MODUL I

DEMAND MANAGEMENT

1.1.

Pengumulan Data
Tabel 1 Data Demand Historis

1.2. Pengolahan Data

1.2.1. Perhitungan Forecasting Menggunakan
Software Winq-SB

30000
25000
20000
Periode

15000

Demand

10000
5000
0
1

10 11 12

Gambar 1 Plot Data Demand

Tabel 2 Perhitungan Single Moving Average

Tabel 3 Perhitungan Single Exponensial Smoothing

Tabel 4 Perhitungan Linear Regresi

Tabel 5 Perbandingan Error

1.2.2. Perhitungan Forecasting Menggunakan Cara Manual

Tabel 6 Perhitungan Forecasting Menggunakan Metode Linear Regresi

Contoh Perhitungan :
x
x =
n
x =

y =

78
=6,5
12

y
n

y =

323014
=26917,83 3
12

b=

x . yn( x . y )
x 2n .( x )2

b=

20987512(6.5 x 26917,8 33) 835,974

=
=5,846
143
54,19712 .(6,4)2

a= y b ( x )
a=26917,833(5,846) ( 6,5 )
a=26955,832

Forecasting Pada Periode 1

ft =ab ( x )

ft =26955,832(5,846) ( 1 )
ft =26949,986

Forecasting Pada Periode 2

ft =ab ( x )
ft =26955,832(5,846) ( 2 )
ft =26944,14 0

Menghitung fe Periode 1
fe=At Ft
fe=2654326949,986
fe=406,986

Menghitung fe Periode 1
fe=At Ft
fe=2718326944,140
fe=238,860

Menghitung Pe Periode 1
|fe|
Pe=
At
Pe=

|406,986|
26543

Pe=0,015

Menghitung Pe Periode 1
|fe|
Pe=
At

Pe=

|238,860|
27183

Pe=0,009

Menghitung Error
|fe|
MAD=
n
MAD=

2494,436
9

MAD=207,8695

fe 2

MS E=
n

MS E=

626206282
12

MS E=52183,85 7

MAPE=100 x

MAPE=100 x
MAPE=0,76 7

1.3.
1.4.
1.5.

Analisa
G
G

pe
n

0,092
12