hatheistheGOP'snationalfrontrunnerandhasthemostcrediblepathtocapturetheparty's

nomination.

ClintonwinsNevada
InNevada'sDemocraticcaucuses,meanwhile,HillaryClintondeployedanintricatelybuilt
organizationalmachinetoregisteramuchneededandstabilizingvictoryoverVermontSen.Bernie
Sanders,slowingherrival'ssurgefollowinghisstunningroutintheNewHampshireprimary.
Hervictory,andtheloomingDemocraticSouthCarolinaprimarynextweekinwhichsheisafavorite,
doesn'tmeantheendforthemoreliberalSanders,againstwhomsheseemsfatedtofightinlongwarof
attrition.ButitwasClinton'sbestnightforweeksinacrisisscarredcampaignandindicatedher
firewallofminorityvotersisstillintactandraisesthechancesthatshewilleventuallyclaimthe
nominationandheadontoapossiblebattlefortheagesbetweenherownestablishmentpolitical
dynastyandTrump.
At11:30p.m.ETwith99%ofthevotecountedintheRepublicanprimary,Trumpwasintheleadat
32.5%,withFloridaSen.MarcoRubioandTexasSen.TedCruzinaneffectivetieon22.5%and
22.3%respectively.Bushtrailedinfourthat7.9%justaheadofOhioGov.JohnKasichandformer
neurosurgeonBenCarson.
OntheDemocraticside,with88%ofthevotecounted,Clintonheldanunassailableleadwith52.6%
comparedto47.4%forSanders.
Ofcourse,bothpartieshaveawardedonlyasmallportionofthedelegatesthatwillultimatelybe
neededtoclinchthenomination.
ButasheaddressedsupportersonSaturdaynight,Trumpseemedtoappreciatesomethinghadchanged.
"Let'sputthisthingaway,"Trumproared.
Forsomuchofthewild2016campaign,theconventionalwisdomsuggestedthatTrump,runninga
campaignbasedoninsults,vaguevowstoMakeAmericaGreatAgainandlaboringundera
questionableconservativepedigree,willfade.
Butafterhistwomassiveprimarywins,that'snolongerthecase.
SouthCarolina,afterall,haslongprideditselfonpickingRepublicannominees.Ithashandedvictory
totheeventualRepublicanstandardbearereverycyclesince1980withtheexceptionofNewt
Gingrichin2012.
AndTrumpcannowbaskinthefactthateveryRepublicanwhohaswonbothNewHampshireand
SouthCarolinahasgoneontoclaimthenomination.

Symbolicovertones
HisvictorySaturdaynightcamewithhugesymbolicovertones.Thestate'scollectionofnational
securityconservatives,evangelicals,teapartyvotersandmoremoderateestablishmentconservatives
offersafairmicrocosmoftheGOPitself.
Trumpnowlooksevenmoreformidableasheentersthe13SuperTuesdaystatesoncehehas
navigatedtheNevadaGOPcaucusesTuesdaywithcontestsloominginplaceslikeAlabama,
Arkansas,GeorgiaandTexaswherehepollsconsistentlywell.
AndtherewasmoreproofthatTrump'sbareknuckle,profaneandscorchedearthcampaignstyle
cannothurthiminfact,it'sdrawingsupporterstohim.
Afterall,inSouthCarolina,TrumpshatteredGOPtaboosbyaccusingthelastRepublicanPresident,
GeorgeW.Bush,oflyingtothepublicabouttheIraqWarandfailingtopreventtheSeptember11,
2001,attacks.
HealsofeudedopenlywithPopeFrancisandcitedanapocryphalstoryaboutaU.S.generalwho
purportedlydippedbulletsinpigs'bloodtoexecuteMuslimprisonersacenturyagoinanefforttodeter
Islamicterrorism.
Itmadenodifference.Trumpconvertedhispollnumberstoa10pointprimaryvictory,suggestingthat
hemaybeevenmoreimpervioustodamaginghisownfortunesthantheTeflonpresidenthimself,
RonaldReagan.
Hesummeduphisownhardballcampaignstrategyasheaddressedhissupporters,reflectingthateven
forsomeonewhostyleshimselfastheultimatetoughguy,runningforpresidentisahardbusiness.
"It'stough,it'snasty,it'smean,it'svicious,it'sbeautiful.Whenyouwin,it'sbeautiful,"Trumpsaid
Saturdaynightashedeclaredvictory.
AnotherfactorinTrump'sfavor:Theoppositiontohimremainssplit.ThebitterfracasbetweenRubio
andCruzendedwitheachoftheyoungpretenderstothenextgenerationofconservativeleadership
takingnearlyaquarteroftheelectorate.

Thatmeansthereislittleincentiveforeithertodropouteventhoughtheyaresplittingtheconservative
vote.
Cruzbilledhimselfastheonlytrueconservativeleftintherace.
"Wearetheonlycampaignthathasbeaten,andcanbeat,DonaldTrump,"hesaid.

Rubiocelebratesacomeback
AjubilantRubiobouncedbackafterhisdisastrousperformanceinNewHampshiretoproclaimthatthe
GOPracewasnowathreemanaffair.HiscampaignexpectstopickupdisenfranchisedBush
supportersandbelievesitwillnowstarttoemergeastheonlygenuinealternativetoTrump.
"IfitisGod'swillthatIshouldserveasthe45thpresident...historywillsaythatonthisnightinSouth
Carolina,wetookthefirststepforwardinthebeginningofanewAmericancentury,"Rubiosaid,
deliveringwhatamountedtoavictoryspeechdespitefinishingwellbehindTrumpjustashehad
afterhisthirdplacespotintheIowacaucuses.
ButthoughCruzwonIowaandRubioappearstohavethekindofcrossoverappealthatcouldunite
severalblocsoftheRepublicanParty,itwasstillunclearwhereexactlythetwoCubanAmerican
senatorscanstopTrump.
Itturnsout,meanwhile,thatformerfirstladyBarbaraBushhaditrightmanymonthsago,whenshe
saidinanunguardedmoment:"We'vehadenoughBushes."
Thoughsheeventuallycamearoundtoherson'scampaignandwasonthestumpwithhiminits
twilight,JebBush'smotherhadputherfingeronthefierceantiestablishmentmoodthatwasnotthen
evidentbutwouldshapethe2016race.
WithhistearfulwifeColumbawhohadneverwantedherhusbandtorunathisside,Bush's
politicalcareercametoanendinastatethathadresurrectedthehopesofhisfatherandbrotherintheir
presidentialcampaigns.
ButhedidnotleavewithoutarepudiationofthekindofpoliticsthatTrumphasintroducedintothe
RepublicanPartyandwhichissoalienfromthatpracticedbyhisownfamilyfordecades.
"Despitewhatyoumighthaveheard,ideasmatter,policymatters,"Bushsaidinmakingaclearimplicit
casethatTrumpwasnotqualifiedtobepresident.
"IfirmlybelievetheAmericanpeoplemustentrustthisofficetosomeonewhounderstandsthat
whoeverholdsitisaservant,notthemaster,someonewhowillcommittothatservicewithhonorand
decency."
ButafterSaturdaynight,Bushstylepoliticsisinthepast.AndthefuturemaybelongtoTrump.

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