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Fall 2014

The Future of Childhood


Obesity in America

Katie Ferrara, Ting Mo, Nico Montoya,


Naomi Igboanugo, & Audrey Vu
..............................................................................
University of Notre Dame
Foresight in Business and Society

The Future of Childhood Obesity in America

Table of Contents
Abstract......................................................4
Executive Summary..................................................................5
Introduction.....................................................7
Topic in Context.......................................................8
Key Terminology to Note...........................................................8
System Boundaries and Structures............................................9
System Factors and Forces of Change.......................................9
Factor 1: Restaurant Industry and Obesity .................................9
Factor 2: Food Manufacturing and Obesity....................................10
Factor 3: Government and Obesity......................................13
Stakeholders.........................................................16
Food Manufacturers...............................................16
Fast Food Companies.....................................17
Government...........................................17
Public Schools........................................17
Technology Companies.....................................18
Parent..........................................18
Evidence-based Baseline Forecast and Trend Analysis.....................................19
Restaurant Industry...........................................21

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Food Manufacturing.............................................22
Governmental Policies and Program.......................................24
Narrative of Future Scenarios.............................................26
Now and Later: Business as Usual...........................................30
Business Implications and Strategies for Now and Later.................................31
Milk Duds: Challenges/Hard Times.............................................31
Business Implications and Strategies for Milk Duds...................................32
Mr. Goodbar: Visionary 1...........................................33
Business Implications and Strategies for Mr. Goodbar.................................34
Milky Way: Visionary 2............................................35
Business Implications and Strategies for Milky Way.......................35
Ethical Conflicts...............................................36
Conclusion..............................................................38
Works Cited.................................................39
Appendices.................................................43

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Abstract
What is the future of childhood obesity in the U.S. as it relates to changes towards healthier
lifestyles specifically in the restaurant industry, food manufacturing, and the implementation of
governmental policies? Since the 1990s, the obesity levels in children have increased
dramatically and have just recently, in the past decade, begun to level off. Various forces have
already had effects on the childhood obesity percentage in the United States. There are many
uncertainties that will change the future of obesity rates such as the development of new
technology, especially wearables, for children, the amount of governmental regulation that is
implemented as well as the success of it, and new developments within the food production
industry. Based on observations made on showing increases in government funding for schools,
as well as consumer satisfaction rates being moderate in regard to healthy food options and
other trends as well, it appears that childhood obesity will decrease slowly in the next decade to
come. This is if the future is a continuation of how obesity is acting currently. However, this is
often not the case, and so other future scenarios were also imagined that affected obesity rates
in different ways. Nevertheless, there are many potential business implications that the future
holds in regards to childhood obesity.

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Executive Summary
What is the future of childhood obesity in the U.S. as it relates to changes towards healthier
lifestyles specifically in the restaurant industry, food manufacturing, and the implementation of
governmental policies? Childhood obesity in the United States has had many notable changes
within the past 30 years. Due to the public health being a major concern for the country, when
obesity rates in children began to increase dramatically, the country took note of it. There is a
lot of business relevance attached to childhood obesity levels because the health of a person
affects everything he does. Obesity in children begins to compromise childrens health from an
early age, and many businesses are connected to the healthcare field.
For the trend analysis, the percentage of obese children in America is a key factor in seeing
where this trend goes. Childhood obesity currently has remained at a constant percentage for
the past decade or so. Different trends such as the growing demand for organic and all natural
foods, the increase in government budgets for public school funding as well as the kind of meals
being provided to children were all analyzed in order to project whether childhood obesity will
become a larger issue or diminish as a problem for America.
Based on the information found, there is a good chance that the percentage of obese children in
America will begin to slowly decline in the next ten years. This is a forecasted projection of the
current situation in regards to obesity. However, there are still many uncertainties such as the
future role of government regulation in regard to childhood obesity, the kinds of foods that will
be produced in the future, and the amount of activity children will partake in to name a few of
them. The childhood obesity problem could slowly decline, or it could change drastically,
becoming a lot better or a lot worse.
Regardless of the future of obesity levels and which way they go, businesses still have a lot of
opportunity to capitalize on them. Until obesity does not exist any longer, there are always going
to be people concerned with eliminating this unhealthy condition of living. In the next ten years,
in order to try to stay ahead of competitors, attention should be placed on wearable
technologies. They have the potential to become a social aspect of life as well as increase activity

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The Future of Childhood Obesity in America

levels in children. New social media outlets can be developed in order for people to interact and
share information about their activity levels.
Another area of business that can become a money-maker in the future is daycare centers. As
single-parent and dual-career parent homes become more popular, the time parents spend with
their children will decline. A new system of daycare facilities that encourage collaboration
between the children as well as physical activity can have a lot of success in keeping children
entertained while their parents are away as well as healthy and active.
Lastly, as the demand for healthier food products increases, businesses in the food producing
industry as well as the restaurant industry can capitalize on this demand. Although many adults
are the people demanding the healthier foods, parents are still making the decisions for what
their children are eating and therefore demand overall is high for healthy options. There is a lot
of potential of high consumer demand for products that are both nutritional and healthy. New
processes for growing and making foods are developing and businesses dealing with food intake
should investigate how far along these innovations are. Companies can take small actions such
as acquiring healthier items and marketing them or large actions like contacting laboratories and
food scientists who are creating new products that may be very successful in the years to come.

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Introduction
Obesity is a disease that can affect all races, ethnic backgrounds, and ages. In the United States,
obesity is still very much a prevalent health problem, especially in children. Over the past three
decades, childhood obesity rates have tripled in the U.S., and today, the country has some of the
highest obesity rates in the world: one out of six children is obese, and one out of three children
is overweight or obese (Ogden, Carroll, Kit, and Flegal, 2012). Although overall rates of obesity
in children have been steady since 2008, children who are obese have much higher odds of
remaining obese in adulthood, adding to the general levels of obesity in the United States.
It is critical to prevent obesity in the adolescent population because there is a present trend of
obese children remaining obese in adulthood. Habits that are formed during a young age
frequently carry into adulthood. If this epidemic is not reversed, the United States is in danger of
raising the first generation of American children who will live sicker and die younger than the
generations before them (Olshansky, Passaro, and Hershow, 2005). Children who are obese are
also susceptible to other diseases. Obesity has a 60% increased risk for new diagnoses of asthma
among children (Gilliland, Berhane, and Islam, 2003). However, Asthma is not the only disease
that obesity can create higher risks of developing. Although type 2 diabetes is generally
considered an adult illness, the increase in childhood obesity has shown correspondence to an
increasing rise of youths with diabetes, especially among adolescent minority populations (CDC).
Obese children and teens have also been found to have risk factors for cardiovascular disease,
including high cholesterol levels, high blood pressure and abnormal glucose tolerance (Dietz,
1998).
Todays society has put great emphasis on living a healthier lifestyle, an important influence on
the levels of obesity in the adolescent population. Looking into the future of U.S childhood
obesity, one of the most prominent questions is how changes towards a healthier lifestyles in
regards to the restaurant industry, food production and manufacturing tactics, and
governmental influences will affect these levels of obesity.

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Topic in Context
Key Terminology to Note
Obesity is defined as an excessively high amount of body fat or adipose tissue in relation to lean
body mass. When a child suffers from a disease similar to obesity but at a lower level, it is
described with the term overweight, which is having more body fat than is optimally healthy
(usually a BMI from 25-30). This term BMI stands for Body Mass Index, which is a number
calculated from a child's height and weight. BMI is a reliable indicator of body fatness for most
children and teens. BMI does not measure body fat directly, but research has shown that BMI
correlates to direct measures of body fat (CDC 2014). It helps to determine whether or not a
child is overweight or obese. The formula for BMI is:

Childhood obesity is defined as a BMI at or above the 95th percentile for children of the same age
and sex. Severe childhood obesity is defined as a BMI greater than that of 120 percent of 95th
percentile for children of the same age and sex. After calculating this figure, you can find the
weight status category for the calculated BMI-for-age percentile in a gender specific BMI chart.
These charts are easily available online or at health centers. Alternatively, parents can use BMI
calculators on the web.
Organic Food Production: Organic agriculture is an ecological production management system
that promotes and enhances biodiversity, biological cycles and soil biological activity. It is based
on minimal use of off-farm inputs and on management practices that restore, maintain and
enhance ecological harmony (Ebeling, Ludwig, & Pawlak, 2002).

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System Boundaries and Structures


The main focus of this project is the levels of childhood obesity in the United States, which
operates under the macro environment of United States obesity in general. Within the
microenvironment is the operating boundary, obese children in the U.S. There are many
different aspects that affect childhood obesity, and in this project, the drivers or constraints from
which our main trends come from will be demographical, economical, governmental, social and
technological. Although many of the trends in regards to childhood obesity will coincide with
those of obesity in the United States in general, several will mainly focus on the adolescent
population, such as implementation of healthier eating in school systems.
The system of childhood obesity is driven by a magnitude of different constituents. Three of the
main elements of the system are the restaurant industry, food production and manufacturing,
and the U.S. government. Each of these different categories has played a major role in the
history of childhood obesity as well as its current state. They also affect the forces of change
that will influence the future.
System Factors and Forces of Change
Because there are so many different factors that affect childhood obesity in the U.S, research will
be focused on how healthier lifestyles will affect obesity in the adolescent population, with focus
on the fast food industry, food production tactics, and the implementation of governmental
policies.
Factor 1: Restaurant Industry and Obesity
The restaurant industry is an important driver of change for the future of childhood obesity.
Restaurants, especially fast food places, have made a conscious effort to modify their menus
towards healthier options in recent years due to the popularity of having healthier lifestyles and
the increase in awareness of the obesity problem in the U.S. In todays society, grabbing a meal
from a fast food chain is a common occurrence for many Americans. One of the most popular
fast food companies, McDonalds, went public in 1965 and has steadily gained popularity since

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then. Customers who tend to go to fast food restaurants have started to pay more attention to
what kinds of foods are being offered and consider choosing the healthier meal because of a
trend towards the importance of healthy lifestyles. The restaurant industry plays an important
role in childhood obesity because food that is offered at certain restaurants will affect whether
or not a child is being given a healthy meal. Recently, restaurants have started to regulate their
menus more closely and offer more healthy options, especially fast food places. One prominent
reason for childhood obesity is parents feeding their children meals from fast food places
because of the lack of nutrition in them and ingredients that create a higher risk of becoming
overweight or obese (Cutler, Glaeser, and Shapiro, 2003).
Fast food restaurants are a popular choice for meals because of convenience and proximity
(Dunn, 2008). There are fast food restaurants on almost any corner of a main road, making it
very easy for children to choose to eat at one. From a study done by the National Bureau of
Economic Research, the presence of a fast food restaurant within .1 mile of a school is
associated with at least a 5.2 percent increase in the obesity rate in that school relative to the
presence of a restaurant at .25 miles (Dunn, 2008). With fast food restaurants having such high
influence on levels of childhood obesity, the issue of promoting healthier meals at fast food
restaurants leads to implications for families who often eat at fast food places. To achieve having
healthier fast food restaurants, government could create more regulations and owners of
different fast food chains could make the conscious effort to change their menus to be healthier
overall. Many restaurants have already started to do this. For example, McDonalds made
apple slices an option for the side for a childs Happy Meal. To measure how this force of change
affects childhood obesity in the U.S, indicators would focus on the popularity of fast food
restaurants and what changes have been made to the menus.
Factor 2: Food Manufacturing and Obesity
Food manufacturing arose during the industrialization era back in the 19th century. New
processes were developed using the machines that were created during this time (Hackett
1992). Fast-forward to the late 20th century, processed foods were very popular and prevalent
in society. Various different kinds of processed foods were staple items in consumers diets. At
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the same time, awareness to the unhealthy side effects of many foods caused changes to be
made in order to attract consumers. In the 1970s, slimming foods were created and in the
1980s, low calorie ingredients as well as nutritional labeling were introduced (Welch & Mitchell
2000). All of these changes in food production resulted from increasing technology. They
required less natural ingredients to be put into food, which has contributed to the increasing
obesity levels. Today, many new advancements in food processing are being made and a
plethora of technology exists. Food manufacturing has caused the industry to stray from natural,
healthy and nutritional foods being available to everyone.
Companies in the food manufacturing and production industries create all of the processed and
packaged foods available to American consumers. These kinds of food are often full of
unhealthy ingredients such as saturated fats and high sugar content. Experts agree that junk
food largely contributes to obesity and results in high rates of diabetes, high blood pressure, and
strokes (Prevention Institute 2013). Children who consume these products, especially in high
quantities, are much more likely to have problems with obesity as well and a higher change of
developing these other health problems later in life.
Processed foods do not hold much nutritional value, but they are attractive to consumers for
their taste and price. Compared to natural and organic foods, producers are able to greatly
reduce the prices of their products in order to increase sales. Childhood obesity is especially
prevalent in low-income communities, which is due to parents in these communities being
unable to afford healthy items for their children. Companies that produce processed foods can
do so at low costs and as a result, can purposely lower their prices so that healthier alternatives
that cost more cannot compete with their products.
Not only do food manufacturers contribute to childhood obesity because of the unhealthy food
they provide, but also in ways that they influence these young consumers. Their influence on
children can start as early as when a child is still an infant. Baby food products that are offered
are about 65% sweet foods. According to researchers at the University of Glasgows Institute of
Health and Wellbeing, babies have a preference for sweet foods. They noted that Repeated
exposure to foods during infancy promotes acceptance and preferences, (Wright 2013 ). With
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about two-thirds of available baby food being sweet foods, this is exposing children to sugar at
infancy and heightening their likelihood of choosing sugary foods in later years as well.
Advertising is another way that companies in the food industry encourage children to make
unhealthy food choices. On average, the food and beverage industry expends $2 billion per year
on marketing to children (Kovacic 2008). This money contributes to the 4,000 advertisements
children watch per year on food-related ads (Powell 2011). Of these advertisements, 98%
display products that are high in fat, sugar, or sodium (Story 2008). Children are considered a
vulnerable audience because their cognitive abilities are still being developed. They have a more
positive attitude towards advertising than adults and are influenced by the advertisements they
are viewing (Moore 2012). The majority of the marketing exposed to children is food
advertisements, which is introducing them to unhealthy foods and contributing to children
developing unhealthy eating habits.
Experts recommend that more regulation be applied to food advertising and marketing to
children. Different organizations, such as the World Health Organization, demand more
government regulation of unhealthy food marketing. The Childrens Food Campaign argues that
brand characters, animation and other marketing tools make junk food more appealing to
children. A lot of campaigns are trying to eliminate unhealthy food marketing to children
altogether.
Another proposal on the current state of food manufacturers is to place a 10-30% tax on all
packaged foods as well as all food from chain restaurants. Expert researchers from Tufts
University, Harvard University and Boston Childrens Hospital came up with a plan in order to
create opposition towards food and restaurant industries and help children to change their diets.
Healthy foods have a higher cost than the unhealthy foods provided by food manufacturers.
These experts believe that by placing a tax on these products, the price gap between healthy and
unhealthy foods will decline. Dr. Dariush Mozaffarin, dean of the Friedman School of Nutrition
Science and Policy at Tufts, stated that This would dramatically reshape the food supply, (and)
help to reduce nutritional and health disparities amongst the poor and other disadvantaged
Americans, (Wanjek 2014). If the tax was implemented, even parents in the low-income
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leveled areas of the economy would no longer have the cost benefit of buying cheap, processed,
and unhealthy food for their children. Further, the profits from the taxes could be used for food
stamp programs for the low-income people.
In recent years, there have been increases in the healthy lifestyle trends. Consumers are
demanding better, more nutritional alternatives to the junk food they once consumed. Organic
food purchases are on the rise, and there is a new focus on purchasing all natural, no artificial
ingredient food items. As the demand for healthier foods continues to increase, there is
uncertainty as to how the food manufacturers will respond. Manufacturers debate between
trying to better their products to benefit consumers or to keep them deliciously unhealthy in
order to increase revenue. Government regulation for food manufacturers is increasing, and
there are a lot of possibilities on how the food industry will respond to the heightened rules.
Factor 3: Government and Obesity
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, prominent changes in childhood
obesity began in the 1980s. Through the 1980s and 1990s, childhood obesity prevalence tripled
from 5% to approximately 15% (Bell 2011). These increases caught the attention of the former
Surgeon General David Satcher. In 2001, he took action and released his Call to Action to
Prevent and Decrease Overweight and Obesity. In this call to action, Satcher warned society
about the negative effects that weight gain and unhealthy lifestyles were having on Americans
health and well-being. One of the main focuses from this document was the problem of obesity
among children. This was the catalyst for the government, and the beginning of millions of
governmental dollars being spent on obesity prevention, mainly for children (Downey 2012).
Over the next decade, numerous governmental policies, regulations and campaigns were
created in attempts to make a change. The Campaign to End Obesity is an action fund that was
created in 2010 to help aid governmental actions. This campaign is still present today and works
in partnership with leaders from Administration, Congress and federal agencies on legislation
and policies to decrease the level of childhood obesity. The current generation of children is
predicted to live shorter lives than their parents because of obesity and this group is working

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hard to help government officials to change this. The main routes that government is taking to
impact obesity rates in children are through public school district food plans, regulations for fastfood restaurants and food manufacturers, efforts to encourage child activity, and prices on both
healthy and unhealthy foods.
Within schools, government is enforcing changes to improve the environment for students. The
National School Lunch Program is a current meal program that provides a nutritionally balanced,
low-cost or free lunch to children every day at school. It is funded by the United States
Department of Agriculture and is reaching an increasing number of students every year. From
1980 to 2012, the number of students benefitting from this program has increased from 27
million to 31.6 million and 224 billion lunches have been served (USDA 2013). One noteworthy
aspect of the program is that it specifically targets children in low-income households.
Depending on the income level, children can receive these meals for free or at a reduced-price.
This is very beneficial as children in low income level families are much more likely to be obese.
Another implementation they have been enforcing in schools is removing vending machines
from the buildings or replacing items with healthier alternatives.
Outside of school lunches, government has also been trying to limit unhealthy food access to
children through regulation of food manufacturers and fast food restaurants. A requirement by
the U.S. Patent Protection and Affordable Care Act that was created in 2014 called for fast-food
eateries to add calorie values on their menus. Many of these restaurants, such as McDonalds,
Burger King and Taco Bell, have been making changes to their menus by improving the
nutritional value of some items and also adding healthier options (Sifferlin 2013). In September
of 2014, Michelle Obama also brought members of the food industry and media together for a
fast food marketing summit, encouraging them to advertise healthier foods to children.
The First Lady has had much more influence in the matter beyond holding a summit on healthy
advertising. She created the Lets Move! campaign in 2010, which engages every sector
affecting childrens health. Her focus is to provide schools, families and communities simple
tools to help kids be more active, eat better, and get healthy (OFL 2010). Mrs. Obama made
childhood obesity her primary project in 2010 and is still making efforts to combat its growth
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today. This campaign has had eminent success compared to other government attempts in
terms of popularity and gaining the publics attention.
Although Lets Move has had a lot of success in being in the public eye, there is speculation in
regards to how much this campaign, and governmental efforts overall, have accomplished in
correcting the childhood obesity epidemic. While experts do believe that Michelle Obama
helped the issue to have the kind of highly visible national leadership that it previously lacked,
(Graham 2012), they dont think enough has been done. Many health experts believe that
obesity should not be approached as a personal issue, but rather as a collective challenge to be
tackled by communities. Food manufacturers and fast food restaurants should be held
accountable or even punished by the government for the harmful products theyre offering
rather than focusing on the individual behaviors of each child to be more active (Graham 2012).
Jeffrey Koplan, former head of the CDC and vice president for global health at Emory University,
has another opinion on the matter. He believes that a shift in view is necessary; the social norms
for children have to change. Koplan stated that Our (eating and physical activity) tastes, our
preferences and our behaviors are learned and can be changed. Were dealing with a population
that would like to be thinner and that works in our favor, (Graham 2012). Koplan agrees with
governments attempts to make childrens environments healthier and encourages that there
are more transformations to be done. This will help to change the social norms children are
surrounded by and personally acquire.
From a different point of view, House Republicans have voiced proposals to cut school lunch
funding and regulation for more nutritionally balanced meals for the low-income families. They
believe that too much governmental money is being spent on these children and not enough
benefit is coming from the legislative implements that have been placed on schools (Land 2014).
The bill proposing these cuts called for a $33 billion funding cut to the Supplemental Nutrition
Assistance Program (SNAP) which would eliminate 280,000 children from the Free School Lunch
and Breakfast Program (ECM 2014).

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Based on the current situation of childhood obesity and the actions government is taking,
progression in the matter can go in various ways. There is uncertainty as to whether or not the
legislation being implemented will have success. Will children adhere to the lifestyles being
encouraged? How much time will pass before significant effects from legislation are noticeable?
What will happen if no change occurs within the next 10 years? There are not unlimited funds to
be used in fighting childhood obesity, and there is already debate that they should be decreased
and allocated to other national issues. Also, food manufacturers, fast food restaurants, and even
citizens may oppose regulation by government if it becomes too excessive. All of these
circumstances need to be considered when projecting the future of childhood obesity levels.
Stakeholders
Because childhood obesity is such a prevalent issue in the United States, there are many
stakeholders that are impacted by changes regarding childhood obesity. These stakeholders
include food manufacturers, fast food companies, the U.S. government, public schools,
technology companies, parents, and clothing companies.
Food Manufacturers
One of the most important stakeholders for childhood obesity is the food manufacturing
businesses. They have the highest influence but seemingly low interest in solving the issue of
child obesity. As stated earlier, the food and beverage industry spends nearly $2 billion annually
to market foods and beverages to children and adolescents in the U.S., reaching young people in
the places where they live, learn and play. A report from the Institute of Medicine concluded
that food advertising affects childrens food choices, food purchase requests, diets and health.
Although there has been some progress in reducing the amount of food marketing directed at
children, the majority of foods marketed to children remain unhealthy. The slow rise of the
healthy food micro-market may seem like a possible driver of change, but the big challenge to
this is that the price of healthy foods remains higher than unhealthy ones.

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Fast Food Companies


Fast food companies are important stakeholders in regards to childhood obesity because as
mentioned earlier, the restaurant industry, with special focus on fast food chains, plays an
important role on changes made in levels of adolescent obesity. Fast food companies have high
interest and high influence on childhood obesity because as parents become more aware of the
importance of healthier eating, they will pay closer attention to what restaurants are serving and
offering. This is of interest to fast food companies because to maintain the same level of profit,
they will have to cater to the interests of their customers. Fast food companies are highly
influential because the food that they sell affects the health of the public. Due to the popularity
and demand for fast food, whatever is on the menu will affect how their customers eat if they
decide to continue going to fast food chains.
Government
The government is a stakeholder that has high interest in the issue of child obesity, but its
influence on the issue remains moderate. From our earlier findings, it is apparent that the
governments influence on the issue is limited. The governments effort face backlash from
businesses, the public, and government officials as well. Nonetheless, government policies can
be a great force of change in childhood obesity. Perhaps, the government can consider more
initiatives or regulations such as food portion control, food serving size regulations (the size of
small/medium/large drinks/fast food meals), and so on.
Public Schools
Schools are another big stakeholder in this issue. They are stakeholders with high interest as
obesity directly affects their students. Nutrition affects the health, energy levels and attention
span of children. While this is something that impacts schools, their influence is somewhat
limited. Schools have high influence in educating students and parents about healthy life choices.
Through classes and partnerships with after-school programs, schools can raise awareness about
ways to prevent or combat obesity. Unfortunately, schools cannot directly influence what
parents and children ultimately do. The influence of schools is limited to the amount of funding
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they have, as it is costly to provide healthier food options. Recess and P.E classes are another
way for schools to encourage fitness in children. Unfortunately, schools in low-income areas are
less likely to have recess time or enough funding for P.E equipment.
Technology Companies
Due to the common popularity of TVs, computers, and video games, in addition to parents who
are too busy with work to spend enough quality time with their children, kids today spend hours
sitting in front of a screen instead of engaging in outdoor activities. This is why technology
companies that focus mainly on selling portable mobile devices such as smartphones, tablets,
and laptops are a highly influential stakeholder in regards to childhood obesity. The American
Academy of Pediatrics estimated that the average time per day that a child spends in front of a
screen can be up to 7 hours (Biro and Wien, 2010) The screen technology not only reduces
childrens exercise level, the fast food advertising in media and unconscious snacking associated
with it are also contributing factors to the obesity increase. Moreover, technologies such as
remote products and even modern transportation can also be considered ways that have
decreased human physical participation. Technology companies are at a slight level of interest,
however, because their main goals are not to cater to the obesity levels of the U.S population
but to sell as much as possible. However, as technology changes, their interest will change as
well.
Parents
Parents are high influence stakeholders for childhood obesity because generally, the parents
dietary lifestyle will dictate how the child eats as well. Parents are also highly interested because
childhood obesity is in regards to their childrens health. The involvement that parents have in
how their children live their lives is an important force of change. Parents are the ones who will
generally make the decision of whether or not to let technology be a prominent part of a childs
life, which will influence how much exercise a child gets. What a child eats will also normally be
decided by the parents, which is important because of how a childs diet is a key factor in his or
her susceptibility to obesity.

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Trend Analysis and Evidence-based Baseline Forecast


What is the future of childhood obesity in the U.S. as it relates to changes towards healthier
lifestyles specifically in the restaurant industry, food manufacturing, and the implementation of
governmental policies? This systematic trend analysis shows how changes in certain variables
and forces will affect childhood obesity regarding the different boundaries that have been
selected. The indicator that will be used to answer the central question is the percentage of
obese children in the U.S. The numbers that are found will help to give a factual answer
regarding how pertinent obesity is in children in the U.S. Observations will be made about the
previous numbers and how they have changed over the years. For the baseline forecast, the
scope of the next ten years is efficient in observing effects on our potential variables.
The percentage of obese children in the United States has increased significantly from 1988 to
2004. (See graph below) Over the past three decades, childhood obesity rates in America have
tripled, and today, nearly one in three children are overweight or obese (The White House
2010). These increases in the percentages of childhood obesity can be linked to the increasing
rich-poor gap, the increased use of technologies by children coupled with less physical activities,
increased production and manufacturing of processed food and increased consumption of fast
foods. On a positive note, for the past 10 years, these percentages have been fairly stable.

Source: CDC

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In the graph above, the age groups 6-11 years and 12-19 years roughly represent children in
elementary schools and secondary schools respectively. It is important to make this distinction
because efforts towards improving the state of childhood obesity such as governmental policies
differ by age group.
The future of childhood obesity in the United States will be determined by certain stakeholders
and key forces of change. With the influence of these elements, childhood obesity percentages
could decrease. The three primary categories that can project the future of childhood obesity in
the United States are the factors mentioned in our central question: changes in fast food
production and consumption, changes in processed food production and manufacturing, and the
changes in the implementation of governmental policies. These different groups are further
influenced by independent variables which are the forces of change. These forces of change will
drive the trajectory of childhood obesity in the US. For example, as discussed in one of our
alternative scenarios, technology has the potential to help reverse the state of childhood obesity
in the US. With the companies like Leapfrog introducing wearable fitness devices for children,
technology could be used to increase physical activity and health awareness in children, and
subsequently reduce childhood obesity (WSJ). The main sources used to support the analysis of
the independent variables include: The US Center for Disease Control, United States Department
of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, the State of Obesity Report Better Policies for a
Healthier America, and the National School Lunch Program
With the future, there are always uncertainties. Some relevant uncertainties that affect the topic
in context include: the effect of the increasing rich-poor gap on efforts towards combating
childhood obesity in the US, the willingness of the public to accept government involvement in
trying to improve the problem of childhood obesity, the amount of governmental funding used
to improve the quality of accessible foods to children, and the effect of technology on physical
activity in children.

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Fast Food Restaurant Industry


The independent variables that help to measure movements towards a healthier lifestyle include
the consumers desire for healthier food options and the availability of healthier food options.
Awareness of the need for the movement towards a healthier lifestyle is demonstrated in a
survey that was conducted by AYTM in 2014 (see graph). This study shows that most U.S.
consumers are somewhat satisfied or somewhat unsatisfied with the amount of healthy options
available at fast food restaurants.

Source: AYTM 2014


A desire for healthier food options has pushed big companies like McDonalds and Subway to
provide healthier options like salads and apple slices for both children and adults on their menu
(Businessweek 2013).

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Food Manufacturing Tactics


As mentioned above, consumer desire for healthier food options is driving companies to change
their food production tactics. The changes in the sale/consumption of organic food serves as an
independent variable that helps to measure changes in food manufacturing tactics. But with the
widening rich-poor gap, these healthier foods might not be available to the demographic that is
most affected by childhood obesity - children from low income families. This is an uncertainty
that affects the efforts towards combating childhood obesity.
A forecast by Western Washington University Center for Economic Vitality (see following graph)
further indicates a growth in organic food sales from 2010 to 2014. The rise in the sales of
organic food could be an indication of the increase in the production and consumption of
healthier food options.

Source: Western Washington University


However, the impact of this movement towards a healthy lifestyle might be limited by the richpoor gap. This uncertainty could lead to an alternative scenario. Since 1947, the shares of
corporate profits of GDP are now at their highest level, while the shares of wages are at their
lowest level. While the investors and highest paid corporate employees continued to make more
money, a significant part of the middle class is increasingly moving into lower-middle class
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The Future of Childhood Obesity in America

category. The recession further deepened the income gap as profits and dividends have been
rising since 2008, while real wages have fallen, with the ratio of labor compensation relative to
business and national income reaching its 50-year low. A CBO analysis found that between 1979
and 2007, income grew by: 275% for the top 1% of households; 65% for the next 19%, just below
40% for the next 60%, and 18% for the bottom 20% of households (Millennium Project 2014).
Studies show that childhood obesity rates are higher for low income families. The Pediatric
Nutrition Surveillance Survey (PedNSS), which examines children between the ages of 2 and 5
from lower income families, found that 14.4 percent of this group was obese in 2011, compared
with 12.1 percent of all U.S. children of a similar age (Levi 2014).

Source: CBO
This means that efforts towards combating childhood obesity are affected by trends in the richpoor gap in the US. As healthier options and organic foods are statistically and relatively more
expensive than fast food or processed foods, with the increasing gap between the rich and the
poor in the US, these foods might still not be accessible to low income families. This is where
governmental programs come into the picture.

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Governmental Policies and Program


Some of the governmental forces of changes that influence the percentage of childhood obesity
in the U.S. include: the increase in the number of governmental school programs that target
childhood obesity and the increase in government funding towards combatting childhood
obesity through programs, regulations, etc. Being a stakeholder with moderate influence and
high interest, the governments actions can have a huge impact on the future of childhood
obesity in the US. Since the US Surgeon Generals Call to Action in 2011, government efforts
towards reducing childhood obesity have increased. Programs such as the National School Lunch
Program and the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act (championed by the First Lady and signed by
President Obama) USDA made the first major changes in school meals in 15 years. The new
standards align school meals with the latest nutrition science and the real world circumstances
of Americas schools, and will help childrens health in a way thats achievable in schools across
the nation (USDA 2013). These programs are geared towards providing food to children from lowincome families. This helps to tackle the challenge of the increasing rich-poor gap. According to
Pew Researchs article, Public Agrees on Obesitys Impact, Not Governments Role the general
public is reluctant to let the government step in on matters of obesity (Pew Research 2013).
Despite this reluctance, schools seem to be cooperative, with participation in the meal programs
increased by just over 5 million from 26.2 million to 30.7 million students between 1970 and
2012 (FEBP 2014).
Government funding focused on such programs and other initiatives that address obesity has
increased over the years. According to a report on NCES by Snyder and Dillowon, the total
funding from Department of Agriculture for child nutrition programs has increased from
$299,131,000 in 1970 to $19,504,343,000 in 2012. Programs like the National School Lunch
Program help to provide healthy food options to kids at low costs or for free. According to the
USDA Food and Nutrition Service, total federal expenditures on the National School Lunch
Program increased from $6 billion to more than $11 billion annually (See graph below).
Governmental support towards fighting childhood obesity has increased in terms of funding and

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programs over the years. If these trends continue, it is reasonable to assume that this will lead to
a decrease or stabilization of the percentages of childhood obesity (source: FEBP).

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture


The compounded effect of the forces of change discussed above will drive the future of
childhood obesity. As the government has high interest and increasing influence on the direction
of the issue, increased funding towards improving the state of childhood obesity can have a huge
impact. Programs initiated by governments through schools and afterschool programs help to
increase awareness in parents and children and also make healthy food options available to
children from low income families. In addition, the availability of healthier food options in fast
food restaurants and the increased sale of organic foods suggest future improvement in eating
habits of families and subsequently the percentage of child obesity in the US. Ultimately, over
the next 10 years, our report forecasts a steady decrease in the percentage of childhood obesity.

Data Source: CDC


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Narrative of Future Scenarios


Based on the research conducted and the central question, the inductive method is most
beneficial to use for this project due to many different uncertainties that are impacting the
percentage of obese children in the United States. The Aspirational Futures Method was the
chosen inductive method due to the fact that there are preferred directions that the future of
childhood obesity will go in. Ideally, Americans will see a decline in the amount of obese children
in the country with technology working to benefit and make activities easier and more fun for
children, government involvement through funding and regulations will further push a healthier
regime and families in general would strive towards living a healthier lifestyle. This would most
closely relate to the Mr. Goodbar scenario which will be mentioned later. Even though we have
a preferred scenario in place, the possibility of the percentage of obese children increasing
cannot be ignored. The Aspirational Futures Method is useful for projecting the obesity trend
because the format coincides well with the rate at which the trend is changing and allows the
influence of multiple uncertainties interaction to be observed.
Obesity problems result from an intake of more energy than is expended. A numerous amount
of factors go into this issue, but one of the greatest is the quality of food being consumed.
Highly caloric foods with low nutritional value are generally less expensive than foods that are
lower in calories with more sustenance. As a result of this, children in poverty and low-income
families have a greater difficulty acquiring healthy, beneficial food. Due to this, they eat foods
that are not fulfilling them, and at the same time are supplying them with too high of daily
caloric intake. The government has spent $100 billion on food-assistance programs for these
children and their families (Gundersen 2014). There has been positive effects from the
programs, however, many people oppose the amount of money government is expending on
this issue. One uncertainty that exists is the amount of resources the government will invest
toward combating obesity and health problems in the future. Along with this, the kind of reform
the government will implement is another issue.
Another uncertainty is the kind of households that will be present. Studies have shown that dualcareer parents and single parents can be influencing the obesity rates in children as well.
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Parents arent spending enough time with their children in order to bring money into the family,
resulting in children having a lot more time alone. Children with more free time tend to spend
larger amounts in front of the television, computer, etc. rather than being active. Also, working
parents have less time to provide their children with home cooked meals, which leads to
consumption of less healthy foods such as pre-prepared dishes, fast food, and take out. The shift
in popularity from the typical American family with a mother, father, and the children to the
family styles seen today was not foreseen, and there is the potential of other, differently styled
family formats to arise.
Not only do the parents/caregivers jobs factor into childhood obesity, but their mental and
physical health do as well. Parents who are obese and overweight themselves are more likely to
pass down their poor habits to their children. If there is a change in the obesity levels and
lifestyles of adults, this could directly affect their children. One way this could occur is with the
creation of a medically safe, doctor supported way to lose weight. Plenty of diet pills have been
invented over the years that claim to aid in weight loss, however none have really caught on and
been prescribed by doctors. The fact that there is technology and research going into creating a
weight loss drug supports the possibility of one being created. The creation of one is a potential
disruption that could halt the increasing rates of obesity, which would indirectly affect the
percentage of obese children as well. This would be due to less obese parents being models for
their children.
Decreasing the obesity percentage can also be achieved through the rise of organic and healthier
foods being produced. The organic food sector only made up 4% of the market in 2010;
however, the natural/organic food demand has been growing with $81.3 billion in sales (a 13.5%
increase from the previous year) occurring in 2012 (Daniells 2014). Natural/organic foods clearly
are increasing in popularity, which definitely improves the food intake of children. As more
organic food is produced and purchased by consumers (parents), the children will be getting
access to healthier foods that can decrease obesity levels. With the increase in technology,
there are also other forms of foods being tested currently that professionals are hoping to

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enhance Americans health as well. New kinds of food that are developed could be potential
disruptions in the way obesity headed.
The four scenarios that have been created involve a combination of the uncertainties and
disruptions discussed above and ways that they have affected childhood obesity. Each scenario
takes a different outlook on the direction taken as a result of the interaction between these
uncertainties, creating positive and negative outcomes. Due to childhood obesity being a large
problem for the United States, there is a definite negative view of the trend which is
demonstrated in the Milk Duds scenario. Having an overall, distinct opinion on this trend
creates an easy separation between ideal vs. avoidable futures. The following futures also
encompass one scenario that is expected if a low amount of change occurs in regard to
childhood obesity rates. This example is shown in the Now and Later scenario. Along with
these projections, there are also two scenarios that would be positive and preferred outcomes
for the changing childhood obesity percentage in America in the next ten years. The positive and
more advanced scenario is demonstrated in the Milky Way scenario and the preferred, as
mentioned earlier, is shown in the Mr. Goodbar scenario.

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Now and
Later: Business
as Usual
This scenario
will likely
happen if
current trends do
not change
What is
happening now
is a good
implication of
what will be
happening later.

Fall 2014

(Milk) Duds:
Challenges/
Hard Times
This scenario
implies that all
the current
negative trends
take over and
obesity becomes
a serious issue.
All efforts to
help the issue
have turned to
"duds".

Mr. Goodbar
Visionary #1
The positive
trends really take
over in this
scenario.
Obesity declines
and children
become more
active.
All is good.

Milky Way:
Visionary #2
New technologies
and innovations
have really
helped eradicate
childhood
obesity.
This scenario
goes above and
beyond necessary
implications to
help aid the issue.
The Milky Way
is the limit.

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The Future of Childhood Obesity in America

Now and Later: Business as Usual


Thankfully, due to governmental policies and regulation increases
within the past ten years, the percentage of obese children in the
United States has stabilized and is slightly decreasing. Many of the
school program initiatives that were implemented took off and have
changed the environments for children, especially in regard to their
health.
A balance between technological developments and increased
government participation coupled with the similar kinds of food
production has only allowed a slight downfall in childhood obesity
levels. Government has forced restaurants and food companies to
decrease the amount of advertising of unhealthy foods towards

Signposts
Increasing government
regulations implemented
Success of governmental
programs combating
obesity
Increased use of wearable
technologies
Minimal changes in food
production
Less advertising of
unhealthy products

children. Regardless, restaurants and food producers are still offering a


plethora of products lacking in nutritional value.
Parents are still occupied with work and are unable to spend as much time with their children as
would be ideal. Children are left alone and attend daycares while their parents are busy
supporting the family. The lack of time often results in parents giving their children fast food
because of the inability to make home cooked meals. All of the alone time allows kids to also
spend a lot of time watching television and playing on their iPhone 16S.
At the same time, for the children from higher-income families, improved wearable technology
that tracks energy expenditure, such as the Nike fuel band, has been linked with social media
outlets so that kids can track their activity levels and compare/compete with their friends. Being
active has become a way to engage in social interaction.
For the low-income children government initiatives such as SNAP have thoroughly developed in
the last ten years and there are now many more nutritional foods available for families relying on
food stamps to survive. Children coming from families living in poverty now have access to a lot
more healthy food options thanks to SNAP and to the provided meals from the schools.
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Business Implications and strategies for Now and Later


Consumers in this scenario will continue to buy fast food products, yet they will be more aware
and cautious of the consequences this would bring, especially or their children. Since advertising
for unhealthy foods has been cut down, restaurants geared towards healthier options could take
advantage of this and really target children when it comes to selling their more nutritional
products. Popularity of organic or healthy food restaurants could rise significantly if they take
advantage of this handicap that was given to fast foods.
Another opportunity that could be taken advantage of in the Now and Later scenario is the
fact that parents are spending increasingly less time with their children. Since a healthier
lifestyle is becoming more popular, daycares for children that specialize in engaging the children
in activities could become more popular. This could come in any form, such as academies for
specific sports to a community of counselors and kids that play different types of games that
allow the children to interact and be more active. Places like these may exist, but the demand
for them really does seem to grow in this scenario due to parents working more and being out of
the home.
Milk Duds: Challenge/Hard times
Everything started to really go south once the percentage of
overweight and obese people in the U.S. exceeded 70% of the
population in 2015. People felt as though government efforts
attempting to combat the rising percentage of the population that was
obese were a waste of time. Lacking evidence that the programs and
regulations were achieving anything caused many people to argue for
the budgeting from these areas of government to be allocated
elsewhere. After that, the entire structure started to fall apart.
One of the most unsettling parts was the drastic change that occurred

Signposts
Funding for government
programs combating obesity
were cut
School cafeterias offering
worse food than in the
previous 10 years
Rich and poor gap increased
Constant, nationwide Internet
access

which affected the children and led them to be 10% more obese than

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ten years ago. All the initiatives that had been made toward bettering the schools environment
for childrens health diminished quickly. Lunch programs in the schools have resorted back to
the old meals that were present pre-health reform, which are low in monetary and nutritional
value. Funding was hard to find to pay school officials to sponsor after school athletic groups. To
make things worse, fast food chains are taking advantage of the lack of awareness that is being
put towards healthy lifestyles, and thriving more than ever with products such as the quadruple
cheese double burger and bacon big mac and the gigantic whopper.
More than this, the rapid growth of technology landed the U.S. with the current gap between
rich and poor that is larger than ever. The poor are poorer and the rich are richer. Food stamp
programs like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) that aided low-income
families to have access to healthier food options are only a memory of the past. Families living in
poverty are forced to purchase the cheapest foods lacking in nutrition and high in caloric
number. Children in poor families dont have access to or the resources for healthy diets, which
has caused obesity levels in low-income children to increase more than any other group of
adolescents.
As for the children in higher-income families, nationwide Internet access has provided children
with an outlet to access the web easier than ever before. All television has been transferred to
Internet format and can be viewed at any time. Children with the means are constantly on their
Google glasses watching shows and interacting with friends in other places. Social media outlets
are so popular among these children that they dont find it necessary to interact face-to-face
outside of special occasions. Technology also assists people by allowing take-out food to be
delivered to homes at a push of a button. Children dont find as many needs to leave their
homes and have become much more inactive, resulting in weight gains.
Business Implications and strategies for Milk Duds
Even though this may be the scenario that our society should try and avoid the most, there are
still some opportunities that could be taken advantage of from these series of events. First,
people are clearly getting lazier and would prefer to take as little effort as possible for any

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activity. Walking substitutes such as motor chairs, moving walkways and even escalators may
become more common as long as they make day to day life more convenient. Technology in
these areas could really grow.
In a more positive light, the increase of unhealthy lifestyles still need to be called to attention,
especially as they lead to early morbidity. Institutions with health and weight loss programs
could gain popularity for those that want to make changes in their lives and also set a better
example for their children to lead a more productive and healthier lifestyle.
Again it would be best if this scenario did not occur, yet as a foresight forecast precaution, this
anticipation must be looked at. Some of these business implications may not be the most
ethical, which will be addressed later, but one must prepare for anything if a business is to thrive
in conditions that are as versatile as these.
Mr. Goodbar: Visionary 1
The first visionary scenario forecast is the outcome of what has

Signposts

occurred after the government increased the amount of regulations


that affects obesity in children and food production shifts to

Increased public
interest in healthy
trends

Disappearing of
vending machines in
schools

More children
involved in physical
activities

healthier, more beneficial nutrition. In this scenario, the increased


governmental regulation has been a driving factor ever since
childhood obesity reached an all-time high in 2014. It has forced the
food production industry to improve the nutrition value of the
products that they are outputting. The percentage of obese and
overweight children has begun to decrease as a result of these
efforts.

Families have become more active, and children are a lot more involved in after-school activities
as well. Programs like Lets Move! Active Schools and National Association for Sport and
Physical Health have flourished, having an all-time high participation rate. It is common to see
parks filled with children doing different activities with their school programs. Parents stopped
feeding their children as much fast food and processed foods as well. This was due to increased
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governmental health regulations, which restricted what the food industry and fast food
companies can advertise to children as well as sell so that children were not able to be exposed
to unhealthy foods.
Even a regular day at school has evolved in ways to be better accustomed to a healthier way of
living for children. Schools have long been rid of vending machines, which consisted of mostly
highly processed unhealthy junk food, and government funding towards public school lunches
have allowed the schools to provide a much healthier selection for students.
Business Implications and strategies for Mr. Goodbar
In the Mr. Goodbar scenario all the good trends that we have seen have progressed as expected.
Competition in the healthy restaurant arena will surely increase. Opportunities for that area will
grow. If food producers could gain a certain niche, for example with the schools and the
cafeteria food, they could have an advantage. An example of this would be developing a healthy
and economical lunch pack for schools to buy. Also, since schools have gotten rid of vending
machines containing junk food, a different form of vending machines that contains and sustains
healthier options like fruit for example could increase in popularity. Since the government is
now funding schools for healthier food, this would be a possibility in the Mr. Goodbar scenario.
Other implications in this scenario would pertain to the programs that the government will
implicate in order to get kids to be more active. Institutions could be formed that provide ideas
that will be most successful in getting kids more motivated to become active in their daily lives.
Programs diversify their activities from day-to-day in order to prevent kids from getting bored
and should associate all forms of activity with positive things so habits can be developed.

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Milky Way: Visionary 2

Signposts
The second visionary scenario forecast discusses how new lab grown
foods and wearable technologies have become successful. Ever since
labs figured out how to produce foods that taste good and are healthy,
lab grown foods have been the most popular source of food in the USA.
Not only are they a healthier alternative, but they have forced healthy
foods of the past to be priced at lower values. This means that lower
income families have access to these nutritional foods and their children
have access to more nutritious and delicious meals.

Lab grown foods hit


market
Price of healthy foods
declines
Increase in use of
wearable technologies
Development of social
network for wearables

Wearable technologies have also played a big role in the slim down of the
USA. Gadgets like the Nikes Fuel Band and Leap Frogs Leap Band have expanded and
transformed in ways so that children can not only keep track of how many calories they lose, but
they can also connect them to social media and compare it with friends. This new feature has
become popular and sophisticated enough that children that have these bands are now more
active and have fun while engaging in exercise and healthy activity.
Now that childrens diets are composed of higher quality nutrition and kids with access to these
new wearable technologies are more active, the lifestyle in the USA is trending to the more
healthy side of things and obesity rates are dropping exponentially. As new lab grown foods
become even more accepted and popular and these new technologies become more advanced
and accessible to the general population, obesity will soon cease to be a problem in the USA.
Business Implications and strategies for Milky Way
The Milky Way scenario lays out a future where advances in technology are clearly what drive
the changes in trends. From wearable technology to lab grown foods, this scenario would be
great for the health of children by making it a lot easier and accessible to live a healthier lifestyle.
Business implications for the technology stand out in this future. The first to develop a cheap yet
nutritious lab grown meal, or improve the technology with wearables would greatly benefit in
the Milky Way. Another way to take advantage of this outcome would be to focus on the less
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The Future of Childhood Obesity in America

privileged families who will not be able to afford the luxuries that become available through the
advances in technology. Ways to do this is by taking advantage of the decrease in prices of
organic, healthy foods and begin to advertise to and target the lower income families to get
them to buy these kinds of foods.
Back on the technology track, new apps and games related to the wearable technology could be
developed to maintain an interest with the children and keep them active through the new
found social network that the wearables have made available to them. Lastly, the lab grown
food market would be a completely new idea in society and people would be very skeptical at
first when deciding to eat something that was completely man made. There would need to be
groups that would advertise these products and make them appealing to the general public by
showing that these lab grown foods really are better for ones health. They would need to
compete with the already existing fast food chains, or maybe even partner up with them and
make them adopt this standard for nutritional content in food and force companies to
implement it in their own restaurants.
Ethical Conflicts
Overall, our data suggests that obesity growth rates are slowing down and moving towards a
slow decrease in obesity over the next ten years. Factors such as food production, government
programs, and technological advances seem to be the real driving forces for what the future of
obesity in the U.S. will look like. As our data demonstrates, government has already made
strides in creating programs that will make kids more active, fast food industries have come out
with products that lean towards healthier options, and organic food has become more popular
over the years. Even with all of this data, what history has taught us is that nothing is certain.
Maintaining a vigilant eye on all of the trends and being aware of how the population is reacting
to these changes is essential. Several business implications have been described for each of the
scenarios provided in order to be prepared to thrive no matter what the future brings. On top of
all of these preparations, there has to be an awareness of the ethical implications that the
actions taken to thrive imply. From taking advantage of an increasingly lazy population to

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introducing new technology into the world, there are many things that could go wrong or may
flat out not be right to do.
The first ethical implication is related to the Milk Duds scenario and the advertisement and
creation of all of the walking substitutes. Although companies like these may thrive in such a
future, they are not striving to actually benefit the common good for the society. Merely taking
advantage of a point of weakness in a population will only make things worse eventually. The
possibility of people realizing that these companies do not care for their well-being is also a
possibility, which would cause the businesses to collapse due to lack of trust.
Another ethical issue comes in the introduction of new technology. Anytime something new is
introduced to the general population, it must be tested and made sure to actually benefit and
not have negative side effects for any group. This more specifically applies to the Milky Way
scenario and the introduction of lab grown foods and wearable technology advancements. With
the lab grown foods, thorough testing must be done before releasing such a new product. If
companies are careless in this process and focus only on the profit instead of the health
implications that this sort of foods could create, then eventually consumers would stop buying
the products and a good idea could forever be ruined due to selfish endeavors. Worse than this,
it could also leave the population of the U.S. worse of physically.
The next issue comes with the wearable technology and the social network it would come with.
Introducing this to children could be detrimental to social interactions if the topic of weight
becomes too emphasized. Children who are not able to lose as much weight as others may get
hurt by this product and make the situation worse. When introducing such a product that is so
involved in social settings, the business must clearly state the goal and mission of the product as
a positive one, not a harmful one, if they want the product to succeed and limit the damage
caused to the mentality of the children.
Lastly, we mentioned earlier how people may not be happy with all the possible government
interventions and programs that they put in place in order to promote healthier lifestyles. There
is and always has been the question of how much government influence there should be in the

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regular day to day lives of its people. Implementing all of these programs would definitely
appear as though the government is trying to take control of the populations personal lives and
many would not agree with that. There would have to be a way to encourage people to support
all of these programs without making it seem like they are being forced upon society. This would
be a difficult task, yet a necessary one if it is to be successful for this matter.
In all of these scenarios, as long as businesses keep a pure aim and attempt to benefit the initial
goal of reducing childhood obesity, then the ethical issues should not be much of a detrimental
problem. Being aware of what their products are doing and setting a clear goal for their
products should help companies to avoid any issues regarding the well-being of the population.
Conclusion
Childhood obesity in the United States has become a more and more important concern of the
whole country. Where it is heading and how it could change is influenced by and can influence all
types of stakeholders such as parents, the government, the technology sector, and the food
manufacturing industry. If the current trends go on, U.S. childhood obesity will likely to go
through a slow decrease and then reach an eventual stagnation. However, there are many
uncertainties and disruptions that may cause changes to the trajectory and generate different
possible scenarios: the negative trends could take over causing childhood obesity to increase;
the positive trends may have a stronger impact, which will cause childhood obesity to decrease;
or the development in technology and other sectors might actually eradicate childhood obesity.
Businesses and stakeholders should pay close attention to the signposts of these possible
scenarios and make an effort to forecast the possible futures by first assessing the current
status. The insights gained from the forecasts enable businesses and stakeholders to have a
better understanding of the possible futures and recognize potential opportunities, threats and
even ethical concerns that may occur. By analyzing the potentials, businesses will then be able to
adjust their strategies accordingly and come up with new plans to thrive in a future that they
have foreseen.

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Works Cited
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restaurants?. In Statista - The Statistics Portal. Retrieved from
http://www.statista.com/statistics/319108/satisfaction-with-healthy-options-at-fast-food-restaurants-us/
Bell, J. (January 2011). CDC Grand Rounds: Childhood Obesity in the United States. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention. Retrieved from
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6002a2.htm#fig1
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Appendices

Appendix I: System Boundaries Map

Obesity in the U.S.

Food Production
Fast food Restaurants
Government
Economic Class

Childhood Obesity
in the U.S.

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Appendix II: Stakeholders

High Influence
Food Manufacturers
Fast Food Restaurants

Parents
Government
Technology
Companies
-TVs
-tablets
-computers

Public Schools

High Interest
Low Interest

Clothing Companies

Low Influence

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Appendix III: Forces of Change

Force of Change

Trajectory

Impact on Status Quo

Increasing

More difficult for low-income families to consume healthy foods

Increasing

Government can implement more policy programs to help children at school &
in low-income families have healthier foods choices

Increasing

More restrictions on what food manufacturers can produce as well as limit


marketing of unhealthy food to children

Healthier lifestyles & health conscious Increasing

More people start to be at healthy weight levels as being health-conscious


becomes the social norm

Economic
Rich poor gap

Governmental
Funding to schools & healthcare

Regulation

Societal

Technological
Technological advances

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Increasing

Some technology will make children more sedentary while some, such as
wearables and fitness apps, will help them to be more active

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Appendix IV: Timeline Mapping

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