The Binomial Model

Instead of asking how many trials it will take to achieve one success, we can also ask how many
successes we expect to see in a fixed number of Bernoulli trials.
The _____________________ tells us the probability that we will achieve a specific number of
successes in a fixed number of trials. The Binomial RV is always:
x=
The model is determined by two parameters: the number of trials (n) and the probability of success
(p) and is denoted: B(n, p).
Thus, the 4 conditions for a Binomial Model are:
1. There are a fixed number of trials (n)
2. There are only two possible outcomes on each trial (success or failure)
3. The probability of success (p) is the same on every trial.
4. The trials are independent. That is, knowing the results of previous trials doesnt change
the probability of future trials.
Suppose that 70% of the people in a mall make a purchase and 3 people in the mall are randomly
selected. Use a tree diagram to identify the 8 possible outcomes and their probabilities.

What is the probability that exactly 2 of the 3 shoppers will make a purchase?

Write out the complete probability model:

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Suppose that our class is the population and we are taking samples of size 3 to estimate = the true
mean hours of sleep for students last night.
x = Hours of sleep last night
x = average hours of sleep last night for 3 randomly selected students (sample mean)
The sampling distribution of x lists all possible values of x and how frequently they will occur.

Note: each possible statistic (range, median, proportion of males, etc.) has its own sampling
distribution

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A population of 5 people (and their score on the AP Exam) is shown below.

1. Adam (3)
2. Betty (4)
3. Carol (2)
4. Daniel (5)
5. Emily (4)
a. Suppose that a random sample of size 3 is chosen. List all 10 possible samples of size 3.

b. Graph the sampling distribution for the sample mean score, sample median score, and the proportion
of males for samples of size 3 from this population.

HW #7: Work on Textbook Activity

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How Many Textbooks?? (Project)

In this assignment, your job is to develop a method to estimate the total number of AP Statistics books
(or any other textbook) at our school based on a random sample of books and the assumption that the
books are numbered sequentially starting from 1.
For example, suppose a random sample of n = 7 books gives the following numbers: 10, 38, 59, 61, 74,
90, 94. How can you use this information to estimate the total number of books (N)? One possible
method would be to take the median value and double it. In this example, median 2 = 61 2 = 122.
Thus, our estimate for the total number of books is N = 122.
For this activity you will create three other statistics to estimate the total number of books. Remember, a
statistic is any quantity computed from the values in a sample. You may use any combination of the
summary statistics we already know (mean, median, min, max, quartiles, IQR, standard deviation, etc.)
or invent your own. The goal is to find a relatively simple statistic that reliably predicts the total number
of books.
To determine which of your three statistics gives the best predictions, you will perform a simulation to
generate sampling distributions for each of your three statistics. For the purposes of the simulation,
assume that there are 100 books total (N = 100) and that you will be taking samples of size 7 (n = 7).
For each run (do 25 runs), generate 7 random numbers from 1-100 and compute the values of each of
your three statistics.
What you need to turn in:
An introduction describing the choice of your 3 statistics
Three dotplots showing the sampling distributions for each of your statistics. Make sure they are
on the same scale so they can be easily compared.
A written description/comparison of the three distributions. Think: shape, center, spread
A description of which statistic you think is best and why.
Due __2/9 A and B day!!______ (one per group)
NOTE: ______to be announced_________ in class we will have
a competition to see which group has the best statistic. The
nominating order will be randomly selected and no statistic will
be allowed more than once. During each round of the
competition, I will secretly choose N and then give you a sample
of n numbers from 1-N. Each group will compute the value of
their statistic based on the sample of n numbers and the closest
estimate gets 3 points, the second closest gets 2 points, and the
third closest gets 1 point. After several rounds, the team with the
most points will get 10 extra credit points per member.

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Wednesday/Thursday February 4/5: Chapter 18: Modeling the Distribution of Sample

Proportions
PENNIES ACTIVITY
__________________________________________________________________________________
One of the major tasks of a statistician is to discover the proportion of individuals in a population who
possess a certain property or characteristic.
ex: p = proportion of all US residents who are unemployed
ex: p = proportion of all Hillcrest students with at least one AP class
Unfortunately, without conducting a census, we will never know the true value of p, the
_______________________________ (true proportion). Instead, statisticians will estimate p by taking
a sample and computing the _____________________________________, p .

p =

number of "successes" in the sample x

=
sample size
n

Note: since x is the number of successes, x is a binomial random variable

Suppose that 22% of registered voters in Arizona are senior citizens (that is, p = .22). If we were to take
a sample of size 100 and find the sample proportion of senior citizens ( p ), what values might we get?

What does the distribution of p look like?

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General Properties of the Sampling Distribution of a Sample Proportion:

Let p be the proportion of successes in a random sample of size n from a population whose proportion
of successes is p. Denote the mean value of the p distribution by p and the standard deviation of the

p distribution by p . Then,
1. p = p
2. p =

pq
n

np
=p
n
n
npq

npq
p = x =
=
=
n
n
n2

p =

pq
n

3. When n is large and p is not too close to 0 or 1, the sampling distribution of p is approximately
normal.
Conditions (for these properties to hold, the following must be true):
a. The data is from a random sample from population of interest
b. The sample is less than 10% of the population (so we can consider trials to be independent)
c. Large sample size: both np and nq are at least 10 (so the normal model is a good approximation
to the binomial)

Suppose that 43% of registered voters in Arizona are Democrats. What is the probability that there will
be less than 30% Democrats in a random sample of size 50?

If n = 50, what is the probability that the sample proportion will be within .05 of the true proportion?

How can we make this probability bigger?

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Note: If the large sample size condition isnt met (or if you just dont like the normal distribution), you
can still use the binomial distribution. However, in later chapters we will need to use the normal
approximation so we will use it whenever we can from now on.

HW #8: SR 412-419, problems page 432 (6, 8, 10, 11, 21, 23)

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Monday/Tuesday, February 9/10: Chapter 18: The Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean
Another one of the major tasks of a statistician is to discover the mean (average) of a certain variable in
a population.
ex: = mean income of US residents
ex: = mean reduction in cholesterol for patients using a new drug
Unfortunately, without conducting a census, we will never know the true value of , the
______________ _______________ (true mean). Instead, statisticians will estimate by taking a
sample and computing the __________________________________, x .
General Properties of the Sampling Distribution of a Sample Mean ( x ):
Let x denote the mean of the observations in a random sample of size n from a population having mean
x and standard deviation x . Denote the mean value of the x distribution by x and the standard
deviation of the x distribution by x . Then, the following rules hold:
1. x = x
2. x =

n
3. When the population distribution of x is normal, the sampling distribution of x is also normal
for any size n.
4. Central Limit Theorem: When n is sufficiently large, the sampling distribution of x is well
approximated by a normal curve, even when the population is not normal. HOW LARGE??
Conditions:
a. The data is from a random sample from population of interest
b. The sample is less than 10% of population (so selections can be considered independent)
c. Large sample size (n > 30) OR distribution of population approximately normal (so distribution
of x can be considered approximately normal)
Note: Rules 1 and 2 come from the rules for combining independent random variables:
( x + x +...+ x ) x + x + ... + x n x
x =
=
=
= x
n
n
n
( x + x +...+ x )
x2 + x2 + ... + x2
n x2
n x2
x2 x
x =
=
=
=
=
=
n
n
n
n2
n
n
On the internet
o Here is an applet where you can sample pennies:
statweb.calpoly.edu/chance/applets/SampleData/SampleData.html
o To explore other sampling distributions, try the following Applet:
http://onlinestatbook.com/rvls.html
Choose simulations/demo and then sampling distribution
o OR: http://interactivemaths.net/beta/
Go to Statistics and then to CLT.
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Suppose that the weights of apples are approximately normally distributed with a mean of 200 grams
and a standard deviation of 35 grams.
a. What is the probability that if you choose one apple at random, its weight is at least 220 grams?

b. What is the probability that if you choose 25 apples at random, the average weight is at least 220 g?

Suppose that the population of residents of local town has a mean annual income of $50,000 and a
standard deviation of $35,000. If a random sample of 100 town residents is selected, what is the
probability that their sample mean is within $5000 of the true mean?

What will happen to this probability if we increase the sample size?

HW #9: R 419-431, problems page 434 (22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 33, 34, 37, 39, 43, 47, 49, 50, 51, 52)
HW PACKET#7-9 due next time
Wednesday/Thursday, February 11/12: How Many Textbooks? The Competition!!
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Friday/Tuesday February 13/17: Test Chapters 17-18

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