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Proyeksi Penjualan Tahun 2010 Di PT Krida Dinamik Autonosa Ntb Oleh : ARYO DWIATMOJO RB (UNIVERSITAS MATARAM)

Proyeksi Penjualan Tahun 2010 Di PT Krida Dinamik Autonosa Ntb Oleh : ARYO DWIATMOJO RB (UNIVERSITAS MATARAM)

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TUGAS KELOMPOK

MANAJEMEN OPERASIONAL
PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN
NO TOPIK IV
APLIKASI PADA PT. KRIDA DINAMIK AUTONOSA NTB
KELOMPOK :
ARYO DWIATMOJO RAKSA BUANA ( I2A009009 )
DEWI EKAWATI PARLINA ( I2A009015 )
MADE SUWANDANA ( I2A009044)
SITI YULIANA M. YUSU ( I2A0090!1)
KEMENTRIAN PENDIDIKAN NASIONAL
PROGRAM MAGISTER MANAJEMEN UNIVERSITAS MATARAM
TAHUN 2010
BAB I
1
PENDAHULUAN
1.1 Latar Belakan Ma!ala"
PT. K"#$% D#&%'#( A)*+&+,% '-").%(%& ,%/%0 ,%*) P-"),%0%%&
1-,%" 2%&3 *-/%0 /%'% 1-"$#"#4 $%& '-").%(%& .-/+.+" 1#,&#,
otomotif $# $%-"%0 NTB ,%%* #&#. D%/%' .-"5%/%&%& $%&
.-"(-'1%&3%&&2% PT K"#$% $#&%'#( A)*+&+,% NTB '-'.-"/#0%*(%&
,)%*) (+&$#,# $#'%&% P-"),%0%%& '%'.) '-&5%$# .-'#'.#& P%,%"
$#6#/%2%0 NTB. 7%/ #&# $%.%* $#/#0%* $%/%' *%1-/ 1-"#()* :
Ta#el 1. Pen$a!aan Pan!a Pa!ar %Market Share& Ta"$n
200' ( 200).
N+ PERUSA7AAN
PANGSA PASAR ( PP) 8
2009 200! 200:
1
2
;
4
5
9
!
KRIDA
ASTRA 7ONDA
SPS
MPM
NSS
PADOLO MOTOR
SURYA UTAMA PERKASA
;1400
2;400
21400
1;400
:400
2400
2400
;0400
25400
20400
12400
:400
;400
2400
;1400
2!400
19400
10400
:400
;400
2400
TOTAL 100400 100400 100400
S)'1-" : PT. K"#$% D#&%'#( A)*+&+,% NTB
B-"$%,%"(%&# *%1-/ 1 $#%*%, *-"/#0%* 1%06% .-&3)%,%%& .%&3,%
.%,%" ( Market Share ) PT. KRIDA DINAMIK AUTONUSA $%"# *%0)&
2009<200: =-&$-")&3 1-">/)(*)%,#4 $#'%&% .%$% *%0)& 2009 market
share 2%&3 $#.-"+/-0 ,-1-,%" ;1 .-",-&4 *%0)& 200! ,-1-,%" ;0
.-",-& $%& .%$% *%0)& 200: ,-1-,%" ;1 .-",-&. B-"$%,%"(%& $%*%
*-",-1)* (#*% $%.%* '-/#0%* 1%3%#'%&% *-"5%$#&2% >/)(*)%,# $%/%'
"-&*%& 6%(*) *#3% *%0)&4 >/)(*)%,# #&# ,-&$#"# *-"5%$# $#,-1%1(%& +/-0
2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
S1
4361
5188
5342
8451
13834
15501
24524
17471
16458
19106
21343
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
TAHUN 1998-2008
JUMLAH
PENJUALAN
DATA PENJUALAN UNIT TAHUNAN DEVISI SEPEDA MOTOR PT
KRIDA DINAMIK AUTONOSA NTB
Series1
1%&2%( >%(*+"4 *-")*%'% >%(*+" $%"# /#&3()&3%& 1#,&#, #*) ,-&$#"# 1%#(
#*) >%(*+" -(,*-"&%/ '%).)& >%(*+" #&*-"&%/.
W%/%).)& *-"(%$%&3 *-"5%$# >/)(*)%,#4 %(%& *-*%.# PT KDA '%,#0
'%'.) '-&5%$# .-'#'.#& .%,%" $#1%&$#&3(%& .%"% (+'.-*#*+"&2%
2%&3 /%#&. W%/%).)& $%*% *-",-1)* '-"->/-(,#(%& (+&$#,# .%&3,%
P%,%" PT K"#$% D#&%'#( A)*+&+,% 2%&3 '%,#0 ()%*. K+&$#,# #&#
*-&*)&2% *#$%( $%.%* '-&5%$# %=)%& 2%&3 (+&,*%& ,-.%&5%&3 6%(*)4
(%"-&% .%$% $%,%"&2% (+'.-*#*+" %(%& *-"), '-&=%"# 5%/%& )&*)(
'-/%()(%& %3"-,# 1#,&#,4 ,-0#&33% '%'.) '-&2#&3(#"(%& .+,#,# PT
KDA 2%&3 ()%* *-",-1)*. U&*)( #*) $#.-"/)(%& ,)%*) "-&=%&%
,*"%*-3#, $%/%' '-&30%$%.# (+&$#,# $# '%,% 2%&3 %(%& $%*%&3.
D#,#,# /%#& 5#(% '-/#0%* *"-&$ .-&5)%/%& ."+$)(<."+$)(&2%
*-"&2%*% .-"'#&*%%& .%,%" %(%& ."+$)(<."+$)( 2%&3 $#(-/)%"(%&
+/-0 PT K"#$% 5)3% =)(). *#&33#. 7%/ #&# $%.%* $#/#0%* .%$% 3"%>#(
.-&5)%/%& )&#* ,-.-$% '+*+" %$%/%0 ,-1%3%# 1-"#()* :
Gra*+k 1. Data Pen,$alan Un+t Ta"$nan De-+!+ !e.e/a M0t0r
/+ PT Kr+/a D+na1+k A$t0n0!a NTB Pr+0/e 122)3200)
Sumber : Data Skunder Diolah
B-"$%,%"(%& 3"%>#( $#%*%, $%.%* $#/#0%* ,)%*) (+&$#,#
.-"'#&*%%& (+&,)'-& %(%& ."+$)( ,-.-$% '+*+" 1-"1%3%# '-"(
3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
S1
257
877
418
483
385
390
386
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
TAHUN 2002-2008
JUMLAH
PENJUALAN
DATA JUMLAH PENJUALAN UNIT TAHUNAN DEVISI MOBIL PT
KRIDA DINAMIK AUTONOSA NTB
Series1
2%&3 $# ,-$#%(%& +/-0 PT KDA $# NTB $%/%' 11 *%0)& *-"%(0#". P%$%
*%0)& 199: 5)'/%0 .-&5)%/%& %$%/%0 ,-1-,%" 4.;91 )&#*4 (-')$#%&
*%0)& 1999 ,-1-,%" 5.1:: )&#*4 *%0)& 2000 ,-1-,%" 5;42 )&#*4 *%0)&
2001 ,-1-,%" :451 )&#*4 0#&33% '-&2-&*)0 .-&5)%/%& *-"*#&33# $#
*%0)& 2004 2%#*) ,-1-,%" 24.524 )&#* $%& #&# '-").%(%& ."-,*%,#
2%&3 3-'#/%&3 $# *%0)& *-",-1)*4 %(%& *-*%.# $# *%0)& 2005
.-&5)%/%& '-&3%/%'# (-'-"+,+*%& $-&3%& *#&3(%* .-&5)%/%&
,-1-,%" 1!4!1 )&#*4 $#*%0)& 2009 *-"), '-&3%/%'# (-'-"+,+*%&
.-&5)%/%& ,-1-,%" 19.45: )&#* (-&$%"%%& 1-"'+*+"4 0#&33% $#*%0)&
200! $%& 200: ')/%# '-&3%/%'# .-&#&3(%*%& (-'1%/# '%,#&3<
'%,#&3 ,-1-,%" 19.109 )&#* $%& 21.;4; )&#*4 %(%& *-*%.# *-*%. ,%5%
*#$%( 1#,% '-&2-&*)0 .-&5)%/%& *-"*#&33# ,-.-"*# $# *%0)& 2004.
S-'-&*%"% )&*)( $%*% .-&5)%/%& )&#* '+1#/ PT K"#$% D#&%'#(
A)*+&+,% NTB $%.%* $# /#0%* .%$% 3"%>#( 2 $#1%6%0 #&# :
Gra*+k 2. Data J$1la" Pen,$alan Un+t Ta"$nan De-+!+ M0#+l /+
PT Kr+/a D+na1+k A$t0n0!a NTB .r+0/e 20023200)

Sumber : Data Skunder diolah
B-"$%,%"(%& $%*% P-&5)%/%& )&#* *%0)&%& D-?#,# M+1#/ $# PT
KDA NTB4 '%(% $%.%* $#/#0%* 1%06% $# *%0)& 2002 5)'/%0
.-"'#&*%%& '+1#/ %$%/%0 ,-1-,%" 25! )&#*4 '-&#&3(%* $# *%0)& 200;
4
'-&-'1), %&3(% .-&5)%/%& *-"*#&33# ,-1-,%" :!! )&#* '+1#/4
(-')$#%& $# *%0)& 2004 '-&3%/%'# >/)(*)%,# 2%&3 *%5%' ,-1-,%"
41: )&#* '+1#/4 '-&#&3(%* $# *%0)& 2005 ,-1-,%" 4:;4 $%&
'-&3%/%'# (-'-"+,+*%& $# *%0)& 2009 ,-1-,%" ;:5 )&#*4 $%& *-"),
'-&3%/%'# >/)(*)%,# 0#&33% $# *%0)& 200: %&3(% .-&5)%/%& %$%/%0
,-1-,%" ;:9 )&#* '+1#/.
/)(*)%,# #&# *-&*)&2% $#,-1%1(%& +/-0 1%&2%( >%(*+" 1%#(
>%(*+" -(,*-"&%/<'%).)& #&*-"&%/ P-"),%0%%&. P#0%( P-"),%0%%&
'-&3%()# 1-/)' .-"&%0 %$%&2% ."+2-(,# .-&5)%/%& )&*)( $#5%$#(%&
%=)%& ,-1%3%# 1%0%& .-"*#'1%&3%& )&*)( '-")'),(%& (-1#5%(%&
,*"%*-3#, $%/%' '-&=%.%# .-&5)%/%& 2%&3 %3"-,#>. O/-0 (%"-&% #*)
.-&)/#, '-&=+1% '-/%()(%& ."+2-(,# P-"'#&*%%& ,-.-$% M+*+" $%&
M+1#/ .%$% *%0)& 2009 $%& 2010 $# PT K"#$% $#&%'#( A)*+&+,% NTB.
Y%&3 '%&% ."+2-(,# #&# 1-"*)5)%& )&*)( '-&3-*%0)# ,-1-"%.% 1-,%"
.-"'#&*%%& (+&,)'-& $#*%0)& 2009 $%& 2010 %(%& ."+$)( ,-.-$%
'+*+" $%& '+1#/4 2%&3 $# 5)%/ +/-0 PT K"#$% D#&%'#( A)*+&+,%
*-",-1)*. D-&3%& %$%&2% 0%,#/ ."+2-(,# $# 0%"%.(%& .%$% '%&%3-"
PT K"#$% &%&*#&2%4 '%'.) '-")'),(%& S*"%*-3# B#,&#, 2%&3 *-.%*
$%& ->#,#-& $%/%' '-&30%$%.# K+'.-*#*+"&2% $# NTB ,-"*%
'-&3%&*#,#.%,# 1-1-"%.% (-')&3(#&%&<(-')&3(#&%& 1)")( 2%&3
%(%& *-"5%$#4 ,-0#&33% (-'-"+,+*%& .-&5)%/%& $%.%* $# *-(%&4 %(#1%*
%$%&2% #&>+"'%,# E,*#'%,# (.-"(#"%%&) .-"'#&*%%& (+&,)'-& %(%&
$)% ."+$)( *-",-1)*.
1.2 Ma!ala"4 Per$1$!an Ma!ala"
5
B-"$%,%"(%& /%*%" 1-/%(%&3 $#%*%,4 '%(% $# *-')(%& $)%
.-"'%,%/%0%& '-&$%,%" 2%&3 '-&5%$# (%5#%& .-&-/#*#%& 2%#*) :
1. S-1-"%.% 1-,%" .-"'#&*%%& (+&,)'-& *-"0%$%. ."+$)(
,-.-$% '+*+" $# PT K"#$% D#&%'#( A)*+&+,% NTB $# *%0)& 2009
$%& 2010 @
2. S-1-"%.% 1-,%" .-"'#&*%%& (+&,)'-& *-"0%$%. ."+$)( '+1#/
$# PT K"#$% D#&%'#( A)*+&+,% NTB $# *%0)& 2009 $%& 2010 @
1.5 Pe1e6a"an Ma!ala"
D%/%' '-'-=%0(%& '%,%/%0 *-",-1)* $#%*%,4 '%(% P-&)/#,
'-&=+1% '-&33)&%(%& '-*+$- ()%&*#*%*#> 2%#*) M+$-/ ARIMA (
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) %*%) $#,-1)* '+$-/ B+A<
J-&(#&,. M+$-/ Box jenkins '-").%(%& ,%/%0 ,%*) *-0&#( .-"%'%/%&
'+$-/ *#'- ,-"#-, 2%&3 0%&2% 1-"$%,%"(%& ."#/%() $%*% ?%"#%1-/
2%&3 $#%'%*# ( let the data speak for themselves). T-(&#( Box-Jenkin
,-1%3%# *-(&#( .-"%'%/%& 1-"1-$% $-&3%& (-1%&2%(%& '+$-/
.-"%'%/%& 2%&3 %$%. D#$%/%' '+$-/ #&# *#$%( %$% %,)',# (0),),
*-&*%&3 $%*% 0#,*+"#, $%"# ")&*)* 6%(*) *-*%.# '-&33)&%(%& '-*+$-
#*-"%*#>)&*)( '-&-&*)(%& '+$-/ *-"1%#(. ( W#$%"5+&+4 2005 : 299).
M-*+$- B+A<J-&(#&, $-&3%& ARMA (Autoregressive-moving
average) %$%/%0 '-*+$- 2%&3 '-&33%1)&3(%& 1%&2%( )&,)" $%/%'
*-+"# $%& 1%&2%( $#.%(%# )&*)( *)5)%& .-"%'%/%& (foreasting).
M-*+$- W+/$ (1951) #&# '-&33%1)&3(%& $)% .+/% ,-"#%/ 6%(*) 2%#*)
AR (Autoregressive) +/-0 Y)/- (1929) $%& MA (moving average) +/-0
S/)*B(2 (19;!). M-*+$- B+A<J-&(#&, #&# '-").%(%& '-*+$- 2%&3
,%&3%* =%&33#0 )&*)( '-/%()(%& .-"%'%/%& 5%&3(% .-&$-(. 7%,#/
.-"%'%/%& %()"%* 2%&3 $#0%,#/(%& '-*+$- #&# %(%& '-'1%&*)
6
'%&%5-" $%/%' '-'1)%* .-"-&=%&%%& ,*"%*-3#, ( D%"'%6%& :
200!).
M+$-/ ARIMA *#$%( '-&,2%"%*(%& ,)%*) .+/% $%*% *-"*-&*)
%3%" '+$-/ $%.%* 1-(-"5% $-&3%& 1%#(. A"*#&2%4 '+$-/ #&# $%.%*
$#.%(%# )&*)( ,-')% *#.- .+/% $%*% (%"-&% '-*+$- B+A<J-&(#&, #&#
'-&33)&%(%& %,)',# 1%06% $%*% #&.)* %$%/%0 $%*% ,*%,#+&-"
(1)(%& $%*% %,/#). B#/% $%*% *#$%( ,*%,#+&-"4 .-"/) $#*"%&,>+"'%,#
*-"/-1#0 $%0)/) $-&3%& '-*+$- .-'1-$%%& (differening)4 2%(&#
$-&3%& =%"% '-&3)"%&3(%& $%*% ,)%*) .-"#+$- *-"*-&*) $-&3%&
$%*% .-"#+$- ,-1-/)'&2%. P%$% )')'&2%4 ,-1)%0 $%*% 1#,&#, %(%&
'-&5%$# ,*%,#+&-" ,-*-/%0 $#/%()(%& ."+,-, .-'1-$%%& .-"*%'%
(differene C1). M+$-/ #&# %(%& 1-(-"5% /-1#0 1%#( 5#(% $%*% time
series 2%&3 $#3)&%(%& 1-",#>%* $-.-&$-&.
Metode AR (Autoregressive) $%.%* $#>+"')/%,#(%& ,-1%3%#
1-"#()*:
............................................................
( 1.0)
V%"#%1-/<?%"#%1-/ %Y*<141Y*<24=Y*<&4 '-").%(%& ?%"#%1-/ 2%&3 ,%'%4
,-0#&33% $#,-1)* auto %*%) .-"#+$- 2%&3 /%'.%).
Metode MA (Moving Average) $%.%* $#>+"')/%,#(%& ,-1%3%#
1-"#()*:
.............................................................
.. (1.1)
$# '%&%D U*C(-,%/%0%&E "-,#$) 2%&3 '-6%(#/# 3%&33)%& %=%( 2%&3
,)(%" )&*)( $#."-$#(,#. P-&33%1)&3%& $%"# (-$)% '-*+$- $# %*%,
'-&30%,#/(%& '-*+$- ARMA (autoregressivemoving average):
7
.............................................................
... (1.2)
M+$-/ $# %*%, '-&33)&%(%& ?%"#%1-/ 2%&3 ,%'% (?%"#%1-/
dependent $#.-&3%")0# ?%"#%1-/&2% ,-&$#"#4 ,-0#&33% ,#>%*&2% ,)/#*
$#."-$#(,#) ,-0#&33% '+$-/ #&# $#&%'%(%& '+$-/ random !alk.
P-"1-$%%& #&*-",-.* 2%&3 ')&3(#& *#'1)/ $#,-1)* drift:
.
M+$-/ ARMA $# %*%, 1#,% 5)3% )&*)( '-'."-$#(,# '+$-/ 2%&3
%$%4 ,-0#&33% '-*+$- ARMA *-",-1)* 1-"1-&*)(:

G%1)&3%& %&*%"% '+$-/ AR $%& MA '-/%0#"(%& '+$-/ ARIMA
%*%) B+A J-&(#&,. T%0%.%& )*%'% ."+,-, B+A<J-&(#&, $#"%&3()'
$%/%' G%'1%".
Ga1#ar M0/el #aan Pr0!e! .era1alan B073Jenk+n!
8
R)'),(%& '+$-/ )')' $%& )5#
,*%*#+&%"#*%, $%*%
I$-&*#>#(%,# M+$-/ *-&*%*#?-
('+$-/ ARIMA)
E,*#'%,# P%"%'-*-" A*%, '+$-/
*-&*%*#>
U5# $#%3&+,*#( A.%(%0 '+$-/
,)$%0 tepat
T#$%(
Y%
Sumber : "unoro # $%%& :'()*
a. U,+ Stat+0nar+ta!
,-1-/)' '-/%()(%& #$-&*#>#(%,# '-&-&*)(%& '+$-/ *-"1%#(4
.-",2%"%*%& ,*%*#+&%"#*%, $%* .-"/) $#5%'#& *-"/-1#0 $%0)/). 7%/ #&#
$#.-"/)(%& $%/%' '-'%,*#(%& %$%&2% 0)1)&3%& 5%&3(% .%&5%&3
,)%*) ?%"#%1-/. 7%/ )*%'% 2%&3 .-"/) $#5%6%1 $%/%' )5# ,*%*#&%"#*%,
$%*% %$%/%0 .%$% $"%5%* ($#>-"-&,#%,#) 1-"%.% ?%"#%1-/ .-&5)%/%&
,*%,#+&-". U5# #&# $%.%* $#/%()(%& $-&3%& '-*+$- unit roots test+
I&$#(%*+"&2% %$%/%0 %.%1#/% &#/%# A)3'-&*-$ D#=(2 )//-" (AD) /-1#0
1-,%" $%"# &#/%# ("#*#,&2% 1-"%"*# $%*% *-/%0 ,*%,#+&-". N%')& %.%1#/%
*#$%( '%(% .-"/) $#/%()(%& $#>-"-&,# *#&3(%* .-"*%'%. P-&3)5#%&
$#/%()(%& $-&3%& '-&33)&%(& ,+>*6%"- E?#-6, ?-",# ;.0.
#. Penent$an 10/el ter#a+k
P-&-&*)%& '+$-/ *-"1%#( $%/%' '-*+$- ARIMA %$%/%0 $-&3%&
'-/%()(%& *"#%/ %&$ -""+" $#%&*%"% (-*#3% '+$-/. M+$-/ *-"1%#(
,-*#$%(&2% '-'#/#(# &#/%# D-*-"'#&%,# ( goodness of fit) $%&
,*%*#,*#( .%/#&3 *#&33#4 ,-"*% '-'#/#(# A(%#(- I&>+ F"#*-"#+& ( AIF)
.%/#&3 '#&#'%/ $#%&*%"% '%,#&3<'%,#&3 '+$-/.
6. Pera1alan %E!t+1a!+&
D%/%' '-/%()(%& .-"%'%/%& *-&*)&2% %(%& $#,-/-(,# ,%*)
'+$-/ *-"1%#( $%"# *#3% '+$-/ 2%&3 $# )5#. A.%(%0 AR(1)4 AR(1)AR(2)4
9
G)&%(%& M+$-/ )&*)(
P-"%'%/%&
%*%) AR(1)MA(1). S-*-/%0 ,%/%0 ,%*) $#%&*%"% (-*#3% '+$-/ *-",-1)*
*-/%0 $#*-&*)(%& '%(% '+$-/ 2%&3 *-".#/#0 $%.%* $#3)&%(%& ,-1%3%#
'+$-/ 2%&3 %(%& '-'."-$#(,# .-"'#&*%%& (+&,)'-& $#'%,% 2%&3
%(%& $%*%&3.
BAB II
ANALISIS 4 PEMBAHASAN
2.1 Anal+!+! Ata! Da!ar Te0r+
,oreast %$%/%0 '-").%(%& "%'%/%& %*%) -,*#'%,# *-"0%$%.
(-%$%& $#'%,% $-.%& ( G#*+,)$%"'+4 2002 : 120). P%$% $%,%"&2%
*-"$%.%* $)% .-&$-(%*%& )*%'% $%/%' .-"%'%/%& '-*+$-
()%&*#*%*#>. P-"*%'%4 .-&$-(%*%& time series 2%#*) '+$-/ 2%&3 *#$%(
'-'.-"0%*#(%& 0)1)&3%& ,-1%1 %(#1%* %*%) $-&3%& (%*% /%#& 0%,#/
.-"%'%/%& 0%&2% '-'.-"0%*#(%& (-=-&$")&3%& $%"# $%*% '%,% /%/)
2%&3 *-",-$#%. D%/%' .-&$-(%*%& #*) %(%& $#1%0%, *-&*%&3 *-(&#(
.-"%'%/%& $-&3%& metode trend 1%#( ,-=%"% /#&-%" '%).)&
()%$"%*#(. P-&$-(*%& (-$)%4 .-&$-(%*%& 2%&3 '-'.-"0%*#(%&
0)1)&3%& =%),* %&$ ->>-=* %*%) .-&$-(%*%& 2%&3 '-&5-/%,(%&
*-"5%$#&2% ,)%*) (-%$%%& +/-0 ,-1%1<,-1%1 *-"*-&*). T-(&#( 2%&3
$#3)&%(%& $-&3%& .-&$-(%*%& #*) $#(-&%/ ,-1%3%# metode korelasi
dan regresi ( S)3#*+ $%& S)'%"*+&+4 2004 : 9!).
S-/%#& #*) '-&)")* G#*+,)$%"'+ (2002)4 %$%.)& 3%'1%"%&
*-"0%$%. .-"'#&*%%& $#'%,% $-.%& )')'&2% $%.%* $#3%/# $%"#
.-&-/#*#%& $%& %&%/#,#, .%,%". B-1-"%.% ,)'1-" $%*% $%.%*
$#.-"3)&%(%& $%/%' '-/%()(%& %&%/#,% .-"'#&*%%& .%,%" *-",-1)*
2%#*) :
10
a. Pen/a.at K0n!$1en
K+&,)'-& .-'%(%# 1%"%&3 $%& 5%,% 2%&3 (#*% .%,%"(%& $%.%*
$#.-"3)&%(%& ,-1%3%# ,)'1-" $%*% %*%) #&>+"'%,# 2%&3 1%#( 1%3#
%&%/#,#, .%,%". M-&33%/# $%*% '-&3-&# .-&$%.%* (+&,)'-& #&#
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1.12!4)
Sumber : data diolah
B-"$%,%"(%& -,*#'%,# '+$-/ ARIMA $#%*%,4 )&*)( '-&=%"#
'+$-/ 2%&3 *-"1%#( *-"&2%*% .#/#0%&&2% 1-"1-$% $-&3%& -,*#'%,#
2%&3 $#/%()(%& .%$% .-&5)%/%& ,-.-$% '+*+"4 .%$% -,*#'%,#
.-&5)%/%& '+1#/ $#,#&#4 *-"&2%*% '+$-/ *-"1%#( 2%#*) '+$-/ ARIMA
(14040) '+$-/ #&# '-'-&)0# ,2%"%* )&*)( $#3)&%(%& ,-1%3%# '+$-/
."+2-(,# 2%&3 *-.%*4 (%"-&% '-'#/#(# &#/%# ,*%*#,*#( *-"1-,%"4 $%&
A(%#(- I&>+"'%*#+& ="#*-"#+& (AIF) .%/#&3 '#&#'%/. K%"-&% '+$-/
*-",-1)* '-'-&)0# ("#*-"#% '+$-/ B+A<J-&(#&, 2%&3 *-.%*4 '%(%
.%$% *%0%. ,-/%&5)*&2% '+$-/ *-",-1)* $%.%* $#3)&%(%& ,-1%3%#
'+$-/ .-"%'%/%& 2%&3 .%/#&3 ->#,#-&.
2.2.;. Gra*+k : Pera1alan Pen,$alan M0#+l /+ ta"$n 2002 /an
2010
D%"# *%1-/ $#%*%, *%'.%( ,)%*) (+&$#,# 2%&3 1-"1-$% $%/%'
."+2-(,# .-&5)%/%& '+1#/ $%& ,-.-$% '+*+" $#'%&% .%$% ."+2-(,#
.-&5)%/%& '+1#/ '-&)&5)(%& *"-&$ 2%&3 =-&$-")&3 '-&)")&. 7%/ #&#
$#,-1%1(%& ?+/%*#/#*%, $%*% 2%&3 =-&$-")&3 '-'.-"/#0%*(%& *"-&$
.-&)")&%& 2%&3 =)(). ,#3&#>#(%&. S-0#&33% '+$-/ ARIMA
20
'-'."+2-(,# .-&5)%/%& '+1#/ .%$% *%0)& 2009 $%& 20104
=-&$-")&3 %(%& '-&3%/%'# .-&)")&%& .-"'#&*%%&. D#,#,# /%#&&2%
5#(% (#*% '-/#0%* %&*%"% $%*% %(*)%/ 2%&3 $# &+*%,#(%& $-&3%& 3%"#,
1-"6%"&% 1#")4 *-"&2%*% '+$-/ Box-Jenkins ,-=%"% *-+"#*#, '-'-&)0#
("#*-"#%4 (%"-&% 3%"#, ."+2-(,# ,-/%/) '-&3#()*# 3%"#, %(*)%/ $%*%.
D-&3%& (%*% /%#& *"-&$ .-&)")&%& #&# $#,-1%1(%& 3-"%(%& $%*% 2%&3
=-&$-")&3 '-&3%/%'# .-&)")&%&.
2.2.) Ta#el ; Ha!+l E!t+1a!+ %Pr0>ek!+& Pen,$alan $n+t M0#+l
ta"$n 2002 /an 2010 /ala1 .r+0/e #$lanan
TAHU
N BULAN
HASIL
PRO?EKSI
2002 JANUARI
1;.59:99
EBUARI
1;.50;91
MARET
1;.40914
APRIL
1;.;14;9
MEI
1;.21959
JUNI
1;.124:1
JULI
1;.0;004
AGUSTUS
12.9;529

SEPTEMBE
R
12.:4049
OKTOBER
12.!45!1
NOVEMBER
12.95094
DESEMBER
12.55919
2010 JANUARI
12.491;9
EBUARI
12.;9991
MARET
12.2!1:4
APRIL
12.1!!09
MEI
12.0:229
JUNI
11.9:!51
JULI
11.:92!4
AGUSTUS
11.!9!99

SEPTEMBE
R
11.!0;19
OKTOBER
11.90:41
NOVEMBER
11.51;94
DESEMBER
11.41::9
21
Sumber : data diolah dengan Soft!are evie!s 2+%
B-"$%,%"(%& $%*% ."+2-(,# .-&5)%/%& '+1#/ $#%*%, $%.%*
$#/#0%* ,)%*) (+&$#,# 2%&3 1-"1-$% $-&3%& .-"%'%/%& 2%&3
$#/%()(%& *-"0%$%. .-&5)%/%& ,-.-$% '+*+". 7%/ #&# $#,-1%1(%&
'-*-$- ARIMA %$%/%0 '-*+$- 2%&3 '-'1%=% .-"3-"%(%&
(?+/%*#/#*%,) (-=-&$")&3%& $%*%4 ,-0#&33% '-*+$- #&# =-&$-")&3
/-1#0 %()"%* $%/%' '-'1-"#(%& 0%,#/ ."+2-(,#4 1%#( (-=-&$")&3%&
."+2-(,# .-&#&3(%*%& .-"'#&*%%& %*%).)& .-&)")&%& 5)'/%0
.-"'#&*%%& (+&,)'-&.
D%*% ."+2-(,# 2%&3 '-&3%/%'# .-&)")&%& .-"'#&*%%& %(%&
M+1#/ #&# '-'1-"#(%& ,)%*) #&>+"'%,# 1%3# PT K"#$% D#&%'#(
A)*+&+,% %3%" '%'.) '-'1%=% ,#*)%,#4 '-&3%.% %$%
(-=-&$")&3%& .-&)")&%& ,-.-"*# (+&$#,# $#%*%,. /)(*)%,# 2%&3
*-"5%$# #&# 5)3% '-'1-"#(%& #&>+"'%,# %3%" P-"),%0%%& .-"/)
'-'.-"*#'1%&3%& .-"-&=%&%%& ."+$)(,#4 ,-"*% '-&3#&*-&,#>(%&
.+/% .-'%,%"%&4 %3%" 5%&3%& ,%'.%# (+&$#,# #&# 1-&%"<1-&%" *-"5%$#.
22
BAB III
PENUTUP
5.1 Ke!+1.$lan
B-"$%,%"(%& 0%,#/ %&%/#,#, $#%*%, '%(% %$% 1-1%"%.% 0%/
'-&$%,%" 2%&3 $%.%* '-&5%$# ,#'.)/%& $%/%' (%,), #&# 2%#*) :
1. K-$)% $%*% 1%#( $%*% .-&5)%/%& ,-.-$% '+*+" '%).)& $%*%
.-&5)%/%& '+1#/4 ,%'%<,%'% *#$%( ,*%,#+&-" .%$% $"%5%* (0)4
,-0#&33% (-$)% $%*% *-",-1)* *-"/-1#0 $%0)/) 0%"), $#$#>-"-&,#
.%$% $"%5%* (I)4 $%& 0%,#/&2%4 (-$)% $%*% .-&5)%/%& *-",-1)*
,*%,#+&-" .%$% $"%5%* .-"*%'% ,-0#&33% -,*#'%,# B+A<J-&(#&,
$%.%* '-'-&)0# ("#*-"#%.
2. M+$-/ 2%&3 *-"1%#( .%$% 0%,#/ *-&*%*#> -,*#'%,# '+$-/
.-&5)%/%& ,-.-$% '+*+" %$%/%04 ARIMA (14041)4 ,-'-&*"%
'+$-/ *-"1%#( .%$% 0%,#/ -,*#'%,# .-&5)%/%& M+1#/ %$%/%0
ARIMA (14040).
3. 7%,#/ ."+2-(,# .-&5)%/%& 2009 $%& 2010 ,-.-$% '+*+" $%/%'
."#+$- 1)/%&%& '-&)&5)(%& *-"&$ .+,#*#> ('-&#&3(%*). D# '%&%
.%$% 1)/%& 5%&)%"# 2009 .-&5)%/%& ,-.-$% '+*+" %$%/%0
,-1-,%" 4;1 )&#*4 $%& *-"), '-&3%/%'# .-&#&3(%*%& ,-*#%.
1)/%&&2% 4 0#&33% $# 1)/%& D-,-'1-" 2009 .-&5)%/%&
23
'-&=%.%# %&3(% ,-1-,%" 44: )&#*. S-'-&*%"% $# 1)/%& J%&)%"#
2010 .-&5)%/%& ,-.-$% '+*+" %$%/%0 ,-1-,%" 449 )&#*4 $%&
*-"), '-&3%/%'# .-&#&3(%*%& .-&5)%/%& 0#&33% $# %(0#" 1)/%&
D-,-'1-" 20104 2%#*) ,-1-,%" 49! )&#* ,-.-$% '+*+". R%*%<
"%*% .-&#&3(%*%& .-&5)%/%& ,-*#%. 1)/%&&2% %$%/%0 1 ,%'.%# 2
)&#* (-&$%"%%& 1-"'+*+".
4. S-'-&*%"% 0%,#/ ."+2-(,# .-&5)%/%& 2009 $%& 2010 )&*)(
$-?#,# '+1#/ '-&)&5)(%& *"-&$ &-3%*#> (.-&)")&%&). A"*#&2%
%$% (-=-&$")&3%& ()%* 1%06% .-"'#&*%%& *-"0%$%. M+1#/
%(%& 1-"()"%&34 0%,#/ ."+2-(,# '-&)&5)(%& $# 1)/%& 5%&)%"#
2009 .-"'#&*%%& *-"0%$%. '+1#/ %$%/%0 ,-1-,%" 1; )&#*4 $%&
*-"), '-&3%/%'# .-&)")&%& ,-*#%. 1)/%&&2%4 0#&33% $# 1)/%&
D-,-'1-" 20094 %&3(% .-"'#&*%%& '-&)")& ,-1-,%" 12 )&#*
(-&$%"%%&. D#*%0)& 2010 .%$% 1)/%& 5%&)%"# .-&5)%/%& '%,#0
1-"%$% .%$% %&3(% 2%&3 ,%'% ,-.-"*# $# 1)/%& 5%&)%"# 2009
2%#*) ,-1-,%" 12 )&#* (-&$%"%%&4 .-&)")&%& ')/%# *-"5%$# $#
1)/%& J)&# 2010 2%#*) ,-1-,%" 11 )&#* '+1#/. P-&)")&%& $#
1)/%& J)&# #&# (-')&3(#&%& %(%& 1-"/%&3,)&3 ,%'.%# $# %(0#"
1)/%& $-,-'1-" 2010 2%#*) ,-1-,%" 11 )&#* (-&$%"%%&
( M+1#/).
5.2 Saran
B-"$%,%"(%& (-,#'.)/%& $#%*%, '%(% $%.%* $#,%"%&(%&
1-1-"%.% "-(+'-&$%,# ,)1,*%&,#%/ 1%3# PT K"#$% D#&%'#( A)*+&+,%
NTB.
1. PT K"#$% D#&%'#( A)*+&+,% ,-1%#(&2% '-'.-",#%.(%& $#"#
$-&3%& (-')&3(#&%& *-"5%$#&2% .-&)")&%& .-&5)%/%&
(-&$%"%%& (M+1#/)4 )&*)( '-&3%&*#,#.%,# (+&$#,# #&# '%(%
24
$#.-"/)(%& .-"-&=%%&%%& (%.%,#*%, ."+$)(,# 2%&3 +.*#'%/4
,#,*-' .-'%,%"%& 2%&3 ->#,#-& $-&3%& /-1#0 '-&(%&(%&
."+'+,# *-"0%$%. $%& %$?-"*-&,# )&*)( (-&$%"%%&.
2. M%&%5-'-& PT K"#$% D#&%'#( A)*+&+,% .-"/) '-/%()(%&
,)"?-# K+&,)'-&4 )&*)( '-&3-(./+"%,# (-1)*)0%& ,-"*%
."->-"-&,# (+&,)'-& *-"0%$%. ."+$)( 2%&3 $# #&3#&(%&4
*-")*%'% *-"(%#* $-&3%& $-,%#& (-&$%"%%& $%& ,-1%3%#&2%.
3. P-&$-(%*%& ,=%"% ()%/#*%*#>.)& $#.-"/)(%& )&*)( '-"%'%/(%&
(-%$%%& $# *%0)& 2009 $%& 20104 *-0&#( D-/.0# $%&
.-&$-(%*%& *-"0%$%. .-/%&33%& %$%/%0 0%/ .-&*#&34 0%/ #&#
$#'%(,)$(%& )&*)( '-'.-"()%* 0%,#/ .-"%'%/%& 2%&3
,#>%*&2% ()%&*#*%*#> *-",-1)*. O/-0 (%"-&% #*) '%&%5-'-& .-"/)
'-&=%"# ,#%.% .#0%( 2%&3 (+'.-*-& )&*)( '-/%()(%&
.-"%'%/%& .-&5)%/%&4 ,-0#&33% %(%& ,%&3%* '-'1%&*) $%/%'
'-'1)%* (-.)*),%& ,*"%*-3#,.
4. D-&3%& $#(-*%0)#&2% 5)'/%0 .-"'#&*%%& ,-.-$% '+*+" $%&
M+1#/ $# *%0)& 2009 $%& 20104 '%(% PT ("#$% D#&%'#(
A)*+&+,% NTB4 .-"/) ,-=%"% '%*%&3 '-'.-",#%.(%&4 1-"%.%
#&?-&*+"# 2%&3 0%"), $#,-$#%(%& 4 ,-0#&33% *#$%( '-/-1#0#
(%.%,#*%, .-"'#&*%%& (+&,)'-&.
25
DA<TAR PUSTAKA
B%&( I&$+&-,#% $%& BP2E4 2009. L%.+"%& P-&-/#*#%& M+$-/ I&>/%,#
N),% T-&33%"% B%"%*. BP2E L: NTB
G#*+,)$%"'+ I&$"#2+4 2002. M%&%5-'-& O.-"%,#4 -$#,# (-$)%. BPE
Y+32%(%"*% : Y+32%(%"*%.
K)&=+"+ M)$"%5%$4 2004. M-*+$- K)%&*#*%*#>4 T-+"# $%&A./#(%,# )&*)(
B#,&#, $%& E(+&+'#. AMP YKPN : Y+32%(%"*%.
K)&=+"+ M)$"%5%$ $%& K%"$+2+ 7%$#4 2001. A&%/#,#, K)", V%/%,
$-&3%& P-&$-(%*%& B+A<J-&(#&, : J)"&%/.
S)3#*+ P)$5+ $%& S)'%"*+&+. M%&%5-'-& O.-"%,#+&%/. E$#,#
.-"*%'%. B%2)'-$#% P)1/#,0#&3 : J%6% *#')" ( M%/%&3).
W#$%"5+&+ A3),4 2005. E(+&+'-*"#(%4 T-+"# $%& A./#(%,# )&*)(
-(+&+'# $%& B#,&#,. E(+&-,#% : Y+32%(%"*%
26
LAMPIRAN 1. DATA PENJUALAN DEVISI SEPEDA MOTOR DAN
MOBIL DI PT. KRIDA DINAMIK AUTONOSA
27
LAMPIRAN 2. UNTUK PRO?EKSI PENJUALAN UNI T MOTOR
TAHUN 2002 DAN 2010 DALAM PRIODE
BULANAN
1. UJI STASIONERITAS DATA
A. TAHAP LEVEL
ADF Test Statistic -2.450541 1 !ritica" #a"$e% -3.4831
5 !ritica" #a"$e -2.8844
10 !ritica" #a"$e -2.5788
%&ac'i(()( critica" *a"$es +)r re,ecti)( )+ -./)t-esis )+ a $(it r))t.
A$01e(te2 Dic3e.-F$""er Test E4$ati)(
De/e(2e(t #aria5"e6 D7PENJUALAN8
&et-)26 Least S4$ares
Date6 03919910 Ti1e6 01650
Sa1/"e7a2,$ste286 1998606 2008611
:(c"$2e2 )5ser*ati)(s6 126 a+ter a2,$sti(0 e(2/)i(ts
#aria5"e !)e++icie(t St2. Err)r t-Statistic Pr)5.
PENJUALAN7-18 -0.122769 0.050099 -2.450541 0.0157
D7PENJUALAN7-188 -0.020124 0.100243 -0.200756 0.8412
D7PENJUALAN7-288 -0.142913 0.105888 -1.349668 0.1797
D7PENJUALAN7-388 0.018899 0.106511 0.177438 0.8595
D7PENJUALAN7-488 0.002123 0.104448 0.020325 0.9838
! 149.1563 65.95654 2.261433 0.0255
;-s4$are2 0.083893 &ea( 2e/e(2e(t *ar 0.182540
A2,$ste2 ;-s4$are2 0.045722 S.D. 2e/e(2e(t *ar 357.5510
28
S.E. )+ re0ressi)( 349.2814 A3ai3e i(+) criteri)( 14.59608
S$1 s4$are2 resi2 14639704 Sc-<ar= criteri)( 14.73114
L)0 "i3e"i-))2 -913.5531 F-statistic 2.197807
D$r5i(->ats)( stat 1.902214 Pr)57F-statistic8 0.058903
B. DE<ERENSI %I&
ADF Test Statistic -5.165145 1 !ritica" #a"$e% -3.4835
5 !ritica" #a"$e -2.8845
10 !ritica" #a"$e -2.5789
%&ac'i(()( critica" *a"$es +)r re,ecti)( )+ -./)t-esis )+ a $(it r))t.
A$01e(te2 Dic3e.-F$""er Test E4$ati)(
De/e(2e(t #aria5"e6 D7PENJUALAN?28
&et-)26 Least S4$ares
Date6 03919910 Ti1e6 01653
Sa1/"e7a2,$ste286 1998607 2008611
:(c"$2e2 )5ser*ati)(s6 125 a+ter a2,$sti(0 e(2/)i(ts
#aria5"e !)e++icie(t St2. Err)r t-Statistic Pr)5.
D7PENJUALAN7-188 -1.439042 0.278606 -5.165145 0.0000
D7PENJUALAN7-18?28 0.341325 0.245027 1.393011 0.1662
D7PENJUALAN7-28?28 0.123910 0.207272 0.597812 0.5511
D7PENJUALAN7-38?28 0.082813 0.159978 0.517652 0.6057
D7PENJUALAN7-48?28 0.031394 0.105355 0.297983 0.7662
! 6.916694 32.38611 0.213570 0.8312
;-s4$are2 0.514771 &ea( 2e/e(2e(t *ar -11.46400
A2,$ste2 ;-s4$are2 0.494383 S.D. 2e/e(2e(t *ar 505.2208
S.E. )+ re0ressi)( 359.2460 A3ai3e i(+) criteri)( 14.65270
S$1 s4$are2 resi2 15357862 Sc-<ar= criteri)( 14.78846
L)0 "i3e"i-))2 -909.7938 F-statistic 25.24902
D$r5i(->ats)( stat 1.896754 Pr)57F-statistic8 0.000000
8. HASIL ESTIMASI 5 MODEL
MODEL I AR%1&
De/e(2e(t #aria5"e6 D7PENJUALAN8
&et-)26 Least S4$ares
Date6 03919910 Ti1e6 01651
Sa1/"e7a2,$ste286 1998603 2008611
:(c"$2e2 )5ser*ati)(s6 129 a+ter a2,$sti(0 e(2/)i(ts
!)(*er0e(ce ac-ie*e2 a+ter 3 iterati)(s
#aria5"e !)e++icie(t St2. Err)r t-Statistic Pr)5.
! 1.600501 29.52559 0.054207 0.9569
A;718 -0.056708 0.093770 -0.604756 0.5464
;-s4$are2 0.002871 &ea( 2e/e(2e(t *ar 1.201550
A2,$ste2 ;-s4$are2 -0.004980 S.D. 2e/e(2e(t *ar 353.4049
S.E. )+ re0ressi)( 354.2838 A3ai3e i(+) criteri)( 14.59346
29
S$1 s4$are2 resi2 15940661 Sc-<ar= criteri)( 14.63779
L)0 "i3e"i-))2 -939.2779 F-statistic 0.365730
D$r5i(->ats)( stat 1.886762 Pr)57F-statistic8 0.546420
:(*erte2 A; ;))ts -.06
MODEL II AR%1& AR%2&
De/e(2e(t #aria5"e6 D7PENJUALAN8
&et-)26 Least S4$ares
Date6 03919910 Ti1e6 01652
Sa1/"e7a2,$ste286 1998604 2008611
:(c"$2e2 )5ser*ati)(s6 128 a+ter a2,$sti(0 e(2/)i(ts
!)(*er0e(ce ac-ie*e2 a+ter 3 iterati)(s
#aria5"e !)e++icie(t St2. Err)r t-Statistic Pr)5.
! 4.300139 23.94166 0.179609 0.8578
A;718 -0.092033 0.095161 -0.967135 0.3353
A;728 -0.206263 0.099923 -2.064229 0.0411
;-s4$are2 0.035610 &ea( 2e/e(2e(t *ar 0.750000
A2,$ste2 ;-s4$are2 0.020180 S.D. 2e/e(2e(t *ar 354.7562
S.E. )+ re0ressi)( 351.1584 A3ai3e i(+) criteri)( 14.58351
S$1 s4$are2 resi2 15414031 Sc-<ar= criteri)( 14.65035
L)0 "i3e"i-))2 -930.3447 F-statistic 2.307836
D$r5i(->ats)( stat 1.901315 Pr)57F-statistic8 0.103701
:(*erte2 A; ;))ts -.05 -.45i -.05@.45i
MODEL 5 AR%1& MA%1&
De/e(2e(t #aria5"e6 D7PENJUALAN8
&et-)26 Least S4$ares
Date6 03919910 Ti1e6 01653
Sa1/"e7a2,$ste286 1998603 2008611
:(c"$2e2 )5ser*ati)(s6 129 a+ter a2,$sti(0 e(2/)i(ts
!)(*er0e(ce ac-ie*e2 a+ter 16 iterati)(s
Aac3cast6 1998602
#aria5"e !)e++icie(t St2. Err)r t-Statistic Pr)5.
! 11.69385 5.015577 2.331506 0.0213
A;718 0.719726 0.075078 9.586392 0.0000
&A718 -0.970116 0.024704 -39.26990 0.0000
30
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
PENJUALAN PENJUALANF
;-s4$are2 0.092714 &ea( 2e/e(2e(t *ar 1.201550
A2,$ste2 ;-s4$are2 0.078313 S.D. 2e/e(2e(t *ar 353.4049
S.E. )+ re0ressi)( 339.2848 A3ai3e i(+) criteri)( 14.51454
S$1 s4$are2 resi2 14504385 Sc-<ar= criteri)( 14.58105
L)0 "i3e"i-))2 -933.1877 F-statistic 6.437876
D$r5i(->ats)( stat 1.731213 Pr)57F-statistic8 0.002177
:(*erte2 A; ;))ts .72
:(*erte2 &A ;))ts .97
KURVA ESTIMASI PENJUALAN MOTOR
HASIL PRO?EKSI4 <ORE8ASTING 200232010
PENJUALAN PENJUALANF
607.0000 607.0000
199.0000 199.0000
258.0000 223.8282
306.0000 224.1115
331.0000 225.7867
397.0000 227.3829
275.0000 228.9837
310.0000 230.5842
337.0000 232.1847
435.0000 233.7852
393.0000 235.3857
513.0000 236.9862
339.0000 238.5867
299.0000 240.1872
31
398.0000 241.7877
399.0000 243.3882
292.0000 244.9887
232.0000 246.5892
352.0000 248.1897
437.0000 249.7902
517.0000 251.3907
584.0000 252.9912
596.0000 254.5917
743.0000 256.1922
190.0000 257.7927
416.0000 259.3932
510.0000 260.9937
352.0000 262.5942
425.0000 264.1947
416.0000 265.7952
435.0000 267.3957
573.0000 268.9962
571.0000 270.5967
486.0000 272.1972
506.0000 273.7977
462.0000 275.3982
470.0000 276.9987
625.0000 278.5992
677.0000 280.1997
665.0000 281.8002
724.0000 283.4007
684.0000 285.0012
901.0000 286.6017
840.0000 288.2022
542.0000 289.8027
900.0000 291.4032
822.0000 293.0037
601.0000 294.6042
856.0000 296.2047
952.0000 297.8052
953.0000 299.4057
1085.000 301.0062
1294.000 302.6067
1116.000 304.2072
1355.000 305.8077
1412.000 307.4082
823.0000 309.0087
1347.000 310.6092
1653.000 312.2097
988.0000 313.8102
1010.000 315.4107
784.0000 317.0112
838.0000 318.6117
949.0000 320.2122
1142.000 321.8127
32
1327.000 323.4132
1469.000 325.0137
1745.000 326.6142
1672.000 328.2147
1659.000 329.8152
1483.000 331.4157
1423.000 333.0162
1042.000 334.6167
1055.000 336.2172
1365.000 337.8177
1887.000 339.4182
2528.000 341.0187
3062.000 342.6192
2635.000 344.2197
2552.000 345.8202
2441.000 347.4207
2461.000 349.0212
1494.000 350.6217
2002.000 352.2222
1531.000 353.8227
1299.000 355.4232
1525.000 357.0237
1560.000 358.6242
1586.000 360.2247
1300.000 361.8252
1678.000 363.4257
2275.000 365.0262
1502.000 366.6267
1402.000 368.2272
770.0000 369.8277
1043.000 371.4282
717.0000 373.0287
742.0000 374.6292
746.0000 376.2297
794.0000 377.8302
1096.000 379.4307
1197.000 381.0312
1421.000 382.6317
1410.000 384.2322
2633.000 385.8327
2419.000 387.4332
1468.000 389.0337
1815.000 390.6342
1294.000 392.2347
1064.000 393.8352
865.0000 395.4357
1157.000 397.0362
1698.000 398.6367
1901.000 400.2372
1541.000 401.8377
1767.000 403.4382
33
1617.000 405.0387
1807.000 406.6392
2141.000 408.2397
2254.000 409.8402
1810.000 411.4407
1802.000 413.0412
2029.000 414.6417
2410.000 416.2422
2427.000 417.8427
1948.000 419.4432
1914.000 421.0437
2001.000 422.6442
2927.000 424.2447
1721.000 425.8452
354.0000 427.4457
NA 429.0462
NA 430.6467
NA 432.2472
NA 433.8477
NA 435.4482
NA 437.0487
NA 438.6492
NA 440.2497
NA 441.8502
NA 443.4507
NA 445.0512
NA 446.6517
NA 448.2522
NA 449.8527
NA 451.4532
NA 453.0537
NA 454.6542
NA 456.2547
NA 457.8552
NA 459.4557
NA 461.0562
NA 462.6567
NA 464.2572
NA 465.8577
NA 467.4582
8OLEOGRAM STATINERITAS DATA TRINGKAT LEVEL
Date6 03919910 Ti1e6 01658
Sa1/"e6 1998601 2010612
:(c"$2e2 )5ser*ati)(s6 131
A$t)c)rre"ati)( Partia" !)rre"ati)( A! PA! B-Stat Pr)5
.C%%%%%%%C .C%%%%%%%C 1 0.863 0.863 99.832 0.000
.C%%%%%% C .C. C 2 0.753 0.032 176.43 0.000
34
.C%%%%% C .C% C 3 0.698 0.160 242.68 0.000
.C%%%%% C .C. C 4 0.630 -0.042 297.20 0.000
.C%%%% C .C. C 5 0.567 0.012 341.70 0.000
.C%%%% C .C. C 6 0.509 -0.024 377.81 0.000
.C%%%% C .C% C 7 0.486 0.121 411.03 0.000
.C%%%% C .C% C 8 0.487 0.110 444.68 0.000
.C%%%% C .C% C 9 0.509 0.164 481.75 0.000
.C%%%% C .C. C 10 0.516 0.018 520.13 0.000
.C%%%% C .C. C 11 0.500 -0.035 556.39 0.000
.C%%%% C .C. C 12 0.492 0.014 591.82 0.000
.C%%%% C %C. C 13 0.464 -0.068 623.61 0.000
.C%%% C .C. C 14 0.435 0.020 651.83 0.000
.C%%% C %C. C 15 0.370 -0.154 672.42 0.000
.C%% C .C. C 16 0.322 0.028 688.09 0.000
.C%% C %C. C 17 0.261 -0.158 698.50 0.000
.C%% C .C. C 18 0.224 0.054 706.20 0.000
.C%% C .C% C 19 0.230 0.085 714.45 0.000
.C%% C .C% C 20 0.243 0.097 723.75 0.000
.C%% C .C. C 21 0.265 0.059 734.88 0.000
.C%% C .C. C 22 0.271 -0.041 746.62 0.000
.C%% C .C% C 23 0.295 0.077 760.70 0.000
.C%% C .C. C 24 0.309 -0.019 776.22 0.000
.C%% C %C. C 25 0.253 -0.181 786.75 0.000
.C%% C .C% C 26 0.241 0.150 796.38 0.000
.C%% C .C. C 27 0.227 0.015 805.04 0.000
.C%% C .C. C 28 0.199 -0.008 811.74 0.000
.C% C %C. C 29 0.151 -0.110 815.66 0.000
.C% C %C. C 30 0.109 -0.085 817.69 0.000
.C% C .C% C 31 0.106 0.073 819.65 0.000
.C% C .C. C 32 0.117 0.018 822.04 0.000
.C% C .C. C 33 0.130 0.031 825.07 0.000
.C% C .C. C 34 0.139 0.022 828.52 0.000
.C% C .C% C 35 0.168 0.073 833.67 0.000
.C% C .C. C 36 0.189 -0.032 840.22 0.000
8OLEOGRAM STATINERITAS DATA DI<ERENSI %I&
Date6 03919910 Ti1e6 01659
Sa1/"e6 1998601 2010612
:(c"$2e2 )5ser*ati)(s6 130
A$t)c)rre"ati)( Partia" !)rre"ati)( A! PA! B-Stat Pr)5
.C. C .C. C 1 -0.050 -0.050 0.3306 0.565
%C. C %C. C 2 -0.149 -0.152 3.2955 0.192
.C. C .C. C 3 0.001 -0.015 3.2958 0.348
.C. C .C. C 4 -0.019 -0.044 3.3460 0.502
.C. C .C. C 5 -0.015 -0.021 3.3752 0.642
%C. C %C. C 6 -0.117 -0.133 5.2775 0.509
%C. C %C. C 7 -0.092 -0.119 6.4651 0.487
%C. C %C. C 8 -0.098 -0.164 7.8245 0.451
35
.C. C .C. C 9 0.051 -0.011 8.1985 0.514
.C% C .C. C 10 0.089 0.036 9.3234 0.502
.C. C .C. C 11 -0.006 -0.010 9.3295 0.592
.C% C .C. C 12 0.066 0.056 9.9583 0.620
.C. C .C. C 13 -0.015 -0.041 9.9895 0.695
.C% C .C% C 14 0.135 0.125 12.683 0.552
.C. C %C. C 15 -0.056 -0.061 13.154 0.590
.C. C .C% C 16 0.032 0.093 13.304 0.650
%C. C %C. C 17 -0.073 -0.066 14.117 0.659
%C. C %C. C 18 -0.177 -0.137 18.925 0.396
.C. C %C. C 19 -0.048 -0.104 19.279 0.439
.C. C %C. C 20 -0.046 -0.090 19.602 0.483
.C% C .C. C 21 0.073 0.037 20.452 0.493
%C. C %C. C 22 -0.060 -0.085 21.016 0.520
.C% C .C. C 23 0.074 0.055 21.893 0.527
.C%% C .C% C 24 0.230 0.167 30.455 0.170
%C. C %C. C 25 -0.112 -0.125 32.487 0.144
.C. C .C. C 26 0.018 -0.012 32.541 0.176
.C. C .C. C 27 -0.008 -0.030 32.551 0.212
.C% C .C% C 28 0.076 0.094 33.526 0.217
.C. C .C. C 29 -0.029 0.035 33.669 0.252
%C. C %C. C 30 -0.160 -0.115 38.079 0.148
%C. C .C. C 31 -0.060 -0.041 38.705 0.161
.C. C .C. C 32 -0.016 -0.026 38.752 0.191
.C. C %C. C 33 0.019 -0.060 38.817 0.224
%C. C %C. C 34 -0.084 -0.098 40.077 0.219
.C. C .C. C 35 0.051 0.005 40.543 0.239
.C% C .C. C 36 0.079 0.016 41.693 0.237
RUMUS S?NTA@ DI SO<TAARE EVIEAS UNTUK ESTIMASI
PENJUALAN MOTOR
WORKILE M 199::1 200::11
DATA PENJUALAN
EIUATION EI1.LS D(PENJUALAN) F AR(1)
S7OW EI1
EIUATION EI2.LS D(PENJUALAN) F AR(1) AR(2)
S7OW EI2
EIUATION EI;.LS D(PENJUALAN) F AR(1) MA(1)
S7OW EI;
EIUATION EI;.LS D(PENJUALAN) F AR(1) MA(1)
EJPAND 199::1 2010:12
SMPL 199::1 2010:12
OREFAST PENJUALAN
PLOT PENJUALAN PENJUALAN
S7OW PENJUALAN PENJUALAN
36
LAMPIRAN 5. UNTUK PRO?EKSI PENJUALAN UNI T MOBIL
TAHUN 2002 DAN 2010 DALAM PRIODE
BULANAN
1. UJI STASIONERITAS DATA
A. TAHAP LEVEL
ADF Test Statistic -3.210137 1 !ritica" #a"$e% -3.5153
5 !ritica" #a"$e -2.8986
10 !ritica" #a"$e -2.5863
%&ac'i(()( critica" *a"$es +)r re,ecti)( )+ -./)t-esis )+ a $(it r))t.
A$01e(te2 Dic3e.-F$""er Test E4$ati)(
De/e(2e(t #aria5"e6 D7PENJUALAN8
&et-)26 Least S4$ares
Date6 03919910 Ti1e6 02616
Sa1/"e7a2,$ste286 2002606 2008611
:(c"$2e2 )5ser*ati)(s6 78 a+ter a2,$sti(0 e(2/)i(ts
#aria5"e !)e++icie(t St2. Err)r t-Statistic Pr)5.
PENJUALAN7-18 -0.420585 0.131018 -3.210137 0.0020
D7PENJUALAN7-188 -0.450498 0.144848 -3.110143 0.0027
D7PENJUALAN7-288 0.129260 0.155513 0.831186 0.4086
D7PENJUALAN7-388 0.321833 0.152884 2.105079 0.0388
D7PENJUALAN7-488 0.158170 0.117938 1.341130 0.1841
! 16.49283 5.625447 2.931825 0.0045
;-s4$are2 0.511083 &ea( 2e/e(2e(t *ar -0.205128
A2,$ste2 ;-s4$are2 0.477130 S.D. 2e/e(2e(t *ar 27.12949
S.E. )+ re0ressi)( 19.61727 A3ai3e i(+) criteri)( 8.864501
S$1 s4$are2 resi2 27708.28 Sc-<ar= criteri)( 9.045786
L)0 "i3e"i-))2 -339.7155 F-statistic 15.05283
D$r5i(->ats)( stat 1.963514 Pr)57F-statistic8 0.000000
B. DE<ERENSI %I&
ADF Test Statistic -4.158986 1 !ritica" #a"$e% -3.5164
5 !ritica" #a"$e -2.8991
10 !ritica" #a"$e -2.5865
%&ac'i(()( critica" *a"$es +)r re,ecti)( )+ -./)t-esis )+ a $(it r))t.
37
A$01e(te2 Dic3e.-F$""er Test E4$ati)(
De/e(2e(t #aria5"e6 D7PENJUALAN?28
&et-)26 Least S4$ares
Date6 03919910 Ti1e6 02616
Sa1/"e7a2,$ste286 2002607 2008611
:(c"$2e2 )5ser*ati)(s6 77 a+ter a2,$sti(0 e(2/)i(ts
#aria5"e !)e++icie(t St2. Err)r t-Statistic Pr)5.
D7PENJUALAN7-188 -1.815924 0.436627 -4.158986 0.0001
D7PENJUALAN7-18?28 0.075326 0.394773 0.190808 0.8492
D7PENJUALAN7-28?28 0.007389 0.333321 0.022167 0.9824
D7PENJUALAN7-38?28 0.132085 0.244846 0.539463 0.5913
D7PENJUALAN7-48?28 0.099410 0.120436 0.825419 0.4119
! -0.066154 2.400433 -0.027559 0.9781
;-s4$are2 0.831065 &ea( 2e/e(2e(t *ar -0.272727
A2,$ste2 ;-s4$are2 0.819168 S.D. 2e/e(2e(t *ar 49.42954
S.E. )+ re0ressi)( 21.01960 A3ai3e i(+) criteri)( 9.003506
S$1 s4$are2 resi2 31369.48 Sc-<ar= criteri)( 9.186141
L)0 "i3e"i-))2 -340.6350 F-statistic 69.85584
D$r5i(->ats)( stat 1.974304 Pr)57F-statistic8 0.000000
8. HASIL ESTIMASI 5 MODEL
MODEL I AR%1&
De/e(2e(t #aria5"e6 D7PENJUALAN8
&et-)26 Least S4$ares
Date6 03919910 Ti1e6 02617
Sa1/"e7a2,$ste286 2002603 2008611
:(c"$2e2 )5ser*ati)(s6 81 a+ter a2,$sti(0 e(2/)i(ts
!)(*er0e(ce ac-ie*e2 a+ter 3 iterati)(s
#aria5"e !)e++icie(t St2. Err)r t-Statistic Pr)5.
! -0.094775 1.381014 -0.068627 0.9455
A;718 -0.647499 0.086297 -7.503111 0.0000
;-s4$are2 0.416098 &ea( 2e/e(2e(t *ar -0.148148
A2,$ste2 ;-s4$are2 0.408707 S.D. 2e/e(2e(t *ar 26.62945
S.E. )+ re0ressi)( 20.47687 A3ai3e i(+) criteri)( 8.900851
S$1 s4$are2 resi2 33124.89 Sc-<ar= criteri)( 8.959973
L)0 "i3e"i-))2 -358.4845 F-statistic 56.29668
D$r5i(->ats)( stat 2.171657 Pr)57F-statistic8 0.000000
:(*erte2 A; ;))ts -.65
MODEL II AR%1& AR%2&
De/e(2e(t #aria5"e6 D7PENJUALAN8
&et-)26 Least S4$ares
Date6 03919910 Ti1e6 02618
Sa1/"e7a2,$ste286 2002604 2008611
:(c"$2e2 )5ser*ati)(s6 80 a+ter a2,$sti(0 e(2/)i(ts
38
0
40
80
120
160
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
PENJUALAN PENJUALANF
!)(*er0e(ce ac-ie*e2 a+ter 3 iterati)(s
#aria5"e !)e++icie(t St2. Err)r t-Statistic Pr)5.
! 0.024768 1.188702 0.020836 0.9834
A;718 -0.757640 0.114144 -6.637556 0.0000
A;728 -0.163026 0.114117 -1.428593 0.1572
;-s4$are2 0.433932 &ea( 2e/e(2e(t *ar -0.100000
A2,$ste2 ;-s4$are2 0.419229 S.D. 2e/e(2e(t *ar 26.79392
S.E. )+ re0ressi)( 20.41919 A3ai3e i(+) criteri)( 8.907606
S$1 s4$are2 resi2 32104.64 Sc-<ar= criteri)( 8.996932
L)0 "i3e"i-))2 -353.3043 F-statistic 29.51307
D$r5i(->ats)( stat 1.932172 Pr)57F-statistic8 0.000000
:(*erte2 A; ;))ts -.38 -.14i -.38@.14i
MODEL 5 AR%1& MA%1&
De/e(2e(t #aria5"e6 D7PENJUALAN8
&et-)26 Least S4$ares
Date6 03919910 Ti1e6 02619
Sa1/"e7a2,$ste286 2002603 2008611
:(c"$2e2 )5ser*ati)(s6 81 a+ter a2,$sti(0 e(2/)i(ts
!)(*er0e(ce ac-ie*e2 a+ter 8 iterati)(s
Aac3cast6 2002602
#aria5"e !)e++icie(t St2. Err)r t-Statistic Pr)5.
! -0.026078 1.191941 -0.021879 0.9826
A;718 -0.541174 0.144174 -3.753619 0.0003
&A718 -0.192516 0.170747 -1.127497 0.2630
;-s4$are2 0.428062 &ea( 2e/e(2e(t *ar -0.148148
A2,$ste2 ;-s4$are2 0.413397 S.D. 2e/e(2e(t *ar 26.62945
S.E. )+ re0ressi)( 20.39550 A3ai3e i(+) criteri)( 8.904839
S$1 s4$are2 resi2 32446.16 Sc-<ar= criteri)( 8.993523
L)0 "i3e"i-))2 -357.6460 F-statistic 29.18922
D$r5i(->ats)( stat 1.982077 Pr)57F-statistic8 0.000000
:(*erte2 A; ;))ts -.54
:(*erte2 &A ;))ts .19
KURVA ESTIMASI PENJUALAN MOBIL
39
HASIL PRO?EKSI4 <ORE8ASTING 200232010
PENJUALAN PENJUALANF
30.00000 30.00000
16.00000 16.00000
12.00000 24.90885
14.00000 18.98423
20.00000 22.66428
16.00000 20.12531
34.00000 21.61315
15.00000 20.49363
13.00000 21.06237
27.00000 20.53797
28.00000 20.72138
32.00000 20.44648
24.00000 20.46834
21.00000 20.29804
57.00000 20.25217
60.00000 20.12573
48.00000 20.05145
66.00000 19.94341
111.0000 19.85723
90.00000 19.75688
87.00000 19.66571
147.0000 19.56860
45.00000 19.47534
121.0000 19.37959
13.00000 19.28545
26.00000 19.19026
19.00000 19.09575
32.00000 19.00080
44.00000 18.90614
33.00000 18.81129
28.00000 18.71656
45.00000 18.62176
19.00000 18.52700
49.00000 18.43222
37.00000 18.33745
73.00000 18.24267
24.00000 18.14790
49.00000 18.05312
52.00000 17.95835
35.00000 17.86357
34.00000 17.76879
45.00000 17.67402
32.00000 17.57924
42.00000 17.48447
36.00000 17.38969
40
46.00000 17.29492
23.00000 17.20014
65.00000 17.10537
20.00000 17.01059
28.00000 16.91582
20.00000 16.82104
26.00000 16.72627
27.00000 16.63149
33.00000 16.53672
29.00000 16.44194
25.00000 16.34717
38.00000 16.25239
31.00000 16.15762
40.00000 16.06284
68.00000 15.96807
32.00000 15.87329
17.00000 15.77852
35.00000 15.68374
27.00000 15.58897
28.00000 15.49419
31.00000 15.39942
37.00000 15.30464
26.00000 15.20987
44.00000 15.11509
28.00000 15.02032
30.00000 14.92554
55.00000 14.83077
14.00000 14.73599
38.00000 14.64121
40.00000 14.54644
42.00000 14.45166
36.00000 14.35689
47.00000 14.26211
47.00000 14.16734
47.00000 14.07256
42.00000 13.97779
29.00000 13.88301
4.000000 13.78824
NA 13.69346
NA 13.59869
NA 13.50391
NA 13.40914
NA 13.31436
NA 13.21959
NA 13.12481
NA 13.03004
NA 12.93526
NA 12.84049
NA 12.74571
NA 12.65094
NA 12.55616
41
NA 12.46139
NA 12.36661
NA 12.27184
NA 12.17706
NA 12.08229
NA 11.98751
NA 11.89274
NA 11.79796
NA 11.70319
NA 11.60841
NA 11.51364
NA 11.41886
8OLEOGRAM STATINERITAS DATA TRINGKAT LEVEL DATA
MOBIL
Date6 03919910 Ti1e6 02624
Sa1/"e6 2002601 2010612
:(c"$2e2 )5ser*ati)(s6 83
A$t)c)rre"ati)( Partia" !)rre"ati)( A! PA! B-Stat Pr)5
. C%%% C . C%%% C 1 0.367 0.367 11.578 0.001
. C%%%% C . C%%%% C 2 0.543 0.472 37.277 0.000
. C%% C . C . C 3 0.321 0.064 46.380 0.000
. C%% C .%C . C 4 0.213 -0.168 50.441 0.000
. C%. C .%C . C 5 0.113 -0.130 51.595 0.000
. C . C . C . C 6 0.044 -0.024 51.774 0.000
. C . C . C . C 7 -0.047 -0.047 51.976 0.000
.%C . C . C . C 8 -0.085 -0.054 52.652 0.000
.%C . C . C . C 9 -0.137 -0.055 54.450 0.000
.%C . C . C . C 10 -0.104 0.046 55.501 0.000
%%C . C .%C . C 11 -0.255 -0.181 61.850 0.000
. C . C . C%% C 12 0.006 0.217 61.853 0.000
%%C . C .%C . C 13 -0.234 -0.109 67.375 0.000
.%C . C .%C . C 14 -0.083 -0.101 68.077 0.000
.%C . C . C . C 15 -0.128 -0.015 69.780 0.000
.%C . C . C . C 16 -0.131 -0.035 71.583 0.000
.%C . C . C . C 17 -0.065 0.056 72.039 0.000
.%C . C . C . C 18 -0.101 -0.055 73.138 0.000
.%C . C . C . C 19 -0.068 -0.037 73.655 0.000
. C . C . C . C 20 -0.035 0.031 73.794 0.000
. C . C . C%. C 21 -0.006 0.068 73.798 0.000
. C . C . C . C 22 0.009 -0.041 73.808 0.000
. C . C .%C . C 23 -0.046 -0.071 74.052 0.000
. C%. C . C%. C 24 0.142 0.124 76.480 0.000
. C . C .%C . C 25 -0.048 -0.064 76.764 0.000
. C . C .%C . C 26 0.036 -0.124 76.924 0.000
.%C . C .%C . C 27 -0.061 -0.126 77.392 0.000
. C . C . C . C 28 -0.056 0.041 77.794 0.000
.%C . C . C . C 29 -0.066 0.004 78.365 0.000
.%C . C . C . C 30 -0.092 -0.030 79.486 0.000
42
.%C . C . C . C 31 -0.085 -0.009 80.475 0.000
.%C . C .%C . C 32 -0.111 -0.063 82.190 0.000
.%C . C . C . C 33 -0.077 -0.006 83.035 0.000
.%C . C .%C . C 34 -0.129 -0.104 85.434 0.000
.%C . C . C . C 35 -0.096 0.057 86.784 0.000
. C . C . C%. C 36 0.021 0.092 86.853 0.000
8OLEOGRAM STATINERITAS DATA DI<ERENSI %I&
Date6 03919910 Ti1e6 02625
Sa1/"e6 2002601 2010612
:(c"$2e2 )5ser*ati)(s6 82
A$t)c)rre"ati)( Partia" !)rre"ati)( A! PA! B-Stat Pr)5
%%%%%C . C %%%%%C . C 1 -0.640 -0.640 34.876 0.000
. C%%% C .%C . C 2 0.329 -0.138 44.194 0.000
.%C . C . C%. C 3 -0.088 0.109 44.876 0.000
. C . C . C . C 4 -0.005 0.036 44.878 0.000
. C . C .%C . C 5 -0.026 -0.098 44.939 0.000
. C . C .%C . C 6 0.014 -0.079 44.956 0.000
. C . C .%C . C 7 -0.042 -0.063 45.115 0.000
. C . C . C . C 8 0.010 -0.052 45.125 0.000
.%C . C .%C . C 9 -0.068 -0.140 45.563 0.000
. C%. C . C%. C 10 0.133 0.066 47.268 0.000
%%C . C %%C . C 11 -0.306 -0.291 56.362 0.000
. C%%% C . C . C 12 0.388 0.064 71.173 0.000
%%C . C . C . C 13 -0.318 0.025 81.246 0.000
. C%. C .%C . C 14 0.174 -0.060 84.300 0.000
. C . C . C . C 15 -0.045 -0.038 84.509 0.000
. C . C .%C . C 16 -0.050 -0.123 84.773 0.000
. C%. C . C . C 17 0.080 -0.006 85.455 0.000
. C . C . C . C 18 -0.050 -0.004 85.724 0.000
. C . C .%C . C 19 -0.005 -0.075 85.727 0.000
. C . C .%C . C 20 0.007 -0.108 85.733 0.000
. C . C . C . C 21 0.009 0.007 85.742 0.000
. C . C . C . C 22 0.050 0.049 86.032 0.000
.%C . C .%C . C 23 -0.163 -0.103 89.144 0.000
. C%% C . C . C 24 0.273 0.050 97.986 0.000
%%C . C . C . C 25 -0.226 0.053 104.14 0.000
. C%. C . C . C 26 0.149 0.030 106.89 0.000
.%C . C .%C . C 27 -0.088 -0.101 107.86 0.000
. C . C . C . C 28 0.016 -0.041 107.89 0.000
. C . C . C . C 29 0.013 -0.009 107.92 0.000
. C . C . C . C 30 -0.030 -0.032 108.04 0.000
. C . C . C . C 31 0.028 0.021 108.14 0.000
. C . C .%C . C 32 -0.056 -0.062 108.58 0.000
. C%. C . C . C 33 0.078 0.043 109.44 0.000
.%C . C .%C . C 34 -0.075 -0.079 110.25 0.000
. C . C .%C . C 35 -0.035 -0.092 110.44 0.000
. C%. C . C . C 36 0.116 -0.036 112.43 0.000
43
RUMUS S?NTA@
WORKILE M 2002:1 200::11
DATA PENJUALAN
EIUATION EI1.LS D(PENJUALAN) F AR(1)
S7OW EI1
EIUATION EI2.LS D(PENJUALAN) F AR(1) AR(2)
S7OW EI2
EIUATION EI;.LS D(PENJUALAN) F AR(1) MA(1)
S7OW EI;
EIUATION EI1.LS D(PENJUALAN) F AR(1)
EJPAND 2002:1 2010:12
SMPL 2002:1 2010:12
OREFAST PENJUALAN
PLOT PENJUALAN PENJUALAN
S7OW PENJUALAN PENJUALAN
44

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