PERIOD

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

DEMAND
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24

EYE INSPECTION
INTERCEPT
SLOPE

8
2

EXCEL
INTERCEPT
SLOPE
D8
CORRELATION

8
2
24
1

NOTES

PERFECT RELATIONSHIP

DEMAND HOLTS AND WINTERS

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Holts Model
Sales
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Total

Year 1
3001
3103
3306
3402
3509
3604
3705
3808
3501
3303
3207
3100
40549

Year 2
3110
3250
3409
3525
3623
3734
3805
3909
3620
3409
3302
3206
41902

Year 3
3151
3265
3453
3555
3665
3752
3859
3966
3676
3475
3389
3299
42505

Year 4
3226
3327
3534
3628
3723
3821
3928
4027
3725
3529
3422
3321
43211

Year 5
3351
3453
3655
3756
3866
3987
4055
4145
3875
3653
3556
3476
44828

p = 12
(even)
Smoothing Constants
Alpha =
0.5

Year

Month

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC

Period
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Demand Dt
3001
3103
3306
3402
3509
3604
3705
3808
3501
3303
3207
3100
3110
3250
3409
3525
3623
3734
3805
3909
3620
3409
3302
3206

Level
3354.41
3180.87
3100.14
3161.99
3276.91
3419.15
3560.23
3692.21
3812.90
3718.52
3517.95
3315.93
3134.18
3039.77
3080.12
3222.26
3398.02
3566.64
3720.54
3836.36
3938.43
3837.60
3627.29
3414.06
3231.43

Beta =

0.5

Trend
6.34
-83.60
-82.17
-10.16
52.38
97.31
119.19
125.59
123.14
14.38
-93.10
-147.56
-164.65
-129.53
-44.59
48.78
112.27
140.45
147.17
131.49
116.78
7.98
-101.17
-157.20
-169.91

Forecast
3360.75
3097.28
3017.97
3151.83
3329.30
3516.46
3679.42
3817.80
3936.04
3732.90
3424.85
3168.37
2969.53
2910.23
3035.52
3271.04
3510.29
3707.09
3867.72
3967.85
4055.21
3845.58
3526.12
3256.86

3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6

JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC

25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72

3151
3265
3453
3555
3665
3752
3859
3966
3676
3475
3389
3299
3226
3327
3534
3628
3723
3821
3928
4027
3725
3529
3422
3321
3351
3453
3655
3756
3866
3987
4055
4145
3875
3653
3556
3476

3106.26
3111.86
3246.94
3417.00
3591.53
3740.66
3871.56
3987.37
3894.93
3693.48
3495.13
3324.43
3196.22
3190.06
3324.71
3491.36
3656.35
3804.50
3936.20
4049.50
3949.53
3745.41
3535.75
3351.98
3267.35
3296.95
3451.76
3630.48
3806.22
3969.53
4089.56
4185.93
4088.88
3875.89
3665.17
3492.52

-147.54
-70.97
32.06
101.06
137.79
143.46
137.18
126.50
17.03
-92.21
-145.28
-157.99
-143.10
-74.63
30.01
98.33
131.66
139.91
135.80
124.55
12.29
-95.92
-152.79
-168.28
-126.45
-48.43
53.19
115.95
145.85
154.58
137.30
116.84
9.90
-101.55
-156.13
-164.39
Forecasts

3061.52
2958.72
3040.89
3279.00
3518.06
3729.32
3884.12
4008.74
4113.87
3911.96
3601.27
3349.86
3166.43
3053.12
3115.43
3354.73
3589.69
3788.00
3944.41
4072.01
4174.06
3961.82
3649.49
3382.96
3183.70
3140.90
3248.52
3504.95
3746.43
3952.06
4124.11
4226.86
4302.77
4098.78
3774.34
3509.04
3328
3164
2983
2818
2654
2490
2325
2161
1996
1832
1668
1503

Et

At

bias

MSE

MAD

Percent
Error

MAPE

TS

?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error:

?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

Winter's Model
Sales
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Total

Year 1
3001
3103
3306
3402
3509
3604
3705
3808
3501
3303
3207
3100
40549

Year 2
3110
3250
3409
3525
3623
3734
3805
3909
3620
3409
3302
3206
41902

Year 3
3151
3265
3453
3555
3665
3752
3859
3966
3676
3475
3389
3299
42505

Year 4
3226
3327
3534
3628
3723
3821
3928
4027
3725
3529
3422
3321
43211

Year 5
3351
3453
3655
3756
3866
3987
4055
4145
3875
3653
3556
3476
44828

p = 12
(even)
Smoothing Constants
Alpha =
0.0003957008

Year

Month

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2

JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN

Period
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Demand
Dt
3001
3103
3306
3402
3509
3604
3705
3808
3501
3303
3207
3100
3110
3250
3409
3525
3623
3734

Level
3354.409
3360.737
3367.051
3373.360
3379.663
3385.962
3392.257
3398.553
3404.851
3411.141
3417.422
3423.694
3429.950
3436.212
3442.492
3448.775
3455.070
3461.375
3467.692

Trend
6.34067
6.32879
6.31514
6.30945
6.30326
6.29978
6.29529
6.29553
6.29783
6.29044
6.28209
6.27281
6.25674
6.26162
6.27834
6.28342
6.29427
6.30344
6.31610

Beta =

0.9320232176

Gamma =

Seasonal
Factor St

Forecast

0.90160
0.93182
0.98454
1.01163
1.03923
1.06624
1.08997
1.11636
1.03240
0.97296
0.94364
0.91543
0.90160
0.93182
0.98454
1.01163
1.03923
1.06624

3030.04
3137.48
3321.20
3418.98
3518.81
3616.97
3704.30
3801.05
3521.67
3325.03
3230.75
3139.89
3098.07
3207.75
3395.44
3495.24
3597.16
3697.38

2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6

JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG

19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68

3805
3909
3620
3409
3302
3206
3151
3265
3453
3555
3665
3752
3859
3966
3676
3475
3389
3299
3226
3327
3534
3628
3723
3821
3928
4027
3725
3529
3422
3321
3351
3453
3655
3756
3866
3987
4055
4145
3875
3653
3556
3476

3474.014
3480.345
3486.683
3493.025
3499.366
3505.706
3512.039
3518.367
3524.689
3531.004
3537.316
3543.618
3549.916
3556.214
3562.511
3568.810
3575.114
3581.427
3587.736
3594.035
3600.331
3606.619
3612.896
3619.159
3625.415
3631.662
3637.897
3644.127
3650.348
3656.558
3662.789
3669.035
3675.293
3681.563
3687.845
3694.144
3700.450
3706.758
3713.081
3719.417
3725.769
3732.146

6.32235
6.33017
6.33744
6.34140
6.34134
6.34004
6.33372
6.32839
6.32195
6.31572
6.31178
6.30266
6.29918
6.29785
6.29716
6.29818
6.30419
6.31244
6.30888
6.30018
6.29619
6.28869
6.27745
6.26434
6.25636
6.24735
6.23636
6.23006
6.22122
6.21061
6.23052
6.24404
6.25773
6.26926
6.28114
6.29780
6.30513
6.30741
6.32228
6.33523
6.35096
6.37493

1.08997
1.11636
1.03240
0.97296
0.94364
0.91543
0.90160
0.93182
0.98454
1.01163
1.03923
1.06624
1.08997
1.11636
1.03240
0.97296
0.94364
0.91543
0.90160
0.93182
0.98454
1.01163
1.03923
1.06624
1.08997
1.11636
1.03240
0.97296
0.94364
0.91543
0.90160
0.93182
0.98454
1.01163
1.03923
1.06624
1.08997
1.11636
1.03240
0.97296
0.94364
0.91543
0.90160
0.93182
0.98454
1.01163
1.03923
1.06624
1.08997
1.11636

3786.55
3885.32
3599.65
3398.57
3302.15
3209.22
3166.45
3278.47
3470.19
3572.08
3676.10
3778.36
3869.29
3970.03
3677.94
3472.31
3373.62
3278.53
3234.69
3348.99
3544.66
3648.57
3754.65
3858.91
3951.59
4054.26
3755.78
3545.60
3444.63
3347.32
3302.34
3418.85
3618.44
3724.37
3832.52
3938.83
4033.35
4138.08
3833.37
3618.83
3515.77
3416.49
3370.64
3489.55
3693.26
3801.35
3911.69
4020.15
4116.55
4223.36

6
6
6
6

SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC

69
70
71
72

1.03240
0.97296
0.94364
0.91543

3912.30
3693.26
3587.98
3486.54

Et

At

bias

MSE

MAD

Percent
Error

MAPE

TS

29.0409
34.4828
15.2008
16.9773
9.8080
12.9716
-0.6961
-6.9539
20.6728
22.0266
23.7499
39.8864
-11.9272
-42.2510
-13.5616
-29.7566
-25.8354
-36.6169

29.0409
34.4828
15.2008
16.9773
9.8080
12.9716
0.6961
6.9539
20.6728
22.0266
23.7499
39.8864
11.9272
42.2510
13.5616
29.7566
25.8354
36.6169

29.0409
63.5237
78.7245
95.7018
105.5097
118.4814
117.7853
110.8314
131.5042
153.5307
177.2807
217.1671
205.2399
162.9889
149.4273
119.6707
93.8353
57.2184

843.3753
1016.2192
754.5005
637.9324
529.5852
469.3649
402.3820
358.1288
365.8215
377.7564
394.6930
494.3789
467.2927
561.4249
536.2576
558.0827
564.5171
607.6438

29.0409
31.7619
26.2415
23.9254
21.1019
19.7469
17.0254
15.7664
16.3116
16.8831
17.5073
19.3723
18.7996
20.4747
20.0138
20.6227
20.9293
21.8009

0.9677
1.1113
0.4598
0.4990
0.2795
0.3599
0.0188
0.1826
0.5905
0.6669
0.7406
1.2867
0.3835
1.3000
0.3978
0.8442
0.7131
0.9806

0.9677
1.0395
0.8463
0.7595
0.6635
0.6129
0.5280
0.4848
0.4966
0.5136
0.5342
0.5969
0.5805
0.6319
0.6163
0.6305
0.6354
0.6546

1.0000
2.0000
3.0000
4.0000
5.0000
6.0000
6.9182
7.0296
8.0620
9.0938
10.1261
11.2102
10.9173
7.9605
7.4662
5.8029
4.4834
2.6246

-18.4528
-23.6816
-20.3536
-10.4281
0.1475
3.2210
15.4493
13.4732
17.1901
17.0787
11.0996
26.3635
10.2892
4.0268
1.9404
-2.6893
-15.3796
-20.4711
8.6944
21.9853
10.6603
20.5749
31.6536
37.9140
23.5855
27.2630
30.7805
16.5993
22.6289
26.3237
-48.6602
-34.1516
-36.5556
-31.6302
-33.4825
-48.1681
-21.6471
-6.9165
-41.6287
-34.1665
-40.2250
-59.5145

18.4528
23.6816
20.3536
10.4281
0.1475
3.2210
15.4493
13.4732
17.1901
17.0787
11.0996
26.3635
10.2892
4.0268
1.9404
2.6893
15.3796
20.4711
8.6944
21.9853
10.6603
20.5749
31.6536
37.9140
23.5855
27.2630
30.7805
16.5993
22.6289
26.3237
48.6602
34.1516
36.5556
31.6302
33.4825
48.1681
21.6471
6.9165
41.6287
34.1665
40.2250
59.5145

38.7656
593.5839
21.6247
15.0839
591.9457
21.7275
-5.2697
583.4849
21.6621
-15.6977
561.9058
21.1514
-15.5502
537.4761
20.2382
-12.3292
515.5135
19.5292
3.1201
504.4402
19.3660
16.5933
492.0205
19.1393
33.7834
484.7420
19.0671
50.8621
477.8469
18.9961
61.9617
465.6178
18.7238
88.3252
473.2649
18.9785
98.6144
461.4134
18.6982
102.6412
447.5010
18.2397
104.5816
434.0544
17.7458
101.8923
421.5009
17.3030
86.5127
416.2160
17.2480
66.0416
416.2951
17.3375
74.7360
407.0870
17.1039
96.7213
409.0940
17.2324
107.3817
401.5183
17.0639
127.9566
402.0635
17.1517
159.6102
416.6949
17.5054
197.5241
440.9991
17.9913
221.1097
443.6799
18.1214
248.3727
450.4888
18.3291
279.1532
461.5322
18.6058
295.7525
457.4888
18.5622
318.3813
458.6500
18.6487
344.7051
463.5311
18.8086
296.0449
502.3940
19.4179
261.8933
515.6728
19.7125
225.3376
531.7638
20.0428
193.7074
540.7774
20.2656
160.2249
551.7264
20.5150
112.0569
584.4752
21.0271
90.4098
582.3684
21.0384
83.4933
572.8232
20.7862
41.8646
593.1762
21.1518
7.6981
603.0758
21.3762
-32.5270
620.2788
21.6957
-92.0415
668.9738
22.3260
standard deviation'; 27.91

0.4850
0.6058
0.5623
0.3059
0.0045
0.1005
0.4903
0.4127
0.4978
0.4804
0.3029
0.7027
0.2666
0.1015
0.0528
0.0774
0.4538
0.6205
0.2695
0.6608
0.3017
0.5671
0.8502
0.9923
0.6004
0.6770
0.8263
0.4704
0.6613
0.7926
1.4521
0.9890
1.0002
0.8421
0.8661
1.2081
0.5338
0.1669
1.0743
0.9353
1.1312
1.7122

0.6457
0.6437
0.6398
0.6246
0.5976
0.5769
0.5735
0.5673
0.5647
0.5617
0.5528
0.5578
0.5484
0.5344
0.5198
0.5068
0.5053
0.5085
0.5020
0.5062
0.5010
0.5026
0.5111
0.5226
0.5244
0.5278
0.5345
0.5331
0.5358
0.5412
0.5597
0.5683
0.5768
0.5819
0.5873
0.5988
0.5976
0.5899
0.5984
0.6042
0.6131
0.6314

1.7927
0.6942
-0.2433
-0.7422
-0.7684
-0.6313
0.1611
0.8670
1.7718
2.6775
3.3092
4.6540
5.2740
5.6273
5.8933
5.8887
5.0158
3.8092
4.3695
5.6128
6.2929
7.4603
9.1178
10.9789
12.2016
13.5507
15.0035
15.9330
17.0725
18.3270
15.2460
13.2856
11.2428
9.5584
7.8101
5.3292
4.2974
4.0168
1.9792
0.3601
-1.4992
-4.1226

Intercept, b
Slope, a

3354.409 This is initial level L0

6.340672 This is initial trend T0

Compute the initial seasonal factors as follows:

Period, t
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43

Demand
Dt

p-period moving
average

3001
3103
3306
3402
3509
3604
3705
3808
3501
3303
3207
3100
3110
3250
3409
3525
3623
3734
3805
3909
3620
3409
3302
3206
3151
3265
3453
3555
3665
3752
3859
3966
3676
3475
3389
3299
3226
3327
3534
3628
3723
3821
3928

3379.08
3388.17
3400.42
3409.00
3419.25
3428.75
3439.58
3447.92
3456.33
3466.25
3475.08
3483.00
3491.83
3495.25
3496.50
3500.17
3502.67
3506.17
3507.67
3512.17
3516.92
3521.58
3527.08
3534.33
3542.08
3548.33
3553.50
3560.25
3566.33
3571.17
3576.92
3582.67
3587.75
3591.83
3596.33
3599.08
3600.92
3611.33

Deseasonalized
Seasonal
Demand
Dt based on
factor
Initial
(Centred moving Regression Sbar Dt/ Seasonal
average)
at+b
(at+B)
factors
3354.41
3360.75
0.89
0.9016
3367.09
0.92
0.9318
3373.43
0.98
0.9845
3379.77
1.01
1.0116
3386.11
1.04
1.0392
3392.45
1.06
1.0662
3383.63
3398.79
1.09
1.0900
3394.29
3405.13
1.12
1.1164
3404.71
3411.48
1.03
1.0324
3414.13
3417.82
0.97
0.9730
3424.00
3424.16
0.94
0.9436
3434.17
3430.50
0.90
0.9154
3443.75
3436.84
0.90
3452.13
3443.18
0.94
3461.29
3449.52
0.99
3470.67
3455.86
1.02
3479.04
3462.20
1.05
3487.42
3468.54
1.08
3493.54
3474.88
1.10
3495.88
3481.22
1.12
3498.33
3487.56
1.04
3501.42
3493.90
0.98
3504.42
3500.24
0.94
3506.92
3506.59
0.91
3509.92
3512.93
0.90
3514.54
3519.27
0.93
3519.25
3525.61
0.98
3524.33
3531.95
1.01
3530.71
3538.29
1.04
3538.21
3544.63
1.06
3545.21
3550.97
1.09
3550.92
3557.31
1.11
3556.88
3563.65
1.03
3563.29
3569.99
0.97
3568.75
3576.33
0.95
3574.04
3582.67
0.92
3579.79
3589.01
0.90
3585.21
3595.35
0.93
3589.79
3601.70
0.98
3594.08
3608.04
1.01
3597.71
3614.38
1.03
3600.00
3620.72
1.06
3606.13
3627.06
1.08

44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

4027
3725
3529
3422
3321
3351
3453
3655
3756
3866
3987
4055
4145
3875
3653
3556
3476

3621.83
3631.92
3642.58
3654.50
3668.33
3678.92
3688.75
3701.25
3711.58
3722.75
3735.67

3616.58
3626.88
3637.25
3648.54
3661.42
3673.63
3683.83
3695.00
3706.42
3717.17
3729.21

3633.40
3639.74
3646.08
3652.42
3658.76
3665.10
3671.44
3677.78
3684.12
3690.46
3696.81
3703.15
3709.49
3715.83
3722.17
3728.51
3734.85

1.11
1.02
0.97
0.94
0.91
0.91
0.94
0.99
1.02
1.05
1.08
1.10
1.12
1.04
0.98
0.95
0.93