Simple Moving Average

Periode
MAD
MSE
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

3
43.88889
2272.931
Actual
10
12
53
65
75
45
67
74
62
64
65
68

Mean Absolut Deviasi

Mean Square Error
Forecast

Simple Mov

Error
80
70

17.66667
21.66667
25
15
22.33333
24.66667
20.66667
21.33333
21.66667

47.33333
53.33333
20
52
51.66667
37.33333
43.33333
43.66667
46.33333

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1

Actual 10

Simple Moving Average

5
Actual 10 12

7
Forecast

10

Simple
Moving
Average
Ft
= Forecast
for period t (or the

coming

p
= Number
of periods to be averaged
A t -1 Actual demand
in period t - 1 (or the
Ft

A t 1 A t 2 A t 3 ... A t - p

p
Mean Absolute
Deviation
(MAD)
t = Period number
A = Actual demand
for the period
F = Forecast
demand
for the
n = Total number
of periods
n

A t Ft

MAD

Mean

Square

t 1

n
Error

MSE

A
t 1

Ft

n 1

(MSE)

period

period)
previous

period)