TC Tracks 1970-2010
Problem Statement
Which factors or conditions affect tropical cyclone rainfall variability over
the island of Puerto Rico?
Intensity?
Horizontal Translation Speed?
Environmental Moisture?
Proximity to Storm Center?
Vertical Wind Shear?
Storm Center Location?
Storm Duration?
The frequency with which a tropical cyclone passes directly over Puerto Rico is
small
(Scatena and Larsen, 1991).
Some Caribbean storms have reportedly produced more than 2000 mm (Gupta, 1988).
Area of Study
Puerto Rico is located 18.5
N & 66.5 W.
The total population of the
island is approximately 3.7
million.
Data Sources
Daily Rainfall from 32 rain gauges in mm (NCDC)
Tropical Cyclone Tracks from 1970-2010 (IBTrACS)
Daily Environmental Variables (NCEP/NCAR)
Puerto Rico Digital Elevation Model (USGS)
Methods
Tracks within 500 km of PR were selected with a GIS.
Data for 12-24 hr. for one day, add up other days with 12 hr. >
Independent variables were measured using the same parameters used for rainfall,
Variables
Table 1. Storm specific characteristics and environmental factor variables used in this study.
Storm Specific Factors
Abbreviation
Units
LAT
LON
PRX
km
Storm Duration
DUR
hrs.
VMX
ms-1
HTS
ms-1
Environmental Factors
Abbreviation
Units
TPW
mm
MRH
WSU
%
ms-1
WSV
ms-1
LAT
LON
PRX*
DUR
HTS
VMX
TPW
MRH
WSU
WSV
Minimum
13.5
-70.6
1
12
3.15
11.11
30.31
23.45
-10.79
-16.30
*1 means landfall
Maximum
22.8
-61
499.9
102
13.17
72.28
53.74
74.32
32.08
12.46
Mean
17.9
-65.5
239.7
41.5
6.3
28.3
44.7
49.8
9.9
.22
Table 3. Tropical cyclones that produced more than 50 mm rainfall over the
island of Puerto Rico.
TC
Max Intensity
Year
TCR (mm)
Rank
Eloise
TD
1975
279.15
1
Georges*
H3
1998
271.43
2
David
H5
1979
237.56
3
Hortense*
H1
1996
209.74
4
Jeanne*
TS
2004
190.35
5
Isabel
TS
1985
186.72
6
Chris
TD
1988
158.91
7
Grace
TS
1997
122.35
8
Frederic*
TS
1979
106.28
9
Olga*
TS
2007
99.89
10
Lenny
H3
1999
99.37
11
Claudette*
TD
1979
98.93
12
Debby
H1
2000
94.86
13
Debby
TD
1982
85.96
14
Hugo*
H4
1989
84.14
15
Marilyn
H2
1995
76.35
16
Dean
TS
2001
73.21
17
Klaus
TS
1984
72.01
18
Mindy
TS
2003
66.92
19
Carmen
TD
1974
64.76
20
Odette
TS
2003
58.43
21
Earl
H3
2010
57.35
22
Luis
H4
1995
53.2
23
*Tropical cyclones that made landfall.
Factors
TPW
PRX
MRH
DUR
LON
HTS
VMX
WSV
LAT
WSU
Correlation Coefficients
0.716
-0.678
0.565
0.542
-0.357
-0.288
0.144
-0.106
0.073
0.011
Significance
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.007
0.184
0.333
0.503
0.923
PRX
MRH
DUR
TPW
1 -0.342** 0.593** 0.338**
PRX
-0.342**
1 -0.265** -0.591**
MRH
0.593** -0.265**
1 0.214**
DUR
0.338** -0.591** 0.214**
1
HTS
-0.319**
0.133
-0.184 -0.545**
LON
-0.373**
-0.001 -0.452**
0.130
**Correlation is significant at 0.01
HTS
LON
-0.319** -0.373**
0.133
-0.001
-0.183 -0.452**
-0.545**
0.130
1
-0.050
-0.050
1
% of Variance
Cumulative %
25.39
25.39
20.20
45.60
15.09
60.70
10.64
71.34
Variables Loadings
DUR
PRX
HTS
MRH
LON
TPW
LAT
WSU
VMX
WSV
0.89
-0.74
-0.66
0.79
-0.77
0.77
-0.88
0.87
0.85
0.69
Results: PCR
Table 7. Forward principal component regression model results.
Model
R2
Adjusted R2 Components
Factors
Coefficients Significance
MRH
2
LON
.605
0.000
.585
0.000
TPW
TCR
.842
.708
.701
DUR
1
PRX
HTS
TCR
TPW
PRX
MRH
DUR
LON
HTS
TCR
TPW
PRX
MRH
DUR
LON
HTS
Table 9. Mann-Whitney U test results for the TCs associated with the 23 highest and
lowest rainfall events for Puerto Rico.
Factors
Mann-Whitney U
Z-score
Significance P-value
TCR
TPW
PRX
MRH
DUR
0.00
24.00
29.00 42.500
80.00
-5.811 -5.284 -5.183 -4.877 -4.077
.000
.000
.000
.000
.000
LON
122.500
-3.122
.002
HTS
144.00
-2.647
.008
Conclusions
Heavy rainfall occurred across Puerto Rico when tropical
cyclones were within a distance of 233 km or less to the
island.
Also when moisture environments exceeded 44.5 mm of
precipitable water and 44.5% of mid-level relative humidity.
Future Research
Future work will examine the contribution of TCs to the rainfall
climatology of Puerto Rico.
The spatial distribution of TC rainfall over the island and its
relationship with topography.
Future research will also focus on understanding the relationship
between TC rainfall and extreme flooding events over the island.