The Origin and Growth of Urbanization in the World

Author(s): Kingsley Davis

Reviewed work(s):
Source: American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 60, No. 5, World Urbanism (Mar., 1955), pp. 429437
Published by: The University of Chicago Press
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THE ORIGIN AND GROWTH OF URBANIZATION IN THE WORLD

KINGSLEY DAVIS
ABSTRACT
Althoughtherewerea fewcitiesas earlyas 4000 B.C., the citiesofthe ancientworldweregenerallysmall
and had to be supportedby muchlargerruralpopulations."Urbanizedsocieties,"in whicha highproportion
of the populationlives in cities,developed only in the nineteenthand twentiethcenturies.The processof
urbanizationhas movedrapidlyin the entireworldsince 1800,and thepeak is notyetin sight.A diminution
of the rate of urbanizationin the older industrialcountriesis beingcompensatedforby an increasein the
rate in the underdevelopedareas.

Urbanphenomenaattractsociologicalat- ertheless,it can be said that our informatentionprimarilyfor fourreasons. First, tion,both statisticaland nonstatistical,
is
suchphenomenaare relatively
recentin hu- muchbettertodaythanwhenAdna Weber
man history.Compared to most other wrote his classic treatiseon comparative
aspectsof society-e.g.,language,religion, urbanization
at the turnofthepresentcenstratification,
orthefamily-citiesappeared tury.'
onlyyesterday,
and urbanization,
meaning
THE RISE OF EARLY URBAN CENTERS
thata sizableproportion
of thepopulation
livesin cities,has developedonlyin thelast
Because the archeologicalevidence is
few momentsof man's existence.Second, fragmentary,
the role of citiesin antiquity
urbanismrepresents
a revolutionary
change has oftenbeenexaggerated.
in
Archeologists
in the wholepatternof social life.Itselfa particular
areinclinedto call anysettlement
productofbasiceconomicand technological a "city"whichhad a fewstreetsand a pubdevelopments,it tends in turn,once it lic buildingor two.Yet thereis surelysome
comesintobeing,to affecteveryaspectof point in not mistakinga townfora city.
existence.It exercisesits pervasiveinflu- Moreover,whatis important
is notonlythe
ence not only within the urban milieu appearanceofa fewtownsor citiesbut also
strictly
definedbut also in theruralhinter- theirplace in thetotalsocietyofwhichthey
land. The thirdsource of sociologicalin- werea part.Thus,eventhoughinparticular
terestin citiesis the fact that,onceestab- regionsaround the Mediterraneanand in
lished,theytendto be centersofpowerand southernand westernAsia manytownsand
influence
throughout
the wholesociety,no a fewcitiesarosepriorto theChristianEra,
matterhowagricultural
and ruralitmaybe. therewere severelimitationsboth on the
Finally,the processof urbanizationis still size thatsuchcitiescouldreachand on the
occurring;
manyof theproblemsassociated proportionof the total population that
withit are unsolved;and, consequently,
its couldlivein them.
futuredirection
and potentialities
are stilla
Speakinggenerally,one can agree with
matterofuncertainty.
This paperexamines the dominantviewthatthediversetechnothe firstand lastpoints:theorigin,growth, logical innovationsconstitutingNeolithic
and presentrateofprogressofurbanization culturewerenecessaryforthe existenceof
in the world.Sincegood statisticson urban settled communities.2
Yet one should not
concentration
do not existeven today for
1 Adna F. Weber, The Growthof Cities in the
substantialpartsof the world,and hardly
existforany part duringmostof the time NineteenthCentury(New York: Columbia Universince citieshave been in existence,we are sityPress,1899).
2V. GordonChilde,Man Makes Himself (rev.
forcedto relyon whatevercredibleevidence
can be foundand so can reachonlybroad ed.; London: Watts, 1941), chaps. v-vi; What
Happened in History (London and New York:
conclusionsconcerningearly periods and Penguin Books, 1946 [firstprintedin 1942]),
onlyapproximations
forrecenttimes.Nev- chans.iii-iv.
429

430

THE AMERICAN JOURNAL OF SOCIOLOGY

inferthat these innovations,whichbegan goods did not dependon theirpresenceon

some 8,000-10,000years ago, were suf- the land as such. They could thus realize
ficientto giveriseto townsas distinctfrom the advantagesof townliving,whichgave
villages.Even thoughtheNeolithicpopula- themadditionalpoweroverthecultivators.
tionwas moredenselysettledthanthepureThe firstcities,doubtlesssmalland hard
ly huntingor food-gathering
peoples,it was to distinguish
fromtowns,seemto have apnevertheless
chieflyengagedin an occupa- peared in the most favorableplaces sometion-agriculture-whichrequiresa large timebetween6000 and 5000 B.c. Fromthat
amountof land per person.The Neolithic timeon,it can be assumedthatsomeofthe
population density was thereforenot a inventionswhichmade largersettlements
matterof townconcentration
but rathera possibleweredue to townsand citiesthemmatterof tinyvillagesscatteredover the selves-viz., writing and accountancy,
land.
bronze,the beginningsof science,a solar
By 3000B.C., when
bureaucracy.
What had to be added to the Neolithic calendar,
an incomplexto make possiblethe firsttowns? theseinnovationswereall exercising
Between6000 and 4000 B.C. certaininven- fluencein Egypt,Mesopotamia,and India,
tions-such as the ox-drawnplow and therewerein existencewhatmay be called
wheeledcart,the sailboat,metallurgy,
irri- "true" cities.Afterthat thereappears to
gation,and thedomestication
ofnewplants havebeen,forsome2,000years,a lullduring
-facilitated,whentakentogether,
a more which the most importantinnovations,
intensiveand more productiveuse of the towardthe end of the period,werealphaNeolithicelementsthemselves.When this betic writingand the smeltingof iron.
was utilizedin certain Curiously,the cities in the regionswhere
enrichedtechnology
wentinto
eventually
unusualregionswhereclimate,soil, water, citylifehad originated
and topography
weremostfavorable(broad eclipse,and it was not untilGreco-Roman
rivervalleyswithalluvialsoilnotexhausted timesthatnewprinciplesmade possible,in
by successivecropping,witha dryclimate newregions,a markedgainin cityexistence.
thatminimized
soilleaching,withplentyof The fact that the greatestsubsequentculdid not occurprimarily
sunshine, and with sediment-containingturaldevelopments
waterforirrigation
fromtheriveritself),the in the regionswherethe firstcities arose
resultwas a sufficiently
productive
economy suggeststhat cities are not always and
to make possiblethesine qua nonof urban everywherea stimulantof economicand
in one place of social advance. Childeadmitsthat,ifanyexistence,theconcentration
effect
thing,thefirstcitieshad a stultifying
people whodo not growtheirownfood.
on
due perhapsto the
culturalprogress,3
But a productive
economy,thoughnecesand excessivepower
insulation
sary,was not sufficient:
highproductivity unproductive
per acre does notnecessarily
meanhighper of the urbanelite. There is no doubt that
capita productivity.
Instead ofproducinga the religio-magicaltraditionalismof the
surplusfor town dwellers,the cultivators earlycitieswas profound.
Why was thereso littleurbanizationin
at least, multiplyon the
can, theoretically
land until they end up producingjust ancienttimes,and why did it proceedso
enoughto sustainthemselves.The rise of slowlyfromthat point? The sites of the
townsand citiestherefore
required,in ad- earliest"cities" themselvesshowthatthey
ditionto highlyfavorableagricultural
con- were small affairs.The walls of ancient
ditions,a formof social organizationin Babylon,forexample,embracedan area of
whichcertainstratacould appropriatefor very roughly3.2 square miles,4and "Ur,
themselves
partoftheproducegrownby the
3Man Makes Himself,p. 227.
cultivators.Such strata-religiousand gov4 Deduced fromdata given in MargueriteRuttraders,and artisans-could ten, Babylone (Paris: Presses Universitairesde
erningofficials,
live in towns, because their power over France, 1948), p. 34.

THE ORIGIN AND GROWTH OF URBANIZATION IN THE WORLD

431

withits canals,harbors,and temples,occu- general improvementin agriculturebe

ofagriculture
pied some 220 acres; thewallsof Erechen- achieved.The staticcharacter
compass an area of just on two square and of the economygenerallywas fostered
miles."5This suggeststhat the famousUr perhaps by the insulationof the religiofromthepracticalartsand
couldhardlyhave boastedmorethan5,000 politicalofficials
ofthepeasantto virtuallythe
inhabitantsand Erech hardlymore than thereduction
25,000. The mounds of Mohenjo-daroin statusofa beastofburden.The technology
as thatof
was as labor-intensive
Sind covera square mile,6and Harappa in oftransport
The only means of conveying
thePunjab had a walledarea visiblein 1853 agriculture.
was by
witha perimeterof 2' miles.7These were bulkygoods formass consumption
evidently"cities" of 5,000-15,000inhabit- boat, and, thoughsails had been invented,
that rowing
ants,yettheywerethechiefcentersforthe the sailboat was so inefficient
entireIndus region,an area nearly two- was stillnecessary.The oxcart,withitssolid
thirdsthesizeofTexas. Less is knownabout wheelsand rigidlyattachedaxle, the pack
were
the earliestEgyptiancities,fortheywere animal,and thehumanburden-bearer
means of transport,the
builtwithmud bricksand have long since all short-distance
disappearedbeneaththe alluvial soil. Tell only exceptionbeing the camel caravan.
was reservedlargetransport
el 'Amarna, the temporarycapital built Long-distance
muchlater,about 1400 B.C., perhapsheld ly forgoodswhichhad highvalue and small
somethinglike 40,000people. The wall of bulk-i.e., goodsfortheelite-whichcould
Hotep-Sanusert,an earlier capital built notmaintaina largeurbanpopulation.The
limited
about 1900 B.C. on the Fayum, measured size of theearlycitieswas therefore
350 by 400 meters8and inclosedan area of by the amountof food, fibers,and other
of a square bulkymaterialsthatcouldbe obtainedfrom
approximatelyone-twentieth
bylabor-intensive
mile.Thebes,at theheightofitssplendoras theimmediatehinterland
the capital of Egypt about 1600, was de- methods, a severe limitationwhich the
as havinga circum- Greekcitiesof a laterperiod,smallas they
scribedby Greekwriters
had to escapebefore
ferenceof 14 miles.By a liberalestimateit remained,nevertheless
may have contained225,000inhabitants. theycouldattaintheirfullsize.
To the questionswhy even the largest
There werepoliticallimitationsas well.
of communication
and transcitiespriorto 1000B.C. weresmallby mod- The difficulty
local
ernstandards,whyeventhesmalloneswere portand the existenceof multifarious
of large
few,and whythedegreeofurban- tribalculturesmade theformation
relatively
izationeven in the most advancedregions nationalunitsvirtually
impossible.The first
wasveryslight,theanswerseemsas follows: urban-centered
unitswere city-states,
and
static,and whenso-called"empires"wereformed,
was so cumbersome,
Agriculture
as in
that it took many cultiva- Egypt,in theSumerianregion,and laterin
labor-intensive
tors to supportone man in the city. The Assyria,muchlocal autonomywas leftto
ox-drawnplow,the woodenplowshare,in- the subordinatedareas, and the constant
undationirrigation,
stonehoes,sickles,and dangerofrevoltpreventedtheextensionof
of production,
to be thehinterlands
ofthecitiesveryfaror very
axes wereinstruments
of the weakIt is symptomatic
sure,but clumsyones. Not untilironcame effectively.
intouse inAsia Minorabout 1300B.C. could ness of the earlycitiesthat theywereconstantly threatenedand frequentlycon6 Childe,WhatHappened in History,p. 87.
townsbut
querednot onlyby neighboring
6Stuart Piggott, PrehistoricIndia (Harmonds- also by nonurbanbarbarians.Each wave of
worth:PenguinBooks, 1950), p. 165.
barbarianstendedto rebuildtheurbancen7Childe, What Happened in History,p. 118.
and sedentersand to becomeagricultural
in
tary,onlyto be eventuallyoverwhelmed
8 Pierre Montet, La Vie quotidienneen Egypte
turnbynewinvaders.Otherlimiting
factors
(Paris: Hachette, 1946), p. 16.

432

THE AMERICAN JOURNALOF SOCIOLOGY

medicine(which forceand tradeto bringslaves,goods,food,

werethe lack of scientific
of the and cultureto the imperialcapital, they
made urbanlivingdeadly),thefixity
rural- wereable to createin Rome (withthepospeasanton theland (whichminimized
theabsenceoflarge-scale sibleexceptionof Constantinople
urbanmigration),
somecen(whichwould have derived turieslater) thelargestcitythatwas to be
manufacturing
more advantagefromurban concentration knownin theworlduntiltheriseofLondon
the bureaucraticcon- in the nineteenth
thandid handicraft),
century.Yet, despitethe
freetrade factthatRomeand Constantinople
cameto
trolofthepeasantry(whichstifled
in the hinterland),and the traditionalism hold populationsof severalhundredthouand religiosityof all classes (whichham- sand, theywerenot able to resistconquest
and economicadvance). by farless urbanizedoutsiders.The eclipse
peredtechnological
The limitationsexplain why we find, of citiesin Europe was striking.
Commerce
when the sites furnishadequate evidence, declinedto thebarestminimum;
eachlocale
that the earliestcities were small affairs, becameisolatedand virtuallyself-sufficient;
usually no more than towns.Whetherin the social systemcongealedinto a heredithe new or in the old world, even the tarysystem.9
Whenfinallytownsand cities
biggestplaces couldscarcelyhave exceeded began to revive,they were small, as the
and the proportionof following
200,000inhabitants,
estimatessuggest:Florence(1338),
the total populationlivingin themmust 90,000; Venice (1422), 190,000; Antwerp
have been not more than 1 or 2 per cent. (sixteenth century), 200,000; London
Nuremberg(1450),20,165;
From 50 to 90 farmersmusthave been re- (1377),30,000;10
Frankfort
quiredto supportone man in a city.
(1440),8,719."
Yet it was preciselyin westernEurope,
SUBSEQUENT CITY DEVELOPMENT
wherecitiesand urbanizationhad reached
If urbanizationwas to escape its early a nadir duringthe Dark Ages, that the
it had to do so in a newregion, limitations that had characterizedthe
limitations,
a regionmoreopen to innovationand new ancientworldwerefinallyto be overcome.
conceptions.As it turnedout, the region The cities of Mesopotamia, India, and
thatsaw a laterand greaterurbandevelop- Egypt,ofPersia,Greece,and Rome,had all
mentwas farthernorth,the Greco-Roman been tiedto an economythatwas primarily
wherehandicraft
playedat best
worldof Europe,flourishing
approximately agricultural,
a
secondary
role
and
where
the
citywas still
duringtheperiodfrom600 B.C. to 400 A.D.
attempting
to
supplement
its
economic
Iron toolsand weapons,alphabeticwriting,
improvedsailboats, cheap coinage, more weaknesswith militarystrength,to comsystematiccoloni- mand its sustenanceratherthan to buy it
democraticinstitutions,
at the
zation-all tended to increaseproduction, honestly.In westernEurope,starting
zero
the
point,
development
of
cities
not
stimulatetrade,and expand the effective
political unit. Towns and cities became only reached the stage that the ancient
morenumerous,the degreeof urbanization world had achieved but kept goingafter
greater.A fewcitiesreacheda substantial that.It keptgoingon thebasis of improvesize. Athens,at itspeak in thefifth
century ments in agricultureand transport,the
ofbetween120,- openingofnewlandsand new traderoutes,
B.C., achieveda population
9Henri Pirenne, Medieval Cities (Princeton:
000 and 180,000. Syracuse and Carthage
PrincetonUniversityPress, 1939), pp. 84-85.
were perhapslarger.
10Pierre Clerget,"Urbanism: A Historic, GeoThe full potentialitiesof the ancient
worldto supporta largecitywererealized graphic,and Economic Study," Annual Reportof
the
Institutionfor 1912 (Washington,
onlywiththeRomans.Throughtheirabil- D.C.:Smithsonian
GovernmentPrintingOffice,1913), p. 656.
ityto conquer,organize,and governan em11Henri Pirenne, Economic and Social History
pire,to put the immediateItalian hinter- of Medieval Europe (London: Routledge & Kegan
land to frutifulcultivation,to use both Paul, 1936), p. 172.

THE ORIGIN AND GROWTH OF URBANIZATION IN THE WORLD

433

and, above all, therisein productiveactivi- urbanizedcountry,England. In 1801, aland thoughLondonhad alreadyreachednearly
ty,firstin highlyorganizedhandicraft
new formof the millionmark (865,000),England and
eventuallyin a revolutionary
production-thefactoryrunby machinery Wales had less than 10 per cent of their
thus populationin citiesof 100,000or more.By
and fossil fuel. The transformation
achievedin thenineteenth
centurywas the 1901no less than35 percentofthepopulatrueurbanrevolution,
forit meantnotonly tion of England and Wales was livingin
the riseof a fewscatteredtownsand cities citiesof 100,000or more,and 58 per cent
but the appearance of genuineurbaniza- was livingin citiesof 20,000or more. By
tion,in the sensethata substantialportion 1951 these two proportionshad risen to
of thepopulationlived in townsand cities. 38.4 and 69.3 per cent,respectively.
Britainwas in thevan ofurbandevelopTHE WORLD TREND FROM 1800 TO 195012
ment. A degreeof urbanizationequal to
Urbanizationhas, in fact, gone ahead that she had attained in 1801 was not
much fasterand reached proportionsfar
greaterduringthe last centuryand a half
TABLE 1
thanat any previoustimein worldhistory.
PERCENTAGE OF WORLD'S POPULAThe tremendous
growthin worldtradedurTION LIVING IN CITIES
ingthisperiodhas enabledtheurbanpopulationto draw its sustenancefroman ever
Cities of
Cities of
widerarea. Indeed,it can trulybe said that
100,000
20,000
or More
or More
thehinterland
of today'scitiesis theentire
world.Contemporary
Britain,Holland,and
1800......
2.4
1.7
Japan, for example, could not maintain
4.3
2.3
1850.......
9.2
5.5
1900......
theirurban populationsolely from their
13.1
20.9
1950......
own territory.The numberof rural inhabitantsrequiredto maintainone urban
inhabitantis stillgreat-greaterthan one achievedby any othercountryuntilafter
ratio 1850.Thereafterthe Britishrate of urbanwould imaginefromthe rural-urban
withineach of the highlyurbanizedcoun- ization began slowly to decline, whereas
tries.The reasonis thatmuchofagriculture thatofmostothercountriescontinuedat a
and highlevel.By assembling
aroundtheworldis stilltechnologically
availabledata and
backward.Yet therecan be no preparingestimateswheredata werelackeconomically
forparticularcountries ing,we have arrivedat figures
doubtthat,whether
on urbanizaor forthe entireglobe, the ratio of urban tionin theworldas a whole,beginning
with
dwellersto thosewho growtheirfood has 1800, the earliestdate forwhichanything
risenremarkably.
This is shownby thefact like a reasonableestimatecan be obtained.
thattheproportion
ofpeoplelivingin cities The percentageof the world'spopulation
in 1950 is higherthan that foundin any foundlivingin citiesis as shownin Table 1.
particularcountryprior to moderntimes It can be seen that the proportionhas
and manytimeshigherthan thatformerly tendedto do a bit betterthandoubleitself
theearthas a whole.
characterizing
and that by 1950 the
each half-century
The rapidityof urbanizationin recent worldas a wholewas considerably
moreurtimescan be seen by lookingat the most banizedthanBritainwas in 1800.As every12The writeracknowledges with pleasure the one knows,theearth'stotalpopulationhas
rapidratesince1800,
collaborationof Mrs. Hilda Hertz Golden in the grownat an extremely
statisticalwork on which this and succeedingsec- reaching2.4 billionby 1950.But theurban
tionsare based. Such workhas been done as partofa
populationhas grownmuchfaster.In 1800
continuingprogramof comparativeurban research
in the populationdivisionof the Bureau of Applied therewereabout 15.6 millionpeople living
in citiesof 100,000or more.By 1950it was
Social Research, Columbia University.

434

THE AMERICAN JOURNALOF SOCIOLOGY

313.7 million,morethan twentytimesthe fore,morethana thirdof thepopulationof

earlierfigure.Much of this increase has a countrylivesin citiesof the 100,000class
migration, (38.4 per cent in England and Wales in
obviouslycomefromrural-urban
in mod- 1951), the countrycan be describedas alclearlythemostmassivemigration
most completelyurbanized (81 per cent
erntimes.
In 1800 therewereapparentlyless than beingdesignatedas "urban" in theEnglish
50 citieswith100,000or moreinhabitants. case in 1951).We thushave todaywhatcan
This was less thanthenumberin themillion be called "urbanizedsocieties,"nationsin
class today and less than the numberof whichthegreatmajorityofinhabitants
live
foundin many in cities.The prospectis that,as timegoes
citiescurrently
100,000-plus
singlecountries.By 1950 therewere close on, a greaterand greaterproportion
of huto 900 cities of 100,000 or more people, manitywillbe membersof suchsocieties.
The questionmay be raised as to how
whichis morethanthenumberoftownsand
such an extremedegreeof worldurbanizacitiesof 5,000or morein 1800.
tionwillprovepossible.Who willgrowthe
TABLE 2
foodand fibersnecessaryforthe enormous
urbanpopulation?The answeris thatagriPERCENTAGEOF WORLD'SPOPULATION
culturemayproveto be an archaicmodeof
LIVING IN CITIES, BY REGIONS
production.
Already,oneofthegreatfactors
rise
giving
to
urbanization
is theratherlate
In Cities of In Cities of
and as yetveryincomplete
industrialization
20,000 Plus 100,000 Plus
of agriculture.
As farming
becomesincreas13
21
World..................
inglymechanizedand rationalized,fewer
41
47
Oceania.................
peopleare neededon theland. On theaverNorthAmerica(Canada
29
42
and U.S.A.)...
age,themoreurbanizeda country,
thelower
21
35
Europe (exceptU.S.S.R.)
is
its
rural
in
density.'3
If,
addition
to indus18
31
U.S.S.R .................
18
26
South America...........
trializedagriculture,
foodand fibercometo
Middle Americaand Caribbe increasingly
producedby manufacturing
12
21
bean..................
processesusing materialsthat utilize the
8
. 13
Asia (except U.S.S.R.) ..
5
9
Africa.. ................
sun'senergymoreefficiently
thanplantsdo,
thereis no technological
reasonwhynearly
all ofmankindcouldnotliveinconurbations
As yetthereis no indicationofa slacken- oflargesize.
ingof therateofurbanizationin theworld
as a whole.If thepresentrate shouldcon- THE REGIONAL PATTERN OF URBANIZATION
oftheearth'speotinue,morethana fourth
The highestlevels of urbanizationare
ple willbe livingin citiesof 100,000or more foundtoday in northwestern
Europe and
in theyear2000,and morethanhalfin the in thosenewregionswherenorthwest
Euroyear2050.For placesof20,000or more,the peanshavesettledand extendedtheirindusproportionsat the two dates would be trialcivilization.
The figures
are as shownin
like45 per centand 90 per cent. Table 2.'4 Oceania is themosturbanizedof
something
Whethersuch figuresprovetoo low or too
13See Kingsley Davis and Hilda Hertz, "Urhigh, they neverthelesssuggestthat the banization
and the Development of Pre-industrial
human species is movingrapidly in the Areas," EconomicDevelopmentand CulturalChange,
directionof an almost exclusivelyurban III (October, 1954), 6-26. See also the writer's
existence.We have used the proportionof paper, "Population and the Further Spread of
thepopulationin citiesof 20,000and 100,- Industrial Society," Proceedingsof the American
PhilosophicalSociety,XCV (February,1951), 10-13.
000 or moreas a convenientindexof differ- 14
From KingsleyDavis and Hilda Hertz, "The
encesand changesin degreeofurbanization. World Distributionof Urbanization,"
Bulletin of
Places of less than 20,000also fita demo- the International Statistical Institute, XXXIII,
of "urban."When,there- Part IV, 230.
graphicdefinition

THE ORIGIN AND GROWTH OF URBANIZATION IN THE WORLD

435

theworld'smajorregions,becauseAustralia 1930. Asia, for example,had only 22 per

and New Zealand are its principalcompo- centof the world'scitypopulationin 1900
nents.NorthAmericais next,ifit is defined but 34 percentofit in 1950,and Africahad
as includingonly Canada and the United 1.5 per centin 1900but 3.2 per centat the
States. The regions least urbanized are laterdate.
European
by northwest
With respectto urbanization,then,the
thoseleast affected
and thepreindusgap betweentheindustrial
culture,namely,Asia and Africa.
The figuresfor world regionsare less trialnationsis beginningto diminish.The
valuable forpurposesof analysisthan are less-developedparts of the world will
those for individualcountries.The latter eventually,it seems,beginin theirturnto
showclearlythat urbanizationhas tended move graduallytowarda saturationpoint.
economic As the degreeof urbanizationrises,it of
to reachitshighestpointwherever
productivityhas been greatest-that is, course becomesimpossiblefor the rate of
and ra- gain to continue.The growthin the urban
wheretheeconomyis industrialized
tionalized.This explainswhyurbanization proportionis made possibleby the moveis so closely associated with northwest mentofpeoplefromruralareasto thecities.
Europeansand theirculture,sincetheywere As theruralpopulationbecomesa progresrevolu- sivelysmallerpercentageof the total, the
fortheindustrial
mainlyresponsible
mosturbanizedcountries citiesno longercan drawon a noncitypopution.Ofthefifteen
in the world,all but one, Japan,are Euro- lationof any size. Yet in no countrycan it
pean in culture,and all but fourderivethat be said that the processof urbanizationis
Althoughtherehavebeenshort
orcentralpartof yetfinished.
culturefromthenorthwest
periods in recent times in England, the
Europe.
The rate of urbanizationin the older United States, and Japan when the city
slowerrate
industrialcountries,however,is slowing populationincreasedat a slightly
down.Duringthetwentyyearsfrom1870to than the rural,theseweremereinterludes
1890 Germany'sproportionin large cities in the ongoingbut ever slowerprogressof
morethandoubled;it nearlydoubledagain urbanconcentration.
from1890 to 1910; but from1910 to 1940
THE TENDENCY TOWARD METROPOLITAN
theincreasewas only36 percent.In Sweden
EXPANSION
thegainsloweddownnoticeablyafter1920.
In England and Wales the most rapid urThe continuanceof urbanizationin the
banizationoccurredbetween1811and 1851. world does not mean the persistenceof
Contraryto popularbelief,thefastestrate somethingthatremainsthe same in detail.
in theUnitedStatesoccurredbetween1861 A cityof a millioninhabitantstodayis not
and 1891. Since,as we noted earlier,there the sort of place that a city of the same
of urbanization numberwas in 1900 or in 1850. Moreover,
has been no slowing-down
in theworldas a whole,it mustbe that,as withtheemergenceofgiantcitiesoffiveto
the more establishedindustrialcountries fifteenmillion,somethingnew has been
countries added. Such cities are creaturesof the
have slackened,theless-developed
have exhibiteda fasterrate. In fact,such twentieth
century.Theirsheerquantitative
historicalevidenceas we have forunderde- difference
means a qualitative change as
velopedareasseemsto showthattheirrates well.
of urbanizationhave been risingin recent
One of themostnoticeabledevelopments
decades. This has been the case in Egypt, is theeverstronger
tendencyofcitiesto exwheretherateis higherafter1920thanbe- pand outward-a developmentalreadyobfore;inIndia,wherethefastesturbanization served in the nineteenthcentury.Since
has occurredsince 1941; in Mexico, where 1861,thefirstdate whenthecomparison
can
the speed-upbegan in 1921; and in Greece, be made,theOuterRingofGreaterLondon
morerapidlythanLondon
wherethe fastestperiodran from1900 to has beengrowing

436

THE AMERICAN JOURNAL OF SOCIOLOGY

itself.Frenchwriterspriorto 1900pointed areas, fortheircontinuedgrowth.Thompout the dispersivetendency,"5

as did Adna son showed that,the greaterthe distance
Weberin 1899.16Thereis no doubt,however, fromthe centerof thecity,the fasterthe
that theprocessof metropolitan
dispersion rate ofgrowth.'8
has increasedwithtime.This factis shown
The same forceswhichhave made expossiblehave also made
for the United States by comparingthe tremeurbanization
percentagegainsin populationmade by the metropolitandispersionpossible,and the
to further
central cities with those made by their dispersionitselfhas contributed
satellite areas in forty-four
metropolitan urbanizationby makinglargeconurbations
districtsfor which Thompson could get moreefficient
and moreendurable.The outcomparabledata goingback to 1900. The wardmovementof urbanresidences,ofurban servicesand commercial
establishments,
TABLE 3
and oflightindustry-allfacilitatedby imPERCENTAGE INCREASE IN POPULAprovementsin motor transportand com44 METROPOLITAN
TION
IN
munications-hasmade it possibleforhuge
DISTRICTS
IN THE
UNITED
agglomerations
to keep on growingwithout
STATES, 1900-1940
the inconveniencesof proportionateincreases in density. In many ways the
Rest of
Central
metropolisof three million today is an
Cities
Districts
easier place to live and workin than the
city of five hundredthousandyesterday.
38.2
1900-1910
33.6
23.4
31.3
1910-20.
Grantedthat the economicadvantagesof
1920-30.....
1930-40.....

20.5
4.2

48.7
13.0

TABLE 4
PERCENTAGEPOPULATIONINCREASE
OUTSIDE CENTRAL CITIES IN 44
METROPOLITANDISTRICTS

gainsare as shownin Table 3.17The difference increases,untilin 193040 thepopulamore

tionoutsidethecentralcityis growing
Urban
Rural
than threetimesas fastas that insidethe
Parts
Parts
centralcity. Furthermore,
Thompsonhas
43.2
1900-1910. 35.9
area
shown that withinthe metropolitan
34.5
1910-20.... 30.2
outsidethecentralcitiesit was the "rural"
68.1
1920-30.... 40.6
7.3
28.1
1930-40.....
parts whichgained fasterthan the urban
parts, as the percentage increases per
decade shownin Table 4, indicate.Clearly, urbanconcentration
stillcontinueand still
themetropolitan
districtswereincreasingly pushpopulationsin the directionof urbandependenton the areas outsidethe central ization, the effectof metropolitandiscities, and especially upon the sparsely persionis thusto minimizethe disadvansettled parts at the peripheryof these tagesof thiscontinuedurbangrowth.
The new typeof metropolitan
expansion
1' Paul Meuriot,Des agglomerations
urbainesdans
l'Europe contemporaine
(Paris: B6lin Freres,1898), occurring
in the highlyindustrialcountries
on themovement
of indus- is not withoutits repercussionsin lesspp. 249-78.Literature
of citiesis cited,
tryand peopleto theperiphery
discussionof the subjectgiven, developedlands as well.Most of the rapid
and a theoretical
in Ren6 Maunier,L'Origineet la fonction&conomique urbanizationnow occurringin Africaand
desvilles(Paris:Giard& Bri&re,
1910),pp. 231-314. Asia,forexample,is affected
by directcon16 Op. cit., pp. 458-75.
tact withindustrialnationsand by a con17
WarrenS. Thompson,The Growthof Metro- comitantrise in consumptionstandards.
politan Districts in the United States, 1900-1940 Althoughprivateautomobilesmay not be
D.C.: Government
(Washington,
PrintingOffice, available to the urbanmasses,bicyclesand
1948),p. 5. The pictureis muchthesameforthe bussesgenerally
are. Hence Brazzavilleand
districtsfordecadesin
of the

rest
metropolitan
couldbe established.
whichcomparability

18 Ibid., p.9.

THE ORIGIN AND GROWTHOF URBANIZATIONIN THE WORLD

Abidjan,Takoradi and Nairobi,Jamshedpur and New Delhi, Ankaraand Colombo,
are not evolvingin the same manneras
did the citiesof the eighteenthand nineteenthcenturies.Their ecologicalpattern,
their technologicalbase, their economic
activity,
all reflect
thetwentieth
century,
no
matterhow primitiveor backward their
hinterlands
maybe. Thus thefactthattheir
in thepresentcenmaingrowthis occurring
turyis notwithoutsignificance
forthekind
of citiestheyare turning
out to be.

437

How utrbanized
theworldwilleventually
become is an unanswerablequestion.As
stated earlier,thereis no apparentreason
whyit shouldnot becomeas urbanizedas
the mosturbancountriestoday-withperhaps 85-90percentofthepopulationliving
in cities and townsof 5,000 or more and
practicingurban occupations.Our present
degreeof urbanizationin advanced countriesis stillso new that we have no clear
idea of how such completeworldurbanization would affecthuman society;but the
chancesare that the effectswouldbe proFUTURE TRENDS IN WORLD
found.
URBANIZATION
In visualizingthe natureand effectsof
Speculation concerningthe future of completeurbanizationin the future,howurbanizationis as hazardousas that con- ever,one mustguardagainstassumingthat
cerningany otheraspectof humansociety. cities will retain theirpresentform.The
aggreFollowingthe directionof moderntrends, tendencyto formhugemetropolitan
decentralized
however,one may concludethat,withthe gates whichare increasingly
continuebutprobablywill
industrialrevolution,for the firsttime in willundoubtedly
historyurbanization
beganto reacha stage not go so far as to eliminatethe central
fromwhichtherewas no return.The cities businessdistrictaltogether,thoughit may
it may
and thedegree greatlyweakenit. At theperiphery,
ofantiquitywerevulnerable,
and thecountryofurbanization
reachedwas so thininmany wellbe thatthemetropolis
societiesas to be transitory.
Today virtually side, as the one expands and the other
of
world
is
more
everypart the
urbanized shrinks,will merge together,until the
than any regionwas in antiquity.Urban- boundariesof one sprawlingconurbation
izationis so widespread,so mucha part of will touchthoseof another,withno interat all. The world's
industrialcivilization,
and gainingso rapid- veningpurecountryside
ly, that any returnto rurality,even with populationdoublesitselftwicein a century,
major catastrophes,appears unlikely.On becomingat the same time highlyurbanthecontrary,
sinceeverycityis obsolescent ized, and as new sources of energyare
ofcentrifugal
metroto somedegree-moreobsolescenttheolder tapped,thepossibility
enhanced.If
it is-the massive destructionof many politangrowthis enormously
to workcouldbe donewiththe
would probably add eventually to the commuting
speedofsoundand cheaply,one wouldnot
impetusof urbangrowth.
The factthattherateofworldurbaniza- mindlivingtwo hundredmilesfromwork.
advancefromnow
tion has shown no slackeningsince 1800 Almostanytechnological
suggeststhatwe are farfromtheendofthis on is likelyto contributemoreto the centhanto thecentripetal
tendency.It
process,perhapsnot yet at the peak. Al- trifugal
turn
out thaturbanization
in thesense
may
thoughthe industrialcountrieshave shown
andconcentratthecountryside
a declinein theirrates,thesecountries,
be- ofemptying
cause theyembraceonlyabout a fourthof inghugenumbersin littlespace willreverse
theworld'spopulation,have notdampened itself-not,however,in the directionof repeopleto thefarmbutratherin that
of hu- turning
the worldtrend.The three-fourths
of
themmoreevenlyovertheland
spreading
who
counin
live
manity
underdeveloped
triesare stillin theearlystagesofan urban- for purposes of residenceand industrial
izationthatpromisesto be morerapidthan work."Rurality"wouldhave disappeared,
that whichoccurredearlierin the areas of leavingonlya newkindofurbanexistence.
northwest
Europeanculture.
COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY