ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

December 2014

Athena Private Wealth Newsletter

Winter Update
Summary
With fall upon us, we can now look at our last quarters economic numbers and the results have been quite favorable. Third quarter
GDP came in at 3.5% after a very healthy 4.6% second quarter. This was despite fears that a slowdown in Europe and China would
affect our growth. In addition to this strong figure from the government, we also received good news from the Institute of Supply Management, a private service, showing solid manufacturing and non-manufacturing sector growth in the economy. The ISM index is a
survey of 300 companies across the country that asks a series of 12 questions of these firms.* Additionally, earnings season has once
again beat expectations with both earnings and forward guidance favorable. Finally, the elections are behind us and the uncertainty
that has led up to them is finally over.
Assessment
Its important not to get overly excited over the day-to-day gyrations of the market as often times it is driven by unfounded fears based
on one time events that dont have much staying power. This was demonstrated in early October with the markets breaking over a variety of unfounded fears, Euro-zone collapse, China growth fears, Ebola and slowing retail sales, just to name a few. As the month progressed, economic data was released that allayed those fears and the market returned to record levels. In reality, there was a pent up
feeling that the market needed a correction and those factors provided the trigger for the decline. The recent data has been quite good
lately and it appears that we may be on the verge of a break-out from the 2- 2.5% growth we have been seeing for far too long now. Its
still too early to count on that, but the signs are decidedly more encouraging than we have seen for a long time now.
Possible Risks
Despite all the good news, there are always areas that need to be watched, that may affect our economy. Two of the fears I previously
mentioned, the Euro-zone and Chine are what concern me the most, with Europe being the greater of the two. Chinas growth has
slowed, but it still is in the 6.5 -7% range, so I dont think this will cause us much harm. The European economies have slowed to the
point where a close watch is warranted. This may very well be a short-term situation, but only time will tell. While the Euro-zone is important, it is our fourth largest trading partner behind Canada, China and Mexico, so a pullback will probably not have a large effect on
our economy. The Middle East and Russia are also areas to watch, but for the moment, that seems to be relatively stable. As always,
we will be closely watching these risks and will keep you informed on a periodic basis. Finally, with the market at record levels, a profit
taking drop is always possible, but without any fundamental justification, it wont be long lived.
What Does it all Mean
I am a firm believer in the fundamentals of the economy and all signs have been pointing in the right direction., but despite my optimism, economic events need to be closely monitored to guard against any possible pitfalls. I previously mentioned some of the risks
and while theyre not a problem at the moment, change can often happen rapidly, so we will be watchful. Your best defense to protect
assets in these times is to have a well-diversified portfolio. Dont let the headlines cloud your judgment, but rather look at all situations
over a three to four month period and react accordingly.
Regards,
Dan Stecich, Senior Vice President of Economic Research
* ISM link: www.ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm

Contact Us
Give us a call for more information about our services at (847) 299 - 8877.

Athena Private Wealth

688 Lee Street
Des Plaines, IL 60016

Investment Advice offered through Athena Advisor Services, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor

2014 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

August 2014

Athena Private Wealth Newsletter

Key Points to Consider Now

What Has Happened?

The economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than we would all like.

Russia, ISIS, and Ebola led headlines, causing continued nervousness in markets

September volatility in stock markets spiked to levels not seen since late 2011 before coming
back down to the lower levels of the past year or so.

The Federal Reserve has ended its bond buying program, indicating that the economy may be
strong enough to grow without the Fed's intervention.
How have investments fared?

The recent volatility caused a "flight to safety" during the past few months

Large domestic stocks and dividend paying investments led the field while emerging and foreign
stocks fared worse

Commodities, and precious metals in particular, fared worst as the U.S. dollar strengthened.
What should we expect?

We expect continued improvement in the U.S. economy

Europe is also showing improvement

Expect continued geopolitical saber-rattling. The U.S., U.N., and Europe are too battle-fatigued to
enforce any policies against Russia. ISIS is a serious concern as well.
What do we suggest?

First, get and remain properly (and professionally) diversified. Finding obvious bargains is difficult
right now, and chasing recent performance can end very badly.

Be careful when seeking income. That stock with an attractive dividend can still significantly decline in value.

Take a longer view and review performance over longer periods of time. Month-to-month and
even three-year performance can be deceptive. Pay attention to rolling 10-year performance
whenever possible.

Use quality managers & investments rather than chasing

Monitor your investments using proven fiduciary standards

Remember, investing is only 25% of financial planning. Don't forget the rest!

Contact Us
Give us a call for more information about our services at (847) 299 - 8877.

Athena Private Wealth

688 Lee Street
Des Plaines, IL 60016

Investment Advice offered through Athena Advisor Services, LLC, A Registered Investment Advisor