP RI WKLV VWXG\ LV WR XVH IX]]\ DQDO\WLF
KLHUDUFK\VLPSOHDGGLWLYHZHLJKWLQJDQGKHXULVWLFLGHDVLQDORJLFDORUGHU
7KHPDLQFRQFHUQVRIWKLVSDSHUDUH
 7R IDFLOLWDWH GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ IRU FRQWUDFWRU ILUPV E\ SURSRVLQJ D PXOWLVWDJH SUDFWLFDO FRQFHSWXDO
PRGHO
 7R LGHQWLI\ FDWHJRUL]H DQG GHWHUPLQH FULWLFDO ELGQRELG IDFWRUV SDUWLFXODUO\ EDVHG RQ ,UDQLDQ
FRQWUDFWRUVLQWHUHVWV
 7R DGRSW DQ LQWHJUDWLRQ RI IX]]\ VHW WKHRU\ DSSURDFK DQG PXOWLFULWHULD GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ WR PDNH
ELGQRELGGHFLVLRQV
 7RWDNHFDUHRIQHZSURMHFWVFRUUHODWLRQZLWKOLYLQJSURMHFWVRIWKHFRPSDQ\LQGHFLVLRQPDNLQJDVD
VHSDUDWHFDWHJRU\RIFULWHULD
 7RSUHVHQWDPXOWLVWDJHELGQRELGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVV

 /,7(5$785(6859(<

$KPDGDQG0LQNDUDK6KDVKDQG$EGXOKDGL+HJD]\DQG0RVHOKLDQG7LQJDQG0LOOVZHUHVRPHRIWKH
ELGQRELGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJFRQWULEXWRUVSULRUWR>@7KLVSDSHULVIRFXVHGRQJLYLQJVWDWHRIWKH
DUWPDLQH[LVWLQJPRGHOVSDUWLFXODUO\UHJDUGLQJWKHPRGHOVDQGNH\IDFWRUVFRQFHUQHG
'R]]L HW DO SUHVHQWHG  IDFWRUV LQ HQYLURQPHQWDO FRPSDQ\ DQG SURMHFW FDWHJRULHV IRU PDUNXS
GHFLVLRQV >@ 6KDVK KDV DWWHQGHG VXEFRQWUDFWRUV ELGGLQJ SUDFWLFHV LQFOXGLQJ WKH LQYLWDWLRQ WR ELG ELG
VXEPLVVLRQ SUH DQG SRVWELG QHJRWLDWLRQV >@ 2WKHU UHVHDUFKHUV KDYH VXUYH\HG ELGGLQJ SUDFWLFHV RI
&DQDGLDQ FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRQWUDFWRUV )DFWRUVLQIOXHQFLQJ ELGGLQJ GHFLVLRQV DQGWKH SUREDELOLW\ RI ZLQQLQJ
ZHUHUDQNHGDQGFDWHJRULHVRIIDFWRUVLQIOXHQFLQJWKHIX]]\ELGGLQJPDUJLQVL]HGHWHUPLQDWLRQPRGHO
ZHUHLGHQWLILHG>@
 IDFWRUV WKDW FKDUDFWHUL]H WKH ELGGLQJ GHFLVLRQV ZHUH LGHQWLILHG DQG UDQNHG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKHLU
LPSRUWDQFHWRFRQWUDFWRUVRSHUDWLQJLQ6\ULD$VLPSOHSDUDPHWULFVROXWLRQIRUWKHELGQRELGGHFLVLRQLV
UHSRUWHGLQWKLVSDSHU>@
:RQJ HW DO DSSOLHV )X]]\ 6WRFKDVWLF 'RPLQDQFH )6'  DV D QHZ WRRO IRU PXOWLDWWULEXWH GHFLVLRQ
PDNLQJIRUSURMHFWVHOHFWLRQ>@&KXDDQG/LFROOHFWHGDOLVWRIGHWHUPLQLQJIDFWRUVIURPWKHUHVXOWVRI
SDVW UHVHDUFKHV DQG RSLQLRQV RIVL[ H[SHULHQFHG SUDFWLWLRQHUVLQ FRPSHWLWLYH ELGGLQJ DQGWKHQSURSRVHG
WKHLU$+3DSSURDFKEDVHGRQDPRGHOXVLQJIDFWRUVLQKLHUDUFKLFDORUGHU>@
'XODLPL DQG 6KDQ KDYH VKRZQ WKDW WKH VL]H RI WKH FRQWUDFWRU ZRXOG KDYH D VLJQLILFDQW EHDULQJ RQ
IDFWRUV WKDW ZRXOG LQIOXHQFH WKH ELG PDUNXS GHFLVLRQ )RUW\ IDFWRUV ZHUH LGHQWLILHG DQG D VXUYH\ ZDV
FRQGXFWHGLQ6LQJDSRUH7KHIDFWRUVZHUHFDWHJRUL]HGLQSURMHFWFKDUDFWHULVWLFVFRPSDQ\FKDUDFWHULVWLFV
ELGGLQJVLWXDWLRQHFRQRPLFHQYLURQPHQWDQGSURMHFWGRFXPHQWDWLRQ>@
$ PHWKRGIRUELGQRELGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJXVLQJIX]]\OLQJXLVWLFKDVEHHQGHYLVHGE\/LQDQG&KHQ,Q
WKLVDSSURDFKDQDWXUDOIUDPHZRUNIRUUHSUHVHQWDWLRQDQGPDQLSXODWLRQLQDVLWXDWLRQZLWKLQFRPSOHWHGDWD
DQG YDJXH HQYLURQPHQWV LV FRQVWLWXWHG 0DQDJHUV DVVHVV FULWHULD XVLQJ D VHW RI OLQJXLVWLF WHUPV 7HUP
YDOXHVDUHWKHQDSSUR[LPDWHGE\WKHLUPHPEHUVKLSIXQFWLRQVDQGE\XVLQJIX]]\ORJLFDULWKPHWLF>@
,-677UDQVDFWLRQVRI&LYLODQG(QYLURQPHQWDO(QJLQHHULQJ9ROXPH1XPEHU&)HEUXDU\

$ FRPSUHKHQVLYHELGQRELGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ




(JHPHQDQG0RKDPHGPDGHHIIRUWVWRXQFRYHUNH\IDFWRUVLQIOXHQFLQJELGQRELGDQGPDUNXSVL]H
LQ1RUWKHUQ&\SUXVDQG7XUNLVKFRQVWUXFWLRQPDUNHWV>@
8VLQJ IX]]\ VHW WKHRU\ LQ WKH 0$'0 SUREOHP ZDV ILUVW GRQH LQ  )X]]\ 0XOWLSOH$WWULEXWH
'HFLVLRQ 0DNLQJ )0$'0  FDQ FRYHU WKH XQFHUWDLQW\ DQG YDJXH QDWXUH RI FRQVWUXFWLRQ SUREOHPV
SURSHUO\8VLQJ)0$'0KDVUHFHQWO\EHFRPHPRUHFRPPRQLQFRQVWUXFWLRQLQGXVWU\UHVHDUFKHV=LDUDHW
DOXVHGIX]]\$+3IRUPRGHOLQJDV\VWHPWKDWLPSOHPHQWHGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHSULRULW\SURMHFWV>@+XDQJHW
DOXWLOL]HGIX]]\$+3IRUVHOHFWLRQRI5 'SURMHFWV>@=KDQJHWDOXVHGIX]]\$+3PHWKRGIRUULVN
DVVHVVPHQWRIMRLQWYHQWXUHFRQVWUXFWLRQSURMHFWVLQ&KLQD>@2WKHUUHVHDUFKHUVOLNH&KDRHWDO&DUUHW
DODQG+DQDQG'LNHPDQXVHGIX]]\VHWWKHRU\LQWKHLUUHVHDUFKHV>@'HVSLWHWKHPDMRUDGYDQWDJHV
RIIX]]\VHWWKHRU\DQG0$'0PHWKRGVLQWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQLQGXVWU\WKHUHDUHIHZUHVHDUFKHVLQWKHDUHD
HVSHFLDOO\ UHJDUGLQJ WKH ELGQRELG SUREOHP 7KH DXWKRUV DWWHPSWHG WR RYHUFRPH WKH GHILFLHQFLHV RI
SUHYLRXVPRGHOVE\SURSRVLQJDORFDOL]HGFRQFHSWXDOPRGHO

 352326('%,'12%,''(&,6,210$.,1*)5$0(:25.

7KH GHFLVLRQ WKHRU\ DSSURDFK VXJJHVWV FHUWDLQ IDFWRUV LQ WHUPV RI ZKLFK D SURMHFW SURSRVDO PLJKW EH
HYDOXDWHG DQG GHULYHV D VFRULQJ PRGHO ZKHUHE\ D UDWLQJ RQ DQ HPSLULFDO VFDOH LV PDGH IRU HDFK IDFWRU
FRQVLGHUHGDQGWKHVHUDWLQJVDUHFRPELQHGHLWKHUE\PXOWLSOLFDWLRQRUDVDZHLJKWHGVXPRUDFFRUGLQJWR
KHXULVWLF UXOHV WR GHULYH D QXPHULFDO VFRUH IRU HDFK SURMHFW 6R WKH VHOHFWHG SURMHFWV DUH WKRVH ZLWK WKH
KLJKHVWVFRUHVWKHQXPEHURISURMHFWVVHOHFWHGIRUELGGLQJEHLQJGHWHUPLQHGE\WKHFRQVWUDLQWRIWKHWRWDO
DYDLODEOHUHVRXUFHV
7KLVUHVHDUFKSURSRVHVDPXOWLVWDJHELGQRELGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVV

6WHS ,GHQWLI\WKHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJFULWHULD
)RU WKH FXUUHQW VWXG\ D FRPSUHKHQVLYH VXUYH\ RI WKH IDFWRUV LQIOXHQFLQJ WKH ELGGLQJ GHFLVLRQ KDV EHHQ
GRQHE\WKHDXWKRUVDQGWKHUHVXOWZDVDOLVWRIIDFWRUVH[WUDFWHGIURPSUHYLRXVDFDGHPLFZRUNVDOVR
WKHRSLQLRQVRIH[SHUWVZLWKDQLQWHUYLHZLQJDSSURDFKZHUHFRQVLGHUHG

6WHS 6FUHHQWKHFULWHULDDQGGHFRPSRVHWKHSUREOHPWRKLHUDUFKLFDORUGHU
,QRUGHUWRDYRLGRYHUODSVDQGFRYHUDOOWKHLVVXHVIDFWRUVKDYHEHHQVHOHFWHGWKURXJKWKHSULPDU\
IDFWRUVE\GLVFXVVLRQVRIH[SHUWVLQWKHELGGLQJDUHD7KHGHFLVLRQVZHUHPDGHRQFRQVHQVXV
0LOOHU WKHRU\ VD\V WKDW VHYHQ SOXV RU PLQXV WZR UHSUHVHQWV WKH JUHDWHVW DPRXQW RI LQIRUPDWLRQ DQ
REVHUYHUFDQJLYHDERXWDQREMHFWRQWKHEDVLVRIDQDEVROXWHMXGJPHQW>@7KHUHIRUHWKHH[SHUWVZHUH
DVNHGWRGHFRPSRVHWKHIDFWRUVLQWRRUFOXVWHUV7KHLUHQGHDYRUVHQGHGLQFDWHJRULHVRIFULWHULD
FRQVLVWLQJRIVXEFULWHULDZKLFKLVVKRZQLQ7DEOH

6WHS 3DLUZLVHFRPSDULVRQRIGHFLVLRQFULWHULD
7KH DQDO\WLF KLHUDUFK\ SURFHVV $+3  LV RQH RI WKH PRVW ZLGHO\ XVHG PXOWLSOHFULWHULD GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ
DSSURDFKHV$+3KDVEHHQXVHGLQFLYLOHQJLQHHULQJE\PDQ\UHVHDUFKHUVVXFKDV0XVWDIDDQG$O%DKDU
6KHQHWDO$OKD]PLDQG0F&DIIHU&DUORVDQG&RVWDDQG=LDUDHWDODQG+XDQJHWDO>DQG
@7KLVSDSHUDSSOLHVWKHSDLUZLVHFRPSDULVRQIRUZHLJKWLQJHDFKGHFLVLRQPDNLQJFULWHULRQLQVWHS
DQGVWHS

6WHS &RQVLVWHQF\DQDO\VLVDQGILQDOL]LQJHDFKFULWHULRQVZHLJKW
2QH RI WKH PDMRU FDSDELOLWLHV RI $+3 LV WKDW LW FDQ PHDVXUH WKH FRQVLVWHQF\ RI D GHFLVLRQ PDNHU >@
&RQVLVWHQF\ ,QGH[ &,  DQG &RQVLVWHQF\ 5DWLR &5  DUH WZR LQGLFHV FRPPRQO\ XVHG WR YHULI\ WKH
FRQVLVWHQF\ RI SDLUZLVH FRPSDULVRQV 7KH &, LV WKH YDULDQFH LQ HUURUV RFFXUULQJ LQ SDLUZLVH
FRPSDULVRQV DQG LV FRPSXWHG DFFRUGLQJ WR (T   7KH &5 LV WKH UDWLR RI &, DQG WKH UDQGRP
)HEUXDU\,-677UDQVDFWLRQVRI&LYLODQG(QYLURQPHQWDO(QJLQHHULQJ9ROXPH1XPEHU&



05DYDQVKDGQLDHWDO

FRQVLVWHQF\ LQGH[ 5,  REWDLQHG E\ (T   7KH 5, UHSUHVHQWV WKH DYHUDJH FRQVLVWHQF\ LQGH[ RYHU
QXPHURXV UDQGRP HQWULHV RI WKH VDPH RUGHU UHFLSURFDO PDWULFHV ,I &5 WKH HVWLPDWH LV DFFHSWHG
RWKHUZLVHDQHZFRPSDULVRQPDWUL[LVVROLFLWHGXQWLO&5 6DDW\ 

O PD[  Q
 
&, 
Q 

&, 
&5
 
5, 

,QWKLVVWHSWKHZHLJKWVDUHDVVHVVHGIURPWKHFRQVLVWHQF\DQDO\VLVSRLQWRIYLHZ)LQDOLQFRQVLVWHQF\
LVHTXDOWRZKLFKLVOHVVWKDQ7KHUHIRUHWKHZHLJKWVDUHDFFHSWDEOH

&ULWHULD

2UJDQL]DWLRQDO
FRQVLGHUDWLRQLQ
ELGGLQJ

3URMHFW
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV

7DEOH%LGQRELGFULWHULDKLHUDUFK\


6XEFULWHULD
&RPSDQ\ZRUNORDGDQGQHHGIRUZRUN
3URMHFWSUHVWLJHSXEOLFH[SRVXUHDQGLWVVWUDWHJLFILWQHVVWRSROLF\
3URMHFWFOLHQWVXSHUYLVRUDQGRWKHUVWDNHKROGHUVFKDUDFWHULVWLFV
&RPSHWLWRUV
DSSURDFKDQGWKHSUREDELOLW\RIZLQQLQJWKHELG
$YDLODELOLW\RIWLPHDQGKXPDQUHVRXUFHIRUWHQGHULQJ
3URMHFWFRPSOH[LW\DQGFRPSDQ\VIDPLOLDULW\ZLWKWKLVNLQGRIZRUN
'XUDWLRQRIWKHSURMHFWDQGLWVVFKHGXOHIHDVLELOLW\
6LWHFRQGLWLRQV $FFHVVLELOLW\DQG6SDFHIRU:RUN 
7KHDYDLODELOLW\RIWKHQHHGHGPDWHULDOHTXLSPHQWVXEFRQWUDFWRUV
DQGVXSSOLHUV
&RQVWUXFWDELOLW\RIWKHZRUNPHWKRGDQGWHFKQLFDOGRFXPHQWV
+DYLQJQRUHVRXUFHSULFHIOXFWXDWLRQDQGJHQHUDOLQIODWLRQHIIHFWV
'LVEXUVLQJSD\PHQWZLWKRXWGHOD\V
6XLWDEOHFOLPDWHDQGZHDWKHUDQGJHRJUDSKLFDOFRQGLWLRQV
6WDEOLQJODZVVWDQGDUGVDQGUHTXLUHPHQWV

5LVN
/DFNRISUREDEOHFODLPVDQGWKHLUHIIHFWV

x
x
x
x
x

UHIHUHQFH
(JHPHQ 
0RKDPHG
&KXDDQG/L
&KXDHWDO
3DXODQG&DUU

$OVXJDLU
6KDVKDQG
$EGXOBKDQGL
(JHPHQ 
0RKDPHG
)D\HN
&DJQRHWDO
&KXDDQG/L
0RVHOKLHWDO
$OVXJDLU
6KDVKDQG
$EGXOBKDQGL
+DQ 'LNHPDQ

(JHPHQ 
0RKDPHG
&KXDDQG/L
'LNHPDQHWDO

$O6DOPDQ
.ZDNDQG/DSODFH

=KDQJDQG=RX

(JHPHQ 
0RKDPHG
&DJQRHWDO
&KXDDQG/L
&KXDHWDO
0RVHOKLHWDO
$OVXJDLU

x
x

(JHPHQ 
0RKDPHG
&KXDDQG/L
9HUDJDUD

x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x

x
x
x

)LQDQFLDO
FRQVLGHUDWLRQV

3URMHFWV
6\QHUJ\
FRUUHODWLRQDQG
3RUWIROLRHIIHFWV

([SHFWHGEHQHILWORVVDQGLWVUDWHRIUHWXUQ
3URMHFWFDVKIORZDQGSD\PHQWFRQGLWLRQV
7HQGHULQJERQGVL]HELGGLQJGRFXPHQWSULFH
&OLHQWVILQDQFLDOFDSDELOLW\DQGLWVSD\PHQWSROLF\

7KHYDOXHRISURMHFWDGYDQFHGSD\PHQWDQGLWVPD[LPXPUHTXLUHG
FDVK

3URMHFWGLVWDQFHIURPH[LVWLQJSURMHFWVDQGIDFLOLWLHVRIWKHFRPSDQ\
7KHVLPLODULW\RIWKHSURMHFWW\SHDQGVL]HWRRWKHUFRPSDQ\SURMHFWV
3URMHFWUHVRXUFHVLPLODULW\DQGLWVLQIOXHQFHRQH[LVWLQJSURMHFWV
SHUIRUPDQFH
7KHVLPLODULW\RIFOLHQWRUVXSHUYLVRUWRWKHH[LVWLQJSURMHFWV
3URMHFWFDVKIORZLQWHUUHODWLRQZLWKH[LVWLQJSURMHFWV

,-677UDQVDFWLRQVRI&LYLODQG(QYLURQPHQWDO(QJLQHHULQJ9ROXPH1XPEHU&)HEUXDU\

$ FRPSUHKHQVLYHELGQRELGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ




6WHS 'HILQHIX]]\PHPEHUVKLSIXQFWLRQVIRUOLQJXLVWLFYDULDEOHV
7KHUHDUH VHYHUDO ZD\V IRU GHULYLQJ 0HPEHUVKLS )XQFWLRQV 0)V OLNH H[SHULPHQWDO GDWD SHUFHSWLRQ RI
OLQJXLVWLFWHUPVDQGWKHVLPXODWLRQRIUHDOLW\,QWKLVSDSHUWULDQJXODU0)VIRUUHSUHVHQWLQJOLQJXLVWLFWHUPV
ZHUHXVHG7DEOHVKRZVWKHWULDQJXODUPHPEHUVKLSIXQFWLRQVUHSUHVHQWLQJOLQJXLVWLFWHUPV

7DEOH&RUUHVSRQGLQJIX]]\0)VWROLQJXLVWLFWHUPV

/LQJXLVWLFWHUPV

7ULDQJXODU)X]]\0)

+LJK + 

 

9HU\+LJK 9+ 

 

0HGLXP 0 

 

/RZ / 
9HU\/RZ 9/ 

 
 

6WHS 'HWHUPLQHIX]]\VLPSOHDGGLWLYHZHLJKWLQJ )6$: XWLOLW\IXQFWLRQ


,Q )X]]\ 6$: )6$:  WKH YDOXHV RI HDFK DOWHUQDWLYH UHJDUGLQJ HDFK DWWULEXWH FDQ EH H[SUHVVHG LQ
OLQJXLVWLF WHUPV (T   +HUH IX]]\ DULWKPHWLF LV DSSOLHG IRU FRPSXWDWLRQ 7KH WUDGHRIIV DPRQJ DOO
DWWULEXWHVDUHFRPSHQVDWRU\7KLVPHDQVWKDWWKHHVWLPDWLRQRIHDFKDWWULEXWHLVWRWDOO\LQGHSHQGHQWRQWKH
RWKHUVDQGWKLVGRHVJXDUDQWHHWKHILQDOVFRUHWREHPRUHUHOLDEOH7KHDSSOLFDWLRQRIIX]]\VHWVDOORZVWKH
0$'0 PHWKRG WR EH IOH[LEOH LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK YDJXH LQIRUPDWLRQ 7KH UHVHDUFK GHYHORSV D IX]]\
0$'0IRUPXODWLRQIRUHYHU\SURMHFWVFRULQJ

8

Z U
Q

 


:KHUH Z LVWKHZHLJKWRIDWWULEXWH L DQG U LVWKHUDWHRIDOWHUQDWLYH M WKZLWKUHVSHFWWRDWWULEXWH L WK

6WHS &RQVLGHUWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIQHZDQGFXUUHQWSURMHFWV
3RWHQWLDOSURMHFWVDQGDOVROLYLQJRQHVZRXOGEHLGHQWLILHGDQGWKHLUFKDUDFWHULVWLFVZRXOGEHHYDOXDWHGLQ
WKLVVWHS

6WHS 'HFLVLRQPDNHUVHVWLPDWHRIWKHFULWHULD
3RWHQWLDO XVHUV LQFOXGH PDQDJHUV ZKR KDYH WKH DXWKRULW\ WR PDNH D GHFLVLRQ WKH WHFKQLFLDQV DQG NH\
ELGGLQJ VWDII RI WKH FRPSDQ\ ZKR FDQ LQIOXHQFHWKH VWUDWHJ\ RI WKH FRPSDQ\ FDQ PDNH WKH DSSURSULDWH
HVWLPDWHVRISURMHFWVLQWKHOLQJXLVWLFWHUPVGHILQHG7KLVUHSUHVHQWVWKHSURMHFWYDOXHUHJDUGLQJHDFKVXE
FULWHULRQ

6WHS )X]]\UHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKHGHFLVLRQPDNHUVHVWLPDWLRQ
7KLV UHVHDUFK GHILQHV ILYH OLQJXLVWLF WHUPV 9HU\ +LJK +LJK 0HGLXP /RZ 9HU\ /RZ WKDW
VKRXOG EH WUDQVIHUUHG WR PDWKHPDWLFDO ODQJXDJH LQ 0HPEHUVKLS )XQFWLRQ 0)  VKDSH /LQJXLVWLF WHUPV
ZLOOEHIX]]LILHGE\WKHIX]]\QXPEHUVGHILQHGLQVWHS 7DEOH 

6WHS ,PSRUWLQJWKHZHLJKWVDQGHVWLPDWHVRISURMHFWVWRWKHVRIWZDUH
7RLPSOHPHQWWKHPRGHODVRIWZDUHSURJUDPZDVGHYHORSHG7KHZHLJKWVRIHDFKFULWHULRQDQGWKHYDOXH
RIHDFKDOWHUQDWLYHZRXOGEHLQVHUWHGLQWKHJUDSKLFDOXVHULQWHUIDFH$IWHUUXQQLQJWKHSURJUDPDIX]]\
PHPEHUVKLSIXQFWLRQRIWKHILQDOVFRUHRIHDFKSURMHFWZRXOGEHVKRZQ

6WHS (YDOXDWLQJDQGUDQNLQJWKHSURMHFWV
7KLV SDSHU XVHV D GHIX]]LI\LQJ DSSURDFK WR GHWHUPLQH HYHU\ SURMHFWV VFRUH $ FULVS QXPEHU LV GHILQHG
ZKLFK LV QDPHG 'HIX]]LILHG ,QGH[ RI &RPSHWHQFH ',&  ',& LV D QRUPDOL]HG VFRUH RXW RI  7KLV
LQGH[LVFDOFXODWHGDXWRPDWLFDOO\E\WKHSURJUDPDQGEDVHGRQIX]]\DULWKPHWLFDSSURDFKHV
L

LM

LM

)HEUXDU\,-677UDQVDFWLRQVRI&LYLODQG(QYLURQPHQWDO(QJLQHHULQJ9ROXPH1XPEHU&



05DYDQVKDGQLDHWDO

6WHS 6HOHFWDSSURSULDWHSURMHFWVIRUELGGLQJ
%DVHGRQWKHDSSURDFKPHQWLRQHGLQVWHSWKHSURMHFWVDUHUDQNHGDQGWKHEHVWVHOHFWHGIRUELGGLQJ,Q
WKLVVWHSDQDSSURSULDWHFDQGLGDWHSURMHFWZLOOEHVHOHFWHG7KHQELGGRFXPHQWVZRXOGEHSUHSDUHGDQGWKH
PDUNXSGHFLVLRQDQGIXUWKHUELGGLQJRSHUDWLRQZLOOEHGRQH

 &$6(678'<

,QWKLVVHFWLRQDELGQRELGHYDOXDWLRQIRUDQLQWHUQDWLRQDOODUJHVL]H,UDQLDQFRQVWUXFWLRQFRPSDQ\LVFLWHG
WRGHPRQVWUDWHWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHSURSRVHGPHWKRG7KHFRPSDQ\VQDPHDQGLWVSURMHFWVDUHSUHVHQWHG
LQV\PEROLFWHUPV7KHFRPSDQ\KDVEHHQSUHVHQWHGE\7&&H[LVWLQJSURMHFWVDUHDEEUHYLDWHGLQ(3Q
DQGSRWHQWLDOO\QHZSURMHFWVDUHVKRZQE\13Q
7&& &RQVWUXFWLRQ &RPSDQ\ ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG LQ  LQ 7HKUDQ ,UDQ 6LQFH WKHQ LW KDV H[HFXWHG
QXPHURXV GRPHVWLFLQWHUQDWLRQDO SURMHFWV 3UHVLGHQW RI 'HSXW\ 6WUDWHJLF 3ODQQLQJ DQG &RQWURO
UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKH ,UDQLDQ JRYHUQPHQW KDV UDQNHG 7&& DV D *UDGH $ FRQWUDFWRU ZKLFK PDNHV LW
DXWRPDWLFDOO\ SUHTXDOLILHG IRU LPSOHPHQWLQJ DQ\ ODUJH SXEOLF SURMHFW LQ WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ ILHOG LQ ,UDQ
YDOXLQJPRUHWKDQPLOOLRQ86
7&& KDV DFTXLUHG YDVW DQG GLYHUVLILHG NQRZOHGJH DQG H[SHULHQFH LQ PDQ\ FRQVWUXFWLRQ GRPDLQV
HVSHFLDOO\ LQ URDGV KLJKZD\V LQIUDVWUXFWXUHV UDLOZD\V DLUSRUWV XUEDQ DQG ZDVWHZDWHU WUHDWPHQW
FRQVWUXFWLRQSURMHFWV
7KH PDQDJHUV RI WKH FRPSDQ\ DUH LQWHUHVWHG LQ GLYHUVLI\LQJ 7&& DFWLYLWLHV LQ GDP FRQVWUXFWLRQ
LQGXVWULDOFRPSOH[HVDQGPHWURFRQVWUXFWLRQGLVFLSOLQHV,QOLQHZLWKLWVQHZORQJWHUPSROLF\7&&KDV
GHFLGHGWRH[SDQGLWVLQWHUQDWLRQDODFWLYLWLHVHVSHFLDOO\LQWKHERRPLQJPDUNHWRIWKH8$(7KHFRPSDQ\
LVHDJHUWRDGGQHZODUJHVFDOHGLYHUVLILHGVSHFLDOSURMHFWVWRLWVSRUWIROLRRISURMHFWV&XUUHQWO\7&&LV
HQJDJHGLQGLIIHUHQWSURMHFWVZKLFKDUH
(3ZKLFKLVDNPKLJKZD\LQ$VDORX\HK VRXWKRI,UDQ LWVFOLHQWLVWKH0LQLVWU\RI3HWUROHXPD
PLOOLRQ86SURMHFWSHUFHQWFRPSOHWH
(3ZKLFKLVDQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHSURMHFWQHDU,VIDKDQ FHQWHURI,UDQ LWVFOLHQWLV,VIDKDQ0XQLFLSDOLW\
D PLOOLRQ86SURMHFWSHUFHQWFRPSOHWH
(3ZKLFKLVDZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQWSURMHFWLQ7HKUDQ FDSLWDORI,UDQ LWVFOLHQWLVWKH0LQLVWU\RI
3RZHUDPLOOLRQ86SURMHFWSHUFHQWFRPSOHWH
(3ZKLFKLVDQDLUSRUWWHUPLQDOSURMHFWLQ0DVKKDG QRUWKHDVWRI,UDQ LWVFOLHQWLVWKH0LQLVWU\RI
5RDGDQG7UDQVSRUWDWLRQDPLOOLRQ86SURMHFWSHUFHQWFRPSOHWH
7KHUHDUHWKUHHVLPXOWDQHRXVSURMHFWVLQWKHPDUNHW%HFDXVHRIVRPHFRQVLGHUDWLRQVVXFKDVOLPLWHG
UHVRXUFHV7&&ZDQWVWRELGRQRQO\RQHRIWKHIROORZLQJWHQGHUV
13ZKLFKLVD.PUDLOZD\ZD\QHDU6KLUD] VRXWKRI,UDQ LWVFOLHQWLVWKH0LQLVWU\RI5RDGDQG
7UDQVSRUWDWLRQDPLOOLRQ86SURMHFWFRPSDUDWLYHO\ZHOOVXSSRUWHGE\WKHFOLHQWHTXLSPHQWUHVRXUFHV
DUHDYDLODEOHJRRGVLWHFRQGLWLRQVSDUWLFXODUZRUNDVRILWVWXQQHODQGEULGJHVUHODWLYHO\PLOGFOLPDWH
13 ZKLFK LV DQ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH SURMHFW QHDU 'XEDL 8$( LWV FOLHQW LV 'XEDL 0XQLFLSDOLW\ D 
PLOOLRQ 86 SURMHFW ZHOO VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH FOLHQW HTXLSPHQW UHVRXUFHV DUH DYDLODEOH UHVWULFWHG VLWH
FRQGLWLRQVDVLPSOHZRUNUHJDUGLQJWHFKQLFDOLVVXHVDULGFOLPDWH
13 ZKLFK LV D GDP SURMHFW LQ /RUHVWDQ ZHVW RI ,UDQ  LWV FOLHQW LV WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI 3RZHU D 
PLOOLRQ86SURMHFWGHOD\HGSD\PHQWLVSUHGLFWHGOLPLWHGORFDOUHVRXUFHVDUHDYDLODEOHVLWHDFFHVVLELOLW\
LVGLIILFXOWDGLIIHUHQWZRUNIRU7&&FROGZLWKKHDY\VQRZIDOOFOLPDWH
7KHSURSRVHGPRGHOZDVDSSOLHGIRUWKHFDVH,QRUGHUWRLPSOHPHQWWKHSURJUDPWKHH[SHUWVZHUH
DVNHGWRGHVFULEHWKHLURSLQLRQDERXWHYHU\SURMHFWYDOXHYHUVXVFRUUHVSRQGLQJFULWHULD:HLJKWVRIHDFK
FULWHULRQDQGWKHYDOXHRIHYHU\SURMHFW SURMHFWGHJUHH DUHLPSRUWHGWRWKHSURJUDP)LJXUHVKRZVRQH
RIWKHRXWSXWVRIWKHVRIWZDUHSDFNDJHWKDWVKRZVUHVXOWVIRU13

,-677UDQVDFWLRQVRI&LYLODQG(QYLURQPHQWDO(QJLQHHULQJ9ROXPH1XPEHU&)HEUXDU\

$ FRPSUHKHQVLYHELGQRELGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ




)LJ)036SDFNDJHUHVXOWVIRUSURMHFW13

)LQDOO\WKHSURMHFWVZHUHUDQNHGEDVHGRQWKHLUIX]]\PHPEHUVKLSIXQFWLRQV7DEOHUHSUHVHQWVWKH
',&VRIWKHSURMHFWV7KHPDQDJHUVRIWKHFRPSDQ\VHOHFWHGDVDPLQLPXPUHTXLUHG',&IRUDSURMHFW
WR EH VHOHFWHG 7KHUHIRUH 13 DQG 13 SDVVHG WKH WKUHVKROG $IWHU IXUWKHU LQYHVWLJDWLRQV WKH FRPSDQ\
GHFLGHGWRELGRQ13



7DEOH3URMHFWVILQDOUDQNLQJDQGWKHLU',&V
5DQNLQJ

3URMHFW

13




',&

13



13





&21&/86,21

7KLV SDSHU UHSRUWV WKH RXWFRPHV RI D ELGQRELG GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ PRGHO IRU FRQWUDFWRUV LQ WKH ILHOG RI
FRQVWUXFWLRQ LQGXVWU\ 7KH PRGHO DWWHPSWHG WR FRYHU WKH VKRUWFRPLQJV RI SUHYLRXV PRGHOV SDUWLFXODUO\
UHJDUGLQJ FRPSUHKHQVLYHQHVV )X]]\ VHWV WKHRU\ KDV EHHQ VXFFHVVIXOO\ DSSOLHG DQG WKH XVHUV VKRZHG
VDWLVIDFWLRQLQWKHUHVXOWV
7KH FDVH VWXG\ GHPRQVWUDWHV WKH PRGHO VWUHQJWK DQG XVHUIULHQGOLQHVV IHDWXUHV RI WKH GHYHORSHG
VRIWZDUHDQGH[KLELWVLWVFDSDELOLWLHVIRUDQ\SUDFWLFDODSSOLFDWLRQ$VGHVFULEHG13ZDVILQDOO\VHOHFWHG
E\WKHPRGHOIRUELGGLQJ7KLVPDWFKHVWKHHDJHUQHVVRIWKHFRPSDQ\WRH[SDQGLWVLQWHUQDWLRQDODFWLYLWLHV
HVSHFLDOO\ LQ WKH ERRPLQJ PDUNHW RI WKH 8$( GHPRQVWUDWLQJ WKH YDOLGDWLRQ RI WKH PRGHO LQ SUDFWLFDO
DSSOLFDWLRQ
,W LV SURSRVHG WKDW WKH UHVHDUFK EH FRQWLQXHG E\ FRQVLGHULQJ WKH LQIOXHQFH RI D FRPSDQ\V
GLYHUVLILFDWLRQSROLF\RQLWVSURMHFWVHOHFWLRQGHFLVLRQLQIXWXUHDFDGHPLFZRUNV
)HEUXDU\,-677UDQVDFWLRQVRI&LYLODQG(QYLURQPHQWDO(QJLQHHULQJ9ROXPH1XPEHU&



05DYDQVKDGQLDHWDO

5()(5(1&(6

 0RVHOKL 2  'HE %   3URMHFW VHOHFWLRQ FRQVLGHULQJ ULVN &RQVWUXFWLRQ 0DQDJHPHQW DQG (FRQRPLFV
9ROSS

 &KHQ 6K -  +ZDQJ &K /   )X]]\ PXOWLSOH DWWULEXWH GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ 6SULQJHU 9HUODJ %HUOLQ
+HLGHOEHUJ

 $KPDG, 0LQNDUDK,  4XHVWLRQQDLUHVXUYH\RQELGGLQJLQFRQVWUXFWLRQ -RXUQDORI0DQDJHPHQWLQ


(QJLQHHULQJ$6&( 9RO1R

 6KDVK $ $  $EGXO+DGL 1 +   )DFWRUV DIIHFWLQJ D FRQWUDFWRUV PDUNXS VL]H GHFLVLRQ LQ 6DXGL
$UDELD&RQVWUXFWLRQ0DQDJHPHQWDQG(FRQRPLFV 

 +HJD]\7 0RVHOKL2  $QDORJ\EDVHGVROXWLRQWRPDUNXSHVWLPDWLRQSUREOHP-RXUQDORI&RPSXWLQJ


LQ&LYLO(QJLQHHULQJ 9ROSS

 7LQJ 6 &  0LOOV $   $QDO\VLV RI FRQWUDFWRUV ELGGLQJ GHFLVLRQV 3URF &,% : ,QW 6\PS RQ
3URFXUHPHQW6\V8QLYRI1DWDO'XUEDQ6RXWK$IULFD SS

 'R]]L 6 3 $ERX5L]N 6 6   8WLOLW\WKHRU\ PRGHO IRU ELG PDUNXS GHFLVLRQV $6&( -RXUQDO RI
&RQVWUXFWLRQ(QJLQHHULQJDQG0DQDJHPHQW 9RO1R

 )D\HN$*KRVKDO, $ERX5L]N6  $VXUYH\RIWKHELGGLQJSUDFWLFHVRI&DQDGLDQFLYLOHQJLQHHULQJ


FRQVWUXFWLRQFRQWUDFWRUV&DQDGLDQ-RXUQDORI&LYLO(QJLQHHULQJ 9RO1R

 6KDVK $ $   6XEFRQWUDFWRUV ELGGLQJ GHFLVLRQV $6&( -RXUQDO RI &RQVWUXFWLRQ (QJLQHHULQJ DQG
0DQDJHPHQW 9RO1R

 :DQRXV0%RXVVDEDLQH$+ /HZLV-  7RELGRUQRWWRELGDSDUDPHWULFVROXWLRQ&RQVWUXFWLRQ


0DQDJHPHQWDQG(FRQRPLFV 9RO

 :RQJ(1RUPDQ* )ODQDJDQ5  $IX]]\VWRFKDVWLFWHFKQLTXHIRUSURMHFWVHOHFWLRQ&RQVWUXFWLRQ


0DQDJHPHQWDQG(FRQRPLFV 9RO

 &KXD'.+ /L'  .H\IDFWRUVLQELGUHDVRQLQJPRGHO-RXUQDORI&RQVWUXFWLRQ(QJLQHHULQJDQG


0DQDJHPHQW 9RO1R

 'XODLPL0) 6KDQ+*  7KHIDFWRUVLQIOXHQFLQJELGPDUNXSGHFLVLRQVRIODUJHDQGPHGLXPVL]H


FRQWUDFWRUVLQ6LQJDSRUH&RQVWUXFWLRQ0DQDJHPHQWDQG(FRQRPLFV 9RO

 /LQ&7 &KHQ<7  %LGQRELGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJDIX]]\OLQJXLVWLFDSSURDFK,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDO


RI3URMHFW0DQDJHPHQW 9RO

 7DEHVK 0  'LQL 0   )X]]\ DQG QHXURIX]]\ PRGHOV IRU VKRUWWHUP ZDWHU GHPDQG IRUHFDVWLQJ LQ
7HKUDQ,UDQLDQ-RXUQDORI6FLHQFHDQG7HFKQRORJ\7UDQVDFWLRQ%(QJLQHHULQJ 9RO1R%

 (JHPHQ0 0RKDPHG$1  $IUDPHZRUN IRUFRQWUDFWRUVWRUHDFKVWUDWHJLFDOO\FRUUHFWELGQRELG


DQGPDUNXSVL]HGHFLVLRQV%XLOGLQJDQG(QYLURQPHQW 9RO

 =LDUD 0 1LJLP . (QVKDVVL $ $\\XE % 0   6WUDWHJLF ,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI ,QIUDVWUXFWXUH 3ULRULW\
3URMHFWV&DVH6WXG\LQ3DOHVWLQH$6&(-RXUQDORI,QIUDVWUXFWXUH6\VWHPV 9RO1R

 +XDQJ & &KX 3  &KLDQJ <   $ IX]]\ $+3 DSSOLFDWLRQ LQ JRYHUQPHQW VSRQVRUHG 5 ' SURMHFW
VHOHFWLRQ(OVHYLHU2PHJD

 =KDQJ *  =RX 3 ;   )X]]\ $QDO\WLFDO +LHUDUFK\ 3URFHVV 5LVN $VVHVVPHQW $SSURDFK IRU -RLQW
9HQWXUH&RQVWUXFWLRQ3URMHFWVLQ&KLQD-RXUQDORI&RQVWUXFWLRQ(QJLQHHULQJDQG0DQDJHPHQW 9RO1R


 /L &   )X]]\ ORJLF IRU HYDOXDWLQJ DOWHUQDWLYH FRQVWUXFWLRQ WHFKQRORJ\ $6&( -RXUQDO RI &RQVWUXFWLRQ
(QJLQHHULQJDQG0DQDJHPHQW 9RO1R

 &DUU 5 ,   &RPSHWLWLYH ELGGLQJ RSSRUWXQLW\ FRVWV -RXUQDO RI &RQVWUXFWLRQ (QJLQHHULQJ DQG
0DQDJHPHQW$6&( 9RO1R

,-677UDQVDFWLRQVRI&LYLODQG(QYLURQPHQWDO(QJLQHHULQJ9ROXPH1XPEHU&)HEUXDU\

$ FRPSUHKHQVLYHELGQRELGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ




 +DQ6+'LHNPDQQ-( -RQJ+2  &RQWUDFWRUV5LVNDWWLWXGHVLQWKHVHOHFWLRQRILQWHUQDWLRQDO


FRQVWUXFWLRQSURMHFWV$6&(-RXUQDORI&RQVWUXFWLRQ(QJLQHHULQJDQG0DQDJHPHQW 9RO1R

 0LOOHU*$  7KHPDJLFQXPEHUVHYHQSOXVRUPLQXVVHYHQ3V\FKRORJLFDO5HYLHZ 9RO

 0XVWDID0 $O%DKDU-  3URMHFWULVNDVVHVVPHQWXVLQJWKHDQDO\WLFDOKLHUDUFK\SURFHVV,(((7UDQV


(QJ0DQDJH

 6KHQ4/R. :DQJ.  3ULRULW\VHWWLQJLQPDLQWHQDQFHPDQDJHPHQW$PRGLILHGPXOWLDWWULEXWH


DSSURDFKXVLQJDQDO\WLFDOKLHUDUFK\SURFHVV&RQVWU0DQDJH (FRQ9RO1R

 $OKD]PL7 0F&DIIHU5  3URMHFWSURFXUHPHQWV\VWHPVHOHFWLRQPRGHO-&RQVWU(QJ0DQDJH9RO


1R

 &DUORV $  &RVWD %   7KH XVH RI PXOWLFULWHULD GHFLVLRQ DQDO\VLV WR VXSSRUW WKH VHDUFK IRU OHVV

FRQIOLFWLQJSROLF\RSWLRQVLQDPXOWLDFWRUFRQWH[W&DVHVWXG\-0XOWLFULWHULD'HFLVLRQ$QDO\VLV 9RO1R


 6DDW\ 7 /   0XOWLFULWHULD GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ WKH DQDO\WLFDO KLHUDUFK\ SURFHVV 3LWWVEXUJ 86  5:6


3XEOLFDWLRQV

)HEUXDU\,-677UDQVDFWLRQVRI&LYLODQG(QYLURQPHQWDO(QJLQHHULQJ9ROXPH1XPEHU&

Anda mungkin juga menyukai