Activul fr risc ?
- T-bills
T-bills sunt de obicei considerate ca fiind active fr risc;
Fondurile monetare fonduri care investesc n activele fr risc; este
modalitatea prin care investitorii individuali pot avea acces la activele
fr risc
Activul riscant?
P=yR
0%
7%= 1*7%+0*15%
0=0*22%
20%
8.6%= 0.8*7%+0.2*15%
4.4%=0.2*22%
50%
11%= 0.5*7%+0.5*15%
11%=0.5*22%
90%
14.2%=0.1*7%+0.9*15%
19.8%=0.9*22%
100% 15%=0*7%+1*15%
22%=1*22%
150% 19%=(1-1.5)*7%+1.5*15%
33%=1.5*22%
Slide 6-2
E(rP)
R
E(rR) = 15%
E(rP) = 11%
RF
rf = 7%
Leverage
(prin ndatorare
Lum cu mprumut
la risk free i
investim totul
Fr ndatorare n activul riscant)
22%
P
Slide 6-3
E ( RP ) rf
P
E(rR)=15%
rf = 7%
) S = 8/22
E ( RR ) rf
E(rR) -rf = 8%
F
R = 22%
P
Slide 6-4
)
E(rM)
E(rR) -rf
rf
E (rP ) rf
E ( RM ) rf
F
0
Slide 6-5
E(r)
P
15%
9%
7%
) S = .36
) S = .27
Nu mai avem o
linie dreapta!
R = 22%
Slide 6-6
A=2
E(r)
E(rR)=15%
rf=7%
R = 22%
Slide 6-7
Slide 6-8
E(r)
E(rR)=15%
rf=7%
= 22%
Slide 6-9
} max
Mr. Smith
optim
E ( RR ) rf
A R2
0.15 0.07
3 0.222
y* 55.10%
y*optim
Mr. Jones
0.15 0.07
1 0.222
y* 165.29%
y*optim
Slide 6-10
y=55.10%
Mr. Jones :
E(Rs)=11.41% s=12.12%
y= 165.29%
E(RJ)=20.22% J=36.36%
E(r)
15%
7%
R
Cel care mprumut
Cel care d cu mprumut
22%
Slide 6-11
exemplu:
15.80%
15.00%
14.20%
13.40%
12.60%
11.80%
11.00%
10.20%
9.40%
8.60%
7.80%
E(Rp)
7.00%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
R < in
2.25% of
cases
R > in
2.25% of
cases
different com binations of the risk- free asset & a risky asset
10
11
12
rP w1 r1 w2 r2
w1
w2
r1
r2
i 1
Slide 6-13
2
1
2
1
p w
w2 2 2w1w2Cov(r1, r2)
Slide 6-14
activului 1
2 = deviaia standard a randamentelor
activului 2
1,2 = Coeficientul de corelaie pentru cele
dou randamente
+ 1.0 >
> -1.0
Slide 6-15
2
2
1
1
i w1+w2=1
2
1
p w
w2 2 2w1w2Cov(r1, r2)
Slide 6-16
rate of return
sif banat
sif oltenia
3.94%
0.87%
7.63%
12.75%
6.31%
7.37%
2.78%
3.26%
-1.82%
-4.17%
3.77%
3.23%
1.92%
3.33%
8.33%
1.12%
-10.28%
-7.29%
2.88%
4.35%
mean return
2.55%
2.6%
Rp
2.5%
sif
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
1-x
0
1
banat0.1crisana0.9
0.2
0.8
0.3
0.7
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.7
0.3
0.8
0.2
0.9
0.1
2.5%
2.48%
2.5%
variance (%)^2
26.1011
27.8749
vol / std.dev %
2.5%
5.11
covariance (%)^2
21.5990
0.8008
0 0.02546427
sif oltenia
5.28
correlation
Rp
0.02481618
0.02488099
0.0249458
0.02501061
0.02507542
0.02514022
0.02520503
0.02526984
0.02533465
0.02539946
2.5%
24
25
26
27
28
risc
29
Slide 6-17
2
p
dx
x*
*
2 1 2
x 2
1 22 21 2
2x(12 22 21 2) 2(ij 2j ) 0
27.8749 21.5990
0,5822
26,1011 27.8749 2 21,5990
2.6%
E(Rp)
2.5%
EPDM 2.52%
PDM 24,2205%
2.5%
PDM
Rp
2.5%
2.5%
risc
2.5%
24
25
26
27
28
Slide 6-18
= -1
= .3
PDM=0.3
=1
%8
12%
20%
Dev St.
Slide 6-19
2
1
2
1
p w
i 1
w2 2 w3 3
2w1w2Cov(r1 , r2 )
2w1w3Cov(r1 , r3 )
2w2w3Cov(r2 , r3 )
Slide 6-20
rp
i 1
p
2
ri
i 1
w
i 1
2 w jwkCov(rj , rk )
2 2
i
i
j,k 1
jk
w w
j
jk
j,k 1
Slide 6-21
RISC
Risc
specific/unic/diversificabil
Companie
Sector
Risc
sistematic/nediversificabil
Pia
.14
.12
vol1=.22
vol2=.15
vol3=0.05
RNORF
.10
.08
rho12=0.5
rho13=0.05
rho23= -0.1
.06
.04
.02
.00
.05
.10
.15
VOLNORF
.20
.25
Combinaii aleatoare cu
cele 3 active
Slide 6-23
Active
individuale
Frontiera
Slide 6-24
Slide 6-25
.8
.14
.6
.12
RP
RP
.4
.10
.2
.08
.06
.0
.04
-.2
.02
-.4
.00
.050.3 0.4 .10
.150.8 0.9 .20
.25
0.0 0.1 0.2
0.5 0.6 0.7
1.0 1.1 1.2
Combinaii aleatoare cu
4 active unde al 4-lea
activ este activul fr
risc
VOLP
VOLP
Slide 6-26
E(r)
CAL (P)
M
M
P
P
A
CAL (A)
CAL (dispersie
global minim)
A
G
F
P
P&F M
Slide 6-27
Slide 6-28
E(r)
U3
P
Q
Aversiune la
risc
ridicat
U2 U1
Frontiera
eficient a
S
activelor
riscante
Aversiune
Redus la
risc
Slide 6-29
CAL/CML ?
B
Q
M
P
A
rf
F
Slide 6-30