Chile Desempeo y Perspectivas de la Economa en 2015

por Eduardo Petazze

30/03/15
El Banco Central de Chile ha publicado su Informe de Poltica Monetaria de marzo del 2015 (pdf, 46 pginas), proyectando un crecimiento para el ao 2015 de entre 2.5%
al 3.5%, por debajo del crecimiento potencial de la economa del orden del 4% anual.
En la siguiente proyeccin se han adoptado algunos supuestos alternativos a los utilizados por el Banco Central, ms pesimistas, arrojando un crecimiento real del Producto
Interno Bruto del 2.15% en 2015 y del 2.00% en 2016.
El siguiente es el resumen de las proyecciones de la cuenta de oferta y demanda del PIB.
2013
2014
2015
2016
Billions of chained 2008 pesos
2,789.0
2,799.0
2,846.5
2,885.8 Agriculture and forestry
428.3
507.9
536.5
569.7 Fishing
13,775.5 13,960.4 14,432.5 14,790.5 Mining
11,621.7 11,585.0 11,494.1 11,455.9 Manufacturing
4,097.7
4,300.4
4,621.5
4,886.7 Electricity , gas and water
7,902.1
8,023.2
7,155.1
6,545.5 Construction
11,071.5 11,130.9 11,325.3 11,477.7 Trade
1,561.7
1,573.8
1,559.8
1,559.4 Restaurants and hotels
5,365.7
5,490.5
5,624.8
5,754.6 Transport
2,701.3
2,880.4
3,059.6
3,236.9 Communications
7,070.2
7,281.0
7,532.7
7,776.4 Financial Services
14,246.2 14,516.1 14,774.4 15,020.7 Business Services
5,153.8
5,243.1
5,333.0
5,423.2 Housing services
12,144.3 12,621.4 13,143.0 13,673.7 Personal Services
4,515.3
4,677.5
4,861.9
5,045.4 Public Administration
-719.3
-796.6
-159.0
285.8 Residual
103,725.1 105,794.0 108,141.7 110,387.8
GVA
9,950.7 10,071.1 10,240.2 10,386.9 Value added tax
660.5
623.6
600.7
576.0 Import duties
-75.6
-63.9
-55.4
-45.8 Residual
114,260.7 116,424.8 118,927.1 121,304.9
GDP
2013
2014
2015
2016
Billions of chained 2008 pesos
76,713.6 78,388.1 80,291.6 82,072.5 Private Consumption
13,215.8 13,800.6 14,399.2 15,010.0 Government Consumption
29,818.1 27,996.6 26,734.9 25,374.4 Gross fixed capital formation
41,544.3 41,817.7 38,768.7 36,318.6 Exports of goods and services
48,247.9 44,870.8 39,375.2 33,992.1 Imports of goods and services
-183.2 -1,707.3 -1,892.1 -3,478.4 Residual amd inventories change
114,260.7 116,424.8 118,927.1 121,304.9
GDP, NSA
Latest data
Own estimate
2013
2014
2015
2016
YoY
2.68%
0.36%
1.69%
1.38% Agriculture and forestry
-16.00%
18.61%
5.62%
6.19% Fishing
5.88%
1.34%
3.38%
2.48% Mining
1.05%
-0.32%
-0.78%
-0.33% Manufacturing
9.77%
4.95%
7.47%
5.74% Electricity , gas and water
3.90%
1.53% -10.82%
-8.52% Construction
6.74%
0.54%
1.75%
1.35% Trade
3.06%
0.77%
-0.89%
-0.02% Restaurants and hotels
4.13%
2.33%
2.45%
2.31% Transport
7.71%
6.63%
6.22%
5.79% Communications
6.10%
2.98%
3.46%
3.23% Financial Services
2.61%
1.89%
1.78%
1.67% Business Services
1.77%
1.73%
1.71%
1.69% Housing services
4.88%
3.93%
4.13%
4.04% Personal Services
3.84%
3.59%
3.94%
3.77% Public Administration
4.15%
1.99%
2.22%
2.08%
GVA
5.67%
1.21%
1.68%
1.43% Value added tax
-4.49%
-5.59%
-3.67%
-4.11% Import duties
4.23%
1.89%
2.15%
2.00%
GDP
2013
2014
2015
2016
YoY
5.86%
2.18%
2.43%
2.22% Private Consumption
3.38%
4.42%
4.34%
4.24% Government Consumption
2.13%
-6.11%
-4.51%
-5.09% Gross fixed capital formation
3.37%
0.66%
-7.29%
-6.32% Exports of goods and services
1.73%
-7.00% -12.25% -13.67% Imports of goods and services
4.23%
1.89%
2.15%
2.00%
GDP
Latest data
Own estimate

2014Q1
1,167.1
123.4
3,366.2
2,957.1
990.1
2,034.7
2,570.2
384.0
1,370.8
698.2
1,772.5
3,644.2
1,302.0
2,492.0
1,168.9
-131.5
25,909.8
2,411.3
172.2
-14.4
28,478.8
2014Q1
18,739.3
2,724.4
7,039.8
10,418.3
10,902.4
271.9
28,478.8

2014Q2
628.1
167.6
3,475.5
2,867.4
1,051.4
1,990.3
2,747.6
384.9
1,339.2
717.5
1,799.3
3,611.4
1,307.9
3,311.6
1,149.1
-187.8
26,361.0
2,444.0
136.6
-8.3
28,933.3
2014Q2
19,184.2
3,527.0
6,953.3
10,744.8
11,028.8
-628.9
28,933.3

2014Q3
401.6
123.8
3,451.3
2,833.3
1,067.8
1,920.7
2,738.9
395.0
1,322.9
713.3
1,815.0
3,481.3
1,313.7
3,396.6
1,176.8
-207.5
25,944.7
2,475.9
153.6
-16.2
28,557.9
2014Q3
19,682.0
3,457.1
6,596.1
10,022.2
11,202.2
-627.9
28,557.9

2014Q4
602.3
93.1
3,667.3
2,927.2
1,191.2
2,077.5
3,074.1
409.9
1,457.6
751.4
1,894.2
3,779.1
1,319.6
3,421.2
1,182.8
-269.8
27,578.6
2,739.9
161.2
-25.0
30,454.8
2014Q4
20,782.6
4,092.1
7,407.4
10,632.4
11,737.3
-722.4
30,454.8

2015Q1
1,183.6
128.2
3,541.3
2,919.1
1,132.1
1,647.2
2,666.6
367.6
1,402.4
742.1
1,835.1
3,701.0
1,324.8
2,609.0
1,217.6
56.4
26,474.2
2,444.1
165.8
-11.7
29,072.3
2015Q1
19,148.3
2,837.8
6,767.7
9,788.7
9,843.2
373.1
29,072.3

2015Q2
646.1
171.0
3,580.1
2,843.3
1,117.7
1,871.5
2,776.2
383.9
1,372.8
762.2
1,867.0
3,676.6
1,330.3
3,455.0
1,196.9
-91.8
26,958.9
2,491.5
135.8
-7.5
29,578.7
2015Q2
19,686.0
3,702.1
6,643.9
10,092.9
9,820.1
-726.1
29,578.7

2015Q3
411.9
133.5
3,560.4
2,785.4
1,134.6
1,744.0
2,777.6
394.9
1,358.8
758.0
1,878.3
3,549.9
1,336.0
3,527.8
1,223.6
-34.7
26,540.0
2,523.5
148.1
-13.8
29,197.8
2015Q3
20,172.8
3,617.9
6,353.3
9,192.0
9,734.3
-403.9
29,197.8

2015Q4
604.8
103.8
3,750.6
2,946.3
1,237.1
1,892.4
3,104.9
413.3
1,490.8
797.3
1,952.3
3,846.9
1,341.9
3,551.2
1,223.8
-88.8
28,168.6
2,781.0
151.0
-22.3
31,078.3
2015Q4
21,284.4
4,241.4
6,970.1
9,695.2
9,977.6
-1,135.3
31,078.3

2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

2.93% -5.60% -3.42%
4.94%
1.41%
2.87%
2.58%
0.42%
21.75% 34.03% 10.72%
3.45%
3.92%
2.05%
7.77% 11.42%
1.19%
4.83% -0.00% -0.40%
5.20%
3.01%
3.16%
2.27%
0.17% -0.68% -0.67% -0.11% -1.29% -0.84% -1.69%
0.65%
1.35%
9.39%
3.42%
5.68% 14.35%
6.31%
6.26%
3.85%
3.15%
1.14% -1.41%
3.18% -19.05% -5.97% -9.20% -8.91%
2.22% -0.43% -0.24%
0.73%
3.75%
1.04%
1.41%
1.00%
0.97%
0.25%
0.94%
0.92% -4.26% -0.26% -0.02%
0.84%
3.44%
1.45%
1.28%
3.06%
2.31%
2.51%
2.71%
2.28%
7.63%
7.49%
5.72%
5.77%
6.28%
6.23%
6.27%
6.11%
3.90%
2.22%
2.16%
3.65%
3.54%
3.76%
3.49%
3.07%
3.42%
2.05%
1.24%
0.91%
1.56%
1.80%
1.97%
1.79%
1.62%
1.72%
1.78%
1.81%
1.75%
1.72%
1.70%
1.69%
3.40%
3.65%
4.61%
3.91%
4.70%
4.33%
3.86%
3.80%
3.31%
3.03%
2.68%
5.37%
4.17%
4.16%
3.98%
3.47%
2.63%
2.26%
1.18%
1.93%
2.18%
2.27%
2.29%
2.14%
3.84%
0.71% -0.18%
0.68%
1.36%
1.95%
1.92%
1.50%
-2.41% -10.33% -11.66%
2.10% -3.71% -0.59% -3.57% -6.32%
2.70%
2.08%
1.00%
1.82%
2.08%
2.23%
2.24%
2.05%
2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4
3.91%
2.15%
1.89%
0.97%
2.18%
2.62%
2.49%
2.41%
8.22%
2.57%
2.28%
5.47%
4.16%
4.97%
4.65%
3.65%
-4.87% -7.85% -12.07%
0.50% -3.86% -4.45% -3.68% -5.90%
4.15% -0.43% -2.61%
1.66% -6.04% -6.07% -8.28% -8.81%
-4.69% -9.39% -9.82% -3.92% -9.72% -10.96% -13.10% -14.99%
2.70%
2.08%
1.00%
1.82%
2.08%
2.23%
2.24%
2.05%