4
3
2
1
0
-1
Sep-15
Jan-15
FR 10-yr (%)
Mei-15
Sep-14
Mei-14
Jan-14
Sep-13
Mei-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
Mei-12
Jan-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
Mei-11
Sep-10
Mei-10
-2
Jan-10
Source: Bloomberg
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
CPI (%)
20
18
Source: Bloomberg
500
16
14
400
12
300
10
8
200
6
4
100
FR 10-yr (%)
Des-15
Jul-15
Feb-15
Sep-14
Apr-14
Nop-13
Jun-13
Jan-13
Agust-12
Mar-12
Okt-11
Mei-11
Des-10
Jul-10
Feb-10
Sep-09
Apr-09
Nop-08
Jan-08
Jun-08
14,000
3000
12,000
2000
1000
8,000
0
6,000
-1000
4,000
Trade Balance
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
-3000
Jul-09
0
Jan-10
-2000
Jul-08
2,000
Macro Consensus
Market consensus shown by the table below explains that Indonesia will grow for around 5.2% y-o-y,
which is still very good. Inflation figure is predicted to be around 5%, leaving 2.25% spread with
current BI rate. Market predicts that there will be another rate cut in second semester of 2016, while
we expect it will happen in second quarter of 2016.
Indicator
Economic Activity
Real GDP (YoY%)
CPI (YoY%)
Unemployment (%)
External Balance
Curr. Acct. (% of GDP)
Fiscal Balance
Budget (% of GDP)
Interest Rates
Central Bank Rate (%)
3-Month Rate (%)
2-Year Note (%)
10-Year Note (%)
Exchange Rates
USDIDR
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
7.70
10.30
8.40
4.70
4.90
8.00
6.40
5.10
7.30
6.20
5.40
6.00
4.00
5.60
6.40
5.00
6.40
5.90
4.70
6.40
6.00
5.20
5.00
6.00
5.50
5.00
5.80
0.00
1.80
0.70
0.20
-2.70
-3.30
-3.10
-2.10
-2.30
-2.40
-1.20
-0.90
-2.10
-2.00
-1.50
-2.50
-2.10
-2.40
-2.30
-2.20
9.25
12.13
11.42
11.89
6.50
7.06
7.66
10.06
6.50
6.64
5.87
7.61
6.00
5.27
5.16
6.03
5.75
5.02
4.48
5.19
7.50
7.84
7.64
8.45
7.75
7.17
7.49
7.80
7.50
8.86
8.61
8.74
7.10
7.89
11,120
9,404
8,996
9,069
9,793
12,171
12,388
13,788
8.47
14,600
14,490
The gross issuance of government bonds in 2016 will be slightly lower (6% lower from last years
figure). Hence, we do not see oversupply of government bonds although government is boosting
infrastructure projects this year. In conclusion, we believe this is the right time to collect bonds while
keeping an eye of deterioration happening in China.
Source: Bloomberg
10,000
Jan-09
16,000
Jan-08