) Similarly, number of failures, F, is binomial with n = 1000, and
a
P= 4g) = 15 + (.60)(.10) + (.60)(.70)(.05) = .231
Then E[F] = np = 231, WF) = np(i—p) = 177.639
afd re
6 g Qa B= OP
0 1000 150 250
1 600 60 120
2 420 2 63
3 336 _o 33.6
| 231 166.6
@ fay = ‘eens _ 231
fi2) = Seales iar Bar isae
graduates _ 1000 ~ 231 ~ 466.6 _
£0) To00 S000 «8024
(b) fii |k=2)- Prk =2) = Pritermination atk = 2 via mode j)
Then fl | k= 2) = $8 25 and fy(2 | k # =.
Of course f(3 |k = 2) 5 0.LL
Chapter 10 ae
= g-exp\— fp 2 rater ie a
7. (@ From(10.4.1), 6°= @ oo f 2) + a! 04] =a oo fo + >) 4]
eee 5 | = (@-ne*
1 1
o_ [| Mma = og = et eel
@) f Oe Hy Oat f ent de € e
;
© Mya = fe
[eon = [
1 1
- [era
lo
= (@-ne* — @-x- Nett = et ert
= -@-x-Newt
= (a—x-eF— @-x-2Dert
: (r) 7 2y
8. Again, £? = 1000 ex -[ c+
gain, £7 Ah Cares
= 1000 exp[—cx-+ in (2-#)-m a]
OH — OD. = MG
ay af i uO — Gre — Pu
9 @ &a -E = mS”
(@)
BHP - xe) of 0
= 7a = pou |
oP
» da = $2
Of- Ou + Guol - [BO - A] — PuPoy
= oy
= gl we + Lao + (2 ~ 2) xe) |
nO + a? uC) — wR) a
O-8,
© ga = g2a% = blasro] = to74
u.
12.
Chapter 10
= ie ool ty log “|
1 — exp| 8 tog.60] = .17433
vi 2
1- eio| 3 t.00| = 27332
i eo| 35 te.70 = 11210
1s eo| 3 ie. = 21163
i eo| $ tog. 80] = .05426
te eo| 33 1.80] 15410
40= @ = 0
g%= @ = .0
@ gO = 1- pM = 1 hoe Ly ge
a fo Pe ww at clo we at
om = Rea =~ Pa = *
he ew a
© @= [emo - = of’ oa
fb
Let each decrement be uniformly distributed. Then the total is so distributed, so
PO UPD = @?, and
o
mf
wy 4 Ma
® mf 34 =o, o @® =
(b) Likewise, pn) = a, leading tom? = oe
1-30
& &
© @= wp = 2 Bale if all decrements are uniform, so q?
Assuming a uniform distribution for decrement (j) only, (i.
of Chapter 3),
, in the single decrement mode!Chapter 10
a wo _ dy.
13. As shown by (10.5.3), @ > q. Now my’ = 5 in the single decrement model for
decrement (j), whereas gi = &. Since wP() > 0, Ly < &, 80m > 9.
Therefore, mi, > 4 > q?
14. pig? = 1 — dg? = 98, and pig? = 1 - dp = 96.
Then gf) = 1 - pQ = 1- p+ pip? = 1 — (98.96) = .0592
ni A
5. @ d=—P— = (under UDD), so p°? = 7p Pa”
1+ mg
o@.10 2m 4
Then pg” = Ty 80g = Tr = 09091
ay
(b) By assuming UDD in the single decrement tables, 1{)(0) em
=e
q (2)
Bo = sy. Then WYO = HOO + HOO = — ay tT
1g
1 g@
to = fi-ed?] (1-
-f Getr na| = [t #49] (1-1, Then
o Li enQeo at
m= 20 = 28
So Pag
1 + gi — 246 ¢| ae
fi ela,
+ 9g 1@) 27
= 20,s0g2 = 22 = 0906
Tony + $0 dan
95 - % ao 98
576 - Chapter 10
16. Under the assumption, m?
o
o %
byes te ~ ~
I-79}
17. First we find p® == [! 5 ¢°| [! = 4°] [! _ «|
Thus, p= .76048, gi) = .23952
PQ = 85027, g = .14973
Pe = 82115, gf) = .17885
Then g = fa = — 87478166 np)
de = 01767, 92 = .02665; 4 = .19520
Similarly, gf) = 02054; gf = .03193; gf = .09726
gee = 02578; gf) = .03705; gq = .11603
18. The result is direct, so no “solution” need be illustrated. The purpose of the exercise is to show
the closeness of results to those of Exercise 16.
19. @ 1, ~ m® is justified by the constant force assumption.
a a
ya» if decrements are uniformly
Ge 1-3-4
distributed in both the single decrement tables and the multiple decrement model.
0 ol
2
@ 4 [i aaa 4° 2 [ — a| | which in turn implies
(b) Accepting that m{ = m, then
(©) Clearly this leads tog!” = orto
)
Afr —b og? 4 3g?) = 0? org? we
Ie Ba +A Ie Ge TAQ gh
alae ~ 4%kL
n
02073, etc.
1052
} (.02052)
= .02073, ete.
21. (a) There is no justification for this relationship. 4! = ay assuming UD in the
mi
multiple decrement model.
) i Ode = LO % wr Li go (if@isupD) = &- 3-19 -mi,
ict ee
@
so zolt + zen? we O,and 1
5 (ACCEPTABLE)
1
(©) We know q( = f POO de = f Pe POM de
6
1
[ ive .9)|q4 de , under the stated assumptions
b
(ACCEPTABLE)
:
2 [Si wg? = Ka, then [/ POW) ds = Ky
lo
Differentiating both sides with respect to ¢, we find
POLO = Ky wu, of WO = Kj WOO, as required
[ Dus) ds
FSi: LHS. of Gi) = 1-49 = eros _ S24 (trom Gp)
a oye = {1- a?"
[esa pf = {o}* from (ii);
RLS. of (iii)
HOC), as required8
23.
25.
26.
21.
Chapter 10
uP = Kyl, then p-
POWs) ds = Ky f PP UP) ds,
PQ) = Kj Pu for allt
Thus
or gf! = Kj-., as required.
(@ Tand J are independent if and only if fred) = fri), that is, if and only if
PP uhO = HPO ( f #120) at.
Cancel ,p‘” from both sides above to obtain the desired result.
0) BO = Prt, >) = PRT, > tand T, > 0)
= Sn,1,(6.0) = S1,O5r,0) (indep. of T, 72)
=e Wea
Now replace y{(s) by Kju{(s) from part (a) and the result is finished.
Alll results are direct, so no “solution” is illustrated.
If each decrement is UDD, then so is the total (r).
om - 242. a89 ®
wo = = ath 2 e
l-tq l-tqg
i
and pPC/2) = ——tray = my as established in Exercise 12,
7 24s
(a) Equation (10.6.3) allows us to express q® in terms of the three ¢{, from which q, can
be obtained. Construction of the table from a set of ¢”” has already been explored.
o a
, g
(b) Here we would solve for g, using 9," = = id
4 % 1-52] 1 see
[This relationship was developed in Exercise 19.)
Having all g? establishes the multiple decrement table.
Pine eeChapter 10 9
28 ow decrement 3.has been changed from Example 10.6.2, so we still have qf = .03723, and
= .01843 from Example 10.6.2. In this problem, however, 49 = 1.
To = = 1-qQ-@ = 94434.
29. 1000 _, g00
+t
50 200 51
Since d2 = q® . 2 = 200 withdraw immediately following age 50, only 800 persons begin the
interval (50, 51). Since &? = .06 dg) = 12 die, then geo 22 = .015. Note that, since no
one can withdraw during the year of age, we really have a single decrement (death only) model.
800
30, We seek the probability of termination for cause 1 or 3, or no termination at all (j.¢., survival to
age 65).
© 0 ©
as — 50 + «0
_@
1-45 = _a-@
Prob = 45g) + sq) + asp
31. (a) One way is to use the relations m? = m,? r= =1,2
mi? rem, and then gy’ = 7 = 3,4. The advantage of getting all four
1+ fem?
‘
9 is to produce p°” from p = TI (1 - 4°). Then the q? are obtained from the
ii
,® by assuming UDD for each single decrement.
cs
K
©) adh? = af? - x? = if wwe yde = 1 -
Ps
aI80 Chapter 10
32. Reasoningly, q” is smaller that the “real rate” (or net probability) because of the operation of the
other decrements. ¢,” is the probability of falling to cause (/), if only it could occur, up to age
X+1. It is reduced by the probability of falling to (7) before (x + 1) after leaving for another
cause. This nets to the probability of falling to (/) while in the group, which is the probability
represented by @!”, More formally, the given identity is the case t= 1 of the more general
relation
e- G+ > [ POUL) dO, ds = 0.
gf Jo
Let F(p) denote the LHS of this equation. The student can verify that
FO = Wod-a?) - Poa-4.)+ > Hi POU) Arq? OAs,
ky
which can be seen to reduce to w? (0) -—F(), so that p(t) Fl) +F'() =0, fort > 0. Ibis also
clear that F(0) = 0. Thus we have an initial value problem in differential equations, whose unique
solution is F(®) = 0, fort > 0, which establishes the desired relationship.
33. @ @ wi? < pi, for