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The following table gives the baseline cost and time estimates (BCE and BTE), the cost and time estimates to correct for failure, and the likelihood of failure for each work package in Largesse. wes Corrective Element BCE __BTE (weeks) Cost Time Likelihood L $20,000 9 $4,000 2 02 v 16,000 4,000, 2 03, T 32,000 8,000 2 0 U 20,000 7 12,000 3 02 8 16,000 3 44,000 1 03 J 18,000 3 4,000 1 O01 R 10,000 4 4,000 3 03 c 15,000 6 5,000 2 03 Determine the risk time and risk cost for all the WBS elements of the project. What is the project expected cost (EC) and expected time (ET)? Corecast Contractors has been requested by a municipality to submit a proposal bid fora parking garage contract. In the past, the cost of preparing bids has been about 2 percent of the cost of the job, Corecast project manager Bradford Pitts is considering three possible bids: cost plus 10 percent, cost plus 20 percent, and cost plus 30 percent. Of course, increasing the “plus percent” increases the project price, decreasing the likelihood of winning the job. Bradford estimates the likelihood of winning the job as follows Bid price PQwin) —_P(lose) Pl C+01C=11C 0.6 O04 P2 C+02C 2c O4 0.6 P3 C+03C 3C 0.2 08 Inall cases, the profit (if the bid is won) will be the bid price minus the pro- posal-preparation cost, or 0.02C; the loss (if the bid is not won) will be the pro- posal-preparation cost. Prepare a decision tree for the three options. If Bradford uses the maximum expected profit as the criterion, which bid proposal would he select?

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