Tugas 4

Analisa Resiko dan Daya Rusak Air

Dosen
Nama
NIM
No. absen

Prof. Ir. Iwan Kridasantausa, Ph.D.

Taty Yuniarti
95014318
14

Diketahui :

A1 = Hutan

Saluran
A3 = Pemukiman

Luas Das
Waktu
Konsentrasi

A2 = Sawah

(A)

500

ha

(tc)

jam

m2

5E+06
asumsi

>> Intensitas Hujan (I)

Rumus Mononobe
_=_24/24
(24/)^(2/3)

Stasiun Djangkar, Jawa Timur

No
Tahun
R24 (mm)
1
1916
118
2
1917
100
3
1918
134
4
1919
197
5
1920
190
6
1921
93
7
1922
160
8
1923
296
9
1924
173
10
1925
120
11
1926
63
12
1927
80
13
1928
44
14
1929
77
15
1930
68
16
1931
70
17
1932
159
18
1933
165
19
1934
123
20
1935
55
21
1936
83
22
1937
86
23
1938
107
24
1939
76
Rata-rata I
Stdev I
Koefisien Variansi I

I (mm/jam)
13.99
11.86
15.89
23.36
22.53
11.03
18.97
35.09
20.51
14.23
7.47
9.49
5.22
9.13
8.06
8.30
18.85
19.56
14.58
6.52
9.84
10.20
12.69
9.01
14.02
6.8847416769
0.491235758

>> Koefisien Run off ( C )

Kawasan
Prosentase
A1
A2
A3

Hutan
Industri
Pemukiman

25%
35%
40%

Rumus nilai rata-rata:

1
( c u )
3

- Nilai koefisien run-off gabungan:

_= (_1 _1+_2 _2+_3
_3 )/

0.5125

Luas (m2)
1,250,000
1,750,000
2,000,000

- Koefisien Limpasan

mm/jam
mm/jam

m/s
m/s

0.0000039
0.0000019

Range Koefisien Run-Off ( C )

design value
min
max
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.75
0.6
0.9
0.5
0.4
0.6

Rata-rata

Koef.Variansi
(2)

0.20
0.75
0.50

0.0416667
0.0066667
0.0066667

Rumus Koefisien Variansi:

2
x

1
2

1
6x

( c

cu

u)

- Koefisien variansi gabungan

_ =(( 1 _^2
+ 2 _^2+ 3
_^2)/3)

= 0.1354006401
>> Debit aliran (Loading)
- Q = C.I.A
= 9.976059956 m3/s
- Koefisien variansi loading:
_=(
^2+ _^2 )

= 0.5095546126

>> Saluran (Resistance)

Resiko
Prob. Resiko desain
Kehandalan
Loading

Resistance

1-resiko
Debit
Koef.Variansi
Stdev

5%
0.05
0.95
9.9761
0.50955
5.08335

10%
0.1
0.9
9.9761
0.50955
5.08335

15%
0.15
0.85
9.9761
0.50955
5.08335

20%
0.2
0.8
9.9761
0.50955
5.08335

Debit
Koef.Variansi
Stdev

18.4335
0.05
0.92167

16.5738
0.05
0.82869

15.2901
0.05
0.764504

14.3027
0.05
0.715135

1.63706
0.05081

1.28100
0.10010

Py
Prob. Resiko hitung
Prob.Resiko hitung - Prob resiko
design

0.00

1.03375
0.15063

0.00

0.00

; goalseek
; asumsi

0.84284
0.19966
0.00

rumus Py:
P

R2

L2

- Dimensi Saluran Trapesium Terbaik

Q design = Q resistance
h

R
R

=2/3

18.4335
3.16627
3.6561

16.5738
3.04247
3.5131

15.2901
2.9519
3.4085

14.3027
2.8789 ; goalseek
3.3243

=3
=(+)
=+2(1+^2 )

1.7321
28.9404
16.3212

1.7321
26.7216
15.6830

1.7321
25.1537
15.2160

1.7321
23.9255
14.8398

1.773

1.704

1.653

1.612

0.023

0.023

0.023

0.023

=/

Koefisien manning
Kemiringan
saluran
Q hitung
Qhitung - Q design

n
S

0.0001

0.0001

0.0001

0.0001

18.4337
0.00

16.5738
0.00

15.2901
0.00

14.3028
0.00

>> Gabungan
RESIKO
Q (Tahanan 5%
10%
15%
20%
Beban )
0.0001306205 0.0004305169 0.0009177766 0.0015818317
-10
0.0002559838 0.0007898367 0.0016077041
0.002673202
-9
0.0004832163 0.0013954451
0.002711691 0.0043493331
-8
0.0008786154 0.0023741954 0.0044039181 0.0068129146
-7
0.0015388072 0.0038899901 0.0068865737 0.0102745451
-6
0.0025959585 0.0061377447 0.0103688865 0.0149180359
-5
0.004218319 0.0093260437 0.0150323189 0.0208535539
-4
0.0066025124 0.0136462829 0.0209838312 0.0280651842
-3
0.0099542184 0.0192291282
0.028203859
0.036364289
-2
0.0144555042 0.0260935471 0.0365003667 0.0453629918
-1
0.0202202937 0.0340984742 0.0454831846 0.0544813254
0
0.0272439334 0.0429106478 0.0545719468 0.0629960074
1
0.0353573981 0.0520024131 0.0630453374 0.0701290203
2
0.0441996596 0.0606890336 0.0701296132
0.075162619
3
0.0532213256 0.0682064188 0.0751129568 0.0775577895
4
0.0617277698 0.0738190705 0.0774628045 0.0770492343
5
0.0689610115 0.0769378769 0.0769195118 0.0736937433
6
0.0742086953 0.077221836 0.0735435799 0.0678597558
7
0.0769190845 0.0746394359 0.0677045658 0.0601607656
8
0.0767965223 0.069474411 0.0600144862 0.0513492142
9
0.0738545298 0.0622744211 0.0512223114 0.0421962285
10
0.0684133502 0.0537554899 0.0420946784 0.0333835759
11
0.0610425568 0.0446852559 0.0333088902 0.0254279565
12
0.0524629504 0.0357712383 0.0253780399 0.0186470206
13
0.0434311014 0.0275760463 0.0186174815 0.0131651808
14
0.0346319632 0.0204719082 0.0131506958
0.008948775
15
0.0265999927 0.0146356815 0.0089441995 0.0058562517
16
0.0196795 0.010076179 0.0058573229 0.0036897358
17
0.0140240916 0.0066804713 0.0036933613 0.0022381552
18
0.0096263923 0.0042652709 0.0022423808
0.001307087
19
0.0063647377 0.0026224937 0.0013108769 0.0007349168
20
0.0040534573 0.0015527823 0.0007378692 0.0003978243
21
0.0024865593 0.0008853908 0.0003999095 0.0002073308
22
0.0014692652 0.0004861695 0.0002086936 0.0001040293
23
-

Grafik

Distribusi Normal Resiko

0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02

m3/s

Distribusi Normal Resiko

0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03

m3/s

0.02
0.01
-15

-10

0
0

-5

5%

5
10%

10
15%

>> Resiko dan Safety Factor

-

C gab =
Luas Das =
Tahun
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
Rata-rata
Stdev
Koef.Variansi

0.5125
5,000,000 m2
Hujan
mm
118
100
134
197
190
93
160
296
173
120
63
80
44
77
68
70
159
165
123
55
83
86
107
76

I
mm/jam
13.99
11.86
15.89
23.36
22.53
11.03
18.97
35.09
20.51
14.23
7.47
9.49
5.22
9.13
8.06
8.30
18.85
19.56
14.58
6.52
9.84
10.20
12.69
9.01

Asumsi berupa distribusi normal

Kala Ulang
T (tahun)

L=Qt (m3/s)

2
5
10
20
25
50
100

0.5
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.04
0.02
0.01

9.98
14.10
16.26
18.04
18.56
20.04
21.38

Q = CIA
m3/s
9.96
8.44
11.31
16.63
16.03
7.85
13.50
24.98
14.60
10.13
5.32
6.75
3.71
6.50
5.74
5.91
13.42
13.92
10.38
4.64
7.00
7.26
9.03
6.41
9.98
4.9006
0.49124

15
20%

20

25

Asumsi resistance saluran dipilih dengan resiko gabungan 5%

Periode
Beban
Ulang
Loading
Stdev
resiko
(tahun)
(L)
L
L (*asumsi)
2
9.98
5
14.10
10
16.26
20
18.04
4.90
0.20
25
18.56
50
20.04
100
21.38

Nominal
(Ln)
14.10051
18.22495
20.38088
22.16127
22.67991
24.16510
25.50100

Resistance
(R )

18.43

Tahanan
resiko
R (*asumsi)

Stdev
R

0.92

0.05

16.92

SF=Rn/L
n

Resiko

1.199778
0.928259
0.830066
0.76338
0.745923
0.700079
0.663404

0.082
0.286
0.447
0.589
0.629
0.734
0.814

%
Grafik SF dan Resiko

1.30

90

1.30

90

1.20

80

1.20

80

70

1.10

0.90

50

SF

40

Resiko

30

0.80

20

0.70

10
11

13

15

17

Debit Rata-rata (m3/s)

19

21

23

70

1.10

60

1.00

0.60
9

Resiko
(%)
8.196
28.606
44.727
58.881
62.873
73.445
81.440

Grafik

%
Grafik SF dan Resiko

SF

Nominal
(Rn)

SF

60

1.00

50

SF

0.90

40

Resiko

30

0.80

20

0.70
0.60
0

10
10

20

30

40

50

60

Periode Ulang (tahun)

70

80

90

0
100