Chapter 19: Climate

Disruption and Ozone

Depletion
Presentation by: Carley Braunstein

19-1 How Might the Earths Temperature and Climate

Change in the Future?

Considerable scientific evidence indicates that

the earths atmosphere is warming, because of a
combination of natural effects and human
activities, and that this warming is likely to lead to
significant climate disruption during this century.

Weather and Climate Are

Not the Same:
Weather is short term
changes.
Can be described by
temperature, air
pressure,
precipitation, and
wind on any given day.

Climate is average
conditions in a
particular area over a
long period of time.
Can be described by
temperature and
precipitation.

Climate Change Is Not

New:
Climate change over time has resulted from:

Change in the sun's output of energy

Impacts by large meteorites

Slight changes in the Earth's orbit

Global air circulation patterns

Global ice cover

Varying concentrations of gases that make up the atmosphere

And now climate change results from human activities

The Climate and Our Lives, and

Economies Depend on the Natural
Greenhouse Effect:
Greenhouse gases absorb heat radiated by the
earth. The gases then emit infrared radiation that
warms the atmosphere.
Without the natural greenhouse effect the earth
would be cold and uninhabitable.
The natural greenhouse effect warms the lower
atmosphere and surface.

Human Activities Emit Large

Quantities of Greenhouses Gases:
Since the Industrial Revolution...

The presence of greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 has

increased in the lower atmosphere.

Rising CO2 and CH4 correlates with rising global

temperatures

Main sources: agriculture, deforestation, and burning of fossil

fuels

N2O levels have also risen as a result of increased use of

nitrous fertilizers.

Human Activities Play a Key Role

in Recent Atmospheric warming:
The earths lower atmosphere is warming, especially since 1960, due
primarily to increased concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.
Most of the increase in concentrations of these gases since 1960 is due to
human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuel and deforestation.
These human induced changes in the chemical composition and the
temperature of the atmosphere are beginning to change earths climate
If greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, the earth will likely
experience atmospheric warming and climate disruption.
Rapid and significant climate disruption will likely cause ecological,
economic and social disruption by degrading food and water supplies and
terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, flooding low-lying costal communities
and cities and eliminating many of earths species.

Melting of an Alaskan Glacier over 50 years.

CO2 Emissions Play an

Important Role:
CO2 plays an important role in determining
average temperature of the atmosphere.
Burning of fossil fuels and deforestation alter the
amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.
An increase in CO2 causes an increase in
temperature.

Waste Heat Also Plays a

Role in Climate Disruption:
Use of carbon containing fossil fuels and biofuels
produces the greenhouse gas CO2 and also adds waste
heat directly to the atmosphere.
When heat is added to the environment we can not
recycle any of this heat into high quality energy due to
the second law of thermodynamics.
Improving energy efficiency will reduce the amount of
waste heat and helps reduce the threat of climate
disruption.

What Role Does the Sun

Play?
Most of the rise in average global temperatures
can not be the result of increased solar input.
Instead the solar output of the sun has declined
for servers like decades.

What Role Do Oceans Play in

Projected Climate Disruption?
Oceans absorb CO2 from the atmosphere as a
part of the carbon cycle.
However, oceans are warming which inhibits their
ability to absorb CO2.
Increasing levels of CO2 increase the acidity of
the ocean. This acidity threatens oceanic
ecosystems.

There is Uncertainty about the Effects

of Cloud Cover on Atmospheric
Warming:
Warmer temperatures will increase evaporation and
essentially create clouds which can warm or cool the
atmosphere.
Thick clouds at low altitudes could decrease surface
warming while thin clouds at high altitudes could
increase surface warming.
Climate modelers are working hard to understand
more about the role of clouds in their climate models.

Outdoor Air Pollution Can Temporarily

Slow Atmospheric Warming:
Human activities play a role in atmospheric
warming. However there is evidence that aerosol
air pollution from human activities has slowed
the rate of atmospheric warming.
We could probably slow down projected climate
disruption by increasing outdoor air pollution.

19-2 What Are Some Possible

Effects of a Warmer Atmosphere?

The projected rapid change in the atmosphere's

temperature could have severe and long-lasting
consequences, including increased drought and
flooding, rising sea levels, and shifts in the
locations of crop lands and wildlife habitats.

Enhanced Atmospheric Warming

Could Have Serious Consequences:
Climate scientists are concerned not only about how much the
temperature might change, but also about how rapidly the change
occurs.
Climate change will determine where we can grow food and how
much of it we can grow, which areas will suffer from drought and
flooding, in what areas people and many forms of wildlife can live.
Ecosystems may collapse flooding, drought, wildfires, dustbowls,
the drying of rivers and the melting of glaciers.
Climate change must be viewed as a serious threat to global
security.

Severe Drought Is Likely

to Increase:
Prolonged drought now affects at least 30% of the earths
land.
In 50 years up to 45% of the worlds area could be
experiencing extreme drought.
As droughts increase and spread the growth of plants
declines which reduces the removal of CO2 from the
atmosphere.
As land dries out wildfires are also projected to increase.

More Ice and Snow Are

Likely to Melt:
Climate models project that climate change will be the most severe
in the worlds polar regions.
As melting occurs the surface becomes less reflective and absorbs
more solar energy which causes the poles to warm faster. This will
cause atmospheric warming.
Arctic temperatures have risen twice as fast as the rest of the world.
Mountain glaciers are also melting and about 99% of Alaskan
glaciers are shrinking.
Glaciers play a vital role in the water cycle. Water shortages
threaten billions of people.

Permafrost Is Likely to Melt:

Another Dangerous Scenario
The amount of carbon locked up as CH4 (methane) in
permafrost soils is 50-60 times the amount emitted as
carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels each year. If
permafrost melts large amounts of CH4 and CO2 will be
released into the atmosphere, it will accelerate projected
climate disruption.
Layers of permafrost have been referred to as "methane
time bombs".
The melting of permafrost would result in rapid,
catastrophic climate change.

Sea Levels Are Rising:

The worlds average sea level is predicted to rise 3-7 feet by the
end of this century.
This rise is due to the expansion of seawater as it warms and due
to the melting of land based ice.
Severe reductions in greenhouse gas emissions might prevent
such such a rapid, catastrophic rise in sea level.
Possible effects include: degradation/ destruction of costal
estuaries, wetlands and coral reefs; disruption of worlds costal
fisheries; flooding and erosion of islands and coastlines; flooding
of agricultural lowlands and deltas; contamination of freshwater
resources; submersion of islands; flooding of large costal cities.

If the average sea level rises by 1 meter the

areas shown here in red will be flooded.

Extreme Weather Is Likely

to Increase in Some Areas:
Atmospheric warming will cause severe drought
and heat waves in some areas. This could result in
the deaths of a large number of people, reduced
crop production and expand deserts.
Other areas will experience increased flooding
from heavy and prolonged snow or rainfall.
Atmospheric warming could increase the strength
of storms and hurricanes.

Climate Disruption Is A
Threat to Biodiversity:
Projected climate disruption is likely to upset ecosystems, decrease
biodiversity, and degrade ecosystem services.
Approximately 30% of the land-based plant and animal species could
disappear if the average global temperature change exceeds 2.7-4.5 F.
This percentage could grow to 70% if temperature change exceeds 6.3
F.
Especially vulnerable ecosystems are coral reefs, the arctic, polar seas,
costal wetlands, high elevation mountain tops and alpine and arctic
tundra.
Slowing the rate of projected climate change would help to sustain
the earths biodiversity, which in turn supports us and our economies.

Agriculture Could Face an

Overall Decline:
Modern agriculture accounts for 1/3 of the
atmospheric warming that has taken place since 1960.
Farmers will face dramatic changes due to shifting
climates and a faster hydrologic cycle.
By 2050, some 200-600 million of the worlds poorest
and most vulnerable people could face starvation and
malnutrition due to the effects of projected climate
disruption.

A Warmer World Is Likely to

Threaten the Health of Many People:
More frequent and prolonged heat waves in some areas will
increase numbers of deaths and illnesses, especially people in
poor health and the urban poor who can not afford air
conditioning.
Hunger and malnutrition will increase in areas where
agricultural production drops.
A warmer world creates ideal conditions for insects, microbes,
toxic molds and fungi.
There will likely be more pollution related deaths from heart
ailments and respiratory problems.

19-3 What Can We Do to Slow

Projected Climate Disruption?
To slow the projected rate of atmospheric
warming and climate disruption, we can increase
energy efficiency, sharply reduce greenhouse gas
emissions, rely more on renewable energy
resources, and slow population growth.

Dealing With Climate

Disruption Is Difficult:
Many scientists argue that our most urgent priority is to do all we can to
avoid any and all climate tipping points thresholds beyond which
natural systems can change irreversibly. Once we reach such a point,
there is no going back.
Many believe that climate change is one of the most urgent scientific,
political, economic, and ethical issues that humanity faces.
The following characteristics of this complex problem make it difficult to
tackle: the problem is global, the problem is a long term political issue,
the projected harmful and beneficial impacts of climate disruption are
not spread evenly, many propose solutions, such as sharply reducing or
phasing out the use of fossil fuels, are controversial, and finally a growing
number of social scientists contend that humans are not hardwired to
respond to long-term threats.

Possible Climate Change

Tipping Points:
Atmospheric carbon level of 450 ppm
Melting of all arctic summer sea ice
Collapse and melting of the Greenland ice sheet
Severe ocean acidification, collapse of phytoplankton populations,
and a sharp drop in the ability of the oceans to absorb CO2
Massive release of methane from thawing arctic permafrost
Collapse and melting of most of the western Antartic ice sheet
Severe shrinkage or collapse of Amazon rain forest

What Are Our Options?

There are three basic approaches to dealing with
the projected harmful effects of global climate
disruption: act to slow it, try to reduce some of its
harmful effects, or suffer.

Prevent and Reduce

Greenhouse Gas Emissions:
Four major prevention strategies that, by 2050, could reduce greenhouse
gas emissions by the 57-83% called for in a 2010 study by the US National
Academy of Sciences:
1. Improve energy efficiency to reduce fossil fuel use, especially the use of
coal. According to climate scientist James Hansen, phasing out coal use is
80% of the solution to the global warming crisis.
2. Shift from non-renewable carbon-based fossil fuels to a mix of low carbon
renewable energy resources based on local and regional availability.
3. Stop cutting down tropical forest and plant trees to help remove more
CO2 from the atmosphere.
4. Shifts to more sustainable and climate friendly agriculture.

Collect Greenhouse Gas Emissions

and Stash Them Somewhere:
Potential clean up strategies:
1. Implement, on an emergency basis, a massive, global tree-planting program, especially
on degraded land in the tropics.
2. Restore wetlands where they have been drained for farming. Wetlands are very efficient
at taking up CO2.
3. Plant large areas of degraded land with fast growing plants such as switchgrass, which
remove CO2 from the air and store in the soil.
4. Help the natural uptake and storage of carbon by preserving and restoring natural
forest.
5. Seeding the oceans with iron to promote the growth of more marine algae and other
phytoplankton, which absorb huge amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere as they grow.
6. Remove CO2 from the smoke stacks of coal burning power and industrial plants and
store it somewhere.

Some Promote Geoengineering

Schemes to Deal with Climate Change:
Geoengineering- trying to manipulate certain natural conditions to
help counter an enhanced greenhouse effect.
Scientists of suggested using balloons, large jet planes, or giant
cannons to inject sulfate particles into the stratosphere to essentially
cool the troposphere.
Another idea is to anchor huge vertical pipes in the oceans as part of
a system that would allow wave motion to pump nutrient rich water
from the deep ocean layer to fertilize algae on the ocean surface. The
resulting algae blooms would remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
Many argue such strategies are similar to gambling on a large scale,
are costly changes to the global environment, and have unknown
and potentially long-lasting harmful effects.

Governments Can Help to Reduce

the Threat of Climate Disruption:
Governments can use six major solutions:
1. Strictly regulate carbon dioxide and methane as air pollutants
2. Implementing carbon taxes and energy taxes- tax pollution, not
payrolls and profits
3. Place a cap on total human generated CO2 and CH4 emissions
4. Level the economic playing field
5. Technology transfer
6. Programs that will help to curb population growth

Individual Choices Make a

Difference:

Individual Choices Make a

Difference:

We Can Prepare for

Climate Disruption:
The world needs to make a 50-85% cut in
emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 to stabilize
concentration of these gases in the atmosphere.
While we work to slash emissions we should also
begin to prepare for the projected harmful effects
of projected climate disruption.

19-4 How Have We Depleted Ozone in

the Stratosphere and What Can We Do
about It?
Our widespread use of certain chemicals has
reduced ozone levels in the stratosphere, which
has allowed more harmful ultraviolet radiation to
reach the earth's surface.
To reverse ozone depletion, we must stop
producing ozone-depleting chemicals and adhere
to the international treaties that band such
chemicals.

Our Use of Certain Chemicals

Threatens the Ozone Layer:

A layer of ozone in the lower stratosphere keeps about 95% of

the sun's harmful ultraviolet radiation from reaching the earths
surface. However, measurements taken by meteorologist show a
considerable seasonal depletion of ozone concentrations in the
stratosphere.
CFCs, for example, are persistent chemicals that destroy
protective ozone in the stratosphere.
Other ozone-depleting chemicals and include halons and
hydrobromoflurocarbons, methyl bromide, hydrogen chloride,
carbon tetra chloride, methyl chloroform, propyl bromide and
hexachlorobutadiene.

Why Should We Worry

about Ozone Depletion?

We Can Reverse Stratospheric

Ozone Depletion:
We should immediately stop producing all ozone
depleting chemicals.
We should also stop the use of chemicals such as
CFCs and HFCs

Three Big Ideas:

Considerable scientific evidence indicates that the earths atmosphere
is warming, mostly because of human activities, and that this is likely
to lead to significant climate disruption during this century that could
have severe and long-lasting harmful consequences.
Reducing projected harmful effects of rapid climate disruption during
the century requires emergency action to increase energy efficiency,
sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions, rely more on renewable
energy resources, and slow population growth.
We need to continue phasing out the use of chemicals that have
reduced ozone levels in the stratosphere and allowed more harmful
ultraviolet radiation to reach the earth surface.