Risk Management

Date: 3 March 07
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RiskManagementPlan
Hannibals Campaign
to Rome
by Dimitrios V. Siskos
This paper is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the course
Project Risks and Decisions (Msc in Project Management)
www.thinkingfinance.info
Table of Contents
Overview of the historical situation..................................................... 1

1. METHODOLOGY...................................................................................... 2
1.1 Purpose ....................................................................................... 2
1.2 Scope........................................................................................... 2
2. ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES ................................................................ 2
2.1 Invasion to Rome Roles and Responsibilities ......................... 3
2.1 Project Sponsor ........................................................................... 3
3. BUDGETING ........................................................................................... 4
4. TIMING .................................................................................................. 4
5. SCORING AND INTERPRETATION .............................................................. 5
6. THRESHOLDS ......................................................................................... 7
7. REPORTING FORMATS ............................................................................ 7
8. TRACKING.............................................................................................. 9
9. W HAT HAS FINALLY HAPPENED? ............................................................. 9
10. W HAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR US?....................................................... 10
11. REFERENCES ..................................................................................... 11
1
Overview of the historical situation
In 221, Hannibal was elected commander by the Carthaginian army in Iberia.
The Carthaginian government confirmed the decision. He returned to his
father's aggressive military politics and attacked the natives: in 220 he
captured Salamanca. The next year, he besieged Saguntum, a Roman ally.
Since Rome was occupied with the Second Illyrian War and unable to
support the town, Saguntum fell after a blockade of eight months.
Hannibal continued to extent Carthage's territory: he appointed his brother
Hasdrubal as commander in Iberia, and in May 218 he crossed the river Ebro
in order to complete the conquest of the Iberian Peninsula. On hearing the
news, Rome declared the Second Punic War and sent reinforcements to
Sicily, where they expected a Carthaginian attack.
Surprisingly, Hannibal interrupted his campaigns in Catalonia, and decided to
win the war by a bold invasion of Italy before the Romans were prepared.
That venture was very risky one because he had to cross the Pyrenees and
the Alps with an army of 50,000 infantry, 9,000 cavalry and 37 elephants
Risk Management Plan

1. METHODOLOGY
1.1 Purpose
This document describes the Risk Management Plan for the Campaign to
Rome Project. The purpose of risk management is to identify threats to
project success and to mitigate or eliminate the negative impacts to the
project.
This document will be reviewed at least monthly and updated as needed, as a
result of continuous process improvement efforts by the headquarters of
Hannibals army (the project management team). Lessons learned as a result
of continuing risk management efforts will be captured at the end of each
project phase and used to improve the division-level standards.
1.2 Scope
This Risk Management Plan identifies the procedures used to manage risk
throughout the invasion (project). In addition to documenting the approach to
risk identification and analysis, the plan covers who is responsible for
managing risks, how risks will be tracked throughout the project lifecycle, and
how mitigation and contingency plans are developed and implemented. This
document also describes how the project participates in division-level risk
management activities and reporting.
2. ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES

There are many stakeholders involved in managing project risks. In some
cases, one individual may perform multiple roles in the process.
3
Each of them is trained on his risk responsibilities by his manager when he
joins the project. Project councils (meetings) are used to inform staff on any
changes to the process of the invasion.
2.1 Invasion to Rome Roles and Responsibilities
(Project Manager) Hannibal Barca is responsible for approval of the project
Risk Management Plan, participates in the risk management process, and
takes ownership of risk mitigation/contingency planning and execution. The
Project Manager ultimately is responsible for the final decision on risk actions.
Project Team participates in the risk identification process, and discusses
risk monitoring and mitigation activities at team meetings.
Project Senior/Functional Officers (Managers) are responsible for ensuring
risk analysis is completed, risk mitigation/contingency strategies are
developed, and plans are executed successfully.
Risk Manager is responsible for leading the risk management effort,
sponsoring risk identification activities, facilitating communication throughout
the execution of the risk management process, and ensuring the plan is
maintained.
The Risk Manager is responsible for providing Hannibal Barca (the Project
Manager) with recommendations risk actions.
Risk Owner the person who is responsible for managing an individual risk.
The risk owner will be a member of the project team.
2.2 Project Sponsor

Carthage Government (Project Sponsor) participates in risk identification
and risk activities as part of the project team. The Sponsor also receives
4
escalated risks and assists with mitigation and contingency actions for them,
as needed.
Except for all these, they have the responsibility to refit Hannibals army with
military material or human resources.
3. BUDGETING
In order to assure that there will be a risk forecast in every battle / action, a
risk reserve fund is set of about 12% of the battle total cost. Risk allocation
will be appeared in the projects approved budget as the figure below:
Action 1
Direct Cost
Indirect Cost
Risk reserve
fund
12%
(x+y)*12%=z
Total Cost
x+y+z
Costs should be properly supported by realistic resources. No action or battle

is being accepted unless it fulfills the above criteria.
4. TIMING
The risk management plan defines the project will be completed in May, 216
and as an outcome will be the conquest of Rome.
The status of the actions for the risks selected to be mitigated will be reviewed
by Hannibal Barca on a monthly basis during their regular status councils
(meetings).
The risk management process will be reviewed, at a minimum, at the following

times during the project:
Quarterly beginning
At the completion of each major action/battle phase.
As it has already referred in the roles and responsibilities part, the project
team is mainly assigned to discuss risk monitoring and audit its processes
regularity. Below are the issues which have to be reviewed throughout the
process:
Review period: Quarterly
Progress and performance indicators
Project (Campaign) Progress/performance Status of
Are
implementation
indicator
indicator
additional
actions
needed?
A
5. SCORING AND INTERPRETATION

Qualitative Analysis
In order to escalate risks, it is suggested to impress:
Risk probability & impact
Thus, if
Notes
6
1. probability (0,1 / 0,3 / 0,5/ 0,7 / 0,9) * impact (0,05 / 0,1 / 0,2/ 0,4
/ 0,8) < 0,04 then the risk is considered to be low.
/ 0,8) > 0,04 and < 0,14, then the risk is considered to be
moderate.
/ 0,8) > 0,14 then the risk is considered to be high.
In the 1st occasion, risk is reported to risk officer (manager).
In the 2nd occasion, risk is reported to risk officer (manager). He is
responsible to transfer it to the senior office.
In the 3rd occasion, risk is reported to risk officer (manager). He is responsible
to transfer it to the senior office. Finally risk is transmitted to Hannibal Barca
(project manager) in order to decide about the mitigation plan.
Qualitative Analysis
The tool which is going to be used in order to evaluate risks and theirs impact
is interviewing technique.
We quantify the probability and impact of risks on project objectives.
Thereinafter we gather the optimistic, pessimistic and the most likely
scenarios.
WBS
Element
Range
Pessimistic
Most Likely
Action 1
Action 2
Action 3
Optimistic
6. THRESHOLDS
In that stage, we need to define the accepted values of the previous analysis.
That definition will help us to decide whether to accept a risk and try to
mitigate it or to avoid it and not take some considerable actions about it.
As long as we calculate risk probability and impact value by using qualitative
analysis, we set the minimum of acceptance value per kind of risk.
Kind of Risk
Acceptable Risk Value
Unacceptable Risk Value
Cost
> 0,06
< 0,06
Schedule
> 0,07
< 0,07
Army Staffing and

Other Resources
> 0,03
< 0,03
Other
> 0,05
< 0,05
7. REPORTING FORMATS
The risk owner is required to report updates to the Risk Manager at least per
2 weeks / month. The Risk Manager updates the plan to reflect the current
risk state. The Risk Manager reviews the status of risk activities at least
monthly with the project management team at the councils (meetings) and
discusses the effectiveness of the current action plans.
Below, there is a format which it is required to be filled in order the detected
risk to be accepted.
Data Element
Description
Example
Risk
Identification
Number
Unique identifier for tracking

the risk.
Status
Indicates the current status
Open
of the risk item such as:

open, closed, cancelled, onhold.
Originator
Name of individual who

reported the risk.
Origination Date Date the risk was submitted.
Assigned To
12 May, 221
Lead person responsible for

creating and managing the
mitigation activities.
Risk manager
Priority
Reflects the importance of

this risk priority.
High
Risk Approach
Determine how the risk will

be handled: mitigate,
accept, avoid, transfer
Accept
Earliest Impact Earliest date the risk could

Date
become a problem based
on schedule
4 October, 217
Latest Impact
Date
Latest date the risk could

become a problem based
on schedule
18 October, 217
Title
Brief description of the risk
Harsh winter in Alps
Description
Gives a concise statement

of the risk.
Crossing difficulties.
Elephants survival becomes
very precarious.
Probability of
Occurrence
Likelihood of the event

occurring:
Low
0,1 / 0,3 / 0,5/ 0,7 / 0,9
High
Impact Criteria
Consequence
0,7
Impact to the whole project

Low
0,05 / 0,1 / 0,2/ 0,4 / 0,8
High
States the consequence of
the event, if it occurs.
0,4
We lose our competitive

advantage, our elephants.
Negative reflection to the
battles.
Difficulties in our
movements
Risk Handling
Plans
Briefly describes plans to

mitigate the risk.
Change direction.
Wait until the winter comes
away.
Communications regarding risks are continuous during the project both

through verbal and written reports.
8. TRACKING
The tracking of risk mitigation actions will be done via the project work plan
during the status reporting at the project (councils) meetings.
The records of the risks activities must be organized and classified per risk
occurrence.
The intent of risk tracking is to ensure successful risk mitigation. It answers
the question How are things going? by:
Communicating risks to all affected stakeholders (Hannibal Barca, the

city of Carthage, the Generals, the alliances)
Monitoring risk mitigation plans,
Reviewing regular status updates,
Alerting the leaders of the army as to when risk mitigation plans should
be implemented or adjusted.
9. WHAT HAS FINALLY HAPPENED?

The successful commander (Hannibal Barca) was thirty years old when he
entered Capua (the capital of Italy), seated on his last surviving elephant.
10
He remained at Romans Throne until 206. Hannibal Barca poisoned himself
in winter 183/182 after losing a battle with Romans.
After Hannibal's death, Roman power was not seriously challenged for almost
six centuries.
10. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR US?

Romans offered the inhabitants of Italy and -later- the Mediterranean world a
civil law code that contained some elements that we still consider to be
important. In fact, this is why Rome won the war against Hannibal. Its Italian
allies knew that Rome had more to offer than Carthage.
11
11. REFERENCES
1. Project
Management
Institute.
(2004). A guide
to
the
project
management body of knowledge (PMBOK Guide) (3rd ed.). Newtown

Square, PA: Author
2. http://www.livius.org/ha-hd/hannibal/hannibal.html
3. www.bestpractices.cahwnet.gov/documents/Project%20Office%20in%20
a%20Box%20-%20Risk%20Management%20Plan%20...

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Date: 3 March 07

Overview of the historical situation..................................................... 1

Risk Management Plan

2. ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES

2.2 Project Sponsor

Costs should be properly supported by realistic resources. No action or battle

The risk management process will be reviewed, at a minimum, at the following

At the completion of each major action/battle phase.

5. SCORING AND INTERPRETATION

Acceptable Risk Value

Unacceptable Risk Value

Army Staffing and

Unique identifier for tracking

Indicates the current status

of the risk item such as:

Name of individual who

Origination Date Date the risk was submitted.

Lead person responsible for

Reflects the importance of

Determine how the risk will

Earliest Impact Earliest date the risk could

Latest date the risk could

Brief description of the risk

Harsh winter in Alps

Gives a concise statement

Likelihood of the event

Impact to the whole project

We lose our competitive

Briefly describes plans to

Communications regarding risks are continuous during the project both

Communicating risks to all affected stakeholders (Hannibal Barca, the

Monitoring risk mitigation plans,

Reviewing regular status updates,

9. WHAT HAS FINALLY HAPPENED?

10. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR US?

management body of knowledge (PMBOK Guide) (3rd ed.). Newtown

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