GLOBAL
TERRORISM
INDEX
01
INTRODUCTION
SPECIAL THANKS
IEP would like to thank the National Consortium for the Study of
Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) headquartered
at the University of Maryland for their cooperation on this study
and for providing the Institute for Economics and Peace with
their Global Terrorism Database (GTD) datasets on terrorism.
IEP would also like to give a special mention to GPI Expert
Panel member Dr Ekaterina Stepanova, Head, Peace and
Conflict Studies Unit, Institute of the World Economy and
International Relations (IMEMO), for her early advice and
guidance in the development of the Global Terrorism Index.
01
INTRODUCTION
CONTENTS
01
02
INTRODUCTION
RESULTS
Results Map
Executive Summary
Methodology
Results Overview
12
14
16
21
Trends in Terrorism
23
28
29
Terrorism By Region
30
03
EXPERT
CONTRIBUTIONS
31
32
Correlates of Terrorism
34
38
40
42
44
04
APPENDICES
46
48
50
01
INTRODUCTION
GLOBAL
TERRORISM
INDEX
2011
RANK.. COUNTRY
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
SCORE
Iraq
Pakistan
Afghanistan
India
Yemen
Somalia
Nigeria
Thailand
Russia
Philippines
Sudan
Congo, Dem Rep.
Colombia
Syria
Algeria
Sri Lanka
Iran
Kenya
Turkey
Israel
Norway
Nepal
China
9.556
9.049
8.669
8.147
7.305
7.244
7.242
7.086
7.068
6.801
6.304
6.182
6.055
5.861
5.831
5.680
5.633
5.266
5.238
5.155
5.031
5.017
4.992
Burundi
Central African Republic
Greece
Egypt
United Kingdom
Indonesia
4.899
4.844
4.597
4.576
4.509
4.505
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
Uganda
Lebanon
Belarus
Myanmar
Cote D'Ivoire
Eritrea
Senegal
Ethiopia
Rwanda
Bangladesh
Morocco
United States
Georgia
Mali
Niger
Spain
Chad
4.492
4.483
4.256
4.088
3.990
3.917
3.864
3.732
3.729
3.672
3.599
3.566
3.428
3.389
3.266
3.086
3.010
Kazakhstan
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Chile
Cameroon
Peru
Tunisia
Mauritania
Paraguay
Ukraine
Italy
Netherlands
2.804
2.708
2.680
2.636
2.627
2.491
2.358
2.181
2.174
2.163
2.066
2.037
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
66
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
81
83
84
85
86
87
Tajikistan
Mexico
Sweden
Germany
France
Australia
Angola
Venezuela
Argentina
Ireland
Austria
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Zimbabwe
Bhutan
Honduras
Canada
Switzerland
Serbia
Denmark
Portugal
Moldova
Guyana
Azerbaijan
Bulgaria
Ecuador
Macedonia (FYR)
Bahrain
Jordan
Uzbekistan
2.016
2.008
1.755
1.743
1.731
1.720
1.696
1.620
1.475
1.456
1.408
1.369
1.360
1.235
1.225
1.177
1.173
1.168
1.129
1.129
0.992
0.976
0.867
0.741
0.679
0.624
0.616
0.585
0.585
01
INTRODUCTION
RANK.. COUNTRY
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
95
97
98
99
99
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
111
113
114
115
SCORE
Czech Republic
Madagascar
Bolivia
Malaysia
Kyrgyzstan
Libya
Hungary
Equatorial Guinea
Mozambique
Armenia
Estonia
Guinea-Bissau
Kuwait
Albania
Cambodia
0.522
0.435
0.415
0.415
0.395
0.346
0.277
0.217
0.203
0.188
0.158
0.158
0.158
0.119
0.119
Tanzania
New Zealand
United Arab Emirates
Haiti
Belgium
Finland
Japan
Swaziland
South Africa
Cyprus
Lesotho
Benin
Papua New Guinea
0.119
0.079
0.079
0.074
0.069
0.069
0.059
0.059
0.054
0.049
0.040
0.030
0.010
=116
Botswana
Brazil
Burkina Faso
Congo, Republic Of
Costa Rica
Croatia
Cuba
Djibouti
Dominican Republic
El Salvador
Gabon
Gambia
Ghana
Guatemala
Guinea
Iceland
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Jamaica
Laos
Latvia
Liberia
Lithuania
Malawi
Mauritius
Mongolia
Montenegro
Namibia
Nicaragua
North Korea
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
=116
Oman
Panama
Poland
Romania
Sierra Leone
Singapore
Slovakia
Slovenia
South Korea
Taiwan
Trinidad and Tobago
Turkmenistan
Uruguay
Vietnam
Zambia
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
01
INTRODUCTION
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
THE GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX (GTI) IS A
COMPREHENSIVE
BODY
OF
WORK
WHICH
SYSTEMATICALLY RANKS THE NATIONS OF THE
WOR L D A C C O R D I N G T O T H E I R T E R R O R I S T A CTIVITY.
01
INTRODUCTION
targets respectively.
Analysis has also been carried out against a range of socioeconomic data to determine what factors may be associated with
terrorism. The factors that correlated the strongest with the GTI
were group grievances, intergroup cohesion, human rights, and
political stability.
Further research conducted by Prof. Raul Caruso indicates an
empirical relationship between youth unemployment, political
grievances and terrorism. These findings are explained in
section three of this report and highlight the importance of both
economic and social cohesion policies.
While corruption did not correlate globally, the ten nations
most impacted by terrorism did all score significantly below the
global average on the World Banks measures of corruption and
Transparency Internationals Corruption Perceptions Index with
many being at the bottom of these indexes. Peace has a strong
statistical relationship to corruption. The aspects of corruption
most associated with decreases in peace are corruption in the
police, military and judiciary. There were a number of other
important factors that were found not to be significant such as a
well-functioning government, a sound business environment and
the equitable distribution of resources.
Given the considerable resources spent on counter-terrorism
operations it is important governments and policymakers use
resources such as the GTI to inform a strategic and intergenerational approach to addressing root causes of terrorism.
The importance of peacebuilding and statebuilding initiatives
cant be overstated in preventing the creation of the attitudes
which are susceptible to exploitation by terrorists. Statebuilding
initiatives need to continue focusing on reducing tensions related
to group grievances and building inter-group cohesion, while
creating political stability and fostering human rights.
40,000
Global Total
30,000
20,000
10,000
Iraq
2002
2007
2011
01
INTRODUCTION
TERRORISM INDEX?
THE GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX (GTI) IS A
COM P R E H E N S I V E A T T E M P T T O A C C O U N T FOR THE
DIRE C T A N D R E L A T I V E I M P A C T O F T E R R O RISM IN
158 C O U N T R I E S I N T E R M S O F I T S E F F E C T ON LIVES
LOST , I N J U R I E S , A N D P R O P E R T Y D A M A G E .
It aggregates the most authoritative data source on terrorism
today, the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) into a composite
score in order to provide an ordinal ranking of nations on
the negative impact of terrorism. The GTD is unique in that it
consists of systematically and comprehensively coded data on
domestic as well as international terrorist incidents and includes
more than 104,000 cases.
Similar in concept to the Global Peace Index (GPI), the GTI is an
attempt to capture the direct effects of terrorist related violence,
in terms of its physical effect. However by counting prior years
with a lower weighting to earlier years it also takes into account
the residual effects of terrorism in terms of emotional wounds
and fear.
Given the resources committed to counter terrorism efforts
internationally today, it is important to analyze and aggregate
available data related to terrorism to better understand its
various properties such as the differing economic conditions,
geopolitical aspects, and ideological aims of terrorists groups;
types of strategic and tactical terrorist targets; and how these
evolve over time. In this context, one of the key aims of
the GTI is to examine these trends to help inform a positive
and practical debate about the future of terrorism and policy
responses.
The GTI was developed in consultation with the GPI Expert
Panel, and in particular with the advice of Expert Panel member
and terrorism expert Dr Ekaterina Stepanova. The creation of
the index started during the process of updating and improving
the terrorism indicator in the GPI from a qualitative measure
of the potential for terrorist acts to a quantitative indicator
informed by the GTD. The Occupied Palestinian Territories is
the only region affected by significant amounts of terrorism that
is not included in the index.3
Defining terrorism is not a straightforward matter. There is no
single internationally accepted definition of what constitutes
terrorism, and the terrorism literature abounds with competing
definitions and typologies. The GTI accepts the terminology and
definitions agreed to by START researchers and its advisory
panel. The GTI therefore defines terrorism as the threatened
or actual use of illegal force and violence by a non-state
actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social
goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation. This definition
recognizes that terrorism is not only the direct physical act of
an attack, but also the psychological impact it has on a society,
sometimes for many years after.
In the GTD, for data coded from 1997 to today, in order to be
included an incident has to be: an intentional act of violence
or threat of violence by a non-state actor. This means an
incident has to meet three criteria in order for it to be counted
as a terrorist act:
1.
2.
3.
t
t
t
A bomb goes off, and while police are working on the scene
the next day, they are attacked by terrorists with automatic
weapons. These are two separate incidents, as they were
not continuous, given the time lag between the two events.
t
t
01
INTRODUCTION
METHODOLOGY
GTI SCORING SYSTEM
t
t
t
DIMENSION
t
WEIGHT
# OF
RECORDS
FOR THE
GIVEN
YEAR
SCORE
21
21
36
108
0.5
53
26.5
20
40
195.5
DIMENSION
WEIGHT
0.5
Given these indicator values, the country for that year would be
assessed as having a raw impact of terrorism score of:
TABLE 2 Property damage levels as defined in the GTD and weights used in the
Global Terrorism Index
CODE
DAMAGE LEVEL
Unknown
WEIGHT
% OF
SCORE
Current year
16
52%
Previous year
26%
13%
6%
3%
YEAR
01
INTRODUCTION
2.
3.
1
2,000
2
4.
BANDED
SCORE
3
4,000
5.5
218.06
0.5
1.63
13
355.77
2.66
14
6.5
580.45
1.5
4.34
15
947.03
7.09
16
7.5
1545.12
2.5
11.56
17
2520.93
18.86
18
8.5
4113.00
3.5
30.77
19
6710.52
50.21
20
9.5
10948.48
10
4.5
81.92
21
10
17862.87
11
133.65
BANDS
BANDS
CUT OFF
VALUE
BANDS
CUT OFF
VALUE
12
BAND #
BANDS
0.00
BAND #
6,000
6
8,000
7
8
10,000
9
12,000
10
10
01
INTRODUCTION
BY INCOME GROUP
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
SECTION 1 REFERENCES
1. This only captures the success of terrorist incidents once they have been
executed and not foiled attempts by security and counter terrorism authorities.
2. Afghanistan has been included in the Asia-Pacific region.
3. This follows Global Peace Index convention, further detail on the Palestinian
score is provided in the Results section of this report.
4. Where there is doubt, GTD analysts would code an incident as conforming
to one of four possible alternative designations: 1) Insurgency/Guerilla Action; 2)
Other Crime Type; 3) Intra/Inter-group Conflict; or 4) Lack of Intentionality.
5. (2012). Global Terrorism Database: Codebook: Inclusion Criteria and Variables.
Washington D.C. , National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses
to Terrorism (START). pp7 URL: http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/downloads/
Codebook.pdf
6. Throughout this report the following four terms will be used to describe trends
in the data:
t
t
Annual GTI activity score: the sum total of the GTI Incident score all events
in any given year, used as an indicator of how active terrorism was in any
given year
t
Annual GTI raw weighted average score: is the 5 year weighted average
of the Annual GTI activity score used as an indicator of both the immediate
and lingering impact of terrorism
t
Annual GTI banded score: the Annual GTI raw weighted average score
logarithmically banded between 0 to 10
11
02
RESULTS
RESULTS
OVERVIEW
THE G L O B A L I M P A C T O F T E R R O R I S M I N C REASED
SIGN I F I C A N T L Y FR O M 2 0 0 2 T O 2 0 0 7 . I T R EACHED
ITS P E A K I N 2 0 0 7 A N D H A S S I N C E P L A T E A UED.
The biggest rise took place over the period from 2005 to
2007 when the majority of the global increase in terrorism was
driven by events in Iraq. Four other countries also significantly
contributed to the global rise with Pakistan, India, Afghanistan,
and the Philippines all experiencing increases, especially
between 2007 and 2009.
It is worth noting only 20 nations scored a zero for terrorist
impact over the 2002-2011 period, indicating the impact
of terror, while heavily concentrated in some places like
Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, is nonetheless widely
distributed around the world.
There has been a significant increase in the total number of
terrorist incidents over the ten year period with the number
of terrorist incidents increasing by 464%. The most significant
jump was from 2007 to 2008 with incidents rising from 2520 to
over 4000. Since then the number of incidents has plateaued.
The success rate of these attacks remained very high ranging
between 89% and 97%. In 2011 the average rate of success
was 91%. From 2004 there has been an increase in the total
global number of injuries from terrorist incidents which reached
its peak in 2009, while the number of fatalities peaked in 2007
and by 2011 were back to a similar level to 2006.
The results for 2011 show Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan were
the three countries most affected by terrorism that year. Of
the 158 nations included in the GTI, 84 did not suffer a terrorist
incident in 2011.
t5FSSPSJTUTXFSFNPTUMJLFMZUPUBSHFUQSJWBUFDJUJ[FOTBOE
property, government, police, and business. The trends for
these attacks have been increasing as a percentage for all
targets since 2002.
t(MPCBMJODJEFOUT
GBUBMJUJFTBOEJOKVSJFTBSFEPNJOBUFECZ
events in Lower Middle Income Countries, not Low Income
countries, with 65% of incidents, 69% of fatalities and 73% of all
injuries recorded in Lower Middle Income countries.
t-PXFS.JEEMF*ODPNF$PVOUSJFTBDDPVOUGPSTFWFOPGUIFUFO
countries most affected by terrorism.
t5IFNBKPSJUZPGHMPCBMJODJEFOUT
GBUBMJUJFTBOEJOKVSJFTPDDVS
in countries with Hybrid Regimes, which account for 46% of
incidents, 54% of fatalities and 60% of all injuries.
t
t
t
t
KEY FACTS
t5IFOVNCFSPGJODJEFOUTBOEUIFOVNCFSPGTVDDFTTGVMBUUBDLT
has steadily increased over the last decade.
t0GUIFDPVOUSJFTSBOLFE
POMZEJEOPUFYQFSJFODFBOZ
terrorist impact over the 2002-2011 period.
t.PTUUFSSPSJTUBUUBDLTPDDVSJOUIFDPOUFYUPGBXJEFSDPOGMJDU
situation.
RANK
COUNTRY
GTI SCORE
Iraq
9.56
t5FSSPSJTUBUUBDLTBSFIJHIMZDPODFOUSBUFEJOBSFMBUJWFMZGFX
places; the ten countries with the most terrorist incidents
for 2011 accounted for 87% of total global incidents. All ten
recorded over 100 incidents for the year.
Pakistan
9.05
Afghanistan
8.67
India
8.15
t'SPNUPPWFSPOFUIJSEPGBMMWJDUJNTLJMMFEJO
terrorist attacks were Iraqi.
Yemen
7.30
Somalia
7.24
Nigeria
7.24
t#ZUIFFOEPG
*SBRBOE"GHIBOJTUBOBDDPVOUFEGPSPG
the global total number of terrorist incidents from 2002.
t8IJMTUSFMJHJPVTUFSSPSJTNPGUFOHFUTXJEFTQSFBEDPWFSBHF
there is a significant level of terrorism from non-religious
groups.
t8FTUFSO&VSPQFFYQFSJFODFENBOZNPSFUFSSPSJTUJODJEFOUT
than the U.S. from 2002 to 2011, with 19 times more deaths than
the U.S.
12
Thailand
7.09
Russia
7.07
10
Philippines
6.80
02
RESULTS
Iceland
Panama
Botswana
Jamaica
Poland
Burkina Faso
South Korea
Romania
Republic of Congo
Laos
Sierra Leone
Costa Rica
Latvia
Singapore
Croatia
Liberia
Slovakia
Cuba
Lithuania
Slovenia
Djibouti
Malawi
Taiwan
Dominican Republic
Mauritius
El Salvador
Mongolia
Turkmenistan
Gabon
Montenegro
Uruguay
Gambia
Namibia
Vietnam
Ghana
Nicaragua
Zambia
Guatemala
North Korea
Guinea
Oman
13
02
RESULTS
TERRORIST
INCIDENTS
2002-2011
14
02
RESULTS
19
3
2
16
1
5, 13
COUNTRY
CITY
DATE
FATALITIES
INJURIES
Nepal
Bedi
21/3/2004
518
216
Spain
Madrid
11/3/2004
191
1800
Russia
Beslan
1/9/2004
344
727
Iraq
Tal Afar
30/3/2007
290
340
India
Mumbai
12/7/2006
187
817
Nigeria
Maiduguri
27/7/2009
304
Unknown
Iraq
Baghdad
I25/10/2009
153
720
Indonesia
Kuta
12/10/2002
202
300
Iraq
Baghdad
14/9/2005
160
542
10
Iraq
Baghdad
23/11/2006
202
257
11
Iraq
Baghdad
3/12/2006
183
278
12
Iraq
Kahtaniyah
15/8/2007
200
170
13
India
Mumbai
26/11/2008
183
252
14
Iraq
Baghdad
8/12/2009
132
500
15
Iraq
Tal Afar
27/3/2007
153
351
16
Afghanistan
Herat
12/5/2006
206
17
Iraq
Mosul
16/8/2007
200
Unknown
18
Iraq
Baghdad
19/8/2009
104
568
19
United Kingdom
London
7/7/2005
56
784
20
Iraq
Amerli
7/7/2007
150
250
15
02
RESULTS
10 COUNTRIES WHERE
TERRORISM HAD THE
GREATEST IMPACT IN 2011
1. IRAQ - 9.56
2. PAKISTAN - 9.05
INCIDENTS: 1228
FATALITIES: 1798
INJURIES: 4905
INCIDENTS: 910
FATALITIES: 1468
INJURIES: 2459
The number of fatalities has been trending upwards for the last
decade going from 96 deaths recorded in 2002, to 1468 in
2011. Almost two thirds of the terrorist attacks were in the form
of bombings/explosions followed by firearms. Most attacks took
place in Karachi, Peshawar and Quetta with further significant
activity in Bajaur, Dera Bugti (District), Khyber (District) and
Mohmand. This indicates significant and widespread terrorist
activities within Pakistan. Pakistan is dealing with many Islamic
groups other than the Taliban such as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
(TTP) or internal tensions between ethnic/tribal groups and the
government in Islamabad.
16
02
RESULTS
3. AFGHANISTAN - 8.67
4. INDIA - 8.15
INCIDENTS: 364
FATALITIES: 1293
INJURIES: 1882
INCIDENTS: 529
FATALITIES: 402
INJURIES: 667
India ranks 89th out of the 108 countries in the Positive Peace
index. It performs poorly on all the indicators of positive peace
where it falls below the world average although the Wellfunctioning Government indicator is close to the world average.
It ranks third last in the region in terms of having the necessary
formal and informal institutions in place which can create and
sustain a peaceful environment.
17
02
RESULTS
5. YEMEN - 7.30
6. SOMALIA - 7.24
INCIDENTS: 113
FATALITIES: 454
INJURIES: 415
INCIDENTS: 175
FATALITIES: 294
INJURIES: 493
18
Date: 04/10/2011
Location: Mogadishu
Target: Government
Group Responsible: Al-Shabaab
Fatalities: 71
Injuries: 42
In Mogadishu, Banaadir, Somalia, 70 people were killed and 42
people were injured when a Somali national, Bashar Abdulahi
Nur, detonated a suicide vehicle borne improvised explosive
device (SVBIED) targeting the compound that houses several
Somali government ministries. The SVBIED was made of a truck
that had been loaded with drums of fuel. The attack caused
an unknown amount of material damage. The militant group
Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack.
02
RESULTS
7. NIGERIA - 7.24
8. THAILAND - 7.09
INCIDENTS: 168
FATALITIES: 437
INJURIES: 614
INCIDENTS: 173
FATALITIES: 142
INJURIES: 427
19
02
RESULTS
9. RUSSIA - 7.07
INCIDENTS: 182
FATALITIES: 159
INJURIES: 431
INCIDENTS: 125
FATALITIES: 120
INJURIES: 213
20
02
RESULTS
TERRORISM, 2002-2011
INCREASING
DECREASING
Iraq
United States
Pakistan
Algeria
Afghanistan
Colombia
Yemen
Israel
Somalia
Indonesia
Increasing
Decreasing
Stayed
the Same
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-2,000
-4,000
Iraq
Pakistan
Afghanistan
Yemen
Somalia
Indonesia
Israel
Columbia
Algeria
U.S.A.
21
02
RESULTS
22
02
RESULTS
TRENDS IN
TERRORISM
TERRORISM
HAS
INCREASED
MARKEDLY
SINCE 2002. BY INVESTIGATING THIS TREND
ACROSS A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT AREAS,
IT
IS
POSSIBLE
TO
DEVELOP
A
FULLER
UND E R S T A N D I N G O F T H E C A U S E S O F T H I S TREND.
Chart five shows the trends in the GTI annual activity score
of all terrorist incidents since 2002. In 2011, the global trend
suggests that terrorist activity has increased by 234% when
compared to 2002 levels. However, further examination shows
that Iraq, being the country ranked first in the GTI, is highly
influential in the global trend. Furthermore, since 2007, terrorist
impact in Iraq has been decreasing, while in the rest of the
world it has continued to increase mainly due to increases in
incidents in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and the Philippines.
This divergence results in a plateau in the global trend.
40,000
Global Total
30,000
20,000
10,000
Iraq
2002
2007
2011
Total Incidents
4000
Successful Attacks
3000
2000
1000
0
2002
2011
Global Total
4000
Rest of
the World
3000
2000
Iraq
1000
2002
2007
2011
23
02
RESULTS
CHART 8 The five countries with the most incidents recorded from 2002 to 2011
Iraq is the country with the most terrorist attacks with incidents steadily rising since
2002. India and Pakistan have been increasingly affected by terrorism since 2007.
1200
Iraq
1000
Pakistan
800
600
India
400
Afghanistan
200
Philippines
0
2002
24
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
02
RESULTS
Iraq
10,000
Total
Pakistan
8,000
6,000
Afghanistan
4,000
India
Iraq
2,000
Russia
0
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
2002
25000
2007
2011
5000
15,000
4000
Injuries
10,000
3000
Iraq
2000
Fatalities
Pakistan
5000
Afghanistan
1000
India
Russia
0
2002
2007
2011
Terrorists
Injured
0
2002
Terrorists
Killed
2011
25
02
RESULTS
3000
Explosives
2500
2000
1500
Firearms
1000
500
Unknown
Incendiary
Others
2002
2007
2011
1.0
2002
2011
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
< 10
Terrorists
< 20
Terrorists
< 30
Terrorists
< 40
Terrorists
< 50
Terrorists
Other
(20%)
Military
(4%)
Private Citizens
and Property
(29%)
Transportation
(6%)
Business
(10%)
Government
(17%)
Police
(14%)
26
02
RESULTS
2000
1500
Private Citizens
& Property
1000
Government
Police
500
Business
Military
Transportation
Educational
Institution
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
CHART 17 Types of targets for the five countries most affected by terrorism, total 2002-2011 incidents
2500
Afghanistan
India
Iraq
Pakistan
Thailand
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Business
Education
Government
Police
Military
27
02
RESULTS
TERRORISM BY
GOVERNMENT TYPE
CHART 18 Incidents by government type
Countries with a hybrid regime of government are most affected by terrorism.
FULL
DEMOCRACY
HYBRID
REGIME
FLAWED
DEMOCRACY
AUTHORITARIAN
REGIME
2500
7000
2000
6000
5000
1500
4000
1000
3000
2000
500
1000
0
2002
2007
2011
0
2002
2007
2011
TABLE 10 Top ten countries most affected by terrorism in 2011 and their
government type
150
120
COUNTRY
GOVERNMENT TYPE
Afghanistan
Authoritarian regime
India
Flawed democracy
Iraq
Hybrid regime
Nigeria
Authoritarian regime
Pakistan
Hybrid regime
Philippines
Flawed democracy
Russia
Hybrid regime
Somalia
Unclassified
Thailand
Flawed democracy
Yemen
Authoritarian Regime
90
60
30
0
2002
2007
2011
28
02
RESULTS
TERRORISM BY
INCOME GROUP
LOW INCOME
HIGH INCOME
3500
8000
3000
7000
6000
2500
5000
2000
4000
1500
3000
1000
2000
500
1000
0
2002
2007
2011
0
2002
2007
2011
TABLE 11 Top ten countries most affected by terrorism and their income group
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
COUNTRY
INCOME GROUP
Afghanistan
Low income
India
Iraq
Nigeria
Pakistan
Philippines
Russia
Somalia
Low income
Thailand
Yemen
0
2002
2007
2009
2011
29
02
RESULTS
TERRORISM
BY REGION
CHART 24 Number of incidents by geographic region
Asia-Pacific, Middle-East and North Africa are the regions most affected by
terrorism
2500
Middle East
and North Africa
2000
Asia-Pacific
Middle East
and North Africa
1500
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Central and
Eastern Europe
1000
Latin America
Rest of World
Western
Europe
500
North America
0
2002
2007
30
2011
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
COUNTRY
REGION TYPE
Iraq
Pakistan
Asia-Pacific
Afghanistan
Asia-Pacific
India
Asia-Pacific
Yemen
Somalia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Nigeria
Sub-Saharan Africa
Thailand
Asia-Pacific
Russia
Philippines
Asia-Pacific
02
RESULTS
CASE STUDY:
US, UK, EUROPE
CHART 26 Numbers of Incidents in the US, UK, and EU since 2002
The EU has suffered from more terrorist attacks in the past ten years than the
US.
300
250
600
200
Western Europe
500
400
150
300
100
200
UK
50
100
UK
US
US
0
2002
2007
2011
2002
2007
2011
31
02
RESULTS
TERRORIST GROUPS
AND IDEOLOGY
There is a significant overlap between
terrorist incidents and fatalities by region,
and by terrorist group. Excluding attacks
by unknown terrorist groups, most attacks
are carried out by groups operating within
conflict situations. The Taliban can be
given the dubious title of having caused
the highest number of fatalities followed
closely by al-Qaida.
The rise of religious extremism is welldocumented with a clear rise in the
number of incidents since 2002. The
most prolific religious terrorist groups are
almost exclusively Islamic.
In an interesting trend, since 2008 there
has been a marked decrease in the
number of terrorist incidents from groups
with nationalist/separatist ideologies. It
could be argued that a number of Islamic
terrorist groups such as the Taliban or
Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) have nationalist/
separatist aspirations, so the reduction
in groups with outwardly nationalist/
separatist agendas is absorbed, to some
extent, in the Religious category.
The number of political groups which
use terrorism is noteworthy: although the
category of Political Organizations only
constitutes roughly 10% of known terrorist
groups, five out of the ten most active
terrorist groups are political organizations.
In terms of magnitude, The Communist
Party of India (Maoists) has caused nearly
the same amount of deaths as al-Qaida
in Iraq.
Charts 28 and 29 detail the ten most
active terrorist organisations based on
total number of incidents and fatalities.
The Taliban is the organization that is
responsible for both the most incidents
and fatalities. However, the two are
not always closely linked. For example,
al-Qaida in Iraq is responsible for the
second largest number of fatalities, yet it
doesnt rank in the top ten with regard to
the number of incidents. Of the GTD data
used in this study, the perpetrators of
60% of all events are unknown.
Taliban
Communist Party of
India - Maoist (CPI-M)
Revolutionary Armed
Forces of Colombia (FARC)
Liberation Tigers of
Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
Al-Shabaab
New People's Army
Other
Maoists
Algerian Islamic
Extremists
Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Taliban
Al-Qa'ida in Iraq
Islamic State
of Iraq (ISI)
Lord's Resistance
Army (LRA)
Communist Party of
India - Maoist (CPI-M)
Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP)
Liberation Tigers of
Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
Revolutionary Armed
Forces of Colombia (FARC)
Tawhid and Jihad
Boko Haram
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
*The three organisations Tawhid and Jihad, Al-Qaida in Iraq, and Islamic State of Iraq were
all headed Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. These three are essentially the same organisation. If the
three organisations are treated as one then the fatalities committed would be the same as the
Taliban.
32
02
RESULTS
1000
Religious
800
600
Political
400
Nationalist/Separatist
200
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
CHART 31 Terrorist group activity in the ten countries most affected by terrorism
S - Small Groups
U - Unknown Groups
AI - Al Qaida in Iraq
ISI - Islamic State of Iraq
AIE - Algerian Islamic Extremists
GSPC - Salafist Group for Preaching and Fighting
FARC - Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia
ASG - Abu Sayyaf Group
NPA - New Peoples Army
CPI-M - Communist Party of India - Maoist
ULFA - United Liberation Front of Assam
AQLIM - Al-Qaida in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb
S
MILF - Moro Islamic Liberation Front
U
2011
S
U
AI
FARC
ISI
S
MILF
U
ASG
NPA
S
AIE
GSPC
S
U
TTP
CPI-M
ULFA
U
Taliban
S
U
AQLIM
S
U
Al-Shabaab
33
02
RESULTS
CORRELATES OF
TERRORISM
TO FURTHER UNDERSTAND WHAT TYPES OF
FACT O R S A R E L IN K E D W I T H T E R R O R I S M AND ITS
IMPA C T O N S O C I E T Y , I E P H A S C O R R E L A T ED THE
INDEX WITH OVER 40 SECONDARY DATASETS
MEASURING VARIOUS SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND
GOV E R N A N C E M E A S U R E S .
It has found that higher levels of terrorism are most strongly
associated with the following key factors:9
t
t
TABLE 14 Correlation between the GTI and the Global Peace Index indicators
INDICATOR
CORRELATION
Overall Score
0.61
Internal Peace
0.52
External Peace
0.48
0.30
-0.04
-0.04
-0.05
0.26
0.49
t
t
0.33
0.27
t
Political instability
0.33
0.59
t
-0.01
Terrorist acts
0.97
t
0.23
0.09
t
0.07
UN Funding
0.14
0.00
0.07
Military capability/sophistication
0.24
0.32
t
SOURCE
INDEX
FACTOR
CORRELATION
Failed States
Index
Group
Grievance
0.56
Escola de Cultura
de Pau
Human Rights
Index
Overall
Score
0.72
IDMC
International
Institute of Social
Studies
World Bank
34
Indices of Social
Development
Worldwide
Governance
Indicators
Refugees
and
Internally
Displaced
Persons
0.51
Intergroup
Cohesion
-0.67
Political
Stability
-0.67
0.33
0.45
0.17
02
RESULTS
Low
Internal
Peace
4.5
AFG
IRQ
SOM
4
COD
SDN
NGA
LBY
3.5
CAF
BDI
ZWE
HND
GTM
JAM
ZAF
KGZ
HTI
COG
TTO
GNB
PNG
UZB
GIN
BEN
TKM
KHM MDG
BRA
SWZ
DOM
LBR BOLECU
GNQ
BHR
MWI
NIC
MRT
PRY
TJK
GUY
KAZ
PER
TUN SAU
AGO
GMB
BFA
MDA
TZA
ARM
UKR
SLE
AZE
NAM
CUB
GHA
ALB
DJI
MNG
MNE
MKD
MOZ
ARG
OMN
BIH
SRB
KWT
LAO
LVA
URY
JOR
CRI
LTU
ARE
2BWA
ITA
BGR
MUS
VNM
HRV
ROU
CYP
ESTMYS
FRA
KOR
SVK HUN
PRT
TWN
IRL AUS NLD
POL
SGP
BTN
BEL
CZE
AUT DEU
1.5
FIN
SVN
CAN
NZL
SWE
CHE
JPN
ISL
High
DNK
Internal
Peace
THA
EGY
LBN
UGA
NER
GEO
BGD
PHL
KEN
MMR
ETH
RWA
CMR
LSO
ZMB
2.5GAB
PAN
PAK
CIV
VEN
3 SLV
COL
SYR
TCD
MEX
PRK
YEM
RUS
TUR
ISR
IND
IRNDZA
BLR
MLI
CHN
NPL
ERI
SEN
LKA
IDN
MAR
GRC
USA
CHL
ESP
GBR
NOR
QAT
1
0
Low TerrorismImpact
10
HighTerrorismImpact
SOM
Low
Overall
Peacefulness
AFG
IRQ
SDN
COD
RUS
3PRK
CAF
LBY
ISR
SYR
PAK
NGA
TCD
COL
GEO
ZWE
MEX
2.5
CIV
AZE
KGZ
HND
ZAF
MRT
GTM
VEN
BHR
TKM
ARM
BEN
JAM
SLV
UZB
KHM
HTI
SAU
KAZ
COG
LBR MDG
TJK
CMR
GNB
AGO
TTO
PNG
GIN
DOM
GNQ
ECU
SWZ
BRA
MNE
NIC BOL
PER
PRY
GAB
GMB
CYP
TUN
UKR
CUB
MKD GUY
ALB
MDA
SRBBIH
2MWI
JOR
PAN
OMN
MNG
BFA
DJI
TZA
LSO
SLE
ZMB
GHA
NAM
MOZ
KWT
ARE
LVA
ARG
LTU
KOR
EST
FRA
BGR
ITA
LAO
CRI
HRV
VNM
URY
ROU
BWA
CHL
NLD
TWN
SVK
POL
SGP
MUSHUN
MYS
1.5
ETH
BEL
FIN
SVN
JPN
NZL
MMR
IND
LBN
PHL
TUR
ERI
RWA
NER
MLI
YEM
BDI
KEN
BLR EGY
THA
DZA
LKA
UGA
BGD
USA
IRN
CHN
SEN
GRC
NPL
IDN
MAR
GBR
ESP
BTN
PRT
AUS
NOR
DEU
SWE
CZE
QAT
CHE
IRL
CANAUT
DNK
ISL
High
Overall
Peacefulness
1
1
Low TerrorismImpact
10
HighTerrorismImpact
35
02
RESULTS
Low
Intergroup
Cohesion
IRQ
0.1
0.2
SOM
0.3
PAK
AFG
SDN
LKA
LBN
BGD CIV
0.4
NGA
ISR
IND
BDI
MMR
PHL THA
YEM
COD
UGA
MRT
BTN
TUR
RWA
ETH
PER
GUY
BHR
HTI BOL
UZB
JOR
TCDNER
IDN
ECU
BIH
ZWE
SAU
MKD
GEO
0.5COG
MAR
EGY
MEX
KEN
PNG
KHMKGZ
VEN
CMR
AGO
MWI
LBR
SLE
CHN
TJK
MNE
SRB
ERI
GNQ
TTO
TKM
PAN
EST
SEN
AZE HND
TZA
MLI
BRA
FRA
KAZ
BGR
PRK
GHA
KWT
BFA
ZAF
HUN
PRY
BLR GRC
NAM
DOM
TUN
GAB
LVA
MDA
CYP MYS
KOR
NIC
JAM
LAO
SLV
LTU
ARMMDG
ZMB
SVK
CRI
ALB
HRV
MNG
CUB
USA
GMB
PRT
BEL
ESP
DNK
ROU
ARGAUS NLD
UKR
MOZ CZE
SVN
VNM
ARE
GBR
0.6BWA
DEU ITA
SGP
POL
URY
QAT
CHL
NZL
OMN
TWN
CHE
CANAUT
NOR
FIN
JPN
IRL
ISL
GIN
GTM
IRN COL
DZA
SYR
RUS
SWE
0.7
High
Intergroup
Coehsion
0.8
0
Low TerrorismImpact
10
HighTerrorismImpact
SDN
ISR
High
Group
Grievances
TCD
NGA
SOM
LKA
AFG PAK
BGD
ZWE
NPL
MMR LBN
CIV
CYP
MRT
BTN
BOL
HTI
KHM
ETH
RWA
BIH
KGZ
GIN
AZE SRB
MKD
UZB
GTM
PRK
PNG
LBR
KEN
IRQ
SYR
IRN
GEO
NER
CMR
CAF
CHN
YEM
COD
LAO
BRA
SLE
MNE
TZA
DOM
MWI
NICARM
LBY
COG
ROU
ZAF
SLV
RUS
COL
SAU
PHL
VEN
ECU
BHR
MYS
JOR
7TKMGNQ
IND
THA
DZA
TJK
PER
MDA
BLR
IDN
UKR
PRY
AGO
MEX
MAR
SEN
KAZ ESP MLI
FRA
GUY
ZMB
6VNM
ERI
TUN
GHA
HRV
BFA
EST
NAM MDG
CUB
ALB
SVK
KWT
HND
ITA
ARG
DEU
5PAN
ARE
MOZ
QAT
BWA
NLD
BEL
JAM
BGR
CRI
MNG
GMB
SWZ
JPN
CZE
AUT
LTU
4KOR
AUS
POL
CHE
NZLHUN
CAN
DNK
GAB
SVN
OMN
SGP
GRC
GBR
USA
CHL
3
URY
PRT
FIN
IRL SWE
NOR
ISL
1
Low
Group
Grievances
0
0
1
Low TerrorismImpact
36
10
HighTerrorismImpact
02
RESULTS
SOM
AFG PAK
SDN
IRQ
YEM
COD
CAF
GIN
TCD
BGD CIV
ZWEVEN
MRT
NGA
NPL
ETH MMR
COL
LBN
BDI ISR
KEN
IRN
PHL
LKA
DZA
NER
UGA
TJK
GEO
PRY
PER
UZB
TUR
ERI
1GTM BOLECU
MEX
MDG
IDN
EGY
KHM
PNG
BIH
GUY
NIC KGZ
MDA
SRB
CHN
MAR
COG
CMR
SLE
AZE
SAU
JAM
RWA
HND
UKR
MLI
PRK
AGO
JOR
MKD
ESP
SEN
BFA
ALB
GRC
MWI
GNQ
ARG
LAO
ZAF
TTO
SWZ
CUB
SLV
TZA
ARMMYS
GAB
DOM
PAN
GHA
TKM
VNM
0GMB
KOR
TUN
BRA
GBR
MNG
BLR
CYP
ROU
USA
KWT
LVA
BGR
MOZ
ZMB
ITA
TWN
FRA
MNE
EST
HRV
HUN
LBY
CHL
KAZ
CRI
LTU
BTN
THA
IND
LBR
HTI
BEL
NAM
OMN
SVN
URY
SVK
POL
BWA
ARE
JPN
NZL
PRT
BHR
CZE
AUS
DEU
CAN IRL
DNK
AUT SWE
CHE
SGP
1 ISL
RUS
SYR
NLD
QAT
NOR
FIN
High
Political
Stability
2
0
Low TerrorismImpact
10
10
HighTerrorismImpact
Low
Respectfor
HumanRights
9
COD
PAK
SDN
NGA
SOM
LKA
MMR
TCD
IRN
ETH
PHL
ISR
IRQ
IND
UGA
YEM
COL
GNQ UZB
HTI
PRK
GIN
KHM
CUB
4SGP
VNM
SEN
CIV
AGO
JOR
BHRAZE
HND
SYR
DZA
BDI
NPL
VEN
ARMMDG
3COG
PER
NER
MDA
TJK
RWA
BLR
KAZ
CMR
QAT
LBN
ECU GUY
BGR
GEO
LBR
ZMB
TTO
KWT MKD
JPN
GHA
DOM
SLV
MOZ
MNE
ROU
CYP
ALB
LVA
URY
POL
EST
1TWN
BFA
BELHUNCZE
NAM
SVK
FIN
LTU
NZL
SVN
KEN
IDN
UKR
ARE
TZALBY
BRA
GTM
ZAF
NIC
SWZ
LAO
JAM
2OMN
PNG
CAF
BGD ERI
TUN
TKM KGZ
KOR
MWI
SLE
MNG
HRV BOL
EGY
MAR
SAU
THA
MEX
MYS
CHNTUR
USA
ZWE
High
Respectfor
HumanRights
AFG
RUS
GRC
SRBBIH
ARG
ITA
CHL
FRA
CANAUT
NLD
PRY
CHE
DEU
AUS
DNK
PRT
SWE
IRL
ESP
GBR
0
0
1
Low TerrorismImpact
10
HighTerrorismImpact
37
02
RESULTS
CORRUPTION AND
TERRORISM
ALTHOUGH
THE
CORRELATION
BETWEEN
CORRUPTION AND TERRORISM IS NOT STRONG;
A DEEPER INVESTIGATION HIGHLIGHTS THAT
THOSE
COUNTRIES
WITH
THE
HIGHEST
LEVELS OF TERRORIST ACTIVITY ALSO SCORE
VERY POORLY ON CORRUPTION MEASURES.
Four of the 15 countries with the highest level of terrorist activity
are ranked in the bottom ten on the Corruption Perception Index
with the rest being in bottom third and only Thailand and India
having mid-ranking scores on corruption.
There are many countries which are corrupt but do not have
terrorism, therefore corruption on its own does not necessarily
lead to terrorism, however nations severely affected by terrorism
share high levels of corruption.
The relationship between peace and corruption has a very
distinctive shape as can be seen in chart 38. As corruption
increases it has little effect on peace until a tipping point is
reached, after which very small increases in corruption result
in very large decreases in peacefulness. The countries most
affected by terrorism have been highlighted.
Not surprisingly countries which are most affected by terrorism
also score very poorly on the Global Peace Index (GPI) and
dominate the bottom ten countries on the GPI. Not one of the
fifteen countries most affected by terrorism was above the
bottom third of the GPI.
CHART 38 Corruption Perceptions Index vs Global Peace Index, 2011
10
HighPeace,Low
Corruption
9
0.2
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
Low
Corruption
0.06
2002
2011
CorruptionPerceptionsIndex
In the last
year...
Thailand
India
3
PhillipinesNigeria
Yemen
Russia
Iraq
Afghanistan
Somalia
GCB QUESTION
CORRELATION
WITH GLOBAL
PEACE INDEX
CORRELATION
WITH INTERNAL
PEACE
% Believe
corruption has
stayed the same
-0.41
-0.46
% Believe
corruption has
increased
0.15
0.18
Political Parties
-0.03
0.02
Parliament
0.19
0.23
Police
0.46
0.56
Business
-0.26
-0.30
Medical Services
-0.09
-0.17
Low Peace,High
Corruption
0
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
GlobalPeaceIndex
38
% who see
the institution
as corrupt
or extremely
corrupt
Civil Servants
0.33
0.37
Judiciary
0.33
0.40
Military
0.43
0.44
Educational
System
0.37
0.39
0.53
0.63
02
RESULTS
SECTION 2 REFERENCES
7. See Appendix B for a list of the 100 worst terrorist incidents in the GTD
database, 2002-2011
8. (2012). Pillars of Peace: Finding the attitudes, institutions, and structures most
closely associated with peace. IEP Report Sydney, Institute for Economics and
Peace. no.18.
9. IEP considers a correlation greater than 0.5 or less than -0.5 to be significant
10. Internally Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), Internally Displaced People
Database.
11. Defined as the absence of violence and the absence of the fear of violence.
39
03
EXPERT
CONTRIBUTIONS
03
EXPERT
CONTRIBUTIONS
41
03
EXPERT
CONTRIBUTIONS
BEYOND Al-QAIDA
Bill Braniff
HISTORICAL CONTEXT
The al-Qaida organization gained centrality among militant
organizations as a result of the role played by key members
during the anti-Soviet Jihad. Through their participation in
a logistical organization known as the Maktab al-Khidamat,
or the Service Bureau, Usama bin Ladin and his key
associates networked extensively with individual recruits and
organizations that traveled to support the defensive jihad of the
Afghan mujahidin. The Services Bureau created mobilization
infrastructure largely in the safe-haven provided by the Haqqani
network, which promulgated local and global jihadist sentiment
prior to the conflict with the Soviet Union. Tens of thousands
of volunteers, many veterans of previous or on-going local
and regional conflicts, socialized together in the intake and
42
03
EXPERT
CONTRIBUTIONS
IDEOLOGICAL CONTEXT
The al-Qaida organization is a reincarnation - the latest
manifestation of a militant idea which has surfaced at moments
of crisis throughout Sunni Islamic history. The grand-strategy
formulated by al-Qaida in the context of the first Gulf War
embodies a logic previously articulated but not widely
accepted. Scholars such as Ahmed Ibn Taymiyya argued
that the reason the seat of the caliphate, Baghdad, had been
sacked by the Mongols in the middle of the 13th century was
that Muslims had turned their back on the proper, archetypal
modality of Islam realized during the time of the Prophet
Mohammad and his contemporaries - the establishment of a
theocracy in which Islam served as the organizing principle of
society.
Of particular importance to todays violence, Ibn Taymiyya
not only diagnosed the problem through the lens of political
Islam, but provided the justification for revolutionary violence
that jihadists cite today. In the anti-Mongul fatwas, written
half a century after the Monguls had conquered the Abbasid
Caliphate and after many had converted to Islam, Ibn Taymiyya
excommunicated them and their proxy rulers for not governing
by an unadulterated interpretation of Islamic law. For this sin,
he declared that they were no longer Muslim and could be
violently overthrown, upending the Sunni convention of nonviolence towards Muslim (even tyrannical or incompetent) rulers.
In the 19th and 20th centuries, the ravages of colonialism, the
failures nationalism, monarchism, Marxism, and pan-Arabism in
the post-colonial Middle East and North Africa, similar failures
in South Asia, and the creation of the states of Israel and
Pakistan among others all contributed to the current rise of
militant Islamism. In this incarnation, an imprisoned Egyptian
named Sayyid Qutb called for a vanguard to act upon the ideas
put forward by ideologues like Ibn Taymiyya when faced with
insufficiently Islamic governance from within the Muslim world,
and toxic foreign ideological and physical incursions from
outside of the Muslim world. These thought-leaders, cherry-
43
03
EXPERT
CONTRIBUTIONS
CONCLUSION
The death of the 21st centurys first super-empowered
individual, Usama bin Ladin, lead to broad reflection about the
viability of his organization and its place in a changing political
landscape. Underscoring al-Qaidas failure to generate
widespread support for both the ends (severing of ties between
the West and the Muslim world and reestablishment of the
caliphate) and means (violence) of its campaign, protestors
acted largely peaceably and entirely within the parameters of
the international system that al-Qaida sought to overthrow.
Control of the nation-state, not its dissolution, remained the
prize of popular protests even for the Islamist political parties
that have benefited from the instability.
Within the context of this political turmoil, extant violent groups
persist and some have found new safe-haven. While many
coalesced around a local agenda without any impetus from the
al-Qaida organization, al-Qaidas long-running propagation of
global jihadism and its vilification of the West has influenced
these militant organizations to varying degrees. As a result,
in contested regions far from al-Qaidas geographic center of
gravity, violence targeting both local Muslim populations and
far-enemy targets persists. Making this mix of violence more
difficult to disentangle, it often occurs in places where antiAmerican sentiment is paramount creating the very real risk that
American audiences will conflate the two.
It is essential, therefore, that policy-makers understand the
differing motivations and goals among violent and non-violent
Islamist actors in a given region. Many of these actors choose
to act within the international system with the goal of winning
a seat at the table. Others act outside of the system in the
medium term, but for the same prize; the ability to govern
within the international system. Foreign policy should endeavor
to influence the behaviors of these organizations with the
understanding that Western nation states retain the advantage
in this arena, even if policy options are less attractive than prior
to the Arab Spring. There is a new political reality at play.
44
03
EXPERT
CONTRIBUTIONS
45
03
EXPERT
CONTRIBUTIONS
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT
AND TERRORISM
Professor Raul Caruso
46
03
EXPERT
CONTRIBUTIONS
POLICY RESPONSES
As noted above, the latent idea of this brief report is that
terrorism is the dark side of political mobilization. That is, in
some cases terrorism is based on some social dissent that has
no representation within a polity. Needless to say, there is a
clear-cut empirical evidence that less democratic states are
natural laboratories for political violence and terrorism. Under
the belief that political dissent has to be channeled into the
realm of a proper political competition, the question is how to
make the groups not prone to violence. The simple answer
would be that securing citizens with access decision-making
processes. Put differently, reforming representative institutions
becomes for many states an issue that cannot be delayed
anymore. In other words, expanding the domain of democracy
would be the natural strategy to be pursued. Consequently,
further democratization would severely reduce terrorism and
political violence. However, the question on what is the best
strategy to stimulate democracy remains unsolved. Moreover,
this exceeds the scope of this brief paper. What it is clear,
however, is that muscular and repressive policies have proved
to be unsuccessful in many respects. They can inflame and not
weaken the terrorist threat.
REFERENCES
Bloom, M. (2004). Palestinian suicide bombing: public support,
market share and outbidding. Political Science Quarterly, 119,
61-88.
Caruso R., Gavrilova E., (2012), Youth Unemployment and
Political Violence, Evidence from Israeli/Palestinian Conflict
(1997-2007), Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public
Policy, vol.18,n.2, art. 2
Caruso R., Schneider F., (2011), The Socio-Economic
determinants of terrorism and political violence in Western
Europe (1994-2007). European Journal of Political Economy.
Vol.27, S1, s37-s49
Caruso R., Schneider F., (2012) Brutality of Jihadist Terrorism. A
contest theory perspective and empirical evidence in
the period 2002-2010, wp, available at http://works.bepress.
com/raul_caruso/47/
Della Porta, D. (1995). Social movements, political violence and
the state, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Sandler, T., Tschirhart, J.T., & Cauley, J. (1983). A Theoretical
analysis of Transnational Terrorism. The American Political
Science Review, 77, 36-54.
47
04
APPENDIX
Injuries
Rank
Score
Incidents
Fatalities
1798
4905
660
Mali
43
3.39
910
1468
2459
458
Niger
44
3.27
Afghanistan
8.67
364
1293
1882
131
Spain
45
3.09
India
8.15
529
402
667
184
Chad
46
3.01
Yemen
7.3
113
454
415
44
Kazakhstan
47
2.8
Somalia
7.24
175
294
493
35
Saudi Arabia
48
2.71
15
Nigeria
7.24
168
437
614
33
Qatar
49
2.68
Thailand
7.09
173
142
427
59
Chile
50
2.64
Russia
7.07
182
159
431
66
Cameroon
51
2.63
Philippines
10
6.8
125
120
213
53
Peru
52
2.49
Sudan
11
6.3
34
183
117
Tunisia
53
2.36
12
6.18
14
47
Mauritania
54
2.18
Colombia
13
6.06
80
32
68
30
Paraguay
55
2.17
Syria
14
5.86
45
149
195
Ukraine
56
2.16
Algeria
15
5.83
15
25
34
Italy
57
2.07
Sri Lanka
16
5.68
Netherlands
58
2.04
Iran
17
5.63
14
18
13
Tajikistan
59
2.02
Kenya
18
5.27
40
40
111
Mexico
60
2.01
Turkey
19
5.24
50
25
110
23
Sweden
61
1.76
Israel
20
5.15
48
21
77
33
Germany
62
1.74
Norway
21
5.03
75
75
France
63
1.73
Nepal
22
5.02
29
73
14
Australia
64
1.72
China
23
4.99
19
32
Angola
65
1.7
Burundi
24
4.9
47
30
Venezuela
66
1.62
25
4.84
35
Argentina
67
1.47
Greece
26
4.6
10
Ireland
68
1.46
Egypt
27
4.58
16
26
107
Austria
69
1.41
United Kingdom
28
4.51
46
19
70
1.37
Indonesia
29
4.51
21
20
70
Zimbabwe
71
1.36
Uganda
30
4.49
Bhutan
72
1.23
Lebanon
31
4.48
10
23
Honduras
73
1.23
Belarus
32
4.26
13
161
Canada
74
1.18
Myanmar
33
4.09
Switzerland
75
1.17
Cote D'ivoire
34
3.99
23
Serbia
76
1.17
Eritrea
35
3.92
17
Denmark
77
1.13
Senegal
36
3.86
21
Portugal
77
1.13
Ethiopia
37
3.73
Moldova
79
0.99
Rwanda
38
3.73
49
Guyana
80
0.98
Bangladesh
39
3.67
Azerbaijan
81
0.87
Morocco
40
3.6
17
24
Bulgaria
82
0.74
United States
41
3.57
Ecuador
83
0.68
Georgia
42
3.43
Macedonia (FYR)
84
0.62
48
Property
Damage
Fatalities
1228
9.05
Country
Injuries
Incidents
9.56
Property
Damage
Score
Pakistan
Rank
Iraq
Country
04
APPENDIX
Montenegro
116
Namibia
116
Uzbekistan
86
0.58
Nicaragua
116
Czech Republic
88
0.52
Panama
116
Madagascar
89
0.43
Poland
116
Bolivia
90
0.42
Sierra Leone
116
Malaysia
90
0.42
Slovakia
116
Kyrgyzstan
92
0.4
116
Libya
93
0.35
Turkmenistan
116
Hungary
94
0.28
Uruguay
116
Equatorial Guinea
95
0.22
Vietnam
116
Mozambique
96
0.2
Zambia
116
Armenia
97
0.19
Burkina Faso
116
Estonia
98
0.16
Botswana
116
Guinea-bissau
98
0.16
Costa Rica
116
Kuwait
98
0.16
Cuba
116
Albania
101
0.12
Dominican Republic
116
Cambodia
101
0.12
Gabon
116
Tanzania
101
0.12
Ghana
116
New Zealand
104
0.08
Iceland
116
104
0.08
Jamaica
116
116
Property
Damage
Fatalities
Injuries
Incidents
Score
Fatalities
0.58
Country
Rank
Incidents
0.62
86
Property
Damage
Score
85
Jordan
Injuries
Rank
Bahrain
Country
Haiti
106
0.07
Lithuania
Belgium
107
0.07
Mongolia
116
Finland
107
0.07
Mauritius
116
Japan
109
0.06
Malawi
116
Swaziland
109
0.06
Oman
116
South Africa
111
0.05
North Korea
116
Cyprus
112
0.05
Romania
116
Lesotho
113
0.04
Singapore
116
Benin
114
0.03
El Salvador
116
115
0.01
Slovenia
116
Brazil
116
Taiwan
116
Congo, Rep.
116
Croatia
116
Djibouti
116
Gambia
116
Guatemala
116
Guinea
116
South Korea
116
Laos
116
Latvia
116
Liberia
116
49
04
APPENDIX
City
Organisation
Injuries
Country
Nepal
21/3/2004
Bedi
518
216
Spain
3/11/2004
Madrid
191
1800
Russia
9/01/2004
Beslan
344
727
Firearms
Iraq
30/3/2007
Tal Afar
Unknown
290
340
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
India
7/12/2006
Mumbai
Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)
187
817
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
Nigeria
27/7/2009
Maiduguri
Boko Haram
304
Iraq
25/10/2009
Baghdad
Indonesia
10/12/2002
Kuta
Iraq
14/9/2005
10
Iraq
11
Iraq
12
Iraq
15/8/2007
13
India
26/11/2008
Mumbai
Deccan Mujahideen
183
252
Firearms
14
Iraq
12/08/2009
Baghdad
Al-Qaida in Iraq
132
500
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
15
Iraq
27/3/2007
Tal Afar
Unknown
153
351
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
16
Afghanistan
5/12/2006
Herat
Taliban
206
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
17
Iraq
16/8/2007
Mosul
Unknown
200
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
18
Iraq
19/8/2009
Baghdad
104
568
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
19
United Kingdom
7/07/2005
London
56
784
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
20
Iraq
7/07/2007
Amerli
Unknown
150
250
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
21
China
7/05/2009
Urumqi
Unknown
184
22
Pakistan
18/10/2007
Karachi
Harkatul Jihad-e-Islami
141
250
23
Nepal
4/11/2002
Sadbariya
Unknown
170
24
Iraq
2/03/2007
Baghdad
Unknown
120
246
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
25
Iraq
18/4/2007
Baghdad
Al-Qaida in Iraq
132
156
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
26
Iraq
12/12/2006
Baghdad
Unknown
107
296
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
27
Pakistan
28/10/2009
Peshawar
Taliban
120
200
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
28
Iraq
3/02/2004
Karbala
110
233
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
29
Iraq
2/01/2004
Irbil
Unknown
100
267
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
30
Nepal
5/07/2002
Gama
Maoists
140
Unknown
31
India
28/5/2010
Midnapore
115
140
Unknown
32
Sudan
5/10/2008
Omdurman
134
33
Iraq
29/8/2003
Najaf
34
Colombia
5/02/2002
Bojaya
35
Russia
23/10/2002
Yuzhnoportovy
36
Pakistan
7/09/2010
Mohmand
37
Iraq
3/06/2007
Al Hillah
38
Iraq
22/1/2007
Baghdad
39
Iraq
3/11/2007
Baghdad
40
Iraq
20/6/2009
Taza Khurmatu
41
Yemen
28/3/2011
Ja'ar
42
Afghanistan
17/2/2008
Kandahar
43
Philippines
27/2/2004
Manila
44
Iraq
7/07/2010
Baghdad
45
Pakistan
1/01/2010
Bannu
Taliban
46
Pakistan
15/9/2011
Dir
Taliban
47
Iraq
19/6/2007
Baghdad
48
Iraq
2/01/2008
Baghdad
49
Egypt
23/7/2005
Sharm el-Sheikh
50
Iraq
18/7/2007
Kirkuk
50
Date
Fatalities
Rank
Weapon Type
Firearms
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
Unknown
153
720
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
202
300
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
Baghdad
Al-Qaida in Iraq
160
542
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
23/11/2006
Baghdad
Unknown
202
257
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
12/03/2006
Baghdad
Unknown
183
278
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
Kahtaniyah
Unknown
200
170
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
Melee
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
Firearms
Firearms
100
200
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
119
80
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
129
106
115
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
92
200
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
Unknown
93
175
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
Unknown
Firearms
103
104
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
83
211
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
110
45
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
Taliban
101
100
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
116
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
55
340
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
100
87
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
93
122
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
Unknown
79
200
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
Al-Qaida in Iraq
90
130
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
91
110
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
Unknown
80
183
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
Al-Qaida in Iraq
04
APPENDIX
City
Organisation
Injuries
Date
Fatalities
Rank
Country
51
Iraq
5/01/2008
Balad Ruz
Al-Qaida in Iraq
81
141
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
52
Pakistan
13/5/2011
Charsadda
82
140
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
53
Iraq
3/12/2006
Baghdad
Unknown
62
250
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
54
Pakistan
7/10/2007
Islamabad
Other
96
35
Firearms
55
8/06/2009
Niangara
100
Unknown
56
Sri Lanka
8/05/2006
Muttur
100
Firearms
57
Pakistan
28/5/2010
Lahore
82
92
Firearms
58
Iraq
12/02/2006
Baghdad
Unknown
77
125
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
59
Iraq
24/6/2004
Mosul
60
220
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
60
Iraq
17/8/2010
Baghdad
Unknown
68
169
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
61
Iraq
2/10/2004
Al-Iskandariyah
71
150
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
62
Pakistan
20/9/2008
Islamabad
60
200
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
63
Algeria
12/11/2007
Algiers
77
100
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
64
Iraq
30/3/2007
Baghdad
Unknown
72
130
Firearms
65
Iraq
18/11/2005
Khanaqin
Unknown
77
90
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
66
Iraq
7/01/2006
Baghdad
Sunni Supporters
77
96
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
67
Sri Lanka
14/8/2006
Colombo
68
150
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
68
Iraq
21/4/2004
Basra
74
100
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
69
Russia
5/12/2003
Znamenskoye
Chechen Rebels
59
197
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
70
Iraq
2/12/2007
Baghdad
Unknown
66
150
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
71
Pakistan
9/03/2010
Quetta
66
150
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
72
Iraq
4/07/2006
Baghdad
Al-Qaida in Iraq
90
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
73
5/09/2009
Busurungi
86
24
74
26/12/2008
Doroma
89
75
Pakistan
21/12/2007
Charsadda
Unknown
72
101
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
76
Uganda
7/11/2010
Kampala
Al-Shabaab
75
71
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
77
Iraq
8/07/2009
Shirakhan
Unknown
40
276
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
78
Iraq
24/4/2009
Baghdad
Unknown
66
127
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
79
Iraq
18/1/2011
Tikrit
Al-Qaida in Iraq
61
150
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
80
Iraq
3/02/2004
Baghdad
58
167
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
81
Iraq
5/04/2005
Arbil
Ansar al-Sunna
60
150
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
82
Pakistan
18/2/2010
Khyber district
Unknown
59
150
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
83
Iraq
29/3/2011
Tikrit
Al-Qaida in Iraq
68
95
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
84
Pakistan
27/3/2009
Jamrud sub
57
158
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
85
Iraq
19/12/2004
Najaf
Unknown
62
130
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
86
Afghanistan
7/07/2008
Kabul
Haqqani Network
58
141
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
87
India
4/06/2010
Dantewada
82
88
Iraq
2/01/2007
Hilla
Unknown
57
150
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
89
Iraq
18/7/2006
Kufa
59
132
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
90
India
29/10/2005
New Delhi
Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)
55
155
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
91
Iraq
28/7/2004
Baqouba
70
56
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
92
Pakistan
21/8/2008
Islamabad
64
100
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
93
Sudan
20/11/2006
Umm Bayi
Unknown
80
Firearms
94
Sudan
11/11/2006
Muhajiriyah
Unknown
80
Firearms
95
Iraq
12/05/2006
Baghdad
Unknown
61
114
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
96
Afghanistan
11/06/2007
Baghlan
Unknown
64
95
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
97
Nigeria
11/04/2011
Damaturu
Boko Haram
63
100
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
98
Iran
15/7/2010
Zahedan
Jundallah
28
300
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
99
Norway
22/7/2011
Utoya
Individual
68
60
Firearms
100
Somalia
10/04/2011
Mogadishu
71
42
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite
Al-Shabaab
Weapon Type
Melee
Firearms
Firearms
51
04
APPENDIX
Code
Country
Code
Country
Code
Country
Code
Afghanistan
AFG
Algeria
DZA
Kuwait
KWT
Paraguay
PRY
Angola
AGO
Ecuador
ECU
Laos
LAO
Qatar
QAT
Albania
ALB
Egypt
EGY
Lebanon
LBN
Romania
ROU
ARE
Eritrea
ERI
Liberia
LBR
Russia
RUS
Argentina
ARG
Spain
ESP
Libya
LBY
Rwanda
RWA
Armenia
ARM
Estonia
EST
Sri Lanka
LKA
Saudi Arabia
SAU
Australia
AUS
Ethiopia
ETH
Lesotho
LSO
Sudan
SDN
Austria
AUT
Finland
FIN
Lithuania
LTU
Senegal
SEN
Azerbaijan
AZE
France
FRA
Latvia
LVA
Singapore
SGP
Burundi
BDI
Gabon
GAB
Morocco
MAR
Sierra Leone
SLE
Belgium
BEL
United Kingdom
GBR
Moldova
MDA
El Salvador
SLV
Benin
BEN
Georgia
GEO
Madagascar
MDG
Somalia
SOM
Burkina Faso
BFA
Ghana
GHA
Mexico
MEX
Serbia
SRB
Bangladesh
BGD
Guinea
GIN
Macedonia (FYR)
MKD
Slovakia
SVK
Bulgaria
BGR
The Gambia
GMB
Mali
MLI
Slovenia
SVN
Bahrain
BHR
Guinea-Bissau
GNB
Myanmar
MMR
Sweden
SWE
BIH
Equatorial Guinea
GNQ
Montenegro
MNE
Swaziland
SWZ
Belarus
BLR
Greece
GRC
Mongolia
MNG
Syria
SYR
Bolivia
BOL
Guatemala
GTM
Mozambique
MOZ
Chad
TCD
Brazil
BRA
Guyana
GUY
Mauritania
MRT
Thailand
THA
Bhutan
BTN
Honduras
HND
Mauritius
MUS
Tajikistan
TJK
Botswana
BWA
Croatia
HRV
Malawi
MWI
Turkmenistan
TKM
CAF
Haiti
HTI
Malaysia
MYS
TTO
Canada
CAN
Hungary
HUN
Namibia
NAM
Tunisia
TUN
Switzerland
CHE
Indonesia
IDN
Niger
NER
Turkey
TUR
Chile
CHL
India
IND
Nigeria
NGA
Taiwan
TWN
China
CHN
Ireland
IRL
Nicaragua
NIC
Tanzania
TZA
CIV
Iran
IRN
Netherlands
NLD
Uganda
UGA
Cameroon
CMR
Iraq
IRQ
Norway
NOR
Ukraine
UKR
COD
Iceland
ISL
Nepal
NPL
Uruguay
URY
Congo, Republic of
COG
Israel
ISR
New Zealand
NZL
USA
Colombia
COL
Italy
ITA
Oman
OMN
Uzbekistan
UZB
Costa Rica
CRI
Jamaica
JAM
Pakistan
PAK
Venezuela
VEN
Cuba
CUB
Jordan
JOR
Panama
PAN
Vietnam
VNM
Cyprus
CYP
Japan
JPN
Peru
PER
Yemen
YEM
Czech Republic
CZE
Kazakhstan
KAZ
Philippines
PHL
South Africa
ZAF
Germany
DEU
Kenya
KEN
PNG
Zambia
ZMB
Djibouti
DJI
Kyrgyz Republic
KGZ
Poland
POL
Zimbabwe
ZWE
Denmark
DNK
Cambodia
KHM
North Korea
PRK
Dominican Republic
DOM
South Korea
KOR
Portugal
PRT
52
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APPENDIX
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04
APPENDIX
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APPENDIX
55
GlobalPeaceIndex
@GlobPeaceIndex
IEP REPORT 19
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