OPINIONLEAD

January5,2016

Nonalignmenttomultialignment

M.K.Narayanan

PrimeMinisterNarendraModiwithPakistanPrimeMinisterNawazSharif.Photo:Twitter/@PIB_India
IndiasforeignpolicyhasfinallyriditselfofColdWartrappingsinfavourofawiderengagementwithworldpowers.ButoneColdWar
erarealityremains:whenitcomestoPakistan,onecouldntbecarefulenough.
DecemberhasbeenasignificantmonthforIndiaandIndiandiplomacy.Thiswasnotlimitedmerelytodefenceacquisitions,butalso
includednewinitiativesontheforeignpolicyfront.
Ifanythingremainedoftheconceptofnonalignment,IndiasoutreachtobothColdWarantagonists,inDecember,appearedtosignalits
finaldemise.NonalignmentservedIndiawellduringthedifficultyearsfromthemidtothelate20thcentury,buthadapparentlyoutlivedits
utility.Thetimehadpossiblycometosounditsrequiem,andIndiadidjustthatinDecember.
SeveralreasonscanbeadducedforIndiasshiftfromnonalignmenttomultialignment.Undeniably,policiesadoptedbyIndiasincethe
beginningofthiscenturyhadhelpedgenerateaclimateoftrustacrossthespectrumofwarringnationsandlongtimeantagonists.Aspiritof
accommodationandconstructivesolutionstomajorregionalandinternationalchallengeshadalsomadeIndiamoreacceptabletomost
nations.TheIndiaU.S.CivilNuclearAgreementinthefirstdecadeofthiscenturywasinthisrespecttrulythegamechanger.Indiacameto
beseenasapositive,stabilisinginfluenceasfarastheglobalandtheregionalenvironmentwasconcerned.Nonalignmentclearlyhadno
placeinthismilieu.
DeepeningIndiaU.S.ties
Itwas,hence,notdifficultforDefenceMinisterManoharParrikar,withinthecourseofafewhoursofdiscussionwithhiscounterpartduring
hisvisittotheUnitedStatesinDecember,toenhancethequalityoftheirdefencedialogueandstrengthenthedefenceengagementbetween
thetwocountries.OutcomesfromthisvisitoftheDefenceMinisterarecertaintofurtherenlargethescopeofthealreadyboomingdefence
relationship.Amongthemoresignificanttakeawaysare:theprogressmaderegardingthejointworkinggroupsonbothaircraftcarrier
technologyandjetenginetechnologytheapprovalsgivenforadditionalnumbersofBoeingP8Imaritimepatrolaircraft,C17Globemaster
IIIstrategicairliftaircraft,andM777ultralighthowitzerstheprogressachievedregardinglongdeferredfoundationalagreementssuchas
CISMOA(CommunicationsandInformationSecurityMemorandumofAgreement)andtheLogisticsSupportAgreement(LSA),andafurther
strengtheningofthepartnershiponhightechnologyundertheDefenceTechnologyandTradeInitiative(DTTI).
ReaffirmingtieswithRussiaandJapan
DuringthissamemonthofDecember,PrimeMinisterNarendraModitookoffforRussiatoreaffirmthestronglinksthatexistbetweenthe
twonations.StatementsmadeontheoccasionrevealthedeterminationonbothsidestoreinforcethestrategictiesthatdatebacktotheCold
Waryears.Few,however,expectedthatthevisitwouldalsoresultinRussiaregainingitspositionasIndiasprincipaldefencesupplier.
ThelistofagreementsdrawnupinMoscowcoversnuclear,space,energyanddefence.Russiahascommitted[earlier]tobuildingadditional
nuclearreactorsatKudankulam(TamilNadu)andinAndhraPradesh.Intermsofconventionalenergy,Indiahassecuredabouquetofdeals,
includinga10percentstakeinRussianoilcompanyRosneft,andcommitmentsregardingapossiblestakeinanotherfieldinEastSiberia.In
theareaofdefencemanufacturing,bothsideshavepulledoutallthestops.AgreementwasreachedwithregardtocoproductionofKamov
226Tutilityhelicopters(thebulkofwhichwouldbebuiltinIndia),andthepossibilityofsecuring48MI17V5mediumlifthelicopters,S400

Triumf/Triumphmissilesystemsandstealthfrigates.
JapanesePrimeMinisterShinzoAbesvisittoIndia,alsoduringthesamemonth,meantime,provedtobemorethanastrategicinterlude,
withdefence,foreignpolicy,andeconomicaspectsallreceivingattention.Japanswillingnesstocooperateonpeacefulnuclearenergywill
havethesamekindofpositiveimpactasthatwhichfollowedtheiconicIndiaU.S.civilnuclearagreementof2008.Japanswillingnessto
acknowledgeIndiaasareliableandtrustworthynuclearpower(despitenotbeingasignatorytotheNuclearNonProliferationTreaty)is
againcertaintohaveapositiveimpactonnuclearestablishmentsacrosstheworld.
Japanswillingnesstosharedefenceequipmentandtechnology,facilitatetheexchangeofclassifiedmilitaryinformation,andarriveatan
understandingofemergingthreatsintheIndoPacificimplicitintheIndiaJapanAgreementwithregardtofreedomofnavigationinthe
SouthChinaSeahasopenedanewchapterinrelations.Thiswasfurtherbuttressedbytheprovisionoffinancialandtechnicalaidfora
highspeedraillinkbetweenMumbaiandAhmedabad,inadditiontooverseasdevelopmentalassistanceforvariousprojectsacrossIndia.Mr.
Abesaffirmation,thatnootherbilateralrelationshipintheworldhasthekindofpotentialwhichtiesrelationsbetweenIndiaandJapan,was
clearlynohyperbole.
ThePakistanpuzzle
OnthereturntripfromRussia,PrimeMinisterModipaidavisittoAfghanistanwhereheinauguratedthenewAfghanParliamentbuilding
(builtwithIndianaid).Makingastirringspeechontheoccasion,hecomplimentedAfghanistansdeterminationtostanduptoterrorfrom
acrosstheborder,andcriticisedattemptsmadetounsettleAfghanistanthroughtheuseofterrortactics.EnroutetoDelhifromKabul,the
PrimeMinistermadeanimpromptustopoverinLahoretowishPakistanPrimeMinisterNawazSharifonhisbirthday.Thisevoked
euphoricheadlinesintheIndianmedia.Noteveryone,however,sawthisasheraldinganewchapterinIndiaPakistanrelations,withlong
timePakistanwatcherswellawarethatthepathtoPakistansperfidyisusuallypavedwithgoodintentionsonIndiaspart.
TherealmotiveunderlyingthePrimeMinistersvisittoPakistanremainsunclear.Mr.ModiiswellawarethatPakistanhasgivenno
indicationwhatsoeverofhavingchangeditsspots.OnlyafewhourspriortotheLahorevisit,hehadimplicitlywarnedAfghanistanofthe
threatposedbyPakistan.LessthanafortnightagowhileaddressingtheCombinedCommandersConferenceonboardINSVikramaditya,the
PrimeMinisterhadstruckasombrenote,warningthatweseeterrorismandceasefireviolationsrecklessnuclearbuildupandthreats
bordertransgressionsandcontinuingmilitarymodernisationinourneighbourhood.Allthisleaveslittleroomforanyonetothinkthatthe
PrimeMinisternurturesanyillusionofachangeofheartonPakistanspart.Itwould,hence,beunrealistictothinkthathewashopingto
removetheobstaclesthatstoodinthewayofareconciliationbetweenthetwocountrieswiththisgrandgesture.Mr.Modiisalsowellaware
thattherecanbenosubstituteforhardnegotiations,ortheneedforagreatdealofeffort,tonarrowthegapbetweenthetwocountries.
Therealdangeristhatitcouldlullthenationintoafalsesenseofcomplacencyandsecurityonaccountofthecircumstancessurroundingthis
suddenmove.AnymistakenstepasfarasPakistanisconcernedneedstobeavoided.Pakistanispresentlygoingthroughaverypromising
phaseinitsturbulenthistory,andisbeingwooedbybothChinaandtheU.S.Itdoesnot,however,showanysignsthatithasreducedits
animositytowardsIndia.
ThepotentialbenefitsfromtheChinaPakistanEconomicCorridorareexpectedtosubstantiallyimprovePakistanseconomicfortunes.The
U.S.,inthemeantime,appearstohavereversedsomeofthepoliciesithadadoptedafter2013,andisdemonstratingahigherdegreeof
sensitivitytoPakistansconcerns.ItisatpresentactivelycourtingPakistaninviewofitsstrategiclocationvisvisAfghanistanandCentral
Asia.ThesaleofadditionalF16fighteraircraft,andcontinuationoftheCoalitionSupportFundbeyond2016reflectthis.ReportedU.S.
supporttofacilitatingprojectsinPakistanoccupiedKashmir,U.S.supportforasustaineddialoguebetweenIndiaandPakistantoresolveall
outstandingterritorialandotherdisputes,includingKashmir,andareferencetoworkingtogethertoaddressmutualconcernsofIndiaand
PakistanregardingterrorisminthejointstatementissuedfollowingthevisitofMr.ShariftoWashingtoninOctober,wellreflectsome
currentrealities.Thiscannotbeviewedasmerestrawsinthewind.
ItwouldthusbeprematuretooffercongratulationsonanendyearbreakthroughinIndiaPakistanrelations.Instead,thereisneedfor
greatervigilandmorecarefulthoughtonwhatneedstobedonesoastopreventaKargiltypesituation,exploitingthecurrenteuphoria,from
takingplace.
(M.K.NarayananisformerNationalSecurityAdviserandformerGovernorofWestBengal.)