METODO DE GUMBEL

AO

Q m3/sg

1981

20.90

(Qi- Qm)
16.22

1982

20.60

13.88

1983

10.93

35.37

1984

22.40

30.49

1985

17.53

1986

28.37

132.01

1987

16.11

0.59

1988

18.40

2.34

Q
m

Q
N

0.43 Qm =

16.88

2
Q
i

N 1

1989

20.39

12.32

10

1990

11.36

30.43

11

1991

13.00

15.05

12

1992

6.19

13

1993

16.00

0.76

14

1994

24.55

58.82

15

1995

11.86

25.12

20

16

1996

13.51

11.34

50

17

1997

12.74

17.13

100

18

1998

14.81

4.27

19

1999

16.90

0.00

20

2000

20.97

16.74

16.88

5.32

114.08 Qm =

5.32

Qmax = Qm - (Sq/Sn)(Yn-ln T)
50 Qmax =

33.832 m3/seg

100 Qmax =

37.300 m3/seg

Calculo de AQ
O = 1 - 1/T

O50 =

0.98

O100 =

0.99

Q =

5.705 m3/seg

Calculo de caudales de diseo:

50

Qd = 39.536

m3/seg

50

Qd = 28.127

m3/seg

1.1
4

Q
N

N 2
Qm

5.32

100

Qd = 43.005

m3/seg

100

Qd = 31.596

m3/seg

b. Los caudales maximos y minimos se usan en:

Maximos:

Proyectos de: defensas ribereas, puentes, presas

Minimos:

Proyectos de: aprovechamiento de recursos hidricos.

GUMBEL

Q
N

m3/seg

2
Q
i

N 2
Q
m

N 1

m3/seg

Yn

0.52355

1.06283

0.54854

1.16066

0.56002

1.20649

METODO DE GUMBEL
N

AO

Q m3/sg

1981

20.90

(Qi- Qm)
16.22

1982

20.60

13.88

1983

10.93

35.37

1984

22.40

30.49

1985

17.53

1986

28.37

132.01

1987

16.11

0.59

1988

18.40

2.34

Q
m

Q
N

0.43 Qm =

16.88

2
Q
i

N 1

1989

20.39

12.32

10

1990

11.36

30.43

11

1991

13.00

15.05

12

1992

6.19

13

1993

16.00

0.76

14

1994

24.55

58.82

15

1995

11.86

25.12

20

16

1996

13.51

11.34

50

17

1997

12.74

17.13

100

18

1998

14.81

4.27

19

1999

16.90

0.00

20

2000

20.97

16.74

16.88

5.32

114.08 Qm =

5.32

Qmax = Qm - (Sq/Sn)(Yn-ln T)
50 Qmax =

33.832 m3/seg

100 Qmax =

37.300 m3/seg

Calculo de AQ
O = 1 - 1/T

O50 =

0.98

O100 =

0.99

Q =

5.705 m3/seg

Calculo de caudales de diseo:

50

Qd = 39.536

m3/seg

50

Qd = 28.127

m3/seg

1.1
4

Q
N

N 2
Qm

5.32

100

Qd = 43.005

m3/seg

100

Qd = 31.596

m3/seg

b. Los caudales maximos y minimos se usan en:

Maximos:

Proyectos de: defensas ribereas, puentes, presas

Minimos:

Proyectos de: aprovechamiento de recursos hidricos.

E GUMBEL

30
28
21
25
26

m3/seg

2
Q
i

N 2
Qm

26

N 1

3.39116499
m3/seg

Yn

0.52355

1.06283

0.54854

1.16066

0.56002

1.20649

3.391164992

METODO DE NASH
1ro

Q m3/sg

T/(T-1)

20.90

21.000

1.050

-1.6738834093

20.60

10.500

1.105

-1.361853384

10.93

7.000

1.167

-1.1742702443

22.40

5.250

1.235

-1.0372975014

17.53

4.200

1.313

-0.9277526321

28.37

3.500

1.400

-0.8352664537

16.11

3.000

1.500

-0.7542622013

18.40

2.625

1.615

-0.6813608917

20.39

2.333

1.750

-0.6143257303

10

11.36

2.100

1.909

-0.5515617433

11

13.00

1.909

2.100

-0.4918484573

12

6.19

1.750

2.333

-0.434179579

13

16.00

1.615

2.625

-0.3776519699

14

24.55

1.500

3.000

-0.3213712361

15

11.86

1.400

3.500

-0.2643467815

16

13.51

1.313

4.200

-0.2053382073

17

12.74

1.235

5.250

-0.1425714245

18

14.81

1.167

7.000

-0.0730929055

19

16.90

1.105

10.500

0.0091062552

20

20.97

1.050

21.000

0.1213034904

75.553

1.013

-11.792

TOTAL

337.516

CALCULO DE Qm y Xm

2do

Qm
Xm

16.876
-0.590

CALCULO DE LOS PARAMETROS a y b

3ro

4to

b
a

-2.975
15.122

CALCULO DEL CAUDAL MAXIMO

T
Qmax

50
21.241

100
22.143

5to

CALCULO DE LAS DESVIACIONES ESTANDAR Y VARIANZA

Sxx

6to

85.222

Sqq

10748.45191

Sxq

-253.5605608

CALCULO DEL INTERVALO DE CONFIANZA

Para T

7to

50
-2.06

100
-2.36

3.929

4.673

Calculo del caudal de diseo

50

100

Qd

25.170

26.816

NASH
Q*X

Q2

X2

6=2x5

7=2^2

8=5^2

-34.9904403165

436.9667640625

2.8018856678

-28.0555415629

424.401201

1.8546446394

-12.8330123652

119.43211225

1.3789106067

-23.2332165539

501.6629380278

1.0759861065

-16.267369277

307.4470006944

0.8607249464

-23.6927505913

804.60159025

0.6976700486

-12.1485870007

259.4220266736

0.5689114683

-12.5401065316

338.72562025

0.4642526648

-12.5234395636

415.5754054444

0.377396103

-6.2652358051

129.0287741736

0.3042203566

-6.3919805758

168.8916840278

0.2419149049

-2.6896339469

38.3749275625

0.1885119068

-6.0441938948

256.1493551111

0.1426210104

-7.8880837718

602.4611158403

0.1032794714

-3.1361441288

140.7485640625

0.0698792209

-2.7736742811

182.4615613611

0.0421637794

-1.815860948

162.21843225

0.0203266111

-1.0824084736

219.2966084444

0.0053425728

0.1539366916

285.76212025 8.292388435E-005

2.5434309349

439.63605625

0.0147145368

-211.674

6233

11.213

METODO DE NASH
1ro

Q m3/sg

T/(T-1)

20.90

21.000

1.050

-1.6738834093

20.60

10.500

1.105

-1.361853384

10.93

7.000

1.167

-1.1742702443

22.40

5.250

1.235

-1.0372975014

17.53

4.200

1.313

-0.9277526321

28.37

3.500

1.400

-0.8352664537

16.11

3.000

1.500

-0.7542622013

18.40

2.625

1.615

-0.6813608917

20.39

2.333

1.750

-0.6143257303

10

11.36

2.100

1.909

-0.5515617433

11

13.00

1.909

2.100

-0.4918484573

12

6.19

1.750

2.333

-0.434179579

13

16.00

1.615

2.625

-0.3776519699

14

24.55

1.500

3.000

-0.3213712361

15

11.86

1.400

3.500

-0.2643467815

16

13.51

1.313

4.200

-0.2053382073

17

12.74

1.235

5.250

-0.1425714245

18

14.81

1.167

7.000

-0.0730929055

19

16.90

1.105

10.500

0.0091062552

20

20.97

1.050

21.000

0.1213034904

75.553

1.013

-11.792

TOTAL

337.516

CALCULO DE Qm y Xm

2do

Qm
Xm

16.876
-0.590

CALCULO DE LOS PARAMETROS a y b

3ro

4to

b
a

-2.975
15.122

CALCULO DEL CAUDAL MAXIMO

T
Qmax

50
21.241

100
22.143

5to

CALCULO DE LAS DESVIACIONES ESTANDAR Y VARIANZA

Sxx

6to

85.222

Sqq

10748.45191

Sxq

-253.5605608

CALCULO DEL INTERVALO DE CONFIANZA

Para T

7to

50
-2.06

100
-2.36

3.929

4.673

Calculo del caudal de diseo

50

100

Qd

25.170

26.816

NASH
Q*X

Q2

X2

6=2x5

7=2^2

8=5^2

-34.9904403165

436.9667640625

2.8018856678

-28.0555415629

424.401201

1.8546446394

-12.8330123652

119.43211225

1.3789106067

-23.2332165539

501.6629380278

1.0759861065

-16.267369277

307.4470006944

0.8607249464

-23.6927505913

804.60159025

0.6976700486

-12.1485870007

259.4220266736

0.5689114683

-12.5401065316

338.72562025

0.4642526648

-12.5234395636

415.5754054444

0.377396103

-6.2652358051

129.0287741736

0.3042203566

-6.3919805758

168.8916840278

0.2419149049

-2.6896339469

38.3749275625

0.1885119068

-6.0441938948

256.1493551111

0.1426210104

-7.8880837718

602.4611158403

0.1032794714

-3.1361441288

140.7485640625

0.0698792209

-2.7736742811

182.4615613611

0.0421637794

-1.815860948

162.21843225

0.0203266111

-1.0824084736

219.2966084444

0.0053425728

0.1539366916

285.76212025 8.292388435E-005

2.5434309349

439.63605625

0.0147145368

-211.674

6233

11.213

METODO DE LEBEDIEV
Q/Qm-1

(Q/Qm-1)2

(Q/Qm-1)3

AO

Q m3/sg

1981

20.90

0.2386832414

0.0569696897

0.0135977102

0.0487276192

0.0107562971

1982

20.60

0.2207433334

1983

10.93

-0.3524152459

0.1241965055

-0.043768742

1984

22.40

0.3272174032

0.107071229

0.0350355695

1985

17.53

0.0390134976

0.001522053 5.93806111E-005

1986

28.37

0.6808404943

0.4635437787

1987

16.11

-0.0455801064

1988

18.40

0.0905864123

0.0082058981

0.3155993754

0.0020775461 -9.46947723E-005
0.0007433429

1989

20.39

0.2079834319

0.0432571079

0.0089967618

10

1990

11.36

-0.3269003809

0.106863859

-0.0349338362

11

1991

13.00

-0.2299122905

0.0528596613

-0.0121530858

12

1992

6.19

-0.6329207434

0.4005886675

-0.2535408772

13

1993

16.00

-0.0516193322

0.0026645555

-0.0001375426

14

1994

24.55

0.4544559413

0.2065302026

0.0938588776

15

1995

11.86

-0.2969955963

0.0882063842

-0.0261969077

16

1996

13.51

-0.1995729581

0.0398293656

-0.0079488643

17

1997

12.74

-0.2452794784

0.0601620225

-0.0147565095

18

1998

14.81

-0.1224901165

0.0150038286

-0.0018378207

19

1999

16.90

0.0017016494 2.89561070E-006 4.92731422E-009

20

2000

20.97

0.2424608438

TOTAL

337.52

0.0587872608

0.0142536089

1.8870701305

0.097532048

OBTENCION DE Qm
Qm= 16.88
CALCULOS:
CALCULO DEL COEFICIENTE DE VARIACION
Cv= 0.3071701589
COEFICIENTE DE ASIMETRIA
Cs=

0.1682597662

CONSIDERANDO QUE LA AVENIDA SE PRODUCE POR UNA TORMENTA

Cs=

0.9215104767

OBTENCION DEL COEFICIENTE K

PARA PERIODO DE RETORNO DE 50 AOS

P= 1/50

2.00%

K= 2.26

SEGN LA TABLA 6.17

PARA PERIODO DE RETORNO DE 100 AOS

P= 1/100

1.00%

K= 2.61

SEGN LA TABLA 6.17

CALCULO DE Er
para 50 a

Er= 0.2

segn grafico 6.3

para 100

Er= 0.22

CALCULO DEL CAUDAL MAXIMO

para t=50 aos
Qmax= 28.5910290624
para t=100 aos
Qmax= 30.4053370293
maximos:
con un intervalo de confianza
para 50 aos
DQ=

29.68

Qd100aos=

31.68

1.086835237

para 100aos
DQ=

Qd50aos=

minimos
1.2713830889

Qd50aos=

27.50

Qd100aos=

29.13

METODO DE LEBEDIEV
Q/Qm-1

(Q/Qm-1)2

(Q/Qm-1)3

AO

Q m3/sg

1981

20.90

0.2386832414

0.0569696897

0.0135977102

0.0487276192

0.0107562971

1982

20.60

0.2207433334

1983

10.93

-0.3524152459

0.1241965055

-0.043768742

1984

22.40

0.3272174032

0.107071229

0.0350355695

1985

17.53

0.0390134976

0.001522053 5.93806111E-005

1986

28.37

0.6808404943

0.4635437787

1987

16.11

-0.0455801064

1988

18.40

0.0905864123

0.0082058981

0.3155993754

0.0020775461 -9.46947723E-005
0.0007433429

1989

20.39

0.2079834319

0.0432571079

0.0089967618

10

1990

11.36

-0.3269003809

0.106863859

-0.0349338362

11

1991

13.00

-0.2299122905

0.0528596613

-0.0121530858

12

1992

6.19

-0.6329207434

0.4005886675

-0.2535408772

13

1993

16.00

-0.0516193322

0.0026645555

-0.0001375426

14

1994

24.55

0.4544559413

0.2065302026

0.0938588776

15

1995

11.86

-0.2969955963

0.0882063842

-0.0261969077

16

1996

13.51

-0.1995729581

0.0398293656

-0.0079488643

17

1997

12.74

-0.2452794784

0.0601620225

-0.0147565095

18

1998

14.81

-0.1224901165

0.0150038286

-0.0018378207

19

1999

16.90

0.0017016494 2.89561070E-006 4.92731422E-009

20

2000

20.97

0.2424608438

TOTAL

337.52

0.0587872608

0.0142536089

1.8870701305

0.097532048

OBTENCION DE Qm
Qm= 16.88
CALCULOS:
CALCULO DEL COEFICIENTE DE VARIACION
Cv= 0.3071701589
COEFICIENTE DE ASIMETRIA
Cs=

0.1682597662

CONSIDERANDO QUE LA AVENIDA SE PRODUCE POR UNA TORMENTA

Cs=

0.9215104767

OBTENCION DEL COEFICIENTE K

PARA PERIODO DE RETORNO DE 50 AOS

P= 1/50

2.00%

K= 2.26

SEGN LA TABLA 6.17

PARA PERIODO DE RETORNO DE 100 AOS

P= 1/100

1.00%

K= 2.61

SEGN LA TABLA 6.17

CALCULO DE Er
para 50 a

Er= 0.2

segn grafico 6.3

para 100

Er= 0.22

CALCULO DEL CAUDAL MAXIMO

para t=50 aos
Qmax= 28.5910290624
para t=100 aos
Qmax= 30.4053370293
maximos:
con un intervalo de confianza
para 50 aos
DQ=

29.68

Qd100aos=

31.68

1.086835237

para 100aos
DQ=

Qd50aos=

minimos
1.2713830889

Qd50aos=

27.50

Qd100aos=

29.13