Concept of Probability
Learning Outcome:
The students should be able to understand the basic concept of probability, sample space,
probability of events, counting rule; conditional probability; multiplication rule and Bayes
theorem
Exercise 1: (Example 1 L1)
Each message in a digital communication system is classified as to whether it is received
within the time specified by the system design. If 3 messages are classified, what is an
appropriate sample space for this experiment?
(b) A
(c) A B
Supplier
R
S
T
Conforms
Yes
No
30
10
22
8
25
5
Let A denote the event that a sample is from supplier R, and B denote the event that a sample
conforms to the specifications. If sample is selected at random, determine the following
probabilities:
(a) P(A)
(b) P(B)
(c) P(B)
(d) P(AUB) (e) P(A B) (f) P(AUB)
(g) P ( A B ) (h) P ( B A)
High
Medium
Low
Shock
Resistance
Let A denote the event that a disc has high shock resistance, and B denote the event that a
disc has high scratch resistance. If sample is selected at random, determine the following
probabilities:
(a) P(A)
(b) P(B)
(c) P(B)
(d) P(AUB) (e) P(A B) (f) P(AUB)
(g) P ( A B ) (h) P ( B A)
SOLUTION:
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
(f)
(g)
(h)
Exercise 5:
The reaction times ( in minutes) of a reactor for two batches are measured in an experiment.
a) Define the sample space of the experiment.
b) Define event A where the reaction time of the first batch is less than 45 minutes and event
B is the reaction time of the second batch is greater than 75 minutes.
c) Find A U B, A B and A
d) Verify whether events A and B are mutually exclusive.
SOLUTION:
(i)
(ii)
C={BB,BW}
P(C/A) = P(CA)/P(A) = P(BB)/P(A) = 1/3
Exercise 8:
An oil-prospecting firm plans to drill two exploratory wells. Past evidence is used to assess
the possible outcomes listed in the following table:
Event
Description
Probability
A
B
C
0.80
0.18
0.02
P( A B ), P( B C ) and P ( B ' )
Exercise 11:
Suppose each student is assigned a 5 digit number. How many different numbers can be
created?
A menu has five appetizers, three soup, seven main course, six salad dressings and eight
desserts. In how many ways can
a) A full meal be chosen?
b) A meal be chosen if either and appetizer or a soup is ordered, but not both?
SOLUTION:
a)
b) A meal be chosen if either and appetizer or a soup is ordered, but not both is
(5 + 3) x 7 x 6 x 8 = 2688
Exercise 17:
A contractor has 8 suppliers from which to purchase electrical supplies. He will select 3 of
these at random and ask each supplier to submit a project bid. In how many ways can the
selection of bidders be made?
Exercise 20:
A university warehouse has received shipment of 25 printers, of which 10 are laser printers
and 15 are inkjet models. If 6 of these 25 are selected at random by a technician, what is the
probability that exactly 3 of those selected are laser printers?
Exercise 21:
There are 17 broken light bulbs in a box of 100 light bulbs. A random sample of 3 light bulbs
is chosen without replacement.
a) How many ways are there to choose the sample?
b) How many samples contain no broken light bulbs?
c) What is the probability that the sample contains no broken light bulbs?
d) How many ways to choose a sample that contains exactly 1 broken light bulb?
e) What is the probability that the sample contains no more than 1 broken light bulb?
a)
P (T ) 0.78 ,
P (T S ) 0.69 ,
0.885
P (T )
0.78
P (T S ' ) 0.09 ,
0.25
P ( S ' A' )
0.16
Exercise 23: (Example 12 L4)
S
0.14
A
0.23
N
0.37
SA SN
0.08 0.09
AN
0.13
SAN
0.05
P (B|A) = 4/499
Because P (B|A) not equal to P(B) , then A and B are not independent events
b)
10
Everyday (Mon to Fri) a batch of components sent by a first supplier arrives at certain
inspection facility. Two days a week, a batch also arrives from a second supplier. Eighty
percent of all batches from supplier 1 pass inspection, and 90% batches of supplier 2 pass
inspection. On a randomly selected day, what is the probability that two batches pass
inspection?
Exercise 26:
The probability is 1% that an electrical connector that is kept dry fails during the warranty
period of a portable computer. If the connector is ever wet, the probability of a failure during
the warranty period is 5%. If 90% of the connectors are kept dry and 10% are wet, what
proportion of connectors fail during the warranty period?
11
During a space shot, the primary computer system is backed up by two secondary systems.
They operate independently of one another, and each is 90% reliable. What is the probability
that all three systems will be operable at the time of the launch?
Exercise 29:
A store stocks light bulbs from three suppliers. Suppliers A, B, and C supply 10%, 20%, and
70% of the bulbs respectively. It has been determined that company As bulbs are 1%
defective while company Bs are 3% defective and company Cs are 4% defective. If a bulb
is selected at random and found to be defective, what is the probability that it came from
supplier B?
12
A company rated 75% of its employees as satisfactory and 25% unsatisfactory. Of the
satisfactory ones 80% had experience, of the unsatisfactory only 40%. If a person with
experience is hired, what is the probability that (s)he will be satisfactory?
Exercise 32:
In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1, B2, B3, make 30%, 45% and 25%,
respectively, of the products. It is known from past experience that 2%,3% and 2% of the
products made by each machine, respectively, are defective. Now, suppose that a finished
product is randomly selected. What is the probability that it is defective?
P(F) = P(FA)+P(FB)+P(FC)=(0.25)(0.05)+(0.30)(0.04)+(0.45)(0.03)
= 0.038
(ii)
13
Suppose that a test for Influenza A, H1N1 disease has a very high success rate: if a tested
patient has the disease, the test accurately reports this, a positive, 99% of the time, and if a
tested patient does not have the disease, the test accurately reports that, a negative, 95% of
the time. Suppose also, however, that only 0.1% of the population have that disease.
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
SOLUTION:
Let D be the event that the patient has the disease, and E be the event that the test returns a
positive result.
(i)
(ii)
The probability that the patient has the disease given that he has a positive
test actually is the probability of a true positive, that is
P(D |E) = P(DE)/P(E) = (0.001)(0.99)/0.05094 = 0.019
(iii)
Exercise 35:
An insurance company charges younger drivers a higher premium than it
does older drivers because younger drivers as a group tend to have more
accidents. The company has 3 age groups: Group A includes those less
than 25 years old, have a 22% of all its policyholders. Group B includes
those 25-39 years old, have a 43% of all its policyholders, Group C
includes those 40 years old and older, have 35% of all its policyholders.
Company records show that in any given one-year period, 11% of its
Group A policyholders have an accident. The percentages for groups B
and C are 3% and 2%, respectively.
(a)
(b)
Suppose Mr. Chong has just had a car accident. If he is one of the
companys policyholders, what is the probability that he is under 25?
14
2
1
Descriptive Statistics
Learning Outcome:
The students should be able to understand the basic concept of statistics, descriptive
statistics, measures of tendency, measures of dispersions and data display.
Exercise 1: (Example 1 L1)
Find the mean, median and mode for the following observations:
6.5
7.8
4.6
3.7
6.5 9.2
12.1
6.5
3.7
10.8
2.6
2.8
3.2
3.6
4.3
5.2
6.9
2.8 3.6
SOLUTION:
Arrange the observations in increasing order: n = 11
Mean = 40.9/11 = 3.718
Median = 3.6
Mode = 3.6
Exercise 3: (Example 2 L1)
Seven oxide thickness measurements of wafers are studied to assess quality in a
semiconductor manufacturing process. The data (in angstroms) are: 1264, 1280, 1301, 1300,
1292, 1307, and 1275. Calculate the sample average, variance and standard deviation.
15
Sample variance:
16
81.9
73.8
68.6
58.3
48.0
37.4
80.8
72.7
67.5
58.5
47.8
36.8
79.4
72.6
66.8
57.6
46.5
36.5
78.2
71.4
65.2
56.9
45.9
35.6
76.5
70.9
64.4
55.2
44.6
34.9
SOLUTION:
Mean = 2166.4 / 36 = 60.177
Variance = 234.177
Standard deviation = 15.302
Exercise 6:
Find the mean, variance and standard deviation of the following samples of marks for the
engineering drawing course.
98.4
89.6
79.7
69.8
59.2
59.6
39.8
98.1
88.7
78.2
68.6
58.3
48.0
37.4
98.0
87.3
77.4
67.5
58.5
47.8
36.8
97.8
86.8
77.4
66.8
57.6
46.5
36.5
96.4
85.7
76.8
65.2
56.9
45.9
35.6
17
90.5
80.8
71.4
60.7
51.2
40.6
31.6
18
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
94.1
87.3
94.1
92.4
84.6
85.4
93.2
84.1
92.1
90.6
83.6
86.6
90.6
90.1
96.4
89.1
85.4
91.7
91.4
95.2
88.2
88.8
89.7
87.5
88.2
86.1
86.4
86.4
87.6
84.2
86.1
94.3
85.0
85.1
85.1
85.1
95.1
93.2
84.9
84.0
89.6
90.5
90.0
86.7
78.3
93.7
90.0
95.6
92.4
83.0
89.6
87.7
90.1
88.3
87.3
95.3
90.3
90.6
94.3
84.1
86.6
94.1
93.1
89.4
97.3
83.7
91.2
97.8
94.6
88.6
96.8
82.9
86.1
93.1
96.3
84.1
94.4
87.3
90.4
86.4
94.7
82.6
96.1
86.4
89.1
87.6
91.1
83.1
98.0
84.5
SOLUTION:
(i)
19
20
(ii)
(iii)
LEAF
1
2
4
8
6
10
7
5
6
10
4
3
5
8
4
4
2
1
90
78
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
3
6
0
0
0
1
3
2
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
3
0
9
1
1
1
1
3
2
1
0
2
4
1
1
2
3
8
6
1
1
1
3
3
4
1
4
4
2
1
3
4
7
1
1
4
5
6
6
1
7
2
3
6
8
2
4
4
6
8
6
3
7
3
5
4
4
6
4
7
7
4
Median = 89.25, 1st Q = 86.1, 3rd Q = 93.1, 5th% = 83.325, 95th% = 96.355
21
Exercise 9:
The average age of the football players on each team of the premier league as follows.
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
29.4
29.8
29.4
31.8
32.7
34.0
28.5
27.9
30.9
29.3
28.8
28.6
29.1
31.0
30.7
30.3
29.7
31.0
28.4
28.9
27.7
28.7
30.5
29.8
26.6
27.9
27.9
29.9
29.3
28.1
22
Solution:
(i)
(ii)
(v)
23
Exercise 12:
Ipoh Pantai Hospital compiles data on the length of stay by patients in short-term hospitals. A
random sample of 21 patients yielded the following data on length of stay, in days.
3
4
5
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
6 15
4 12
10 13
7 3 55 1
18 9 6 12
7 1 23 9
24
3
2
Discrete
Discrete
Discrete
Continuous
Continuous
Continuous
Discrete
Discrete
Discrete
Continuous
25
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
0.3
5
0.
5
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
50
10
0
15
0
200
0.1
5
0.3
5
0.2 0.0
5
Solution:
(a)
(b)
(c)
k = 1 (0.15+0.35+0.2+0.05) = 0.25;
Discrete since the profit is in term of integer value;
E(X) = (0)(0.15)+(50)(0.35)+(100)(0.25)+(150)(0.2)+(200)(0.05)
= 82.5
26
(d)
e)
0
42
1
51
2
63
3 4
38 19
5
16
6
12
7
10
8
6
9
2
10
1
Solution:
(a)
X:
f:
0
42
1
51
2
63
3
38
27
4
19
5
16
6
12
7
10
8
6
9
2
10
1
P(X):
0.16 0.20 0.24 0.15 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00
(b)
(c)
P (0 X 4) P ( X 0) P ( X 1) P ( X 2) P ( X 3) P ( X 4)
= 0.16 + 0.20 + 0.24 + 0.15 + 0.07 = 0.82
(d)
(e)
E(X)=2.55
SD(X) = 4.66
28
What is the probability that all the student pilots successfully land the plane using
the simulator?
What is the probability that none of the student pilots successfully lands the plane
using the simulator?
What is the probability that exactly eight of the student pilots successfully land the
plane using the simulator?
Solution:
(a)
The probability that all the student pilots successfully land the plane using
the simulator is
(b)
The probability that none of the student pilots successfully lands the plane
using the simulator is
(c)
The probability that exactly eight of the student pilots successfully land
the plane using the simulator is
Exercise 8: (Quiz 2)
Suppose X has a Poisson distribution a mean of 5 Determine the following.
(a)
P(X = 0);
29
(b)
P(X = 5);
(c)
P(X < 3); and
P ( X 4) .
(d)
Exercise 9: (Example 4 L2)
At the Mc Donald drive-thru window of food establishment, it was found that during slower
periods of the day, vehicles visited at the rate of 12 per hour. Determine the probability that
(a)
no vehicles visiting the drive-thru within a ten-minute interval during one of these
slow periods;
(b)
only 2 vehicles visiting the drive-thru within a ten-minute interval during one of
these slow periods; and
(c)
at least three vehicles visiting the drive-thru within a ten-minute interval during one
of these slow periods.
40 e 4
0.0183
0!
(a)
P ( X 0)
(b)
P ( X 1) 1 P ( X 0) 1
(c)
P( X 3)
10 e 1
0.6321
0!
13 e 1
0.0613
3!
30
4
3
a)
b)
c)
1.5x 2 for 1 x 1
f (x )
0,
elsewhere
Find
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
kx , 1 x 2
f ( x)
0 , elsewhere
the value of constant k;
P(X < 1);
the mean of X; and
the standard deviation of X.
31
kxe2x , x 0
f ( x)
,x 0
Find
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
Solution:
(i) kxe 2 x dx k
0
1
xe 2 x
2
k
0
1 2 x
1
e
dx e 2 x
2
4
k
0
1
k 1 k 4
4
(ii)
P ( X 1)
2 x
2 x
4 xe dx 2 xe
2e 2 x dx 2e 2 e 2 3e 2 0.406
1
(iii)
2
P (0 X 2) 4 xe 2 x dx 2 xe 2 x
0
5e
(iv)
2
0
2e 2 x dx 4e 4 [e 4 1]
0
1 0.9084
mean( X ) E ( X )
4x
e 2 x dx 1
32
E( X 2 )
(v)
4x
e 2 x dx
Var ( X )
3
2
3
1
12
2
2
kx 2
f ( x)
Find
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
,0 x 1
, elsewhere
Exercise 5:
Find the cumulative probability distribution of X given that the density function is
Find
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
k (1 x4 ), for 0 x 1
f ( x)
0, elsewhere
33
f ( x) 4
0
Pdf of X is
(b)
, elsewhere
0dx 0
(a)
,5 x 9
for x 5
1 1
F ( x) 0dx dx x
for 5 x 9
- 5 4 4
0 91
0dx dx 0dx 1 for x 9
- 5 4 9
34
(c)
(d)
(e)
Mean(X)=7
SD(X)=1.154
35
2 2 / 3 x
e ,x0
pdf for X is f ( x) 3
0 , x 0
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
45
2 2 / 3x
)
e
dx e 2 / 3 x
60
3
45 / 60
P(50/60 < X < 100/60) =0.2446
P(X < 150/60) = 0.8111
P( X
45 / 60
0.6065
36
(ii)
(iii)
365 300
) P ( Z 1.3) (1.3) 0.9032
50
(i)
P ( X 365) P ( Z
(ii)
(iii)
Exercise 12:
The line width of a tool used for semiconductor manufacturing is assumed to be normally
distributed with a mean of 0.5 micrometer and a standard deviation of 0.05 micrometer.
(i)
What is the probability that a line width is greater than 0.62 micrometer?
(ii)
What is the probability that a line width is between 0.47 and 0.63 micrometer?
(iii)
The line width of 90% of samples is below what value?
37
38