Transport

Failure
Probability
Probability of
Immediate
Ignition
Transport
Small (Vapour,
25 mm dia.)
5.00 x
10-6 per
2.00 x
Flash Fire/
VCE
0.2
0.8
year
Large (Liquid,
Catastrophic Rupture)
10-6 per
0.05
0.95
Delayed
Ignition
0.9
0.1
year
0.9
0.9
0.1
0.1
Consequence
Outcome
Frequency of Each
Failure Event
Jet Fire/BLEVE
Flash Fire
2.50 x 10 -7 per year

9.50 x 10 -7 per year
Dispersion
3.80 x 10 -6 per year
Fireball
Flash Fire
1.80 x 10 -6 per year

1.62 x 10 -7 per year
VCE
Dispersion
1.80 x 10 -8 per year

2.00 x 10 -8 per year
Inventory : LPG = 8000 kg
Figure No.
Proposed Joint User Complex and Wholesale Fish Market at Area 44, Tuen Mun, New Territories
Scale
Event Trees
Page No.
8.4a
NTS
Date
5/ 01
AEC
Failure
Probability
Transfer
Coupling/Hose
Probability of
Immediate
Ignition
Delayed
Ignition
Flash Fire/
VCE
0.05
0.95
0.2
2.60 x 10 -5 per year
0.9
0.1
0.8
0.05
Breakaway
0.95
0.2
1.35 x 10 -6 per year
0.9
0.1
0.8
0.05
Pipework
0.95
0.2
4.00 x 10 -5 per year

0.8
0.9
0.1
Consequence
Outcome
Frequency of Each
Failure Event
Jet Fire
Flash Fire
2.34 x 10-7 per year

VCE
Dispersion
Jet Fire
Flash Fire
VCE
Dispersion
Jet Fire
Flash Fire
VCE
Dispersion

Figure No.
Scale
Event Trees
Page No.
8.4b
NTS
Date
5/ 01
AEC
Failure
Probability
Probability of
Immediate
Ignition
Storage Tank
Partial Failure
(25mm dia.)
Delayed
Ignition
Flash Fire/
VCE
0.05
0.95
-5
1.50 x 10 per year
0.2
0.9
0.1
0.8
0.9
Catastrophic Failure
0.1
0.9
0.9
0.1
5.40 x 10 -7 per year

0.1
Consequence
Outcome
Frequency of Each
Failure Event
Jet Fire
Flash Fire
7.50 x 10 -7 per year

2.56 x 10 -6 per year
VCE
2.85 x 10 -7 per year
Dispersion
1.14 x 10 -5 per year
Fireball
4.86 x 10 -7 per year
Flash Fire
VCE
4.37 x 10 -8 per year

4.86 x 10 -9 per year
Dispersion
5.40 x 10 -9 per year
Jet Fire
2.28 x 10 -7 per year
Flash Fire
VCE
7.78 x 10 -7 per year

8.64 x 10 -8 per year
Dispersion
3.46 x 10 -6 per year
Tank to Vaporisers
0.05
-6
4.55 x 10 per year
0.95
0.2
0.9
0.1
0.8
Figure No.
Scale
Event Trees
Page No.
8.4c
NTS
Date
5/ 01
AEC

Transport

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Failure

2.50 x 10 -7 per year

3.80 x 10 -6 per year

1.80 x 10 -6 per year

1.80 x 10 -8 per year

Inventory : LPG = 8000 kg

2.60 x 10 -5 per year

1.35 x 10 -6 per year

4.00 x 10 -5 per year

2.34 x 10-7 per year

8.89 x 10-8 per year

3.56 x 10-6 per year

6.75 x 10-8 per year

2.31 x 10-7 per year

2.57 x 10-8 per year

1.03 x 10-6 per year

2.00 x 10-6 per year

6.84 x 10-6 per year

7.60 x 10-7 per year

Inventory : LPG = 8000 kg

1.50 x 10 per year

5.40 x 10 -7 per year

7.50 x 10 -7 per year

2.85 x 10 -7 per year

1.14 x 10 -5 per year

4.86 x 10 -7 per year

4.37 x 10 -8 per year

5.40 x 10 -9 per year

2.28 x 10 -7 per year

7.78 x 10 -7 per year

3.46 x 10 -6 per year

4.55 x 10 per year

Inventory : LPG = 10000 kg

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