The following table gives the baseline cost and time estimates (BCE and BTE),
the cost and time estimates to correct for failure, and the likelihood of failure for
each work package in Largesse.
wes Corrective
Element BCE __BTE (weeks) Cost Time Likelihood
L $20,000 9 $4,000 2 02
v 16,000 4,000, 2 03,
T 32,000 8,000 2 0
U 20,000 7 12,000 3 02
8 16,000 3 44,000 1 03
J 18,000 3 4,000 1 O01
R 10,000 4 4,000 3 03
c 15,000 6 5,000 2 03
Determine the risk time and risk cost for all the WBS elements of the
project.
What is the project expected cost (EC) and expected time (ET)?Corecast Contractors has been requested by a municipality to submit a proposal
bid fora parking garage contract. In the past, the cost of preparing bids has been
about 2 percent of the cost of the job, Corecast project manager Bradford Pitts
is considering three possible bids: cost plus 10 percent, cost plus 20 percent,
and cost plus 30 percent. Of course, increasing the “plus percent” increases the
project price, decreasing the likelihood of winning the job. Bradford estimates
the likelihood of winning the job as follows
Bid price PQwin) —_P(lose)
Pl C+01C=11C 0.6 O04
P2 C+02C 2c O4 0.6
P3 C+03C
3C 0.2 08
Inall cases, the profit (if the bid is won) will be the bid price minus the pro-
posal-preparation cost, or 0.02C; the loss (if the bid is not won) will be the pro-
posal-preparation cost.
Prepare a decision tree for the three options. If Bradford uses the maximum
expected profit as the criterion, which bid proposal would he select?