21.10.

2014

Brain Teasers

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HEDGEHOGS, IPODS, BIRTHDAYS:

Puzzlestoponderaheadofyourinterview.

How many words are there in the daily edition of The Times? How many songs are stored on iPods in the UK? How many spikes
are there on the back of a hedgehog? These and other provocative questions await you, in preparation for your interview with
Oliver Wyman.

FOOTBALL
Inanaverageweek,domorepeopleplayfootball,orwatchafootballmatch?

Morepeopleplayfootballthanwatchafootballmatch.
Thekeytoapproachingmarketsizingtypequestionsis:tostartbyclarifyingthequestionthentoidentifyanyassumptionsyoucanmaketosimplify
theproblemnexttobreakdowntheproblemlogically,beforefinallygettingintothedetailofthenumbers.Interviewerswillbeimpressedwithpeople
whocanapproachaproblemconceptually,andalsowhocanfindwaysofgettingtoaroughlyrightor"80/20"versionofthetruthquickly,whichcan

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berefinedlater.
Startbyraisinganyquestionsyouhavetoclarifytheparametersoftheanalysis.Inthiscase,youmightwanttoconfirmthat"watchingamatch"
meanswatchingamatchinperson,notonTVandthat"playinginamatch"meansplayinginanorganizedmannerwith2fullteamsandadefined
pitch,ratherthanakickaboutwithfriendsinthelocalpark,orwithyourchildreninthegarden.Footballcouldinclude5asideaswellasfullXIs,but
doesnotincludenonstandardfootball,e.g.EtonFivesorothervariants.
Therearenormallysomesimplifyingassumptionstomakeupfront
andyoushouldalwayslaytheseouttotheinterviewerandconfirms/heis

happywiththem,beforeproceeding.Theassumptionsinthisexamplecouldbe:
AssumewearetalkingaboutpeopleinEngland
andthattheconclusionforEnglandwillbethesameasfortherestoftheU.K,asthereisno

structuralreasontobelievetheothernationsbehavedifferently
Assumewearetalkingaboutdistinctindividualsrather>thanplayedoccasions
sopeopleplaying>onceaweek>orwatching>onceaweek

doesnotcount
Assumeyouonlyneedtoprovethatthenumberplayingisgreater/lessthanthenumberwatching
ratherthantheabsolutenumbersinvolved

ineach.
Onceyou'veclarifiedthescopeandagreedyoursimplifyingassumptions,youcanstartlayingoutalogicalstructuretobreakingdowntheproblem.
Forthisquestion,oneapproachwouldbetostartbylistingoutallthedifferentplayingandwatching"occasions".Thisallowsyoutoshowyour
interviewerthatyou'veconsideredtheproblemasawhole,ratherthandivingdownaparticularlineofargument
andalsoallowsthemtoalertyou

toanythingyou'vemissed.Don'tbeafraidtouseapieceofpapertowritethesedown.
Forexample,anoccasionlistmightlooklike:

Children
SchoolPElessons
Interschoolmatches
Otherchildren'smatches(countyorotherlocalleagues)

Adults
Adultamateur:5aside,localSundayleagues,companyteamsetc
Adultprofessional:PremierLeagueetc.
Onceyoulaidouttheoccasions,youshouldthenprioritisewhichonestoanalyse,inthiscase,basedon:
a).Doyoubelievethenumbersofplayersvsspectatorswillbeasymmetric,ordotheplayersandspectatorscanceleachotherout?Ifcancelingout,
youcanignoretheoccasion,forthepurposesoftheanalysis(remember,youdon'tneedtoknowhowmany,justmoreorless)
b).Whichoccasionscontributethemosttototalplayerorspectatornumbers:youshouldalwaysfocusyoureffortsonthe"bigticket"itemswhichwill
havethemostimpactonthefinalsolution.
A"prioritizationmatrix"mightlooklike:

Thelogicbehindthisprioritizationisasfollows:
Mostchildren(especiallyboys)willplayfootballatschool,buttherearerarelyanynonplayingspectatorsotherthanthePEteacher
Achildplayinginamatch(schoolorotherleague)willonaveragebring1parentorotherfriendtowatch
sothenumberplayingandthenumber

watchingwillcancelout
Practicallynoonewatchesadultsplayamateurfootballonaregularbasis
Professional,i.e.League,footballplayersareasmallproportionofalladultsplayingfootball
andcertainlyinproportiontothenumberof

spectators
Thisleavesuswithtwooccasionsinfavourofplayers
SchoolPE(significant)andAdultAmateur(unknown)andoneoccasioninfavourof

spectators
AdultProfessional(significant).Therefore,ifyoucanprovethatSchoolPEisgreaterthanAdultProfessional,youcananswerthe

question,withoutneedingtoworkoutthenumberofAdultAmateurplayers(currentlyunknown).First,startbyworkingouthowmanychildrenplay
footballinschool

a)HowmanyschoolagechildrenarethereinEngland?
Englishpopulation=50m(youwouldbeexpectedtoknowthis/knowthatthetotalUKpopulationisaround60m,andmostofthisisinEngland)
Yearsofschoolplayingregularmatches=9

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(Ages7
16,asmostdon'tstartPEintheirfirstfewyearsatschool,andtendtostopplayinginSixthForm,orleaveschool)

Therefore,totalchildren=2m/3*9=2m*3=6m
Thereareactually7.5mchildreninschoolintheUK,so6mofmatchplayingageinEnglandseemssensible.
b)Ofschoolagechildren,howmanyplayfootball?
Remember,youarelookingfortheminimumlikelynumber,toproveitismorethanpeoplewatchingfootball,ratherthantheactual.
Youshouldalsobearinmindthattheproportionofchildrenplayingisverydifferentforgirlsthanboys.Acautiousminimumestimatecouldbe

Proportion of girls

= 0%

Proportion of boys

=25%

Therefore, total players =0%*(6m/2)+25%*(6m/3)

=25%*(6m/2)
=750,000

Therefore,theminimumlikelynumberofpeopleplayingfootballinanaverageweekis750,000.

Next,workouthowmanypeoplewatchprofessionalfootball.
Therearetwodimensionstothetotalnumberofspectators:
numberofmatches*numberofspectatorspermatch.
a)Howmanyprofessionalmatchesarethereperweek?
Assumethateachprofessionalteamplayseachweek.

Number of matches = number of professional teams / 2

=92/2
=46

Youmayknowthenumberofprofessionalteamsalready
butdon'tworryifyoudon't.Thebestapproachistobreakitdownfurther

intonumber

ofleagues*teamsperleague.Ifyouassumethereare4leagues,and20
25teamsperleague,thisgivesyouarangeof80

100teams,oran

averageof90teamstherefore45matches.
Theinterviewerwillletyouknowifyouarecompletelywrongonthenumber:thekeythingistoshowalogicalapproachtoestimation.

b)Whatistheattendanceateachmatch?
Thefirstthinktobearinmindisthatattendancewillvarysignificantlybetweenthedifferentleagues
sothePremierLeaguewouldhavemuch

higherattendancethanDivision2.YoucouldstartbyassumingthateachLeaguehashalftheattendancepermatchthanthepreviousleague.This
meansyouonlyneedtoestimatetheaverageattendanceataPremierLeaguematch.

Premier League total = 30k (this is an estimate)

Other Leagues total

=30/2+30/4+30/8
=15k+8k+4k(roundup)

All Leagues total

=30k+15k+8k+4k
=57k

All Leagues average

=57k/4
=approx15k

Theactualnumberforaverageattendanceis15.4k,soveryclosetothisnumber.

c)Whatisthetotalaverageattendance?
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Total attendance = matches * spectators per match

=45*15k
=675k(youcanmultiplythisoutlonghand)

Therefore,thelikelynumberofpeoplewatchingprofessionalfootballis675k.
675kislessthanthe750kminimumestimateforchildrenplayingfootball,whichdoesnotincludethenumberofadultsplayingamateurfootball.
Therefore,morepeopleplayfootballthanwatchfootballinanaverageweek.

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