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Equity Research

April 12, 2010 United States of America


Financial Services
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B - US$ 80.49) 2-Equal Weight Insurance/Non-Life
Initiation of Coverage Jay Gelb, CFA
1.212.526.1561
BRK.B: Initiating Coverage With 2-EW jay.gelb@barcap.com
BCI, New York
Investment Conclusion
‰ We are initiating coverage of BRK.B with a 2-EW
EPS (US$) (FY Dec)
rating and $88 price target, which is 1.30x YE11
estimated book value of $68. Led by Warren 2009 2010 2011 % Change
Buffett, we expect Berkshire to generate stable Actual Old New St. Est. Old New St. Est. 2010 2011
operating EPS, slowing book value growth, and 1Q 0.73A N/A 0.71E N/A N/A N/A N/A -3% N/A
reduced return on equity through 2011. 2Q 0.76A N/A 0.83E N/A N/A N/A N/A 9% N/A
3Q 0.88A N/A 0.88E N/A N/A N/A N/A 0% N/A
4Q 0.87A N/A 0.92E N/A N/A N/A N/A 6% N/A
Summary Year 3.25A N/A 3.34E N/A N/A 3.47E N/A 3% 4%
‰ We expect earnings to decline in Insurance (50%
P/E 24.1 23.2
of earnings), and recover slowly in MidAmerican
(utility), as well as the cyclical Manufacturing,
Service & Retail segment. The addition of Market Data Financial Summary
Burlington Northern (railroad) should be an
important contributor to BRK's earnings. We do Market Cap (Mil.) 196767 Revenue TTM (Mil.) 112493.0
not expect any large acquisitions near term. Dividend Yield N/A
‰ BRK's operations appear strong, although we 52 Week Range 83.57 - 54.66
doubt the stock will benefit from valuation multiple
expansion in a weakening P&C (re)insurance
market, and CEO succession issues persist.
‰ BRK shares are up 21% YTD versus a 6%
increase in the S&P 500, and appear to already
reflect being added to the S&P 500 Index and Stock Overview
expectations of improved results as the economy Reuters
Ber k shir e Hat haway Inc. - 0 4 / 0 9 / 2 0 1 0 BRK.B
recovers. Conference call is April 12 at 11ET. 85
Bloomberg BRK.B
ADR
75

65

Stock Rating Target Price


New: 2-Equal Weight New: US$ 88.00 55

Vol um e
Old: 0-Not Rated Old: N/A 300M

Sector View: 2-Neutral


100M

May Ju n Jul Au g Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Ap r


Source: Barclays Capit al Live

Note: This report is a summary of our forthcoming full report on Berkshire Hathaway. A conference call for Barclays
Capital clients is being held Monday, April 12, 2010 at 11:00AM ET. Dial in details: U.S. (800) 706-8249, International
(706) 634-5881, Passcode: 67690752.

Barclays Capital does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be
aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S) ON PAGE 60 AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING


ON PAGE 61
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Equity Research
INITIATING COVERAGE ON BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY WITH A 2-EW RATING

We are initiating coverage on Berkshire Hathaway with a 2-Equal Weight rating and $88 price target ($132,000 per Class A
share) based on 1.30x YE11 estimated book value per Class B share of approximately $68 ($101,500 per Class A share).
Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, is a holding company with significant operations in investments, insurance,
railroads, utilities, manufacturing, services, retail, and homebuilding. We estimate the company’s annual earning power to be
$8-$9 billion including the recently completed Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) railroad acquisition, and investment
results recovered in 2009 after a disappointing outcome in 2008.

Warren Buffett anticipates that business conditions will improve at a slow place and currently are nowhere near 2007 levels.
Based on our projections, Berkshire’s operating EPS growth will likely be constrained through 2011, reflecting declining
earnings in Insurance, a strong contribution from BNSF, and a slow recovery in the other major units including MidAmerican
(utilities and energy), Manufacturing, Service, and Retail, and Finance and Financial Products (Clayton Homes).

We Recommend Waiting For A More Attractive Entry Point Before Adding To Positions

Berkshire Hathaway shares rose 21% (versus a 6% increase in the S&P 500) year-to-date 2010 in part, we believe, because
of increased demand and liquidity in BRK shares resulting from being added to the S&P 500 Index and the Class B share
split, as well as anticipated benefits from an economic recovery. The stock’s current valuation of 1.41x book value per share
probably already reflects anticipated benefits of an economic recovery. Plus, our 2010 and 2011 operating EPS estimates are
8%-10% below consensus expectations, reflecting our outlook for a modest earnings recovery including contributions from the
BNSF acquisition. As a result, we recommend investors wait for a more attractive entry point before adding to positions.

Berkshire Hathaway’s Operating Business Is Diversified

The largest contributors to Berkshire’s operating earnings are the Insurance, BNSF, and the Manufacturing, Service, and
Retail segments. We expect BNSF (railway operator) to generate the strongest earnings growth among the operating
segments. Meanwhile, we anticipate earnings could decline in Insurance (accounts for one-half of Berkshire’s operating
earnings), and recover slowly in MidAmerican (utilities and energy), as well as in the economically sensitive Manufacturing,
Service, and Retail, and Finance and Financial Services units.

Figure 1. Berkshire Hathaway’s Business Mix - 2009


Revenues Pre-tax Earnings
BNSF Finance and BNSF
Insurance
11% Financial Products 19%
27%
6%
Finance and
Financial Products
4% Insurance
49%
Manufacturing,
Service, and Retail
Manufacturing,
15%
Service, and Retail
49% MidAmerican
9%
MidAmerican
11%

Total 2009 Revenues Proforma for BNSF Acquisition: $124.8 billion Total 2009 Pre-tax Earnings Proforma for BNSF Acquisition: $13.7 billion

Note: Revenues and pre-tax earnings are pro forma for BNSF acquisition.
Source: Barclays Capital research.

Book Value per Share Growth Has Resumed

Berkshire Hathaway has a successful long-term track record of increasing book value per share (a key valuation metric).
Berkshire’s book value per share increased 20% to an all-time high of $56 per Class B share ($84,487 per Class A share) in
2009 helped by a recovery in investment and derivative valuations after declining 10% to $47 per Class B share ($70,530 per
Class A share) in 2008 due to the financial crisis. By year-end 2011, we anticipate Berkshire’s book value per Class B share
could increase to roughly $68 ($101,500 per Class A share) driven in part by estimated operating EPS of $3.34 per B Class
share ($5,015 per Class A share) in 2010 and $3.47 per Class B share ($5,200 per Class A share) in 2011 and assuming
ongoing 8% annualized equity investment returns. Despite losing its AAA ratings from the rating agencies, the company’s
balance sheet and liquidity position remain strong, in our view. As a point of reference, Class B shares are valued at 1/1,500th
of Class A shares.

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Equity Research
Figure 2. Berkshire Hathaway’s Book Value Per Class B Share
$80 25%

$70 20%

$60 15%
Book Value Per Class B Share

$50 10%

% Change in BV
$40 5%

$30 0%

$20 -5%

$10 -10%

$0 -15%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
Book Value Per Class B Share % Change in BV
Source: Company data, Barclays Capital research.

Operating Earnings Appear Stalled

Berkshire’s operating earnings per share could be mostly unchanged, and we expect return on equity to decline through 2011
reflecting our outlook of reduced earnings in property-casualty (P&C) Insurance, the new contribution to earnings from BNSF,
and a slow recovery in earnings elsewhere in the enterprise. Berkshire’s annual earning power is roughly $8-$9 billion, we
believe.

Accurately estimating the company’s future operating EPS and book value per share present significant challenges because
Berkshire Hathaway is highly diversified, with volatile earnings in its reinsurance business, and it offers limited transparency
into business and investment operations for modeling purposes, in our view. Berkshire’s excess cash appears to be largely
deployed in the early 2010 acquisition of the remainder of BNSF not already owned by Berkshire. As a result, opportunities to
generate earnings growth from additional large acquisitions appear curtailed.

Figure 3. Berkshire Hathaway Operating EPS Per Class B Share and ROE
Operating Earnings Per Class B Share Book Value Per Class B Share and ROE

$5 $80 10%
$4.16
$4.15 9%
$4.02 $70
$4 $3.47 8%
$3.25 $3.34 $60
7%

Operating ROE
$3 $50 6%
$2.16 $40 5%
$2 4%
$30
3%
$20
$1 2%
$10 1%
$0 $0 0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
Book Value Per Class B Share Operating ROE

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital Research

We expect Berkshire’s Insurance business to generate reduced operating income through 2011 due to declining underwriting
profits and reduced investment income. These underwriting results should be driven by:
• GEICO’s underwriting margins are compressing and growth is expected to slow in 2010.
• We expect General Re to be disciplined, which could result in flat premium volume, and catastrophe losses could
increase from low levels.

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Equity Research
• Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group’s results will likely reflect modest underwriting profits if catastrophe losses
increase to normal levels.

Figure 4. Berkshire Hathaway’s Insurance Business


in $ bil Total Insurance Premiums Earned in $ bil Total Insurance Pre-tax Earnings
$35 $9
$31.8 $8.2 $8.1
$28.5 $29.4 $7.5
$30 $27.9 $8
$25.5 $6.7
$24.0 $7
$25 $22.0 $5.8
$6 $5.4
$20 $5
$15 $4 $3.5
$3
$10
$2
$5
$1
$0 $0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital Research

Our outlook for Berkshire’s non-insurance businesses is for a boost to earnings through 2011 from the addition of BNSF and a
modest recovery in the other units. After suffering a sharp decline in earnings in 2009 due to the weak economy, we
anticipate a slow recovery in earnings (albeit from depressed levels) for the Manufacturing Service & Retail segment, and
stable earnings in the Finance and Financial Products unit. The MidAmerican utility business is expected to generate modest
normalized annual earnings growth driven by PacifiCorp’s rate cases and a drop in some expenses partially offset by
continued investment in the platform. Overall, we estimate that annual pre-tax earnings power is about $7 bn from Berkshire’s
non-insurance businesses including BNSF.

Figure 5. Berkshire Hathaway’s Non-Insurance Businesses


Non Insurance Revenues Non Insurance Total Pre-tax Operating Margin

BNSF acquisition 10% BNSF acquisition


$120 9%
8%
$94.0 $98.4
$100 7%
$85.0 $77.7
$76.8 6%
$80
$68.4 5%
$58.7
in $ bil

$60 4%
3%
$40 2%
$20 1%
0%
$0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E

Non Insurance Pre-tax Earnings Non Insurance Pre-tax Earnings Per Class A Share

BNSF acquisition $6,000 BNSF acquisition


$9 $8.2 $5,004
$8 $7.2 $7.2 $5,000 $4,630
$6.4 $4,123 $4,408
$7
Per Class A Share

$3,828
$5.9 $4,000
$6
in $ bil

$5 $4.0 $3,000 $2,566


$4 $3.3 $2,168
$3 $2,000
$2
$1,000
$1
$0 $0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital Research

CEO Succession Questions

The quality of Berkshire’s management team is very strong, in our view, although management succession concerns are
warranted. Berkshire Hathaway is synonymous with its chairman and CEO Warren Buffett (age 79), whom we believe is in
the twilight of his career. Mr. Buffett’s current succession plan is to split his operating duties between a new CEO (all three
leading candidates are internal according to him), who would be responsible for the oversight of business operations, and
three or so external people reporting to the CEO to manage the investment portfolio. Clearly, the “Buffett premium”
embedded within Berkshire’s share price appears to be at risk of eroding once he retires. Warren Buffett probably has
enough time to set his succession plan in motion to minimize disruption, although other complex companies with iconic CEOs
faced challenges during the leadership transition phase.

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Equity Research
According to press reports, Warren Buffett’s successor as CEO is presumed to be David Sokol, chairman of MidAmercan
Energy (Berkshire’s utility business)1. Mr. Sokol (age 53) has been involved in the energy industry for 30 years. He
successfully improved results at Berkshire’s NetJets operation and was instrumental in the MidAmerican’s $5 bn acquisition of
PacifiCorp. Based on Mr. Sokol’s strong track record, we believe he would be successful as the next CEO of Berkshire
Hathaway.

Berkshire Hathaway’s Key Metrics

Berkshire Hathaway is a challenging company to analyze as a result of its disparate businesses. The main metrics we focus
on in terms of tracking business fundamentals include revenue and profit trends in the major business segments, as well as
trends in book value per share, investments, float, and free cash flow.

Figure 6. Berkshire’s Key Metrics


KEY METRICS AREAS OF FOCUS

OPERATING SEGMENTS

Insurance Premium growth and underwriting income trends,


especially for GEICO and GenRe. This segment’s
investment income is an important contributor to
operating earnings.

Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railcar loadings, revenue/revenue ton-mile (a proxy


for rail rates), operating margins, CAPEX needs, and
general economic conditions.

MidAmerican Regulated utility rate changes, economic conditions


in the Midwest, free cash flow position, CAPEX
needs, as well as inflation and interest rate trends.

Manufacturing, Service, and Retail Monitor for signs of stabilizing revenues and
earnings as the lingering impact of the global
recession eases.

Finance & Financial Products Focus on signs of stabilizing revenues at Clayton


Homes, and housing starts data.

BALANCE SHEET & CASH FLOW

Book value per share Critical valuation metric for Berkshire shares.

Investments Growth in investments (currently $146 bn) would


likely increase Berkshire’s intrinsic value.

Float Increased float (currently $62 bn) from P&C


insurance operations offers opportunities for
investments and acquisitions.

Unrealized investment gains/losses Market value changes in Berkshire’s $57 bn equity


investment portfolio are reflected in book value, not
operating earnings.

Derivative gains/losses Non-cash mark-to-market changes in Berkshire’s


$38 bn of notional derivative contacts affect book
value but not operating earnings.

Free cash flow Free cash flow (approximately $11 bn in 2009) can
be deployed in investments or acquisitions. CAPEX
are significant for the MidAmerican and BNSF
businesses.

1
“The Next Oracle of Omaha: Mr. Sokol?”, The Wall Street Journal, Feb., 28, 2010. “NetJets Pick More Likely to Succeed Buffett”, Barron’s, August 5, 2009. “For
Buffett Fans, the Price Is Right”, Barron’s, July 13, 2009.

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Equity Research
Source: Barclays Capital research.

Financial Outlook

Berkshire’s operating EPS declined 22% in 2009 to $3.25 per Class B share ($4,879 per Class A share), reflecting reduced
earnings in all major segments. We anticipate earnings growth and return on equity should stall through 2011 owing to
declining earnings in Insurance, the addition of BNSF, and a slow recovery for the other Non-Insurance units. We expect
operating earnings per class B share to rise 3% year-over-year to $3.34 ($5,015 per Class A share) in 2010, and advance 4%
to $3.47 ($5,200 per Class A share) in 2011, although we recognize limitations in accurately forecasting the company’s
earnings. We estimate Berkshire’s annual after-tax earnings power is roughly $8-$9 billion inclusive of BNSF. Outstanding
shares after the BNSF acquisition are approximately 2.45 billion Class B equivalent shares and 1.65 million Class A
equivalent shares.

Following is our earnings outlook for Berkshire’s business segments:

• Insurance (49% of total pre-tax segment income pro forma for BNSF). We expect pre-tax income to decline in 2010 &
2011 driven by increased competition, slack demand, rising loss cost inflation, and reduced investment income.
• BNSF (19% of pre-tax income) could show the most robust earnings growth driven by the anticipated benefits of an
economic recovery on freight rail volume as well as positive operating leverage.
• MidAmerican (11% of pre-tax income) could generate modestly increased normalized earnings reflecting stabilizing
economic conditions, continued solid regulatory treatment, and the lingering benefit of several PacifiCorp rate cases
(a regulatory proceeding to establish customer rates).
• Manufacturing, Service & Retail (15% of pre-tax earnings) could generate slightly increased earnings in the second
half of 2010 & 2011 as the economy recovers.
• Finance & Financial Products (6% of pre-tax income) earnings could stabilize despite housing market weakness due
to cost cutting.

Berkshire’s book value per share growth is expected to rise, although the company’s return on equity is expected to decline as
the increase in book value per share outpaces earnings growth. Typically, price-to-book valuations tend not to increase if
ROEs decline. Also, free cash flow is expected to decline in part from BNSF’s CAPEX needs.
• By year-end 2011, we estimate Berkshire’s book value per Class B share could increase 20% versus YE09 to
approximately $68 ($101,500 per Class A share) based on our operating EPS outlook of $3.34 per Class B share
($5,015 per Class share) in 2010 and $3.47 per Class B share ($5,200 per Class A share) in 2011 and assuming
ongoing 8% annualized equity investment returns from current levels. As a point of reference, each 2 percentage
point change in equity investment valuations equates to roughly $0.30 per Class B share ($450 per Class A share), or
0.5% of book value per share.
• Berkshire’s total operating return on equity (ROE) could decline to 5.7% in 2010 and 5.3% in 2011 from 6.3% in 2009
reflecting reduced in Insurance earnings and a slow recovery in businesses outside Insurance, partially offset by the
acquisition of BNSF. Berkshire’s operating ROE is normally depressed because of its significant capital position, as
well as low asset and financial leverage.
• Berkshire’s comprehensive ROE, which includes contributions from realized and unrealized investment, and
derivative gains/losses, could fall to 8.9% in 2010 and 7.6% in 2011 from 18% in 2009, which benefitted from robust
investment returns.
• Total free cash flow could decline to roughly $8 bn both in 2010 and 2011 versus $11 bn in 2009. Berkshire expects
capital expenditures at MidAmerican to be $2.6 bn in 2010 down from $3.4 bn in 2009, and BNSF’s capital
expenditures are anticipated to be $2.4 bn in 2010.

Our Price Target Is $88 Per Class B Share ($132,000 per Class A share)

We determine our price target for Berkshire Hathaway of $88 per Class B share ($132,000 per Class A share) primarily by
applying a price-to-book multiple of 1.30x (versus 1.41x currently and a historical average since 2000 of 1.59x) to our YE 2011
book value estimate of around $68 per Class B share ($101,500 per Class A share). As a point of reference, our price target
valuation implies a price-to-tangible book multiple of 1.86x, versus 1.91x currently and a historical average since 2000 of
2.26x. Our $132,000 price target on BRK.A shares is 1.30x YE11 estimated book value of $101,500.

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Equity Research
Figure 7. Berkshire Hathaway Price-To-Book & Price-to-Tangible Book
2.1 Trailing Price-to-Stated Book Multiple 3.3
Trailing Price-to-Tangible Book Multiple
2.0 3.1
1.9 2.9
1.8
2.7
1.7
2.5
1.6
2.3
1.5
1.4 2.1

1.3 1.9

1.2 1.7
1.1 1.5
Dec-99

Dec-00

Dec-01

Dec-02

Dec-03

Dec-04

Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-99

Dec-00

Dec-01

Dec-02

Dec-03

Dec-04

Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09
Source: FactSet, Barclays Capital research.

Berkshire’s operating business remains strong, in our view. However, we believe that Berkshire shares are unlikely to benefit
from valuation multiple expansion over the next year because Berkshire’s operating EPS appear constrained, return on equity
is likely to decline, and book value growth is expected to slow. As a result, we are applying a price target price-to-book
multiple below its historical average level.

We also estimate Berkshire’s fair value using sum-of-the-parts and intrinsic value methods, which generate an outlook of
approximately $87 per Class B share ($130,000 per Class A) and $73 per Class B share ($110,000 per Class A share),
respectively (see our detailed valuation work on page 45).

What Could Improve Our Outlook?

All else being equal, we would likely need to see a pullback in Berkshire’s share price to around $72 per Class B share
($108,000 per Class A share, and a trailing price-to-book multiple of around 1.3x) before we could potentially view its
valuation as attractive. Alternatively, our outlook could improve if we see upside to our estimates for Berkshire’s book value
per share (our YE11 estimate is $68 per Class B share and $101,500 per Class A share) and operating EPS (our 2011
estimate is $3.47 per Class B share and $5,200 per Class A share). We view growth in book value per share as being more
sustainable if it is driven by operating earnings rather than by mark-to-market gains in investment and derivative valuations.

A tight property-casualty reinsurance market or improvement in GEICO’s underwriting margins would also be favorable for the
stock, in our view, but neither appears likely. A positive inflection point in Berkshire’s earning power could become evident if a
recovery occurs faster than we anticipate in BNSF or the economically sensitive Manufacturing, Service and Retail segment.
MidAmerican could generate better than modeled revenues and earnings if economic conditions improve faster than
anticipated, particularly in the Midwest, and if its expenses are lower than modeled.

Note: Class B shares trade at 1/1,500th the price of Class A shares, and Class B shares have 1/10,000th the voting power of
Class A shares.

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY IS A DISTINCTIVE BUSINESS

Berkshire Hathaway Inc., led by the legendary Warren Buffett (age 79), is a holding company owning approximately 80 entire
companies and others partially across various industries. Berkshire’s annual operating earning power is $8-$9 billion based
on its current business profile, we believe. Berkshire’s most significant businesses are P&C insurance and reinsurance, which
account for one-half of operating earnings and generate substantial funds available for investment known as float ($62 billion
as of year-end 2009). Among Berkshire’s most important insurance and reinsurance units are GEICO, the third largest auto
insurer in the United States, and two of the largest global reinsurers—General Re and the Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance
Group.

Berkshire’s non-insurance businesses, some of which are economically sensitive, also account for one-half of the company’s
earnings. These businesses include rail transportation, utilities and energy, finance, manufacturing, services, retailing, and
manufactured housing. In early 2010, Berkshire Hathaway completed its $26 billion acquisition of BNSF, one of the largest
railroad freight operators in the U.S. Berkshire is also the majority owner of MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company, a global
provider of the generation, transmission, and distribution of energy.

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Equity Research
Intrinsic Value Per Share Growth

Berkshire Hathaway’s long-term economic goal is to maximize its average annual rate of gain in intrinsic business value per
share. Intrinsic value, which is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life,
is a subjective metric since it involves estimates of future earnings and a discount rate.

Warren Buffett views Berkshire’s book value per share growth as a conservative, but reasonably adequate proxy, for growth in
the intrinsic value of the company. This conservatism arises because the carrying value of businesses controlled by Berkshire
is typically much lower than their intrinsic value (according to him, book value tells you what was put in, while intrinsic value
tells you what can be taken out). For instance, the carrying values for many of Berkshire’s acquired businesses are
significantly below their economic value, in management’s view. However, we doubt that Warren Buffett would sell any of
Berkshire’s operating businesses, which means value is unlikely to be unlocked immediately. Annual book value per share
growth is expected to generally move in lockstep with intrinsic value per share growth, although non-cash mark-to-market
effects from Berkshire’s derivatives portfolio could increase volatility in book value.

Berkshire Hathaway’s book value per Class A share, a key valuation metric, climbed from $19.46 in 1964, the year Warren
Buffett assumed management responsibilities, to $84,487 as of 4Q09 (the Class A shares have never split). This result
translates into a 20.3% compound annual gain since 1964 – substantially more than the 9.3% return of the S&P 500 Index
including dividends. Berkshire’s long-term track record is consistent, with the company reporting annual declines in book
value per share in only two years – 2001 and 2008 (book value recovered 19.8% in 2009). Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index
including dividends declined in 11 years since 1964. Berkshire’s compound annual book value growth exceeded that of the
S&P in four of the past five years and seven of the past ten years. The average compound annual gain has slowed compared
to the early years but is robust nonetheless.

Berkshire Hathaway’s Business Model

Berkshire’s impressive long term track record of book value and intrinsic value per share growth is all the more interesting
because management maintains a consistent perspective on how its diversified business should be run.

Berkshire Hathaway has a differentiated and highly successful business model, with operations spanning from insurance and
energy to furniture and confections. Warren Buffett controls voting power over 29.5% of Berkshire’s Class A shares. He and
his partner Charlie Munger (age 86) have built a collection of companies, both wholly and partially-owned, with attractive
economic characteristics and run by their own managers. Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger’s operating plan is simple: identify
talented managers and provide an environment in which they can perform at a high level.

Berkshire Hathaway’s core operating businesses are diversified across many industries. A challenge facing Berkshire, in our
view, is finding significant acquisitions large enough to have a notable effect on earnings power. As a point of reference,
Berkshire generated roughly $9 billion of after-tax income in 2009 if BNSF is included.
• Insurance is the company’s largest business and includes GEICO (motor vehicle insurer), General Reinsurance (one
of the largest global reinsurers), and Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group, which writes large and unusual risks.
GEICO’s growth is expected to slow, and reinsurance pricing should weaken due to excess capacity and slack
demand.
• The Utilities, Energy, and Railroads unit consists of MidAmerican (utility and energy) and the recently-acquired
BNSF (one of the largest operators of railroad systems in North America). Together, these businesses account for
about 30% of Berkshire’s earnings. MidAmerican and BNSF are capital intensive operations and represent
opportunities for Berkshire to reinvest excess cash at reasonable returns, in our view.
• The Manufacturing, Service, and Retail unit, a collection of companies ranging from manufacturers of building
products and paint, to apparel makers, to retailers of home furnishings and jewelry. This unit likely exhibits the
highest sensitivity to economic conditions.
• The Finance and Financial Products unit consists mostly of Clayton Homes, which is the largest company in the
manufactured housing industry. The weak housing market has impacted sales, although Clayton’s finance operation
has held up well compared to the other lenders.

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Equity Research
Figure 8. Berkshire Hathaway Revenue and Earnings By Segment, 2009
Revenues Pre-tax Earnings
BNSF Finance and BNSF
Insurance
11% 19%
27% Financial Products
6%
Finance and
Financial Products
4% Insurance
49%
Manufacturing,
Service, and Retail
Manufacturing,
15%
Service, and Retail
49% MidAmerican
9%
MidAmerican
11%

Total 2009 Revenues Proforma for BNSF Acquisition: $124.8 billion Total 2009 Pre-tax Earnings Proforma for BNSF Acquisition: $13.7 billion

Note: Revenues and pre-tax earnings are proforma for BNSF acquisition.
Source: Company data, Barclays Capital Research

Berkshire operates a decentralized management structure with only 21 employees located at the Omaha, Nebraska
headquarters. This arrangement means the operating managers run their businesses as they see fit with little interference as
long as goals are met. Meanwhile, Warren Buffett deploys excess cash generated by Berkshire’s subsidiaries (especially the
insurance operations), and focuses on capital allocation decisions. Excess cash from the operating businesses is used to
acquire other businesses that are expected to consistently earn above average returns on capital, as well as for buying
marketable securities. Mr. Buffett typically prefers using cash for acquisitions rather than stock because he wants to receive
as much value in a transaction as he gives up by issuing shares.

Warren Buffett says he would like to buy large businesses in any industry with the right management, an attractive economic
future, and at a reasonable price. However, we anticipate Berkshire will not be involved in major acquisitions anytime soon
because the company deployed the majority of its excess cash in the BNSF transaction.

Book Value Growth Recovers

Berkshire Hathaway’s book value per share growth is an important valuation metric. The company’s book value per share
increased substantially over the years, reflecting excess cash being deployed into new businesses and investments. With the
exception of the BNSF and GenRe deals, most of Berkshire’s large acquisitions are for all cash, meaning existing
shareholders are not diluted. After a 10% decline in Berkshire’s book value per share in 2008 (the largest in its history), the
company’s book value per share recovered 20% in 2009 to a record level of $84,487 per Class A share.

The primary factors contributing to changes in Berkshire’s book value per share are earnings from the operating businesses,
derivative gains/losses, realized investment gains/losses, and unrealized investment gains/losses (reflected in accumulated
comprehensive other income). Berkshire does not, nor does it anticipate, paying a shareholder dividend or repurchasing its
shares. In most years, net earnings are expected to be larger than other comprehensive income (OCI). However, in 2008,
net earnings of $5.0 bn were more than offset by OCI of $(17) bn due to net unrealized investment losses generated during
the financial crisis. In 2009, net earnings were $8.1 billion and OCI was $13.7 billion, reflecting a strong recovery in
investment valuations.

Berkshire’s compound annual growth rate of book value per share is 20.3% from 1965-2009. Growth averaged 9.2% annually
over the past five years, and recovered 19.8% in 2009 after a 9.6% decline in 2008. Berkshire’s book value per share growth
exceeded the S&P 500’s total return including dividends by: 11.1% since 1965, 6.1% on average over the past five years,
27.4% in 2008, and (6.7)% in 2009. Notably, Berkshire’s growth is inclusive of taxes while the S&P results are pre-tax.

We anticipate Berkshire’s book value per Class B share could grow from $56.32 ($84,487 per Class A share) in 2009, to
approximately $62.76 ($94,000 per Class A share) in 2010, and to $67.70 ($101,500 per Class A share) in 2011. Our outlook
takes into account our projections of Berkshire’s future earnings, modeled valuation changes in the investment portfolio, and
the addition of BNSF along with a modestly increased share count.

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Equity Research
Figure 9. Berkshire Hathaway Book Value Per Share Growth
Book Value Per Class A Share Annual Change in Book Value Per Class A Share
$120,000

$100,000

$80,000 60%
50%
$60,000 40%
30%
$40,000 20%
10%
$20,000 0%
-10%
$0 -20%

2010E
2011E
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

20 E
E
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08

20 9
10
11
0
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Source: Company data, Barclays Capital research.

Float Is the Fuel for Investments

Berkshire’s float from its insurance businesses is a critical driver of new cash available for Warren Buffett to invest. The
economic benefits from float are reflected in investment income. Float2 is the money Berkshire holds and invests for its
benefit but does not own, and is generated by insurance premiums being received before claims are paid. Most P&C insurers
generate float, but not to Berkshire’s extent on either an absolute basis or relative to premium volume.

Both the growth and cost of float are important. The growth of float means more cash is available for investment. Berkshire’s
cost of float, as measured by the percentage of P&C underwriting losses to premium volume, is negative in most years
because the insurance operations generate underwriting profits. Negative cost float is a meaningful benefit for Berkshire
because it means the company is being paid to hold other people’s money. In the years when float has a positive cost for
Berkshire resulting from underwriting losses, we believe it is useful to compare its cost of funds to the yield on long-term U.S.
Treasuries.

Berkshire’s float as of year end 2009 is $62 billion, up from $58 billion in 2008 and $46 billion in 2004 as a result of internal
growth, acquisitions, and writing retroactive reinsurance contracts. About three-quarters of the company’s float is generated
by GenRe and Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group, with smaller contributions from GEICO (auto insurance is short-tail)
and Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group.

Berkshire’s float is largely responsible for generating $5.2 bn of pre-tax insurance investment income in 2009, up 5.6% from
2008, despite low interest rates. The growth in investment income in 2009 was largely due to increased investments in debt
and convertible securities partially offset by low earnings on cash balances. These investments include Goldman Sachs,
General Electric, Swiss Re, Wrigley, and Dow Chemical, which together generate $2.1 billion in annualized dividends and
interest before potential gains from attached warrants. We anticipate investment income could decline as a result of reduced
portfolio yields, and the Swiss Re convert investment likely being redeemed in 2011.

(continued on next page)

2
Float is an approximation of the amount of net policyholder funds available for investment. That term denotes the sum of unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses,
unearned premiums and other policyholder liabilities, less the aggregate amount of premium balances receivable, losses recoverable from reinsurance ceded, deferred policy
acquisition costs, deferred charges on reinsurance contracts and related deferred income taxes.

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Figure 10. Berkshire Hathaway Insurance Float & Pre-tax Investment Income
Insurance Float Insurance Float By Segment, YE 2009
$62 billion at year-end 2009

$70 Berkshire
Hathaway Primary
$60 Insurance Group,
8% Gen Re, 34%
$50
Acquired General Re
$40
in $ bil

GEICO, 16%
$30

$20

$10 Berkshire
Hathaway
$0 Reinsurance
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Group, 42%
Note: Average Insurance float is presented for 1990-1996. Ending Insurance float is presented for 1997 thru 2009.
Total Float YE 2009 $62 billion

Cost of Float Pre-tax Insurance Investment Income


$6
30% $5.2
25% $4.8 $4.7 $4.9 $4.8
$5
20% $4.3
15% $4 $3.5
in $ billions

10%
5% $3
0%
-5% $2
-10%
$1
-15%
-20%
$0
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011E
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E

Note: General Re, which was acquired in December 1998, eliminated a one-quarter reporting lag reporting in 2000. Cost of float data for 2000 is adjusted to
show 12 months.
Source: Company data, Barclays Capital Research

BERKSHIRE’S SOURCES OF VALUE

Berkshire Hathaway has two major sources of value—invested assets primarily in its insurance operations, and the value of
earnings from sources other than investments and insurance. The company’s investments and cash in the insurance and
other business are $146 bn as of YE09 and are expected to generate recurring income as well as unrealized gains or losses.
Berkshire’s roughly 70 other businesses than insurance are mostly economically sensitive and suffered declining returns on
equity over the past several years. Pre-tax earnings from the non-insurance businesses were $4 bn in 2009, down 35% vs
2008 excluding unusual items, reflecting the impact of the recession.

Investments—A Key Source of Berkshire’s Value

Berkshire’s investments mostly from Insurance operations are one of the company’s primary sources of value. Berkshire’s
investments and cash at year-end 2009 were $146 bn, excluding investments in the finance and utility operations. About half
of these investments are funded by Berkshire’s insurance float. The company made roughly $20 billion of new investments
during the financial crisis beginning in 2008, which have paid off attractively so far.

• Equities: As of YE09, Berkshire’s equity investments of $57 billion include large stakes in Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo,
Procter & Gamble, American Express, and Kraft Foods (five largest investments account for about 60% of equities
holdings). In early 2009, Berkshire suffered a $3 bn pre-tax loss from its equity stake in ConocoPhillips. In addition to
owning General Re, Berkshire Hathaway is the largest shareholder of Munich Re with 8% ownership, and owns a 3%
stake in Swiss Re. We view Berkshire’s stakes in two of GenRe’s major competitors as financial investments rather
than potential paths to an outright acquisition.

• Fixed maturity investments: These total $33 billion as of YE09, with corporate bonds (both investment-grade and
below investment-grade) and foreign government bonds accounting for the largest proportion. U.S. Treasuries,
municipal bonds, and mortgage backed securities account for the remainder.

• Other investments: These total $29 billion as of YE09, and include investments made during the financial crisis in
Goldman Sachs, General Electric, Wrigley, Dow Chemical, and Swiss Re. In total, these investments are expected to

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generate $2 bn of annual investment income, and provide evidence of Berkshire’s ability to deploy large amounts of
cash quickly at attractive rates of return.

In 2008, Berkshire purchased convertible preferred and warrant investments with 10% dividends in Goldman Sachs
($5 bn) and General Electric ($3 bn) at the height of the financial crisis, as well as $4.4 bn of Wrigley subordinated
notes (11.45% coupon) due in 2018 and $2.1 bn of 5% preferred stock.

The Goldman and GE warrants issued to Berkshire expire in 2013. The strike price for the Goldman warrants is $115
(versus a current share price of $179.50), and the strike price for the GE warrants is $22.24 (versus a current share
price of $18.56). These deals provide evidence of Berkshire’s ability to deploy large amounts of cash quickly at
attractive rates of return.

In 2009, Berkshire invested CHF 3 bn ($2.7 bn) in a Swiss Re perpetual convertible preferred security carrying a 12%
coupon to support Swiss Re’s financial condition. Swiss Re intends to redeem its convert issued to Berkshire now
that Swiss Re’s financial condition has improved and to avoid dilution to its existing common shareholders. This
convert can be redeemed by Swiss Re at 120% of face value beginning March 2011 (140% before then), meaning
about $325 mn of annual investment income would be lost upon redemption. Warren Buffett’s investment in Swiss
Re (CH:RUKN) was shrewd in hindsight since the conversion price is CHF 25—substantially below Swiss Re’s
current share price of CHF 52.35.

Berkshire also purchased a $3 bn investment in Dow Chemical convertible preferreds with a 8.5% coupon.

• Cash: As of YE09, Berkshire’s cash balance was $31 billion (with $8 billion committed to finance the BNSF
acquisition), down from $44 billion in 2006. Warren Buffett intends to hold at least $20 billion in cash, and the rating
agencies expect Berkshire to maintain at least $10 bn of cash on hand.

Figure 11. Investments & Pre-tax Insurance Investment Income


Investments
Investment Mix

Fixed Income,
Cash, 19.1% 22.3%
Investments
in $ bil per A share
$180 $120,000
$160
$100,000
$140
$120 $80,000
$100 Other, 19.9%
$60,000
$80
$60 $40,000
$40 Equity, 38.7%
$20,000
$20
$0 $0
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011E
Total Investments at fair value: $146 billion as of YE09
Investments Investments Per Class A Share

$6 Pre-tax Insurance Investment Income


Other, 28.7% $5.2
AXP, 11.3% $4.9
$5 $4.8 $4.7 $4.8
$4.3

KO, 20.9% $4 $3.5


in $ billions

$3

COP, 3.5% $2
WFC, 16.5%

JNJ, 3.4% $1
PG, 9.2% KFT, 6.5%
$0
Total Equity Investments YE09 $57 billion 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E

Note: Investments are in the Insurance & other business only, not including the finance and utility businesses.
Source: Company data, Barclays Capital Research

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Non-Insurance Businesses Accounts for One-Half of Operating Earnings

Berkshire’s roughly 70 non-insurance businesses account for about half of the company’s pre-tax segment earnings (inclusive
of BNSF), generate roughly $7bn in annual pre-tax earnings, and enhance the company’s sensitivity to economic conditions:
• The Utilities, Energy, and Railroads segment includes MidAmerican, and BNSF. Earnings are expected to grow
through 2011 although these businesses require substantial capital investments.
• The Manufacturing, Service, and Retail unit is Berkshire’s most economically sensitive segment and is expected to
generate modest earnings growth by 2011 from a low base. The largest businesses in this unit include Marmon (a
group of 130 manufacturing and service businesses), McLane (wholesale distribution and logistics services), and
Shaw (carpet manufacturer).
• The Finance and Financial Products unit is mostly Clayton Homes (manufactured housing). This business has been
hurt by housing market weakness and we anticipate profits could recover slowly.

In 2009, Berkshire’s non-insurance operating segment revenues (not including BNSF) declined 9% to $78 billion and pre-tax
earnings fell 35% (excluding the one-time benefit from Constellation in 2008) to $4 billion because of weakness in the
Manufacturing, Service, and Retail segment. Pre-tax earnings for the Non-Insurance businesses per Class B share were
$1.71 ($2,566 per Class A share) in 2009, $3.09 ($4,629 per Class A share including a $705 per share benefit from
Constellation) in 2008, and $2.75 ($4,123 per Class A share) in 2007. Including BNSF, we estimate Non-Insurance pre-tax
earnings per B share could increase to roughly $2.93 ($4,400 per Class A share) in 2010 and $3.33 ($5,000 per Class A
share) in 2011.

Our outlook for Berkshire’s non-insurance businesses is for earnings to increase through 2011 from the addition of BNSF and
a modest recovery in the other units. After suffering a sharp decline in earnings in 2009 due to the weak global economy, we
anticipate a slow recovery in earnings (albeit from depressed levels) by 2011 for the Manufacturing Service & Retail segment
as well as the Finance and Financial Products unit. The MidAmerican utility business is expected to generate modest
normalized earnings growth driven by PacifiCorp’s rate cases, coupled with a drop in some expenses and continued
investment in the platform.

Figure 12. Non Insurance Business Metrics


Non Insurance Revenues Pre-tax Operating Margin

$120,000
30%

$100,000 25%

20%
$80,000
15%
in $ mil

$60,000
10%

$40,000 5%

0%
$20,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E

$0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
MidAmerican Burlington Northern Manufacturing, Service, Retailing Finance & Financial Products
Manufacturing, Service, Retailing MidAmerican
Burlington Northern Finance & Financial Products

Non Insurance Pre-tax Earnings


Non Insurance Pre-tax Earnings Per Class A Share

$10,000 $6,000

$8,000 $5,000

$6,000 $4,000
in $ mil

$4,000 $3,000

$2,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
$0
-$2,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E -$1,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
MidAmerican Constellation (2008)
MidAmerican Constellation (2008)
Burlington Northern Manufacturing, Service, Retailing
Burlington Northern Manufacturing, Service, Retailing
Finance & Financial Products Earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests
Finance & Financial Products Earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital research

BERKSHIRE’S INSURANCE PROFITS EXPECTED TO DECLINE

Insurance is the core of Berkshire Hathaway’s business, contributing about half of segment pre-tax proforma operating
earnings in 2009. Warren Buffett extols the benefits of Berkshire’s insurance because it usually generates low or negative
cost funds available for investment. Berkshire’s insurance ratings were recently cut to the AA level from AAA, but this change

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Equity Research
is not expected to have a meaningful impact on its business or borrowing costs. Berkshire’s major insurance operations
include:
• GEICO, the third largest automobile insurer in the U.S.,
• General Re, one of the world’s largest reinsurers,
• Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group, which uses Berkshire’s substantial capital position to write large and
unusual risks such as property catastrophe or retroactive reinsurance , and
• Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group is smaller than the other insurance units and consistently contributes float at
negative cost.

Berkshire is one of the largest writers of motor vehicle insurance in the U.S. and reinsurance globally. However, it has a less
significant presence in U.S. primary commercial property-casualty insurance as the 13th largest writer. Other publicly-traded
U.S. commercial P&C insurers with a similar or larger market share than Berkshire include Chartis (AIG), Travelers, Zurich,
CNA, ACE, Chubb, The Hartford, and XL Capital.

Figure 13. Insurance Segment Contribution - 2009

Revenues Pre-tax Earnings

Insurance
Revenue
$33.1 billion
Non-Insurance
Pre-tax Income
$7.0 billion Insurance Pre-
Non-Insurance tax Income
Revenue $6,7 billion
$91.7 billion

Note: Non-Insurance revenues and pre-tax earnings are proforma for BNSF acquisition.
Source: Company Data, Barclays Capital Research

GEICO’s premiums and underwriting earnings profile tends to be smooth because auto insurance is a frequency-driven
business. Meanwhile, GenRe’s and BH Reinsurance Group’s premium volume and underwriting results can be volatile
because they specialize in high-severity exposures. In fact, Berkshire has said it is willing to lose $7 billion in a single insured
event if properly paid for assuming the risk.

Auto insurance rates are rising modestly, although policies-in-force (PIF) growth could slow due to the weak economy, and
underwriting margins have compressed due to rising loss cost trends. Traditional reinsurance pricing is flat-to-down 10%
reflecting stable demand and increased capacity now that the industry’s balance sheet has recovered from the financial crisis
and catastrophe losses in 2009 were low.

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Equity Research
Figure 14. Berkshire’s Insurance Businesses Metrics
Premiums Earned Underwriting Profits
in $ bil
in $ bil $5
$35
$4
$30
$25 $3
$20 $2
$15 $1
$10 $0
$5 -$1
$0
-$2
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E

GEICO GenRe BHRG BHPG


GEICO GenRe BHRG BHPG

in $ bil Insurance Float Pre-tax Investment Income


in $ bil
$70
$6
$60
$5
$50
$40 $4
$30 $3
$20 $2
$10
$1
$0
$0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
GEICO GenRe BHRG BHPG

Source: Company Data, Barclays Capital Research

GEICO—Among Berkshire’s Strongest Operations

GEICO is a pure-play motor vehicle insurer focused on the U.S. private passenger market. It is among Berkshire Hathaway’s
most well-known businesses, providing a steady stream of underwriting profits as well as negative cost float for investments.
GEICO’s market share gains reflect consumers’ increasing comfort with buying low-cost automobile insurance over the
telephone and internet. However, reflecting industry trends, we expect GEICO’s growth to slow and underwriting margins to
decline due to rising loss cost trends. GEICO’s results tend to be less volatile that Berkshire’s other insurance businesses
because of its low catastrophe exposure and the outsourcing of homeowner’s insurance coverage.

GEICO, based in Chevy Chase, Maryland, is the third largest private passenger motor vehicle insurer in the U.S. with $14
billion of annual premium volume (up from $3 bn when Berkshire acquired full ownership of the company in 1996), and
accounts for roughly half of Berkshire’s Insurance premium volume. Once the economy recovers, GEICO’s modest
commercial auto insurance business could contribute to growth.

GEICO’s chairman, president and CEO is Tony Nicely, age 66, who joined the company in 1960 and assumed leadership in
1992. Since becoming CEO, Mr. Nicely aggressively expanded GEICO’s market share to 8.1% in 2009 up from 1.9% in 1993,
a level the company had long maintained. GEICO’s performance is judged on 1) its percentage growth in policyholders, and
2) the earnings of its “seasoned” business, meaning policies that have been in-force for more than a year. GEICO keeps its
operating expenses low compared to premium volume, which means the company has strong positive operating leverage.
GEICO’s chief investment officer is Lou Simpson. He joined GEICO in 1979 and has been GEICO’s chief investment officer
for over 20 years. His investment performance, which reflects in part a $6.6 billion allocation to equities, is often praised by
Warren Buffett.

GEICO consistently gains market share and reports best-in-class premium volume growth owing to its low-cost strategy and
strong brand awareness. GEICO is the largest advertising spender in the auto insurance sector with an annual budget of
$800 million, nearly double the advertising budget of the second largest auto insurance advertiser. GEICO contributes 16%
($9.6 billion) of Berkshire’s $62 billion float, reflecting the short-tail nature of this insurance business. GEICO’s statutory
(accounting method used by state insurance regulators) operating income excluding after-tax net realized investment
gains/losses was $790 million in 2009, down from $974 million in 2008.

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Equity Research
Figure 15. GEICO Metrics
Private Passenger Auto Insurance Market Share Insurance Float

9% 8.1% $12.0 16%


8% 7.6%
7.1% 14%
6.7% $10.0
7% 6.2% 12%
6% 5.5%
5.0% $8.0
4.7% 10%

In $ billions
5% 4.6%

% chg
$6.0 8%
4%
3% 6%
$4.0
2% 4%
1% $2.0
2%
0%
$0.0 0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Insurance Float % chg

Statutory Net Income Statutory Operating Income


In $Millions In $Millions
$1,600 $1,429 $1,400 $1,259
$1,385 $1,229
$1,400 $1,238 $1,200 $1,058
$1,200 $974
$1,000
$1,000 $790
$800
$800 $715
$600
$600
$400 $400
$205
$200 $200

$0 $0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Note: Operating income excludes after-tax net realized investment gains and losses.
Source: Company data, SNL Insurance, Barclays Capital research.

GEICO was founded in 1936 and initially sold auto insurance to U.S. government employees. The company is now the
fastest growing major auto insurer in the United States. Berkshire Hathaway acquired GEICO in two stages. From 1976-
1980, Berkshire bought about one-third of GEICO’s shares for $47 million. GEICO made large repurchases of its stock in
subsequent years causing Berkshire’s ownership stake to grow to 50%. In 1996, Berkshire acquired the remaining 50% of
GEICO it did not already own for $2.3 billion. GEICO’s statutory capital is currently $8.3 bn, meaning the company is probably
now worth vastly more than when Berkshire acquired full control.

GEICO’s Advantages. GEICO’s key competitive strengths are its low-cost operating model and strong brand awareness
generated through aggressive marketing, which translates into profitable growth. GEICO sells its policies primarily through
the direct response channel—a cost-efficient method where applications for insurance are submitted directly to the company
via the Internet, telephone or mail.

Approximately one-quarter of U.S. personal auto insurance is sold through the direct channel (including GEICO). Direct
writers are gaining market share mostly from the exclusive agency channel, which still controls about 40% of the market
(major writers include State Farm and Allstate). Consumers show increasing comfort with buying auto insurance without an
agent and GEICO often offers coverage for lower prices than competitors. In the independent agency channel (agents who
sell insurance on behalf of multiple insurers, such as TRV), market share has been mostly stable at roughly one-third.

Importantly, we believe the direct channel’s capacity to gain market share is restricted at some point. This is because many
customers prefer to purchase their auto, homeowner’s and umbrella insurance through the same insurer (such as State Farm
or Allstate) rather than buy these policies through separate insurers, and multi-policy discounts can result in competitive
pricing.

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Equity Research
Figure 16. Direct Insurers Gaining Market Share In Personal Auto
Direct insurers
gaining market
share
1989 1997 2007
Direct, 5%
Direct, 17%
Direct, 24% Captive
Independent Captive Agency, 41%
Agency, 32% Agency, 47%

Independent
Captive Agency, 36%
Agency, 63% Independent
Agency, 35%

Source: A.M. Best, Travelers, Barclays Capital research.

U.S. private passenger auto insurance market share is highly concentrated among the top ten insurers, with State Farm and
Allstate having the first and second largest market share, respectively. GEICO’s market share increased to 8.1% in 2009 from
7.6% in 2008 and PGR’s market share (includes direct and agency) increased to 7.5% in 2009 from 7.1% in 2008, while
Allstate’s market share fell slightly and State Farm’s increased modestly. As a point of reference, each 1 point gain in U.S.
personal auto insurance market share is equivalent to approximately $1.6 bn of premiums.

Figure 17. Private Passenger Auto Insurance Market Share


20% 18.6%

16%

12%
10.5%

8.2%
7.5%
8%
6.4%

4.5% 4.4% 4.1%


4%
2.1% 2.0%

0%
State Farm Allstate GEICO Progressive Zurich/ Farmers Nationwide Liberty Mutual USAA Travelers American
Family

Source: Company data, SNL Financial, Barclays Capital research.

GEICO Results & Outlook. We expect GEICO to continue to deliver industry leading premium and policies-in-force growth,
albeit at a slowing pace. Warren Buffett expects GEICO’s growth to slow in 2010 due in part to reduced U.S. vehicle
registrations, and high unemployment causing drivers to buy less coverage. We expect GEICO’s pre-tax underwriting income
to decline in 2010 and 2011 reflecting an increased combined ratio.
• Premiums written at GEICO increased 5% to $13.4 bn in 2009. We expect growth to slow to 3% in 2010 and 2% in
2011.
• GEICO’s combined ratio rose over the past several years reflecting an increasingly competitive auto insurance market.
We expect this result to deteriorate further from 95% in 2009 to 98% in 2010 and 100% in 2011 as loss cost inflation
rises.
• Pre-tax underwriting income at GEICO fell 29% to $649 mn in 2009 due to deteriorating underwriting margins. We
expect pre-tax underwriting income to continue to fall to $340 mn in 2010 and $65 mn in 2011.

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Equity Research
Figure 18. GEICO Financial Projections, 2005-2011E
Net Written Premiums Policies-In-Force Growth
Premiums Growth Rate

14% 12.4%
$16 $13.8 $14.1 14%
$12.7 $13.4 12% 10.7%
$14 $11.9 12%
$11.3
$12 $10.3 10% 10% 8.8%
8.2% 7.8%
$10
In $ bn

8% 8%
$8
6% 6%
$6
$4 4%
4%
$2 2%
$0 0% 2%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 0%


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Net Written Premiums Growth Rate

Pre-tax Underwriting Income


105%
Combined Ratio
$1,400 $1,314
99.7% $1,221
100% 98.2%
96.0% $1,200 $1,113

95% 93.5% 93.6% $916


91.3% $1,000

90% In $ mn $800 $649


85.7%
$600
85%
$340
$400
80%
$200 $65
75%
$0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital estimates.

General Re’s Results Are Strong

General Re (GenRe) is one of the world’s largest reinsurers with $10 billion of U.S. statutory surplus, and contributes $21 bn
of Berkshire’s $62 billion of total float. Berkshire acquired GenRe in 1998 for $22 billion in stock, and at the time was
Berkshire’s largest acquisition. Subsequently, GenRe suffered reserve inadequacy and underwriting discipline issues in the
years 1998-2002. The unit was referred to as a “problem child” in Mr. Buffett’s 2003 annual letter to shareholders. GenRe’s
management successfully turned the company around and it has delivered strong underwriting results since 2003 (with the
exception of 2005 due to hurricane losses). GenRe’s U.S. P&C statutory operating income, which excludes after-tax net
realized investment gains/losses was $1.3 billion in 2009 reflecting few catastrophe losses, up from $406 million in 2008 in a
year impacted by catastrophe losses.

(continued on next page)

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Equity Research
Figure 19. GenRe Key Metrics
in $ bil
$35 Gross Written Premiums, 2008 General Re Float
$25 $24
$29 $29 $23 $23 $23 $23
$30 $22
$21 $21
$25 $20 $19

$20
in $ bil

$15 $16
$15
$15 $13 $15
$11
$9 $8
$10
$6 $5 $4 $4 $4 $10
$5 $3 $3 $3 $2

$0
SCOR

$5
Swiss Re

Munich Re

Berkshire Hathaway Re

Hannover Re

RGA Re

Partner Re

London Re

Everest Re

Korean Re

Mapfre

Odyssey Re
Transatlantic

XL Capital
Lloyd's

$0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

In $Millions
In $Millions Statutory Net Income Statutory Operating Income

$1,400
$1,400 $1,281

$1,164 $1,200
$1,200

$1,000 $1,000

$800 $763 $800 $727


$721 $705
$631
$594
$600 $600

$406
$400 $400
$300

$200 $200

$0 $0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Note: (1) Partner Re's 2008 premiums are presented proforma for the purchase of Paris Re in 4Q09; (2) Berkshire Hathaway Re includes General
Reinsurance and Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group; (3) Operating income excludes after-tax realized investment gains and losses; (4) Statutory net
and operating income is U.S. P&C operations only.
Source: A.M. Best, Company data, Barclays Capital Research

GenRe’s CEO is Tad Montross, who assumed leadership from Joe Brandon in 2007 after Mr. Brandon stepped down. Mr.
Montross has done a good job in improving GenRe’s results in our view. GenRe’s management performance is judged solely
on underwriting profitability without regard to premium volume trends. This factor is important because it emphasizes
profitability over growth.

GenRe’s Advantages. One of GenRe’s strengths is its strong ratings from the rating agencies (A++ rating from A.M. Best,
and AA from the other key rating agencies). Although GenRe is no longer rated AAA, none of its competitors have AAA
ratings either. Backed by Berkshire’s strong balance sheet, GenRe has the ability to write substantial amounts of business if
capacity shortfalls emerge and market conditions become attractive. GenRe has the advantage of being able to write
business that competitors might otherwise decline due to concerns of some reinsurance contracts causing increased earnings
volatility or generating optically unattractive accounting results (even though the economic results could be quite favorable).

GenRe’s major P&C reinsurance competitors include Munich Re, Swiss Re (the two largest reinsurers globally), Hannover Re,
and Lloyd’s of London as well as Bermuda reinsurers including RenaissanceRe, PartnerRe, XL Capital, and ACE Limited.

Competitive Reinsurance Market Conditions. P&C reinsurance pricing is weakening, driven by increased capacity and
stable demand for coverage, we believe. In 2009, reinsurers benefited from a sharp recovery in capital positions due to
recovering investment portfolio valuations, robust profits from light catastrophe losses (2009 was the lightest Atlantic hurricane
season in 12 years without a single major hurricane), and favorable prior year loss reserve development.

For the important January 2010 renewal season, property catastrophe reinsurance pricing was down 5%-10%, and casualty
reinsurance pricing is down 0%-5%, according to market sources. Barring substantial losses, we anticipate rate erosion could
continue at the current pace. The reinsurance industry is expected to incur most of the roughly $10 bn of insured losses
associated with the 1Q10 Chilean earthquake, although most of Berkshire’s earthquake exposure is in California.

GenRe’s Results & Outlook. GenRe’s reinsurance business mix is roughly evenly split between P&C and life/health.

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Equity Research
• GenRe’s largest P&C market is North America, where 56% of premiums are property reinsurance, 28% are casualty
reinsurance, and 16% is specialty insurance (mostly liability and workers’ compensation coverage on an excess and
surplus basis and excess insurance for self-insured programs).
• GenRe’s life/health reinsurance business is provided through a subsidiary of Cologne Re subsidiary (the world’s
oldest reinsurer). In 2009, 42% of life/health net premiums were written in the United States, 29% in Western Europe,
and 29% throughout the rest of the world.

Figure 20. GenRe Business Mix - 2009


Total Gen Re Business Mix

Life/ Health,
46%
P&C, 54%

Total 2009 premiums: $5.7 billion

Life/ Health Business Mix North America P&C Business Mix


Specialty
Insurance
All other 16%
29%
United States
42%

Property
Reinsurance
Casualty
56%
Reinsurance
28%

Western Europe
29%

Source: Company Data, Barclays Capital Research

GenRe’s P&C results reflect declining premium volume and reduced underwriting profitability driven by an increasingly
competitive reinsurance market.
• P&C earned premiums increased 3% in 2009, fell 8% in 2008, and decreased 10% in 2007 (excluding one-time items
and FX for all years) driven by continued underwriting discipline in an increasingly competitive environment. Growth
in 2009 was due to increased volume in European treaty and Lloyd’s market property business, but premium volume
in 2010 is expected to decline due to increased competition.
• P&C underwriting profits in 2009 were $300 million (90.6% combined ratio), reflecting underwriting profits of $478
million from property business and losses of $178 million from casualty/workers’ compensation business. The
underwriting profits in property business reflected low catastrophe losses and reserve releases. Underwriting losses
from casualty/workers’ compensation business were primarily the result of establishing higher loss reserves for 2009
accident year occurrences to reflect higher loss trends as well as $118 million of workers’ compensation loss reserve
discount accretion and deferred charge amortization, offset in part by reserve releases.

GenRe’s life/health recent results reflect modest underlying growth due to increased international business. It offers life,
health, long-term care, and disability reinsurance coverage on an individual and group basis. Primary life/health insurers use
reinsurance to manage capital and mortality risk. Life reinsurance growth is driven largely by demand for underlying
insurance products, and underwriting results depend largely on mortality (the rate at which people die). As Solvency II moves
closer to adoption in Europe, demand for life reinsurance could increase due to rising capital requirements for primary
insurers.
• Life/health earned premiums excluding the effects of foreign currency increased 5% in 2009, and rose 2% in 2008.
The increase in 2009 was primarily due to international business.
• Underwriting results for the global life/health operations produced underwriting gains of $177 million in 2009, $179
million in 2008 and $80 million in 2007 driven by gains due primarily to favorable mortality experience in all three
years.

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Equity Research

Figure 21. General Re Key Metrics


Gen Re Earned Premiums Gen Re P&C Combined Ratio
$10 30%
$9 160%
25%
100% Combined Ratio
$8 20% 140%
$7 15% 120%
$6
In $ bn

10%

% chg
100%
$5
5% 80%
$4
$3 0% 60%
$2 -5%
40%
$1 -10%
20%
$0 -15%
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011E 0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E2011E
Premiums Earned % Change in Premiums Earned

Gen Reinsurance Pre-tax Underwriting Gain (Loss) in $ bil Gen Re Float


in $ mil $25
$1,000
$500 $20
$0
($500) $15
($1,000)
($1,500) $10
($2,000)
($2,500) $5
($3,000)
($3,500)
$0
($4,000)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011E

Source: Company Data, Barclays Capital Research

GenRe – Loss Reserves Analysis. Gen Re’s P&C gross loss reserves are $18 billion as of YE09. Reserves are roughly
evenly split between reported case reserves (reserves established for reported claims), and incurred but not reported (IBNR)
claims. The substantial level of IBNR reserves likely means GenRe is being conservative in accounting for ultimate claim
liabilities.

Analyzing GenRe’s loss reserves another way, 68% are for long-tail lines including workers’ compensation, professional
liability, and asbestos/environmental. These reserves generate significant float for investment because claims may are not
expected to be paid out for many years. However, setting long-tail loss reserves accurately is a challenging process with the
potential for significant divergence versus the correct level of reserves especially over a long time frame. GenRe’s remaining
32% of reserves are for short-tail lines such as automobile insurance liability or property claims, which are typically quickly
paid.

Figure 22. GenRe’s Loss Reserves – 2009


Gen Re Gross Loss Reserves Gen Re Loss Reserves by Line of Business
Workers'
compensation,
Property, 14% 17%

Professional
Other general Liability, 7%
IBNR reserves, liability, 16%
47% Reported case
reserves, 53% Mass tort-
asbestos/ enviro
nmental, 10%

Other casualty,
17% Auto liability,
17%

Total: $18 bn Total: $18 bn

Note: Based on gross loss reserves.


Source: Company Data, Barclays Capital Research

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Equity Research
Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group Generates Significant Float

Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group (BHRG) is known for writing large and unusual risks. This business is based in
Stamford, Connecticut and is led by Ajit Jain, who often receives praise from Warren Buffett as one of Berkshire’s most valued
leaders. This unit’s front office is staffed by only 30 employees and is among the world’s largest writers of super-cat and
retroactive reinsurance coverage. Also, BHRG is a major contributor to Berkshire Hathaway’s float as a result of writing long-
tail liability contracts. As of YE09, BHRG generated $26 billion of float out of a total of $62 billion.

BHRG has written challenging retroactive reinsurance (past loss event) risks such as adverse loss reserve development
coverage for ACE’s asbestos and environmental liability reserves, and Equitas (Lloyd’s of London’s legacy liability entity). In
2009, Berkshire entered into a life reinsurance deal that could generate $50 billion of premiums over the next roughly 50
years. BHRG’s lead insurance entity is National Indemnity Company (NICO), which is among Berkshire Hathaway’s largest
insurance units with $38 bn of statutory capital.

Figure 23. Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group Float


$30
$26
$24 $24
$25

$20
$16 $17
in $ billions

$15
$15 $13 $14
$11
$10 $8
$6
$4 $4
$5

$0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Company Data, Barclays Capital Research

BH Reinsurance’s annual and quarterly premium volume as well as underwriting results can generate volatility because
significant portions of premium volume can be driven by a small number of large risks. Catastrophe underwriting profits are
expected to be robust in years with no large catastrophe losses, but are likely to show losses in years with heavy cat activity.

Figure 24. Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group Premiums & Underwriting Profits
BHRG Premiums Earned By Unit BHRG Underwriting Profit (Losses) By Unit
in $ billions in $ millions
$14 $2,000

$12 $1,500

$1,000
$10
$500
$8
$0
$6 -$500

$4 -$1,000

-$1,500
$2
-$2,000
$0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
Catastrophe & individual risk Retroactive reinsurance Other multi-line
Catastrophe & individual risk Retroactive reinsurance Other multi-line

Source: Company Data, Barclays Capital Research

BHRG has three reporting lines: Catastrophe and individual risk, retroactive reinsurance, and other multi-line. Premiums and
underwriting results can be volatile in catastrophe and individual risk, as well as retroactive reinsurance. This situation reflects
high-severity exposure in the catastrophe line, and attractive economic results from retroactive reinsurance contracts typically
not being evident under GAAP accounting treatment.

BHRG Catastrophe and Individual Risk. These contracts may provide exceptionally large limits of indemnification, often
several hundred million dollars and occasionally in excess of $1 billion, and cover catastrophe risks (such as hurricanes,

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Equity Research
earthquakes or other natural disasters) or other property and liability risks (such as aviation and aerospace, commercial multi-
peril or terrorism). The timing and magnitude of losses can produce extraordinary volatility in interim or annual underwriting
results.

BHRG’s catastrophe and individual risk premiums written were $725 million in 2009, $1.1 billion in 2008, $1.2 billion in 2007.
Keep in mind, Berkshire’s premium volume can expand significantly in periods of reinsurance market dislocation and contract
when rates are unattractive. For example, catastrophe risk premium volume was $2.4 billion in 2006 in the year following
Hurricanes Katrina, Wilma, and Rita.

We expect catastrophe premium volume to decline for at least the first half of 2010 based on soft market conditions. In early
2009, Berkshire constrained the volume of catastrophe business written in response to the decline in shareholder’s equity that
occurred in 1Q09. Berkshire’s net worth recovered significantly since then, but the volume of business written declined in light
of the BNSF acquisition. Also, catastrophe rates were not attractive enough in 2009 to warrant increasing volume.
Underwriting results over the past three years reflected no significant catastrophe losses in 2009 and moderate claims
expenses in 2008 from Hurricanes Gustav and Ike.

BHRG Retroactive Reinsurance. Retroactive reinsurance is a key differentiating factor for Ajit Jain’s BHRG operation
because few companies are willing to reinsure these risks. From an accounting standpoint, retroactive insurance contacts are
expected to produce underwriting losses, but the economics should be attractive over the life of the contract taking into
account the benefit of investment income generated from the upfront cash (float).

Retroactive reinsurance premiums earned declined from $7.7 billion in 2007 (reflecting the Equitas transaction) to $204 million
in 2008, and rose to $2 billion in 2009 due to a transaction with Swiss Re. Underwriting losses, which are expected under
GAAP accounting treatment for these contracts, were $375 mn in 2007, $414 mn in 2008, and $448 mn n 2009.

In 2009, retroactive reinsurance premiums earned included 2 billion Swiss Francs (approximately $1.7 billion) from a contract
with Swiss Re. This contract covers substantially all of Swiss Re’s non-life insurance losses for adverse development on loss
events occurring prior to January 1, 2009. The Swiss Re reserve cover provides aggregate limits of indemnification of 5 billion
CHF (about $4.7 bn) in excess of a retention of Swiss Re’s reported loss reserves at December 31, 2008 (59 billion CHF) less
2 billion CHF. The impact on underwriting results from this contract in 2009 was negligible because the premiums earned
were offset by a corresponding amount of established loss reserves. In January 2010, Swiss Re separately reinsured a $1.5
billion book of closed block of U.S. life insurance business with Berkshire.

BHRG Other Multi-Line. Other multi-line mostly reflects the results in BHRG other than property catastrophe and retroactive
reinsurance. Other multi-line premiums earned in 2009 of $3.9 billion were relatively unchanged from 2008. Premiums
earned in 2009 and 2008 included $2.8 billion and $1.8 billion, respectively, from a 20% quota-share contract with Swiss Re
covering substantially all of Swiss Re’s property/casualty risks for five years from January 1, 2008 through December 31,
2012. Excluding the Swiss Re quota-share contract, which Swiss Re needed to support its balance sheet, other multi-line
business premiums earned in 2009 declined $969 million (46%) compared to 2008, primarily due to significant reductions in
aviation, property, workers’ compensation, and Lloyd’s market volume.

Other multi-line premiums earned in 2008 increased $1.3 billion (50%) over 2007 reflecting premiums earned from the Swiss
Re quota-share contract partially offset by lower premium volume from workers’ compensation programs.

Other multi-line underwriting profits declined to $15 mn in 2009 from $962 million in 2008 largely due to FX. Excluding FX,
other multi-line business produced a pre-tax underwriting gain of $295 million in 2009, $32 million in 2008 and $435 million in
2007. Pre-tax underwriting results in 2008 included approximately $435 million of estimated catastrophe losses from
Hurricanes Gustav and Ike. There were no significant catastrophe losses in 2009 or 2007, which also benefited from low
property loss ratios and favorable loss experience on workers’ compensation business.

In late 2007, BHRG formed a monoline financial guaranty insurance company, Berkshire Hathaway Assurance Corp (BHAC).
This business is small in the scope of Berkshire Hathaway, although it provides a good example of Berkshire addressing
market dislocations where he believes reasonable risk-adjusted returns can be generated. BHAC targets the municipal bond
market after the fallout from dislocation suffered by Ambac and MBIA resulting from the financial crisis. BHAC began writing
business in 1Q08. In its first year of operation, BHAC produced $595 million of premiums. In 2009, as a result of rising risk
and reduced prices, BHAC wrote about $40 million in premiums, most of which was in the first half of the year. The recent
rating agency downgrades of Berkshire’s insurance operations to the AA level could impact demand for coverage, in our view.

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Equity Research
BH Reinsurance Group’s Loss Reserves Mix. BHRG’s gross loss reserves were $28 billion as of YE09. Of this amount,
$18 billion were for retroactive (known) losses including $9 billion for asbestos, environmental, and other latent injury
reserves. BHRG’s maximum payable losses under long-tail retroactive policies are $29 billion, although management
believes it is unlikely current reserves would develop upward or downward by more than 15% of the $18 bn of established
reserves. Importantly, Berkshire Hathaway is able to invest these funds for years before the claims will be paid. As a result,
these retroactive contracts are likely to generate substantial returns on investment even after paying the claims.

Long-tail loss reserves generate significant float for investing because claims may not be paid out for years to come.
However, setting long-tail loss reserves accurately is a challenging process with the potential for the correct level of reserving
to diverge from established reserves, especially as time goes on. The remaining reserves are for short-tail lines such as
automobile insurance liability or property claims, which typically are paid quickly.

Figure 25. Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group’s Loss Reserves - 2009

(in $ millions)
Type Property Casualty Total
Reported case reserves………………………… $1,524 $2,669 $4,193
IBNR reserves…………………………………… 1,889 4,054 5,943
Retroactive……………………………………… - 17,973 17,973
Gross reserves…………………………………… $3,413 $24,696 28,109
Deferred charges and ceded reserves……………… (4,964)
Net reserves………………………………………………………….. $23,145
Source: Company Data, Barclays Capital Research

Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group Generates Lost-Cost Float

Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group (BHPG) consists of independently managed insurance businesses generating $1.8 bn in
annual premiums (a 9% decline vs. 2008) that mostly write liability coverages for commercial accounts. Other lines of
coverage offered include healthcare malpractice and recreational watercraft. Overall, BHPG accounts for about 6% of the
Insurance segment’s earned premiums and contributes negative cost float. BHPG’s year-end 2009 float is $5.1 billion and
accounts for 8% of Berkshire’s overall float.

BHPG’s underwriting results are deteriorating due to increased competition in most business lines. This segment’s largest
business line is medical professional liability, which accounts for about one-third of BHPG annual premiums. Other P&C lines
include commercial auto and general liability provided by National Indemnity Company’s (NICO) primary group, recreational
watercraft, workers’ compensation, credit and income protection for credit and debit card holders, as well as professional
liability and financial fidelity coverage for small and medium sized banks in the Midwest U.S.

(continued on next page)

24
Equity Research
Figure 26. Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group Key Metrics
BH Primary Group Premiums Earned BH Primary Group: Pre-tax Underwriting Gains/ Losses

$400
$2,500 $340
$1,999 $350
$1,858 $1,950 $279
$2,000 $1,773 $1,720 $1,750 $300
$235
$1,498 $250 $210

in $ millions
in $ millions

$1,500 $200
$150
$1,000 $84
$100
$50 $27
$500 $(12)
$0
$0 -$50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E

BH Primary Group: Float

$6,000
$5,061
$5,000 $4,739
$4,029 $4,229
$4,000 $3,442
in $ millions

$3,000

$2,000

$1,000

$0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Company Data, Barclays Capital Research

BURLINGTON NORTHERN SANTA FE—POSITIONED FOR GROWTH

Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF), based in Forth Worth, Texas, is one of the largest railroad systems in the US with a
network spanning over 30,000 miles primarily west of the Mississippi River. The company, which is positioned for growth in
our view, was acquired in February 2010 by Berkshire Hathaway in a transaction valued at $34 billion. Warren Buffett views
BNSF as an attractive business with the prospect of significantly increasing earnings over time, although it requires
substantial capital expenditures (currently $2.2 billion annually). Mr. Buffett believes BNSF benefits from a strong
management team led by CEO Matthew Rose (age 50), and increases Berkshire’s exposure to the long-term economic
growth of the United States. The acquisition of BNSF is expected to provide Warren Buffett with opportunities to redeploy
cash at reasonable rates of return, similar to its MidAmerican utility business.

Berkshire Hathaway completed the acquisition of the remaining 77.4% of BNSF it did not already own in February 2010,
which is its largest deal to date, for $26 billion (60% in cash and 40% in Berkshire shares). BNSF has $10 billion of existing
debt and the company is expected to issue additional debt as needed, which will not be guaranteed by Berkshire.

The following analysis of Burlington Northern Santa Fe is provided by Gary Chase, who is Barclays Capital’s Airfreight &
Ground Transportation senior equity analyst. Add title and date of note.

Berkshire’s acquisition price for BNSF was not a bargain in the view of Warren Buffett. Berkshire’s purchase valued BNSF at
roughly 7.5x EV/EBITDA and a P/E ratio of 15.7x, based on BarCap’s 2010 estimates at that time. Based on 2010 consensus
estimates, the valuation appears closer to 8x EV/EBITDA and 18x P/E ratio. In terms of valuing the BNSF franchise going
forward, the railroads (UNP, NSC, and CSX) are currently trading at approximately 7x EV/EBITDA & 13x-15x forward P/E.

25
Equity Research
Figure 27. Railroad Operator Valuation Comparisons
CSX NSC UNP
2011E 2011E 2011E

Credit Metrics
Adjusted Debt / EBITDAR 2.5x 2.2x 2.2x
Debt / EBITDA 2.0x 1.7x 1.3x
Debt / Capitalization 41.6% 34.6% 27.7%
Adjusted Debt / Capitalization 49.4% 42.4% 44.2%
Valuation Ratios
Adjusted EV / Revenue 2.8x 3.0x 3.1x
Adjusted EV / EBITDAR 7.1x 7.1x 7.3x
EV / EBITDA 7.1x 7.2x 7.4x
EV / EBIT 9.5x 9.4x 9.9x
P / E Ratio 14.1x 13.7x 15.2x
Price to Book 1.9x 1.8x 1.9x
Source: Barclays Capital estimates.

BNSF is expected to generate the strongest earnings growth of Berkshire Hathaway’s major businesses reflecting the
potential for rising revenues due to an economic recovery, and positive operating leverage. BNSF performed well in the
recent recession; the company maintained operating profitability of ~23% in 2009, similar to levels achieved in the prior five
years despite revenues declining more than 20% as freight demand deteriorated and fuel surcharge revenue declined. We
anticipate BNSF could deliver net income of approximately $2.1 billion in 2010 (up 21% year-over-year) and $2.4 billion in
2011 (up 15%), which would be consistent with average modeled earning increases for UNP (the most relevant comparable
company for BNSF in our view), NSC, and CSX.

BNSF transports a range of products and commodities derived from manufacturing, agricultural and natural resource
industries in serving the Midwest, Pacific Northwest, and the Western, Southwestern and Southeastern regions and ports of
the U.S. BNSF’s share of the western United States rail traffic in 2009 was approximately 49% according to the Association
of American Railroads (AAR).

Figure 28. BNSF Railway Operations

Source: BNSF.

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Equity Research
US Railroads, a Brief Introduction

The US railroads provide transportation for a wide variety of commodities that touch nearly all economic segments from low-
value basic materials to high-value finished consumer & capital goods. In 2009, the major US railroads (defined as BNSF,
CSX, NSC & UNP) had consolidated revenue generation of $44bn. Roughly 44% of this revenue was tied to bulk
commodities such as agricultural or coal shipments; industrial and auto shipments represented 35% of the revenue base; and
21% of revenue generation came from the intermodal segment, which comprises the multi-modal transport of shipping
containers, the vast majority of which facilitate the movement of finished consumer goods (Figure 29). Intermodal transport
comprises the movement of shipping containers via multi-modes (marine, rail, truck, etc.) facilitating the transport of many
finished capital & consumer goods.

Figure 29: In 2009, the Major US Railroads Generated ~$44bn in Revenue


2009 Major US Railroad Segm ent Revenue /1

Auto
5%

Agricultural Industrial
18% 30%

Intermodal
21%
Coal
27%

Note: Major US railroads include BNSF, CSX, NSC & UNP; total revenue for these carriers totaled ~$44bn in 2009.
Source: Company reports, Barclays Capital Research.

Railroad Volume Trends Encouraging

The improvements in weekly railroad industry volumes from 4Q09 combined with easier comparisons should have rail
volumes up near double-digit levels year-over-year in 2Q10. On a sequential basis, railroad volumes have shown significant
strength, though admittedly off depressed levels.

Figure 30. Weekly Railroad Volume Absolute Levels


Weekly Rail Volume North American Weekly Rail Volume
(total units 000s /1)
700 700
1Q10 2Q10
Forecast +6% Forecast +15%
650 650
In thousands

In thousands

600 600

550 550

500 500

450
450
W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W
Wk1
Wk3
Wk5
Wk7
Wk9
Wk11
Wk13
Wk15
Wk17
Wk19
Wk21
Wk23
Wk25

k 1 k6 k1 k 1 k2 k2 k 3 k3 k4 k 4 k5 k4 k 9 k1 k1 k 2
- 0 - 0 1- 6- 1- 6- 1- 6- 1- 6- 1- - 1 - 1 4- 9- 4-
9 9 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 0 0 10 10 10
2009 2010 Forecast

Source: American Association of Railroads, Barclays Capital estimates.

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Equity Research
Revenue per revenue ton-mile (a proxy for rail rates) is expected to increase 8% in 2010 and 4% in 2011, compared to a 13%
decline in 2009. This improvement reflects rising fuel costs, increased demand, and potential inflation. Notably, rising fuel
revenues are offset by increased fuel costs, which are passed along to customers.

Figure 31. BNSF Revenue/RTM


$0.028 25%

20%
$0.026
15%
$0.024
10%
Rev/ RTM

% chg
$0.022 5%

0%
$0.020
-5%
$0.018
-10%

$0.016 -15%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E

Rev/ RTM % chg

Source: Company reports, Barclays Capital estimates.

Burlington Northern: Performing Through the Cycle

BNSF operates a vast rail network in the Western US that generated over $14bn of revenue in 2009 and earnings before
interest expense and taxes (EBIT) of $3.3bn (Figure 32). As the economy slowed dramatically in 2009, BNSF’s revenues
declined over 20% as both freight demand deteriorated and lower fuel prices drove reduced fuel surcharge revenue. Despite
the dramatic drop in revenue, BNSF was able to maintain operating profitability of ~23%, similar to levels achieved in the prior
five years. BNSF is expected to generate about $1.5-$2 billion of annual free cash flow assuming annual after-tax operating
earnings of $2.0-2.5 bn, capex of $2.2 bn, and depreciation expense of $1.7bn.

Figure 32: Burlington Northern Generating Consistent Relative Profitability through Economic Cycle
BN Summary P&L
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E

Total Revenue 12,987 14,984 15,802 18,018 14,082 15,374 16,537

Expense
Labor Related 3,515 3,816 3,773 3,884 3,481 3,501 3,747
Fuel 1,959 2,734 3,327 4,640 2,372 2,807 2,953
D&A 1,075 1,130 1,293 1,397 1,537 1,696 1,736
Rentals 886 930 942 901 777 788 844
All Other 2,559 2,880 2,900 3,094 2,587 2,663 2,851
Total Op Expense 9,994 11,490 12,235 13,916 10,754 11,456 12,131

EBIT 2,993 3,494 3,567 4,102 3,328 3,918 4,406


EBIT Margin 23.0% 23.3% 22.6% 22.8% 23.6% 25.5% 26.6%

EBITDA 4,068 4,624 4,860 5,499 4,865 5,614 6,142


EBITDA Margin 31.3% 30.9% 30.8% 30.5% 34.5% 36.5% 37.1%

Interest Expense 437 485 511 533 561 588 589


Other (Expense) (37) (40) (18) (11) (8) (4) (6)
Pre-Tax Income 2,519 2,969 3,038 3,558 2,759 3,326 3,811

Income Taxes 437 485 511 533 561 1,254 1,429


Net Income 2,082 2,484 2,527 3,025 2,198 2,072 2,382
Net Margin 16.0% 16.6% 16.0% 16.8% 15.6% 13.5% 14.4%

Source: Company reports, Barclays Capital research.

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Equity Research

BNSF maintains a well diversified transportation network with end market exposure to numerous segments of the US
economy. In 2009 the intermodal segment led revenue generation for BNSF representing 29% of revenue, coal was 27%,
industrial 21%, agricultural 21% and autos were 5% (Figure 33). The intermodal segment comprises the movement of
shipping containers via multi-modes (marine, rail, truck, etc.) facilitating the transport of many finished capital & consumer
goods. Excluding intermodal, coal, and by extension the power generation segment, is the single largest market for BNSF.
On a volume basis, intermodal maintains a larger share of traffic due to the relatively low weight and numerous container
shipments compared to the denser bulk commodity & industrial shipments (Figure 34).

Figure 33: BNSF Revenue Mix Figure 34: BNSF Volume Mix
Burlington Northern Revenue Mix Burlington Northern Volum e Mix
($bn) (mm of carloadings / units)
2009 Mix 2009 Mix
20 12
05-09 CAGR 95-05
18 Auto 11 Auto
CAGR 95-05 +2% +3.5%
+4.5% 2% 10 1%
16
9 Ag
14 Ag 8 11%
12 21% 7 Industrial
10 Industrial 6 14%
8 21% 5
Coal
4
6 Coal 05-09 28%
3
4 27% (4.3%)
2 Intermodal
Intermodal
2 1 45%
29%
0 0
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Source: Company reports, Barclays Capital research Source: Company reports, Barclays Capital research

Despite the significant decline in traffic & revenue in 2009, BNSF was able to produce consistent operating profitability owing
to the carrier’s ability to quickly resize network capacity to commensurate volume levels (Figure 35). Intuitively, railroads are
expected to have significantly high fixed costs (asset-heavy networks). Even so, the US railroads are able to quickly scale
resources to meet demand levels due to a lack of material time-definite shipment agreements. Therefore, we view pricing to
be the most critical earnings driver for the group outside of volume growth. BNSF achieved rate increases through the last
cycle and it was able to improve operating profitability to near 24% from a low of ~17% in 2003.

Figure 35: BNSF Profitability Intact Despite Recessionary Impact


Burlington Northern Profitability
(EBIT margin)
30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Source: Company reports, Barclays Capital research

MIDAMERICAN ENERGY IS A STEADY PERFORMER

The following analysis of MidAmerican is provided by Daniel Ford, who is Barclays Capital’s Power & Utilities senior equity
analyst.

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Berkshire Hathaway’s utility and energy business is anchored by MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company (MEHC), which
owns the largest utility in Iowa and is strategically located in the middle of several major markets in the Midwest. Its
PacifiCorp operation is a regulated utility based on Portland, Oregon serving 1.7 million customers in six Western states.
MECH accounts for 9% of Berkshire’s revenues and 11% of pre-tax segment earnings.

MEHC’s domestic regulated energy businesses have about 3 million retail customers and a 17,000 mile gas pipeline network
with a capacity of 7 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day. We think MEHC’s businesses, particularly the PacifiCorp and
MidAmerican operations (which comprise nearly 75% of MEHC’s revenues), are above average regulated utilities in above
average jurisdictions, in our view, that should generate a stable earnings stream.

MEHC could generate low single-digit normalized annual earnings growth over the next several years and free cash flow
could improve as the effect of PacifiCorp’s rate cases (a regulatory proceeding to establish customer rates), coupled with a
drop in some expenses and continued investment in the platform should continue to drive growth. Notably, our outlook does
not reflect any material improvement in economic condition or sales, and we would expect a bias to the upside if economic
conditions improve.

David Sokol is MEHC’s Chairman, and Gregory Abel is its president and CEO. Mr. Sokol was CEO of the company from
1993-2008, and is now chairman and CEO of NetJets. Mr Abel has been with MEHC since 1992. He took over the role of
CEO in 2008, and has been president since 1998. Both individuals are well regarded in the utilities industry and thought of as
solid managers.

The principal MEHC businesses are the PacifiCorp and MidAmerican Energy Company (MEC) utilities, which comprise close
to 75% of revenues and 60% of EBIT for the segment.

Figure 36. MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company Revenues & Earnings


MEHC Revenues MEHC Pre-Tax Earnings
Other Real estate Other
Real estate
2% brokerage 1%
brokerage
9% MidAmerican 2% MidAmerican
Energy Co Energy Co
U.K. utilities U.K. utilities
32% 15%
7% 13%
Natural gas
pipelines
9%

Natural gas
PacifiCorp pipelines
41% PacifiCorp
25%
44%

MEHC Total 2009 Revenues: $11.4 Billion


MEHC Total 2009 P/T Earnings: $1.5 Billion

Note: 2009 pre-tax earnings include $125 million of stock-based compensation expense.
Source: Company data, Barclays Capital research.

Generating Capacity & Energy Production Driven By Coal and Natural Gas

Combined, PacifiCorp and MidAmerican Energy Company own about 18,000 MW of electric generating capacity (the MW
value on the nameplate of a plant), of which coal and natural gas account for 75%. Based on the higher capacity factors for
coal assets in general, generation by fuel type (MW value of output for each asset) skews more heavily toward coal.

MEHC’s large coal exposure bears monitoring due to the ongoing possibility of new environmental regulations from the EPA
or Congress. The EPA appears poised to update its regulations on SOx (sulfur dioxide) and NOx (nitrogen oxide) emissions,
and new standards could emerge as soon as 2Q10. Earlier in 2009, Congress appeared ready to pass carbon cap-and-trade
legislation that would regulate carbon dioxide emissions. It remains unknown whether there will be time before the mid-term
elections to deal with climate legislation, but it appears unlikely that there will be Congressional action before 2011.
Regardless of the regulating entity – whether EPA or Congress – MEHC’s regulated businesses should see any increase in
costs be passed along in its fuel costs and borne by its ratepayers. Direct economic impact should be limited, in our view,
although the second-order effects of continuing to increase customer bills during a shaky economic environment raise
legitimate concerns.
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Large Wind Generating Capacity

MECH is a world leader in renewable energy, with approximately 24% of its generating capacity coming from renewable or
noncarbon fuel sources. The company's worldwide renewable power sources are wind, geothermal, hydroelectric and
biomass. By 2030, the DOE hopes to increase wind energy’s contribution to the U.S. electricity supply by 20%.

MEHC’s wind generating capacity is 12% of the company’s total. This factor is notable because this is a high growth industry
and generates significant tax credits. The company is the largest owner of wind-powered electric generation among rate-
regulated utilities and has more than 1,393 megawatts of wind generating facilities in operation, under construction, and under
contract in Iowa. PacifiCorp added approximately 380 megawatts of new wind generation in 2008 and plans to have 2,000
megawatts of renewable resources in its portfolio by 2013.

Figure 37. Generating Capacity & Energy Production, By Fuel Type

Generating Capacity, by Fuel Type Energy Production, By Fuel Type


Nuclear
Geothermal Other
2% Hydroelectric
Hydro 1% 5%
6%
7%

Wind
12% Natural Gas
14%
Coal Coal
54% 75%

Natural Gas
24%

Source: Company filings, Barclays Capital estimates.

MEHC also owns two electricity distribution companies in the United Kingdom that serve 3.8 million customers. Additionally,
MEHC owns a merchant generation subsidiary that owns about 1,000 MW domestically, and internationally in the Philippines.
Its final energy segment is an interstate electric transmission company within which MEHC operates two joint ventures.
MEHC also owns the second largest real estate brokerage firm in the US, known as HomeServices of America. Warren
Buffett expects HomeServices to acquire other brokers and for this business to be much larger a decade from now.

Berkshire acquired an initial majority equity interest (ultimately increased to 89.5%) in MidAmerican Energy in 2000 for $2
billion in cash. In 2006, Berkshire acquired PacifiCorp for $5 billion in cash. In early days, Berkshire avoided investments in
capital intensive businesses, such as utilities. However, as the company generated excess cash it became more willing to
enter capital-intensive businesses as long as those businesses earned decent returns on their incremental investments.
Unlike most of Berkshire’s businesses, MidAmerican has never paid a dividend, but has instead used its earnings to improve
and expand its properties. We view regulated utilities XEL, AEP, DUK, WEC, LNT as MidAmerican’s best comps.

(continued on next page)

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Figure 38. Regulated Utility Valuation Comparisons

REGULATED COMP SHEET - RATED 2-NEUTRAL


Expected
Current Indicated Annual 5 Year 2009E 2010E 2011E
Investment Price Annual Dividend Current Earnings Per Share Est. EPS Price/ Price/ Price/
Opinion Ticker Company 04/08/10 Dividend Growth Yield 2009E 2010E 2011E Growth Earnings Earnings Earnings

1-OW LNT Alliant Energy $33.63 $1.58 5.0% 4.7% $1.96 $2.55 $2.85 4% 17.2x 13.2x 11.8x
1-OW AEP American Electric Power $33.96 $1.56 3.0% 4.6% $2.97 $3.03 $3.20 3% 11.4x 11.2x 10.6x
2-EW DUK Duke Energy Corp $16.24 $0.94 3.0% 5.8% $1.23 $1.25 $1.30 2% 13.2x 13.0x 12.5x
1-OW WEC Wisconsin Energy Corp $50.18 $1.60 10.0% 3.2% $3.20 $3.80 $4.05 8% 15.7x 13.2x 12.4x
2-EW XEL Xcel Energy $21.49 $0.98 3.0% 4.6% $1.50 $1.62 $1.72 6% 14.3x 13.3x 12.5x
Average 14.4x 12.8x 12.0x

UTILITIES (28) 3.8% 4.7% 3.4% 13.9x 13.2x 12.4x

S&P 500 Index 1,186.4 $22.11 1.9% $57.98 $72.93 $84.33 15.6% 20.5x 16.3x 14.1x
Source: Company data, Barclays Capital research.

PacifiCorp

PacifiCorp is a vertically integrated electric utility that owns generation plants, and the system for transmitting and distributing
the electricity. It is headquartered in Portland, Oregon and operates in six states: Utah, Oregon, Wyoming, Washington,
Idaho, and California. PacifiCorp has 1.7 million retail electric customers and sold 65 million Megawatt-hours (MMWh) in
2009 through its retail and wholesale channels. Its retail operations are fully regulated, and its wholesale operations are
subject to some degree of market pricing for sales.

PacifiCorp operates 74 generating plants across the West, including coal, hydroelectric, wind-powered and geothermal
facilities. Combined, PacifiCorp’s generating plants have a net capacity of 10,188 megawatts.

PacifiCorp has more than 61,000 miles of distribution line and approximately 15,800 miles of transmission line – more than
any other single entity in the West. The company’s Energy Gateway initiative, which was announced in 2007, has been
expanded to develop more than 2,000 new miles of high-voltage transmission lines at a cost of more than $6 billion. The plan
includes projects that will address customer load growth, improve system reliability and deliver energy from new wind-
powered and other renewable generating resources.

MidAmerican Energy (MEC)

MEC is likewise a vertically integrated electric and gas utility that owns generation plants and the system for transmitting and
distributing the electricity. It is headquartered in Des Moines, Iowa, and operates its electric business in three states: Iowa (its
largest market), Illinois, and South Dakota, and operates its gas distribution business in those three states as well as
Nebraska. MEC has about 700,000 retail electric and 700,000 retail gas customers, and sold 33 MMWh and 121 thousand
decatherms (Dth) of natural gas in 2009. MEC’s service territory encompasses 10,600 square miles and has a total
population of approximately 2 million people.

In Iowa, which represents about 90% of MEC’s sales, the company has operated under an agreement with the Iowa Utilities
Board under which MEC agrees not to seek a general increase in base rates effective prior to January 1, 2014 as long as its
ROE for any 12-month period stays above 10%. This stable, long-term, risk-reducing relationship that covers the vast
majority of MEC’s business is a positive for the company, in our view.

Production costs at MEC’s coal-fueled generation stations are lower than regional and national averages. The company has
majority ownership in five of the six jointly owned coal-fueled generating stations in Iowa.

Interstate Gas Pipelines

Northern Natural Gas and Kern River are MECH’s two pipeline companies, which carry about 8% of the natural gas
consumed in the U.S. These pipelines represent about 17,000 miles of transmission, 3 underground natural gas storage
facilities, and 2 liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage peaking units. The storage units have a capacity of 73 Bcf (billion cubic

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feet), with over 2 Bcf/day of delivery capacity. The pipelines businesses contribute about 25% of MEHC’s EBIT, and
management continues to invest in this business and grow capacity and throughput.

Northern Natural Gas is based in Omaha and operates a network of interstate natural gas pipelines extending from the
Permian Basin in Texas to the upper Midwest. Northern Natural Gas provides transportation and storage services to
approximately 77 utilities and numerous end-use customers in the upper Midwest. The Kern River pipeline system transports
natural gas for delivery into Utah, Nevada and California.

CE Electric

CE Electric is MEHC’s UK electric distribution holdings company, and is the owner of Northern Electric and Yorkshire
Electricity, which between them serve 3.8 million electric customers in Northeast England. CE Electric is the second largest
electricity distribution business in the U.K. These are distribution businesses, and not vertically integrated utilities similar to
PacifiCorp and MEC in the US. These businesses are regulated in the UK by the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets
(Ofgem). CE Electric contributes about 12% of MEHC’s EBIT.

CalEnergy

CalEnergy is MEHC’s merchant generation platform, consisting of 927 MW of primarily natural gas and hydroelectric plants in
the US, and 128 MW of hydroelectric assets in the Philippines. The majority of the U.S. plants use renewable geothermal
energy to generate electricity.

HomeServices

HomeServices, based in Minneapolis, Minnesota, is the second largest full service real estate brokerage firm in the US, with
over 17,000 agents operating in close to 400 branch offices in 19 states under 21 different brand names. HomeServices is
also the largest brokerage-owned settlement services (mortgage, title, escrow and insurance) provider in the United States.
HomeServices represents about 9-10% of MEHC’s revenues, but only 2-4% of EBIT. Warren Buffett anticipates that this
operation is likely to be much larger a decade from now.

Other Investments

MEHC participates in 2 electric transmission joint ventures: Electric Transmission Texas (ETT) and Electric Transmission
America (ETA). ETT invests in Texas transmission projects, while ETA participates in projects located outside of Texas. All
of its projects are long-dated, with current allowed ROEs on its projects ranging from 9.96% to 12.3%. On balance, we
believe this could become a multi-billion dollar investment platform over the next 10-20 years, but the near-term earnings
impact (i.e. 2-3 years) should be minimal.

MidAmerican Financial Results & Outlook

MEHC recorded revenues of $11.4 billion and $1.5 billion of pre-tax earnings in 2009 including a one-time stock-based
compensation expense of $125 million. Pre-tax earnings in 2009 declined 12% excluding the $1.1 billion Constellation gain in
2008 and stock-based compensation expense in 2009. We show MEHC running about $1 billion of free cash deficits in 2009,
but expect that condition to moderate significantly in 2010 as CAPEX comes down from $3.4 to $2.6 billion, and the impacts of
several rate cases in PacifiCorp’s jurisdictions are felt.

Looking ahead, we think MEHC’s businesses – particularly the PacifiCorp and MidAmerican businesses – are above average
regulated utilities in above average jurisdictions. The long-term deal that MidAmerican has in Iowa is attractive, as long as
MidAmerican is able to restrain costs well enough to earn better than a 10% ROE. That said, because of the Iowa deal, we
don’t expect any outsized earnings growth from MidAmerican (which has 90% of its sales from Iowa), although we believe
investors often prefer stability and certainty over growth in their utility investments.

At PacifiCorp, all of its jurisdictions are average or better, and recent treatment in late 2009 and early 2010 suggests that
regulation around the industry average can be expected going forward. Utah, in particular, which represents about 45% of the
regulated utility rate base, just recently allowed a 10.6% ROE in its case, which we find to be constructive.

All in, we are expecting 2-5% normalized annual pre-tax earnings growth at MEHC over the next 2 years, as the effect of
PacifiCorp’s rate cases, coupled with a drop in some expenses and continued investment in the platform should continue to

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drive growth. We are not modeling any material improvement in economic condition or sales, and would expect a bias to the
upside if economic conditions improve. MEHC’s after-tax ROE could fall to 8% in 2010 and 2011 from 9% in 2009, which is
below the allowed ROE as the company invests in the business. Free cash flow could improve to roughly break-even by
2011, which is better than peers, reflecting a reduction in capital expenditures and modest growth in after-tax earnings.

Figure 39. MidAmerican Energy Holdings Corp Results & Outlook


MEHC Revenues MEHC Pre-Tax Earnings
$16,000 $4,000 Includes $1.1 bn gain
$14,000 $3,500 from investment in
$3,000
Constellation Energy
$12,000
$2,500
$10,000

In $ mn
In $ mn

$2,000
$8,000
$1,500
$6,000 $1,000
$4,000 $500
$2,000 $0

$0 ($500)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E

MidAmerican Energy Co PacifiCorp Natural gas pipelines U.K. utilities Real estate brokerage Other MidAmerican Energy Co PacifiCorp Natural gas pipelines U.K. utilities Real estate brokerage Other

Return On Equity Free Cash Flow


20.0%
$1,000
$563
16.6%
$500
16.0% $4
$0
12.7%
11.4% -$500 ($98)
12.0%
In $ mn

9.0% ($558)
8.4% -$1,000
7.9% ($1,010)
8.0% 7.2% ($1,167)
-$1,500

-$2,000
4.0% ($2,050)
-$2,500

-$3,000
0.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital estimates.

MANUFACTURING, SERVICE, AND RETAIL UNIT—ECONOMICALLY SENSITIVE

Berkshire Hathaway’s Manufacturing, Service and Retail segment generated $62 million of revenue and $2 billion of pre-tax
income in 2009, representing 15% of Berkshire’s segment earnings. This group of businesses appears to be Berkshire
Hathaway’s most economically sensitive operation. In 2009, this segment’s revenues declined 7%, and earnings fell by half
due to the challenging economic environment. The segment’s return on tangible equity (a performance metric tracked by
Warren Buffett) deteriorated from 18% in 2008 to 8% in 2009, and we expect it could remain at depressed levels through
2011. We anticipate revenues and earnings results stabilizing through 2011 assuming a modest economic recovery.

The Manufacturing, Service, and Retail operation was severely impacted by the global recession in 2009 with about one-half
of the segment (based on revenues) seeing sharp declines in operating results. Meanwhile, McLane (wholesale distributor of
groceries and nonfood items) and Marmon (diversified manufacturing and service businesses) held up reasonably well.
Despite contracting sales in 2009, several businesses were able to expand margins and grow profits, including: Benjamin
Moore (paint), Borsheims (jewelry retailing), H.H. Brown (manufacturing and retailing of shoes), CTB (agricultural equipment),
Dairy Queen (ice cream/food restaurant), Nebraska Furniture Mart (furniture retailing), Pampered Chef (direct sales of kitchen
tools), See’s Candies (manufacturing and retailing of candy), and Star Furniture (furniture retailing).

Total segment revenues fell 7% to $62 billion in 2009 (with McLane being the only unit to report increased revenues),
compared to a 12% increase in 2008 due to the Marmon acquisition (revenues increased 2.5% in 2008 excluding Marmon).

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Equity Research
Figure 40. Manufacturing, Service, and Retail Segment Change in Revenue
Revenue Change, Revenue Change,
Reporting Line
Y-o-Y, 2008 Y-o-Y, 2009
Marmon NA -8%
McLane 6% 5%
Shaw -6% -21%
Other Manufacturing -2% -16%
Other Service 8% -22%
Retailing -9% -8%
Total Segment 12% -7%
Note: Excluding Berkshire’s acquisition of Marmon in 2008, total segment growth would have been 2.5% instead of 12%.
Source: Company data, Barclays Capital Research

This segment’s revenues could stabilize in 2010 as the lingering effects of the recession ease. Earnings could trough by mid-
year 2010 after declining by half in 2009 as a result of the recession. Revenues and earnings could recover modestly in 2011
as the business environment improves. Of note, this segment’s pre-tax operating margin fell nearly three hundred basis
points reflecting significant deterioration in the Other Manufacturing, Other Service, and Shaw reporting lines. Meanwhile,
pre-tax income dropped 49% to $2.1 billion in 2009 driven by businesses leveraged to residential and non-residential
construction as well as highly discretionary spending such as NetJets.

The McLane and the Other Manufacturing reporting line (includes a variety of commercial and consumer manufacturing
companies) are the biggest contributors to this segment’s revenues, although McLane’s operating margin is structurally low at
1%. Other Manufacturing and Marmon are the two largest earnings drivers in this segment.

Figure 41. Manufacturing, Service, and Retail Segment Results


Manufacturing, Service, and Retail Revenue Mix Manufacturing, Service, and Retail Earnings Mix

Retailing, 7%
Retailing, 5% Marmon, 8%
Other Service,
11%
Marmon, 32%

Other
Other
Manufacturing,
Manufacturing,
19%
38%

McLane, 51%

Shaw, 7% McLane, 16%


Shaw, 7%
Total FY09 Revenue: $61.7 billion
Total FY09 Pre-Tax Earnings: $2.1 billion

Revenues Purchase of Marmon


Pre-tax Income
in $ billions
$66 $66 $4,500 8.0%
$70
Pre-tax income, in $ millions

$62 $63
$59 $4,000 Impact of 7.0%
$60 $53 $3,500 Recession
6.0%
Operating Margin

$47
$50 $3,000
5.0%
$40 $2,500
4.0%
$30 $2,000
3.0%
$1,500
$20 2.0%
$1,000
$10 $500 1.0%
$0 $0 0.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E2011E
Pre-tax Income Operating Margin

Note: Earnings mix excludes $91 million pre-tax loss in Other Service.
Source: Company data, Barclays Capital Research

The Manufacturing, Service, and Retail segment is composed of six reporting lines including McLane (food distribution),
Marmon (a variety of industrial manufacturing and service companies), Shaw (flooring company), Other Manufacturing
(manufacturers of building products and other commercial products, and consumer products including apparel), Other service
(flight training, jet fractional ownership, media outlets), and Retailing (furniture, jewelry, candy).

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Manufacturing, Service, and Retail Financial Outlook: Modest Recovery Expected

Berkshire’s Manufacturing, Service, and Retail segment is expected to suffer from the lingering effects of the global recession.
This segment’s revenues could recover modestly in the back half of 2010 and improve in full-year 2011, although we suspect
earnings could remain depressed for several years.

• Total revenues for the Manufacturing, Service, and Retail segment fell 7% year-over-year in 2009 to $61.7 billion (vs.
a 2.5% year-over-year increase in 2008 excluding the purchase of Marmon). We anticipate revenues could grow +1%
year-over-year in 2010 (mostly due to growth in 2H10) reflecting McLane’s growth being mostly offset by declines in
the other units. We expect segment revenues could grow 5% in 2011 as the economy recovers.
• This segment’s operating margin fell significantly in 2009 to 3.3% from 6.1% in 2008 largely due to reduced earnings
in the Shaw, Other Manufacturing, and Other Service reporting lines. We forecast margins could remain mostly
stable at 3-4% in both 2010 and 2011. As a point of reference, 1-point change in pre-tax margin equates to
approximately $600 million annually.
• Pre-tax earnings in this segment could improve modestly to $2.1 billion (+4% year-over-year) and $2.3 billion (+6%
year-over-year) in 2010 and 2011, respectively, reflecting our outlook for slight revenue growth and positive operating
leverage. Pre-tax earnings fell 49% in 2009 reflecting a weak economic environment.
• The Manufacturing, Service, and Retail segment could achieve an 8% return on tangible equity in 2010 and 2011,
consistent with 2009, and far below the 18% return on tangible equity achieved in 2008.

Figure 42. Manufacturing, Service, and Retail - Return on Tangible Equity

30% Purchase of
25.1%
25% 22.2% 22.8% Marmon

20% 17.9% Impact of


15%
recession

10% 7.9% 8.1% 7.9%

5%

0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital Research

FINANCE & FINANCIAL PRODUCTS UNIT TIED TO THE HOUSING MARKET

Berkshire’s Finance & Financial Products segment is mainly comprised of Clayton Homes, which is the largest company in the
manufactured housing industry and includes a financing business. This segment accounted for 4% of Berkshire’s revenues
and 6% of pre-tax earnings in 2009. We expect Clayton’s revenues and earnings to stabilize in 2010 and 2011 after declining
in 2009 reflecting housing market weakness.

Barclays Capital’s U.S. Economist Michelle Meyer believes the sharp drop in home prices has ended, but prices are bouncing
around the bottom with little upside expected over the next few years. Manufactured housing typically provides a low entry
price point for consumers into the housing market. However, we anticipate soft demand for manufactured homes due to
increased affordability of homes, and higher mortgage rates for manufactured home buyers versus agency-insured
mortgages. Manufactured/modular homes represented 14% of new homes built in 2008, according to data from the Harvard
Joint Center For Housing Studies.

(continued on next page)

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Equity Research
Figure 43. Finance & Financial Products Revenues & Pre-tax Earnings
Revenues Pre-tax Earnings

$6,000
1,400
$5,000 1,200

$4,000 1,000
In $ Millions

In $ Millions
800
$3,000
600
$2,000 400
$1,000 200
0
$0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E

Manufactured housing & finance Furniture/ transportation equipment leasing Other Manufactured housing & finance Furniture/ transportation equipment leasing Other

Note: Other earnings include earnings associated with Clayton Homes’ installment lending activities. Interest income associated with Clayton Homes’
installment lending activities is included in Clayton revenues with a corresponding charge reflected in Clayton Homes’s earnings.
Source: Company data, Barclays Capital estimates.

Clayton Homes—A Leader In Manufactured Housing

Clayton Homes, headquartered near Knoxville, Tennessee, is the largest company in the manufactured home industry,
delivering 27,499 units in 2008, which represents about 34% of the manufactured housing industry total. Clayton is a
vertically integrated manufactured housing company. As of 2009, Clayton operates 36 manufacturing plants in 12 states.
Clayton’s homes are sold in 48 states through a network of 1,503 retailers, including 385 company-owned sales centers.
Clayton is also developing 24 housing subdivisions in eight states. Berkshire acquired Clayton in 2003 for $1.7 bn in cash.

Clayton’s results have been hurt by housing market turmoil along with the rest of the industry. Manufactured housing demand
has been declining for years, with output falling to 60,000 units in 2009 from 382,000 in 1999, reflecting in part reduced new
home construction as well as higher mortgage rates for manufactured home buyers versus agency-insured mortgages for site-
built homes. While the cost of a manufactured home is usually less than site-built homes, mortgage rates for a manufactured
home are currently higher versus agency-insured mortgages because very few manufactured homes qualify for agency-
insured mortgages. For example, the average rate for an agency-insured mortgage is significantly below the roughly 9% for a
mortgage for a manufactured home.

On a positive note, Clayton has not experienced dramatic increases in delinquencies and foreclosures during the housing
crisis due to its disciplined lending practices, even though its customers tend to have credit scores below nationwide
averages. As a result, we do not expect meaningful loan losses in this business. For example, the latest data available show
delinquency rates at Clayton were 3.6% in 2008 (versus 7% for the residential housing industry), up from 2.9% in 2006 and
2.4% in 2004. Clayton’s foreclosure rate in 2008 was 3.0% (in line with the residential housing industry) compared to 3.8% in
2006 and 5.3% in 2004.

Clayton Homes manufactures and sells both manufactured homes and modular homes. Manufactured homes (formerly
known as mobile homes) are built in a factory and transported to the building site. Modular homes are typically built in
sections at a factory and assembled at the site by local contractors. Both manufactured and modular homes are less
expensive to purchase than site-built homes (also know as stick-built houses). The advantages of manufactured and modular
homes include low construction costs, fast building times (manufactured homes can be constructed in 1-2 days vs 3-6 months
for site-built homes), and they are built under controlled conditions in a factory.

Finance & Financial Products Segment Earnings Likely To Remain Depressed

Reduced demand for manufactured homes and lower rental income at the furniture and transportation equipment leasing
business could depress Finance & Financial Product segment’s revenues and earnings through 2010. A modest
improvement in results is expected in 2011 as the housing market and economy recover.

• The Finance & Financial Products segment’s revenues fell 7% in 2009 to $4.6 bn due to a decline in home unit sales
at Clayton and lower rental income at the furniture and transportation equipment leasing business. We expect
revenues to decline 1% in 2010 to $4.6 bn, and rise 2% in 2011 to $4.7 bn as both the housing market and the
economy recover.
• Pre-tax earnings for the total segment fell 1% in 2009 to $781 mn due to a $79 mn increase in loan loss provisions at
Clayton, partially offset by cost reduction efforts. We expect pre-tax earnings to decline 1% in 2010 to $774 mn and
rise 2% in 2011 to $795 mn driven by a modest increase in Clayton home sales as the housing market bottoms.
• The pre-tax margin for the total segment rose to 17.0% in 2009 from 15.9% due to reduced expenses and higher net
investment income. We expect the pre-tax margin be stable at 17.0% in 2010 and 2011.

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Equity Research

BERKSHIRE’S BALANCE SHEET & LIQUIDITY REMAIN STRONG

Berkshire Hathaway’s strong balance sheet and liquidity are among its most enduring competitive advantages, we believe,
even though the company is no longer rated AAA by the rating agencies. These factors are important for Berkshire’s
reinsurance customers, as well as partners for mergers or investments. During the financial crisis, Berkshire was able to
quickly deploy $20 bn of capital in deals with attractive financial terms for Berkshire including convertible preferred stock
investments with attached warrants in Goldman Sachs, GE, and Swiss Re. In addition, Berkshire’s reinsurance customers at
GenRe and Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group demand high financial security and the ability to pay multi-billion dollar
claims quickly. Berkshire has not repurchased its stock or paid a shareholder dividend historically, and we do not expect this
strategy to change. Instead, Berkshire deploys excess capital into investments or acquisitions.

The rating agencies stripped Berkshire Hathaway of its coveted AAA ratings owing to the impact of the financial crisis and
weak economic conditions on Berkshire’s investments and earnings (particularly from its non-insurance businesses). The
most recent downgrade was in response to Berkshire’s acquisition of BNSF in early 2010, based on the rating agencies’ view
of Berkshire’s lowered excess capital and liquidity positions. Even so, Berkshire’s cost on $8 bn of debt it issued to partially
finance the BNSF deal was likely only several bps higher versus previous spreads when Berkshire was rated AAA. We note
that Berkshire’s 5-year CDS is currently at 104 basis points, which is a lower level than when it was rated AAA during the
global financial crisis. Also, we doubt Berkshire intends to regain the AAA due to the significant additional capital required.

In terms of sensitivity to changes in interest rates and equity markets as of YE09, a 100 bps increase in interest rates would
have an estimated impact of $1.9 billion on Berkshire’s investment valuations and shareholders’ equity. A 5% change in
equity in the value of Berkshire’s equity securities would potentially have a $3 bn impact.

Figure 44. Berkshire Hathaway 5-Year CDS Spread

500

400

300

200

100

0 NU G G E T TA G : u s e r N a m e = n u &
l p o
l t N a m e = n u l

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Barclays Capital Live

Despite the rating agency downgrades, we believe Berkshire remains among the best-capitalized and most liquid insurers
globally, with U.S. and European customers focusing mostly on the ratings from A.M. Best and S&P, respectively. All of
Berkshire’s major insurance subsidiaries are rated AA+ by S&P and nearly all are rated A++ by A.M. Best.

As of year-end 2009, Berkshire Hathaway has $136 billion in shareholders’ equity, and $146 billion in cash and investments,
of which $8 billion has been earmarked for the BNSF acquisition. Separately, the aggregate statutory surplus (important for
rating agency needs) for Berkshire’s U.S. P&C insurance operations is approximately $64 bn as of YE09 and is the largest in
the U.S.

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Equity Research
Figure 45. Berkshire Hathaway’s Ratings from the Rating Agencies
Standard & Moody’s Fitch A.M. Best
Poor’s
Long-term issuer AA+ (stable) Aa2 (stable) AA- (stable) Aa+ (negative)
Senior unsecured AA+ (stable) Aa2 (stable) A+ (stable) --
Insurer financial AA+ (stable) Aa1 (stable) AA+ (stable) A++ (under review,
strength negative
implications)
Short-term / A-1+ P-1 (stable) F1 --
Commercial paper

Source: S&P, Moody’s, Fitch, A.M. Best, Barclays Capital research.

Capitalization and Financial Leverage Both Rising

Berkshire Hathaway balance sheet risk increased as a result of the BNSF acquisition, although it appears manageable barring
another shock to the financial system. As of year-end 2009, Berkshire’s capital base not adjusted for the BNSF acquisition
stood at $169 billion. Importantly, 78% of capitalization is from shareholders’ equity, of which the vast majority is retained
earnings. As of YE09, Berkshire’s tangible equity is $97 billion excluding $34 billion goodwill generated from acquisitions, up
from $75 billion at year-end 2008.

Figure 46. Berkshire Hathaway Capital Structure


Berkshire Total Capital BNI Acquisition Berkshire Tangible Capital

$200 $200

$150 $150
in $ bil
in $ bil

$100 $100

$50 $50

$0 $0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
Berkshire Total Debt Berkshire Total Equity Berkshire Total Debt Berkshire Tangible Equity

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital Research

Berkshire’s financial leverage increased over the past several years, with adjusted debt-to-total capital3 rising from 6% in 2005
to 18% in 2006, reflecting the acquisition of MidAmerican. Adjusted debt-to-total capital declined to 16% in 2009 driven by a
recovery in investment marks. We anticipate financial leverage could rise to 22% in 2010 driven by the additional $18 bn of
debt related to the BNSF acquisition. As of year-end 2009, total debt (excluding $12 bn from Berkshire Hathaway Finance
Corp. used for operating leverage) was $26 billion, of which about $20 billion is from MidAmerican. Neither the MidAmerican
debt nor the $10 billion of existing BNSF debt is guaranteed by Berkshire.

Berkshire Hathaway completed the acquisition of the remaining 77.4% of BNSF it did not already own in February 2010,
which is its largest deal to date. Berkshire paid $26 billion and assumed $10 billion of existing BNSF debt. Berkshire funded
this $26 billion deal with $10.1 billion in newly issued stock and $15.9 billion in cash – the cash portion was funded with $8
billion of externally raised debt raised at low rates, and $8 billion of existing cash. As a result of the BNSF acquisition,
Berkshire’s goodwill is expected to increase $16.5 bn.

(continued on next page)

3
Adjusted debt-to-total capital includes all debt, except debt issued for Berkshire Hathaway Finance Corporation (BHFC). BHFC’s debt, which is guaranteed by Berkshire
Hathaway Inc., is used as operating leverage for Clayton Homes. We include the debt of both MidAmerican and BNSF in our adjusted debt-to-total capital calculation,
although their debt is not guaranteed by Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

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Equity Research
Figure 47. Berkshire Hathaway Adjusted Debt-to-Capital
$18 billion of debt related to
25% BNSF acquisition 22%
21%
19%
20% 18% 17% 16%
15%

10%
6%
5%

0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital Research

Berkshire generates strong liquidity from its operations, and maintains significant cash balances of $30.6 billion as of year-end
2009, down from $25.5 billion a year earlier. Including the use of existing cash for the BNSF acquisition, Berkshire’s cash is
estimated to be down to about $22.6 billion currently, which would be the lowest level in many years and approaches
Berkshire’s internal minimum requirement of $20 billion. Notably, Moody’s said in February 2010 that a decline in Berkshire’s
cash approaching $10 bn or less could trigger another downgrade.

Figure 48. Berkshire Cash and Cash Equivalents


Marmon Acquisition and investments in Goldman
and others
$50 $45 $44 $44 BNSF Acquisition

$40
$31
$30 $26
in $ bil

$23
$20

$10

$0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1Q10E

Note: Cash and Cash Equivalents for 2005 is presented proforma for the MidAmerican acquisition
Source: Company data, Barclays Capital research.

Strong Free Cash Flow

Berkshire’s free cash flow was robust at $11 billion in 2009, and we expect it to ease to approximately the $8 billion-range in
both 2010 and 2011 driven by less cash flow from operations and increased capital expenditures. Berkshire intends to deploy
a meaningful portion of future cash flow into capital intensive businesses, including MidAmerican and BNSF. Capital
expenditures at MidAmerican are expected by Berkshire to be $2.6 bn in 2010, down from $3.4 bn in 2009. BNSF’s capital
expenditures are expected by the company to be $2.4 bn in 2010.

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Equity Research
Figure 49. Berkshire Hathaway Free Cash Flow
$12 $10.9

$10
$ 8.5
$7.9
$8 $7 .3 $7 .2
i n $ bil

$5.6
$6 $5.1

$4

$2

$0
2 005 200 6 2 007 20 08 2009 201 0E 2 011E

Note: Free cash flow is net cash flow from operations, less purchases of property, plant, and equipment.
Source: Company data, Barclays Capital research.

Clayton’s Lending Portfolio Appears Stable

Clayton Homes, Berkshire’s manufactured housing operation, offers home mortgage originations. This operation risks losses
from non-performing loans, although Clayton’s conservative lending practices should help keep these losses contained. For
example, the average down payment for Clayton’s borrowers above the industry average and loans are all fixed rate and fixed
term. The ability for Clayton to fund these loans, however, depends on access to the capital markets. As of early 2010,
Clayton had about $11.5 billion of notes issued by BHFC for the funding of Clayton’s loans. Loan loss provisions were $380
million in 2009 up from $305 million in 2008, and loan charge-offs were $335 million in 2009 up from $215 million in 2008.
Clayton’s allowance for loan loss reserves was $348 million 2009, up from $298 million in 2008.

Insurance Reserves Showing No Problems Currently

Berkshire Hathaway’s property-casualty loss reserves have generated favorable development over the past few years
although the benefit is slowing, consistent with industry trends. The company’s incurred loss development trends appear
benign currently, and we anticipate this trend should continue over the next few years. Although no problems appear to be on
the horizon, we closely monitor the reserve development trends of Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group (BHRG) and
GenRe. This is because these operations contain the largest concentration of the company’s long-tail liability exposures and
have the potential to generate the most volatility in reserving over the course of a cycle.

Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group (BHRG) and GenRe account for the majority of net unpaid loss reserves, which
generate float. Although GenRe has not suffered reserving problems for more than five years, this risk still exists because tort
cost and general economic inflation could increase from currently low levels.

Figure 50. Net Insurance Unpaid Loss Reserves

Berkshire
Hathaway
GEICO, 16%
Primary
Group, 9%

General Re,
BHRG, 44%
31%

Total Net Unpaid Losses $52 billion at YE09

Note: Unpaid losses are net of reinsurance recoverable and deferred charges on reinsurance assumed and before foreign currency translation effects.
Source: Company data, Barclays Capital Research

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Equity Research

Berkshire’s P&C operations have released reserves over the past several years, which boosted pre-tax earnings by $905
million in 2009, $1.1 billion in 2008, and $1.5 billion in 2007. We expect this benefit to slow in 2010 and 2011 because pricing
has eroded and loss cost inflation could increase.

Figure 51. Total P&C Prior Year Loss Reserve Development


$0 0%

($200)
-1%
($225)
($400) ($357)

Combined Ratio Points


-2%
($600)
($612)
in $ mil

($800) -3%
($775)
($1,000)
($905) -4%
($1,200) ($1,140)
-5%
($1,400)

($1,600) ($1,478) -6%


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E

Prior Year Development Prior Year Development Combined Ratio Impact

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital Research

DERIVATIVES EXPOSURE REQUIRES MONITORING

Berkshire Hathaway attracted unwanted attention in 2008 and early 2009 due to its growing derivatives exposure. The
company increased its exposure to fluctuating investment valuations by selling long-dated put options on equity indexes and
high yield indexes as well as credit default protection for states/municipalities and individual corporations with a total notional
value of $63 bn. On a positive note, these contracts provided Berkshire with $6 bn of float for investment, the contracts
cannot be settled prior to expiration, and the marks reversed to positive territory after 1Q09.

Economic risk from Berkshire’s derivatives appears manageable, in our view. This is because the equity put options are
European style (only exercisable just prior to expiration), and require payment by Berkshire in about 11.5 years if the index
price is lower than the level when the contract was written. Notably, in 2009 Berkshire reduced the strike prices and
shortened the maturities of about 10% of its equity put options. That being said, Berkshire’s derivative contracts enhance its
exposure to equity markets as well as to the debt service capabilities of states and municipalities in a challenging fiscal
environment.

Berkshire’s derivatives contracts produce meaningful accounting swings in net income due to marking these securities to
market each quarter. As a point of reference, Berkshire estimates a 30% increase in equity markets could result in about a $2
bn accounting gain in its equity put options, and a 30% decrease could result in about a $3 bn accounting loss (1.5% of
shareholder’s equity).

Figure 52. Notional Value of Berkshire Hathaway Derivative Contracts, YE09


Individual
corporate, $3.6
bn

Credit default
obligations-
States/ municipali Equity index put
ties, $16.0 bn options, $38.0 bn

Credit default
obligations- High
yield indexes,
$5.5 bn
Total Notional Value=$63.1 Bn

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital research.

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Equity Research

Berkshire’s Derivatives Risk Appears Manageable

Berkshire’s derivatives exposure present low liquidity risk, in our view, because only a small number of Berkshire’s contracts
require posting of collateral. This means Berkshire is unlikely to suffer a liquidity squeeze even if contracts are substantially
out of the money prior to expiration. Berkshire posted collateral of roughly $35 million related to its equity put options as of
year end 2009. Berkshire’s peak collateral requirement was $1.7 bn in early 2009 during the heart of the financial crisis.

Berkshire’s derivative exposures appear to present reasonable economic risk over the life of the contract, in our view. Two-
thirds of Berkshire’s derivatives are equity puts written on the S&P 500 and 3 foreign equity indices, and all of the contracts
are European-style options with an average life of about 11.5 years.

We view the probability of economic losses on these contracts occurring as low, because it would mean equity market
indexes decline over 11.5 years compared to the index values at the inception of the contract.

In a pessimistic scenario, a 25% decline in equity markets at expiration (11.5 years on average) could cause Berkshire a $9.5
bn loss (25% of $38 bn notional value). Importantly, this modeled potential loss should be viewed in light of the float
generated by $4.9 bn in upfront premiums.

Figure 53. Potential Payout Of Berkshire’s Equity Puts


$10
$4.9 bn
Potential Payout, in $ bn

$0 premium

($10)

($20)

($30)

($40)
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
% chg equities over 15-20 yrs

Note: Does not include expected benefit of investment income over 11.5 years from about $4.9 bn in premium.
Source: Barclays Capital estimates.

Berkshire is exposed to economic risk from derivative contracts on credit losses from states/municipalities, high yield indices,
and individual corporate bonds. The total notional value of these contracts is $25 bn. Warren Buffett “feels good” about its
exposure to states/municipalities, which represents $16 bn of notional exposure.

Berkshire’s high yield credit derivatives ($5.5 bn of notional exposure) could experience losses due to significant bankruptcy
activity in 2008. The potential maximum loss on these contracts is $5.5 billion (fair value for Berkshire at 3Q09 is a loss of
$781 mn), although potential losses should be considered in light of premiums received at inception of $3.4 bn as of year end
2008 and investment income generated on these premiums over the 5 year life of the contract.

Importantly, Warren Buffett expects its derivatives contracts in aggregate to deliver a profit over their lifetime, even excluding
investment income earned on the $6 billion of float.

Furthermore, Berkshire’s derivatives have low counterparty risk, in our view, because the company requires cash payments at
initiation of the derivatives contracts. This means Berkshire always holds the money and assumes no meaningful
counterparty risk. These payments to Berkshire amounted to $6 bn at year end 2009, and represents Berkshire’s derivatives
float.

Derivative Accounting Swings Can Be Meaningful

We view Berkshire’s economic risk from derivatives as manageable. However, accounting swings in Berkshire’s income
statement from derivatives can be meaningful because the company is required to mark-to-market its derivatives exposure.
This GAAP accounting treatment led Berkshire to recognize a $6.8 bn of loss in 2008 when equity and credit markets

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Equity Research
plunged. In 2009, Berkshire recognized an accounting gain of $3.6 bn due to a recovery in financial markets. A sensitivity
analysis of Berkshire’s equity puts and potential impact to net income and shareholder’s equity from a 30% increase or
decrease in equity markets is shown below. Berkshire uses Black-Scholes to mark its equity put portfolio, although we cannot
accurately replicate this sensitivity analysis because the strike prices are not disclosed.

Figure 54. Equity Put Sensitivity Analysis

Est. Fair Value Equity Put Options (Balance Sheet liability) Est. Income Stmt Accounting Gain/ Loss
$3,000
$2,018
$0 $2,000
($2,000) $1,000

In $ millions
In $ millions

($4,000) $0
($6,000) ($1,000)
($5,291)
($8,000) ($2,000)
($7,309)
($10,000) ($3,000)
($10,428) ($4,000) ($3,119)
($12,000)
Fair Value, 3Q09 Optimistic Scenario: 30% Pessimistic Secnario: 30% Optimistic Scenario: 30% increase equities Pessimistic Secnario: 30% decrease
increase equities decrease equities equities

Est. Accounting Gain/ Loss As A Pct Of Shareholder's Equity


Under Stressed Scenarios
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-1.5%
-2.0%
Optimistic Scenario: 30% increase equities Pessimistic Secnario: 30% decrease equities

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital research.

Berkshire’s Derivatives Contracts Background

Berkshire Hathaway is party to approximately 250 derivative contracts with a total notional value (the nominal exposure to a
derivative’s underlying securities) of $63 billion at YE09 and an average contract life of 11.5 years (details provided in Figure
55). These contracts generate substantial float for Berkshire of $6.3 billion as of year end 2009 since Berkshire collects
premiums at the inception of the contract. Similar to insurance float, if Berkshire breaks even on the underlying contract, it
has enjoyed the use of free money for years (although the company expects to perform better than breakeven). Warren
Buffett considers himself the chief risk officer at Berkshire and is in charge of monitoring derivatives positions.

(continued on next page)

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Equity Research
Figure 55. Berkshire Hathaway’s Derivative Exposures, As of YE09
Derivative Notional Fair Weighted Maturity Premium Reference Explanation
Value, YE Value, YE Average as of YE Index
‘09, ‘09, Duration ‘08
in $ in $
millions millions
Equity Put $37,990 $(7,309) 11.5 yrs 2018- $4.9 bn S&P 500, FTSE Berkshire pays its counterparty at maturity if the
Portfolio 2028 upfront 100 in the U.K., reference index is below what it was at
Euro Stoxx 50, inception. Options are European-style and
Nikkei 225 in neither party can settle early. In 2009,
Japan Berkshire shortened the maturities and reduced
the strike prices on about 10% of its equity put
contracts.
Credit Default $16,042 $(853) 11 yrs 2019- NA Over 500 states Berkshire pays when credit losses occur at
Obligation, state/ 2054 & municipalities covered states and municipalities. Warren
municipalities Buffett said he “feels good” about these
exposures. No counterparty risk exists.
Credit Default $5,533 $(781) 2 yrs 2010- $3.4 bn Contracts Berkshire pays when credit losses occur at
Obligation, high 2013 upfront typically cover companies that are included in various high-
yield indices 100 high yield yield indices. Warren Buffett said the possibility
issuers of a loss on these contracts is high due to the
recession and significant bankruptcy activity.
No counterparty risk exists.
Credit Default $3,565 $81 5 yrs 2013 $93 mn 42 individual Credit insurance covering individual corporate
Swaps on received corporations issuers. Berkshire receives premium annually,
individual annually therefore, these are the only derivative
companies contracts written by Berkshire with counterparty
risk- that is, risk the counterparty will not pay
the quarterly premium over the 5 year life of the
contract. Notably, Berkshire is unlikely to
expand this business because most buyers now
insist the seller post collateral, which Berkshire
will not agree to.
Source: Company data, Barclays Capital research.

VALUATION – BERKSHIRE SHARES APPEAR FULLY VALUED

Estimating the fair value of Berkshire Hathaway’s shares is a challenging exercise because the company is a conglomerate of
insurance, railroads, utilities, manufacturing, finance, service, and homebuilding businesses, meaning it has no directly
comparable peers. Instead, we valued the stock using three approaches: Price-to-book (our favored metric because book
value is a conservative starting point in our view), sum-of-the-parts, and intrinsic value. We are using a price target of $88 per
Class B share ($132,000 per Class A share) based on a multiple of 1.30x (below the average historical multiple of 1.59x since
2000) our YE11 book value estimate of $68 per Class B share ($101,500 per A share). We also estimate Berkshire’s fair
value using sum-of-the-parts and intrinsic value methods, which generate an outlook of approximately $87 per Class B share
($130,000 per Class A share) and $73 per Class B share ($110,000 per Class A share), respectively. As a point of
reference, Class B shares are valued at 1/1,500th of Class A shares.

(continued on next page)

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Equity Research

Figure 56. Berkshire Hathaway Valuation Methods


Valuation Price-to-stated book Sum-of-the-parts Intrinsic value
Method
Approximate estimated $88 per Class B share $87 per Class B share $73 per Class B share
fair value per share $132,000 per Class A share $130,000 per Class A share $110,000 per Class A share

Strengths of this method • Easy to calculate. • Applies separate valuation for each • Warren Buffett uses a modified
• Historical basis for valuation. business. version.
• Separately values investments and
operating units.
Drawbacks of this • Book value is believed to be • Valuation based on comprehensive • Many estimated inputs, including
method lower than intrinsic value. income (incl. est. investment gains). WACC and terminal value of future
• BNSF is newly acquired, so • Determining the right valuation for earnings.
historical valuation is not highly each segment can be a challenge.
relevant.

Source: Barclays Capital research.

Price-To-Book Valuation

We tend to give our price-to-book valuation method the most emphasis because book value per share is a critical valuation
metric for the company, although it likely understates the economic value of many acquired businesses. Also, the
comparability of Berkshire’s historical price/book valuation to current levels is somewhat limited since historical valuation data
does not include the recently completed acquisition of BNSF.

We apply a 1.30 price-to-book multiple on our year-end 2011 book value per Class B share estimate of $68 ($101,500 per
Class A share) to develop our price target of $88 per Class B share ($132,000 per Class A share). Berkshire currently trades
at 1.41x stated YE09 book value per Class B share of $56. Since 2000, the stock has traded at an average of 1.59x, a high of
1.99x, a low of 1.11x, and one standard deviation from the mean equal to 0.19x.

Berkshire currently trades at 1.91x tangible YE09 book value per Class B share of $42 ($62,594 per Class A share). Since
2000, the price-to-tangible book multiple average is 2.26x, with a high of 3.17x, a low of 1.58x, and one standard deviation
from the mean equal to 0.36x. Our $88 price target per Class B share implies a price-to-tangible book multiple of 1.86x on our
year-end 2011 tangible book value per Class B share estimate of $47.

We believe it is reasonable to expect that in 12-18 months BRK shares could be trading at a lower stated price-to-book
valuation than currently because we anticipate weakness in the Insurance segment, a modest improvement in Non-Insurance
earnings except BNSF, slowing book value per share growth, and declining ROE. In addition, Berkshire’s current valuation
likely already takes into account the benefit of improving economic conditions.

Figure 57. Berkshire Hathaway Price-To-Book & Price-to-Tangible Book


2.1 Trailing Price-to- Stated Book Multiple 3.3
Trailing Price-to- Tangible Book Multiple
2.0 3.1
1.9 2.9
1.8
2.7
1.7
2.5
1.6
2.3
1.5
1.4 2.1

1.3 1.9

1.2 1.7
1.1 1.5
Dec-99

Dec-00

Dec-01

Dec-02

Dec-03

Dec-04

Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-99

Dec-00

Dec-01

Dec-02

Dec-03

Dec-04

Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Source: FactSet, Barclays Capital research.

Sum-Of-The-Parts- $87 Per Class B Share

Our sum-of-the-parts valuation analysis is a useful check for our price-to-book methodology, and estimates Berkshire’s fair
value to be approximately $87 per Class B share ($130,000 per Class A share). We assume an ongoing annualized
unrealized equities return of 8%. As a point of reference, each 2-percentage point change in annual equity returns could
46
Equity Research
adjust our estimate of Berkshire’s book value per share by roughly $0.30 per Class B share ($450 per Class A share, 0.5% of
book value per share).

Step 1: Estimate the value of the Insurance business

Our starting point for valuing the Insurance operation is Berkshire Hathaway’s $65 billion of U.S. P&C statutory capital as of
YE09. We are using statutory capital, which we normally view as a conservative measure of tangible equity, because GAAP
equity for the entire Insurance business is not readily available and it includes substantial goodwill.

We apply a multiple of 1.3x to current statutory capital to develop a rough estimate of about $85 bn of the value of the
Insurance business. The multiple we are using is above the P&C sector average of 0.90x reflecting the strong franchise value
of GEICO, GenRe, and National Indemnity. GEICO’s closest peer is probably PGR, which trades at 2.1 times book value,
although PGR has much higher ROEs than GEICO because of its elevated operating and financial leverage. Most of the
publicly-traded reinsurers trade at or below 1x book value, although we view National Indemnity as having few peers.

Figure 58. Berkshire’s Insurance Unit Valuation (in $bn)


YE09 Statutory Estim ated Est.
Capital Valuation Value
N ationalIndem nity Co. $38 1.25 $48
C olum bia Insurance Co. 8 1.25 11
G eneralRe 10 1.20 12
G EICO 8 1.75 15
Total 65 1.31 85

M ultiple applied 1.31 x

Insurance valuation 85
Source: SNL, Barclays Capital research.

Step 2: Estimate the value of the Non-Insurance businesses:

The contributions from the Non-Insurance businesses include BNSF, the Manufacturing, Service & Retail segment,
MidAmerican, the Finance and Financial Products unit, and unrealized investment gains. In total, we value these operations
at about $129 bn based on an implied P/E of 14x-15x estimated 2011 earnings.

Figure 59. Berkshire’s Non-Insurance Operations Valuation (In $bn)


Pre-tax earnings Pct.2011E A fter-tax
2011E Earnings P/E valuation,(a)
BN SF 3.8 28% 15.0 37
M anufacturing, service & retail 2.3 17% 15.0 22
M idA m erican 1.8 13% 12.0 14
Finance and financialproducts 0.8 6% 15.0 8
Total 8.6 81
U nrealized appreciation ofinvestm ents 5.0 37% 15.0 49
G rand total 13.6 100% 14.6 129
(a) Assumes 34% effective tax rate.
Source: Barclays Capital research.

Our weighted average estimated fair value 2011 P/E of 14x-15x for the Non-Insurance businesses and unrealized
investments operations is based on applying a:
• P/E of 15x for BNSF, which was acquired by Berkshire Hathaway for 16x 2010 est. EPS. Peer railroad operator
stocks are UNP, CSX, and NSC, which are currently trading at 14x-15x 2011 estimated EPS, according to Gary
Chase, Barclays Capital’s senior airfreight & ground transportation equity research analyst.
• 15x for Manufacturing, service, and retail, as well as Finance and Financial Products based on a expected earnings
recovery over the next several years.
• 12x for MidAmerican. The best comparable stocks are XEL, EAP, DUK, WEC, and LNT (regulated utilities currently
trade at an average of 12x 2011 estimated EPS) according to Daniel Ford, Barclays Capital’s senior Utilities equity
research analyst.
• 15x for unrealized investment gains, which reflects the value added by Warren Buffett’s management. The most
relevant asset manager comparables are BEN (currently trading at 16x estimated 2011 EPS), BLK (16x), TROW

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(19x), and LM (20x), according to Barclays Capital’s Senior Broker and Asset Manager equity research analyst Roger
Freeman.

Step 3: Add the valuations of the Insurance and Non-Insurance businesses.

We add the estimated value of the Insurance business of $85 bn to the value of the Non-Insurance businesses (including
unrealized investment gains) of $129 billion to develop our sum-of- the-parts valuation for Berkshire Hathaway of $214 billion,
or about $87 per Class B share ($130,000 per Class A share).

Intrinsic Value- $73 Per Class B Share

The intrinsic value method estimates Berkshire’s fair value to be approximately $73 per Class B share ($110,000 per Class A
share). This method is the most complex of the three since we need to make various assumptions including the company’s
long-term earnings power, and its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Similar to our other valuation estimates, the
intrinsic value method assumes Berkshire does not acquire any companies in the future that would add to earnings power and
is likely an overly conservative stance.

Our method of estimating Berkshire’s intrinsic value differs slightly from Warren Buffett’s approach—Mr. Buffett’s methodology
is to sum the 1) per-share value of cash and investments of the insurance business, and 2) the present value of pre-tax future
earnings from businesses other than insurance and investments.

We take a slightly different, and perhaps more conservative, approach by taking the sum of 1) the value of cash and
investments of the insurance business, and 2) the present value of expected after-tax earnings of the non-insurance
businesses to value the company. We then take the additional step of subtracting the value of all Berkshire’s debt to estimate
the value of the equity. Our approach adjusts for the impact of taxes as well as focusing on the value of the company from an
equity holder’s perspective.

Our major assumptions and results of our intrinsic value analysis:


• Value of investments and cash of the insurance and other business: $138 bn based on $146 bn (actual amount as of
4Q09), less $8bn of internal cash for the BNSF acquisition.
• Present value of future non-insurance after-tax income: estimated at $99 bn, based on our assumptions of earnings
growth of 2.5% from 2013-2020 and a perpetual earnings growth rate of 1.5%. Our estimates are for WACC of 7.2%
and a discounted terminal value multiple of 18 times.
• Adding these two components provides an estimate of intrinsic value of $237 billion. We then subtract the value of
all debt (including assumed debt from BNSF and operating debt in the finance operations) of $56 billion to estimate
an intrinsic value of the equity of $181 billion, or approximately $73 per Class B share ($110,000 per Class A share).

Following is our scenario analysis summary for our intrinsic value estimates per Class B share using different assumptions for
Berkshire’s weighted average cost of capital, and the company’s perpetual growth rate.

Figure 60. Intrinsic Value Scenario Analysis Summary –Per Class B share
Valuation Scenario Analysis (Per Class B Share)

W td.avg.costofcapital
6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
-2% $70 $65 $61 $59 $56
Perpetual -1% $73 $67 $63 $59 $57
G row th 0% $76 $69 $65 $61 $58
Rate (g) 1% $81 $73 $67 $63 $59
2% $89 $77 $70 $65 $61
Source: Barclays Capital research.

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Equity Research
Figure 61. Berkshire Hathaway Intrinsic Value Analysis
(In $m illions,exceptper share) W eighted avg.costofcapital(W ACC)
M ktvalue ofequity 201,896 78%
Debt 55,909 22%
Valuation Sum m ary Total 257,805 100%
(In $m n exceptper share)
Value ofinvestm ents & cash (a) $137,982 Beta 0.89
PV ofnon-insurance A/T incom e 99,179 10 Yr US Treasury yield 3.9%
Com pany value 237,161 Risk prem ium 5.0%
Less:debt(b) (55,909) M arketreturn 8.9%
Value ofshareholders'equity 181,252 Costofequity 8.4%
Class A and equivalentshares out.(c) 1.65
Value ofequity per Class A equiv.share $109,850 Costofdebt,pre-tax 4.7%
Value ofequity per Class B equiv.share $73 1-Tax rate 0.66
Costofdebt,after-tax 3.1%

W ACC 7.2%

Perpetualgrow th rate (g) 1.5%

Term inal
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Value
N on-Insurance incom e
Burlington N orthern Santa Fe 2,949 3,811 4,002 4,102 4,204 4,309 4,417 4,527 4,641 4,757 4,876 4,997
Utilities & Energy (M idAm erican) 1,746 1,785 1,874 1,921 1,969 2,018 2,069 2,121 2,174 2,228 2,284 2,341
M anufacturing,Service & Retail 2,138 2,260 2,373 2,432 2,493 2,555 2,619 2,685 2,752 2,821 2,891 2,964
Finance & FinancialProducts 773 783 822 843 864 885 907 930 953 977 1,002 1,027
Less:M inority interest (400) (400) (420) (431) (441) (452) (464) (475) (487) (499) (512) (525)
TotalSegm entpre-tax incom e 7,206 8,239 8,651 8,867 9,089 9,316 9,549 9,788 10,032 10,283 10,540 10,804
Effective tax rate 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34%
TotalSegm entafter-tax incom e 4,756 5,438 5,710 5,852 5,999 6,149 6,302 6,460 6,621 6,787 6,957 7,131
Discountperiod 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
PV after-tax incom e + term inalvalue 4,436 4,731 4,633 4,430 4,235 4,049 3,871 3,701 3,538 3,383 3,234 54,940

W A CC 7.2% Term inalm ult. 17.8


(1+g)/(W ACC-g)
(a) As of YE09, adjusted for $8bn earmarked for BNSF acquisition.
(b) Includes $18 bn of debt related to BNSF acquisition.
(c) Includes shares issued for BNSF acquisition.
Source: Barclays Capital research.

Berkshire Hathaway Share Price Performance

Berkshire Hathaway shares significantly outperformed the S&P 500 Index including dividends year-to-date in 2010, as well as
over the trailing 3, 5, and 10 year periods driven by Warren Buffett’s success in generating strong book value growth,
earnings, and investment returns. However, the stock underperformed the S&P 500 over the past 12 months reflecting the
company’s increased volatility in both earnings and book value growth. The 21% advance in BRK shares so far in 2010
versus a 7% increase in the S&P 500 Index (including dividends) has been driven in part by the stock being added to the S&P
500 Index, we believe. Going forward, we expect BRK shares to perform mostly in line with the S&P 500 driven by book value
per share growth although operating earnings appear stalled through 2011.

Figure 62. Berkshire Stock Performance Vs. S&P 500


140%
116%
120%
100%
80%
60% 49%
36% 37%
40% 21%
20% 7% 10% 11%

0%
-20% -6%
-12%
Year-to-date Past 1 Yr Past 3 Yrs Past 5 Yrs past 10 Yrs

BRK.B S&P 500 incl dividends

Source: SNL Insurance, Barclays Capital research.

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BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY RISKS

There are several risks that could impede the achievement of our price target for Berkshire Hathaway.

• Executive Management Risk. Warren Buffett, age 79, in consultation with Charles Munger, age 86, is responsible
for all major capital allocation decisions for Berkshire Hathaway. It is not known currently when Mr. Buffett plans to
retire, although the board of directors has a succession plan in place.
• Large and concentrated stock investments. Berkshire Hathaway has large ownership stakes in equities
substantially concentrated in seven companies. If the value of these stocks decline, it could result in reduced
shareholders’ equity.
• Derivatives losses. Berkshire has exposure to losses from its credit default and equity index put option contracts
although it has received significant compensation for assuming risks. The equity index put option contracts ($38 bn
notional value) do not expire before 2019, and it would appear to require massive declines in the equity indexes as of
expiration for Berkshire to suffer economic losses. There is no cash settlement before expiration, although mark-to-
market effects will be reflected in Berkshire’s income statement on an ongoing basis.
• Volatile earnings. Berkshire Hathaway’s quarterly and annual earnings can be more volatile than many other large
publicly traded companies, reflecting a focus on long-term economic returns, as well as exposures to shock insurance
losses, derivatives, utility and energy markets, railroads, and economically sensitive manufacturing and services
businesses.
• Insurance Risks. These include natural and man-made catastrophe losses including hurricanes and terrorism, large
individual underwriting transactions, potential loss reserve inadequacies, and further deterioration in reinsurance
market conditions. Berkshire estimates it could incur a probable maximum loss of roughly $7 bn from a single
catastrophe loss event, although it believes it is being paid properly to assume this risk. Berkshire has $59 billion in
loss reserves for insurance operations, which means if adverse loss reserve development occurred it could have a
material impact on reported earnings.
• Credit Ratings. Berkshire Hathaway’s counterparty credit and insurer financial strength ratings have been reduced
by S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch to the AA level from AAA after the close of the BNSF acquisition. Moody’s cited potential
additional downgrade thresholds such as losses from insurance underwriting, investments and/or derivatives causing
a 20% decline in shareholders’ equity in a given year, or a decline in cash balances to levels approaching $10 billion
(cash as of year-end 2009 is $23 billion, adjusted for $8 bn earmarked for the BNSF acquisition ). Berkshire’s utilities
and manufactured housing finance operations depend on access to borrowed funds through the capital markets.
• Mergers and acquisitions. Berkshire Hathaway has completed significant acquisitions over time to enhance and
diversify its earnings, which presents both execution and, sometimes, financing risk. It’s most recent acquisition of
railroad operation Burlington Northern Santa Fe for $26 billion is Berkshire’s largest ever.
• Regulatory Risk. If the U.S. federal government decided to nationalize catastrophic insurance risk from hurricanes,
which we believe is highly unlikely to occur, it could lead to reduced demand for property reinsurance coverage
offered by Berkshire. Berkshire’s utility, energy, and railroad operations are also in highly regulated industries.

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Figure 63. Berkshire Hathaway Annual Summary Financial Model
(In $millions, except per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
Insurance:
Total P& C insurance net premiums earned $19,702 $21,600 $29,321 $22,945 $25,258 $25,850 $26,620
Lif e/healt h net premiums earned 2,295 2,364 2,462 2,580 2,626 2,684 2,745
Total insurance premiums earned 21,997 23,964 31,783 25,525 27,884 28,534 29,365
P&C incurred losses & claims expense 19,760 17,915 28,409 22,733 26,325 27,603 26,192
Loss reserve change 6,453 3,060 12,950 7,342 10,803 12,103 10,692
Paid claims 13,307 14,855 15,459 15,391 15,522 15,500 15,500
P&C pre-tax underw rit ing gain/(loss) (58) 3,685 3,294 2,613 1,382 742 428
Lif e/healt h pre-t ax underw riting gain/(loss) 111 153 80 179 177 189 245
Total Insurance underw riting income 53 3,838 3,374 2,792 1,559 931 673
Insurance Invest ment Income 3,480 4,316 4,758 4,722 5,173 4,850 4,752
Insurance pre-tax income 3,533 8,154 8,132 7,514 6,732 5,781 5,425
Utilities, Energy, & Railroad:
MidAmerican pre-tax income - 1,476 1,774 2,963 1,528 1,746 1,785
Burlingt on Northern Sant a Fe pre-tax income - - - - - 2,949 3,811
Utilities, Energy & Railroad pre-tax income - 1,476 1,774 2,963 1,528 4,695 5,597
Manufacturing Service & Retail pre-tax income 2,623 3,526 3,947 4,023 2,058 2,138 2,260
Finance & Financial Products pre-tax income 822 1,157 1,006 787 781 773 783
Total segment pre-tax income 6,978 14,313 14,859 15,287 11,099 13,387 14,064
Investment gains/losses 6,310 1,953 5,599 918 387 1,100 559
Other-than-t emporary losses on invest ment s (114) (142) (1) (1,558) (3,224) - -
Derivative gains/losses (702) 824 (89) (6,821) 3,624 -
Int erest expense, ex. int erest allocat ed t o op businesses 72 76 52 35 42 149 164
Eliminat ions & other (132) (94) (155) (217) (292) (320) (320)
Earnings before taxes & equity method 12,268 16,778 20,161 7,574 11,552 14,018 14,139
Income t ax expense 4,159 5,505 6,594 1,978 3,538 4,747 4,807
Earnings f rom equity met hod investment s 523 - - - 427 60 -
Net earnings 8,632 11,273 13,567 5,596 8,441 9,330 9,332
Less earnings att ributable to non-cont rolling int erests 104 258 354 602 386 400 400
Net earnings attributable To Berkshire Hathaway 8,528 11,015 13,213 4,994 8,055 8,930 8,932
Investment & derivative gains/(losses) 3,530 1,709 3,579 (4,645) 486 732 369
Operating income, A/T 4,998 9,306 9,634 9,639 7,569 8,199 8,563
Net earnings at t ribut able To Berkshire Hathaw ay 8,528 11,015 13,213 4,994 8,055 8,930 8,932
Net chg in unrealized appreciation of invest ment s 2,081 9,278 2,523 (23,342) 17,607 5,919 4,998
Applicable income t axes 728 3,246 872 (8,257) 6,263 2,072 1,749
Foreign currency translat ion & other (6,631) (493) (4,803) (2,376) 3,372 - -
Applicable income t axes (2,203) (381) (1,795) (194) 987 - -
Other comprehensive income, net (3,075) 5,920 (1,357) (17,267) 13,729 3,847 3,249
Comprehensive income attributable to Berkshire 5,453 16,935 11,856 (12,273) 21,784 12,778 12,181
Per share
Operating earnings per Class A equivalent share $3,244 $6,036 $6,232 $6,223 $4,879 $5,015 $5,200
Operating earnings per Class B share $2.16 $4.02 $4.16 $4.15 $3.25 $3.34 $3.47
Net income per Class A equivalent share $5,535 $7,145 $8,548 $3,224 $5,192 $5,463 $5,424
Comprehensive earnings per Class A equivalent share $3,539 $10,985 $7,670 ($7,924) $14,041 $7,816 $7,397
Class A shares outstanding 1.26 1.12 1.08 1.06 1.06 1.14 1.14
Class B shares out st anding 419.70 637.62 700.00 735.35 744.70 765.70 765.70
Class B shrs on equivalent class A basis 0.28 0.43 0.47 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.51
Class A equivalent shrs outst anding 1.54 1.54 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.65 1.65
Avg. Class A equivalent shrs out st anding 1.54 1.54 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.63 1.65
Book value per Class A equivalent share $59,377 $70,281 $78,008 $70,530 $84,487 $94,147 $101,544
Book value per Class B equivalent share $39.58 $46.85 $52.01 $47.02 $56.32 $62.76 $67.70
Linked-qtr grow t h NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
Book value per share, ex AOCI per A share $48,110 $55,387 $64,039 $67,977 $73,020 $81,005 $86,429
Tangible book value per Class A share $44,031 $49,383 $56,775 $48,725 $62,594 $63,607 $71,005
Tangible book value per Class B share $29.35 $32.92 $37.85 $32.48 $41.73 $42.40 $47.34
Operating return on equity 5.6% 9.3% 8.4% 8.4% 6.3% 5.7% 5.3%
Operat ing ROE, ex. AOCI 7.2% 11.7% 10.4% 9.4% 6.9% 6.6% 6.2%
Ret urn on tangible equit y 7.6% 12.9% 11.7% 11.8% 8.8% 8.1% 7.7%
Comprehensive ROE 6.1% 16.9% 10.3% -10.7% 18.1% 8.9% 7.6%
Comprehensive tangible ROE 8.3% 23.5% 14.5% -15.0% 25.2% 12.7% 11.0%
Cash dividends per share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
P&C Insurance combined ratio 100.3% 82.9% 88.8% 88.6% 94.5% 97.1% 98.4%
Pret ax catast rophe losses 3,312 254 226 1,022 131 542 317
Cat astrophe comb. rat io impact 16.8% 1.2% 0.8% 4.5% 0.5% 2.1% 1.2%
Prior year reserve development (357) (612) (1,478) (1,140) (905) (775) (225)
Prior year development comb. rat io impact -1.8% -2.8% -5.0% -5.0% -3.6% -3.0% -0.8%
P&C Insurance combined ratio ex cats 83.5% 81.8% 88.0% 84.2% 94.0% 95.0% 97.2%
P&C Insurance CR ex cats & PY devel. 85.3% 84.6% 93.0% 89.1% 97.6% 98.0% 98.0%
Year-over-year percentage change
Insurance:
P&C net premiums earned 9.6% 35.7% -21.7% 10.1% 2.3% 3.0%
Invest ment income 24.0% 10.2% -0.8% 9.6% -6.2% -2.0%
Operating income 130.8% -0.3% -7.6% -10.4% -14.1% -6.2%
MidAmerican pre-t ax income NM 20.2% 67.0% -48.4% 14.3% 2.2%
BNSF pre-t ax income NM NM NM NM NM 29.3%
Tot al Utilit ies & Energy pre-tax income NM 20.2% 67.0% -48.4% 207.3% 19.2%
Manuf act uring Service & Ret ail pre-t ax income 34.4% 11.9% 1.9% -48.8% 3.9% 5.7%
Finance & Financial Products pre-t ax income 40.8% -13.1% -21.8% -0.8% -1.0% 1.2%
Tot al pre-tax segment income 105.1% 3.8% 2.9% -27.4% 20.6% 5.1%
Operat ing EPS 86.1% 3.3% -0.2% -21.6% 2.8% 3.7%
Book value per share 18.4% 11.0% -9.6% 19.8% 11.4% 7.9%

Ef f ect ive t ax rate 33.9% 32.8% 32.7% 26.1% 30.6% 33.9% 34.0%
Adjust ed t ot al debt /capital 5.8% 18.0% 17.1% 19.3% 16.5% 22.2% 20.9%
Tot al insurance f loat $49,287 $50,887 $58,698 $58,488 $61,911
Avg Insurance invest ment s (excl cash, f ixed income at cost ) $67,069 $79,855 $94,183 $98,046 $102,386 $118,373 $132,724
Average Insurance pre-t ax yield 5.2% 5.4% 5.1% 4.8% 5.1% 4.1% 3.6%
Insurance invest ed asset s (at f air value) per A share $74,129 $80,636 $90,343 $77,793 $96,409 $91,177 $99,756
Non Insurance pre-t ax earnings $3,341 $5,901 $6,373 $7,171 $3,981 $7,206 $8,239
Non-Insurance earnings per A share $2,168 $3,828 $4,123 $4,630 $2,566 $4,408 $5,004
Free cash flow $7,251 $5,624 $7,177 $5,114 $10,909 $7,885 $8,529

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital estimates.

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Figure 64. Berkshire Hathaway Quarterly Summary Financial Model
(In $millions, except per share) 2008 2009 2010E
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Insurance:
Tot al P&C insurance net premiums earned $5,543 $5,564 $5,826 $6,012 $7,567 $5,873 $5,939 $5,879 $6,900 $6,243 $6,403 $6,303
Lif e/healt h net premiums earned 666 667 639 608 616 612 656 742 628 624 672 760
Tot al insurance premiums earned 6209 6231 6465 6620 8,183 6,485 6,595 6621 7,528 6,867 7,075 7,063
P& C incurred losses & claims expense 5288 5051 5767 4226 7,235 5,810 5,458 5373 6,763 5,943 6,266 6,136
Loss reserve change NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Paid claims NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
P& C pre-t ax underw riting gain/(loss) 255 513 59 1786 332 63 481 506 137 300 137 167
Lif e/healt h pre-tax underw rit ing gain/(loss) 27 47 67 38 7 62 79 29 8 69 77 35
Tot al Insurance underw riting income 282 560 126 1,824 339 125 560 535 145 369 214 202
Insurance Investment Income 1,089 1,204 1,074 1,355 1,298 1,422 1,348 1,105 1,205 1,210 1,215 1,220
Insurance pre-tax income 1,371 1,764 1,200 3,179 1,637 1,547 1,908 1,640 1,350 1,579 1,429 1,422
Utilities, Energy, & Railroad:
MidAmerican pre-t ax income 516 329 526 1,592 303 402 441 382 405 344 490 507
Burlingt on Northern Sant a Fe pre-tax income - - - - - - - - 378 819 901 851
Utilities, Energy & Railroad pre-tax income 516 329 526 1,592 303 402 441 382 783 1,163 1,391 1,358
Manufacturing Service & Retail pre-tax income 845 1,285 1,113 780 511 437 608 502 474 490 606 568
Finance & Financial Products pre-tax income 241 254 163 129 127 135 142 377 121 134 139 379
Total segment pre-tax income 2,973 3,632 3,002 5,680 2,578 2,521 3,099 2,901 2,728 3,366 3,565 3,727
Invest ment gains/losses 115 675 (46) 174 (370) 3 110 644 1,100 - - -
Ot her-t han-t emporary losses on invest ment s 0 (429) (250) (879) (3,096) (30) (25) (73) - - - -
Derivat ive gains/losses (1,641) 689 (1,261) (4,608) (1,517) 2,357 1,732 1,052 - - - -
Interest expense, ex. int erest allocated t o op businesses 8 9 9 9 8 15 11 8 26 41 41 41
Eliminations & ot her 14 (87) 66 (210) (130) (45) (66) (51) (80) (80) (80) (80)
Earnings before taxes & equity method 1,453 4,471 1,502 148 (2,543) 4,791 4,839 4,465 3,722 3,245 3,444 3,606
Income t ax expense 408 1,443 294 (167) (1,014) 1,520 1,601 1,431 1,247 1,103 1,171 1,226
Earnings from equit y met hod invest ment s 0 0 0 0 83 113 111 120 60 - - -
Net earnings 1,045 3,028 1,208 315 (1,446) 3,384 3,349 3,154 2,535 2,142 2,273 2,380
Less earnings att ribut able to non-controlling int erests 105 148 151 198 88 89 111 98 100 100 100 100
Net earnings attributable To Berkshire Hathaway 940 2,880 1,057 117 (1,534) 3,295 3,238 3,056 2,435 2,042 2,173 2,280
Invest ment & derivat ive gains/(losses) (991) 610 (1,012) (3,252) (3,239) 1,515 1,183 1,027 732 - - -
Operating income, A/T 1,931 2,270 2,069 3,369 1,705 1,780 2,055 2,029 1,704 2,042 2,173 2,280
Net earnings at tribut able To Berkshire Hathaw ay 940 2,880 1,057 117 (1,534) 3,295 3,238 3,056 2,435 2,042 2,173 2,280
Net chg in unrealized appreciat ion of invest ments (3,998) (6,690) 3,184 (15,838) (7,034) 11,594 12,723 324 2,315 1,178 1,201 1,225
Applicable income taxes (1,408) (2,331) 1,113 (5,631) (2,460) 4,062 4,534 127 810 412 420 429
Foreign currency translation & ot her 103 72 (1,039) (1,512) (506) 909 221 2,748 - - - -
Applicable income taxes (38) 3 (71) (88) (87) 6 99 969 - - - -
Ot her comprehensive income, net (2,449) (4,290) 1,103 (11,631) (4,993) 8,435 8,311 1,976 1,505 765 781 796
Comprehensive income attributable to Berkshire (1,509) (1,410) 2,160 (11,514) (6,527) 11,730 11,549 5,032 3,940 2,807 2,954 3,076
Per share
Operating earnings per Class A equivalent share $1,247 $1,465 $1,336 $2,175 $1,100 $1,147 $1,324 $1,308 $1,065 $1,240 $1,320 $1,385
Operating earnings per Class B share $0.83 $0.98 $0.89 $1.45 $0.73 $0.76 $0.88 $0.87 $0.71 $0.83 $0.88 $0.92
Net income per Class A equivalent share $607 $1,859 $682 $76 -$989 $2,123 $2,087 $1,969 $1,523 $1,240 $1,320 $1,385
Comprehensive earnings per Class A equivalent share -$975 -$910 $1,394 -$7,432 -$4,210 $7,559 $7,443 $3,243 $2,464 $1,705 $1,794 $1,868
Class A shares outst anding 1.08 1.07 1.07 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14
Class B shares out standing 702.11 714.30 724.79 735.35 741.32 741.62 742.02 744.70 765.70 765.70 765.70 765.70
Class B shrs on equivalent class A basis 0.47 0.48 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.51
Class A equivalent shrs out st anding 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65
Avg. Class A equivalent shrs outstanding 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.65 1.65
Book value per Class A equivalent share $77,072 $76,163 $77,558 $70,530 $66,248 $73,806 $81,247 $84,487 $88,780 $90,485 $92,279 $94,147
Book value per Class B equivalent share $51.38 $50.78 $51.71 $47.02 $44.17 $49.20 $54.16 $56.32 $59.19 $60.32 $61.52 $62.76
Linked-qt r grow t h -1.2% -1.2% 1.8% -9.1% -6.1% 11.4% 10.1% 4.0% 5.1% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%
Book value per share, ex AOCI per A share $64,695 $66,558 $67,241 $67,977 $66,847 $68,970 $71,054 $73,020 $77,061 $78,301 $79,620 $81,005
Tangible book value per Class A share $55,415 $54,524 $55,914 $48,725 $44,479 $51,945 $59,353 $62,594 $58,241 $59,945 $61,739 $63,607
Tangible book value per Class B share $36.94 $36.35 $37.28 $32.48 $29.65 $34.63 $39.57 $41.73 $38.83 $39.96 $41.16 $42.40
Operating return on equity 6.1% 6.1% 6.7% 6.8% 5.5% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4%
Operating ROE, ex. AOCI 6.7% 6.8% 7.7% 7.4% 5.9% 6.9% 7.2% 7.4%
Ret urn on t angible equity 8.8% 8.6% 9.2% 9.4% 8.3% 9.1% 9.0% 9.0%
Comprehensive ROE -23.5% 40.4% 37.5% 16.7% 12.7% 8.5% 8.5% 8.6%
Comprehensive t angible ROE -33.7% 56.8% 51.7% 23.3% 19.1% 12.5% 12.2% 12.2%
Cash dividends per share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
P&C Insurance combined ratio 95.4% 90.8% 99.0% 70.3% 95.6% 98.9% 91.9% 91.4% 98.0% 95.2% 97.9% 97.3%
Pret ax cat astrophe losses 32 78 1,049 -137 71 11 153 -104 225 40 202 75
Cat astrophe comb. ratio impact 0.6% 1.4% 18.0% -2.3% 0.9% 0.2% 2.6% -1.8% 3.3% 0.6% 3.2% 1.2%
Prior year reserve development
Prior year development comb. ratio impact
P&C Insurance combined ratio ex cats 94.8% 89.4% 81.0% 72.6% 94.7% 98.7% 89.3% 93.2% 94.8% 94.5% 94.7% 96.2%
P&C Insurance CR ex cats & PY devel.
Year-over-year percentage change
Insurance:
P& C net premiums earned -57.1% 4.4% 7.6% 6.0% 36.5% 5.6% 1.9% -2.2% -8.8% 6.3% 7.8% 7.2%
Invest ment income 1.0% -2.6% -11.8% 10.4% 19.2% 18.1% 25.5% -18.5% -7.2% -14.9% -9.9% 10.4%
Operat ing income -31.6% -20.2% -39.1% 63.2% 19.4% -12.3% 59.0% -48.4% -17.5% 2.1% -25.1% -13.3%
MidAmerican pre-t ax income 0.6% -11.6% 9.4% 290.2% -41.3% 22.2% -16.2% -76.0% 33.8% -14.3% 11.1% 32.6%
BNSF pre-tax income NA NA NA NA NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
Tot al Ut ilities & Energy pre-t ax income 0.6% -11.6% 9.4% 290.2% -41.3% 22.2% -16.2% -76.0% 158.4% 189.3% 215.4% 255.5%
Manufacturing Service & Ret ail pre-tax income 8.2% 18.2% 4.0% -22.7% -39.5% -66.0% -45.4% -35.6% -7.3% 12.1% -0.3% 13.1%
Finance & Financial Product s pre-tax income -0.4% -8.3% -40.3% -39.7% -47.3% -46.9% -12.9% 192.2% -4.7% -0.7% -2.1% 0.5%
Tot al pre-tax segment income -16.0% -8.0% -20.9% 58.7% -13.3% -30.6% 3.2% -48.9% 5.8% 33.5% 15.0% 28.5%
Operating EPS -13.0% -9.8% -19.3% 43.2% -11.8% -21.7% -0.8% -39.9% -3.1% 8.1% -0.3% 5.9%
Book value per share 8.2% 2.2% 0.1% -9.6% -14.0% -3.1% 4.8% 19.8% 34.0% 22.6% 13.6% 11.4%

Eff ect ive tax rate 28.1% 32.3% 19.6% NM 39.9% 31.7% 33.1% 32.0% 33.5% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0%
Adjust ed total debt/capit al 18.2% 17.7% 17.6% 19.3% 20.7% 18.9% 17.1% 16.5% 23.2% 22.9% 22.5% 22.2%
Tot al insurance float $60,000 $61,000 $62,000 $61,911
Avg Insurance invest ments (excl cash, f ixed income at cost) $102,494 $102,021 $103,386 $99,774 $92,319 $97,086 $107,666 $111,325 $113,178 $117,276 $120,740 $124,203
Average Insurance pre-tax yield 4.3% 4.7% 4.2% 5.4% 5.6% 5.9% 5.0% 4.0% 4.3% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9%
Insurance invested asset s (at fair value) per A share $87,441 $83,978 $86,188 $74,337 $73,997 $83,530 $92,437 $96,409 $85,374 $87,294 $89,228 $91,177
Non Insurance pre-tax earnings $1,497 $1,720 $1,651 $2,303 $853 $885 $1,080 $1,163 $1,278 $1,687 $2,036 $2,205
Non-Insurance earnings per A share $967 $1,110 $1,066 $1,487 $550 $570 $696 $749 $799 $1,024 $1,236 $1,339
Free cash f low $2,643 $748 $2,337 $1,588 $3,830 $1,967 $3,629 $3,007 $1,971 $1,971 $1,971 $1,971

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital estimates.

52
Equity Research
Figure 65. Berkshire Hathaway Insurance Segment Model
(In $ Mil) 2009 2010E
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Total Insurance
P&C gross w ritten premiums $20,370 $22,953 $29,372 $24,913 $25,805
Ceded premiums 739 544 554 704 552
Ret ention rat io 96.4% 97.6% 98.1% 97.2% 97.9%
P&C net w ritt en premiums 19,631 22,409 28,818 24,209 25,253
P&C insurance net premiums earned 19,702 21,600 29,321 22,945 25,258 25,850 26,620 7,567 5,873 5,939 5,879 6,900 6,243 6,403 6,303
Lif e/health net premiums earned 2,295 2,364 2,462 2,580 2,626 2,684 2,745 616 612 656 742 628 624 672 760
Tot al insurance premiums earned 21,997 23,964 31,783 25,525 27,884 28,534 29,365 8,183 6,485 6,595 6,621 7,528 6,867 7,075 7,063
P&C Incurred losses & claims expense 19,760 17,915 26,027 20,332 23,876 25,108 26,192 7,235 5,810 5,458 5,373 6,763 5,943 6,266 6,136
P&C reserve change 6,453 3,060 10,568 4,941 8,354 9,608 10,692 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
P&C paid claims 13,307 14,855 15,459 15,391 15,522 15,500 15,500 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
P&C pre-tax underw rit ing gain/(loss) (58) 3,685 3,294 2,613 1,382 742 428 332 63 481 506 137 300 137 167
Lif e/health pre-t ax underw riting gain/loss 111 153 80 179 177 189 245 7 62 79 29 8 69 77 35
Tot al pre-tax underw riting gain/loss 53 3,838 3,374 2,792 1,559 931 673 339 125 560 535 145 369 214 202
Pre-tax investment income 3,480 4,316 4,758 4,722 5,173 4,850 4,752 1,298 1,422 1,348 1,105 1,205 1,210 1,215 1,220
Total pre-tax operating income 3,533 8,154 8,132 7,514 6,732 5,781 5,425 1,637 1,547 1,908 1,640 1,350 1,579 1,429 1,422
Income taxes and noncontrolling interests 26 1,353 1,190 987 546 120 42 197 187
Net underw riting gain 27 2,485 2,184 1,805 1,013 931 673 219 83 363 348
Net income 3,507 6,801 6,942 6,527 6,186 5,781 5,425 1,517 1,505 1,711 1,453

Total P&C Combined Ratio 100.3% 82.9% 88.8% 88.6% 94.5% 97.1% 98.4% 95.6% 98.9% 91.9% 91.4% 98.0% 95.2% 97.9% 97.3%
Cat astrophe losses 3,312 254 226 1,022 131 542 317 71 11 153 (104) 225 40 202 75
Cat . losses C/R pt s. 16.8% 1.2% 0.8% 4.5% 0.5% 2.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.2% 2.6% -1.8% 3.3% 0.6% 3.2% 1.2%
Prior year development (357) (612) (1,478) (1,140) (905) (775) (225)
PY development C/R pt s. -1.6% -2.6% -4.7% -4.5% -3.2% -2.7% -0.8%
Total P&C Combined Ratio ex cats and prior year developm 85.1% 84.3% 92.6% 88.6% 97.3% 97.7% 98.0% 94.7% 98.7% 89.3% 93.2% 94.8% 94.5% 94.7% 96.2%
Year-Over-Year Percentage Change
P&C gross w ritten premiums 12.7% 28.0% -15.2% 3.6%
P&C net w ritt en premiums 14.2% 28.6% -16.0% 4.3%
P&C net earned premiums 9.6% 35.7% -21.7% 10.1% 2.3% 3.0% 36.5% 5.6% 1.9% -2.2% -8.8% 6.3% 7.8% 7.2%
Lif e net earned premiums 3.0% 4.1% 4.8% 1.8% 2.2% 2.3% -7.5% -8.2% 2.7% 22.0% 1.9% 2.0% 2.4% 2.4%
Net investment income NA 10.2% -0.8% 9.6% -6.2% -2.0% 19.2% 18.1% 25.5% -18.5% -7.2% -14.9% -9.9% 10.4%
Tot al pre-tax income 130.8% -0.3% -7.6% -10.4% -14.1% -6.2% 19.4% -12.3% 59.0% -48.4% -17.5% 2.1% -25.1% -13.3%
Tot al insurance float $49,287 $50,887 $58,698 $58,488 $61,911 $60,000 $61,000 $62,000 $61,911

GEICO
Premiums w rit ten $10,285 $11,303 $11,931 $12,741 $13,378 $13,780 $14,055
Premiums earned 10,101 11,055 11,806 12,479 13,576 14,450 15,100 3,261 3,394 3,448 3,473 3,500 3,600 3,650 3,700
Loss & LAE expenses 7,128 7,749 8,523 9,332 10,457 11,490 12,285 2,514 2,648 2,636 2,659 2,765 2,863 2,906 2,956
Underw riting expenses 1,752 1,992 2,170 2,231 2,470 2,620 2,750 599 635 612 624 645 675 650 650
Tot al losses & expenses 8,880 9,741 10,693 11,563 12,927 14,110 15,035 3,113 3,283 3,248 3,283 3,410 3,538 3,556 3,606
Pre-tax underw riting gain 1,221 1,314 1,113 916 649 340 65 148 111 200 190 90 62 94 94
Underwriting Ratios:
Loss & LAE ratio 70.6% 70.1% 72.2% 74.8% 77.0% 79.5% 81.4% 77.1% 78.0% 76.5% 76.6% 79.0% 79.5% 79.6% 79.9%
Expense ratio 17.3% 18.0% 18.4% 17.9% 18.2% 18.1% 18.2% 18.4% 18.7% 17.7% 18.0% 18.4% 18.8% 17.8% 17.6%
Combined Ratio 87.9% 88.1% 90.6% 92.7% 95.2% 97.6% 99.6% 95.5% 96.7% 94.2% 94.5% 97.4% 98.3% 97.4% 97.5%
Cat astrophe losses 227 54 34 87 83 25 25 - - 73 10 - - 25 -
Cat . losses C/R pt s. 2.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0%
Prior year development (410) (375) (205) (194) (100) (50)
PY development C/R pt s. -3.7% -3.2% -1.6% -1.4% -0.7% -0.3%
Combined Ratio ex cats and prior year development 91.3% 93.5% 93.6% 96.0% 98.2% 99.7% 95.5% 96.7% 92.1% 94.2% 97.4% 98.3% 96.7% 97.5%
Year-over-year increase in NWP 11.6% 9.9% 5.6% 6.8% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Year-over-year increase in NPE NA 9.4% 6.8% 5.7% 8.8% 6.4% 4.5% 7.6% 10.0% 9.5% 8.2% 7.3% 6.1% 5.9% 6.5%
Policies-in-f orce grow th 12.4% 10.7% 8.8% 8.2% 7.8% 7.5% 7.0% 10.3% 10.8% 10.1% 7.8%
New business sales grow t h (year-to-date) 14.0% 8.8% 5.0% 2.0% 9.0% 32.0% 25.6% 18.2% 9.0%
Insurance float $6,692 $7,171 $7,768 $8,454 $9,613

General Re
P&C premiums w rit ten $3,852 $3,581 $3,478 $3,383 $3,091
P&C premiums earned 4,140 3,711 3,614 3,434 3,203 3,055 3,075 763 814 820 806 725 770 780 780
Lif e/health premiums earned 2,295 2,364 2,462 2,580 2,626 2,684 2,745 616 612 656 742 628 624 672 760
Tot al premiums earned 6,435 6,075 6,076 6,014 5,829 5,739 5,820 1,379 1,426 1,476 1,548 1,353 1,394 1,452 1,540
P&C incurred losses & claims expense 6,769 5,549 3,139 3,271 2,903 2,915 3,000 786 600 713 804 725 650 725 815
Lif e operating cost s & expense 2,382 2,401 2,449 2,495 2,500 609 550 577 713 620 555 595 725
P&C pre-tax underw rit ing gain/(loss) (445) 373 475 163 300 140 75 (23) 214 107 2 0 120 55 (35)
Lif e/health pre-t ax underw riting gain/(loss) 111 153 80 179 177 189 245 7 62 79 29 8 69 77 35
Tot al pre-tax underw riting gain/(loss) (334) 526 555 342 477 329 320 (16) 276 186 31 8 189 132 0
Underwriting Ratios:
P&C combined ratio 110.7% 89.9% 86.9% 95.3% 90.6% 95.4% 97.6% 103.0% 73.7% 87.0% 99.8% 100.0% 84.4% 92.9% 104.5%
Cat astrophe losses 685 0 192 230 48 152 155 71 11 80 (114) 50 15 62 25
Cat . Losses C/R pts. 16.5% 0.0% 5.3% 6.7% 1.5% 5.0% 5.0% 9.3% 1.4% 9.8% -14.1% 6.9% 1.9% 7.9% 3.2%
P&C combined ratio ex cats 94.2% 89.9% 81.5% 88.6% 89.1% 90.4% 92.5% 93.7% 72.4% 77.2% 113.9% 93.1% 82.5% 85.0% 101.3%
Life/Health underwriting margin 4.8% 6.5% 3.2% 6.9% 6.7% 7.0% 8.9% 1.1% 10.1% 12.0% 3.9% 1.3% 11.1% 11.5% 4.6%
Year-over-year increase in P&C NPW NA -7.0% -2.9% -2.7% -8.6% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Year-over-year increase in P&C NPE NA -10.4% -2.6% -5.0% -6.7% -4.6% 0.7% -26.5% -0.9% 0.1% 6.6% -5.0% -5.4% -4.9% -3.2%
Year-over-year increase in Lif e NPE NA 3.0% 4.1% 4.8% 1.8% 2.2% 2.3% -7.5% -8.2% 2.7% 22.0% 1.9% 2.0% 2.4% 2.4%
Insurance float $22,920 $22,827 $23,009 $21,074 $21,014

Berkshire Hathway Reinsurance Group


Cat astrophe & individual risk premiums earned $1,663 $2,196 $1,577 $955 $823 $725 $735 $254 $241 $197 $131 $220 $210 $175 $120
Ret roactive reinsurance premiums earned 10 146 7,708 204 1,989 2,000 2,000 1,809 77 0 103 1,000 333 333 333
Ot her multi-line premiums earned 2,290 2,634 2,617 3,923 3,894 3,900 3,960 1,024 892 1,032 946 1,025 895 1,030 950
Tot al premiums earned 3,963 4,976 11,902 5,082 6,706 6,625 6,695 3,087 1,210 1,229 1,180 2,245 1,438 1,538 1,403
Incurred losses & claims expense 5,032 3,318 10,475 3,758 6,357 6,390 6,395 2,884 1,501 1,062 910 2,200 1,340 1,545 1,305
Cat & individual risk incurred losses & claims expense 2,841 608 100 179 41 440 235 101 72 (74) (58) 300 45 75 20
Ret roactive reins. incurred losses & claims expense 224 319 8,083 618 2,437 2,550 2,600 1,916 172 137 212 1,000 525 565 460
Ot her multi-line incurred losses & claims expense 1,967 2,391 2,292 2,961 3,879 3,400 3,560 867 1,257 999 756 900 770 905 825
Pre-tax underwriting gain/(loss):
Cat astrophe & individual risk P/T underw riting gain/(loss) (1,178) 1,588 1,477 776 782 285 500 153 169 271 189 (80) 165 100 100
Ret roactive reinsurance P/T underw riting gain/(loss) (214) (173) (375) (414) (448) (550) (600) (107) (95) (137) (109) 0 (192) (232) (127)
Ot her multi-line P/T underw riting gain/(loss) 323 243 325 962 15 500 400 157 (365) 33 190 125 125 125 125
Tot al pre-tax underw riting gain/(loss) (1,069) 1,658 1,427 1,324 349 235 300 203 (291) 167 270 45 98 (7) 98
Underwriting ratios:
Catastrophe & individual risk combined ratio 170.8% 27.7% 6.3% 18.7% 5.0% 60.7% 32.0% 39.8% 29.9% NM NM 136.4% 21.4% 42.9% 16.7%
Retroactive reinsurance combined ratio NM 218.5% 104.9% 302.9% 122.5% 127.5% 130.0% 105.9% 223.4% NM 205.8% 100.0% 157.5% 169.5% 138.0%
Other multi-line combined ratio 85.9% 90.8% 87.6% 75.5% 99.6% 87.2% 89.9% 84.7% 140.9% 96.8% 79.9% 87.8% 86.0% 87.9% 86.8%
Combined ratio 127.0% 66.7% 88.0% 73.9% 94.8% 96.5% 95.5% 93.4% 124.0% 86.4% 77.1% 98.0% 93.2% 100.4% 93.0%
Cat astrophe losses 2,400 200 0 705 0 365 270 0 0 0 0 175 25 115 50
Cat . Losses C/R pts. 144.3% 4.0% 0.0% 13.9% 0.0% 5.5% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 1.7% 7.5% 3.6%
Combined ratio ex cats -17.3% 62.7% 88.0% 60.1% 94.8% 90.9% 91.5% 93.4% 124.0% 86.4% 77.1% 90.2% 91.4% 93.0% 89.4%
Year-over-year pct change:
Y-o-y increase in cat astrophe & individual risk NPE 32.1% -28.2% -39.4% -13.8% -11.9% 1.4% 17.1% 8.6% -32.5% -41.5% -13.4% -12.9% -11.2% -8.4%
Y-o-y increase in retroact ive reinsurance NPE NM NM -97.4% NM 0.6% 0.0% NM NM NM 51.2% 55.3% NM NM NM
Y-o-y increase in other multi-line NPE 15.0% -0.6% 49.9% -0.7% 0.2% 1.5% 33.5% -4.2% -5.4% -16.6% 0.1% 0.3% -0.2% 0.4%
Year-over-year increase in NPE 25.6% 139.2% -57.3% 32.0% -1.2% 1.1% 213.7% 4.7% -11.1% -24.3% -27.3% 18.9% 25.2% 18.9%
Insurance float $16,233 $16,860 $23,692 $24,221 $26,223

Berkshire Hathway Primary Insurance Group


Premiums earned $1,498 $1,858 $1,999 $1,950 $1,773 $1,720 $1,750 $456 $455 $442 $420 $430 $435 $435 $420
Incurred losses & claims expense 1,263 1,518 1,720 1,740 1,689 1,693 1,762 452 426 435 376 428 415 440 410
Pre-tax underw riting gain/(loss) 235 340 279 210 84 27 (12) 4 29 7 44 2 20 (5) 10
Combined ratio 84.3% 81.7% 86.0% 89.2% 95.3% 98.4% 100.7% 99.1% 93.6% 98.4% 89.5% 99.5% 95.4% 101.1% 97.6%
Year-over-year increase in P&C NPE NA 24.0% 7.6% -2.5% -9.1% -3.0% 1.7% -6.7% -9.2% -6.8% -13.6% -5.7% -4.4% -1.6% 0.0%
Insurance float 3,442 4,029 4,229 4,739 5,061

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital estimates.

53
Equity Research
Figure 66. Berkshire Hathaway Burlington Northern Santa Fe Model
(In $ Mil) 2009 2010E
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

Freight revenue $12,606 $14,545 $15,349 $17,503 $13,654 $14,924 $16,082 $3,408 $3,217 $3,459 $3,570 $3,583 $3,689 $3,828 $3,824
Fuel surcharge revenue (memo only) 1,103 1,697 1,851 3,241 1,202 1,675 1,839 316 216 309 362 384 404 444 442
Other 381 440 453 515 428 450 455 112 99 106 111 110 115 115 110
Total operating revenues 12,987 14,985 15,802 18,018 14,082 15,374 16,537 3,520 3,316 3,565 3,681 3,693 3,804 3,943 3,934
Compensation & benefits 3,515 3,816 3,773 3,884 3,481 3,501 3,747 868 824 872 917 862 861 885 893
Purchased services 1,713 1,906 2,023 2,136 1,874 1,925 2,060 478 466 453 477 469 476 486 494
Depreciation & amortization 1,111 1,176 1,293 1,397 1,537 1,696 1,736 370 379 386 402 422 424 424 426
Equipment rents 886 930 942 901 777 788 844 201 196 194 186 189 195 203 201
Fuel 1,959 2,856 3,327 4,640 2,372 2,807 2,953 614 509 606 643 672 700 706 730
Materials & other 876 780 877 958 713 739 791 224 145 183 161 176 182 190 190
One time charges (memo only) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total Operating Expenses 10,060 11,464 12,235 13,916 10,754 11,456 12,131 2,755 2,519 2,694 2,786 2,790 2,838 2,894 2,935

Pre-tax operating Income 2,927 3,521 3,567 4,102 3,328 3,918 4,406 765 797 871 895 904 967 1,049 999
Interest expense 437 485 511 533 561 588 589 146 137 127 151 147 147 147 147
Other expense, net 37 40 18 11 8 4 6 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 1
Income before income taxes 2,453 2,996 3,038 3,558 2,759 3,326 3,811 616 659 743 741 756 819 901 851
Income tax expense 919 1107 1,158 1,325 1,050 1,254 1,429 230 255 274 291 285 309 340 321
Net income 1,534 1,889 1,880 2,233 1,709 2,072 2,382 386 404 469 450 471 510 561 530
One time items - - (51) (118) 12 - - (93) - 19 86 - - - -
Net income as reported 1,534 1,889 1,829 2,115 1,721 2,072 2,382 293 404 488 536 471 510 561 530

EBITDA 4,038 4,697 4,860 5,499 4,865 5,614 6,142 1,135 1,176 1,257 1,297 1,326 1,391 1,473 1,425
EBITDAR 4,924 5,627 5,802 6,400 5,642 6,402 6,986 1,336 1,372 1,451 1,483 1,514 1,586 1,676 1,626

Revenues, YoY change


Freight revenue 15.4% 5.5% 14.0% -22.0% 9.3% 7.8% -17.7% -26.0% -27.4% -15.9% 5.1% 14.7% 10.7% 7.1%
Fuel surcharge component (memo only) 53.9% 9.1% 75.1% -62.9% NM NM -50.7% -73.6% -70.1% -51.8% NM NM NM NM
Other 15.5% 3.0% 13.7% -16.9% 5.1% 1.1% -5.1% -23.3% -24.3% -13.3% -1.8% 16.2% 8.5% -0.9%
% chg. revenue 15.4% 5.5% 14.0% -21.8% 9.2% 7.6% -17.4% -25.9% -27.3% -15.8% 4.9% 14.7% 10.6% 6.9%

Operating expense, YoY change


Compensation & benefits 8.6% -1.1% 2.9% -10.4% 0.6% 7.0% -11.7% -13.4% -13.9% -2.1% -0.7% 4.5% 1.5% -2.6%
Purchased services 11.3% 6.1% 5.6% -12.3% 2.7% 7.0% -9.0% -13.7% -15.6% -10.7% -2.0% 2.1% 7.3% 3.6%
Depreciation & amortization 5.9% 9.9% 8.0% 10.0% 10.3% 2.4% 8.5% 8.6% 10.6% 12.3% 14.1% 11.9% 9.8% 6.0%
Equipment rents 5.0% 1.3% -4.4% -13.8% 1.4% 7.0% -12.6% -12.1% -15.7% -14.7% -6.1% -0.5% 4.8% 8.1%
Fuel 45.8% 16.5% 39.5% -48.9% 18.4% 5.2% -41.2% -60.6% -55.1% -32.7% 9.5% 37.5% 16.4% 13.5%
Materials & other -11.0% 12.4% 9.2% -25.6% 3.6% 7.0% -14.5% -34.1% -17.2% -36.9% -21.3% 25.6% 3.9% 18.1%
% chg in total operating expenses 14.0% 6.7% 13.7% -22.7% 6.5% 5.9% -18.6% -29.5% -27.2% -14.5% 1.3% 12.7% 7.4% 5.3%

Margins
Operating margin 22.5% 23.5% 22.6% 22.8% 23.6% 25.5% 26.6% 21.7% 24.0% 24.4% 24.3% 24.5% 25.4% 26.6% 25.4%
EBITDA 31.1% 31.3% 30.8% 30.5% 34.5% 36.5% 37.1% 32.2% 35.5% 35.3% 35.2% 35.9% 36.5% 37.4% 36.2%
EBITDAR 37.9% 37.6% 36.7% 35.5% 40.1% 41.6% 42.2% 38.0% 41.4% 40.7% 40.3% 41.0% 41.7% 42.5% 41.3%
Pre-tax income 18.9% 20.0% 19.2% 19.7% 19.6% 21.6% 23.0% 17.5% 19.9% 20.8% 20.1% 20.5% 21.5% 22.9% 21.6%
Net income 11.8% 12.6% 11.9% 12.4% 12.1% 13.5% 14.4% 11.0% 12.2% 13.2% 12.2% 12.7% 13.4% 14.2% 13.5%

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital estimates.

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Equity Research
Figure 67. Berkshire Hathaway Annual MidAmerican Segment Model
(In $ Mil) 2009 2010E
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Revenues:
MidAmerican Energy Co $3,200 $3,519 $4,325 $4,742 $3,711 $3,731 $3,751 $1,138 $768 $818 $987 $1,114 $816 $850 $951
PacifiCorp - 2,971 4,319 4,558 4,543 4,681 4,732 1,131 1,041 1,171 1,200 1,151 1,085 1,250 1,194
Natural gas pipelines 909 972 1,088 1,221 1,073 1,116 1,161 340 220 210 303 334 226 237 319
U.K. ut ilities 921 961 1,114 1,001 829 850 871 193 199 216 221 222 206 216 207
Real est ate brokerage 1,894 1,724 1,511 1,147 1,071 1,103 1,136 178 290 323 280 209 316 327 250
Ot her 356 497 271 1,302 216 216 216 (31) 137 74 36 (13) 72 42 115
Total revenues 7,280 10,644 12,628 13,971 11,443 11,697 11,866 2,949 2,655 2,812 3,027 3,017 2,721 2,922 3,037

Expenses:
MidAmerican Energy Co 2,912 3,171 3,913 4,317 3,426 3,460 3,495 1,030 728 737 931 1,019 779 771 891
PacifiCorp 0 2,615 3,627 3,855 3,755 3,811 3,868 947 881 940 987 945 897 1,001 969
Natural gas pipelines 600 596 615 626 616 641 666 148 142 143 183 155 152 145 188
U.K. ut ilities 613 623 777 662 581 596 610 125 137 144 175 140 147 155 154
Real est ate brokerage 1,746 1,650 1,469 1,192 1,028 1,059 1,091 191 264 294 279 216 283 297 263
Ot her 232 252 141 24 191 66 66 125 22 34 10 59 38 (18) (13)
Total expenses 6,103 8,907 10,542 10,676 9,597 9,633 9,797 2,566 2,174 2,292 2,565 2,533 2,297 2,352 2,451

Pre-tax earnings:
MidAmerican Energy Co 288 348 412 425 285 271 256 108 40 81 56 96 37 79 60
PacifiCorp 0 356 692 703 788 869 863 184 160 231 213 206 188 249 226
Natural gas pipelines 309 376 473 595 457 475 494 192 78 67 120 179 74 91 131
U.K. ut ilities 308 338 337 339 248 254 261 68 62 72 46 81 58 61 54
Real est ate brokerage 148 74 42 (45) 43 44 46 (13) 26 29 1 (6) 33 30 (12)
Ot her 124 245 130 1,278 25 150 150 (156) 115 40 26 (72) 33 60 128
Tot al 1,177 1,737 2,086 3,295 1,846 2,064 2,069 383 481 520 462 485 424 569 586
Interest , ot her than to Berkshire 200 261 312 332 318 318 284 80 79 79 80 80 80 80 80
Total pre-tax income 977 1,476 1,774 2,963 1,528 1,746 1,785 303 402 441 382 405 344 490 507
Const ellat ion - - - 1,092 - - - - - - - - - - -
Total pre-tax income ex unusual items 977 1,476 1,774 1,871 1,528 1,746 1,785 303 402 441 382 405 344 490 507
Interest on Berkshire junior debt 157 134 108 111 58 58 58 18 16 13 11 15 15 15 15
Income taxes and noncont rolling int erests 257 426 477 1,002 313 506 518 68 115 52 78 117 99 143 148
Net earnings 563 916 1,189 758 1,157 1,182 1,209 217 271 376 293 274 231 333 345
Earnings attributable t o Berkshire (a) 523 885 1,114 1,704 1,071 1,099 1,125 203 253 346 269 254 215 309 320
30% 30%
93% 93%
Capital expendit ures - 2,423 3,513 3,936 3,413 2,600 2,600 812 888 900 813 776 569 592 663

% Chg. Revenue
MidAmerican Energy Co NA 10.0% 22.9% 9.6% -21.7% 0.5% 0.5% -17.4% -29.7% -26.6% -14.6% -2.1% 6.3% 3.9% -3.6%
PacifiCorp NA NM 45.4% 5.5% -0.3% 3.0% 1.1% 2.2% -2.6% -7.1% 7.0% 1.8% 4.2% 6.8% -0.5%
Natural gas pipelines NA 6.9% 11.9% 12.2% -12.1% 4.0% 4.0% -1.2% -9.8% -24.7% -14.4% -1.8% 2.7% 12.7% 5.4%
U.K. ut ilities NA 4.3% 15.9% -10.1% -17.2% 2.5% 2.5% -33.2% -18.4% -12.6% 0.0% 14.8% 3.3% -0.2% -6.3%
Real est ate brokerage NA -9.0% -12.4% -24.1% -6.6% 3.0% 3.0% -27.3% -16.4% -3.3% 26.7% 17.7% 9.0% 1.2% -10.5%
Ot her NA 39.6% -45.5% 380.4% -83.4% 0.0% 0.0% NM NM 17.5% -96.9% NM NM -42.9% 219.6%
Total NA 46.2% 18.6% 10.6% -18.1% 2.2% 1.4% -13.1% -12.5% -14.7% -28.7% 2.3% 2.5% 3.9% 0.3%

Operating Margin
MidAmerican Energy Co 9.0% 9.9% 9.5% 9.0% 7.7% 7.3% 6.8% 9.5% 5.2% 9.9% 5.7% 8.6% 4.6% 9.2% 6.3%
PacifiCorp NA 12.0% 16.0% 15.4% 17.3% 18.6% 18.2% 16.3% 15.4% 19.7% 17.8% 17.9% 17.3% 19.9% 18.9%
Natural gas pipelines 34.0% 38.7% 43.5% 48.7% 42.6% 42.6% 42.6% 56.5% 35.5% 31.9% 39.6% 53.7% 32.7% 38.5% 41.0%
U.K. ut ilities 33.4% 35.2% 30.3% 33.9% 29.9% 29.9% 29.9% 35.2% 31.2% 33.3% 20.8% 36.8% 28.4% 28.2% 25.8%
Real est ate brokerage 7.8% 4.3% 2.8% -3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% -7.3% 9.0% 9.0% 0.4% -2.9% 10.4% 9.1% -4.9%
Ot her 34.8% 49.3% 48.0% 98.2% 11.6% 69.4% 69.4% NM 83.9% 54.1% 72.2% NM 46.7% 141.4% 111.6%
Total operating margin 16.2% 16.3% 16.5% 23.6% 16.1% 17.6% 17.4% 13.0% 18.1% 18.5% 15.3% 16.1% 15.6% 19.5% 19.3%

% Chg. Operating Income


MidAmerican Energy Co NA 20.8% 18.4% 3.2% -32.9% -4.9% -5.7% -19.4% -40.3% -31.9% -46.7% -11.5% -6.7% -3.0% 6.5%
PacifiCorp NA NM 94.4% 1.6% 12.1% 10.3% -0.7% 9.5% 0.6% 15.5% 21.0% 12.1% 17.6% 7.9% 6.0%
Natural gas pipelines NA 21.7% 25.8% 25.8% -23.2% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% -14.3% -52.1% -30.2% -6.6% -5.4% 36.1% 9.2%
U.K. ut ilities NA 9.7% -0.3% 0.6% -26.8% 2.5% 2.5% -43.3% -15.1% 7.5% -41.8% 19.8% -5.8% -15.6% 16.3%
Real est ate brokerage NA -50.0% -43.2% -207.1% -195.6% 3.0% 3.0% -31.6% 73.3% NM NM -52.8% 26.1% NM NM
Ot her NA 97.6% -46.9% 883.1% -98.0% 500.0% 0.0% NM NM -50.0% -97.8% NM NM 49.3% 394.0%
Total NA 47.6% 20.1% 58.0% -44.0% 11.8% 0.2% -36.1% 15.1% -15.0% -72.3% 26.6% -11.9% 9.5% 26.9%
(a) Net of noncontrolling interest and includes interest earned by Berkshire (net of relat ed income taxes).

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital estimates.

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Equity Research
Figure 68. Berkshire Hathaway Manufacturing, Service & Retail Segment Model
(In $ Mil) 2009 2010E
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Revenues:
Marmon $ - $ - $ - $5,529 $5,067 $4,805 $4,805 $1,254 $1,286 $1,306 $1,221 $1,125 $1,200 $1,260 $1,220
McLane 24,074 25,693 28,079 29,852 31,207 32,660 34,600 6,993 7,864 8,170 8,180 7,310 8,220 8,560 8,570
Shaw 5,723 5,834 5,373 5,052 4,011 3,795 3,800 1,003 1,029 1,056 923 915 965 1,010 905
Ot her Manuf acturing 9,260 11,988 14,459 14,127 11,926 11,815 12,420 2,632 2,975 3,244 3,075 2,550 2,890 3,300 3,075
Ot her Service 4,728 5,811 7,792 8,435 6,585 6,525 6,850 1,506 1,572 1,538 1,969 1,460 1,550 1,540 1,975
Ret ailing 3,111 3,334 3,397 3,104 2,869 2,900 3,075 657 657 641 914 660 660 650 930
Total revenues $46,896 $52,660 $59,100 $66,099 $61,665 $62,500 $65,550 $14,045 $15,383 $15,955 $16,282 $14,020 $15,485 $16,320 $16,675

Expenses:
Marmon - - - 4,796 4,381 4,135 4,120 1,092 1,116 1,112 1,061 973 1,038 1,082 1,042
McLane 23,857 25,464 27,847 29,576 30,863 32,316 34,235 6,850 7,798 8,106 8,109 7,170 8,152 8,492 8,502
Shaw 5,238 5,240 4,937 4,847 3,867 3,659 3,660 948 999 1,005 915 866 937 963 893
Ot her Manuf acturing 7,925 10,232 12,422 12,452 11,112 11,010 11,565 2,511 2,749 2,951 2,901 2,435 2,680 3,005 2,890
Ot her Service 4,399 5,153 6,824 7,464 6,676 6,515 6,830 1,492 1,648 1,543 1,993 1,460 1,550 1,535 1,970
Ret ailing 2,854 3,045 3,123 2,941 2,708 2,727 2,880 641 636 630 801 642 638 637 810
Total expenses 44,273 49,134 55,153 62,076 59,607 60,362 63,290 13,534 14,946 15,347 15,780 13,546 14,995 15,714 16,107

Pre-tax earnings:
Marmon - - - 733 686 670 685 162 170 194 160 152 162 178 178
McLane 217 229 232 276 344 344 365 143 66 64 71 140 68 68 68
Shaw 485 594 436 205 144 136 140 55 30 51 8 49 28 47 12
Ot her Manuf acturing 1,335 1,756 2,037 1,675 814 805 855 121 226 293 174 115 210 295 185
Ot her Service 329 658 968 971 (91) 10 20 14 (76) (5) (24) 0 0 5 5
Ret ailing 257 289 274 163 161 173 195 16 21 11 113 18 22 13 120
Total Pre-tax income 2,623 3,526 3,947 4,023 2,058 2,138 2,260 511 437 608 502 474 490 606 568
Income tax and minorit y int erest s 977 1,395 1,594 1,740 945 962 1,017 253 198 272 222 213 221 273 256
Net Income 1,646 2,131 2,353 2,283 1,113 1,176 1,243 258 239 336 280 261 270 333 312

% Chg. Revenue
Marmon -8.4% -5.2% 0.0% 373.2% -32.4% -30.5% -17.8% -10.3% -6.7% -3.5% -0.1%
McLane 6.7% 9.3% 6.3% 4.5% 4.7% 5.9% 0.1% 8.2% 7.0% 2.8% 4.5% 4.5% 4.8% 4.8%
Shaw 1.9% -7.9% -6.0% -20.6% -5.4% 0.1% -18.1% -23.0% -22.2% -18.6% -8.8% -6.2% -4.4% -2.0%
Ot her Manuf acturing 29.5% 20.6% -2.3% -15.6% -0.9% 5.1% -24.9% -25.1% -12.9% 5.0% -3.1% -2.9% 1.7% 0.0%
Ot her Service 22.9% 34.1% 8.3% -21.9% -0.9% 5.0% -29.2% -30.9% -26.6% 1.5% -3.1% -1.4% 0.1% 0.3%
Ret ailing 7.2% 1.9% -8.6% -7.6% 1.1% 6.0% -13.8% -11.0% -8.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 1.4% 1.8%
Total 12.3% 12.2% 11.8% -6.7% 1.4% 4.9% -5.5% -12.1% -8.3% -0.4% -0.2% 0.7% 2.3% 2.4%

Pre-tax Margin
Marmon 13.3% 13.5% 13.9% 14.3% 12.9% 13.2% 14.9% 13.1% 13.5% 13.5% 14.1% 14.6%
McLane 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 2.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Shaw 8.5% 10.2% 8.1% 4.1% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7% 5.5% 2.9% 4.8% 0.9% 5.4% 2.9% 4.7% 1.3%
Ot her Manuf acturing 14.4% 14.6% 14.1% 11.9% 6.8% 6.8% 6.9% 4.6% 7.6% 9.0% 5.7% 4.5% 7.3% 8.9% 6.0%
Ot her Service 7.0% 11.3% 12.4% 11.5% -1.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% -4.8% -0.3% -1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3%
Ret ailing 8.3% 8.7% 8.1% 5.3% 5.6% 6.0% 6.3% 2.4% 3.2% 1.7% 12.4% 2.7% 3.3% 2.0% 12.9%
Total operating margin 5.6% 6.7% 6.7% 6.1% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.6% 2.8% 3.8% 3.1% 3.4% 3.2% 3.7% 3.4%

% Chg. Pre-tax Earnings


Marmon -6.4% -2.3% 2.2% 478.6% -34.9% -21.5% NM -6.2% -4.7% -8.2% 11.3%
McLane 5.5% 1.3% 19.0% 24.6% 0.0% 6.1% 95.9% -2.9% -5.9% 6.0% -2.1% 3.0% 6.3% -4.2%
Shaw 22.5% -26.6% -53.0% -29.8% -5.6% 2.9% 7.8% -63.4% 4.1% -65.2% -10.9% -6.7% -7.8% 50.0%
Ot her Manuf acturing 31.5% 16.0% -17.8% -51.4% -1.1% 6.2% -73.2% -57.2% -38.7% -19.8% -5.0% -7.1% 0.7% 6.3%
Ot her Service 100.0% 47.1% 0.3% NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
Ret ailing 12.5% -5.2% -40.5% -1.2% 7.5% 12.7% -50.0% -27.6% 0.0% 24.2% 12.5% 4.8% 18.2% 6.2%
Total 34.4% 11.9% 1.9% -48.8% 3.9% 5.7% -39.5% -66.0% -45.4% -35.6% -7.3% 12.1% -0.3% 13.1%

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital estimates.

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Equity Research
Figure 69. Berkshire Hathaway Finance & Financial Products Segment Model
(In $ Mil) 2009 2010E
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Revenues:
Manufactured housing & finance $3,175 $3,570 $3,665 $3,560 $3,257 $3,160 $3,160 727 821 $872 $837 $705 $795 $845 $815
Furniture/transportation equipment leasing 856 880 810 773 661 595 565 173 167 164 157 150 150 150 145
Other 528 674 644 614 669 680 690 109 111 107 342 111 113 109 347
Total revenues 4,559 5,124 5,119 4,947 4,587 4,435 4,415 1009 1099 1,143 1,336 966 1,058 1,104 1,307

Expenses:
Manufactured housing & finance 2,759 3,057 3,139 3,354 3,070 2,980 2,980 685 774 819 792 665 750 795 770
Furniture/transportation equipment leasing 683 698 699 686 647 582 553 170 165 159 153 147 147 147 141
Other 295 212 275 120 89 100 100 27 25 23 14 33 27 23 17
Total expenses 3,737 3,967 4,113 4,160 3,806 3,662 3,633 882 964 1,001 959 845 924 965 928

Pre-tax earnings:
Manufactured housing & finance 416 513 526 206 187 180 180 42 47 53 45 40 45 50 45
Furniture/transportation equipment leasing 173 182 111 87 14 13 13 3 2 5 4 3 3 3 4
Other 233 462 369 494 580 580 590 82 86 84 328 78 86 86 330
Total pre-tax income 822 1,157 1,006 787 781 773 783 127 135 142 377 121 134 139 379
Income taxes and minority interest 308 425 374 308 287 271 274 49 53 50 135 42 47 49 133
Net income 514 732 632 479 494 502 509 78 82 92 242 79 87 90 246

% chg. revenue
Manufactured housing & finance 12.4% 2.7% -2.9% -8.5% -3.0% 0.0% -11.0% -12.4% -3.5% -7.2% -3.0% -3.2% -3.1% -2.6%
Furniture/transportation equipment leasing 2.8% -8.0% -4.6% -14.5% -10.0% -5.0% -8.9% -14.8% -17.2% -16.9% -13.3% -10.2% -8.5% -7.6%
Other 27.7% -4.5% -4.7% 9.0% 1.6% 1.5% -27.8% -34.7% -31.4% 149.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.5%
Total 12.4% -0.1% -3.4% -7.3% -3.3% -0.5% -12.9% -15.7% -9.1% 8.8% -4.3% -3.7% -3.4% -2.2%

Pre-tax margin
Manufactured housing & finance 13.1% 14.4% 14.4% 5.8% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.8% 5.7% 6.1% 5.4% 5.7% 5.7% 5.9% 5.5%
Furniture/transportation equipment leasing 20.2% 20.7% 13.7% 11.3% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 1.7% 1.2% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.8%
Other 44.1% 68.5% 57.3% 80.5% 86.7% 85.3% 85.5% 75.2% 77.5% 78.5% 95.9% 70.3% 76.1% 78.9% 95.1%
Total operating margin 18.0% 22.6% 19.7% 15.9% 17.0% 17.4% 17.7% 12.6% 12.3% 12.4% 28.2% 12.5% 12.7% 12.6% 29.0%

% chg. pre-tax earnings


Manufactured housing & finance 23.3% 2.5% -60.8% -9.2% -3.7% 0.0% -63.5% -45.3% NM -2350.0% -4.8% -4.3% -5.7% 0.0%
Furniture/transportation equipment leasing 5.2% -39.0% -21.6% -83.9% -7.1% -3.8% -83.3% -90.9% -80.0% -81.8% 0.0% 50.0% -40.0% 0.0%
Other 98.3% -20.1% 33.9% 17.4% 0.0% 1.7% -24.1% -41.1% -35.9% 200.9% -4.9% 0.0% 2.4% 0.6%
Total 40.8% -13.1% -21.8% -0.8% -1.0% 1.2% -47.3% -46.9% -12.9% 192.2% -4.7% -0.7% -2.1% 0.5%

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital estimates.

57
Equity Research
Figure 70. Berkshire Hathaway Consolidated Balance Sheet
In $ millions
ASSETS December 31,
Insurance & Other: 2009 2008
Cash & cash equivalents $27,917 $24,302
Investments:
Fixed Maturity Securities 32,523 27,115
Equity Securities 56,562 49,073
Other 28,980 18,419
Receivables 14,792 14,925
Inventories 6,147 7,500
Property, plant & equipment 15,720 16,703
Goodwill 27,614 27,477
Other 13,070 13,257
223,325 198,771
Utilities & Energy:
Cash & cash equivalents 429 280
Property, plant & equipment 30,936 28,454
Goodwill 5,334 5,280
Other 8,072 7,556
44,771 41,570
Finance & Financial Products:
Cash & cash equivalents 2,212 957
Investments in fixed maturity securities 4,608 4,517
Other investments 3,620 3,116
Loans & finance receivables 13,989 13,942
Goodwill 1,024 1,024
Other 3,570 3,502
29,023 27,058
Total Assets 297,119 267,399

LIABILITIES & SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY


Insurance & Other:
Losses & loss adjustment expenses 59,416 56,620
Unearned premiums 7,925 7,861
Life & health insurance benefits 3,802 3,619
Accounts payable, accruals & other liabilities 15,379 14,987
Notes payable and other borrowings 3,719 4,349
90,241 87,436
Utilities & Energy
Accounts payable, accruals & other liabilities 5,895 6,175
Notes payable & other borrowings 19,579 19,145
25,474 25,320
Finance & Financial Products
Accounts payable, accruals & other liabilities 2,514 2,656
Derivative contract liabilities 9,269 14,612
Notes payable & other borrowings 14,611 13,388
26,394 30,656
Income taxes, principally deferred 19,225 10,280
Total Liabilities 161,334 153,692

Shareholders' Equity:
Common stock 8 8
Capital in excess of par value 27,074 27,133
Accumulated other comprehensive income 17,793 3,954
Retained earnings 86,227 78,172
Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' equity 131,102 109,267
Noncontrolling interests 4,683 4,440
Total Shareholders' Equity 135,785 113,707
297,119 267,399
Source: Company data, Barclays Capital estimates.

58
Equity Research
Figure 71. Berkshire Hathaway Consolidated Statements of Earnings
December 31,
In $ millions 2009 2008
Revenues:
Insurance & Other:
Insurance earned premiums $27,884 $25,525
Sales and service revenues 62,555 65,854
Interest, dividend and other income 5,245 4,966
Investment gains/losses 251 1,166
Other-than-temporary impairment losses on investments (3,155) (1,813)
92,780 95,698
Utilities & Energy:
Operating revenues 11,204 12,668
Other 239 1,303
11,443 13,971
Finance & Financial Products:
Interest, dividend and other investment income 1,886 1,790
Investment gains/losses 67 7
Derivative gains/losses 3,624 (6,821)
Other 2,693 3,141
8,270 (1,883)
112,493 107,786
Costs & Expenses
Insurance & Other:
Insurance losses and loss adjustment expenses 18,251 16,259
Life & health insurance benefits 1,838 1,840
Insurance underwriting expenses 6,236 4,634
Cost of sales and services 52,647 54,103
Selling, general and administrative expenses 8,117 8,052
Interest expense 130 156
87,219 85,044
Utilities & Energy:
Cost of sales & operating expenses 8,739 9,840
Interest expense 1,176 1,168
9,915 11,008
Finance & Financial Products:
Interest expense 686 639
Other 3,121 3,521
3,807 4,160
100,941 100,212
Earnings before income taxes and equity method earnings 11,552 7,574
Income tax expense 3,538 1,978
Earnings from equity method investments 427 0
Net Earnings 8,441 5,596
Less; Earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests 386 602
Net earnings attributable to Berkshire Hathaway 8,055 4,994
Average common shares outstanding 1,551,174 1,548,960
Net earnings per share attributable to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders $5,193 $3,224
Source: Company data, Barclays Capital estimates.

59
Equity Research
Figure 72. Non-Life Insurance Universe
NON-LIFE INSURANCE SECTOR RATING: 2-NEUTRAL

52-Wk Mkt Price/


Price Price Cap Operating EPS % Change EPS Consensus EPS Div Tang BV Price/Stated BV P/E ROE
Company Ticker Rating 4/8/2010 Range (Bil) 09A 10E 11E 10/09 11/10 10E 11E Yield 4Q09 09A 10E 11E 09E 10E 11E 10E 11E

Commercial Lines & Reinsurance


Travelers TRV 1-Overweight $52.26 55 - 37 $30.6 $6.29 $6.25 $6.00 -1% -4% $5.75 $5.80 2.5% 1.16 0.99 0.89 0.81 8.3 8.4 8.7 11% 10%
ACE Limited ACE 1-Overweight 53.30 56 - 40 18.0 8.17 7.25 7.00 -11% -4% 7.10 7.41 2.3% 1.14 0.91 0.83 0.76 6.5 7.3 7.6 12% 10%
Arch Capital Group ACGL 1-Overweight 74.68 77 - 53 3.9 10.53 9.00 8.50 -14% -6% 7.87 8.91 0.0% 1.02 1.02 0.89 0.78 7.1 8.3 8.8 12% 10%
Partner Re PRE 1-Overweight 80.51 82 - 61 6.5 14.59 6.70 8.00 -54% 19% 6.82 10.01 2.3% 1.02 0.95 0.89 0.83 5.5 12.0 10.1 8% 9%
Everest Re RE 1-Overweight 81.51 93 - 65 4.8 12.51 7.75 10.50 -38% 4% 8.16 11.20 2.4% 0.79 0.79 0.75 0.69 6.5 10.5 7.8 7% 5%
Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B 2-Equal Weight 79.68 84 - 55 196.8 3.25 3.34 3.47 3% 4% 3.64 3.86 0.0% 1.91 1.41 1.27 1.18 24.5 23.8 23.0 6% 5%
Chubb CB 2-Equal Weight 51.67 54 - 38 17.0 6.14 4.70 5.00 -24% 6% 5.06 5.51 2.7% 1.13 1.10 1.03 0.96 8.4 11.0 10.3 10% 10%
OneBeacon OB 2-Equal Weight 16.58 18 - 10 1.6 1.90 1.40 1.00 -26% -29% 1.50 1.34 5.1% 1.10 1.10 1.06 1.06 8.7 11.8 16.6 9% 6%
Allied World Assurance AWH 2-Equal Weight 44.53 50 - 35 2.7 10.34 7.45 7.50 -28% 1% 7.07 7.49 1.8% 0.83 0.75 0.67 0.61 4.3 6.0 5.9 11% 10%
Aspen Holdings AHL 2-Equal Weight 28.67 29 - 20 2.3 5.16 2.80 3.50 -46% 25% 3.21 3.59 2.1% 0.84 0.84 0.76 0.69 5.6 10.2 8.2 8% 9%
XL Capital XL 2-Equal Weight 19.31 20 - 6 6.6 2.69 2.05 2.25 -24% 10% 2.21 2.49 2.1% 0.87 0.78 0.73 0.68 7.2 9.4 8.6 8% 8%
Montpelier Re MRH 2-Equal Weight 16.75 18 - 12 1.2 3.13 1.25 2.00 -60% 60% 1.43 2.30 2.1% 0.79 0.79 0.74 0.67 5.3 13.4 8.4 5% 8%
Flagstone Re FSR 2-Equal Weight 11.12 12 - 8 0.9 2.30 1.25 1.55 -46% 24% 1.52 1.76 1.4% 0.83 0.80 0.74 0.68 4.8 8.9 7.2 8% 10%
RenaissanceRe RNR 2-Equal Weight 57.01 58 - 43 3.4 12.25 5.80 7.25 -53% 25% 6.95 8.24 1.7% 1.15 1.10 1.00 0.90 4.7 9.8 7.9 11% 13%
Median -27% 5% 2.1% 1.02 0.93 0.86 0.77 6.5 10.0 8.5 9% 9%

Insurance Brokers
Aon Corp. AON 2-Equal Weight 43.18 43 - 35 11.5 3.11 3.25 3.60 4% 11% 3.31 3.67 1.4% NM 2.13 1.99 1.86 13.9 13.3 12.0 17% 17%
Marsh & McLennan MMC 3-Underweight 24.21 25 - 18 13.1 1.58 1.50 1.75 -5% 17% 1.73 1.96 3.3% NM 2.18 2.06 1.91 15.3 16.2 13.8 13% 15%
Willis Group WSH 3-Underweight 31.92 32 - 22 5.4 2.67 2.65 3.00 -1% 13% 2.66 3.00 3.3% NM 2.46 2.20 1.98 11.9 12.1 10.6 19% 20%
Arthur J. Gallagher AJG 3-Underweight 24.58 26 - 17 2.5 1.32 1.40 1.50 6% 7% 1.49 1.68 5.2% NM 2.83 2.89 2.92 18.6 17.5 16.4 16% 18%
Brown & Brown BRO 3-Underweight 18.10 20 - 16 2.6 1.08 1.10 1.20 2% 9% 1.09 1.19 1.7% NM 1.88 1.74 1.62 16.8 16.4 15.1 11% 11%
Median 0% 14% 2.3% 2.16 2.02 1.89 14.6 14.7 12.9 15% 16%

Personal Lines
The Hanover Group THG 1-Overweight 43.51 45 - 29 2.1 3.09 3.75 4.00 21% 7% 3.89 4.44 1.7% 0.94 0.87 0.82 0.77 14.1 11.6 10.9 7% 7%
Progressive PGR 2-Equal Weight 19.36 20 - 14 13.0 1.55 1.40 1.40 -10% 0% 1.45 1.55 0.0% 2.26 2.26 2.00 1.84 12.5 13.9 13.9 15% 14%
Allstate Corp. ALL 2-Equal Weight 33.10 33 - 21 17.8 3.48 3.75 3.50 8% -7% 3.91 4.26 2.4% 1.13 1.07 0.98 0.91 9.5 8.8 9.5 12% 10%
Median 8% 0% 1.7% 1.13 1.07 0.98 0.91 12.5 11.6 10.9 12% 10%

Multiline (a)
The Hartford HIG 2-Equal Weight 28.55 30 - 9 12.5 1.85 3.82 3.90 NA 2% 3.03 3.90 0.7% 1.13 0.73 0.68 0.63 15.4 7.5 7.3 8% 8%
Median NA 2% 0.7% 1.13 0.73 0.68 0.63 15.4 7.5 7.3 8% 8%

S&P 500 SPX 1,186.44 1192 - 815 $63.21 $60.18 $77.64 -4.8% 29.0% $60.18 $77.64 0.0% 18.8 19.7 15.3 NM NM
10 Yr Treasury US10YR 3.86 3.99 - 2.76

Note: S&P 500 EPS estimates are a bottom-up calculation of consensus earnings forecasts.
(a) Eric Berg is the lead analyst on HIG. The Life Insurance sector rating is 2-Neutral.

Source: Factset, Barclays Capital estimates.

Analyst Certification:
We, Jay Gelb, CFA, Daniel Ford, CFA and Gary Chase, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect
our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation
was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

Other Team Members:


Schaul, Erica (BCI, New York) 1.212.526.8190 erica.schaul@barcap.com
DeWitt, Sarah (BCI, New York) 1.212.526.9947 sarah.dewitt@barcap.com

Company Description:

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Equity Research

On September 20, 2008, Barclays Capital acquired Lehman Brothers' North American investment banking, capital markets, and private investment
management businesses. All ratings and price targets prior to this date relate to coverage under Lehman Brothers Inc.

Important Disclosures:
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B) US$ 80.49 (09-Apr-2010) 2-Equal Weight / 2-Neutral
Rating and Price Target Chart:

CHART IS NOT APPLICABLE

Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has been lead manager or co-lead manager of a publicly disclosed offer of securities of Berkshire
Hathaway Inc. in the previous 12 months.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker and/or liquidity provider in securities issued by Berkshire Hathaway Inc. or one of
its affiliates.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in the past
12 months.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Berkshire
Hathaway Inc. within the next 3 months.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc..
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation from Berkshire Hathaway Inc. within the
past 12 months.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is or during the past 12 months has been an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is or during the last 12 months has been a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays
Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.
Barclays Bank PLC is associated with specialist firm Barclays Capital Market Makers, which makes a market in Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
stock. At any given time, the associated specialist may have "long" or "short" inventory position in the stock; and the associated specialist
may be on the opposite side of orders executed on the Floor of the Exchange in the stock.
Valuation Methodology: We determine our price target for Berkshire Hathaway of $88 primarily by applying a price-to-book multiple of
1.30x (versus a historical average since 2000 of 1.59x) to our YE 2011 book value estimate of around $68. As a point of reference, our
price target valuation implies a price-to-tangible book multiple of 1.86x, versus a historical average since 2000 of 2.30x.
Risks Which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: There are several risks that could impede the achievement of our price
target for Berkshire Hathaway including managment succession, large and concentrated stock investments, derivative losses, earnings
volatility, catastrophe losses, M&A risk and regulatory risk.

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Equity Research
FOR CURRENT IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES REGARDING COMPANIES THAT ARE
THE SUBJECT OF THIS RESEARCH REPORT, PLEASE SEND A WRITTEN REQUEST TO:
BARCLAYS CAPITAL RESEARCH COMPLIANCE
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REFER TO publicresearch.barcap.com or call 1-212-526-1072

Important Disclosures Continued:


The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total
revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities.

Company Name Ticker Price Price Date Stock / Sector Rating


Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK.B US$ 80.49 09-Apr-2010 2-Equal Weight / 2-Neutral

Barclays Capital produces a variety of research products including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative
analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types
of research products, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.
Guide to the Barclays Capital Fundamental Equity Research Rating System:
Our coverage analysts use a relative rating system in which they rate stocks as 1-Overweight, 2-Equal Weight or 3-Underweight (see
definitions below) relative to other companies covered by the analyst or a team of analysts that are deemed to be in the same industry
sector (the “sector coverage universe”). Below is the list of companies that constitute the sector coverage universe:

ACE Limited (ACE) Allied World Assurance Co. (AWH)


Allstate Corp. (ALL) Aon Corporation (AOC)
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)
Aspen Insurance Holdings (AHL) Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO)
Chubb Corp. (CB) Everest Re Group (RE)
Flagstone Reinsurance Holdings Ltd. (FSR) Marsh & McLennan Cos. (MMC)
Montpelier Re Holdings (MRH) OneBeacon Insurance Group (OB)
PartnerRe Ltd. (PRE) Progressive Corp. (PGR)
RenaissanceRe Holdings (RNR) The Hanover Insurance Group (THG)
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) Willis Group Holdings Ltd. (WSH)
XL Capital Ltd. (XL)

In addition to the stock rating, we provide sector views which rate the outlook for the sector coverage universe as 1-Positive, 2-Neutral or
3-Negative (see definitions below). A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not the equivalent of our rating system.
Investors should carefully read the entire research report including the definitions of all ratings and not infer its contents from ratings alone.

Stock Rating
1-Overweight - The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-month
investment horizon.
2-Equal Weight - The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a
12- month investment horizon.
3-Underweight - The stock is expected to underperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a
12- month investment horizon.
RS-Rating Suspended - The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily due to market events that made coverage
impracticable or to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including when Barclays Capital is acting
in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.

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Equity Research
Sector View
1-Positive - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are improving.
2-Neutral - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are steady, neither improving nor deteriorating.
3-Negative - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are deteriorating.

Distribution of Ratings:
Barclays Capital Equity Research has 1453 companies under coverage.
42% have been assigned a 1-Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Buy rating; 47%
of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.
44% have been assigned a 2-Equal Weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating;
43% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.
12% have been assigned a 3-Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Sell rating; 33%
of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.

Barclays Capital offices involved in the production of Equity Research:


London
Barclays Capital, the investment banking division of Barclays Bank PLC (Barclays Capital, London)
New York
Barclays Capital Inc. (BCI, New York)
Tokyo
Barclays Capital Japan Limited (BCJL, Tokyo)
São Paulo
Banco Barclays S.A. (BBSA, São Paulo)
Hong Kong
Barclays Bank PLC, Hong Kong branch (BB, Hong Kong)

Toronto
Barclays Capital Canada Inc. (BCC, Toronto)

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Equity Research
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