Michelle Larsen

Tuesday 1pm Lab

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Ebola Epidemic Estimates

There have been over three thousand confirmed cases of Ebola in West
Africa since the initial discovery of this disease in September of 2014 .
The rate the disease is spreading, it is spreading, it is predicted that
there will be 8,000 affected people in Sierra Line and Liberia alone.
While the United States is working on creating organizations that will
help stop the disease from spreading further and into other countries
and harming more people, the possibility that it will continue to spread
is unnerving. For the time being, the U.S. and other international
organizations will keep trying to prevent the disease from affecting
more people, and hopefully find a solution to this epidemic.
After the initial prediction of Ebola cases was estimated, the patients
were divided into three levels. These levels were as follows:
hospitalized in an Ebola Treatment Unit (ETU) or medical care facility;
home or in a community setting such that there is a reduced risk for
disease transmission; home with no effective isolation. Keeping in
mind that these categories are only based on the number of reported
cases, it is easy to see that many organizations are working their

hardest to keep the disease from spreading and making sure that it is
isolated, to avoid more cases from arising.
The estimated for the rising numbers of affected individuals was
calculated every ten days, but the numbers were not as accurate as
they could have been. This is because, as mentioned previously, there
was still some number of unreported cases across the Africa.
If the trends continued without any additional intervention or solutions,
the number of cases would be expected to double every thirty to forty
days. If the patients were isolated, whether at home or in and Ebola
Treatment Unit, the numbers would eventually stop rising and start
decreasing.
In conclusion, because of the predictions of the numbers of expected
Ebola cases, correct measures were able to be taken to control and
eventually prevent the outbreak of this disease. Though the capacity of
the ETUs was insufficient for every single individual affected with
Ebola, the fact that they were functioning and treating people in a
timely manner is proof that in situations involving disease epidemics,
we can all work together to prevent and cure life threatening
situations.

Works Cited
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm?
s_cid=su6303a1_w
World Health Organization. No early end to the Ebola outbreak.
Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization; 2014.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/overview-20140814/en .