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Comparing Investments - an example

Investment
Distribution

Return

Probability Return

Probability Return

Probability Return

Probability Return

Probability Return

Probability

8%

Expected return
Standard deviation of the return

10%

8.00%

8%

0.25

6%

0.5

10%

0.25

9%

0.25

10%

0.5

14%

0.5

12%

0.5

13%

0.5

12%

0.25

14%

0.25

15%

0.25

10.00%

10.00%

10.00%

12.00%

12.50%

0.00%

0.00%

1.414%

4.00%

1.414%

2.18%

Expected utility or the return*

10.3923

10.4881

10.4879

10.4864

10.5828

10.6061

The dollar Return on $100

-25

W = Wo + Return = 100 + x
The Utility = U(W)

-20

-15

-10

-5

10

15

20

25

30

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

8.6603

8.9443

9.2195

9.4868

9.7468

10.0000

10.2470

10.4881

10.7238

10.9545

11.1803

11.4018

0.2840

0.2753

0.2673

0.2600

0.2532

0.2470

0.2411

0.2357

0.2306

0.2259

0.2214

The Marginal Utility

*Assumptions and Notation:


The initial wealth = Wo = $100

U(W) = W
11.50

The investment = $100


The dollar return = x
The final wealth = W = Wo + x

11.00
10.50

The utility function U(W) = W


10.00
9.50
9.00
8.50
70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135
W

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