MEMORANDUM

To:
From:
Date:
Subject:

Carl Weisbrod, Chairman of the NYC City Planning Commission

Gabriel Keehn, First-year Intern, Dept. of City Planning
November 8th, 2015
Recommendation report regarding the feasibility and benefit of banning
personal vehicles below 96th St in Manhattan.

Introduction
Over the past few weeks Ive had the privilege of performing research on the feasibility and
benefits of banning personal vehicles in Manhattan. My research included both primary
research, in the form of a public survey, and secondary research, mainly consisting of scholarly
journals and newspaper articles. Based on my research findings, detailed below, I can
confidently make the recommendation that The City of New York take steps over the course of
the next five to ten years to establish a personal vehicle ban encompassing all streets and
avenues below 96th Street.
Background
According to a 2013
population projection report
conducted by the Dept. of City
Planning, New Yorks overall
population was expected to
grow 3.7% between 2010 and
2020 to just over 8.5 Million
residents. i However, a 2014
population estimate conducted
by the US Census Bureau
indicates that New Yorks
population has almost already
reached that number, and is
expected to grow at the same
rate until the end of the
Figure 1. Data Courtesy
of theofNew
York
City
Dept.
Data courtesy
the New
York
City
Dept.ofofCity
CityPlanning and the
decade. ii
U.S. Census Bureau. Original graphic.
Planning and the U.S. Census Bureau.

With such a large influx of people into the

city, our
already crowded roads and public spaces
will only
become even more crowded. More people
means
more cars on the streets of Manhattan,
which
increases air pollution and intensifies the
risk of
injury to pedestrians and bicyclists. With
no way to
further expand our roads to accommodate more cars, there is a great need for planning
alternatives that can help to alleviate overcrowding, while remaining environmentally conscious.
Some European cities, such as Oslo and Hamburg, are adopting plans to ban personal vehicles
6

in their City Centers in order to combat overcrowding and reduce their overall effect on the
environment. iii This proposal will explore how the City of New York can adapt such radical
planning ideas to achieve a similar goal: to alleviate congestion, air pollution, and overcrowding,
while promoting cycling and walking in one of the largest cities on Earth.
Key Stakeholders
Residents of Manhattan
Manhattan, with a population of around 1.6 million people,iv is one of the most densely
populated regions in the world. According to a study conducted by the University of Michigan,v
56.5% of all households in Manhattan are already car free, meaning that over half of the
population must commute by means of walking, biking, taxi, or public transport. Going further, a
study on the demographics of taxi users organized by the Dept. of City Planning shows that
52% of all taxi users own their own car, but prefer to take a cab while commuting within the city.vi
Based on this information, it is clear that a majority of Manhattan residents either do not own a
car, or do not use their car to commute in the city. Despite this, according to primary research
that I conducted on the composition of road traffic in Manhattan, 38% of all road traffic consists
of personal vehicles. This suggests that if a ban on personal vehicles is adopted, residents of
Manhattan would remain largely unaffected.

Average Annual Subway Ridership 1901-2014

2500
2000
1500

Ridership (Millions) 1000

500
0

Year

Outer Borough
Commuters
Implementing a ban on personal vehicles in Manhattan would mean that the thousands of
commuters who drive onto The Island and park would need to find new ways to get to their
destination. In order to accommodate these people, the City and the State must invest into
public transportation. Currently, the New York City Subway System is experiencing a significant
increase in ridership from the Outer Boroughs, or any borough that isnt Manhattan. The MTA
reports that 2014 subway ridership hit a 65-year high of 1.75 billion trips, and ridership is only
expected to rise.vii If a ban on personal vehicles is to be implemented, it is extremely important
for Outer Borough commuters that both the City and the State heavily invest in overhauling New
York Citys aging subway network. Car-free cities are reliant upon an efficient, safe, and clean
7

public transportation network that serves the entire city, not just certain neighborhoods. Without
such a network, banning personal vehicles would be impossible.
Yellow Taxicabs/Uber
Yellow cabs are an iconic symbol of New York City, and without them the city would be much
different. Doing away with yellow cabs would not only create raucous public uproar, but it would
also leave the 600,000 passengers that yellow cabs service daily with no other option but to
flood the already overcrowded subway and bus systems.viii New York cannot afford to lose such
an important and iconic means of transportation, therefore yellow cab taxis should not only be
exempt from the personal vehicle ban, but the number of taxis on the streets of Manhattan
should be increased.
It is estimated that the current number of personal vehicles entering Manhattans Central
Business District, or the center of commerce and business in a city, on a regular business day is
Figure 2. Data Courtesy of the MTA. Original mark-up.
in upwards of 950,000 vehicles.ix
In contrast, the number of yellow cab taxis operating in Manhattan on a daily basis is just over
13,000.x With the implementation of a personal vehicle ban, the number of taxis in Manhattan,
along with the number of passengers they transport, could easily be increased in upwards of
one hundred percent while still significantly decreasing the total number of vehicles on the road.
Doubling the number of taxis could accommodate another 600,000 daily passengers,
significantly reducing the burden that banning personal vehicles would have on the public
transportation system.
Businesses
Businesses in Oslo and Hamburg fought against implementing a ban on personal vehicles in
those cities because they felt that, without cars, customers would be less likely to shop at their
stores. However, a recent study conducted by the organization Transportation Alternatives on
the differences between shoppers that commute by car and those that commute by means of
walking, biking, or public transit refutes this claim. xi TransAlts study showed that, in New York
City, not only are bikers,
walkers, and transit users more
likely to spend money at
businesses over those who
commute by car (see figure 3),
but they are also more likely to
visit local businesses
frequently. TransAlt concluded
that investment in public transit
and cycling infrastructure pays
big dividends for local
businessesxii and they strongly
encourage the Department of
Figure 3. Data and mark-up courtesy of Transportation Alternatives.
Transportation to increase such
investment.
8

Pedestrians/Bikers
Pedestrians and bikers in Manhattan are at a constant risk of injury from careless drivers who
view them as lesser than themselves. Not one week ago it was reported to the NYPD that a
driver in Chelsea ran over a pedestrians foot, then stopped to laugh before driving off.xiii This is
just one in an endless series of offenses committed by drivers that threaten the lives of
pedestrians and bikers in the City. Banning personal vehicles will reduce the risk of injury to
pedestrians due to a reduction in the number of careless drivers on the streets.
Primary Research
Over the past week I have developed and conducted a survey regarding the favorability of
banning personal vehicles in Manhattan. The survey was administered by my brother to random
passers-by on the streets of Midtown and Chelsea. A total of thirty two people were asked to
Figure 4. Primary means of transport around Manhattan. complete the survey, sixteen from each
Original data and mark-up.
neighborhood. Survey questions
assessed each respondents reason for visiting the neighborhood as well as their primary mode
of transportation to each neighborhood. In addition, it assessed each respondents opinion of
banning personal vehicles, and inquired about the effects of such a ban on their desire to shop
and live in Manhattan. Survey questions are attached at the end of this report.

Primary Means of Transport

8
7
6
5

Chelsea

Midtown

4
3
2
1
0

Bike

Walk

Subway

Bus

Car

Taxi

The survey revealed that most people on the streets of Chelsea were there because they lived
in the area, whereas most people in Midtown were there for work or to shop. No matter the
reason for being in the neighborhood, however, most respondents commuted to Chelsea and
Midtown by means of public transportation, taxi, walking, or biking. This data helps to support
the claim that most people living in Manhattan already choose to commute by any means other
than a personal vehicle.

Figure 5. Original data and mark-up.

Favorability of Banning Personal Vehicles

8
7
6
5
4
3

Chelsea

Midtown

2
1
0

Further results of the survey show

that both commuters in Midtown and Chelsea would be in favor of banning personal vehicles.
Respondents in Midtown, where traffic noise is high and access to public transportation is
plentiful, appear to be more favorable towards the ban than those in Chelsea. This could be
because public transit is not as accessible to residents of Chelsea as it is to residents of
Midtown.

10

Figure 7. Original data and mark-up.

11

Figure 6. Original data and mark-up.

12

Inclination to Live Where Vehicles are Banned

12
10
8
6
4
2
0

More Inclined

Neutral
Chelsea

Less Inclined

Midtown

Inclination to Shop Where Vehicles are Banned

12
10
8
6
4
2
0

More Inclined

Neutral
Chelsea

Less Inlined

Midtown

Finally, a majority of respondents from

both Midtown and Chelsea said that banning personal vehicles in their respective
neighborhoods would make them more inclined to both shop and live there.
In addition to this survey, I conducted observational research on the composition of everyday
traffic in New York City. My observations were conducted by reviewing street camera footage of
the intersection of 5th Avenue and 48th Street in the heart of Manhattan. I observed and recorded
the number of taxis, personal vehicles, trucks/commercial vehicles, and bicycles that passed
through the intersection for five minutes at the top of every hour starting at 5A.M. and
concluding at 11P.M. Based off of this data I was able to predict the average composition of
traffic on the streets of Manhattan, displayed in Figure 8 and Figure 9 (attached).
13

Based on my primary research, I was able to

conclude that personal vehicles make up
roughly 38% of all traffic in Manhattan on any
regular business day, with this percentage
increasing during morning and evening rush
hours. Rush Hour occurs when a large number
of commuters occupy the road network at the
same time, generally in the morning and
evening. Because personal vehicles make up
such a significant portion of daily road traffic a
ban on personal vehicles would effectively limit
the amount of traffic on the streets, which
would increase pedestrian safety, reduce air
pollution, and make the city a more pleasant
place to live.

Figure 8. Original data and mark-up.

Feasibility
Invest in Alternate Forms of Transportation
As described above, if personal vehicles are banned in Manhattan, all the trips that would
normally be accommodated by car would have to be replaced through public transportation.
Therefore, funding for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, the organization in charge of
running New Yorks public transportation systems, would have to be drastically increased. The
MTA recently submitted a budget proposal to the City and State of New York stating that it
required $32 Billion in funding in order to meet demand and improve deteriorating
infrastructure.xiv Currently, the City and State have pledged to allocate a total of $19 Billion in
funds for the organization, drastically less then what is required to keep the system up to date.xv
Banning personal vehicles would significantly increase ridership on the subway and bus
networks, which would mean funding the MTAs budget plan is a requirement.
In addition to investing in the Citys public transit networks, New York must also increase the
number of taxi medallions sold annually in order to increase the number of taxis on the streets.
Taxi Medallions are licenses issued by the New York Taxi and Limousine Commission that
authorize the driver to pick up passengers in Manhattan. Each medallion is sold for upwards of
one million dollars, and increasing the number of medallions sold could raise billions in revenue
for the City that could be invested in the MTA.xvi Increasing the number of taxis would also help
to offset the displacement of trips created by eliminating personal vehicles.

Figure 10, courtesy of the NYC Department of City Planning's 2014

Taxicab Fact Book Report.

14

Finally, with a decrease in the

number of vehicles on the road,
less space will be needed to
accommodate cars. This extra
space could be used to increase
the size of sidewalks in order to
accommodate more pedestrians. It
could also be used to increase the
size and number of bike lanes,
making biking in Manhattan easier,
safer, and more attractive to
residents. Banning personal
vehicles and investing in expanding
pedestrian and bike infrastructure will promote a healthy and active lifestyle as well as make the
streets safer for these commuters.
Transit Oriented Development
Transit Oriented Development refers to the development of neighborhoods built around public
transportation stations with the goal of eliminating the need for cars. Implementing a transit
oriented approach to new and existing development in Manhattan means forbidding the creation
of any new parking garages as well as moving existing garages out of the Borough. In order for
residents who live in Manhattan and own a car to be able to continue to do both, we must move
public parking garages out of the core of Manhattan and relocate them near public transit
stations in the Outer Boroughs and New Jersey.
Timeframe
All of the changes proposed would need to happen over a period of five to ten years, in order for
the public to have enough time to adapt to the changes brought to the City by the ban.
Benefits
Less Air Pollution
According to the EPA, the personal automobile is the single greatest polluter in the urban
environment.xvii In New York City, air pollution contributes to approximately 2,300 premature
deaths, 4,800 emergency department visits for asthma, and 1,500 hospitalizations for
respiratory and cardiovascular disease yearly.xviii These deaths are unnecessary and can be
prevented through limiting the number of personal vehicles allowed in the City. A ban on
personal vehicles would decrease air pollution levels in Manhattan, increasing public health and
making New York a more attractive place to live.
Safer Pedestrian/Bike Zones
The reduction of cars on the streets will greatly reduce the risk of injury to pedestrians and
bikers due to careless drivers, making those forms of transportation safer and more attractive to
residents of Manhattan.
15

More Greenspace
Less traffic in Manhattan, due to the vehicle ban, would decrease the need for so many lanes in
the streets, which will free up space for the addition of more greenery. Studies have shown that
those who perceived their neighborhood as highly green had 1.37 to 1.60 times higher odds of
better physical and mental health.xix Replacing personal vehicles with greenery in Manhattan
will have great benefits for both mental and physical public health.
Final Recommendation
Based off of the information gathered in this report, I recommend that the city of New York begin
drafting policies that will lead to the eventual removal of all personal vehicles in Manhattan.
Doing so will require large investments into the expansion of New Yorks public transportation
networks, the expansion of bike and pedestrian infrastructure throughout the City, and an
increase in the number of taxis operating in Manhattan. Implementation of my recommendation
will reduce air pollution levels in the city, increase greenspace, and make biking and walking in
Manhattan safer and more enjoyable. All of these things will help to make New York a more
pleasant, clean, healthy, and attractive city.
Thank you for taking the time to look over my research. Feel free to contact me with any further
questions or concerns regarding my final recommendation.
CC: None
Resources
Survey Questions
This survey was distributed to a total of 32 people on the streets of Midtown and Chelsea.
1. Why are you in this neighborhood today?
a) Work
b) Shopping
c) School
d) Live in the area
e) Strolling
a. What is your primary means of transportation to this neighborhood?
a) Bike
b) Walk
c) Subway
d) Bus
e) Car
f) Taxi
a. Would you be favorable towards banning cars and increasing bike routes/public
transportation in this neighborhood?
a) Very favorable
b) Favorable
c) Neutral
d) Unfavorable
e) Very unfavorable

16

a. If cars were banned in this neighborhood, would you be more or less inclined to shop
here?
a) More inclined
b) Neutral
c) Less inclined
a. If cars were banned in this neighborhood, would you be more or less inclined to live
here?
a) More inclined
b) Neutral
c) Less inclined

17

Composition of Traffic in Manhattan

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
5am

6am

7am

8am

9am 10am 11am 12pm 1pm

2pm

3pm

Cars
Trucks/Commercial Vehicles

4pm

5pm

Taxis
Bikes

6pm

7pm

8pm

9pm 10pm 11pm

13

Figure 9. Original data and mark-up.

14

Table of Figures
Figure 1: New Yorks Rising Population

Figure 2: Average Annual Subway Ridership 1901-2014

Figure 3: Total Aggregate Spending by Transportation Mode

Figure 4: Primary Means of Transport

Figure 5: Favorability of Banning Personal Vehicles

Figure 6: Inclination to Shop Where Vehicles are Banned

10

Figure 7: Inclination to Live Where Vehicles are Banned

10

Figure 8: Percent of Total Traffic

10

Figure 9: Composition of Traffic in Manhattan

14

Figure 10: Average Annual Medallion Sale Price

11

15

iEndnotes
New York City. Department of City Planning. Population Division. New York City Population Projections by
Age/Sex and Borough 2010-2040. By Joseph J. Salvo, Arun Perer Lobo, and Erica Mauer. New York City:
Department of City Planning, 2013. Web. 7 Nov. 2015.

ii "New York (city) QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau." New York (city) QuickFacts from the US
Census Bureau. The U.S. Census Bureau, 14 Oct. 2015. Web. 07 Nov. 2015.
iii Boyce, Russell. "Oslo Aims to Make City Center Car-free within Four Years." Reuters. Thomson
Reuters, 19 Oct. 2015. Web. 07 Nov. 2015.
iv New York City. New York City Population Projections...
v Sivak, Michael. Has Motorization in the U.S. Peaked? University of Michigan Transportation
Research Institute. University of Michigan, Jan. 2014. Web. 3 Nov. 2015.
vi Yassky, David. 2014 Taxicab Factbook. Rep. New York City: New York City Taxi and Limousine
Commission, 2014. Print.
vii Miller, Stephen. "Subway Ridership Hits 65-Year High. Does Cuomo Care?" Streetsblog New York
City. Streetsblog, 20 Apr. 2015. Web. 07 Nov. 2015.
viii Yassky
ix New York City. Department of City Planning. Transportation Division. Manhattan Core Public
Parking Study. By Jake Schmidt and Eric Kober. New York City: Department of City Planning, 2011.
Print.
x Yassky
xi East Village Shoppers Study. Rep. New York City: Transportation Alternatives, 2012. Print.
xii East Village
xiii Hogan, Gwynne. "Driver Laughs After Running Over Elderly Man's Foot, Police Say." DNAinfo New
York. DNAinfo, 30 Oct. 2015. Web. 07 Nov. 2015.
xiv Metropolitan Transportation Authority July Financial Plan 2016-2019. Rep. New York City:
Metropolitan Transportation Authority, 2015. Print.
xv Metropolitan Transportation
xvi Yassky
xvii Automobile Emissions: An Overview. Publication. United States: Environmental Protection Agency,
1994. Print.
xviii New York City Trends in Air Pollution and Its Health Consequences. Rep. New York City:
Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, 2013. Print.
xix Sugiyama, T., E. Leslie, B. Giles-Corti, and N. Owen. Associations of Neighborhood Greenness
with Physical and Mental Health: Do Walking, Social Coherence and Local Social Interaction Explain
the Relationships? Jech.bmj.com. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 14 Oct. 2007.
Web. 5 Nov. 2015.