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Strategi Investasi

Strategi Investasi

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Published by: madjuh on May 14, 2008
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STRATEGI INVESTASI

MENGAPA BERINVESTASI?
Untuk melindungi kekayaan (aset) terhadap pengaruh inflasi Untuk mendapatkan keuntungan yang lebih besar dimasa yang akan datang Untuk mengantisipasi ketidakpastian pendapatan dimasa yang akan datang

Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal dan Lembaga Keuangan DEPARTEMEN KEUANGAN REPUBLIK INDONESIA

COMMON MISCONCEPTION
Investasi pada saham hampir sama dengan judi Efek Pendapatan Tetap (obligasi) memiliki pendapatan yang tetap Produk reksa dana adalah produk bank Produk reksa dana mirip dengan deposito
Land Property

KEMANA BERINVESTASI?

Physical Assets

Financial Assets

Vehicles Precious metals

Capital market

Money market

1

INVESTASI DI PASAR UANG
Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (SBI) Deposito Berjangka (Time Deposits) Commercial Papers Promissory Notes Obligasi yang jatuh tempo kurang dari 1 (satu) tahun

INVESTASI DI PASAR MODAL Saham (Stocks) Obligasi (Bonds) Reksa Dana (Investment Funds) Derivatives

RISK/RETURN TRADEOFF

RISK/RETURN TRADEOFF
Risk / Return Characteristics

Saham
Return
Low Risk Low Return High Risk High Potential Return

Return

Obligasi Reksa Dana Deposito

Standard Deviation (Risk)

Risk

2

RISK FROM AN INVESTORS PERSPECTIVE
Equities Issuer Specific Risk Investors Bonds and Cash
Political risk Business Risk Credit Risk Liquidity Risk Operational Risk Legal Risk

HOW INVESTORS CAN MANAGE RISKS
Don’t put all eggs in one basket, i.e. diversify Take a long-term view Do not market time, try dollar cost averaging instead Choose the level of risk they are comfortable with

Market Risk

FX risk Economic Risk

Reksa Dana

Perhaps the best advice.... Perhaps the best advice.... Do not invest in anything you don’t understand! Do not invest in anything you don’t understand!

DIVERSIFICATION
$1,500 Mid-1970s Recession Diversified Portfolio Stocks $1,500 1987 Market Crash Diversified Portfolio Stocks $1,324

TIPE-TIPE INVESTOR
Conservative Investors Moderate Investors Aggressive Investors

$1,149 $1,014 $1,000

$1,227

$1,000

$500 Dec 1972 Dec 1973 Dec 1974 Jun 1976

$500 Jun 1987 Jun 1988 Jun 1989 Dec 1990

Diversified Portfolio: 35% stocks, 40% bonds, 25% Treasury bills. Hypothetical value of $1,000 invested at month-end December 1972 and June 1987, respectively

Source: Ibbotson Associates.

3

SEBELUM BERINVENTASI…
Tujuan investasi
Keamanan Dana Keamanan Dana dan Pendapatan Pendapatan dan Pertumbuhan Pertumbuhan

STRATEGI INVESTASI

Buy and Hold Strategy Active Strategy

Jangka waktu investasi Tingkat risiko yang sanggup ditanggung Keadaan keuangan Pengetahuan
Tentang investasi secara umum Tentang produk yang akan dibeli

BUY AND HOLD
Conservative Investors

BUY AND HOLD
Moderate Investors

Stock 30% Bond 40%
Stock 50%

Bond 30%

Money Market 30%

Money Market 20%

4

BUY AND HOLD
Aggressive Investors

ACTIVE STRATEGY
Assets Allocation (Where)

Bond 20%

Securities Selection (Which) Market Timing (When)

Money Market 10% Stock 70%

MAKING THE RIGHT ASSETS ALLOCATION DECISION
Determinants of Portfolio Performance 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
4% Securities Selection Asset Allocation 2% Market Timing 94%

ASSETS ALLOCATION
Stock

Agg

Mod Con 0 20 40 60 80 100

5

ASSETS ALLOCATION
Bond

ASSETS ALLOCATION
Money Market

Agg

Agg

Mod

Mod

Con 0 20 40 60 80 100

Con 0 20 40 60 80 100

SECURITIES SELECTION
Big cap vs. small cap stocks Growth vs. value stocks Short-term vs. long term bonds Fixed rate vs. variable rate

BIG CAP VS SMALL CAP
BIG CAP
Focus Company Characteristics Risks Return
Emphasis on large and well-established companies Reliable sales and dividends Usually diversified, so risk is low Moderate returns that include dividends

SMALL CAP
Emphasis on small, emerging, and start-up companies Sales and earnings fluctuate, dividends are minor Un-diversified, so volatility of earnings and risk is high No dividends but potentially high or low capital appreciation

6

GROWTH VS VALUE
GROWTH
Focus Company Characteristics Risks Return
Emphasis on growing companies High P/E ratio

LONG TERM VS SHORT TERM BOND

VALUE
Emphasis on companies whose market value are low relative to earnings, dividends, or assets

LONG TERM
Price Sensitivity
Higher

SHORT TERM
Lower

Low P/E ratio

Tend to be more volatile High cap appreciation with little or no dividends

Tend to be less volatile Moderate or low capital appreciations with high dividends

FIXED RATE VS VARIABLE RATE

VALUASI OBLIGASI
4

Analisa berdasarkan prinsip Time Value of Money (TVM) Harga obligasi: Vb = Σ
INT (1 + kd)t + M (1 + kd)N

4

Fixed
Sensitivity to interest rate
Higher

Variable
Lower

Kd = imbal hasil yang diharapkan investor N M t = lama jatuh tempo obligasi = nilai pari obligasi = 1 sampai dengan N INT = jumlah pembayaran bunga

7

CONTOH SOAL
Perusahaan XYZ menerbitkan obligasi sebesar Rp. 100 milyar dengan tingkat bunga tetap 12% pertahun dan jatuh tempo dalam 3 tahun. Tingkat imbal hasil yang diharapkan investor atas obligasi ini adalah 10%. Berapakah harga pasar obligasi tersebut?

MARKET TIMING
Mengapa pasar bisa naik turun?
Pasar akan naik apabila banyak investor yang menempatkan dananya di pasar modal Pasar akan turun apabila banyak investor yang menarik dananya dari pasar modal

Vb =

12 M (1 + 10%)1

+

12 M (1 + 10%)2

+

12 M (1 + 10%)3

+

100 M (1 + 10%)3

=

Rp. 104.973.703.982 atau 104.97%

MARKET CYCLE
Big cap growth stocks Long term bonds
Recession
4 3 1 2

EARLY RECOVERY
Inflasi rendah atau dalam trend yang menurun Ekonomi berkembang tapi belum membawa pengaruh terhadap naiknya inflasi Investasi di:

Small cap growth stocks Intermediate bonds
Early Recovery

Stagflation

Late Recovery

Small cap growth stocks Intermediate bonds

Big cap value stocks Short term bonds

Small cap value stocks Intermediate bonds

8

LATE RECOVERY

STAGFLATION
Inflasi naik dengan tajam Ekonomi mulai bergerak lambat
Investasi di: Large cap value stocks Short term bonds

Inflasi mulai bergerak naik Ekonomi berkembang pesat
Investasi di: Small cap value stocks Intermediate term bonds

RECESSION

PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION FOR EACH STAGE
Conservative Moderate
70% stocks 25% bonds 5% cash 50% stocks 10% bonds 40% cash 30% stocks 25% bonds 45% cash 40% stocks 45% bonds 15% cash

Aggressive
90% stocks 10% bonds 0% cash 70% stocks 0% bonds 30% cash 50% stocks 10% bonds 40% cash 60% stocks 30% bonds 10% cash

Inflasi menurun tajam Ekonomi masih bergerak sangat lambat Early Recovery Late Recovery Stagflation
50% stocks 40% bonds 10% cash 30% stocks 20% bonds 50% cash 10% stocks 10% bonds 80% cash 15% stocks 65% bonds 20% cash

Investasi di:
Large cap growth stocks Long Term bonds

Recession

9

MARKET TIMING & VOLATILITY

150% 125% 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% -25% -50% -75% Small Company Stocks Large Company Stocks Government Bonds Treasury Bills
Source: IbbotsonAssociates

Reduction of Risk over Time — 1926-2002

DOLLAR COST AVERAGING
Definisi Menempatkan dana secara bertahap pada suatu portofolio untuk menghindari risiko fluktuasi harga dalam jangka pendek Tujuan Mengurangi risiko investasi Mendapatkan hasil yang lebih baik

1-Year Holding Periods 5-Year Holding Periods 20-Year Holding Periods Compound Annual Return

12.1%

10.2%

5.5%

3.8%

Each bar shows the range of compound annual returns for each asset class over the period 1926-2002

DOLLAR COST AVERAGING
NAB
1.000 500 750

STRATEGI INVESTASI

Penempatan Dana
10.000.000 0 0

Jumlah UP
10.000 0 0

Hasil Investasi
1.000 x 10.000 = 10.000.000 500 x 10.000 750 x 10.000 = 5.000.000 = 7.500.000

NAB
1.000 500 750

Penempatan Dana
4.000.000 3.000.000 3.000.000

Jumlah UP
4.000 6.000 4.000

Hasil Investasi
1.000 x 4.000 = 4.000.000 500 x 10.000 750 x 14.000 = 5.000.000 = 10.500.000

10

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