1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Pendahuluan
Nave Models dan Moving Average Methods
Exponential Smoothing Methods
Regresi dan Trend Analysis
Regresi Berganda dan Time Series Regresi
Metode Dekomposisi
Model ARIMA Box-Jenkins
Studi Kasus : Model ARIMAX (Analisis Intervensi,
Fungsi Transfer dan Neural Networks)
Subjective (Judgmental)
Forecasting Methods
Causal
Methods
Analogies
Nave Methods
Simple Regression
Moving Averages
Multiple Regression
Exponential Smoothing
Neural Networks
Delphi
PERT
Simple Regression
Survey techniques
ARIMA
Neural Networks
References :
Intervention Model
Transfer Function (ARIMAX)
VARIMA (VARIMAX)
Neural Networks
Makridakis et al.
Hanke and Reitsch
Wei, W.W.S.
Box, Jenkins and Reinsel
Trend Effect
Regresi untuk
Trend Linear
Seasonal Effect
Regresi untuk
Seasonal Data
Cyclic Effect
Regresi untuk
Cyclic Effect
Input (X)
Harga Produk
Controllable Factors
F1, F2, , Fq
Process
Output (Y)
Z1, Z2, , Zq
Sales Produk
(Model Regresi)
Uncontrollable Factors
Harga Pesaing, Selera Konsumen, Kondisi
Ekonomi Nasional (inflasi dll) dan faktor lain
yang tidak dapat dikontrol dalam kondisi TETAP
rxy
( xi
i 1
n
( xi
i 1
x )( y i y )
x) 2
( yi
, -1 rxy 1
y) 2
i 1
Minggu
Sales
(ribu unit)
Harga
(ribu rupiah)
1.
10
1.3
2.
2.0
3.
1.7
4.
12
1.5
5.
10
1.6
6.
15
1.2
7.
1.6
8.
12
1.4
9.
17
1.0
10.
20
1.1
(continued)
(continued)
Coef
32.136
-14.539
S = 2.725
SE Coef
4.409
3.002
R-Sq = 74.6%
T
7.29
-4.84
P
0.000
0.001
R-Sq(adj) = 71.4%
Analysis of Variance
Source
Regression
Residual Error
Total
DF
1
8
9
SS
174.18
59.42
233.60
MS
174.18
7.43
F
23.45
P
0.001
(continued)
Input (X)
Harga
Produk
Biaya
Iklan
Controllable Factors
F1, F2, , Fq
Process
Output (Y)
Z1, Z2, , Zq
Sales Produk
(Model Regresi)
Uncontrollable Factors
Harga Pesaing, Selera Konsumen, Kondisi
Ekonomi Nasional (inflasi dll) dan faktor lain
yang tidak dapat dikontrol dalam kondisi TETAP
(ribu unit)
Harga
(ribu rupiah)
Biaya Iklan
1.
10
1.3
2.
2.0
3.
1.7
4.
12
1.5
14
5.
10
1.6
15
6.
15
1.2
12
7.
1.6
8.
12
1.4
10
9.
17
1.0
15
10.
20
1.1
21
Minggu
Sales
(continued)
(juta rupiah)
Iklan
Sales
-0.863
0.001
0.891
0.001
Harga
-0.654
0.040
Cell Contents:
Pearson correlation
P-Value
(continued)
Coef
16.406
-8.248
0.5851
SE Coef
4.343
2.196
0.1337
S = 1.507
R-Sq = 93.2%
T
3.78
-3.76
4.38
P
0.007
0.007
0.003
R-Sq(adj) = 91.2%
Analysis of Variance
Source
DF
Regression 2
Residual
7
Total
9
SS
217.70
15.90
233.60
MS
108.85
2.27
F
P
47.92 0.000
R2 = 74.6%
R2 = 79.5%
(continued)
R2 = 93.2%
Input (X)
Nilai
TES BAKAT
pekerja
Controllable Factors
F1, F2, , Fq
Process
Output (Y)
Z1, Z2, , Zq
Produktifitas
pekerja
(Model Regresi)
JENIS
KELAMIN
pekerja
Usia, Pendidikan,
Ruang kerja, Mesin
dan faktor faktor lain
yang dapat dikontrol
dalam kondisi TETAP
Uncontrollable Factors
(continued)
Plot antara Tes Bakat dan Produktifitas, antara pekerja PRIA dan
WANITA
(continued)
Produktifitas
Tes Bakat
0.876
0.000
Dummy
-0.021
0.940
Coef
-4.1372
0.12041
2.1807
SE Coef
0.8936
0.01015
0.4503
R-Sq = 92.1%
T
-4.63
11.86
4.84
P
0.001
0.000
0.000
R-Sq(adj) = 90.8%
(continued)
(continued)
WANITA
PRIA
t = 1, 2, (dummy waktu)
(continued)
(continued)
Coef
721.60
281.20
-97.40
-202.20
SE Coef
13.79
19.51
19.51
19.51
R-Sq = 97.7%
Analysis of Variance
Source
DF
Regression
3
Residual Error
16
Total
19
SS
646802
15220
662022
T
52.32
14.42
-4.99
-10.37
P
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
R-Sq(adj) = 97.3%
MS
215601
951
F
226.65
P
0.000
Dummy Variable
Dummy Variable
Coef
412.81
19.719
130.41
-108.06
-227.78
S = 35.98
SE Coef
26.99
2.012
26.15
25.76
25.52
R-Sq = 96.3%
T
15.30
9.80
4.99
-4.19
-8.92
P
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.000
R-Sq(adj) = 95.0%
Analysis of Variance
Source
Regression
Residual Error
Total
DF
4
11
15
SS
371967
14243
386211
MS
92992
1295
F
71.82
P
0.000
Forecast
Model
MAD
MAPE
Double
M.A.
66.6963
6.68889
0.9557
Holts
Method
28.7083
4.4236
0.6382
Regresi
Trend
21.6829
3.73048
0.5382
Holts Method :
Alpha (level): 0.202284
Gamma (trend): 0.234940
Model
MSE
MAD
MAPE
Winters
Method
4372.69
52.29
9.67
Regresi
Trend &
Seasonal
890.215
23.2969
4.3122
Winters Method :
Alpha (level): 0.4
Gamma (trend): 0.1
Delta (seasonal): 0.3